Lafayette
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.5 #318
Expected Predictive Rating -12.7 #333
Pace 68.3 #215
Improvement +2.1 #75

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #303 D D C C- B-
Defense #318 D+ D+ F B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #107 1.04 #309 -0.8 #209
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #244 0.63 #316 -2.2 #289
Three Pointers 41% #171 0.96 #251 -0.9 #218
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #292 -4.0 #293
Freethrows 16.8 #219 70% #272 11.7 #232
Second Chance 24.4% #326 1.10 #120 0.27 #285
Turnovers 16.7% #187
Total Offense -4.9 #303

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #153 1.18 #207 -1.2 #223
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #82 0.78 #218 -1.7 #294
Three Pointers 36% #297 1.11 #302 +0.6 #160
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #253 -2.3 #258
Freethrows 14.6 #49 84% #365 12.2 #296
Second Chance 32.7% #259 1.10 #255 0.36 #276
Turnovers 12.8% #351
Total Defense -4.6 #318

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #103 -0.7% #112
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.0% #313 5.2% #278
Possession Length 17.7 #220 16.7 #89
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #357 0.19 #256
Improvement +0.8 #129 +1.2 #102

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 4.7% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.0% 3.1% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 30.7% 53.3% 26.4%
Conference Champion 0.6% 2.0% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 16.6% 6.7% 18.5%
First Four3.0% 4.4% 2.7%
First Round1.6% 2.7% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Navy (Away) - 16.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 30 - 60 - 9
Quad 410 - 1310 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 185 @Saint Joseph's L 76 - 85 16%  -6  0 - 1 -8 +5 D B- B+ -12 C F F
 Sat, Nov 8 45 @Texas L 60 - 97 2%  -18  0 - 2 -23 -8 F B F -16 C F D+
 Thu, Nov 13 168 Cornell L 78 - 97 29%  -7  0 - 3 -23 -8 F F A -13 C F F
 Mon, Nov 17 67 @West Virginia L 59 - 81 4%  -11  0 - 4 -10 -4 B D F -7 D- F C
 Fri, Nov 21 340 @Stonehill L 70 - 74 46%  -4  0 - 5 -13 -5 F D- F -7 F C+ C
 Fri, Nov 28 291 Le Moyne L 63 - 76 53%  -1  0 - 6 -23 -16 F F F -8 C+ F D+
 Sat, Nov 29 312 Ball St. W 55 - 37 60%  +4  1 - 6 +6 -16 F D- A+ +24 A+ A+ C+
 Sun, Nov 30 194 Monmouth L 74 - 88 34%  -13  1 - 7 -19 -1 D+ D C+ -18 F A+ D+
 Fri, Dec 5 307 Mercyhurst W 79 - 71 59%  +2  2 - 7 -4 +10 A+ B F -13 B F F
 Mon, Dec 8 216 @Penn L 72 - 74 19%  -6  2 - 8 -2 -4 C+ F F +2 C+ A+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 166 @Charlotte L 67 - 81 14%  -11  2 - 9 -12 +5 C C C- -20 F C+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 114 @Georgia Tech L 81 - 95 7%  -7  2 - 10 -7 +13 A+ F A+ -20 D F F
 Wed, Dec 31 205 Colgate L 77 - 85 35%  -1  2 - 11 0 - 1 -13 -3 D C+ D -10 D A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 336 @Loyola Maryland W 79 - 64 45%  +15  3 - 11 1 - 1 +7 +6 D A+ B+ +2 B- A+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 258 Boston University L 67 - 83 46%  -10  3 - 12 1 - 2 -25 -10 F F A+ -16 F C F
 Sat, Jan 10 193 @Navy L 66 - 76 16% 
 Wed, Jan 14 314 @Bucknell L 69 - 72 38% 
 Sat, Jan 17 326 Holy Cross W 72 - 68 63% 
 Wed, Jan 21 258 @Boston University L 69 - 76 26% 
 Sat, Jan 24 320 @Lehigh L 70 - 73 40% 
 Mon, Jan 26 314 Bucknell W 72 - 69 59% 
 Sat, Jan 31 241 @American L 69 - 77 23% 
 Wed, Feb 4 193 Navy L 69 - 73 34% 
 Sat, Feb 7 330 @Army L 72 - 74 43% 
 Wed, Feb 11 336 Loyola Maryland W 77 - 72 66% 
 Sat, Feb 14 320 Lehigh W 73 - 70 62% 
 Wed, Feb 18 326 @Holy Cross L 69 - 71 42% 
 Sun, Feb 22 241 American L 72 - 74 43% 
 Wed, Feb 25 205 @Colgate L 68 - 78 18% 
 Sat, Feb 28 330 Army W 75 - 71 65% 
Totals 9 - 21 7 - 11 -9 -5 D D C -5 D+ D+ F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.4 0.9 0.1 6.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 4.1 4.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 5.6 6.9 2.2 0.2 0.0 15.9 5th
6th 0.7 5.5 7.6 1.8 0.1 0.0 15.7 6th
7th 0.4 3.9 7.6 2.5 0.2 14.5 7th
8th 0.3 3.3 6.7 3.1 0.2 13.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.9 2.9 0.3 10.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 2.4 3.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 9.3 10th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.7 6.1 10.7 14.7 17.5 16.6 13.4 8.9 5.1 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 63.6% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 26.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1
12-6 7.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.2% 22.7% 22.7% 16.0 0.1 0.2
13-5 0.8% 11.1% 11.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7
12-6 2.3% 9.2% 9.2% 16.0 0.2 2.1
11-7 5.1% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 0.4 4.7
10-8 8.9% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.6 8.3
9-9 13.4% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.5 12.9
8-10 16.6% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.5 16.1
7-11 17.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.3 17.2
6-12 14.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 14.5
5-13 10.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.6
4-14 6.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.1
3-15 2.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.6
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 16.0 96.9 0.0%