Florida International
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.6 #164
Expected Predictive Rating -1.0 #184
Pace 76.2 #36
Improvement +2.1 #74

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #149 C+ B- C+ D+ B
Defense #210 C F A- B D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #12 1.15 #190 +5.1 #36
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #209 0.83 #84 +0.1 #173
Three Pointers 34% #319 1.00 #195 -3.8 #304
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #145 +1.3 #144
Freethrows 17.1 #205 67% #323 11.4 #252
Second Chance 33.3% #109 1.12 #95 0.37 #80
Turnovers 16.1% #144
Total Offense +0.5 #149

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #211 1.07 #74 +2.3 #102
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #336 0.87 #325 +1.3 #98
Three Pointers 48% #31 0.98 #150 -2.6 #288
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #146 +0.9 #146
Freethrows 13.8 #34 79% #355 11.0 #292
Second Chance 36.8% #346 1.13 #286 0.42 #345
Turnovers 19.9% #35
Total Defense -1.1 #210

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #71 1.4% #295
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.8% #163 -3.2% #119
Possession Length 14.6 #11 17.8 #272
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #15 0.17 #158
Improvement +1.5 #87 +0.6 #143

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.2% 7.8% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 51.8% 65.2% 40.7%
.500 or above in Conference 55.7% 69.5% 44.4%
Conference Champion 2.7% 4.8% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 1.5% 5.4%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round6.2% 7.8% 4.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri St. (Away) - 45.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 35 - 65 - 12
Quad 410 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 23 @Nebraska L 66 - 96 5%  -21  0 - 1 -11 -3 D+ A F -6 F F A+
 Thu, Nov 13 42 @LSU L 81 - 98 8%  -10  0 - 2 -2 +6 C A- B+ -6 B+ F A-
 Mon, Nov 24 204 James Madison L 72 - 80 68%  +1  0 - 3 -13 -3 D- F B+ -11 A+ F D
 Wed, Nov 26 257 Nebraska Omaha W 74 - 61 78%  +8  1 - 3 +4 -7 F C A+ +11 A+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 189 Florida Gulf Coast W 89 - 83 67%  +6  2 - 3 +1 +4 D+ A- C- -4 A- D- B
 Sat, Dec 6 328 Jacksonville W 88 - 65 88%  +18  3 - 3 +10 +12 A+ D+ C -2 B+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 36 @Miami (FL) L 81 - 98 6%  -6  3 - 4 -0 +10 A- C+ B- -9 F C C
 Sat, Dec 20 209 LIU Brooklyn W 86 - 79 69%  +2  4 - 4 +1 +3 A C- D -2 B D- A+
 Sun, Dec 28 99 Liberty L 94 - 97 OT 40%  +0  4 - 5 0 - 1 -1 +12 B- A+ D+ -12 C- F C
 Fri, Jan 2 136 New Mexico St. W 89 - 74 54%  +11  5 - 5 1 - 1 +13 +13 A A+ C- -0 F A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 244 UTEP W 76 - 64 75%  +2  6 - 5 2 - 1 +4 +4 C A+ C+ +1 C+ A- C+
 Wed, Jan 7 208 @Jacksonville St. L 64 - 71 46%  -1  6 - 6 2 - 2 -7 -2 C D F -5 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 192 @Missouri St. L 73 - 74 45% 
 Wed, Jan 14 162 @Kennesaw St. L 83 - 86 38% 
 Sat, Jan 17 134 Sam Houston St. W 83 - 82 53% 
 Thu, Jan 22 244 @UTEP W 75 - 74 54% 
 Sat, Jan 24 136 @New Mexico St. L 75 - 80 32% 
 Wed, Jan 28 208 Jacksonville St. W 76 - 71 68% 
 Wed, Feb 4 123 @Middle Tennessee L 73 - 79 30% 
 Sat, Feb 7 155 @Western Kentucky L 81 - 85 37% 
 Thu, Feb 12 277 Delaware W 76 - 67 80% 
 Sat, Feb 14 228 Louisiana Tech W 73 - 67 71% 
 Thu, Feb 19 99 @Liberty L 73 - 82 21% 
 Sat, Feb 21 192 Missouri St. W 76 - 71 66% 
 Thu, Feb 26 134 @Sam Houston St. L 80 - 85 32% 
 Sat, Feb 28 228 @Louisiana Tech W 70 - 69 50% 
 Thu, Mar 5 123 Middle Tennessee W 77 - 76 51% 
 Sat, Mar 7 155 Western Kentucky W 84 - 82 58% 
Totals 14 - 14 10 - 10 -1 +1 C+ B- C+ -1 C F A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 3.0 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 8.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.4 3.2 0.7 0.1 9.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.2 4.1 0.8 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 4.6 5.6 1.2 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.2 3.1 6.5 1.9 0.1 11.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 6.2 3.2 0.2 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 5.0 4.5 0.4 0.0 10.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.3 4.3 0.8 0.0 9.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.5 1.3 0.1 7.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.9 0.9 0.1 4.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.8 8.7 12.4 15.1 15.8 14.4 11.3 7.4 4.1 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 95.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 67.4% 0.5    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 44.7% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 22.4% 0.9    0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 5.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.1% 40.0% 40.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.7% 25.9% 25.9% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-5 1.9% 22.1% 22.1% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4
14-6 4.1% 19.3% 19.3% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 3.3
13-7 7.4% 14.5% 14.5% 13.5 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 6.3
12-8 11.3% 9.8% 9.8% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 10.2
11-9 14.4% 7.4% 7.4% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 13.3
10-10 15.8% 4.6% 4.6% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 15.1
9-11 15.1% 3.0% 3.0% 15.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 14.7
8-12 12.4% 1.7% 1.7% 15.8 0.0 0.2 12.2
7-13 8.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 8.6
6-14 4.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.8
5-15 2.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.2% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 13.9 93.8 0.0%