Chattanooga
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -6.3 274
Results Rating -8.0 293
Pace 66.5 236
Improvement +4.4 33

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 236 C- D- B- C- C-
Defense D+ 293 C D D- D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 336 C 58% 166 -4.1 322
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 233 B- 42% 59 +0.4 149
Three Pointers 49% 30 D+ 32% 262 +2.9 84
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 235 C -0.5 189
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 199
Second Chance F 20.6% 360 B- 1.10 81 D- 0.23 345
Turnovers B- 15.7% 111
Freethrows D+ 0.27 283 B 76% 73 C- 0.21 231
Total Offense C- -2.3 236

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 49% 166 C+ 10.5% 147
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 17% 300 B+ 2.5% 30
Three Pointers B- 87% 119 C 0.9% 191
Total C+ 57% 142 B 4.2% 41

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 208 C 58% 190 -0.3 166
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 264 B- 35% 79 -1.5 68
Three Pointers 44% 82 C- 35% 243 +2.5 298
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 223 C +0.4 197
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 200
Second Chance D+ 32.8% 285 D- 1.14 324 D 0.38 322
Turnovers D- 13.7% 340
Freethrows D 0.35 317 C+ 72% 137 D 0.25 305
Total Defense D+ -3.9 293

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 162 D+ 8.9% 254
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 28% 227 D- 1.8% 333
Three Pointers D+ 87% 285 C- 0.8% 183
Total C- 59% 252 D 4.0% 307

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 166 17.6 242
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 221 0.20 268
Improvement +2.6 #76 +1.8 #93

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 292 271 249
Results Rating Rank 311 290 266
Conference Record 7 - 11 8 - 10 8 - 10
Conference Finish 8 7 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 2% 2%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UNC Greensboro (Home) - 67.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 42 - 8
Quad 49 - 1012 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 40 @St. Mary's L 66 - 87 3% -12  1% 0 - 1 C- -5 C+ +2 B+ D- F+ D- -8 F A A
 Sat, Nov 8 118 @UNLV L 69 - 101 13% -11  3% 0 - 2 F -26 D+ -4 B- F C F -23 F+ F F+
 Sat, Nov 15 251 @Florida Gulf Coast L 73 - 91 34% -13  1% 0 - 3 F -20 D+ -4 D- F B- F -17 D- F F
 Wed, Nov 19 357 @South Carolina St. W 78 - 66 72% +8  92% 1 - 3 C -0 D -4 F C C B +4 A+ F F
 Sat, Nov 22 342 North Alabama W 71 - 57 80% +6  69% 2 - 3 C -1 C- -1 C- B F B- +2 D+ C B-
 Sun, Nov 30 224 Tennessee St. L 64 - 70 51% -8  0% 2 - 4 D- -13 F -12 F D A+ C -1 B+ F+ F+
 Sat, Dec 6 222 Southeast Missouri St. L 70 - 74 51% +1  53% 2 - 5 D -10 C- -2 B D+ C- F+ -9 D- F C-
 Sat, Dec 13 33 Auburn L 78 - 92 4% -7  0% 2 - 6 C +1 B +6 C+ D A+ D -5 F+ F A
 Wed, Dec 17 285 @Bellarmine L 64 - 79 43% +1  61% 2 - 7 F -19 F -19 F F A C -1 C C+ B-
