Lafayette
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -10.3 322
Results Rating -10.9 328
Pace 67.1 225
Improvement +0.3 178

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 330 D+ D- C D+ B-
Defense D+ 286 D+ D+ D C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 118 D+ 55% 265 +0.0 178
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% 244 F+ 31% 354 -2.9 313
Three Pointers 43% 140 D+ 31% 288 -0.7 210
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.7 88 D -4.2 314
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 294
Second Chance D 25.6% 312 D- 0.89 339 D- 0.23 342
Turnovers C 16.9% 184
Freethrows C- 0.28 245 D 68% 305 D+ 0.19 286
Total Offense D -6.6 330

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 129 C- 11.8% 229
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 234 F+ 9.0% 345
Three Pointers C- 82% 223 F 2.4% 362
Total C+ 58% 129 D- 7.3% 332

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 141 D+ 62% 281 +2.3 259
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 75 C 39% 214 +1.4 298
Three Pointers 36% 309 D+ 36% 279 -1.1 135
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 115 D+ +2.8 289
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 259
Second Chance C- 31.7% 238 D+ 1.11 292 D+ 0.35 281
Turnovers D 14.3% 322
Freethrows C+ 0.29 139 C- 73% 248 C+ 0.21 135
Total Defense D+ -3.7 286

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 56% 327 D 6.6% 339
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 31% 284 D 2.2% 323
Three Pointers C 84% 191 F+ -0.2% 363
Total D+ 59% 261 D- 3.1% 347

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.9 246 17.0 134
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 338 0.19 252
Improvement -2.5 #305 +2.9 #49

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 337 323 308
Results Rating Rank 348 326 307
Conference Record 6 - 12 7 - 11 9 - 9
Conference Finish 8 6 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 6% 15% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 4% 0% 6%
First Four2% 2% 1%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: American (Home) - 40.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 71 - 10
Quad 49 - 1210 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 133 @Saint Joseph's L 76 - 85 8% -6  5% 0 - 1 C- -4 B +6 C+ B+ B+ F -10 B- F F
 Sat, Nov 8 29 @Texas L 60 - 97 1% -18  0% 0 - 2 F -19 F -11 F+ B F F+ -9 B- F D+
 Thu, Nov 13 171 Cornell L 78 - 97 26% -7  31% 0 - 3 F -23 F -11 F D B F -10 C- F D-
 Mon, Nov 17 55 @West Virginia L 59 - 81 3% -11  0% 0 - 4 D -9 D+ -4 B D+ F D- -7 D- D D+
 Fri, Nov 21 341 @Stonehill L 70 - 74 46% -4  20% 0 - 5 D- -13 D -5 D- D- F D- -8 F B- C
 Fri, Nov 28 300 Le Moyne L 63 - 76 53% -1  32% 0 - 6 F -24 F -16 F F+ F F+ -8 B- F D-
 Sat, Nov 29 313 Ball St. W 55 - 37 58% +4  62% 1 - 6 B- +6 F -16 F C- A+ A+ +25 A+ A- B-
 Sun, Nov 30 199 Monmouth L 74 - 88 31% -13  6% 1 - 7 F -19 D+ -3 C- D- B- F -16 F A D+
 Fri, Dec 5 290 Mercyhurst W 79 - 71 51% +2  71% 2 - 7 C- -3 B+ +7 A+ B F F+ -9 B F F
