Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#152
Expected Predictive Rating-0.8#177
Pace63.4#319
Improvement+2.9#41

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#106
First Shot+2.0#116
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#148
Layup/Dunks+0.2#174
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#90
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#193
Freethrows+0.7#134
Improvement+3.1#21

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#243
First Shot-3.9#303
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#65
Layups/Dunks+3.6#59
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#144
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.9#361
Freethrows+0.9#124
Improvement-0.2#193
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 6.3% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.3 13.9
.500 or above 39.5% 52.7% 28.3%
.500 or above in Conference 46.9% 61.1% 34.8%
Conference Champion 4.3% 6.8% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 9.8% 4.0% 14.6%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round4.9% 6.2% 3.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Away) - 45.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 78 - 13
Quad 46 - 214 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 268   @ Air Force L 67-73 61%     0 - 1 -8.8 -0.4 -9.0
  Nov 13, 2024 272   Georgia St. W 72-67 81%     1 - 1 -4.0 -8.0 +3.8
  Nov 17, 2024 278   @ Coastal Carolina W 71-53 64%     2 - 1 +14.6 +11.0 +7.3
  Nov 21, 2024 181   East Carolina W 86-78 55%     3 - 1 +7.0 +14.3 -7.2
  Nov 22, 2024 208   Toledo L 80-82 60%     3 - 2 -4.3 +7.5 -12.0
  Nov 23, 2024 134   James Madison L 65-71 45%     3 - 3 -4.5 -0.9 -4.2
  Dec 08, 2024 156   @ South Alabama L 74-76 39%     3 - 4 +1.1 +8.8 -7.9
  Dec 14, 2024 145   Utah Valley W 70-66 60%     4 - 4 +1.5 +0.2 +1.4
  Dec 17, 2024 54   @ Missouri L 72-83 12%     4 - 5 +1.9 +13.6 -13.2
  Dec 21, 2024 229   @ Eastern Kentucky W 91-80 53%     5 - 5 +10.4 +17.2 -6.6
  Jan 04, 2025 193   @ Kennesaw St. L 77-78 46%    
  Jan 09, 2025 109   @ Western Kentucky L 72-79 26%    
  Jan 11, 2025 129   @ Middle Tennessee L 69-74 34%    
  Jan 16, 2025 102   Louisiana Tech L 69-70 45%    
  Jan 18, 2025 140   Sam Houston St. W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 23, 2025 139   @ UTEP L 69-73 35%    
  Jan 25, 2025 201   @ New Mexico St. L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 30, 2025 261   Florida International W 77-68 78%    
  Feb 01, 2025 72   Liberty L 65-69 34%    
  Feb 06, 2025 129   Middle Tennessee W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 08, 2025 109   Western Kentucky L 75-76 46%    
  Feb 13, 2025 140   @ Sam Houston St. L 73-77 36%    
  Feb 15, 2025 102   @ Louisiana Tech L 66-73 25%    
  Feb 20, 2025 201   New Mexico St. W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 139   UTEP W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 27, 2025 72   @ Liberty L 62-72 18%    
  Mar 01, 2025 261   @ Florida International W 74-71 59%    
  Mar 08, 2025 193   Kennesaw St. W 80-75 67%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.7 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.0 5.5 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.0 6.4 3.0 0.3 0.0 13.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.6 6.6 3.5 0.4 13.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.2 3.9 0.5 0.0 13.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.2 3.4 0.5 0.0 12.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 3.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 9.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.8 1.0 0.2 5.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 4.5 7.4 10.4 13.0 14.3 13.7 11.8 9.0 6.0 3.4 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 96.4% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 87.5% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 68.3% 1.3    0.8 0.4 0.0
13-5 37.3% 1.3    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 11.1% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.3% 4.3 2.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 37.9% 37.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 21.4% 21.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.7% 21.9% 21.9% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
14-4 1.9% 18.8% 18.8% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5
13-5 3.4% 15.8% 15.8% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 2.9
12-6 6.0% 10.5% 10.5% 12.9 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.4
11-7 9.0% 8.7% 8.7% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 8.2
10-8 11.8% 6.8% 6.8% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 11.0
9-9 13.7% 5.0% 5.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 13.0
8-10 14.3% 3.4% 3.4% 15.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 13.9
7-11 13.0% 1.9% 1.9% 15.6 0.1 0.1 12.7
6-12 10.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.3
5-13 7.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.4
4-14 4.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.5
3-15 2.3% 2.3
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.4 95.1 0.0%