Chattanooga
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#172
Expected Predictive Rating-0.6#174
Pace67.1#228
Improvement+2.3#64

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#134
First Shot+2.4#103
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#246
Layup/Dunks+1.2#137
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#329
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#37
Freethrows-1.1#250
Improvement+1.1#104

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#232
First Shot-2.6#260
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#139
Layups/Dunks+1.7#108
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#340
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#294
Freethrows+1.4#81
Improvement+1.2#98
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.8% 11.5% 7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 79.9% 88.7% 70.2%
.500 or above in Conference 77.9% 87.4% 67.4%
Conference Champion 10.7% 15.5% 5.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 0.9%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round9.7% 11.5% 7.8%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercer (Away) - 52.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 54 - 10
Quad 413 - 317 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 71   @ USC L 51-77 14%     0 - 1 -15.2 -13.0 -3.6
  Nov 07, 2024 53   @ St. Mary's L 74-86 10%     0 - 2 +1.3 +14.6 -14.4
  Nov 11, 2024 283   @ Austin Peay L 61-67 61%     0 - 3 -9.6 -5.5 -4.6
  Nov 14, 2024 276   Morehead St. W 76-62 80%     1 - 3 +4.6 -2.5 +6.9
  Nov 17, 2024 270   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 87-82 59%     2 - 3 +2.2 +3.4 -1.9
  Nov 25, 2024 317   Tennessee St. W 85-78 85%     3 - 3 -4.9 -0.4 -5.1
  Nov 27, 2024 185   Bryant W 84-76 64%     4 - 3 +3.8 +11.2 -7.2
  Dec 03, 2024 109   Lipscomb L 62-80 43%     4 - 4 -16.8 -6.9 -10.7
  Dec 12, 2024 315   @ Evansville W 75-67 69%     5 - 4 +2.2 +4.6 -2.0
  Dec 15, 2024 360   Alabama A&M W 85-63 93%     6 - 4 +4.7 +15.0 -7.4
  Dec 21, 2024 51   @ Indiana L 65-74 10%     6 - 5 +4.5 +0.8 +3.4
  Jan 01, 2025 235   @ Mercer W 77-76 52%    
  Jan 04, 2025 354   @ The Citadel W 74-65 80%    
  Jan 09, 2025 161   UNC Greensboro W 70-68 59%    
  Jan 11, 2025 344   VMI W 81-67 90%    
  Jan 15, 2025 151   Wofford W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 18, 2025 113   @ Furman L 67-74 27%    
  Jan 22, 2025 118   Samford L 81-82 48%    
  Jan 25, 2025 142   @ East Tennessee St. L 70-75 34%    
  Jan 29, 2025 311   @ Western Carolina W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 01, 2025 235   Mercer W 80-73 73%    
  Feb 05, 2025 151   @ Wofford L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 08, 2025 113   Furman L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 12, 2025 118   @ Samford L 79-85 28%    
  Feb 15, 2025 142   East Tennessee St. W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 19, 2025 311   Western Carolina W 79-68 84%    
  Feb 22, 2025 354   The Citadel W 77-62 91%    
  Feb 27, 2025 161   @ UNC Greensboro L 67-71 38%    
  Mar 01, 2025 344   @ VMI W 78-70 76%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.6 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 10.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.0 5.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 13.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.9 6.6 2.3 0.2 0.0 14.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 5.1 7.0 2.3 0.1 15.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.3 6.9 2.4 0.2 16.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.0 5.5 2.1 0.1 0.0 14.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.3 3.3 1.1 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.6 6.2 9.9 13.0 15.0 15.2 13.5 10.1 6.2 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
16-2 97.9% 1.3    1.2 0.1
15-3 87.0% 2.8    2.0 0.7 0.0
14-4 58.4% 3.6    1.7 1.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 22.0% 2.2    0.4 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.7% 10.7 5.7 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 37.5% 37.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 29.4% 29.4% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.3% 31.4% 31.4% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9
15-3 3.2% 25.2% 25.2% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.4
14-4 6.2% 22.5% 22.5% 13.6 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 4.8
13-5 10.1% 16.3% 16.3% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 8.5
12-6 13.5% 13.1% 13.1% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.0 11.7
11-7 15.2% 9.4% 9.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.0 13.7
10-8 15.0% 6.7% 6.7% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 14.0
9-9 13.0% 5.3% 5.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 12.3
8-10 9.9% 3.5% 3.5% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 9.5
7-11 6.2% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.0
6-12 3.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 3.5
5-13 1.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-14 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.7 3.0 0.7 90.2 0.0%