Chattanooga
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.3 #275
Expected Predictive Rating -8.7 #302
Pace 66.5 #242
Improvement +2.4 #83

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #255 C- F+ B- C- C
Defense #280 C- D- D D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #338 1.12 #228 -4.8 #333
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #219 0.82 #83 -0.3 #194
Three Pointers 51% #20 0.95 #264 +3.3 #70
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #231 -1.8 #230
Freethrows 0.28 #263 75% #100 0.21 #224
Second Chance 19.4% #364 1.03 #174 0.20 #358
Turnovers 15.3% #98
Total Offense -3.1 #255

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #217 1.18 #219 +0.1 #172
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #233 0.74 #142 +0.9 #123
Three Pointers 44% #92 1.07 #258 -2.6 #294
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #231 -1.7 #233
Freethrows 0.34 #301 73% #235 0.25 #299
Second Chance 33.1% #284 1.16 #329 0.38 #330
Turnovers 14.4% #317
Total Defense -3.3 #280

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #220 0.4% #198
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.2% #229 2.8% #232
Possession Length 17.4 #188 17.8 #278
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #235 0.19 #243
Improvement -0.9 #232 +3.2 #34

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 3.3% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.6% 1.5% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 16.8% 35.3% 6.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.3% 1.8%
First Four1.8% 2.5% 1.5%
First Round1.4% 2.5% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercer (Home) - 35.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 52 - 9
Quad 49 - 1011 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 42 @St. Mary's L 66 - 87 3% -12  0 - 1 -6 +4 B F+ F+ -11 F A A-
 Sat, Nov 8 128 @UNLV L 69 - 101 15% -11  0 - 2 -27 +0 B- F C+ -28 F F F
 Sat, Nov 15 223 @Florida Gulf Coast L 73 - 91 28% -13  0 - 3 -18 -0 D F B -18 D F F
 Wed, Nov 19 359 @South Carolina St. W 78 - 66 71% +8  1 - 3 +0 -2 D- C C- +2 A+ F F
 Sat, Nov 22 326 North Alabama W 71 - 57 75% +6  2 - 3 +1 +2 C C+ F +1 D+ C+ B
 Sun, Nov 30 230 Tennessee St. L 64 - 70 52% -8  2 - 4 -13 -8 F D A+ -5 B F+ F+
 Sat, Dec 6 238 Southeast Missouri St. L 70 - 74 54% +1  2 - 5 -11 -1 B- D+ C -11 D F C
 Sat, Dec 13 28 Auburn L 78 - 92 3% -7  2 - 6 +2 +10 C+ D A+ -9 D- F A
 Wed, Dec 17 305 @Bellarmine L 64 - 79 46% +1  2 - 7 -20 -15 F F A+ -6 C- C C+
 Sun, Dec 21 293 @Alabama A&M W 73 - 66 43% +4  3 - 7 +2 +6 C+ D A- -3 C+ D F
 Thu, Jan 1 312 @UNC Greensboro L 72 - 77 49% -1  3 - 8 0 - 1 -11 -3 B- F C- -8 F+ F+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 356 @VMI L 71 - 79 68% -8  3 - 9 0 - 2 -19 -8 F F+ C- -11 F C- C
 Wed, Jan 7 164 Furman L 67 - 78 38% -5  3 - 10 0 - 3 -14 -6 C F D- -8 C+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 10 228 Samford W 88 - 79 52% +14  4 - 10 1 - 3 +2 +6 C F A+ -4 D- B+ D+
 Wed, Jan 14 200 @Wofford W 76 - 67 26% -2  5 - 10 2 - 3 +9 +2 A- F C+ +7 B- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 277 @Western Carolina W 90 - 82 39% -3  6 - 10 3 - 3 +5 +20 A+ C A- -15 F+ C F
 Wed, Jan 21 131 East Tennessee St. L 66 - 67 31% -2  6 - 11 3 - 4 -2 -6 C F D+ +3 A+ F C
 Sat, Jan 24 228 @Samford L 64 - 75 30% -1  6 - 12 3 - 5 -12 -3 D+ D- B- -10 C C- F
 Thu, Jan 29 200 Wofford L 55 - 81 47% -13  6 - 13 3 - 6 -32 -20 F F C -13 D+ D+ F
 Sun, Feb 1 164 @Furman L 70 - 75 20% -12  6 - 14 3 - 7 -2 +3 D+ B D+ -6 C- F D+
 Thu, Feb 5 148 Mercer L 76 - 80 35%
 Sat, Feb 7 344 The Citadel W 74 - 66 79%
 Wed, Feb 11 131 @East Tennessee St. L 66 - 77 14%
 Sat, Feb 14 277 Western Carolina W 79 - 76 62%
 Thu, Feb 19 148 @Mercer L 73 - 83 17%
 Sat, Feb 21 344 @The Citadel W 71 - 69 59%
 Thu, Feb 26 312 UNC Greensboro W 78 - 72 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 356 VMI W 79 - 68 85%
Totals 10 - 18 7 - 11 -6 -3 C- F+ B- -3 C- D- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.2 2.0 4th
5th 0.3 5.6 8.4 1.7 0.0 16.1 5th
6th 0.1 5.7 13.4 3.9 0.1 23.1 6th
7th 0.0 3.3 16.3 6.0 0.4 25.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 9.8 5.9 0.2 16.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 6.9 6.1 0.5 15.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 10th
Total 0.2 1.9 7.9 19.3 28.6 25.3 13.2 3.2 0.4 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.4% 8.9% 8.9% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
10-8 3.2% 7.0% 7.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.9
9-9 13.2% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7 12.5
8-10 25.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.6 24.7
7-11 28.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.5 28.1
6-12 19.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 19.2
5-13 7.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.9
4-14 1.9% 1.9
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 16.0 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Lose Out 0.2%