Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#130
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#111
Pace63.1#314
Improvement+3.8#44

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#126
First Shot+1.3#135
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#154
Layup/Dunks+0.1#184
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#110
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#202
Freethrows+0.8#126
Improvement-0.8#227

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#164
First Shot-2.0#240
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#41
Layups/Dunks+4.2#47
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#121
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.8#360
Freethrows+0.9#120
Improvement+4.6#13
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.0% 12.2% 9.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.0 13.4
.500 or above 95.4% 98.4% 91.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.4% 99.7% 96.4%
Conference Champion 47.7% 61.1% 27.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round11.0% 12.2% 9.3%
Second Round0.9% 0.9% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Home) - 59.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 310 - 611 - 10
Quad 46 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 277   @ Air Force L 67-73 71%     0 - 1 -9.9 -0.9 -9.6
  Nov 13, 2024 278   Georgia St. W 72-67 84%     1 - 1 -4.0 -10.5 +6.3
  Nov 17, 2024 309   @ Coastal Carolina W 71-53 77%     2 - 1 +11.9 +8.9 +6.7
  Nov 21, 2024 150   East Carolina W 86-78 54%     3 - 1 +8.8 +14.9 -6.0
  Nov 22, 2024 201   Toledo L 80-82 64%     3 - 2 -4.0 +6.7 -10.8
  Nov 23, 2024 137   James Madison L 65-71 52%     3 - 3 -4.6 -0.7 -4.6
  Dec 08, 2024 156   @ South Alabama L 74-76 45%     3 - 4 +1.0 +10.3 -9.4
  Dec 14, 2024 132   Utah Valley W 70-66 60%     4 - 4 +3.1 +1.3 +1.9
  Dec 17, 2024 23   @ Missouri L 72-83 8%     4 - 5 +6.5 +16.3 -11.3
  Dec 21, 2024 231   @ Eastern Kentucky W 91-80 62%     5 - 5 +9.5 +16.4 -6.7
  Jan 04, 2025 170   @ Kennesaw St. L 71-83 48%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -9.7 +2.1 -12.1
  Jan 09, 2025 115   @ Western Kentucky W 73-67 36%     6 - 6 1 - 1 +11.4 +5.3 +6.1
  Jan 11, 2025 120   @ Middle Tennessee L 64-81 38%     6 - 7 1 - 2 -12.2 -6.1 -6.0
  Jan 16, 2025 113   Louisiana Tech W 63-61 54%     7 - 7 2 - 2 +2.7 +5.7 -2.5
  Jan 18, 2025 181   Sam Houston St. W 70-62 70%     8 - 7 3 - 2 +4.4 +1.8 +3.5
  Jan 23, 2025 143   @ UTEP W 73-66 43%     9 - 7 4 - 2 +10.7 +4.2 +6.6
  Jan 25, 2025 166   @ New Mexico St. W 65-59 47%     10 - 7 5 - 2 +8.5 -1.6 +10.3
  Jan 30, 2025 243   Florida International W 71-67 81%     11 - 7 6 - 2 -3.4 +0.3 -3.5
  Feb 01, 2025 90   Liberty W 72-61 43%     12 - 7 7 - 2 +14.7 +9.4 +6.3
  Feb 06, 2025 120   Middle Tennessee W 71-69 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 115   Western Kentucky W 74-73 57%    
  Feb 13, 2025 181   @ Sam Houston St. W 72-71 50%    
  Feb 15, 2025 113   @ Louisiana Tech L 66-70 33%    
  Feb 20, 2025 166   New Mexico St. W 69-65 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 143   UTEP W 71-68 63%    
  Feb 27, 2025 90   @ Liberty L 63-70 25%    
  Mar 01, 2025 243   @ Florida International W 72-68 63%    
  Mar 08, 2025 170   Kennesaw St. W 75-71 68%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.5 12.6 18.2 10.8 3.9 0.7 47.7 1st
2nd 0.4 8.7 10.0 1.8 0.0 21.0 2nd
3rd 2.7 9.0 1.2 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.3 5.5 2.0 0.0 7.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 3.3 0.1 4.9 5th
6th 0.3 2.4 0.5 3.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.0 1.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.2 1.5 5.2 12.5 21.4 23.8 20.0 10.8 3.9 0.7 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.7    0.7
15-3 100.0% 3.9    3.9 0.0
14-4 99.8% 10.8    10.0 0.8
13-5 90.9% 18.2    11.2 6.4 0.6
12-6 52.8% 12.6    2.4 5.9 3.5 0.7 0.0
11-7 7.2% 1.5    0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 47.7% 47.7 28.2 13.3 4.6 1.4 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.7% 29.0% 29.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-3 3.9% 23.5% 23.5% 12.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 3.0
14-4 10.8% 16.3% 16.3% 12.6 0.8 0.8 0.2 9.1
13-5 20.0% 12.0% 12.0% 13.0 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.5 0.0 17.6
12-6 23.8% 10.9% 10.9% 13.3 0.3 1.4 0.9 0.1 21.2
11-7 21.4% 9.5% 9.5% 13.6 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 19.3
10-8 12.5% 6.2% 6.2% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 11.7
9-9 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 5.0
8-10 1.5% 4.1% 4.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.4
7-11 0.2% 0.2
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.1 2.3 4.9 3.0 0.6 0.0 89.0 0.0%