Longwood
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.9 #264
Expected Predictive Rating -7.1 #283
Pace 70.0 #146
Improvement +3.6 #39

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #273 D+ C D- C+ C-
Defense #248 D- B C+ C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #174 1.15 #175 +0.1 #171
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #121 0.72 #224 +0.5 #152
Three Pointers 38% #239 0.88 #335 -4.0 #314
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #282 -3.4 #283
Freethrows 0.30 #173 76% #76 0.23 #137
Second Chance 33.9% #89 0.91 #321 0.31 #186
Turnovers 20.1% #345
Total Offense -3.9 #273

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #141 1.33 #349 -4.4 #321
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #346 0.78 #227 +2.2 #32
Three Pointers 46% #56 1.07 #255 -3.5 #318
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #338 -5.8 #338
Freethrows 0.33 #286 70% #64 0.23 #244
Second Chance 28.8% #107 0.91 #41 0.26 #57
Turnovers 17.9% #109
Total Defense -2.0 #248

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.6% #231 1.8% #327
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.1% #285 9.3% #330
Possession Length 16.9 #127 17.3 #186
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #255 0.17 #185
Improvement -0.4 #200 +4.0 #21

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 2.5% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 14.1% 16.6% 3.3%
.500 or above in Conference 47.9% 54.8% 18.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four1.3% 1.3% 1.2%
First Round1.8% 1.9% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Away) - 81.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 412 - 713 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 93 @Pittsburgh L 60 - 78 9% -5  0 - 1 -9 -9 F D- A+ +0 D+ B+ A-
 Wed, Nov 12 205 James Madison W 82 - 72 49% +8  1 - 1 +4 +5 F+ D+ B -0 C- A D+
 Sat, Nov 15 361 Binghamton W 90 - 82 89% +14  2 - 1 -11 +3 D C+ D -15 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 338 Maryland Eastern Shore L 82 - 83 2OT 79% -3  2 - 2 -15 -6 F B- F -9 F C+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 183 @Columbia L 70 - 95 24% -13  2 - 3 -24 -5 B+ F F -18 F D- D+
 Fri, Nov 28 174 Siena L 63 - 70 32% -3  2 - 4 -8 -9 F+ B F +0 F A+ B-
 Sat, Nov 29 346 Maine W 65 - 61 71% +3  3 - 4 -8 -3 A F+ F -4 C- F C+
 Sun, Nov 30 244 @American L 66 - 92 34% -8  3 - 5 -28 -8 F F A -19 F F+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 354 @Morgan St. W 84 - 80 68% +1  4 - 5 -7 +0 D B+ F -7 F+ B+ C-
 Sat, Dec 13 353 Delaware St. L 76 - 81 84% -5  4 - 6 -22 +4 C C- F -26 F A F
 Wed, Dec 17 75 @Wake Forest L 68 - 71 7% -2  4 - 7 +8 -2 F B- B+ +10 A- A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 341 @NC Central W 74 - 72 60% +2  5 - 7 -7 -4 D- B F -3 C- B+ D+
 Wed, Dec 31 123 Winthrop W 82 - 70 31% +7  6 - 7 1 - 0 +11 +10 B+ A+ D +1 A+ B D
 Sat, Jan 3 98 @High Point L 67 - 80 10% -7  6 - 8 1 - 1 -5 -1 C C D -5 C- C B-
 Wed, Jan 7 209 @UNC Asheville L 61 - 72 28% -6  6 - 9 1 - 2 -11 -5 D- D- C+ -7 F+ B+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 262 Presbyterian W 77 - 70 61% +10  7 - 9 2 - 2 -2 +9 B+ B C- -10 F A C+
 Sat, Jan 17 234 @Radford L 83 - 85 32% -11  7 - 10 2 - 3 -3 +8 C+ A+ F+ -12 F A D+
 Wed, Jan 21 363 Gardner-Webb W 91 - 56 92% +17  8 - 10 3 - 3 +14 +8 C+ A+ D- +6 C+ C+ A+
 Fri, Jan 23 246 Charleston Southern W 81 - 79 OT 57% +6  9 - 10 4 - 3 -6 -6 C F F +0 D C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 29 302 @South Carolina Upstate L 60 - 65 47% -2  9 - 11 4 - 4 -10 -13 D- D F +3 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 98 High Point L 59 - 71 22% -6  9 - 12 4 - 5 -10 -10 F+ D+ F -2 C+ A+ C
 Wed, Feb 4 363 @Gardner-Webb W 81 - 72 81%
 Sat, Feb 7 123 @Winthrop L 71 - 82 14%
 Thu, Feb 12 209 UNC Asheville W 72 - 71 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 302 South Carolina Upstate W 74 - 69 69%
 Thu, Feb 19 262 @Presbyterian L 69 - 72 38%
 Sat, Feb 21 246 @Charleston Southern L 75 - 79 36%
 Sat, Feb 28 234 Radford W 80 - 79 54%
Totals 12 - 16 7 - 9 -6 -4 D+ C D- -2 D- B C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.0 7.1 4.3 0.3 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 2.5 13.7 7.4 0.6 24.1 4th
5th 2.2 15.7 10.7 0.7 29.3 5th
6th 0.9 9.8 8.8 0.7 20.3 6th
7th 0.1 3.4 5.6 0.5 9.7 7th
8th 0.5 1.6 0.3 2.4 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.6 6.0 17.9 27.6 27.1 15.2 5.0 0.5 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.5% 1.9% 1.9% 14.0 0.0 0.5
10-6 5.0% 6.0% 6.0% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 4.7
9-7 15.2% 3.6% 3.6% 15.8 0.1 0.4 14.7
8-8 27.1% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.1 0.7 26.4
7-9 27.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.5 27.1
6-10 17.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 17.7
5-11 6.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.9
4-12 0.6% 0.6
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 15.8 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.2%