Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.1 196
Results Rating -3.8 232
Pace 63.4 318
Improvement +3.9 49

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 230 C- C- C B- B+
Defense C 171 C C+ C- D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 12 D 52% 316 +2.2 99
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% 243 D- 32% 337 -3.2 328
Three Pointers 38% 240 B- 36% 88 +0.0 180
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.4 26 D+ -2.4 266
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 204
Second Chance C- 28.9% 223 C- 0.99 244 C- 0.29 241
Turnovers C 17.2% 201
Freethrows B 0.35 49 D 68% 307 B- 0.24 120
Total Offense C- -2.0 230

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D- 35% 342 C+ 10.5% 149
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 28% 138 C- 6.0% 247
Three Pointers C- 81% 254 C 0.9% 177
Total D 49% 313 C- 6.2% 245

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 199 C+ 57% 150 -0.7 150
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 312 C 38% 179 -1.7 52
Three Pointers 46% 49 C 34% 162 +2.2 285
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.5 262 C+ -0.7 153
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 171
Second Chance B- 28.3% 95 C- 1.06 236 C+ 0.30 147
Turnovers C- 16.4% 202
Freethrows D+ 0.33 270 F 77% 358 D 0.26 315
Total Defense C -0.1 171

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 148 C 10.9% 176
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 240 D+ 3.3% 274
Three Pointers C 84% 189 D 0.2% 334
Total C- 57% 220 C- 4.8% 240

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 302 17.3 187
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 201 0.18 220
Improvement +3.4 #42 +0.5 #154

