Florida International
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.4#224
Expected Predictive Rating-5.9#264
Pace74.4#53
Improvement+4.7#15

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#307
First Shot-3.9#289
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#247
Layup/Dunks+4.6#33
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#243
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.5#357
Freethrows+0.1#169
Improvement+2.5#46

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#127
First Shot+1.8#121
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#223
Layups/Dunks-1.4#230
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#72
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#54
Freethrows-1.4#281
Improvement+2.2#57
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 2.2% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 4.2% 10.3% 2.6%
.500 or above in Conference 15.1% 30.2% 11.0%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.9% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 41.2% 22.4% 46.3%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.5%
First Round1.1% 2.0% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Away) - 21.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 34 - 125 - 17
Quad 46 - 310 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 172   @ Rice L 70-77 28%     0 - 1 -4.4 -5.2 +1.4
  Nov 09, 2024 216   @ Southern Utah L 75-80 37%     0 - 2 -5.0 -8.5 +4.2
  Nov 18, 2024 280   Howard L 70-75 73%     0 - 3 -14.7 -12.7 -1.9
  Nov 22, 2024 203   Northeastern L 58-60 45%     0 - 4 -4.0 -9.0 +4.9
  Nov 23, 2024 234   Cal St. Bakersfield W 76-73 OT 53%     1 - 4 -1.2 -1.2 -0.2
  Nov 24, 2024 182   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 59-60 29%     1 - 5 +1.3 -7.9 +9.1
  Dec 04, 2024 98   Florida Atlantic L 77-88 31%     1 - 6 -9.3 -0.2 -8.7
  Dec 14, 2024 332   @ Stetson W 81-72 65%     2 - 6 +1.7 +2.8 -1.1
  Dec 17, 2024 180   @ East Carolina L 64-75 29%     2 - 7 -8.7 -7.3 -1.3
  Dec 21, 2024 342   IU Indianapolis W 75-69 85%     3 - 7 -8.5 -5.6 -2.8
  Dec 30, 2024 295   Utah Tech W 80-66 75%     4 - 7 +3.5 -4.5 +6.9
  Jan 02, 2025 129   Middle Tennessee L 69-73 41%     4 - 8 0 - 1 -5.0 -6.7 +1.8
  Jan 04, 2025 123   Western Kentucky W 85-66 39%     5 - 8 1 - 1 +18.4 +2.6 +13.2
  Jan 09, 2025 131   @ Louisiana Tech L 65-73 22%    
  Jan 11, 2025 154   @ Sam Houston St. L 73-80 26%    
  Jan 16, 2025 155   New Mexico St. L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 18, 2025 124   UTEP L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 25, 2025 76   Liberty L 63-70 24%    
  Jan 30, 2025 164   @ Jacksonville St. L 68-74 29%    
  Feb 01, 2025 187   @ Kennesaw St. L 76-81 31%    
  Feb 06, 2025 154   Sam Houston St. L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 131   Louisiana Tech L 68-70 41%    
  Feb 13, 2025 124   @ UTEP L 67-76 21%    
  Feb 15, 2025 155   @ New Mexico St. L 66-73 27%    
  Feb 22, 2025 76   @ Liberty L 60-74 11%    
  Feb 27, 2025 187   Kennesaw St. W 79-78 53%    
  Mar 01, 2025 164   Jacksonville St. L 71-72 50%    
  Mar 06, 2025 123   @ Western Kentucky L 72-81 21%    
  Mar 08, 2025 129   @ Middle Tennessee L 68-77 22%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 3.4 0.7 0.0 6.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 4.9 1.6 0.1 8.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 6.0 3.3 0.2 11.3 7th
8th 0.2 2.1 6.8 5.5 0.6 0.0 15.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.5 8.2 6.8 1.4 0.0 20.6 9th
10th 0.8 3.5 7.4 9.2 6.1 1.5 0.1 28.5 10th
Total 0.8 3.5 8.1 12.9 16.5 16.8 15.0 11.3 7.6 4.2 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 83.3% 0.0    0.0
14-4 85.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 58.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 29.6% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 5.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 9.8% 9.8% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.4% 11.7% 11.7% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.9% 8.7% 8.7% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
11-7 2.1% 7.2% 7.2% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.9
10-8 4.2% 3.8% 3.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.0
9-9 7.6% 3.8% 3.8% 15.5 0.1 0.2 7.3
8-10 11.3% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 11.0
7-11 15.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 14.9
6-12 16.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 16.7
5-13 16.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 16.4
4-14 12.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.9
3-15 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.1
2-16 3.5% 3.5
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 98.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%