 Sun, Dec 21 310 @Alabama A&M W 73 - 66 48% +4  78% 3 - 7 C +1 C+ +2 C+ D B+ C -0 C+ D F
 Thu, Jan 1 301 @UNC Greensboro L 72 - 77 46% -1  35% 3 - 8 0 - 1 D -10 D- -6 B- F C D+ -4 D F B
 Sat, Jan 3 358 @VMI L 71 - 79 75% -8  0% 3 - 9 0 - 2 F -21 F -12 F F+ C- F+ -9 F D C+
 Wed, Jan 7 175 Furman L 67 - 78 41% -5  29% 3 - 10 0 - 3 F+ -15 D- -8 C F+ D- D- -7 C+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 10 190 Samford W 88 - 79 45% +14  98% 4 - 10 1 - 3 C+ +4 B- +5 C F+ A+ C -1 D A- D
 Wed, Jan 14 238 @Wofford W 76 - 67 31% -2  26% 5 - 10 2 - 3 B- +8 C- -1 B+ F C+ A +9 B A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 247 @Western Carolina W 90 - 82 33% -3  33% 6 - 10 3 - 3 B- +6 A+ +18 A+ C A F -11 F+ C+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 131 East Tennessee St. L 66 - 67 31% -2  19% 6 - 11 3 - 4 C- -2 D- -7 C+ F D+ B+ +5 A+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 24 190 @Samford L 64 - 75 24% -1  37% 6 - 12 3 - 5 D -10 D -4 C- D- B D- -7 C+ C F
 Thu, Jan 29 238 Wofford L 55 - 81 54% -13  10% 6 - 13 3 - 6 F -33 F -24 F F C F -11 D+ D- F
 Sun, Feb 1 175 @Furman L 70 - 75 22% -12  3% 6 - 14 3 - 7 C- -3 C +1 D A- D D+ -5 C- F C-
 Thu, Feb 5 178 Mercer W 79 - 75 41% -1  32% 7 - 14 4 - 7 C -0 D+ -3 A+ F F B- +3 A+ C+ D
 Sat, Feb 7 348 The Citadel L 71 - 78 82% -2  11% 7 - 15 4 - 8 F -23 F -10 F C+ D- F -13 F F F
 Wed, Feb 11 131 @East Tennessee St. L 61 - 73 15% -4  6% 7 - 16 4 - 9 D+ -7 F+ -8 F D+ A C+ +1 A+ C+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 247 Western Carolina L 76 - 81 56% -10  1% 7 - 17 4 - 10 D- -13 D -4 C- B A- F+ -9 C+ F D
 Thu, Feb 19 178 @Mercer W 94 - 90 22% +2  67% 8 - 17 5 - 10 B- +6 A+ +25 A+ B A F -19 F D+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 348 @The Citadel W 93 - 72 65% +18  95% 9 - 17 6 - 10 B +11 A- +10 A+ C- F C+ +0 B D+ F
 Thu, Feb 26 301 UNC Greensboro W 79 - 74 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 358 VMI W 81 - 68 89%
Totals 11 - 17 8 - 10 -6 C- -2 A+ C C- D+ -4 D+ B C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C B- D+ C 31% 33% 49% C- C- F B- D- B- D+ B C- D+ C B- C- C 38% 18% 44% C- C D+ D- D D- D C+ D
1.05 58% 42% 32% 0 0 1.00 21% 1.1 .23 16% .27 76% .21 1.14 58% 35% 35% 0 0 1.03 33% 1.1 .38 14% .35 72% .20
Nov
7		 St. Mary's C+ A- B+ D+ A- 29% 29% 42% D- B+ D F D- F+ A+ A- A+ D- C F F F 40% 23% 37% B- F A+ B A A F F F
0.98 64% 43% 30% +1 -2 1.00 19% 0.7 .13 19% .35 79% .28 1.29 59% 60% 50% +14 0 1.30 29% 1.0 .29 21% .54 93% .51
Nov
8		 UNLV D+ A+ A+ F+ B 29% 21% 50% D+ B- F B F C F A F+ F F D+ C F 41% 18% 41% C- F+ F F F F+ F D+ F
1.02 71% 50% 29% +3 -1 1.06 16% 1.2 .19 18% .27 80% .21 1.49 80% 44% 35% +11 0 1.24 52% 1.4 .71 12% .62 73% .45
Nov
15		 Florida Gulf Coast D+ D D D- F+ 42% 6% 52% A- D- F F F B- A+ D- A+ F F F B- D- 34% 28% 38% C D- F F F F C+ F D+
1.06 52% 33% 31% -5 +2 0.96 21% 0.7 .15 14% .51 70% .35 1.32 70% 50% 32% +6 -1 1.12 39% 1.4 .55 12% .25 87% .21