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 227 195 161
Results Rating Rank 251 221 178
Conference Record 8 - 12 10 - 10 12 - 8
Conference Finish 8 5 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 5% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.8
.500 or above 6% 7% 1%
.500 or above in Conference 66% 78% 31%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 1% 0% 2%
First Four1% 1% 2%
First Round4% 5% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Delaware (Home) - 74.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 34 - 76 - 10
Quad 47 - 713 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 14 236 Coastal Carolina W 74 - 67 69% +7  80% 1 - 0 C -0 C+ +2 C- A- C C -1 A+ F F+
 Wed, Nov 19 182 South Alabama L 65 - 71 59% +6  81% 1 - 1 D -10 F+ -8 C- D- C- C- -3 C- C D
 Mon, Nov 24 143 @Arkansas St. L 63 - 74 28% -7  13% 1 - 2 D+ -7 F -14 F F+ F A- +7 B- A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 129 North Dakota St. L 43 - 56 35% -10  13% 1 - 3 D -11 F -27 F D- F A+ +14 C+ A+ C
 Mon, Dec 1 342 North Alabama L 66 - 73 89% +2  61% 1 - 4 F -22 F -13 F B C+ F+ -9 C+ D F+
 Sat, Dec 13 289 @Georgia St. L 73 - 77 60% -5  5% 1 - 5 D -9 C+ +2 F+ B+ A+ F -11 D D F
 Wed, Dec 17 279 Eastern Kentucky L 59 - 62 76% -5  3% 1 - 6 D- -13 F -18 F F C B+ +5 B+ D- A+
 Sat, Dec 20 131 @East Tennessee St. W 81 - 75 25% +1  46% 2 - 6 B +11 A+ +19 A+ C+ C D- -7 F B B-
 Mon, Dec 29 147 Western Kentucky W 78 - 67 51% +12  89% 3 - 6 1 - 0 B +9 B- +4 A+ F F B +5 A- B+ B-
 Fri, Jan 2 265 @Delaware W 67 - 64 53% +4  86% 4 - 6 2 - 0 C +0 C +1 C C+ F C -0 D A F
 Sun, Jan 4 107 @Liberty L 69 - 78 20% -4  23% 4 - 7 2 - 1 C- -2 C +1 F+ C+ A- D+ -3 A+ F D
 Wed, Jan 7 184 Florida International W 71 - 64 60% +1  56% 5 - 7 3 - 1 C+ +2 C -0 A- A- F B- +3 C A B-
 Sat, Jan 10 165 @Kennesaw St. L 82 - 88 32% -5  2% 5 - 8 3 - 2 C- -3 B- +4 A C- C- D- -7 C- F D-
 Wed, Jan 14 114 Sam Houston St. L 62 - 77 42% -7  1% 5 - 9 3 - 3 F+ -15 D- -7 D D+ B F -10 F D+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 215 Louisiana Tech W 64 - 60 65% +10  98% 6 - 9 4 - 3 C- -2 C+ +3 C+ C- C- D+ -4 C+ F D+
 Fri, Jan 23 167 Middle Tennessee W 75 - 58 55% +9  95% 7 - 9 5 - 3 B+ +14 B+ +9 A F C+ A- +7 A B- D
 Wed, Jan 28 184 @Florida International W 78 - 74 37% -4  17% 8 - 9 6 - 3 B- +5 D -5 C+ F C A +10 C A A+
 Sat, Jan 31 204 @Missouri St. L 67 - 74 40% -7  6% 8 - 10 6 - 4 D+ -6 D- -6 F A F C -0 D+ F+ C
 Thu, Feb 5 147 @Western Kentucky W 71 - 66 29% +1  52% 9 - 10 7 - 4 B +9 D+ -3 F A- F A+ +12 A A+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 165 Kennesaw St. W 77 - 58 55% +11  92% 10 - 10 8 - 4 A- +16 C+ +3 B C C+ A+ +13 A+ D+ C
 Wed, Feb 11 243 UTEP L 64 - 69 70% -0  46% 10 - 11 8 - 5 D- -12 D+ -3 A- D+ F+ F -11 F A- B-
 Sat, Feb 14 163 New Mexico St. L 70 - 79 55% -5  12% 10 - 12 8 - 6 D- -12 D+ -4 F C A+ F+ -9 C+ F D
 Wed, Feb 18 215 @Louisiana Tech L 71 - 77 42% -11  0% 10 - 13 8 - 7 D+ -6 C- -0 B+ F C+ D -6 F B B
 Sat, Feb 21 114 @Sam Houston St. L 78 - 82 22% -3  29% 10 - 14 8 - 8 C+ +2 B+ +8 B+ F A+ D -6 C- C C-
 Thu, Feb 26 265 Delaware W 70 - 63 74%
 Sat, Feb 28 107 Liberty L 69 - 72 39%
 Thu, Mar 5 163 @New Mexico St. L 68 - 73 33%
 Sat, Mar 7 243 @UTEP L 66 - 67 47%
Totals 12 - 16 10 - 10 -2 C- -2 B+ D+ B+ C +0 B- D B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D D- B- D+ 47% 32% 38% B+ C- C- C- C- C B D B- C C+ C C C+ 38% 16% 46% D+ C B- C- C+ C- D+ F D
