Columbia
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.4 203
Results Rating -1.2 179
Pace 67.8 199
Improvement -7.7 365

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 181 C+ C+ F D+ B
Defense C- 227 C+ B- F+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 42 C- 56% 216 +2.4 92
2 Pt. Jumpers 35% 219 D+ 35% 287 -2.3 289
Three Pointers 40% 206 B+ 38% 31 +1.9 118
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.0 63 C+ +1.0 129
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.06 112
Second Chance B 35.2% 54 D+ 0.95 292 C+ 0.33 118
Turnovers F 21.3% 359
Freethrows D+ 0.28 271 C- 71% 233 D+ 0.20 285
Total Offense C -0.7 181

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 53% 104 C- 11.9% 241
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 33% 69 C 5.3% 205
Three Pointers C+ 86% 149 D- 1.8% 336
Total B 62% 61 D 6.8% 304

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 46 C+ 56% 121 +2.3 260
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 114 C- 39% 229 +0.9 262
Three Pointers 34% 349 C+ 33% 134 -4.1 32
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 200 C+ -1.1 138
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 141
Second Chance C+ 29.0% 125 B- 0.98 103 B- 0.28 96
Turnovers F+ 13.2% 349
Freethrows C 0.30 184 D+ 74% 270 C 0.22 207
Total Defense C- -1.7 227

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 281 D+ 8.7% 268
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 31% 290 C- 4.5% 195
Three Pointers D 89% 320 D- -0.1% 359
Total C- 58% 227 C- 4.8% 241

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 296 16.6 50
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 313 0.20 273
Improvement -3.3 #322 -4.4 #348

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 230 202 175
Results Rating Rank 229 187 154
Conference Record 4 - 10 5 - 9 7 - 7
Conference Finish 8 6 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 15.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 7% 9% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 22% 3% 72%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Brown (Home) - 73.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 34 - 44 - 8
Quad 410 - 414 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 321 @New Haven W 71 - 53 68% +16  97% 1 - 0 B +11 C- -0 A+ F F A+ +12 A+ C+ C-
 Mon, Nov 10 9 @Connecticut L 62 - 89 2% -16  8% 1 - 1 C- -4 C +1 C C+ C D -6 D- B F
 Thu, Nov 13 311 Umass Lowell W 86 - 72 81% +1  40% 2 - 1 C+ +2 B- +5 B B F C- -3 D A+ C
 Tue, Nov 18 257 Boston University W 54 - 49 72% +12  98% 3 - 1 C- -3 F -20 F+ F F A+ +18 A+ A- F
 Fri, Nov 21 307 @Lehigh W 82 - 67 62% +9  97% 4 - 1 B +9 B +7 B+ A+ F B- +3 C+ C F