 Mon, Dec 8 169 @Penn L 72 - 74 12% -6  2% 2 - 8 C +0 D+ -3 B F D+ B- +3 B- B+ F+
 Thu, Dec 18 174 @Charlotte L 67 - 81 13% -11  4% 2 - 9 D- -12 C+ +3 C C+ C F -17 F C- F
 Sat, Dec 20 140 @Georgia Tech L 81 - 95 10% -7  2% 2 - 10 D -10 B+ +8 A- F A F -17 D F F
 Wed, Dec 31 244 Colgate L 77 - 85 39% -1  26% 2 - 11 0 - 1 F+ -15 D- -7 D C+ D+ F+ -8 F+ A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 3 315 @Loyola Maryland W 79 - 64 35% +15  99% 3 - 11 1 - 1 B +9 B- +5 C A+ B B +4 B- B+ F+
 Wed, Jan 7 257 Boston University L 67 - 83 43% -10  0% 3 - 12 1 - 2 F -24 F -13 F+ F A F -13 F+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 154 @Navy L 50 - 76 11% -20  0% 3 - 13 1 - 3 F -23 F -19 F F F+ D -5 F C D-
 Wed, Jan 14 330 @Bucknell L 69 - 76 42% -1  30% 3 - 14 1 - 4 F+ -15 D -4 D+ D- C+ F -11 F F B
 Sat, Jan 17 327 Holy Cross W 74 - 55 63% +12  96% 4 - 14 2 - 4 B- +5 D+ -3 D- C+ A+ A +10 A B- C+
 Wed, Jan 21 257 @Boston University L 73 - 77 OT 23% +2  66% 4 - 15 2 - 5 D+ -6 F+ -9 F+ F C+ B- +3 C- C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 24 307 @Lehigh L 59 - 64 32% -7  14% 4 - 16 2 - 6 D -11 F -14 F F+ B B- +3 B F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 330 Bucknell W 81 - 79 65% -4  8% 5 - 16 3 - 6 D- -12 B +6 C+ C+ A F -18 D- F F
 Sat, Jan 31 253 @American W 67 - 65 21% -1  34% 6 - 16 4 - 6 C -0 C- -2 C+ F B- B- +2 B F+ C
 Wed, Feb 4 154 Navy L 50 - 65 24% -4  11% 6 - 17 4 - 7 F -18 F -19 C- F D- C +0 B- B F+
 Sat, Feb 7 338 @Army W 63 - 60 44% +4  78% 7 - 17 5 - 7 D+ -6 F -15 F F F A +9 B+ C+ B-
 Wed, Feb 11 315 Loyola Maryland L 54 - 68 58% -9  1% 7 - 18 5 - 8 F -26 F -25 F F A+ C- -3 D- A D
 Sat, Feb 14 307 Lehigh L 69 - 78 55% -0  60% 7 - 19 5 - 9 F -21 D -5 B- F F F -16 F B F
 Wed, Feb 18 327 @Holy Cross W 86 - 83 40% -8  6% 8 - 19 6 - 9 C- -5 B- +5 B+ A+ F F+ -9 F B+ D
 Sun, Feb 22 253 American L 70 - 72 41%
 Wed, Feb 25 244 @Colgate L 68 - 77 20%
 Sat, Feb 28 338 Army W 75 - 70 67%
Totals 9 - 21 7 - 11 -10 D -7 A D B- D+ -4 D+ D D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D+ F+ D+ D 41% 32% 43% B- D+ D D- D- C C- D D+ D+ D+ C D+ D+ 40% 24% 36% C+ D+ C- D+ D+ D C+ C- C+
0.99 55% 31% 31% -4 +1 0.95 26% 0.9 .23 17% .28 68% .19 1.14 62% 39% 36% +3 0 1.07 32% 1.1 .35 14% .29 73% .21
Nov
3		 Saint Joseph's B C- B- D- C- 44% 19% 37% A- C+ C A B+ B+ A+ F B+ F C+ F A+ B 45% 16% 39% C- B- F F F F F+ F F
1.08 54% 40% 30% -4 +1 0.96 31% 1.3 .38 13% .37 52% .19 1.20 56% 44% 23% -7 +1 0.91 40% 1.4 .54 10% .35 86% .30
Nov
8		 Texas F F D+ F+ F+ 38% 26% 36% C F+ B- A- B F C- F D F+ C- D C+ B- 38% 21% 40% C+ B- F F F D+ F C F+
0.87 44% 33% 29% -9 -1 0.83 27% 1.1 .30 22% .32 65% .20 1.41 65% 45% 33% +4 0 1.10 52% 1.7 .87 13% .48 76% .37
Nov
13		 Cornell F F+ F+ C- F 51% 23% 26% C F F A D B B+ F+ B- F F A+ C- C 37% 3% 60% D+ C- C F F D- B- B B-
1.04 52% 31% 33% -5 +1 0.93 21% 1.3 .29 12% .39 65% .26 1.29 73% 0% 36% +6 +2 1.18 31% 1.5 .47 15% .26 71% .19
Nov
17		 West Virginia D+ F A+ A+ C+ 51% 4% 44% A+ B D C+ D+ F C B- C+ D- B D F D- 45% 19% 36% C D- F+ B- D D+ D C+ D+
