IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Lafayette
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.7	#267
Expected Predictive Rating	-8.1	#297

Pace	64.9	#285
Improvement	-1.9	#286

Offense
Total Offense	-4.5	#301

First Shot	-1.5	#219
After Offensive Rebound	-3.1	#334

Layup/Dunks	-1.7	#238
2 Pt Jumpshots	-2.6	#318
3 Pt Jumpshots	+1.4	#132
Freethrows	+1.4	#97

Improvement	-0.6	#234

Defense
Total Defense	-1.1	#204

First Shot	+0.6	#150
After Offensive Rebounds	-1.7	#314

Layups/Dunks	-0.9	#203
2 Pt Jumpshots	+0.3	#172
3 Pt Jumpshots	+2.6	#69
Freethrows	-1.4	#284

Improvement	-1.2	#278

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	10.9%	11.9%	8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.8	15.8	15.9

.500 or above	42.4%	48.7%	25.9%
.500 or above in Conference	64.5%	67.5%	56.3%
Conference Champion	13.7%	15.0%	10.3%
Last Place in Conference	7.5%	6.4%	10.5%

First Four	6.8%	7.1%	6.2%
First Round	7.7%	8.5%	5.6%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Stonehill (Home) - 72.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	1 - 4	1 - 7
Quad 4	15 - 10	15 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	52	@ Villanova	L	63-75	5%	0 - 1			+1.4	-6.6	+7.7
Nov 09, 2024	165	@ La Salle	L	60-81	21%	0 - 2			-18.4	-11.6	-6.5
Nov 12, 2024	292	Penn	W	65-63	66%	1 - 2			-8.0	-1.0	-6.6
Nov 16, 2024	131	@ Cornell	L	71-81	17%	1 - 3			-5.3	-1.0	-4.5
Nov 20, 2024	93	@ Rhode Island	L	72-86	10%	1 - 4			-5.5	+0.8	-5.8
Nov 29, 2024	336	LIU Brooklyn	W	75-56	79%	2 - 4			+5.0	+0.2	+5.3
Nov 30, 2024	320	Niagara	W	59-47	73%	3 - 4			+0.0	-16.8	+17.7
Dec 01, 2024	302	Binghamton	L	81-82 OT	69%	3 - 5			-11.8	-1.3	-10.4
Dec 07, 2024	358	@ Mercyhurst	W	77-73	70%	4 - 5			-7.1	+6.9	-13.6
Dec 18, 2024	136	@ George Washington	L	62-82	17%	4 - 6			-15.7	-5.8	-11.0
Dec 21, 2024	314	@ Portland	L	64-74	50%	4 - 7			-15.6	-11.8	-3.7
Dec 29, 2024	323	Stonehill	W	70-64	73%
Jan 02, 2025	257	Boston University	W	66-63	60%
Jan 05, 2025	318	@ Navy	W	70-69	51%
Jan 08, 2025	266	@ Bucknell	L	64-67	39%
Jan 11, 2025	313	Holy Cross	W	71-65	70%
Jan 15, 2025	312	@ Army	L	67-68	49%
Jan 18, 2025	241	Colgate	W	68-66	57%
Jan 22, 2025	322	@ Loyola Maryland	W	67-66	52%
Jan 25, 2025	246	@ Lehigh	L	68-72	36%
Jan 29, 2025	232	American	W	65-64	54%
Feb 01, 2025	241	@ Colgate	L	65-69	35%
Feb 05, 2025	322	Loyola Maryland	W	70-64	72%
Feb 08, 2025	318	Navy	W	72-66	71%
Feb 10, 2025	232	@ American	L	62-67	33%
Feb 15, 2025	266	Bucknell	W	67-64	60%
Feb 19, 2025	313	@ Holy Cross	L	68-69	49%
Feb 22, 2025	246	Lehigh	W	71-69	58%
Feb 25, 2025	312	Army	W	71-65	70%
Mar 01, 2025	257	@ Boston University	L	63-66	38%
Projected Record						14 - 16	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Patriot League Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.6	2.5	4.0	3.5	2.1	0.8	0.2	0.0		13.7	1st
2nd										0.0	0.7	3.8	5.2	2.8	0.7	0.1	0.0				13.3	2nd
3rd										0.5	4.1	5.6	2.2	0.3	0.0	0.0					12.7	3rd
4th									0.2	3.4	6.1	2.1	0.2								12.1	4th
5th								0.1	2.2	6.3	2.6	0.2	0.0								11.4	5th
6th							0.1	1.4	5.2	3.2	0.3										10.1	6th
7th						0.1	0.9	4.0	3.6	0.4											8.9	7th
8th					0.1	0.7	2.9	3.3	0.6	0.0											7.6	8th
9th			0.0	0.1	0.8	2.1	2.4	0.7	0.0												6.1	9th
10th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.3	1.1	0.5	0.0													4.1	10th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.9	2.1	4.0	6.7	9.6	11.8	13.7	13.8	12.3	10.1	7.1	4.2	2.2	0.8	0.2	0.0			Total

Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-2	99.2%	0.8		0.8	0.0
15-3	95.6%	2.1		1.9	0.2	0.0
14-4	82.6%	3.5		2.6	0.8	0.0
13-5	56.1%	4.0		2.0	1.6	0.3	0.0
12-6	24.9%	2.5		0.6	1.1	0.7	0.1	0.0
11-7	5.0%	0.6		0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.2%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	13.7%	13.7		8.1	4.0	1.3	0.3	0.1	0.0		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%																		0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
17-1	0.2%		42.5%	42.5%		13.9														0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
16-2	0.8%		32.2%	32.2%		14.7														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.5
15-3	2.2%		30.3%	30.3%		15.2															0.1	0.4	0.2	1.5
14-4	4.2%		24.9%	24.9%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.4	0.6	3.2
13-5	7.1%		21.3%	21.3%		15.8															0.0	0.3	1.2	5.6
12-6	10.1%		18.2%	18.2%		15.9																0.1	1.7	8.2
11-7	12.3%		14.0%	14.0%		16.0																0.1	1.7	10.6
10-8	13.8%		10.9%	10.9%		16.0																0.0	1.5	12.3
9-9	13.7%		8.5%	8.5%		16.0																0.0	1.2	12.6
8-10	11.8%		5.2%	5.2%		16.0																	0.6	11.2
7-11	9.6%		2.6%	2.6%		16.0																	0.2	9.3
6-12	6.7%		2.1%	2.1%		16.0																	0.1	6.6
5-13	4.0%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																	0.1	4.0
4-14	2.1%		1.5%	1.5%		16.0																	0.0	2.1
3-15	0.9%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	0.9
2-16	0.3%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	0.3
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		10.9%	10.9%	0.0%	15.8													0.0	0.1	0.2	1.4	9.3	89.1		0.0%