 Sun, Nov 23 262 Longwood W 95 - 70 73% +13  96% 5 - 1 A- +16 A +13 A A C- B- +2 F A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 26 264 @Fairfield W 106 - 77 52% +18  99% 6 - 1 A+ +26 A+ +26 A+ A+ B- C -0 B- C D+
 Wed, Dec 3 106 Hofstra W 72 - 70 36% +6  99% 7 - 1 C+ +3 C +1 A F+ F+ B- +2 B+ D+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 316 Albany W 93 - 65 83% +9  78% 8 - 1 A- +16 A +12 B+ A+ D- B +4 B+ A+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 214 @Stony Brook L 73 - 77 OT 41% -8  0% 8 - 2 C- -4 F -10 D F F B+ +7 A F B
 Sun, Dec 21 70 @California L 56 - 74 11% -11  0% 8 - 3 D+ -7 F -12 B F F B +4 B A- F
 Sun, Dec 28 340 @North Florida W 90 - 82 74% +1  62% 9 - 3 C -1 C+ +3 A F D- D+ -4 D+ A F
 Mon, Jan 5 171 @Cornell W 104 - 99 32% +1  44% 10 - 3 1 - 0 B- +7 B+ +8 A D F C -1 B- D D-
 Sat, Jan 10 146 Harvard L 54 - 79 50% -13  0% 10 - 4 1 - 1 F -27 F -13 F C- F F -19 F D D-
 Sat, Jan 17 267 @Brown L 80 - 86 OT 52% +1  53% 10 - 5 1 - 2 D -9 B- +4 D A+ C F -13 F+ A- F
 Mon, Jan 19 85 @Yale L 74 - 91 13% -9  7% 10 - 6 1 - 3 D+ -7 B- +5 C- A+ F+ F -14 F+ F+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 250 @Dartmouth W 79 - 69 48% +4  64% 11 - 6 2 - 3 B +8 C+ +2 C- D+ F B+ +6 A- C- F+
 Fri, Jan 30 169 Penn W 72 - 67 54% +5  95% 12 - 6 3 - 3 C +1 C- -1 A D+ F B- +3 B+ B F
 Sat, Jan 31 254 Princeton L 68 - 80 71% -1  40% 12 - 7 3 - 4 F -20 D+ -3 D+ D- A- F -18 F D D-
 Sat, Feb 7 171 Cornell L 67 - 88 55% -12  7% 12 - 8 3 - 5 F -25 F -12 F+ B F F -14 C+ F D
 Fri, Feb 13 169 @Penn L 67 - 76 32% +2  83% 12 - 9 3 - 6 D+ -7 D- -6 B- C F C -0 C C+ D
 Sat, Feb 14 254 @Princeton W 75 - 65 49% +2  60% 13 - 9 4 - 6 B- +8 A+ +16 A+ A A D -6 F C D+
 Sat, Feb 21 250 Dartmouth L 63 - 64 70% +0  48% 13 - 10 4 - 7 D -9 F -13 F A- D B +4 A+ B+ F
 Fri, Feb 27 267 Brown W 72 - 65 73%
 Sat, Feb 28 85 Yale L 73 - 79 28%
 Fri, Mar 6 146 @Harvard L 65 - 71 28%
Totals 14 - 12 5 - 9 -2 C -1 A+ C+ B C- -2 B+ C- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- D+ B+ C+ 44% 35% 40% B C+ B D+ C+ F D+ C- D+ C- C+ C- C+ C+ 44% 22% 34% C- C+ C+ B- B- F+ C D+ C
1.08 56% 35% 38% +1 +1 1.06 35% 1.0 .33 21% .28 71% .20 1.11 56% 39% 33% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.0 .28 13% .30 74% .20
Nov
7		 New Haven C- A D A+ A+ 52% 14% 34% B+ A+ B- F F F C+ F D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 22% 37% C- A+ C B C+ C- D F F
1.08 70% 33% 47% +12 +2 1.30 31% 0.6 .19 24% .28 64% .18 0.81 45% 18% 22% -16 0 0.69 21% 0.9 .19 18% .30 81% .24
Nov
10		 Connecticut C C+ B F C 40% 26% 34% C C B- C C+ C B B B+ D D D- F D 47% 8% 45% F+ D- A+ F B F F A- F
0.93 53% 42% 19% -9 0 0.83 29% 0.9 .26 20% .37 75% .28 1.34 70% 50% 41% +11 +2 1.29 25% 1.4 .36 9% .48 66% .31
Nov
13		 Umass Lowell B- F+ A+ A+ B- 57% 14% 29% B+ B A+ F B F A+ D A+ C- C+ A+ F D 55% 22% 24% D D B- A+ A+ C B+ C B