0.88 35% 50% 45% -4 +3 1.00 20% 1.0 .20 28% .25 75% .19 1.21 52% 44% 47% +6 +1 1.15 39% 1.1 .42 15% .37 67% .25
Nov
21		 Stonehill D F F C+ F+ 54% 17% 29% B+ D- A F D- F A+ D- A+ D- F F+ D F 45% 22% 33% C F F A+ B- C F+ A+ D+
0.98 46% 25% 36% -8 +2 0.90 38% 0.6 .21 17% .49 66% .32 1.04 65% 45% 35% +5 0 1.14 34% 0.6 .20 21% .30 59% .18
Nov
28		 Le Moyne F D+ F C F 29% 20% 51% D+ F F+ D+ F+ F C- B- C F+ D- B A C+ 41% 29% 29% A B- F F F D- C D+ C-
0.91 53% 0% 35% -8 -1 0.84 23% 1.0 .23 19% .30 76% .23 1.10 67% 33% 27% -1 -1 0.98 35% 1.5 .55 17% .33 74% .25
Nov
29		 Ball St. F F F F F 43% 28% 30% C- F F+ A C- A+ A A- A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 31% 18% 51% C+ A+ D+ A+ A- B- B+ B B+
0.89 45% 15% 14% -21 -1 0.60 26% 1.2 .32 13% .37 85% .32 0.60 29% 38% 13% -25 0 0.51 28% 0.4 .12 18% .24 67% .16
Nov
30		 Monmouth D+ C+ D B C 29% 31% 40% F C- F C+ D- B- A B+ A F F D- F F 38% 33% 29% B F A+ A A D+ F B- F
1.05 60% 31% 38% +1 -2 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 17% .38 77% .29 1.25 72% 44% 57% +17 -2 1.33 23% 0.8 .18 16% .52 71% .37
Dec
5		 Mercyhurst B+ F F A+ A+ 43% 9% 48% B A+ B- B B F D A+ B+ F+ C+ B A B 29% 43% 28% A- B F F F F A- D+ B+
1.24 47% 25% 57% +11 +2 1.27 36% 1.1 .40 24% .33 94% .31 1.11 53% 36% 25% -6 -4 0.83 37% 1.6 .61 9% .14 75% .10
Dec
8		 Penn D+ C+ F A+ C+ 55% 13% 32% A- B F F F D+ D+ A+ C B- D- B+ A B- 46% 29% 25% D+ B- C A B+ F+ B- A B
1.01 62% 14% 41% +2 +2 1.11 20% 0.5 .10 18% .22 77% .17 1.03 62% 31% 29% -2 0 0.96 31% 0.8 .24 13% .30 63% .19
Dec
18		 Charlotte C+ B+ F B+ C 29% 20% 51% C- C B D- C+ C F F F F B B- F F 27% 13% 60% B- F A F C- F A+ F A+
1.13 67% 10% 38% 0 -1 1.02 35% 1.0 .35 15% .08 50% .04 1.37 54% 33% 55% +17 0 1.38 26% 1.3 .33 12% .17 89% .15
Dec
20		 Georgia Tech B+ B- A+ C B+ 30% 13% 57% B A- D- F F A B+ B B+ F C+ A- F F+ 39% 31% 30% B+ D F+ F F F F F F
1.14 59% 57% 34% +3 0 1.09 23% 0.5 .11 11% .33 76% .25 1.34 57% 29% 56% +7 -1 1.13 38% 1.5 .56 13% .48 87% .42
Dec
31		 Colgate D- D+ A+ F D- 45% 16% 39% B- D F A+ C+ D+ A+ D A+ F+ F+ F D+ F+ 40% 23% 37% D+ F+ B A+ A+ F+ F C F
1.05 55% 50% 26% -4 +1 0.96 18% 1.8 .32 16% .46 68% .31 1.16 67% 50% 37% +8 0 1.17 23% 0.4 .09 12% .51 73% .37
Jan
3		 Loyola Maryland B- C A+ F+ D+ 49% 14% 37% B+ C D+ A+ A+ B D F F B A- C- C+ B- 39% 15% 46% C B- B- A B+ F+ A- C- B+
1.21 63% 57% 28% +1 +2 1.08 28% 2.0 .56 12% .26 53% .14 0.98 48% 38% 32% -6 +1 0.93 24% 0.8 .18 14% .20 73% .14
Jan
7		 Boston University F B- A+ F F 52% 16% 32% B+ F+ F F F A C- F F F B- F F F 38% 29% 33% A- F+ D C D+ F B- D+ C+
1.02 62% 56% 17% -3 +2 0.98 18% 0.7 .13 8% .26 50% .13 1.26 55% 53% 53% +13 -1 1.25 30% 1.0 .30 14% .26 73% .19
Jan
10		 Navy F C+ F D F 27% 23% 50% C F F F F F+ A- F B- D F+ F D F 33% 26% 41% B F A+ F C D- F A+ B-
0.75 62% 9% 29% -9 -1 0.81 19% 0.3 .05 21% .32 65% .21 1.14 67% 50% 37% +8 -1 1.15 21% 1.6 .32 15% .47 48% .23
Jan
14		 Bucknell D D+ F A D+ 33% 17% 50% C+ D+ F A D- C+ F B- F+ F C B+ F F 45% 16% 39% D F C- F F B C F D+
