Columbia
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.2 #139
Expected Predictive Rating +5.5 #95
Pace 71.6 #109
Improvement -2.5 #304

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #140 B+ C F D+ B+
Defense #146 B- B F C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #39 1.16 #172 +3.7 #66
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #290 0.78 #139 -1.6 #259
Three Pointers 40% #199 1.19 #12 +3.1 #91
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #54 +5.2 #53
Freethrows 14.8 #306 76% #78 11.2 #266
Second Chance 35.1% #64 0.89 #331 0.31 #196
Turnovers 20.7% #352
Total Offense +0.9 #140

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #49 1.00 #31 +0.4 #166
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #137 0.82 #284 -1.1 #266
Three Pointers 35% #327 0.97 #139 +3.9 #50
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #84 +3.2 #84
Freethrows 17.0 #168 71% #135 12.1 #203
Second Chance 27.1% #67 0.98 #108 0.27 #60
Turnovers 12.8% #353
Total Defense +0.3 #146

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #47 0.5% #209
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.2% #75 -6.6% #69
Possession Length 18.0 #252 16.3 #48
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #235 0.22 #321
Improvement -0.9 #248 -1.6 #279

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.4% 19.4% 12.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.2 13.4
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 98.7%
.500 or above in Conference 88.1% 92.6% 76.2%
Conference Champion 21.2% 25.3% 10.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 0.9% 4.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round17.4% 19.4% 12.3%
Second Round1.3% 1.4% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Harvard (Home) - 72.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 34 - 35 - 6
Quad 414 - 319 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 338 @New Haven W 71 - 53 82%  +16  1 - 0 +9 +2 A+ F F +9 A+ B- D
 Mon, Nov 10 5 @Connecticut L 62 - 89 3%  -16  1 - 1 -2 +5 B- B- C- -9 D+ C- F
 Thu, Nov 13 286 Umass Lowell W 86 - 72 85%  +1  2 - 1 +4 +8 B C+ F -4 C- A C
 Tue, Nov 18 258 Boston University W 54 - 49 82%  +12  3 - 1 -4 -17 F F F +15 A+ B- F
 Fri, Nov 21 320 @Lehigh W 82 - 67 78%  +9  4 - 1 +8 +9 A- A+ F -1 C B- F
 Sun, Nov 23 279 Longwood W 95 - 70 85%  +13  5 - 1 +15 +14 A+ A F +0 F A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 282 @Fairfield W 106 - 77 69%  +18  6 - 1 +25 +28 A+ A+ C- -3 C C C-
 Wed, Dec 3 109 Hofstra W 72 - 70 49%  +6  7 - 1 +3 +4 A+ F D- -0 A+ C D-
 Sat, Dec 6 322 Albany W 93 - 65 90%  +9  8 - 1 +15 +14 A- A+ F +2 B A+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 276 @Stony Brook L 73 - 77 OT 68%  -8  8 - 2 -8 -8 F F F +1 B+ F B+
 Sun, Dec 21 84 @California L 56 - 74 20%  -11  8 - 3 -8 -9 B F F +1 B A- F
 Sun, Dec 28 350 @North Florida W 90 - 82 85%  +1  9 - 3 -2 +6 A+ F D -8 D+ A+ F
 Mon, Jan 5 168 @Cornell W 104 - 99 47%  +1  10 - 3 1 - 0 +7 +10 A+ F F -4 B+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 196 Harvard W 75 - 69 72% 
 Sat, Jan 17 247 @Brown W 71 - 68 61% 
 Mon, Jan 19 80 @Yale L 74 - 83 20% 
 Sat, Jan 24 230 @Dartmouth W 79 - 77 57% 
 Fri, Jan 30 216 Penn W 82 - 75 76% 
 Sat, Jan 31 242 Princeton W 77 - 68 79% 
 Sat, Feb 7 168 Cornell W 91 - 86 68% 
 Fri, Feb 13 216 @Penn W 79 - 78 55% 
 Sat, Feb 14 242 @Princeton W 74 - 71 60% 
 Sat, Feb 21 230 Dartmouth W 82 - 74 77% 
 Fri, Feb 27 247 Brown W 74 - 65 79% 
 Sat, Feb 28 80 Yale L 77 - 80 39% 
 Sat, Mar 7 196 @Harvard W 73 - 72 52% 
Totals 18 - 8 9 - 5 +1 +1 B+ C F +0 B- B F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 4.0 6.7 6.4 2.5 0.4 21.2 1st
2nd 0.6 5.8 13.5 13.4 5.9 1.1 40.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.4 8.4 4.2 0.7 0.0 17.8 3rd
4th 0.0 2.1 5.6 1.9 0.1 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.5 1.4 0.1 5.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 1.2 0.1 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 8th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.2 7.0 11.9 16.2 18.9 18.1 12.6 7.5 2.5 0.4 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
13-1 100.0% 2.5    2.3 0.2
12-2 85.4% 6.4    4.6 1.7
11-3 53.2% 6.7    3.6 3.0 0.1
10-4 22.0% 4.0    1.2 2.1 0.6 0.0
9-5 6.0% 1.1    0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 21.2% 21.2 12.3 7.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.4% 37.1% 37.1% 11.5 0.1 0.1 0.3
13-1 2.5% 36.5% 36.5% 12.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.6
12-2 7.5% 32.9% 32.9% 12.7 0.0 1.0 1.3 0.2 5.0
11-3 12.6% 27.4% 27.4% 13.0 0.0 0.9 1.9 0.7 0.0 9.2
10-4 18.1% 22.1% 22.1% 13.3 0.5 2.0 1.3 0.2 14.1
9-5 18.9% 18.9% 18.9% 13.6 0.2 1.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 15.3
8-6 16.2% 13.3% 13.3% 13.8 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.3 14.0
7-7 11.9% 5.7% 5.7% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 11.3
6-8 7.0% 0.7% 0.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0
5-9 3.2% 3.2
4-10 1.3% 1.3
3-11 0.3% 0.3
2-12 0.1% 0.1
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 13.2 82.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.5 51.5 48.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%