Holy Cross
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.2 #326
Expected Predictive Rating -8.1 #289
Pace 63.6 #324
Improvement -2.7 #312

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #316 C- F C D F
Defense #317 F B- D A- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #341 1.11 #241 -5.3 #333
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #68 0.85 #59 +3.6 #39
Three Pointers 43% #150 0.94 #265 -0.5 #202
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #240 -2.3 #240
Freethrows 14.5 #318 71% #216 10.4 #308
Second Chance 21.2% #359 0.98 #258 0.21 #352
Turnovers 17.0% #207
Total Offense -5.6 #316

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #58 1.33 #344 -6.8 #356
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #295 0.93 #356 -0.1 #184
Three Pointers 40% #215 1.03 #203 +0.3 #171
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #342 -6.6 #342
Freethrows 13.1 #25 73% #222 9.6 #338
Second Chance 27.5% #78 1.05 #203 0.29 #108
Turnovers 14.5% #304
Total Defense -4.6 #317

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.7% #327 1.8% #325
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.9% #203 10.9% #338
Possession Length 18.5 #300 17.5 #230
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #334 0.13 #51
Improvement -2.2 #315 -0.5 #221

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 3.6% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 3.4% 8.3% 2.2%
.500 or above in Conference 23.7% 43.2% 18.9%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.2% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 21.9% 10.6% 24.7%
First Four2.1% 2.7% 1.9%
First Round1.3% 2.1% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: American (Away) - 19.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 49 - 1311 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 66 @Providence L 79 - 89 3%  -10  0 - 1 +2 +1 B+ F C- +2 B+ B D
 Sat, Nov 8 8 @BYU L 53 - 98 1%  -28  0 - 2 -22 -11 D- F F -10 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 117 @Utah L 69 - 87 7%  -9  0 - 3 -12 -2 C- F A -10 D- B- F
 Sun, Nov 16 252 Hampton W 67 - 61 31%  +0  1 - 3 +1 +6 C+ C F -4 C- D D+
 Tue, Nov 18 247 @Brown L 49 - 68 21%  -12  1 - 4 -21 -13 D F F -11 F F C-
 Fri, Nov 21 285 @Sacred Heart L 66 - 79 27%  -9  1 - 5 -17 -8 C F F -9 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 190 Siena L 69 - 73 31%  -1  1 - 6 -9 -0 A F C -9 F A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 233 Northeastern W 76 - 59 37%  +13  2 - 6 +10 +2 A F A- +9 A+ C B
 Sat, Dec 6 203 @Fordham W 70 - 69 16%  -7  3 - 6 +2 +5 B- A+ F -4 F C+ D
 Tue, Dec 16 230 Dartmouth L 64 - 89 37%  -11  3 - 7 -32 -9 F F C -24 F D B
 Sat, Dec 20 196 @Harvard L 53 - 81 15%  -16  3 - 8 -27 -11 F D A+ -20 F F D+
 Wed, Dec 31 314 Bucknell W 65 - 58 58%  +7  4 - 8 1 - 0 -5 -3 C- F D -1 F B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 193 Navy L 58 - 65 31%  -6  4 - 9 1 - 1 -12 -8 F A+ D- -6 D- A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 7 320 @Lehigh L 58 - 66 37%  -5  4 - 10 1 - 2 -15 -10 F F A- -5 F C+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 241 @American L 65 - 74 20% 
 Wed, Jan 14 330 Army W 71 - 68 63% 
 Sat, Jan 17 318 @Lafayette L 68 - 72 37% 
 Wed, Jan 21 193 @Navy L 63 - 74 15% 
 Sat, Jan 24 241 American L 68 - 71 40% 
 Wed, Jan 28 205 @Colgate L 64 - 75 16% 
 Sat, Jan 31 330 @Army L 68 - 71 41% 
 Mon, Feb 2 258 Boston University L 68 - 70 44% 
 Sat, Feb 7 320 Lehigh W 70 - 67 60% 
 Wed, Feb 11 205 Colgate L 67 - 72 33% 
 Sun, Feb 15 336 @Loyola Maryland L 71 - 73 42% 
 Wed, Feb 18 318 Lafayette W 71 - 69 58% 
 Sun, Feb 22 314 @Bucknell L 65 - 69 35% 
 Wed, Feb 25 258 @Boston University L 65 - 73 25% 
 Sat, Feb 28 336 Loyola Maryland W 74 - 70 64% 
Totals 10 - 19 7 - 11 -10 -6 C- F C -5 F B- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.5 1.8 1.8 0.7 0.1 4.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.3 3.5 1.1 0.1 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 5.0 5.2 1.4 0.1 12.7 5th
6th 0.8 5.2 6.7 1.8 0.1 14.5 6th
7th 0.6 4.6 7.6 2.4 0.1 15.3 7th
8th 0.4 3.8 7.6 3.1 0.2 15.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.3 6.3 3.5 0.4 14.1 9th
10th 0.2 1.3 3.5 4.8 2.4 0.4 0.0 12.6 10th
Total 0.2 1.3 4.1 8.5 13.1 16.9 17.3 14.9 10.9 7.0 3.6 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 85.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 35.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 31.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 8.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.6% 16.7% 16.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5
12-6 1.6% 14.4% 14.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.3
11-7 3.6% 7.9% 7.9% 15.9 0.0 0.3 3.3
10-8 7.0% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.4 6.6
9-9 10.9% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.5 10.4
8-10 14.9% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.4 14.4
7-11 17.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 17.1
6-12 16.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 16.8
5-13 13.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 13.0
4-14 8.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.5
3-15 4.1% 4.1
2-16 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.3
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 16.0 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%