1.24 50% 57% 50% +5 +2 1.16 61% 0.7 .42 24% .50 69% .34 1.04 53% 25% 54% +2 +1 1.07 29% 0.6 .17 20% .25 64% .16
Nov
18		 Boston University F F A+ D+ F 51% 7% 42% A+ F+ D+ F F F F B+ F+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ 59% 8% 33% F A+ C+ A+ A- F C- B- C
0.91 45% 67% 33% -5 +3 0.98 27% 0.7 .18 22% .19 78% .15 0.82 47% 0% 12% -21 +3 0.67 25% 0.7 .18 8% .29 69% .20
Nov
21		 Lehigh B A+ F B+ B 49% 14% 37% A- B+ A+ A A+ F B F C- B- C- F+ B+ C 23% 33% 44% A C+ C+ D+ C F F A+ C+
1.20 71% 14% 39% +6 +2 1.16 50% 1.2 .60 22% .36 63% .22 0.98 58% 47% 30% +1 -3 0.98 20% 1.0 .20 13% .35 52% .18
Nov
23		 Longwood A D D A+ A+ 28% 16% 56% D A A- B+ A C- F B+ F B- A+ F F F 44% 27% 29% C F A+ A+ A+ C+ B- A+ B+
1.31 56% 33% 53% +15 0 1.32 37% 1.1 .40 19% .21 75% .15 0.97 43% 64% 47% +6 0 1.13 19% 0.2 .03 21% .30 65% .19
Nov
26		 Fairfield A+ B- F A+ A+ 63% 2% 35% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- D+ A+ B- C A- D B- B- 38% 24% 38% C+ B- D B C D+ C- C+ C
1.49 62% 0% 53% +11 +4 1.33 46% 1.9 .88 14% .26 94% .25 1.08 45% 43% 32% -5 0 0.91 37% 0.8 .30 14% .26 69% .18
Dec
3		 Hofstra C C+ D+ A+ A 29% 24% 47% C- A C+ F F+ F+ C B- C B- A+ F+ D+ A 50% 18% 32% F B+ B+ F D+ C- F A D-
1.09 57% 33% 43% +5 -1 1.10 31% 0.6 .20 18% .30 75% .22 1.06 40% 44% 38% -6 +1 0.92 29% 1.4 .40 15% .39 68% .27
Dec
6		 Albany A A+ A+ C- A 35% 25% 40% D- B+ A+ A+ A+ D- B- A B+ B F F A+ B- 29% 31% 41% A+ B+ B A+ A+ F F C+ F
1.35 72% 54% 33% +8 -1 1.17 52% 1.5 .76 17% .33 84% .28 0.94 71% 60% 10% -4 -2 0.90 28% 0.3 .07 13% .45 67% .30
Dec
9		 Stony Brook F C- F D D- 43% 11% 46% B+ D A- F F F B- A- B B+ A+ D- C A+ 46% 19% 35% C- A C- F F B F+ B+ D
0.92 57% 17% 32% -4 +2 0.96 40% 0.4 .16 23% .31 79% .25 0.97 35% 45% 35% -9 +1 0.86 30% 1.2 .36 20% .33 67% .22
Dec
21		 California F C- A+ F+ C+ 64% 6% 30% A+ B D F F F F+ F F B F A+ C B 33% 29% 38% B B B+ A A- F D- C- D-
0.84 53% 67% 27% -5 +4 1.00 24% 0.1 .03 22% .23 50% .12 1.10 71% 27% 35% +1 -1 1.02 24% 0.9 .21 9% .39 79% .31
Dec
28		 North Florida C+ B A- A+ A 51% 12% 37% B A F C F D- A- A+ A+ D+ A- F D- C- 42% 10% 48% D- D+ A+ B+ A F B+ F C+
1.25 65% 50% 47% +13 +2 1.31 20% 1.2 .24 15% .35 81% .28 1.14 48% 67% 38% +2 +2 1.08 17% 1.0 .17 11% .19 92% .17
Jan
5		 Cornell B+ D+ A+ A+ A 48% 13% 38% B A C F D F A+ A+ A+ C A+ D+ F B- 42% 14% 44% B- B- D C- D D- C F D-
1.26 56% 71% 50% +13 +2 1.31 31% 0.9 .28 19% .50 85% .42 1.20 44% 44% 46% +3 +1 1.11 35% 1.1 .40 15% .28 90% .26
Jan
10		 Harvard F F+ D F F 54% 20% 26% B- F A- F C- F D+ A+ B- F C- C- F F 50% 11% 39% F F F B+ D D- B F C-
0.90 48% 33% 17% -13 +1 0.78 39% 0.7 .28 23% .24 91% .22 1.31 61% 40% 56% +14 +2 1.35 38% 0.8 .31 15% .21 100% .21
Jan
17		 Brown B- D- F+ D F+ 47% 16% 36% B D A A+ A+ C C+ F D- F F C+ A+ F+ 58% 18% 24% D- F+ C A+ A- F F F F
