Liberty
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.2 #99
Expected Predictive Rating +7.8 #76
Pace 63.9 #321
Improvement -1.1 #244

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #71 A F A+ F A+
Defense #147 B- F C B+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #9 1.26 #74 +7.9 #8
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% #362 0.59 #343 -5.5 #363
Three Pointers 45% #120 1.13 #41 +4.4 #47
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #26 +6.9 #27
Freethrows 14.2 #324 66% #331 9.4 #337
Second Chance 22.5% #354 1.03 #201 0.23 #338
Turnovers 12.8% #10
Total Offense +4.8 #71

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #188 0.97 #17 +3.7 #66
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #118 0.86 #312 -1.8 #302
Three Pointers 39% #232 1.00 #170 +1.0 #143
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #91 +3.0 #89
Freethrows 13.2 #27 76% #311 10.0 #331
Second Chance 34.5% #307 1.22 #340 0.42 #349
Turnovers 16.9% #168
Total Defense +0.3 #147

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.7% #2 -0.4% #127
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.4% #60 -5.3% #88
Possession Length 18.3 #274 18.3 #327
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #308 0.13 #41
Improvement -1.7 #286 +0.7 #138

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.8% 35.3% 28.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 12.4
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.8% 99.0%
Conference Champion 70.8% 80.7% 59.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round31.8% 35.2% 28.0%
Second Round4.4% 5.4% 3.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Away) - 52.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 21 - 12 - 2
Quad 310 - 412 - 7
Quad 411 - 122 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 149 College of Charleston W 90 - 75 77%  +8  1 - 0 +12 +26 A+ A+ A+ -12 D- F A-
 Sun, Nov 9 106 Florida Atlantic W 88 - 68 64%  +15  2 - 0 +21 +19 A+ D A+ +4 A+ F C+
 Mon, Nov 24 198 Vermont W 79 - 73 76%  +10  3 - 0 +4 +6 A+ F C+ -2 C+ F B
 Tue, Nov 25 175 Towson L 69 - 72 73%  +1  3 - 1 -4 +5 B+ F A+ -9 D F C
 Wed, Nov 26 116 Bradley L 64 - 74 56%  -10  3 - 2 -6 -1 B F B+ -7 D F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 364 Coppin St. W 92 - 50 99%  +34  4 - 2 +19 +13 A+ C- C- +7 A A+ C
 Wed, Dec 10 34 @North Carolina St. L 45 - 85 14%  -25  4 - 3 -23 -19 F F F -6 D A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 20 75 @Dayton W 64 - 61 29%  -2  5 - 3 +14 +10 A- F A+ +5 A+ C- B
 Sun, Dec 28 164 @Florida International W 97 - 94 OT 60%  -0  6 - 3 1 - 0 +5 +16 A+ F A+ -11 C+ F B
 Fri, Jan 2 162 Kennesaw St. W 81 - 73 79%  +8  7 - 3 2 - 0 +5 +3 A+ F C +1 A+ F C-
 Sun, Jan 4 208 Jacksonville St. W 78 - 69 84%  +4  8 - 3 3 - 0 +3 +11 C C A+ -7 B F F
 Thu, Jan 8 228 @Louisiana Tech W 72 - 56 72%  +8  9 - 3 4 - 0 +15 +13 B+ C- A+ +5 C A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 134 @Sam Houston St. W 77 - 76 52% 
 Thu, Jan 15 136 New Mexico St. W 76 - 69 74% 
 Sat, Jan 17 244 UTEP W 76 - 63 89% 
 Wed, Jan 21 155 @Western Kentucky W 78 - 76 58% 
 Sat, Jan 24 277 Delaware W 75 - 60 92% 
 Wed, Jan 28 123 @Middle Tennessee L 71 - 72 50% 
 Wed, Feb 4 277 @Delaware W 72 - 63 79% 
 Sat, Feb 7 192 Missouri St. W 74 - 64 83% 
 Wed, Feb 11 136 @New Mexico St. W 73 - 72 52% 
 Sat, Feb 14 244 @UTEP W 73 - 66 73% 
 Thu, Feb 19 164 Florida International W 82 - 73 79% 
 Sat, Feb 21 155 Western Kentucky W 81 - 73 77% 
 Thu, Feb 26 162 @Kennesaw St. W 80 - 77 59% 
 Sat, Feb 28 208 @Jacksonville St. W 71 - 66 67% 
 Thu, Mar 5 228 Louisiana Tech W 71 - 59 86% 
 Sat, Mar 7 134 Sam Houston St. W 80 - 73 72% 
Totals 20 - 8 15 - 5 +5 +5 A F A+ +0 B- F C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 6.3 13.0 16.8 15.5 11.2 5.1 1.4 70.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 3.8 5.9 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 16.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 2.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 6.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 3.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 6th
7th 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 5.4 8.5 13.4 17.1 18.0 15.7 11.2 5.1 1.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4
19-1 100.0% 5.1    5.1 0.0
18-2 99.9% 11.2    11.1 0.1
17-3 98.9% 15.5    14.8 0.7
16-4 93.7% 16.8    14.3 2.4 0.1
15-5 76.0% 13.0    8.5 4.0 0.5 0.0
14-6 47.0% 6.3    2.3 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-7 16.8% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-8 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 70.8% 70.8 57.6 10.8 2.0 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.4% 55.5% 53.3% 2.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.6 4.7%
19-1 5.1% 51.3% 51.0% 0.3% 11.5 0.0 1.4 1.2 0.0 2.5 0.6%
18-2 11.2% 44.9% 44.8% 0.1% 11.8 1.3 3.3 0.4 6.2 0.2%
17-3 15.7% 39.8% 39.8% 12.1 0.7 4.4 1.2 0.0 9.5
16-4 18.0% 33.2% 33.2% 12.3 0.2 3.5 2.1 0.1 12.0
15-5 17.1% 29.4% 29.4% 12.6 0.1 2.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 12.1
14-6 13.4% 24.3% 24.3% 12.7 1.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.2
13-7 8.5% 20.7% 20.7% 12.9 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.3 6.7
12-8 5.4% 14.7% 14.7% 13.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.6
11-9 2.6% 9.4% 9.4% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.3
10-10 1.1% 8.4% 8.4% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0
9-11 0.4% 8.0% 8.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.4
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 31.8% 31.7% 0.1% 12.2 68.2 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 10.1 2.1 3.4 9.0 11.7 17.9 49.7 6.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 3.9% 11.0 3.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 5.9% 11.0 5.9