Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#122
Expected Predictive Rating+3.5#116
Pace63.3#309
Improvement+2.3#101

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#149
First Shot+0.6#154
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#170
Layup/Dunks-0.2#189
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#113
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#206
Freethrows+0.7#134
Improvement-2.6#300

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#122
First Shot-0.6#198
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#37
Layups/Dunks+4.4#45
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#108
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.0#357
Freethrows+1.1#108
Improvement+4.9#13
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.8% 33.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.2 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round15.8% 33.0% 0.0%
Second Round1.0% 2.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 310 - 512 - 10
Quad 46 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 296   @ Air Force L 67-73 76%     0 - 1 -11.0 -0.6 -10.9
  Nov 13, 2024 254   Georgia St. W 72-67 83%     1 - 1 -2.7 -10.8 +7.8
  Nov 17, 2024 317   @ Coastal Carolina W 71-53 80%     2 - 1 +11.4 +8.4 +6.6
  Nov 21, 2024 164   East Carolina W 86-78 60%     3 - 1 +7.8 +13.6 -5.7
  Nov 22, 2024 248   Toledo L 80-82 75%     3 - 2 -6.7 +4.3 -11.2
  Nov 23, 2024 166   James Madison L 65-71 61%     3 - 3 -6.4 -3.3 -3.7
  Dec 08, 2024 132   @ South Alabama L 74-76 42%     3 - 4 +2.6 +9.7 -7.3
  Dec 14, 2024 114   Utah Valley W 70-66 57%     4 - 4 +4.7 +1.5 +3.3
  Dec 17, 2024 18   @ Missouri L 72-83 6%     4 - 5 +8.5 +14.4 -7.5
  Dec 21, 2024 195   @ Eastern Kentucky W 91-80 56%     5 - 5 +11.8 +17.8 -5.8
  Jan 04, 2025 137   @ Kennesaw St. L 71-83 43%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -7.9 +3.8 -12.0
  Jan 09, 2025 160   @ Western Kentucky W 73-67 49%     6 - 6 1 - 1 +8.7 +3.4 +5.3
  Jan 11, 2025 118   @ Middle Tennessee L 64-81 37%     6 - 7 1 - 2 -11.3 -6.4 -4.8
  Jan 16, 2025 119   Louisiana Tech W 63-61 59%     7 - 7 2 - 2 +2.0 +5.1 -2.7
  Jan 18, 2025 175   Sam Houston St. W 70-62 72%     8 - 7 3 - 2 +4.2 +0.7 +4.4
  Jan 23, 2025 159   @ UTEP W 73-66 48%     9 - 7 4 - 2 +9.9 +3.7 +6.3
  Jan 25, 2025 126   @ New Mexico St. W 65-59 41%     10 - 7 5 - 2 +10.8 +1.2 +9.9
  Jan 30, 2025 252   Florida International W 71-67 83%     11 - 7 6 - 2 -3.7 +1.2 -4.8
  Feb 01, 2025 66   Liberty W 72-61 38%     12 - 7 7 - 2 +16.5 +10.2 +7.3
  Feb 06, 2025 118   Middle Tennessee W 77-63 58%     13 - 7 8 - 2 +14.2 +9.1 +6.0
  Feb 08, 2025 160   Western Kentucky W 85-83 69%     14 - 7 9 - 2 -0.8 +12.2 -13.0
  Feb 13, 2025 175   @ Sam Houston St. L 61-66 53%     14 - 8 9 - 3 -3.3 -10.7 +7.2
  Feb 15, 2025 119   @ Louisiana Tech W 70-68 38%     15 - 8 10 - 3 +7.5 +6.3 +1.3
  Feb 20, 2025 126   New Mexico St. L 52-61 62%     15 - 9 10 - 4 -9.7 -8.0 -3.3
  Feb 22, 2025 159   UTEP W 73-65 68%     16 - 9 11 - 4 +5.5 +1.4 +4.2
  Feb 27, 2025 66   @ Liberty L 55-59 21%     16 - 10 11 - 5 +7.0 -3.4 +9.8
  Mar 01, 2025 252   @ Florida International W 84-79 2OT 67%     17 - 10 12 - 5 +2.8 +2.9 -0.7
  Mar 08, 2025 137   Kennesaw St. L 70-74 64%     17 - 11 12 - 6 -5.4 +1.5 -7.1
  Mar 12, 2025 252   Florida International W 65-56 76%     18 - 11 +4.1 -0.2 +5.1
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 100.0% 15.8% 15.8% 13.2 1.7 9.3 4.7 0.1 84.2
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.8% 15.8% 0.0% 13.2 1.7 9.3 4.7 0.1 84.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 15.8% 100.0% 13.2 10.8 58.9 29.9 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 32.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 52.1%