Kennesaw St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.1 #142
Expected Predictive Rating +0.4 #157
Pace 77.6 #17
Improvement +3.0 #59

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #136 C C C B B
Defense #158 C+ C D+ F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #80 1.11 #236 +1.2 #132
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #317 0.71 #261 -2.9 #318
Three Pointers 44% #121 0.98 #231 +0.9 #142
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #197 -0.9 #197
Freethrows 0.36 #26 70% #248 0.25 #59
Second Chance 35.2% #56 0.91 #320 0.32 #155
Turnovers 16.8% #187
Total Offense +1.1 #136

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #45 1.00 #24 +0.3 #169
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #235 0.72 #114 +1.1 #111
Three Pointers 37% #281 1.09 #287 +0.5 #159
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #120 +1.8 #120
Freethrows 0.39 #359 75% #304 0.29 #359
Second Chance 30.2% #160 1.01 #163 0.31 #160
Turnovers 15.3% #261
Total Defense +0.0 #158

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.3% #40 1.3% #287
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.0% #241 -4.7% #86
Possession Length 15.2 #22 17.1 #165
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #156 0.18 #230
Improvement +0.7 #142 +2.4 #54

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.5% 11.1% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.4 13.8
.500 or above 92.2% 97.1% 87.1%
.500 or above in Conference 86.3% 94.5% 77.8%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round9.5% 11.1% 7.8%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Away) - 51.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 36 - 46 - 9
Quad 412 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 317 @Florida A&M W 92 - 72 77% +9  1 - 0 +13 +6 A- D- C +5 A+ C F
 Sun, Nov 16 70 South Florida L 89 - 108 35% -9  1 - 1 -14 +7 D+ A+ B- -19 D+ D+ F+
 Mon, Nov 24 233 Rice W 89 - 84 OT 69% -1  2 - 1 +1 +1 D+ C C -0 C B C
 Tue, Nov 25 335 Oral Roberts L 83 - 91 87% +1  2 - 2 -19 -3 D+ D F -16 F B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 223 @Florida Gulf Coast W 102 - 100 OT 56% +0  3 - 2 +2 +8 B D F+ -7 C- B- D-
 Tue, Dec 2 337 Jackson St. W 88 - 73 92% +9  4 - 2 +1 +5 F A B+ -5 B+ F C
 Sat, Dec 6 268 Georgia St. W 92 - 69 83% +16  5 - 2 +14 +1 A C F +9 A+ D D-
 Wed, Dec 17 154 @Middle Tennessee L 67 - 68 43% -7  5 - 3 0 - 1 +2 -2 F+ B- D- +4 A A B+
 Sun, Dec 21 20 Alabama L 81 - 92 7% -18  5 - 4 +6 +4 C+ A+ F +3 A+ B D
 Fri, Jan 2 89 @Liberty L 73 - 81 22% -8  5 - 5 0 - 2 +1 -1 F C- C+ +3 C+ B- B+
 Sun, Jan 4 286 @Delaware L 52 - 67 70% -5  5 - 6 0 - 3 -19 -17 F D- F -4 D B- D-
 Wed, Jan 7 182 Missouri St. W 90 - 80 71% +8  6 - 6 1 - 3 +5 +10 A+ C+ F -5 C+ C C-
 Sat, Jan 10 191 Jacksonville St. W 88 - 82 72% +5  7 - 6 2 - 3 +1 +11 C A+ B -10 F C C-
 Wed, Jan 14 188 Florida International W 89 - 86 72% -4  8 - 6 3 - 3 -2 +9 B D A+ -12 B+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 17 156 @Western Kentucky W 81 - 65 43% +5  9 - 6 4 - 3 +19 +9 C+ D B +10 B+ A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 21 108 @Sam Houston St. L 87 - 93 30% -5  9 - 7 4 - 4 +1 +13 C B- A+ -12 F C+ F
 Fri, Jan 23 215 @Louisiana Tech L 76 - 82 55% +2  9 - 8 4 - 5 -6 +11 C C+ B+ -18 F F C-
 Wed, Jan 28 156 Western Kentucky W 72 - 69 66% -0  10 - 8 5 - 5 -0 -2 C C D+ +2 A+ D D
 Sat, Jan 31 167 New Mexico St. W 76 - 53 68% +15  11 - 8 6 - 5 +19 +4 C A- B+ +17 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 7 191 @Jacksonville St. W 75 - 74 51%
 Thu, Feb 12 154 Middle Tennessee W 77 - 73 64%
 Sat, Feb 14 108 Sam Houston St. W 83 - 82 53%
 Wed, Feb 18 182 @Missouri St. L 75 - 76 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 215 Louisiana Tech W 75 - 68 75%
 Thu, Feb 26 89 Liberty L 77 - 79 43%
 Sat, Feb 28 286 Delaware W 78 - 67 86%
 Thu, Mar 5 257 @UTEP W 76 - 72 62%
 Sat, Mar 7 167 @New Mexico St. L 77 - 78 45%
Totals 16 - 12 11 - 9 +1 +1 C C C +0 C+ C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 1st
2nd 0.2 3.4 8.2 5.4 1.2 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.3 12.2 6.4 0.5 23.6 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 10.0 6.0 0.4 18.5 4th
5th 0.4 6.2 7.4 0.7 0.0 14.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 6.6 1.5 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.5 4.3 2.4 0.1 7.4 7th
8th 0.2 1.6 2.4 0.2 4.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.2 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.5 9.4 17.6 23.6 22.4 15.1 6.2 1.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 12.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 1.4% 24.0% 24.0% 12.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0
14-6 6.2% 20.0% 20.0% 13.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 5.0
13-7 15.1% 14.9% 14.9% 13.2 0.3 1.3 0.7 0.0 12.8
12-8 22.4% 11.7% 11.7% 13.6 0.1 1.1 1.3 0.2 19.8
11-9 23.6% 7.4% 7.4% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.3 21.9
10-10 17.6% 4.5% 4.5% 14.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 16.8
9-11 9.4% 4.2% 4.2% 14.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 9.0
8-12 3.5% 2.5% 2.5% 15.2 0.1 0.0 3.4
7-13 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 13.6 90.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.2 1.5 80.0 16.9 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%