Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.5 #208
Expected Predictive Rating -4.9 #245
Pace 62.7 #336
Improvement +4.5 #14

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #238 D+ C- C- B A+
Defense #167 C B C- F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #11 0.99 #333 +1.3 #131
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #341 0.55 #355 -4.6 #354
Three Pointers 41% #175 1.03 #162 +0.5 #163
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #257 -2.8 #257
Freethrows 22.2 #12 65% #344 14.5 #69
Second Chance 29.1% #234 1.04 #189 0.30 #214
Turnovers 17.6% #240
Total Offense -2.4 #238

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #195 1.07 #75 +1.9 #108
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #286 0.76 #188 +1.2 #101
Three Pointers 45% #74 1.05 #236 -2.8 #295
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #160 +0.3 #161
Freethrows 20.4 #319 79% #356 16.2 #21
Second Chance 28.0% #88 0.95 #71 0.27 #61
Turnovers 15.8% #228
Total Defense -0.1 #167

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.8% #13 0.9% #258
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.0% #315 -1.6% #149
Possession Length 18.6 #311 17.9 #289
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #276 0.16 #127
Improvement +3.9 #11 +0.5 #149

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.6% 5.1% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 23.8% 38.2% 17.2%
.500 or above in Conference 57.3% 74.7% 49.4%
Conference Champion 3.4% 6.8% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 0.8% 4.5%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
First Round3.4% 5.0% 2.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Away) - 31.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 35 - 86 - 11
Quad 47 - 613 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 14 270 Coastal Carolina W 74 - 67 74%  +7  1 - 0 -2 +3 D+ A- B- -5 A+ F D+
 Wed, Nov 19 200 South Alabama L 65 - 71 61%  +6  1 - 1 -11 -5 C F D -6 D C+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 126 @Arkansas St. L 63 - 74 24%  -7  1 - 2 -6 -11 F C- F +5 C A+ A-
 Wed, Nov 26 146 North Dakota St. L 43 - 56 37%  -10  1 - 3 -12 -24 F F F +11 C- A+ C
 Mon, Dec 1 293 North Alabama L 66 - 73 77%  +2  1 - 4 -17 -7 F A C+ -11 C- C- F
 Sat, Dec 13 304 @Georgia St. L 73 - 77 59%  -5  1 - 5 -9 +4 F B A+ -14 C- D- F
 Wed, Dec 17 254 Eastern Kentucky L 59 - 62 71%  -5  1 - 6 -11 -14 F F F +3 B D A+
 Sat, Dec 20 128 @East Tennessee St. W 81 - 75 24%  +1  2 - 6 +11 +21 A+ B C -9 F A- C+
 Mon, Dec 29 155 Western Kentucky W 78 - 67 52%  +12  3 - 6 1 - 0 +8 +5 A+ F F +3 A A- B
 Fri, Jan 2 277 @Delaware W 67 - 64 54%  +4  4 - 6 2 - 0 -1 +5 C- B- F -5 D A+ F
 Sun, Jan 4 99 @Liberty L 69 - 78 16%  -4  4 - 7 2 - 1 -1 +5 D B- A- -7 A D D+
 Wed, Jan 7 164 Florida International W 71 - 64 54%  +1  5 - 7 3 - 1 +3 +1 A+ B- F +3 C+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 162 @Kennesaw St. L 71 - 76 31% 
 Wed, Jan 14 134 Sam Houston St. L 72 - 73 46% 
 Sat, Jan 17 228 Louisiana Tech W 64 - 60 65% 
 Sat, Jan 24 123 Middle Tennessee L 67 - 69 45% 
 Wed, Jan 28 164 @Florida International L 71 - 76 32% 
 Sat, Jan 31 192 @Missouri St. L 64 - 67 38% 
 Thu, Feb 5 155 @Western Kentucky L 70 - 76 31% 
 Sat, Feb 7 162 Kennesaw St. W 74 - 73 53% 
 Wed, Feb 11 244 UTEP W 68 - 63 68% 
 Sat, Feb 14 136 New Mexico St. L 68 - 69 46% 
 Wed, Feb 18 228 @Louisiana Tech L 61 - 63 44% 
 Sat, Feb 21 134 @Sam Houston St. L 69 - 76 26% 
 Thu, Feb 26 277 Delaware W 67 - 60 74% 
 Sat, Feb 28 99 Liberty L 66 - 71 33% 
 Thu, Mar 5 136 @New Mexico St. L 65 - 72 26% 
 Sat, Mar 7 244 @UTEP L 65 - 66 47% 
Totals 12 - 16 10 - 10 -3 -2 D+ C- C- +0 C B C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 3.1 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 8.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.3 3.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.1 4.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.4 4.4 5.5 1.2 0.1 11.6 5th
6th 0.1 3.0 6.2 2.1 0.1 11.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 6.4 3.1 0.2 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.6 4.4 0.6 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.5 1.0 0.0 8.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.6 1.3 0.0 6.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.9 1.1 0.1 4.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.5 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.4 8.4 12.1 15.2 15.5 14.3 11.2 7.9 4.7 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 93.7% 0.3    0.2 0.1
16-4 71.6% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
15-5 44.1% 1.1    0.5 0.4 0.1
14-6 20.0% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
13-7 3.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.3% 17.5% 17.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-4 1.0% 17.5% 17.5% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8
15-5 2.4% 12.5% 12.5% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.1
14-6 4.7% 11.3% 11.3% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.2
13-7 7.9% 8.2% 8.2% 14.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 7.3
12-8 11.2% 6.7% 6.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.0 10.4
11-9 14.3% 3.2% 3.2% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 13.8
10-10 15.5% 1.8% 1.8% 15.8 0.1 0.2 15.3
9-11 15.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 15.0
8-12 12.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 12.0
7-13 8.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.4
6-14 4.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.3
5-15 1.9% 1.9
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 14.7 96.4 0.0%