1.09 50% 33% 30% -7 +1 0.91 40% 1.2 .50 18% .35 57% .20 1.18 76% 33% 8% 0 +2 1.06 28% 0.8 .22 12% .53 79% .42
Jan
19		 Yale B- A+ C+ F C- 37% 24% 39% C- C- B- A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ F C- B F F 43% 16% 41% D F+ F B- F+ D C- F D-
1.15 80% 40% 19% 0 -1 1.00 32% 1.5 .48 19% .48 84% .40 1.41 59% 38% 52% +12 +1 1.27 44% 1.1 .50 12% .34 89% .30
Jan
24		 Dartmouth C+ C- F A C 30% 23% 47% D- C- C D D+ F A+ C+ A+ B+ A+ B- D- A- 30% 22% 48% B A- A- F C- F+ C A- B-
1.10 56% 17% 40% -1 -1 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 17% .47 71% .34 0.96 31% 33% 38% -6 -1 0.89 18% 1.6 .28 15% .31 68% .21
Jan
30		 Penn C- A F A+ A 48% 22% 30% C+ A C+ D- D+ F F C+ F B- C A+ F B- 32% 41% 27% A+ B+ A- C- B F A+ A+ A+
1.07 71% 27% 47% +9 +1 1.22 32% 0.8 .25 27% .12 67% .08 1.00 56% 22% 47% -2 -3 0.91 25% 1.0 .25 12% .19 55% .10
Jan
31		 Princeton D+ D- B- C- D 49% 14% 37% B D+ A+ F D- A- C F F F C- D+ F F 51% 16% 33% F+ F B- F D D- F C- F
1.10 52% 43% 32% -4 +2 0.98 43% 0.6 .24 10% .30 41% .12 1.29 57% 43% 53% +10 +2 1.24 25% 1.3 .33 15% .40 76% .30
Feb
7		 Cornell F F D- B- F 60% 6% 34% A+ F+ C+ A- B F C F F+ F F F A+ C 47% 23% 30% A- C+ F F F D F F F
1.02 46% 33% 38% -5 +3 0.98 32% 1.3 .41 23% .34 53% .18 1.34 73% 55% 21% +5 0 1.13 46% 1.4 .65 15% .43 92% .39
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
13		 Penn D- B- F C C 52% 10% 38% A B- C+ C- C F C F D C A- F+ D+ C+ 37% 24% 39% D+ C B C- C+ D B- D+ C+
0.95 64% 20% 33% +1 +2 1.08 32% 0.9 .29 28% .26 54% .14 1.08 45% 46% 38% 0 -1 1.00 28% 1.0 .28 14% .30 72% .22
Feb
14		 Princeton A+ D+ A A+ A+ 43% 10% 48% B+ A+ C A+ A A A F D- D F F A+ F 43% 30% 27% B F F A C D+ D B D+
1.33 56% 50% 50% +11 +2 1.29 29% 1.6 .46 9% .39 45% .18 1.15 74% 54% 25% +8 -1 1.16 35% 0.8 .27 16% .36 71% .25
Feb
21		 Dartmouth F F F D- F 47% 15% 38% B- F C+ A+ A- D F D F B D+ A+ A+ A+ 29% 13% 58% C- A+ A+ F B+ F B- F D
0.94 42% 13% 29% -14 +1 0.76 31% 1.3 .40 15% .16 67% .10 0.95 60% 14% 23% -12 0 0.79 14% 1.4 .19 12% .29 94% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 1.4 3rd
4th 7.3 4.3 11.6 4th
5th 8.8 20.3 0.9 29.9 5th
6th 1.6 31.1 3.6 36.3 6th
7th 6.9 7.4 0.0 14.3 7th
8th 6.4 0.1 6.5 8th
Total 14.9 47.3 31.3 6.5 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5
8-6
7-7 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5
8-6
7-7 6.5% 8.1% 8.1% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 6.0
6-8 31.3% 0.5% 0.5% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 31.2
5-9 47.3% 47.3
4-10 14.9% 14.9
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 14.0 99.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 28.8% 13.7 0.2 9.1 17.6 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.7%
Lose Out 14.9%