Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.7 #261
Expected Predictive Rating -6.3 #259
Pace 70.0 #162
Improvement +2.0 #81

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #259 C- C C F C+
Defense #260 C D+ C B+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #274 1.21 #121 -1.3 #234
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #287 0.40 #364 -4.7 #355
Three Pointers 50% #29 0.98 #221 +3.9 #62
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #234 -2.1 #235
Freethrows 14.7 #312 66% #333 9.7 #332
Second Chance 27.7% #268 1.15 #69 0.32 #178
Turnovers 16.2% #150
Total Offense -2.9 #259

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #330 1.31 #328 +1.6 #122
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #349 0.62 #30 +3.5 #4
Three Pointers 55% #2 0.97 #143 -5.9 #349
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #209 -0.8 #204
Freethrows 13.4 #28 76% #326 10.2 #325
Second Chance 28.2% #98 1.28 #358 0.36 #279
Turnovers 17.1% #150
Total Defense -2.8 #260

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #136 0.7% #234
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.9% #253 1.0% #199
Possession Length 17.3 #171 16.6 #81
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #212 0.18 #214
Improvement +3.6 #17 -1.6 #281

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.6% 8.3% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 24.7% 38.5% 16.2%
.500 or above in Conference 69.4% 84.2% 60.3%
Conference Champion 5.0% 8.8% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.2% 1.8%
First Four3.1% 2.8% 3.3%
First Round5.1% 7.0% 4.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Away) - 38.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 412 - 713 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 26 @North Carolina L 54 - 94 2%  -24  0 - 1 -22 -14 F B+ F -5 D+ F B+
 Tue, Nov 11 19 @Arkansas L 56 - 93 2%  -16  0 - 2 -18 -13 F D A+ -2 D- A+ D
 Sun, Nov 16 229 Samford L 77 - 84 OT 54%  +3  0 - 3 -14 -6 D F C- -7 F B F
 Thu, Nov 20 133 @North Texas L 56 - 74 17%  -5  0 - 4 -13 -8 C- F F -5 B B F
 Sun, Nov 23 255 Eastern Washington W 92 - 65 61%  +20  1 - 4 +19 +10 A+ F B- +8 A- D A+
 Tue, Nov 25 309 Eastern Illinois W 81 - 60 72%  +16  2 - 4 +9 +14 A+ A+ D+ -3 C- D+ C
 Sat, Nov 29 128 @East Tennessee St. L 57 - 80 16%  -10  2 - 5 -18 -15 F C B- -2 F A+ D-
 Wed, Dec 3 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 85 - 47 68%  +29  3 - 5 +27 +6 C+ F C- +21 A+ B A+
 Sun, Dec 7 324 @East Texas A&M L 68 - 75 55%  -1  3 - 6 -14 -10 D+ F B- -4 A- F D+
 Sat, Dec 13 7 @Vanderbilt L 72 - 83 1%  -15  3 - 7 +12 +5 C B- A- +8 A+ F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 28 @SMU L 82 - 99 3%  -11  3 - 8 +0 +15 A+ A+ D -14 D- F B
 Thu, Jan 1 189 Florida Gulf Coast W 85 - 83 47%  -3  4 - 8 1 - 0 -3 +15 B+ A+ A+ -18 F C- C-
 Sat, Jan 3 337 Stetson W 93 - 73 80%  +13  5 - 8 2 - 0 +6 +15 C+ A+ C+ -9 F D- A
 Thu, Jan 8 280 @Bellarmine L 78 - 84 OT 42%  +0  5 - 9 2 - 1 -10 -5 F C A -4 D+ D- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 254 @Eastern Kentucky L 76 - 79 38% 
 Thu, Jan 15 328 Jacksonville W 73 - 65 77% 
 Sat, Jan 17 350 North Florida W 87 - 77 82% 
 Thu, Jan 22 297 @West Georgia L 75 - 76 46% 
 Sat, Jan 24 293 @North Alabama L 72 - 73 46% 
 Wed, Jan 28 207 @Queens L 77 - 83 28% 
 Sat, Jan 31 254 Eastern Kentucky W 79 - 76 61% 
 Wed, Feb 4 293 North Alabama W 75 - 70 67% 
 Sat, Feb 7 177 @Lipscomb L 72 - 79 24% 
 Thu, Feb 12 280 Bellarmine W 79 - 75 65% 
 Sat, Feb 14 297 West Georgia W 78 - 73 68% 
 Thu, Feb 19 337 @Stetson W 76 - 73 61% 
 Sat, Feb 21 189 @Florida Gulf Coast L 74 - 81 27% 
 Wed, Feb 25 186 @Austin Peay L 70 - 77 26% 
 Sat, Feb 28 207 Queens L 80 - 81 49% 
Totals 13 - 16 10 - 8 -6 -3 C- C C -3 C D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 5.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.3 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 8.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.5 4.5 1.3 0.1 11.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.8 6.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 13.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 4.0 8.0 2.8 0.2 15.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.7 7.3 3.5 0.3 14.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 5.8 3.9 0.4 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.8 3.8 0.7 0.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.1 0.8 0.0 6.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 0.7 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 5.3 9.0 13.5 16.6 17.5 14.8 10.4 6.2 2.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 96.3% 0.3    0.2 0.0
15-3 88.9% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 61.5% 1.7    0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 27.3% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.8% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 2.2 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 31.5% 31.5% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.9% 20.5% 20.5% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-4 2.7% 17.7% 17.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 2.2
13-5 6.2% 14.6% 14.6% 15.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 5.3
12-6 10.4% 11.3% 11.3% 15.7 0.3 0.9 9.2
11-7 14.8% 8.3% 8.3% 15.8 0.2 1.0 13.6
10-8 17.5% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.0 1.2 16.3
9-9 16.6% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.8 15.8
8-10 13.5% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.3 13.1
7-11 9.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 8.9
6-12 5.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 5.2
5-13 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.0
4-14 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 15.7 93.4 0.0%