Chattanooga
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -6.5 #273
Expected Predictive Rating -10.7 #324
Pace 66.5 #252
Improvement -0.1 #186

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #243 C- F B- C- D+
Defense #301 D+ F C- D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #347 1.13 #216 -5.4 #334
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #189 0.81 #108 +0.3 #164
Three Pointers 50% #24 0.95 #260 +3.1 #87
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #228 -2.0 #229
Freethrows 15.6 #276 74% #132 11.6 #240
Second Chance 18.8% #363 1.08 #142 0.20 #355
Turnovers 15.6% #116
Total Offense -2.5 #243

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #285 1.28 #316 +0.0 #184
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #211 0.69 #106 +1.0 #125
Three Pointers 46% #54 1.08 #273 -4.0 #323
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #274 -3.0 #275
Freethrows 19.3 #282 73% #206 14.1 #77
Second Chance 34.2% #298 1.23 #341 0.42 #348
Turnovers 15.6% #240
Total Defense -4.0 #301

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #255 -0.2% #153
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.9% #219 6.2% #293
Possession Length 17.7 #216 17.9 #288
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #297 0.18 #199
Improvement -2.3 #316 +2.2 #59

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.4% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 3.4% 5.6% 1.1%
.500 or above in Conference 21.4% 31.3% 10.9%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 8.2% 4.2% 12.3%
First Four2.0% 2.4% 1.5%
First Round1.7% 2.4% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Samford (Home) - 51.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 72 - 10
Quad 49 - 911 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 41 @St. Mary's L 66 - 87 3%  -12  0 - 1 -6 +3 A- F F -9 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 142 @UNLV L 69 - 101 16%  -11  0 - 2 -28 +1 A- F B- -30 F F F
 Sat, Nov 15 189 @Florida Gulf Coast L 73 - 91 24%  -13  0 - 3 -17 -1 D- F B -16 C- F F
 Wed, Nov 19 357 @South Carolina St. W 78 - 66 70%  +8  1 - 3 +0 -1 D- C C- +1 A+ F F
 Sat, Nov 22 293 North Alabama W 71 - 57 65%  +6  2 - 3 +4 +5 C+ B F +1 D- B- A-
 Sun, Nov 30 219 Tennessee St. L 64 - 70 49%  -8  2 - 4 -12 -6 F D+ A+ -6 C+ F F
 Sat, Dec 6 218 Southeast Missouri St. L 70 - 74 49%  +1  2 - 5 -10 -1 B D- C -9 D D C
 Sat, Dec 13 33 Auburn L 78 - 92 4%  -7  2 - 6 -0 +8 C+ F A+ -8 D- F A+
 Wed, Dec 17 280 @Bellarmine L 64 - 79 39%  +1  2 - 7 -19 -13 F F A+ -7 C+ C- C
 Sun, Dec 21 303 @Alabama A&M W 73 - 66 44%  +4  3 - 7 +2 +6 C D- A+ -3 C C- F
 Thu, Jan 1 284 @UNC Greensboro L 72 - 77 40%  -1  3 - 8 0 - 1 -9 -2 B F C- -7 D- F B
 Sat, Jan 3 332 @VMI L 71 - 79 55%  -8  3 - 9 0 - 2 -16 -6 F F C- -9 F C- B-
 Wed, Jan 7 150 Furman L 67 - 78 35%  -5  3 - 10 0 - 3 -14 -6 C+ F F -8 B- F D
 Sat, Jan 10 229 Samford W 74 - 73 52% 
 Wed, Jan 14 223 @Wofford L 72 - 78 28% 
 Sat, Jan 17 283 @Western Carolina L 74 - 77 40% 
 Wed, Jan 21 128 East Tennessee St. L 69 - 74 31% 
 Sat, Jan 24 229 @Samford L 71 - 77 30% 
 Thu, Jan 29 223 Wofford L 74 - 75 49% 
 Sun, Feb 1 150 @Furman L 67 - 77 18% 
 Thu, Feb 5 160 Mercer L 75 - 78 39% 
 Sat, Feb 7 360 The Citadel W 78 - 66 86% 
 Wed, Feb 11 128 @East Tennessee St. L 66 - 77 15% 
 Sat, Feb 14 283 Western Carolina W 77 - 74 63% 
 Thu, Feb 19 160 @Mercer L 72 - 81 20% 
 Sat, Feb 21 360 @The Citadel W 75 - 69 70% 
 Thu, Feb 26 284 UNC Greensboro W 77 - 74 62% 
 Sat, Feb 28 332 VMI W 78 - 71 74% 
Totals 10 - 18 7 - 11 -6 -2 C- F B- -4 D+ F C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 2.9 1.1 0.1 5.5 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 4.8 2.2 0.2 9.5 5th
6th 0.3 3.1 6.9 3.9 0.4 14.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.7 8.8 5.4 0.7 20.4 7th
8th 0.2 2.2 7.0 9.5 5.2 0.9 0.0 25.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.8 5.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 17.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.6 4.1 9.0 13.8 16.7 17.7 15.3 10.7 6.3 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 77.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 36.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 8.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.3% 26.3% 26.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 1.1% 17.9% 17.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9
11-7 3.0% 6.7% 6.7% 15.6 0.1 0.1 2.8
10-8 6.3% 6.6% 6.6% 15.9 0.0 0.4 5.8
9-9 10.7% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5 10.3
8-10 15.3% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.5 14.9
7-11 17.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.3 17.3
6-12 16.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 16.5
5-13 13.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.7
4-14 9.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.9
3-15 4.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.1
2-16 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.6
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 15.9 97.4 0.0%