Holy Cross
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.5#313
Expected Predictive Rating+0.4#161
Pace64.3#298
Improvement-0.3#198

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#227
First Shot-1.5#222
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#223
Layup/Dunks-7.6#358
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#70
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#20
Freethrows-2.6#322
Improvement-1.5#286

Defense
Total Defense-6.5#349
First Shot-3.9#301
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#341
Layups/Dunks-8.7#363
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#112
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#139
Freethrows+2.6#30
Improvement+1.2#100
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 5.2% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 38.8% 47.7% 23.7%
.500 or above in Conference 36.4% 45.2% 21.5%
Conference Champion 4.3% 5.9% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 21.5% 14.1% 34.2%
First Four2.8% 3.1% 2.2%
First Round2.9% 3.5% 1.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Home) - 63.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 412 - 1014 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 34   @ Wisconsin L 61-85 2%     0 - 1 -8.7 -3.8 -6.0
  Nov 08, 2024 93   @ Rhode Island L 77-91 7%     0 - 2 -5.5 +4.4 -9.2
  Nov 15, 2024 295   Sacred Heart W 82-75 45%     1 - 2 -0.2 +15.2 -14.6
  Nov 16, 2024 174   @ Brown W 73-65 16%     2 - 2 +10.4 +6.4 +4.5
  Nov 17, 2024 355   New Hampshire W 74-72 67%     3 - 2 -10.9 +5.0 -15.6
  Nov 24, 2024 217   @ Maine L 55-80 21%     3 - 3 -24.9 -14.3 -11.3
  Nov 29, 2024 92   @ Virginia L 41-67 7%     3 - 4 -17.4 -15.0 -8.0
  Dec 04, 2024 243   Harvard W 68-67 47%     4 - 4 -6.6 -3.2 -3.4
  Dec 07, 2024 219   Central Connecticut St. L 56-69 41%     4 - 5 -19.1 -10.0 -10.7
  Dec 17, 2024 249   @ Quinnipiac W 70-69 26%     5 - 5 -0.8 -1.6 +0.8
  Dec 20, 2024 304   @ Siena W 78-70 36%     6 - 5 +3.1 +13.3 -9.3
  Jan 02, 2025 322   Loyola Maryland W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 05, 2025 232   @ American L 64-72 23%    
  Jan 08, 2025 318   Navy W 74-71 63%    
  Jan 11, 2025 267   @ Lafayette L 65-71 30%    
  Jan 15, 2025 266   @ Bucknell L 66-72 29%    
  Jan 18, 2025 232   American L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 22, 2025 312   Army W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 322   @ Loyola Maryland L 69-71 41%    
  Jan 27, 2025 257   @ Boston University L 65-71 29%    
  Feb 01, 2025 246   Lehigh L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 05, 2025 312   @ Army L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 257   Boston University L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 12, 2025 241   Colgate L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 15, 2025 246   @ Lehigh L 70-77 27%    
  Feb 19, 2025 267   Lafayette W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 23, 2025 318   @ Navy L 71-74 41%    
  Feb 26, 2025 241   @ Colgate L 67-74 26%    
  Mar 01, 2025 266   Bucknell W 70-69 50%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.0 0.8 0.1 7.5 3rd
4th 0.2 2.8 4.1 1.1 0.1 8.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 5.5 1.8 0.1 10.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 6.0 2.8 0.2 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.9 4.2 0.3 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.3 5.0 0.7 0.0 13.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 5.0 4.6 1.1 0.0 13.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.3 4.2 3.0 0.8 0.0 13.7 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.9 6.9 9.9 12.6 14.1 13.7 11.9 9.7 6.7 4.0 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 98.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0 0.0
14-4 84.4% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 60.1% 1.5    0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 27.1% 1.1    0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 4.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.3% 4.3 2.2 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 25.4% 25.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 24.0% 24.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.1% 20.7% 20.7% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8
13-5 2.4% 16.8% 16.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.0
12-6 4.0% 13.0% 13.0% 15.8 0.1 0.4 3.5
11-7 6.7% 9.6% 9.6% 15.9 0.0 0.6 6.1
10-8 9.7% 7.6% 7.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7 9.0
9-9 11.9% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7 11.3
8-10 13.7% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5 13.2
7-11 14.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.3 13.9
6-12 12.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 12.4
5-13 9.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 9.9
4-14 6.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.9
3-15 3.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.9
2-16 1.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.8
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.9 95.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%