Columbia
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.6 #183
Expected Predictive Rating +0.6 #152
Pace 69.6 #159
Improvement -6.6 #363

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #161 B- C F+ C- B-
Defense #239 C B- F+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #55 1.16 #172 +2.8 #88
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #249 0.72 #241 -1.7 #267
Three Pointers 40% #213 1.13 #34 +1.6 #121
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #98 +2.8 #98
Freethrows 0.27 #276 73% #146 0.20 #252
Second Chance 35.5% #49 0.89 #333 0.32 #165
Turnovers 20.8% #357
Total Offense +0.1 #161

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #39 1.09 #84 -1.8 #236
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #137 0.75 #176 -0.4 #218
Three Pointers 34% #348 1.06 #249 +2.7 #76
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #160 +0.5 #161
Freethrows 0.31 #201 72% #169 0.22 #195
Second Chance 28.7% #101 0.95 #74 0.27 #78
Turnovers 12.7% #349
Total Defense -1.6 #239

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #73 0.5% #215
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.8% #111 -1.6% #150
Possession Length 18.3 #292 16.3 #39
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #283 0.20 #288
Improvement -1.7 #287 -4.9 #358

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 7.0% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.9 14.1
.500 or above 99.1% 100.0% 97.6%
.500 or above in Conference 51.0% 65.7% 29.4%
Conference Champion 2.1% 3.1% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 2.0% 8.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round5.3% 7.0% 2.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cornell (Home) - 59.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 35 - 35 - 7
Quad 411 - 416 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 334 @New Haven W 71 - 53 73% +16  1 - 0 +10 +1 A+ F F +10 A+ C+ D+
 Mon, Nov 10 9 @Connecticut L 62 - 89 2% -16  1 - 1 -3 +5 C+ C+ C+ -10 D- B F
 Thu, Nov 13 314 Umass Lowell W 86 - 72 84% +1  2 - 1 +2 +8 B- B F -6 D A+ C
 Tue, Nov 18 290 Boston University W 54 - 49 80% +12  3 - 1 -5 -18 F F F +13 A+ B+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 301 @Lehigh W 82 - 67 64% +9  4 - 1 +10 +10 B+ A+ F +0 C C+ F
 Sun, Nov 23 264 Longwood W 95 - 70 76% +13  5 - 1 +16 +16 A A C- -0 F A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 26 272 @Fairfield W 106 - 77 57% +18  6 - 1 +26 +29 A+ A+ C+ -4 C C C-
 Wed, Dec 3 126 Hofstra W 72 - 70 47% +6  7 - 1 +1 +2 A- F F+ -1 B+ C- D+
 Sat, Dec 6 316 Albany W 93 - 65 85% +9  8 - 1 +15 +15 B+ A+ F+ +0 B A+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 217 @Stony Brook L 73 - 77 OT 45% -8  8 - 2 -4 -8 D F+ F +4 A F B
 Sun, Dec 21 64 @California L 56 - 74 11% -11  8 - 3 -6 -8 B F F +1 B- A- F
 Sun, Dec 28 351 @North Florida W 90 - 82 78% +1  9 - 3 -2 +4 A F D -6 C- A+ F
 Mon, Jan 5 176 @Cornell W 104 - 99 37% +1  10 - 3 1 - 0 +7 +9 A- D- F -3 B- D D-
 Sat, Jan 10 165 Harvard L 54 - 79 57% -13  10 - 4 1 - 1 -28 -12 F C- F -21 F D D-
 Sat, Jan 17 280 @Brown L 80 - 86 OT 58% +1  10 - 5 1 - 2 -10 +7 D+ A+ C -16 F B+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 80 @Yale L 74 - 91 14% -9  10 - 6 1 - 3 -7 +9 C- A+ D- -17 F+ F+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 229 @Dartmouth W 79 - 69 47% +4  11 - 6 2 - 3 +9 +4 C- D+ F +5 A- C F+
 Fri, Jan 30 180 Penn W 72 - 67 61% +5  12 - 6 3 - 3 +1 -0 A- C- F +1 B+ B F
 Sat, Jan 31 213 Princeton L 68 - 80 67% -1  12 - 7 3 - 4 -18 +2 C D A -21 F D D-
 Sat, Feb 7 176 Cornell W 90 - 87 60%
 Fri, Feb 13 180 @Penn L 76 - 79 38%
 Sat, Feb 14 213 @Princeton L 71 - 72 44%
 Sat, Feb 21 229 Dartmouth W 80 - 75 69%
 Fri, Feb 27 280 Brown W 73 - 65 77%
 Sat, Feb 28 80 Yale L 74 - 80 30%
 Sat, Mar 7 165 @Harvard L 69 - 73 35%
Totals 16 - 10 7 - 7 -2 +0 B- C F+ -2 C B- F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 0.8 2.1 1st
2nd 0.4 5.7 4.4 0.3 10.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 6.3 9.1 0.8 16.2 3rd
4th 2.5 14.4 1.6 18.5 4th
5th 0.6 11.0 5.6 0.0 17.2 5th
6th 0.2 6.4 10.9 0.4 17.8 6th
7th 0.5 4.7 9.0 1.7 15.9 7th
8th 0.4 0.8 0.2 1.4 8th
Total 1.0 5.7 16.1 26.2 27.0 16.5 6.4 1.1 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 69.1% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.0
9-5 19.0% 1.2    0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1
8-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 1.1% 17.0% 17.0% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9
9-5 6.4% 17.7% 17.7% 13.6 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 5.2
8-6 16.5% 13.6% 13.6% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.4 0.0 14.2
7-7 27.0% 6.2% 6.2% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.0 25.4
6-8 26.2% 0.2% 0.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 26.2
5-9 16.1% 16.1
4-10 5.7% 5.7
3-11 1.0% 1.0
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 13.9 94.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.8 50.0 28.9 15.8 5.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 1.0%