Holy Cross
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.9 #323
Expected Predictive Rating -8.9 #309
Pace 64.7 #289
Improvement -2.1 #278

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #309 C- F+ C D+ D-
Defense #310 D C D B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #341 1.07 #287 -5.7 #346
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #52 0.88 #45 +4.3 #23
Three Pointers 41% #180 0.99 #223 -0.4 #203
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #229 -1.8 #229
Freethrows 0.26 #301 74% #109 0.20 #260
Second Chance 20.8% #359 0.95 #280 0.20 #359
Turnovers 17.2% #217
Total Offense -5.3 #309

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #53 1.27 #316 -5.4 #345
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #250 0.92 #359 -0.7 #243
Three Pointers 38% #263 0.99 #130 +2.0 #106
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #304 -4.0 #304
Freethrows 0.26 #56 73% #224 0.19 #64
Second Chance 29.8% #145 1.10 #287 0.33 #221
Turnovers 13.9% #329
Total Defense -4.6 #310

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.9% #331 1.3% #289
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.7% #181 6.5% #301
Possession Length 18.4 #297 17.3 #196
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #314 0.16 #136
Improvement -1.0 #241 -1.1 #249

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.3% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 11.4% 18.4% 3.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 36.3% 21.6% 52.1%
First Four2.0% 2.1% 1.8%
First Round1.1% 1.3% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston University (Home) - 51.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 42 - 7
Quad 49 - 1310 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 67 @Providence L 79 - 89 3% -10  0 - 1 +1 -1 C+ F D+ +3 B B D+
 Sat, Nov 8 15 @BYU L 53 - 98 1% -28  0 - 2 -24 -12 F+ D D- -10 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 104 @Utah L 69 - 87 6% -9  0 - 3 -11 -2 C- F+ A- -9 D+ C+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 251 Hampton W 67 - 61 32% +0  1 - 3 +1 +6 C+ C+ D- -4 C- D+ C
 Tue, Nov 18 280 @Brown L 49 - 68 28% -12  1 - 4 -23 -14 D F D- -11 F F C-
 Fri, Nov 21 276 @Sacred Heart L 66 - 79 26% -9  1 - 5 -16 -8 C F F -9 F B F+
 Mon, Nov 24 174 Siena L 69 - 73 29% -1  1 - 6 -8 -1 A- F D+ -7 F A+ D-
 Wed, Dec 3 256 Northeastern W 76 - 59 44% +13  2 - 6 +9 -0 B F B+ +10 A C B-
 Sat, Dec 6 169 @Fordham W 70 - 69 13% -7  3 - 6 +3 +7 B- A D- -3 D C D
 Tue, Dec 16 229 Dartmouth L 64 - 89 38% -11  3 - 7 -32 -10 F+ F C -23 F D+ B
 Sat, Dec 20 165 @Harvard L 53 - 81 12% -16  3 - 8 -25 -11 F D A -18 F F C-
 Wed, Dec 31 315 Bucknell W 65 - 58 60% +4  4 - 8 1 - 0 -5 -5 D F+ C +0 D+ A C+
 Sat, Jan 3 179 Navy L 58 - 65 29% -6  4 - 9 1 - 1 -11 -6 F A+ D -6 D+ A D
 Wed, Jan 7 301 @Lehigh L 58 - 66 32% -5  4 - 10 1 - 2 -13 -10 D- F B -4 D- C C
 Sat, Jan 10 244 @American W 84 - 73 22% +3  5 - 10 2 - 2 +9 +10 B+ D A -1 A- D- D
 Wed, Jan 14 336 Army W 82 - 75 66% +7  6 - 10 3 - 2 -7 +3 A F B- -10 D+ C+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 310 @Lafayette L 55 - 74 35% -12  6 - 11 3 - 3 -25 -16 F F D- -11 C- F+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 179 @Navy L 68 - 85 14% -6  6 - 12 3 - 4 -15 +3 B- C D- -20 F+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 244 American L 67 - 76 41% -8  6 - 13 3 - 5 -17 -3 B F D- -15 D C- F
 Wed, Jan 28 222 @Colgate L 74 - 79 18% +0  6 - 14 3 - 6 -5 +4 B+ F A -10 C+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 336 @Army L 68 - 69 43% -1  6 - 15 3 - 7 -9 -8 F F+ C -1 B+ F A-
 Mon, Feb 2 290 Boston University W 71 - 70 52%
 Sat, Feb 7 301 Lehigh W 70 - 69 55%
 Wed, Feb 11 222 Colgate L 70 - 74 36%
 Sun, Feb 15 318 @Loyola Maryland L 72 - 75 37%
 Wed, Feb 18 310 Lafayette W 71 - 69 57%
 Sun, Feb 22 315 @Bucknell L 68 - 71 38%
 Wed, Feb 25 290 @Boston University L 67 - 73 30%
 Sat, Feb 28 318 Loyola Maryland W 75 - 72 59%
Totals 10 - 19 7 - 11 -10 -5 C- F+ C -5 D C D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.4 0.7 0.2 1.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 4.3 1.4 0.1 7.3 4th
5th 0.8 7.6 3.4 0.2 12.0 5th
6th 0.1 6.3 6.6 0.4 13.4 6th
7th 2.2 11.0 1.4 14.5 7th
8th 0.5 8.9 5.7 0.1 15.2 8th
9th 0.3 5.6 9.5 1.0 0.0 16.4 9th
10th 1.3 5.9 9.7 2.7 0.0 19.7 10th
Total 1.3 6.2 15.8 23.4 24.7 17.1 8.6 2.4 0.4 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.4% 8.5% 8.5% 15.0 0.0 0.4
10-8 2.4% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.1 2.3
9-9 8.6% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.4 8.2
8-10 17.1% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.6 16.5
7-11 24.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.5 24.3
6-12 23.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 23.1
5-13 15.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 15.6
4-14 6.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.2
3-15 1.3% 1.3
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 16.0 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.8%