Kennesaw St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#170
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#140
Pace77.3#14
Improvement+1.1#139

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#204
First Shot-5.1#316
After Offensive Rebound+4.1#13
Layup/Dunks-6.6#350
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#330
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#158
Freethrows+3.8#18
Improvement-1.4#270

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#147
First Shot-0.6#201
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#65
Layups/Dunks-1.2#220
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#53
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#98
Freethrows-3.0#346
Improvement+2.5#53
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.1% 5.7% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 46.7% 61.2% 32.1%
.500 or above in Conference 60.5% 76.3% 44.6%
Conference Champion 4.2% 7.0% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round5.1% 5.7% 4.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Home) - 50.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 51 - 6
Quad 37 - 88 - 14
Quad 47 - 115 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 161   @ California Baptist L 84-88 39%     0 - 1 -1.2 +7.0 -8.0
  Nov 16, 2024 283   Presbyterian W 85-67 80%     1 - 1 +8.8 +9.2 +0.2
  Nov 20, 2024 242   Abilene Christian W 84-78 75%     2 - 1 -1.3 +8.0 -9.5
  Nov 24, 2024 63   Rutgers W 79-77 26%     3 - 1 +8.4 +0.4 +7.8
  Nov 28, 2024 67   UC Irvine L 59-76 22%     3 - 2 -9.0 -9.5 +1.6
  Nov 29, 2024 160   Towson W 67-63 OT 48%     4 - 2 +4.4 -1.2 +5.7
  Nov 30, 2024 148   Kent St. L 60-67 46%     4 - 3 -6.0 -7.7 +1.5
  Dec 06, 2024 278   @ Georgia St. W 81-77 65%     5 - 3 +0.0 -0.5 +0.3
  Dec 18, 2024 64   @ Santa Clara L 74-94 15%     5 - 4 -9.0 +0.0 -7.5
  Dec 21, 2024 146   @ San Jose St. L 65-89 36%     5 - 5 -20.4 -12.1 -6.6
  Jan 04, 2025 130   Jacksonville St. W 83-71 52%     6 - 5 1 - 0 +11.3 +11.2 +0.4
  Jan 09, 2025 120   @ Middle Tennessee L 79-84 32%     6 - 6 1 - 1 -0.2 +3.8 -3.6
  Jan 11, 2025 115   @ Western Kentucky L 69-85 30%     6 - 7 1 - 2 -10.6 -5.0 -4.0
  Jan 16, 2025 181   Sam Houston St. W 75-69 OT 63%     7 - 7 2 - 2 +2.4 -10.7 +12.3
  Jan 18, 2025 113   Louisiana Tech W 78-76 47%     8 - 7 3 - 2 +2.7 +10.0 -7.2
  Jan 23, 2025 166   @ New Mexico St. W 69-56 40%     9 - 7 4 - 2 +15.5 +1.1 +14.7
  Jan 25, 2025 143   @ UTEP L 71-73 36%     9 - 8 4 - 3 +1.7 -2.0 +3.7
  Jan 30, 2025 90   Liberty L 68-76 35%     9 - 9 4 - 4 -4.3 +0.2 -4.7
  Feb 01, 2025 243   Florida International W 73-67 75%     10 - 9 5 - 4 -1.4 -3.9 +2.2
  Feb 06, 2025 115   Western Kentucky L 80-81 50%    
  Feb 08, 2025 120   Middle Tennessee W 76-75 52%    
  Feb 13, 2025 113   @ Louisiana Tech L 70-76 27%    
  Feb 15, 2025 181   @ Sam Houston St. L 76-78 44%    
  Feb 20, 2025 143   UTEP W 76-75 56%    
  Feb 22, 2025 166   New Mexico St. W 73-71 60%    
  Feb 27, 2025 243   @ Florida International W 77-75 57%    
  Mar 02, 2025 90   @ Liberty L 67-76 19%    
  Mar 08, 2025 130   @ Jacksonville St. L 71-75 32%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.7 2.4 0.9 0.2 4.2 1st
2nd 0.4 4.2 2.2 0.2 6.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.6 4.6 0.3 8.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 8.6 1.6 11.4 4th
5th 0.4 7.0 5.8 0.1 13.3 5th
6th 0.2 4.4 10.9 1.1 16.6 6th
7th 0.2 3.2 10.6 4.2 0.0 18.1 7th
8th 0.4 3.8 9.0 5.6 0.4 19.2 8th
9th 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.8 4.9 12.8 21.0 23.8 19.5 11.1 4.8 1.1 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.2    0.2
13-5 83.9% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.1
12-6 49.2% 2.4    0.4 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 6.6% 0.7    0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 1.1% 13.4% 13.4% 12.5 0.1 0.1 1.0
12-6 4.8% 12.6% 12.6% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 4.2
11-7 11.1% 8.8% 8.8% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 10.2
10-8 19.5% 6.1% 6.1% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 18.3
9-9 23.8% 5.0% 5.0% 14.7 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.0 22.6
8-10 21.0% 3.4% 3.4% 15.2 0.0 0.5 0.2 20.3
7-11 12.8% 1.5% 1.5% 15.6 0.1 0.1 12.6
6-12 4.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.8
5-13 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.7 1.7 0.4 94.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%