Florida International
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.9 #188
Expected Predictive Rating -3.8 #225
Pace 78.7 #12
Improvement -1.8 #261

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #200 C C+ C C- B-
Defense #189 C D B+ C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #25 1.12 #231 +3.2 #76
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #200 0.77 #151 -0.3 #192
Three Pointers 35% #310 1.03 #160 -2.8 #278
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #174 +0.0 #176
Freethrows 0.31 #159 67% #334 0.21 #226
Second Chance 32.4% #131 1.04 #158 0.34 #124
Turnovers 16.7% #179
Total Offense -1.3 #200

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #252 1.12 #129 +2.0 #111
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #328 0.87 #330 +1.4 #78
Three Pointers 48% #21 1.00 #150 -3.3 #315
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #188 +0.1 #181
Freethrows 0.30 #191 72% #159 0.22 #185
Second Chance 35.4% #333 1.07 #256 0.38 #326
Turnovers 20.3% #25
Total Defense -0.6 #189

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #101 1.0% #262
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.1% #187 -0.4% #179
Possession Length 14.4 #5 17.4 #215
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #34 0.17 #177
Improvement -2.6 #324 +0.9 #131

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 3.1% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.6 15.2
.500 or above 11.5% 21.8% 6.4%
.500 or above in Conference 12.9% 25.8% 6.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.2% 3.6% 12.0%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.6%
First Round2.1% 2.9% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Away) - 33.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 33 - 73 - 13
Quad 49 - 512 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 13 @Nebraska L 66 - 96 3% -21  0 - 1 -9 -2 D+ A- F -4 F+ D- A+
 Thu, Nov 13 49 @LSU L 81 - 98 7% -10  0 - 2 -3 +5 C- B B+ -6 B F B
 Mon, Nov 24 205 James Madison L 72 - 80 64% +1  0 - 3 -14 -3 D D+ B -11 A+ F D
 Wed, Nov 26 241 Nebraska Omaha W 74 - 61 71% +8  1 - 3 +5 -5 D C- A +10 A+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 223 Florida Gulf Coast W 89 - 83 67% +6  2 - 3 -0 +5 D+ B+ C -6 B- D B-
 Sat, Dec 6 295 Jacksonville W 88 - 65 80% +18  3 - 3 +12 +14 A+ C- C -1 B F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 40 @Miami (FL) L 81 - 98 6% -6  3 - 4 -1 +9 B B B- -9 F+ C C
 Sat, Dec 20 195 LIU Brooklyn W 86 - 79 63% +2  4 - 4 +2 +4 A D+ D+ -3 C C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 28 89 Liberty L 94 - 97 OT 31% +0  4 - 5 0 - 1 +0 +12 C+ A+ C -11 C F C
 Fri, Jan 2 167 New Mexico St. W 89 - 74 57% +11  5 - 5 1 - 1 +11 +12 B+ A+ D -1 F A A+
 Sun, Jan 4 257 UTEP W 76 - 64 74% +2  6 - 5 2 - 1 +4 +4 C A+ C -0 C+ C+ C+
 Wed, Jan 7 191 @Jacksonville St. L 64 - 71 39% -1  6 - 6 2 - 2 -6 -2 C D- D -5 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 182 @Missouri St. L 71 - 79 37% -6  6 - 7 2 - 3 -7 -2 F+ C+ B -4 C- F A-
 Wed, Jan 14 142 @Kennesaw St. L 86 - 89 28% +4  6 - 8 2 - 4 +1 +10 D A+ B- -9 D- C+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 108 Sam Houston St. L 63 - 76 40% -7  6 - 9 2 - 5 -12 -14 F F+ F +3 C+ B A
 Thu, Jan 22 257 @UTEP L 77 - 83 52% -5  6 - 10 2 - 6 -8 +3 B D- C -11 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 167 @New Mexico St. W 81 - 78 34% +4  7 - 10 3 - 6 +5 +2 C F A+ +3 A- C A
 Wed, Jan 28 191 Jacksonville St. L 74 - 78 62% +4  7 - 11 3 - 7 -9 -9 C D F +1 D+ A B-
 Wed, Feb 4 154 @Middle Tennessee L 72 - 77 33%
 Sat, Feb 7 156 @Western Kentucky L 77 - 82 32%
 Thu, Feb 12 286 Delaware W 77 - 69 79%
 Sat, Feb 14 215 Louisiana Tech W 73 - 69 65%
 Thu, Feb 19 89 @Liberty L 72 - 83 15%
 Sat, Feb 21 182 Missouri St. W 77 - 74 59%
 Thu, Feb 26 108 @Sam Houston St. L 78 - 87 21%
 Sat, Feb 28 215 @Louisiana Tech L 70 - 72 44%
 Thu, Mar 5 154 Middle Tennessee W 75 - 74 54%
 Sat, Mar 7 156 Western Kentucky W 80 - 79 55%
Totals 12 - 16 8 - 12 -2 -1 C C+ C -1 C D B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 1.5 0.2 2.7 4th
5th 0.5 3.2 0.9 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.1 3.0 3.3 0.2 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 6.8 1.3 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 8.1 5.3 0.1 14.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 8.8 9.6 0.9 0.0 21.1 9th
10th 0.1 2.0 8.6 9.8 2.3 0.0 22.8 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 4.4 5.5 1.7 0.1 12.6 11th
12th 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.0 3.7 12th
Total 0.4 2.4 7.9 16.3 21.7 21.9 16.6 9.0 3.1 0.7 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.7% 12.1% 12.1% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.7
11-9 3.1% 8.7% 8.7% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.8
10-10 9.0% 4.9% 4.9% 14.4 0.3 0.2 8.6
9-11 16.6% 2.5% 2.5% 14.7 0.1 0.3 16.2
8-12 21.9% 2.1% 2.1% 15.7 0.1 0.3 21.4
7-13 21.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3 21.4
6-14 16.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 16.1
5-15 7.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.8
4-16 2.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.3
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 14.9 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%