Lafayette
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.9 #310
Expected Predictive Rating -10.6 #330
Pace 67.3 #222
Improvement +1.9 #103

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #305 D+ D C C- B-
Defense #289 C- D D C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #128 1.07 #284 -0.6 #200
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #258 0.57 #356 -3.0 #319
Three Pointers 43% #148 0.97 #240 -0.1 #180
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #288 -3.6 #290
Freethrows 0.29 #242 69% #272 0.20 #254
Second Chance 26.1% #304 0.96 #273 0.25 #312
Turnovers 16.5% #161
Total Offense -5.1 #305

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #174 1.20 #244 -1.1 #210
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #71 0.76 #200 -1.4 #293
Three Pointers 37% #290 1.09 #293 +0.5 #157
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #246 -2.0 #247
Freethrows 0.30 #177 73% #237 0.22 #178
Second Chance 32.3% #261 1.15 #323 0.37 #310
Turnovers 14.2% #322
Total Defense -3.8 #289

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #106 -0.8% #101
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.3% #319 4.7% #272
Possession Length 17.8 #239 16.9 #134
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #334 0.20 #270
Improvement -0.6 #218 +2.5 #50

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 5.4% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 31.7% 53.5% 21.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.8% 4.7% 16.7%
First Four3.6% 4.9% 3.0%
First Round2.0% 2.8% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Navy (Home) - 32.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 9
Quad 410 - 1210 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 132 @Saint Joseph's L 76 - 85 10% -6  0 - 1 -4 +8 C B B -12 B- F F
 Sat, Nov 8 31 @Texas L 60 - 97 2% -18  0 - 2 -19 -7 D- B F -13 C+ F D+
 Thu, Nov 13 176 Cornell L 78 - 97 32% -7  0 - 3 -23 -9 F D B -13 C F D-
 Mon, Nov 17 57 @West Virginia L 59 - 81 3% -11  0 - 4 -10 -2 B D+ F -8 D D C-
 Fri, Nov 21 328 @Stonehill L 70 - 74 44% -4  0 - 5 -11 -2 D D F -9 F B- C
 Fri, Nov 28 296 Le Moyne L 63 - 76 57% -1  0 - 6 -24 -14 F F+ F -10 C F D+
 Sat, Nov 29 298 Ball St. W 55 - 37 58% +4  1 - 6 +7 -15 F D+ A+ +24 A+ A- B-
 Sun, Nov 30 207 Monmouth L 74 - 88 38% -13  1 - 7 -20 -0 C- D B- -20 F A+ D
 Fri, Dec 5 304 Mercyhurst W 79 - 71 59% +2  2 - 7 -3 +11 A+ B- F -13 B F F
 Mon, Dec 8 180 @Penn L 72 - 74 16% -6  2 - 8 -0 -2 C+ F D- +2 B- B+ F+
 Thu, Dec 18 157 @Charlotte L 67 - 81 14% -11  2 - 9 -11 +5 C C+ C -19 F C F
 Sat, Dec 20 115 @Georgia Tech L 81 - 95 9% -7  2 - 10 -8 +12 A F A- -20 D+ F F
 Wed, Dec 31 222 Colgate L 77 - 85 40% -1  2 - 11 0 - 1 -14 -4 D C+ D+ -10 D A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 318 @Loyola Maryland W 79 - 64 41% +15  3 - 11 1 - 1 +8 +8 C- A+ B +2 C+ A F+
 Wed, Jan 7 290 Boston University L 67 - 83 56% -10  3 - 12 1 - 2 -26 -10 F+ F A+ -17 F D+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 179 @Navy L 50 - 76 16% -20  3 - 13 1 - 3 -24 -17 F+ F F+ -8 F C F+
 Wed, Jan 14 315 @Bucknell L 69 - 76 41% -1  3 - 14 1 - 4 -13 -2 D+ D C -12 F F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 323 Holy Cross W 74 - 55 65% +12  4 - 14 2 - 4 +6 +1 D- C+ A+ +7 A C+ C
 Wed, Jan 21 290 @Boston University L 73 - 77 OT 33% +2  4 - 15 2 - 5 -8 -7 F+ F B- -1 D+ C C+
 Sat, Jan 24 301 @Lehigh L 59 - 64 36% -7  4 - 16 2 - 6 -10 -11 F F+ B +0 B- F+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 315 Bucknell W 81 - 79 63% -4  5 - 16 3 - 6 -10 +9 C C+ A -19 D- F F+
 Sat, Jan 31 244 @American W 67 - 65 24% -1  6 - 16 4 - 6 +0 +1 C+ F C+ -1 B- F+ C
 Wed, Feb 4 179 Navy L 66 - 71 33%
 Sat, Feb 7 336 @Army L 73 - 74 48%
 Wed, Feb 11 318 Loyola Maryland W 76 - 72 64%
 Sat, Feb 14 301 Lehigh W 72 - 70 57%
 Wed, Feb 18 323 @Holy Cross L 69 - 71 43%
 Sun, Feb 22 244 American L 71 - 72 45%
 Wed, Feb 25 222 @Colgate L 69 - 78 21%
 Sat, Feb 28 336 Army W 76 - 71 69%
Totals 10 - 20 8 - 10 -9 -5 D+ D C -4 C- D D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.4 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 3.7 1.5 0.1 6.6 3rd
4th 0.0 2.1 9.3 4.8 0.3 16.4 4th
5th 0.9 11.0 7.5 0.6 20.0 5th
6th 0.1 6.6 10.7 0.7 18.1 6th
7th 1.7 10.0 2.0 0.0 13.7 7th
8th 0.3 5.6 4.8 0.1 10.9 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 5.3 0.6 8.1 9th
10th 0.8 2.6 0.9 4.3 10th
Total 0.9 4.8 13.6 23.0 25.9 18.8 9.7 2.8 0.5 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 5.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 1.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.5% 20.7% 20.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4
11-7 2.8% 14.6% 14.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4 2.4
10-8 9.7% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.8 8.8
9-9 18.8% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.9 17.9
8-10 25.9% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 1.0 25.0
7-11 23.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 22.7
6-12 13.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 13.4
5-13 4.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.8
4-14 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 16.0 96.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Lose Out 0.6%