Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.2#338
Expected Predictive Rating-13.2#340
Pace69.1#176
Improvement-0.2#188

Offense
Total Offense-6.9#345
First Shot-5.4#327
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#278
Layup/Dunks-6.5#351
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#72
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#149
Freethrows-1.7#278
Improvement-0.1#182

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#306
First Shot-4.6#325
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#151
Layups/Dunks+4.3#45
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#73
3 Pt Jumpshots-11.9#363
Freethrows+1.6#72
Improvement-0.1#183
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 9.4% 17.7% 5.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 27.6% 15.3% 33.7%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Home) - 33.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 61 - 12
Quad 47 - 118 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 41   @ BYU L 50-88 2%     0 - 1 -23.6 -16.4 -7.9
  Nov 07, 2024 66   @ Utah L 63-98 3%     0 - 2 -23.9 -10.3 -10.2
  Nov 16, 2024 331   @ Western Illinois L 61-63 34%     0 - 3 -9.1 -6.6 -2.8
  Nov 21, 2024 270   Southeast Missouri St. L 73-77 OT 41%     0 - 4 -12.9 -10.8 -1.6
  Nov 24, 2024 176   UNC Asheville W 92-83 2OT 24%     1 - 4 +5.2 +1.6 +2.2
  Nov 30, 2024 112   @ Georgia Tech L 68-87 6%     1 - 5 -12.8 +4.6 -19.0
  Dec 04, 2024 244   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 57-63 18%     1 - 6 -7.6 -15.9 +8.6
  Dec 07, 2024 363   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 78-84 62%     1 - 7 -20.4 -5.4 -15.0
  Dec 14, 2024 31   @ Arkansas L 57-82 1%     1 - 8 -9.2 -3.2 -7.9
  Dec 16, 2024 354   The Citadel W 73-71 67%     2 - 8 -13.7 -8.1 -5.7
  Dec 22, 2024 35   @ Oklahoma L 66-89 2%     2 - 9 -7.7 -3.5 -3.3
  Jan 02, 2025 229   Eastern Kentucky L 72-77 33%    
  Jan 04, 2025 345   Bellarmine W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 09, 2025 348   @ Stetson L 72-74 42%    
  Jan 11, 2025 188   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 61-74 12%    
  Jan 16, 2025 207   @ North Florida L 73-85 14%    
  Jan 18, 2025 211   @ Jacksonville L 63-75 14%    
  Jan 23, 2025 283   Austin Peay L 64-66 44%    
  Jan 25, 2025 108   Lipscomb L 65-77 13%    
  Jan 29, 2025 341   West Georgia W 72-69 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 198   @ North Alabama L 66-78 13%    
  Feb 05, 2025 265   Queens L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 08, 2025 283   @ Austin Peay L 61-69 25%    
  Feb 13, 2025 211   Jacksonville L 66-72 30%    
  Feb 15, 2025 207   North Florida L 76-82 30%    
  Feb 18, 2025 265   @ Queens L 70-79 22%    
  Feb 20, 2025 341   @ West Georgia L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 24, 2025 198   North Alabama L 69-75 28%    
  Feb 26, 2025 108   @ Lipscomb L 62-80 5%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.5 1.3 0.1 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.3 2.4 0.2 0.0 11.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.4 7.1 3.6 0.4 0.0 16.3 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 5.3 8.1 4.0 0.5 0.0 19.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.7 5.7 7.5 3.7 0.6 0.0 19.4 11th
12th 0.8 2.9 5.5 5.2 2.3 0.4 0.0 17.0 12th
Total 0.8 3.1 7.2 12.1 15.8 17.0 14.8 11.8 8.1 4.9 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 90.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 38.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 15.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 3.2% 3.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.2% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.5% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
11-7 1.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1
10-8 2.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.5
9-9 4.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 4.9
8-10 8.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.1
7-11 11.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.8
6-12 14.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.8
5-13 17.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.0
4-14 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.8
3-15 12.1% 12.1
2-16 7.2% 7.2
1-17 3.1% 3.1
0-18 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%