1.06 52% 32% 36% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.0 .29 17% .35 68% .24 1.09 57% 38% 34% -1 +1 1.02 28% 1.1 .30 16% .33 77% .27
Nov
14		 Coastal Carolina C+ D- F B D- 47% 14% 39% A+ C- D+ A+ A- C A D+ A- C B+ F+ A+ A+ 32% 21% 47% F+ A+ D- F F F+ C- F F
1.11 48% 14% 37% -7 +1 0.92 24% 1.7 .39 12% .39 70% .27 1.00 47% 45% 16% -15 0 0.72 30% 1.3 .40 12% .27 94% .26
Nov
19		 South Alabama F+ F D B- D+ 33% 5% 62% B C- D D D- C- F F F C- B F A- C 57% 19% 23% D C- B+ F C D F B- F+
0.98 44% 33% 35% -4 +2 0.98 27% 1.0 .27 18% .07 25% .02 1.07 52% 56% 27% -3 +2 1.00 18% 1.5 .27 11% .41 63% .25
Nov
24		 Arkansas St. F F A+ F F 38% 16% 46% B- F B- F F+ F A+ F+ A+ A- B A+ C- B 39% 8% 53% D- B- A+ C A+ B- F D- F
0.86 47% 75% 17% -10 +1 0.84 31% 0.6 .18 20% .50 66% .33 1.01 53% 0% 35% -5 +2 0.96 22% 1.0 .22 22% .51 79% .40
Nov
26		 North Dakota St. F F F F F 29% 29% 43% F+ F C F D- F A+ F A+ A+ F A+ F C 23% 34% 43% A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ C D- A+ C
0.69 42% 17% 22% -18 -2 0.62 29% 0.6 .17 24% .49 57% .28 0.90 70% 20% 42% +2 -3 1.00 23% 0.4 .09 16% .33 59% .19
Dec
1		 North Alabama F F F D+ F 46% 8% 46% B F D+ A+ B C+ A- F F+ F+ A- D B- B- 52% 10% 38% F C+ C- D- D F+ C- F D
1.00 41% 0% 32% -13 +2 0.81 31% 1.5 .45 14% .35 45% .16 1.11 44% 40% 30% -9 +2 0.88 32% 1.2 .37 14% .32 78% .25
Dec
13		 Georgia St. C+ F F B F 54% 10% 37% A F+ C- A+ B+ A+ B- F D- F A+ F D+ D- 21% 26% 53% C D C- F+ D F F F+ F
1.11 43% 20% 37% -8 +3 0.90 32% 1.3 .41 6% .32 50% .16 1.17 33% 45% 35% -3 -2 0.93 28% 1.2 .34 11% .54 84% .46
Dec
17		 Eastern Kentucky F F B+ F F 48% 14% 38% B+ F D+ F F C A+ B- A+ B+ A+ B D+ A 31% 13% 56% F B+ F C+ D- A+ B F C-
0.93 45% 50% 25% -10 +1 0.86 31% 0.5 .17 16% .47 76% .36 0.98 29% 33% 36% -8 0 0.87 39% 1.1 .42 27% .22 90% .19
Dec
20		 East Tennessee St. A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 45% 5% 50% A- A+ A+ F C+ C A+ F A+ D- B F F F 39% 21% 39% B- F A- D+ B B- F D+ F
1.31 61% 50% 55% +18 +2 1.43 42% 0.7 .31 19% .54 67% .36 1.21 53% 50% 53% +12 0 1.26 21% 1.2 .25 18% .57 79% .45
Dec
29		 Western Kentucky B- B A+ A+ A+ 46% 3% 51% A+ A+ F+ F F F A+ C A+ B A A- A A 31% 13% 56% C- A- F A+ B+ B- D A C
1.13 63% 100% 50% +16 +3 1.40 20% 0.6 .12 25% .75 69% .52 0.97 41% 29% 27% -13 +1 0.78 44% 0.6 .26 16% .36 67% .24
Jan
2		 Delaware C D+ F C- D 51% 3% 46% A+ C D A+ C+ F A+ F A+ C D F C- D+ 28% 10% 62% D D C A+ A F A+ F+ A+
1.11 55% 0% 33% -3 +3 1.03 26% 1.3 .33 18% .53 69% .37 1.06 64% 60% 35% +5 +1 1.14 19% 0.3 .06 13% .12 83% .10
Jan
4		 Liberty C D- F D F 51% 10% 39% A F+ B- D+ C+ A- A+ A+ A+ D+ A A+ C- A+ 50% 4% 46% D+ A+ F B F D F F F
1.08 48% 20% 32% -8 +2 0.90 34% 1.2 .40 14% .35 89% .31 1.23 50% 0% 36% -4 +3 1.00 31% 0.9 .28 11% .49 79% .39
Jan
7		 Florida International C C- A A+ B+ 44% 10% 46% B A- B- A- A- F A+ B- A+ B- C- F+ A+ C 46% 23% 31% C+ C A+ F+ A B- D- F F
1.10 56% 50% 42% +6 +2 1.17 38% 1.2 .46 25% .41 75% .31 0.99 59% 45% 27% -1 0 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 19% .36 84% .30
Jan
10		 Kennesaw St. B- C- A+ A+ A- 55% 4% 40% A+ A C+ D+ C- C- B F D+ D- C+ A+ C- C 48% 9% 43% D- C- C+ F F D- F D- F
1.13 54% 50% 47% +6 +3 1.21 31% 0.9 .28 17% .45 63% .28 1.21 55% 25% 35% -2 +2 1.02 33% 1.5 .52 14% .54 74% .40
Jan
14		 Sam Houston St. D- F A+ F+ F+ 47% 13% 40% A- D C- D- D+ B B F C F F A+ F F 49% 11% 40% F F B+ F D+ B A+ C A+
