Holy Cross
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.3#319
Expected Predictive Rating-5.8#258
Pace64.8#273
Improvement-1.6#263

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#255
First Shot-1.6#226
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#279
Layup/Dunks-7.9#361
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#66
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.2#14
Freethrows-2.9#333
Improvement-3.3#331

Defense
Total Defense-6.2#341
First Shot-4.0#299
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#331
Layups/Dunks-8.1#362
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#153
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#128
Freethrows+2.1#52
Improvement+1.7#99
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 3.0% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 8.3% 17.2% 4.0%
.500 or above in Conference 5.7% 13.2% 2.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 59.3% 42.0% 67.5%
First Four2.2% 2.8% 1.9%
First Round0.9% 1.2% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Army (Away) - 32.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 6
Quad 410 - 1213 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 17   @ Wisconsin L 61-85 1%     0 - 1 -5.0 -2.1 -3.9
  Nov 08, 2024 121   @ Rhode Island L 77-91 10%     0 - 2 -9.2 +3.5 -11.9
  Nov 15, 2024 288   Sacred Heart W 82-75 41%     1 - 2 +0.0 +14.2 -13.4
  Nov 16, 2024 214   @ Brown W 73-65 20%     2 - 2 +7.6 +4.0 +4.1
  Nov 17, 2024 357   New Hampshire W 74-72 67%     3 - 2 -11.8 +4.6 -16.2
  Nov 24, 2024 199   @ Maine L 55-80 17%     3 - 3 -24.2 -12.9 -11.9
  Nov 29, 2024 97   @ Virginia L 41-67 7%     3 - 4 -18.6 -18.7 -5.6
  Dec 04, 2024 241   Harvard W 68-67 41%     4 - 4 -6.1 -3.2 -2.9
  Dec 07, 2024 209   Central Connecticut St. L 56-69 34%     4 - 5 -18.0 -8.7 -11.0
  Dec 17, 2024 187   @ Quinnipiac W 70-69 16%     5 - 5 +2.2 +1.5 +0.7
  Dec 20, 2024 246   @ Siena W 78-70 26%     6 - 5 +5.4 +13.9 -7.5
  Jan 02, 2025 325   Loyola Maryland W 74-72 62%     7 - 5 1 - 0 -10.5 -0.9 -9.5
  Jan 05, 2025 233   @ American L 64-75 23%     7 - 6 1 - 1 -12.7 -1.2 -13.1
  Jan 08, 2025 263   Navy W 70-59 46%     8 - 6 2 - 1 +2.8 -3.8 +7.0
  Jan 11, 2025 281   @ Lafayette L 65-82 31%     8 - 7 2 - 2 -21.2 -6.1 -15.7
  Jan 15, 2025 251   @ Bucknell L 82-86 26%     8 - 8 2 - 3 -6.8 +13.7 -20.7
  Jan 18, 2025 233   American L 65-74 40%     8 - 9 2 - 4 -15.6 -4.4 -12.4
  Jan 22, 2025 297   Army L 71-76 52%     8 - 10 2 - 5 -14.9 -9.2 -5.6
  Jan 25, 2025 325   @ Loyola Maryland W 70-65 43%     9 - 10 3 - 5 -2.5 -4.4 +2.1
  Jan 27, 2025 294   @ Boston University L 59-69 33%     9 - 11 3 - 6 -14.8 -9.6 -6.0
  Feb 01, 2025 267   Lehigh L 67-69 47%     9 - 12 3 - 7 -10.4 -3.2 -7.4
  Feb 05, 2025 297   @ Army L 70-74 32%    
  Feb 08, 2025 294   Boston University W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 12, 2025 239   Colgate L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 267   @ Lehigh L 68-74 28%    
  Feb 19, 2025 281   Lafayette L 68-69 52%    
  Feb 23, 2025 263   @ Navy L 68-74 27%    
  Feb 26, 2025 239   @ Colgate L 68-75 24%    
  Mar 01, 2025 251   Bucknell L 69-71 46%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 0.3 2.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 1.8 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.6 4.7 0.4 5.7 6th
7th 0.4 5.1 3.7 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.3 4.9 9.7 0.7 0.0 15.7 8th
9th 0.9 6.2 13.0 4.0 24.2 9th
10th 2.8 11.7 16.1 7.3 0.5 38.3 10th
Total 2.8 12.6 22.6 25.5 20.0 10.8 4.5 1.1 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 23.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 1.1% 13.1% 13.1% 16.0 0.1 0.9
9-9 4.5% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.4 4.1
8-10 10.8% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.6 10.2
7-11 20.0% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4 19.5
6-12 25.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.4 25.1
5-13 22.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 22.4
4-14 12.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.5
3-15 2.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.8
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.3 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.9%