Liberty
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.2 #89
Expected Predictive Rating +10.6 #54
Pace 62.2 #341
Improvement +0.8 #148

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #60 A F+ A- F+ A+
Defense #147 C D C+ B+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #6 1.28 #63 +8.8 #6
2 Pt. Jumpers 7% #364 0.70 #263 -5.4 #363
Three Pointers 45% #104 1.20 #9 +6.0 #23
1st FG Attempt 1.21 #7 +9.5 #7
Freethrows 0.24 #344 68% #305 0.16 #352
Second Chance 19.2% #365 0.99 #233 0.19 #362
Turnovers 12.8% #11
Total Offense +5.9 #60

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #228 1.01 #28 +3.7 #66
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #150 0.87 #333 -1.5 #294
Three Pointers 42% #155 1.06 #237 -1.3 #245
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #149 +0.9 #145
Freethrows 0.23 #16 72% #163 0.17 #21
Second Chance 32.3% #256 1.18 #347 0.38 #329
Turnovers 18.1% #94
Total Defense +0.3 #147

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.9% #1 -0.4% #132
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.9% #19 -1.3% #158
Possession Length 18.5 #301 18.3 #319
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #321 0.13 #54
Improvement +0.0 #181 +0.9 #130

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.2% 39.2% 33.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 12.0 12.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 98.2% 99.0% 94.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round38.2% 39.2% 33.0%
Second Round5.3% 5.6% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware (Away) - 83.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 03 - 1
Quad 310 - 412 - 5
Quad 412 - 124 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 152 College of Charleston W 90 - 75 80% +8  1 - 0 +12 +27 A+ B+ A+ -12 D F B
 Sun, Nov 9 109 Florida Atlantic W 88 - 68 70% +15  2 - 0 +21 +18 A+ D- A- +3 A+ F C+
 Mon, Nov 24 211 Vermont W 79 - 73 81% +10  3 - 0 +3 +7 A+ F C -4 C- F B-
 Tue, Nov 25 155 Towson L 69 - 72 73% +1  3 - 1 -3 +6 B- D A+ -9 D+ F C
 Wed, Nov 26 121 Bradley L 64 - 74 64% -10  3 - 2 -7 -3 B- F C -6 D F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 364 Coppin St. W 92 - 50 99% +34  4 - 2 +19 +11 A+ D C- +9 A- A+ C
 Wed, Dec 10 23 @North Carolina St. L 45 - 85 11% -25  4 - 3 -21 -18 F+ F F+ -4 C- A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 88 @Dayton W 64 - 61 38% -2  5 - 3 +12 +9 A- F A+ +4 A C- C
 Sun, Dec 28 188 @Florida International W 97 - 94 OT 69% -0  6 - 3 1 - 0 +4 +17 A D A+ -13 C F B-
 Fri, Jan 2 142 Kennesaw St. W 81 - 73 78% +8  7 - 3 2 - 0 +6 +3 A F C- +3 A+ C- C
 Sun, Jan 4 191 Jacksonville St. W 78 - 69 85% +4  8 - 3 3 - 0 +4 +12 C C- A+ -7 B F F+
 Thu, Jan 8 215 @Louisiana Tech W 72 - 56 73% +8  9 - 3 4 - 0 +16 +13 B D+ A+ +6 C A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 108 @Sam Houston St. W 82 - 74 48% +5  10 - 3 5 - 0 +15 +10 A+ F C+ +4 C B- A
 Thu, Jan 15 167 New Mexico St. W 73 - 71 82% +6  11 - 3 6 - 0 -2 +12 A+ F A+ -13 D F D-
 Sat, Jan 17 257 UTEP W 80 - 69 91% +7  12 - 3 7 - 0 +3 +15 A+ F A+ -11 F A+ A-
 Wed, Jan 21 156 @Western Kentucky W 76 - 69 62% +5  13 - 3 8 - 0 +10 +13 A+ D+ B- -2 C- F+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 286 Delaware W 67 - 51 93% +7  14 - 3 9 - 0 +6 +1 A- F A- +7 C A- A+
 Thu, Jan 29 154 @Middle Tennessee W 81 - 65 62% +12  15 - 3 10 - 0 +19 +23 A+ F A+ -2 A F B-
 Wed, Feb 4 286 @Delaware W 73 - 63 84%
 Sat, Feb 7 182 Missouri St. W 76 - 65 84%
 Wed, Feb 11 167 @New Mexico St. W 74 - 70 63%
 Sat, Feb 14 257 @UTEP W 73 - 64 79%
 Thu, Feb 19 188 Florida International W 83 - 72 85%
 Sat, Feb 21 156 Western Kentucky W 78 - 69 81%
 Thu, Feb 26 142 @Kennesaw St. W 79 - 77 57%
 Sat, Feb 28 191 @Jacksonville St. W 71 - 66 69%
 Thu, Mar 5 215 Louisiana Tech W 72 - 60 87%
 Sat, Mar 7 108 Sam Houston St. W 79 - 73 70%
Totals 23 - 5 18 - 2 +6 +6 A F+ A- +0 C D C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 5.2 13.6 22.4 26.5 20.8 8.2 98.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.6 2.1 5.7 13.6 22.4 26.5 20.8 8.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 8.2    8.2
19-1 100.0% 20.8    20.8
18-2 100.0% 26.5    26.5
17-3 100.0% 22.4    22.4
16-4 100.0% 13.6    12.8 0.8
15-5 92.7% 5.2    3.8 1.4 0.0
14-6 62.4% 1.3    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-7 20.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 98.2% 98.2 95.1 2.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 8.2% 49.1% 48.3% 0.7% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.6 1.1 0.0 4.2 1.4%
19-1 20.8% 43.9% 43.9% 0.0% 11.8 0.0 2.5 6.0 0.7 11.7 0.1%
18-2 26.5% 40.4% 40.3% 0.0% 12.0 1.3 7.9 1.5 0.0 15.8 0.1%
17-3 22.4% 36.6% 36.6% 12.2 0.4 5.6 2.1 0.1 14.2
16-4 13.6% 30.1% 30.1% 12.4 0.1 2.5 1.4 0.1 9.5
15-5 5.7% 25.9% 25.9% 12.6 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.1 4.2
14-6 2.1% 20.1% 20.1% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.7
13-7 0.6% 14.9% 14.9% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
12-8 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-9 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 38.2% 38.1% 0.1% 12.0 61.8 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.0% 100.0% 11.2 0.4 3.0 5.3 62.6 28.5 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5% 0.3% 11.0 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4% 1.8% 11.0 1.8