1.00 48% 50% 28% -7 +2 0.91 29% 0.9 .26 14% .36 63% .23 1.24 74% 20% 47% +14 +2 1.34 30% 1.3 .39 19% .14 71% .10
Jan
17		 Louisiana Tech C+ D+ F A C 45% 9% 45% A- C+ D+ C+ C- C- A- A- A D+ B+ F+ A C+ 40% 31% 29% B+ C+ F D F D+ C F F
1.10 50% 0% 40% -3 +2 1.00 30% 1.1 .33 19% .38 78% .30 1.03 47% 46% 25% -6 -1 0.88 44% 0.9 .38 17% .27 92% .25
Jan
23		 Middle Tennessee B+ D- F A+ A 60% 9% 32% A+ A C F F C+ B A A A- A+ F B+ A+ 40% 17% 43% D- A B- C+ B- D C- A+ B-
1.23 50% 25% 60% +7 +3 1.21 26% 0.6 .15 15% .37 84% .31 0.95 42% 50% 30% -7 +1 0.89 28% 0.9 .25 13% .26 57% .15
Jan
28		 Florida International D A F F C- 62% 8% 30% A+ C+ F C- F C A+ D A+ A C D+ A- B- 50% 10% 40% F C A+ C+ A A+ D- D- F+
0.98 68% 25% 20% -1 +3 1.06 18% 1.0 .18 20% .50 69% .34 0.93 58% 40% 29% -3 +2 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 24% .36 73% .26
Jan
31		 Missouri St. D- B B F D- 24% 50% 26% F F A+ D A F A+ B A+ C F C+ C+ D- 21% 32% 47% A D+ D F+ F+ C D+ A C+
0.98 70% 43% 18% -1 -5 0.90 50% 0.9 .47 26% .54 78% .42 1.08 90% 33% 32% +4 -3 1.04 35% 1.3 .44 18% .37 57% .21
Feb
5		 Western Kentucky D+ F A F F 56% 26% 18% B+ F A- B A- F A+ B- A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A 26% 22% 52% A- A B+ A+ A+ C- F+ F F
0.99 41% 50% 14% -12 +1 0.79 37% 1.0 .37 22% .90 72% .65 0.92 57% 17% 25% -12 -1 0.76 27% 0.6 .16 14% .39 88% .34
Feb
7		 Kennesaw St. C+ C- C+ A B 41% 11% 48% B B C C+ C C+ B- D C A+ A B- A+ A+ 31% 12% 57% B- A+ B+ F D+ C C C C
1.16 53% 40% 41% +3 +1 1.11 30% 1.0 .30 15% .43 71% .30 0.88 44% 33% 21% -16 +1 0.71 30% 1.2 .36 17% .34 68% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
11		 UTEP D+ C+ D- A+ A- 37% 22% 41% C+ A- D+ C- D+ F+ D- F F F C- F+ F F 24% 17% 59% F+ F C+ A+ A- B- F D- F
1.07 60% 33% 47% +8 0 1.17 31% 1.0 .31 22% .30 57% .17 1.15 60% 43% 46% +12 -1 1.24 25% 0.7 .18 18% .39 74% .29
Feb
14		 New Mexico St. D+ F F D- F 43% 16% 41% B+ F F+ A+ C A+ F+ F F F+ C A+ B- B+ 42% 9% 49% F C+ B+ F F D F F F
1.06 40% 22% 29% -13 +1 0.78 23% 1.6 .37 5% .30 68% .21 1.20 58% 0% 32% -5 +2 0.96 28% 1.6 .44 12% .54 84% .45
Feb
18		 Louisiana Tech C- F D A+ B+ 36% 19% 45% C- B+ F F+ F C+ A- F C+ D F A F+ F 50% 15% 35% F F A D+ B B F+ B+ D+
1.01 41% 33% 48% +2 0 1.06 24% 0.9 .21 17% .38 64% .24 1.10 83% 29% 38% +13 +2 1.30 26% 0.9 .22 21% .34 58% .20
Feb
21		 Sam Houston St. B+ A+ F A- B+ 39% 22% 39% C B+ F F F A+ C- A C+ D D B- D+ D+ 38% 20% 42% C+ C- B D C C- F F F
1.16 76% 17% 38% +5 0 1.11 20% 0.7 .13 10% .30 78% .23 1.22 65% 33% 37% +3 0 1.09 32% 1.1 .35 16% .50 82% .41



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.6 2nd
3rd 2.8 10.6 4.2 17.6 3rd
4th 0.8 16.2 10.7 0.6 28.4 4th
5th 5.7 14.5 1.2 21.4 5th
6th 0.1 12.3 4.1 0.0 16.6 6th
7th 1.4 7.8 0.4 9.7 7th
8th 2.9 0.8 3.7 8th
9th 1.7 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.3 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 6.4 27.4 38.1 22.7 5.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 5.3% 9.8% 9.8% 14.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 4.8
11-9 22.7% 7.8% 7.8% 15.2 0.1 1.2 0.5 20.9
10-10 38.1% 4.4% 4.4% 15.8 0.3 1.4 36.4
9-11 27.4% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6 26.9
8-12 6.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 6.4
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 15.5 95.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 14.2 10.2 58.0 31.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7%
Lose Out 3.7%