Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.3 #219
Expected Predictive Rating -3.6 #219
Pace 69.6 #158
Improvement +4.2 #30

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #205 C D+ C+ D C+
Defense #241 C- C B- C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #303 1.20 #115 -1.8 #250
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #281 0.62 #342 -3.0 #320
Three Pointers 50% #23 1.03 #167 +5.0 #39
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #164 +0.2 #169
Freethrows 0.26 #302 67% #330 0.18 #329
Second Chance 26.8% #289 1.03 #178 0.27 #263
Turnovers 15.8% #127
Total Offense -1.5 #205

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #325 1.26 #303 +2.0 #110
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #361 0.70 #89 +3.4 #3
Three Pointers 55% #2 1.02 #199 -7.5 #359
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #250 -2.1 #250
Freethrows 0.27 #94 73% #246 0.20 #115
Second Chance 28.5% #96 1.14 #320 0.33 #216
Turnovers 18.1% #91
Total Defense -1.8 #241

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #157 1.2% #279
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.1% #170 2.9% #236
Possession Length 17.2 #166 17.0 #141
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #205 0.18 #236
Improvement +4.6 #9 -0.4 #211

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.4% 15.3% 9.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 75.5% 80.8% 50.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.8% 97.8%
Conference Champion 15.4% 17.5% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.4% 1.2% 2.1%
First Round13.7% 14.7% 9.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Alabama (Home) - 82.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 32 - 32 - 9
Quad 414 - 616 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 29 @North Carolina L 54 - 94 3% -24  0 - 1 -22 -16 F B- F -3 C- F B+
 Tue, Nov 11 22 @Arkansas L 56 - 93 3% -16  0 - 2 -18 -14 F D A+ -2 C- A+ C-
 Sun, Nov 16 228 Samford L 77 - 84 OT 63% +3  0 - 3 -14 -7 D D- D+ -7 D B F+
 Thu, Nov 20 147 @North Texas L 56 - 74 25% -5  0 - 4 -14 -9 C- F F -6 B- B- D-
 Sun, Nov 23 245 Eastern Washington W 92 - 65 67% +20  1 - 4 +19 +11 A+ F C +8 B+ C- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 321 Eastern Illinois W 81 - 60 82% +16  2 - 4 +8 +14 A+ A+ C -4 D C- C+
 Sat, Nov 29 131 @East Tennessee St. L 57 - 80 22% -10  2 - 5 -18 -16 F C- C+ -2 F A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 3 292 Arkansas Little Rock W 85 - 47 76% +29  3 - 5 +27 +5 C+ D- C +22 A+ B A+
 Sun, Dec 7 311 @East Texas A&M L 68 - 75 60% -1  3 - 6 -13 -9 C- F B- -4 B F C
 Sat, Dec 13 12 @Vanderbilt L 72 - 83 2% -15  3 - 7 +11 +4 C C+ A- +7 A+ F A-
 Sun, Dec 21 39 @SMU L 82 - 99 4% -11  3 - 8 -1 +14 A A D -15 D- F B-
 Thu, Jan 1 223 Florida Gulf Coast W 85 - 83 62% -3  4 - 8 1 - 0 -4 +16 B A A+ -20 F C- C-
 Sat, Jan 3 329 Stetson W 93 - 73 83% +13  5 - 8 2 - 0 +7 +16 B+ A C -9 F D B+
 Thu, Jan 8 305 @Bellarmine L 78 - 84 OT 57% +0  5 - 9 2 - 1 -11 -8 F C- B+ -3 D D C
 Sat, Jan 10 265 @Eastern Kentucky L 75 - 79 OT 48% -1  5 - 10 2 - 2 -7 -3 C+ F D- -4 F C+ C
 Thu, Jan 15 295 Jacksonville W 62 - 60 76% -5  6 - 10 3 - 2 -9 -3 C- F+ C- -5 A+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 351 North Florida W 98 - 69 87% +23  7 - 10 4 - 2 +13 +10 B C B+ +3 C A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 22 325 @West Georgia W 86 - 65 65% +9  8 - 10 5 - 2 +14 +12 A+ F B+ +2 D F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 208 @Queens W 100 - 90 37% -1  9 - 10 6 - 2 +10 +17 A+ C B -8 F A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 265 Eastern Kentucky W 90 - 81 71% +8  10 - 10 7 - 2 +0 +3 C+ D A+ -3 F+ A+ B
 Wed, Feb 4 326 North Alabama W 79 - 69 83%
 Sat, Feb 7 178 @Lipscomb L 74 - 79 32%
 Mon, Feb 9 326 @North Alabama W 76 - 72 65%
 Thu, Feb 12 305 Bellarmine W 82 - 74 77%
 Sat, Feb 14 325 West Georgia W 81 - 71 82%
 Thu, Feb 19 329 @Stetson W 77 - 73 65%
 Sat, Feb 21 223 @Florida Gulf Coast L 75 - 78 39%
 Wed, Feb 25 175 @Austin Peay L 72 - 77 31%
 Sat, Feb 28 208 Queens W 82 - 79 60%
Totals 15 - 14 12 - 6 -3 -2 C D+ C+ -2 C- C B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.2 6.9 5.0 1.2 15.4 1st
2nd 0.3 4.2 13.3 8.3 0.9 27.0 2nd
3rd 0.5 6.0 13.9 8.4 0.6 29.4 3rd
4th 0.6 4.8 10.7 5.2 0.6 21.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 2.8 0.8 5.2 5th
6th 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.5 2.7 8.2 17.7 23.5 24.5 15.8 5.9 1.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 1.2    1.1 0.1
15-3 84.8% 5.0    3.1 1.8 0.1
14-4 43.5% 6.9    2.1 3.4 1.3 0.1
13-5 8.9% 2.2    0.1 0.8 1.0 0.3
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.4% 15.4 6.4 6.1 2.5 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.2% 30.6% 30.6% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.8
15-3 5.9% 25.8% 25.8% 14.6 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 4.4
14-4 15.8% 20.5% 20.5% 15.0 0.0 0.5 2.2 0.5 12.6
13-5 24.5% 15.8% 15.8% 15.2 0.0 0.3 2.3 1.2 20.6
12-6 23.5% 12.4% 12.4% 15.5 0.0 1.4 1.4 20.6
11-7 17.7% 10.0% 10.0% 15.6 0.6 1.1 15.9
10-8 8.2% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.6 7.7
9-9 2.7% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.1 2.5
8-10 0.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 15.2 85.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 13.7 5.6 33.3 51.4 9.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%