Nov
19		 South Carolina St. D B+ F+ F+ F+ 30% 21% 49% F F D- A+ C C A+ C A+ B F A+ A+ A+ 16% 37% 47% A- A+ C- F F F F B F
1.08 69% 33% 29% -2 -1 0.98 31% 1.5 .46 17% .58 71% .41 0.91 75% 5% 25% -16 -4 0.63 30% 2.0 .60 14% .54 62% .34
Nov
22		 North Alabama C- C+ A+ D+ C- 27% 15% 58% D C- A- D+ B F C D+ C- B- D A C+ D 36% 19% 45% B- D+ C C+ C B- D A+ B-
1.18 62% 57% 32% +2 0 1.06 42% 1.1 .45 20% .29 71% .21 0.94 60% 25% 32% -3 0 0.95 30% 1.0 .30 20% .35 53% .19
Nov
30		 Tennessee St. F F+ F F F 35% 4% 62% B- F F A+ D A+ F A+ F C A A- C+ A- 43% 26% 30% D B+ B+ F F+ F+ C+ F D
0.98 50% 0% 28% -10 +2 0.87 17% 1.7 .28 11% .24 86% .21 1.07 48% 29% 31% -8 0 0.85 26% 1.6 .41 12% .26 93% .24
Dec
6		 Southeast Missouri St. C- C- A A+ B+ 48% 22% 30% C B F A+ D+ C- F C+ F+ F+ D+ B+ D- F+ 35% 19% 46% B- D- D- F F C- A+ A+ A+
1.06 55% 50% 43% +5 +1 1.13 16% 1.8 .28 18% .31 76% .24 1.12 61% 30% 38% +2 0 1.06 32% 1.4 .44 17% .16 56% .09
Dec
13		 Auburn B F A+ B- B- 33% 31% 35% D- C+ F A+ D A+ B A+ A D F F F+ F 16% 26% 58% A+ F+ F+ D+ F A F D+ F
1.11 44% 53% 37% +2 -2 1.02 13% 1.8 .22 9% .31 85% .27 1.31 86% 55% 40% +14 -2 1.26 47% 1.1 .53 19% .65 78% .51
Dec
17		 Bellarmine F A+ B F F 7% 16% 77% F+ F F F F A F+ A- D C C- A+ F C 39% 12% 49% C+ C D- A+ C+ B- F F F
0.94 100% 44% 23% -9 -2 0.81 24% 0.9 .22 10% .25 80% .20 1.17 63% 17% 42% +5 +1 1.14 24% 0.9 .21 18% .39 86% .34
Dec
21		 Alabama A&M C+ D+ C+ A C+ 33% 17% 50% C- C+ F A+ D B+ D D+ D C C+ B+ A- B 43% 20% 37% F+ C+ C+ F D F F C F+
1.14 56% 38% 42% +5 0 1.13 16% 1.6 .25 13% .29 69% .20 1.04 52% 30% 28% -8 0 0.88 23% 1.3 .31 13% .41 74% .30
Jan
1		 UNC Greensboro D- A+ A+ D+ B- 25% 15% 60% C B- F F F C F F F D+ C- F B+ D 40% 19% 40% D- D F B F B F C+ F
1.07 79% 63% 33% +8 0 1.18 16% 0.4 .06 13% .16 56% .09 1.15 59% 63% 29% +2 0 1.07 41% 0.9 .38 18% .56 68% .38
Jan
3		 VMI F C F F F 33% 27% 41% D F F A+ F+ C- A+ A+ A+ F+ F D C- F 24% 11% 65% C F F B D C+ F C- F
1.02 63% 31% 25% -6 -1 0.88 21% 1.4 .29 17% .42 83% .35 1.14 73% 40% 33% +3 0 1.09 33% 0.8 .28 17% .50 72% .36
Jan
7		 Furman D- F F A C 27% 18% 55% C- C D F F+ D- F B F D- B A+ F B- 45% 8% 47% D- C+ D+ F F D- F+ F F
0.98 40% 30% 40% -1 0 0.98 26% 0.7 .18 17% .14 75% .11 1.14 55% 0% 39% -1 +2 1.04 31% 1.4 .44 16% .35 75% .26
Jan
10		 Samford B- D+ C+ B+ C- 50% 20% 30% A C F A+ F+ A+ B+ A+ A+ C F A+ C+ D 42% 17% 42% D- D A+ D- A- D F A F
1.20 53% 42% 39% +1 +1 1.05 9% 2.0 .18 4% .34 92% .31 1.08 77% 11% 32% +2 +1 1.08 14% 1.2 .17 11% .55 61% .34
Jan
14		 Wofford C- C A+ A A- 38% 14% 48% C B+ F F F C+ B- D- C A A- A+ C- B 35% 17% 48% B- B A- A+ A+ F F+ A D+
1.10 58% 57% 42% +8 +1 1.20 14% 0.8 .10 15% .32 74% .24 0.97 47% 22% 35% -6 0 0.91 23% 0.3 .08 10% .40 64% .26
Jan
17		 Western Carolina A+ B- F A+ A+ 32% 8% 60% B A+ F+ A+ C A C+ A+ A F A F F F 40% 23% 37% C+ F+ D- A C+ F F+ A D+
1.38 63% 25% 50% +15 +1 1.34 21% 1.4 .29 11% .33 95% .31 1.26 43% 67% 42% +5 0 1.12 39% 0.8 .32 9% .36 62% .22