1.05 56% 13% 42% +1 0 1.04 21% 1.3 .26 17% .24 77% .18 1.15 55% 29% 47% +5 +1 1.14 27% 2.0 .54 23% .27 86% .24
Jan
17		 Holy Cross D+ F D B+ F+ 54% 21% 25% B- D- A- F C+ A+ A+ F A- A C+ B A+ A 23% 35% 42% A A B D+ B- C+ F B+ F+
1.14 50% 36% 38% -3 +1 0.98 38% 0.9 .35 8% .40 63% .25 0.85 55% 35% 25% -7 -3 0.81 17% 1.0 .17 17% .37 70% .26
Jan
21		 Boston University F+ C- F D+ F 44% 13% 44% B+ F+ D F F C+ F B+ F B- C- F C C+ 44% 8% 48% F C- B+ D- C+ B- C+ A B
1.02 56% 25% 33% -3 +1 0.98 26% 0.5 .12 11% .14 78% .11 1.08 61% 50% 36% +4 +2 1.13 22% 1.1 .25 20% .28 63% .17
Jan
24		 Lehigh F D D+ F F 43% 16% 41% B F D F+ F+ B C+ F D+ B- A A+ F B+ 48% 20% 33% F B F F F A+ C F D-
0.90 52% 38% 20% -11 +1 0.82 29% 0.8 .24 14% .34 63% .21 0.98 45% 11% 47% -5 +1 0.93 29% 1.1 .32 24% .26 92% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Bucknell B A+ D+ D C 32% 18% 50% C C+ C C+ C+ A A+ C A+ F F F+ D F 20% 42% 38% A+ D- F F F F F C+ F
1.24 79% 38% 32% +5 0 1.11 34% 1.1 .38 12% .54 74% .40 1.21 67% 42% 35% +4 -4 1.02 32% 1.3 .42 15% .58 75% .43
Jan
31		 American C- C+ A C C 38% 13% 49% B- C+ B- F F B- C- F F+ B- F A A+ B- 33% 23% 44% A- B F C- F+ C D+ B- C-
1.05 61% 50% 35% +3 +1 1.11 35% 0.4 .15 17% .36 58% .21 1.02 75% 27% 24% -4 -1 0.94 35% 0.9 .32 17% .29 73% .21
Feb
4		 Navy F B- A+ F D- 36% 6% 57% A+ C- F F F D- F A+ F C D D- A+ C+ 41% 39% 20% A B- B B- B F+ A D+ A
0.79 65% 67% 22% -6 +2 0.94 18% 0.0 .00 20% .12 100% .12 1.02 62% 45% 10% -3 -2 0.92 26% 1.0 .26 14% .24 77% .18
Feb
7		 Army F F+ D F+ F 45% 19% 36% C+ F C F F F A+ F B A C B+ A+ A- 43% 7% 50% D B+ F A C+ B- A F A-
0.94 52% 33% 29% -6 +1 0.91 33% 0.8 .25 19% .48 62% .29 0.89 57% 25% 22% -10 +2 0.85 36% 0.7 .26 19% .17 78% .13
Feb
11		 Loyola Maryland F C+ A- F F 35% 11% 54% B F D F F A+ D- F F C- C- D+ C- D- 37% 9% 54% D+ D- A+ A- A D A+ D A
0.82 63% 50% 14% -13 +1 0.78 27% 0.5 .14 6% .24 40% .10 1.04 60% 40% 34% +1 +1 1.07 18% 0.8 .15 15% .14 75% .11
Feb
14		 Lehigh D A+ C+ F C+ 46% 15% 39% B+ B- F F F F B+ C B F F D- F F 35% 38% 27% A F D A+ B F B B- B
1.07 71% 43% 28% +3 +1 1.11 24% 0.6 .14 20% .37 74% .27 1.21 72% 45% 50% +14 -3 1.25 25% 0.6 .14 12% .23 69% .16
Feb
18		 Holy Cross B- C+ A A+ A- 47% 24% 29% C- B+ D+ A+ A+ F A- D+ B+ F+ F F F F 56% 15% 29% F F A D+ B+ D F C- F
1.20 63% 50% 47% +10 0 1.24 26% 2.0 .52 18% .34 70% .24 1.16 69% 50% 40% +11 +2 1.27 13% 1.0 .13 14% .36 77% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 2.7 2.7 4th
5th 7.6 3.4 11.0 5th
6th 17.7 21.6 39.2 6th
7th 1.5 25.6 2.8 29.9 7th
8th 12.5 2.1 14.6 8th
9th 2.5 2.5 9th
10th 10th
Total 16.6 45.3 32.0 6.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 6.1% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.2 5.9
8-10 32.0% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.8 31.2
7-11 45.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.5 44.8
6-12 16.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 16.4
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 16.0 98.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.9%
Lose Out 8.1%