Liberty
Conference USA
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.2#90
Expected Predictive Rating+6.5#81
Pace63.7#302
Improvement-3.3#320

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#133
First Shot+4.1#69
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#321
Layup/Dunks+4.4#36
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#358
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#17
Freethrows-3.2#347
Improvement-0.7#218

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#59
First Shot+5.9#33
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#283
Layups/Dunks-1.5#236
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#350
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.7#2
Freethrows+3.0#22
Improvement-2.6#308
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.5% 31.1% 25.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 12.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 96.3% 98.5% 90.9%
Conference Champion 31.3% 38.6% 12.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round29.5% 31.1% 25.5%
Second Round5.3% 5.7% 4.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.2% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Home) - 71.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 23 - 33 - 3
Quad 310 - 513 - 7
Quad 48 - 122 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 226   Valparaiso W 83-63 82%     1 - 0 +16.5 +10.0 +7.2
  Nov 09, 2024 162   @ Seattle W 66-64 63%     2 - 0 +4.7 +0.4 +4.5
  Nov 16, 2024 106   Florida Atlantic L 74-77 OT 58%     2 - 1 +1.2 -2.9 +4.2
  Nov 17, 2024 131   @ College of Charleston W 68-47 58%     3 - 1 +25.2 +1.3 +25.3
  Nov 22, 2024 301   Louisiana W 89-69 90%     4 - 1 +12.2 +20.4 -6.6
  Nov 24, 2024 55   Kansas St. W 67-65 36%     5 - 1 +11.9 +5.6 +6.5
  Nov 25, 2024 87   McNeese St. W 62-58 48%     6 - 1 +10.5 +2.0 +9.1
  Dec 07, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 89-52 99%     7 - 1 +9.4 +10.7 +1.3
  Dec 14, 2024 333   N.C. A&T W 83-74 95%     8 - 1 -4.4 +1.2 -5.8
  Dec 21, 2024 200   Texas Arlington W 79-56 84%     9 - 1 +18.7 +4.8 +14.7
  Jan 02, 2025 115   Western Kentucky L 70-71 71%     9 - 2 0 - 1 -0.6 -2.2 +1.7
  Jan 04, 2025 120   Middle Tennessee W 73-63 73%     10 - 2 1 - 1 +9.8 +3.5 +6.7
  Jan 09, 2025 181   @ Sam Houston St. W 76-68 68%     11 - 2 2 - 1 +9.4 +2.6 +6.8
  Jan 11, 2025 113   @ Louisiana Tech L 74-79 52%     11 - 3 2 - 2 +0.7 +3.5 -2.8
  Jan 16, 2025 143   UTEP L 70-72 76%     11 - 4 2 - 3 -3.3 -0.9 -2.5
  Jan 18, 2025 166   New Mexico St. W 68-60 79%     12 - 4 3 - 3 +5.5 -0.7 +6.6
  Jan 25, 2025 243   @ Florida International W 82-59 79%     13 - 4 4 - 3 +20.6 +15.6 +6.3
  Jan 30, 2025 170   @ Kennesaw St. W 76-68 65%     14 - 4 5 - 3 +10.3 +7.0 +3.5
  Feb 01, 2025 130   @ Jacksonville St. L 61-72 57%     14 - 5 5 - 4 -6.7 -4.7 -3.0
  Feb 06, 2025 113   Louisiana Tech W 68-63 72%    
  Feb 08, 2025 181   Sam Houston St. W 75-65 84%    
  Feb 13, 2025 166   @ New Mexico St. W 67-63 61%    
  Feb 15, 2025 143   @ UTEP W 69-66 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 243   Florida International W 75-61 91%    
  Feb 27, 2025 130   Jacksonville St. W 70-63 75%    
  Mar 02, 2025 170   Kennesaw St. W 76-67 81%    
  Mar 06, 2025 120   @ Middle Tennessee W 68-67 53%    
  Mar 08, 2025 115   @ Western Kentucky W 72-71 51%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.4 11.9 13.9 4.1 31.3 1st
2nd 0.5 9.4 12.0 2.6 0.0 24.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.5 10.8 2.1 0.0 16.4 3rd
4th 0.5 7.5 3.0 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.6 4.7 0.2 7.5 5th
6th 0.7 3.7 0.8 5.1 6th
7th 0.2 1.5 1.2 0.0 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.9 8.2 16.9 24.7 25.9 16.5 4.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 99.3% 4.1    3.7 0.4
13-5 84.3% 13.9    8.9 4.5 0.5
12-6 45.8% 11.9    2.6 5.5 3.2 0.6 0.0
11-7 5.7% 1.4    0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 31.3% 31.3 15.2 10.6 4.1 1.2 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 4.2% 44.1% 43.4% 0.7% 11.3 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.6 0.0 2.3 1.3%
13-5 16.5% 37.8% 37.7% 0.1% 11.9 1.1 4.8 0.3 0.0 10.2 0.2%
12-6 25.9% 33.7% 33.7% 12.1 0.5 6.5 1.8 0.0 17.2
11-7 24.7% 27.5% 27.5% 12.4 0.1 4.2 2.3 0.1 0.0 17.9
10-8 16.9% 23.2% 23.2% 12.5 0.0 2.0 1.8 0.2 13.0
9-9 8.2% 18.5% 18.5% 12.7 0.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.6
8-10 2.9% 15.6% 15.6% 13.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.4
7-11 0.7% 4.2% 4.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
6-12 0.1% 0.0 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 29.5% 29.5% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.1 2.8 18.7 7.3 0.5 0.1 70.5 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 11.3 0.6 7.8 58.3 32.2 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 1.4% 11.0 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 2.2% 11.5 1.1 1.1