Jan
21		 East Tennessee St. D- D+ A+ C C 41% 6% 53% B+ C+ F F F D+ F A+ D B+ B+ D+ A+ A+ 52% 13% 35% F+ A+ F F F D+ A+ B A+
0.98 55% 67% 35% +1 +2 1.08 19% 0.5 .10 21% .21 91% .19 1.00 52% 43% 17% -12 +2 0.83 34% 1.4 .47 15% .19 73% .14
Jan
24		 Samford D F B C+ D+ 24% 20% 56% C+ C- F A+ D- B A F B D- A F B B+ 40% 4% 56% F C+ C D+ C F F B+ F
1.03 45% 44% 36% 0 -1 1.00 15% 1.4 .21 11% .38 67% .25 1.21 47% 100% 30% -5 +2 0.96 24% 1.1 .26 6% .62 64% .40
Jan
29		 Wofford F D+ C- F F 35% 16% 49% D+ F D- F F C B F D- F C+ A D- C- 48% 13% 39% D D+ F B+ D- F C A- B-
0.83 53% 38% 21% -12 0 0.80 24% 0.7 .17 15% .34 58% .20 1.22 54% 29% 38% -1 +2 1.04 41% 0.8 .34 9% .33 65% .22
Feb
1		 Furman C F+ B+ D- D+ 25% 22% 53% D+ D B A- A- D B B B+ D+ B F D+ C 50% 11% 39% D- C- B F F C- F F F
1.06 46% 45% 30% -5 -1 0.90 36% 1.2 .42 17% .29 75% .22 1.14 55% 60% 35% +1 +2 1.09 26% 1.6 .41 18% .39 76% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Mercer D+ A+ F A+ A+ 36% 18% 47% C A+ F F F F A+ C A+ B- A- A+ B A+ 37% 26% 37% B- A+ F A+ C+ D F D F
1.09 81% 25% 48% +15 0 1.33 14% 0.7 .10 24% .45 76% .34 1.04 50% 18% 31% -10 -1 0.81 42% 0.8 .32 14% .69 77% .53
Feb
7		 The Citadel F C+ B+ F F 31% 20% 48% D- F D+ A- C+ D- F A- F F F D A F 40% 10% 50% F F A- F F F B F C-
1.04 65% 45% 27% -2 0 0.98 29% 1.2 .35 18% .14 75% .11 1.15 76% 40% 27% +2 +2 1.10 21% 1.8 .39 13% .22 85% .19
Feb
11		 East Tennessee St. F+ F F F+ F 37% 16% 47% C F F A+ D+ A F A D- C+ A A+ B+ A+ 47% 17% 36% D+ A+ B D C+ F F B- F
0.92 47% 25% 29% -9 +1 0.84 15% 1.6 .24 15% .21 83% .18 1.10 45% 25% 29% -11 +1 0.83 23% 1.2 .28 8% .57 74% .43
Feb
14		 Western Carolina D C A+ D- C 30% 25% 46% D C- F+ A+ B A- F A+ F F+ A D- C C+ 35% 18% 47% C- C+ F D- F D F F F
1.10 59% 64% 31% +4 -1 1.09 21% 1.7 .34 12% .10 100% .10 1.18 44% 44% 33% -4 0 0.94 47% 1.1 .53 15% .42 80% .34
Feb
19		 Mercer A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 22% 42% C- A+ B- B+ B A B A- B+ F D F+ F F 35% 18% 47% C- F A- F D+ F F A+ D+
1.45 72% 64% 48% +19 0 1.40 36% 1.1 .40 12% .30 82% .25 1.39 65% 44% 52% +16 0 1.35 27% 1.3 .36 9% .46 59% .27
Feb
21		 The Citadel A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 16% 54% D A+ F A+ C- F C A B- C+ B A+ B- B+ 22% 11% 67% C- B F A- D+ F F A+ D-
1.29 80% 63% 48% +22 0 1.46 23% 1.4 .32 19% .29 76% .22 1.00 50% 0% 31% -9 0 0.83 38% 0.8 .29 12% .51 44% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 14.4 14.4 6th
7th 38.4 38.4 7th
8th 3.1 35.1 7.8 46.0 8th
9th 0.8 0.4 1.2 9th
10th 10th
Total 3.9 35.5 60.6 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 60.6% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 1.5 59.1
7-11 35.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.6 35.0
6-12 3.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 3.9
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 16.0 97.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.6%
Lose Out 1.2%