Longwood
Big South
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#173
Expected Predictive Rating+2.7#126
Pace69.5#163
Improvement-0.5#216

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#208
First Shot-3.1#266
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#81
Layup/Dunks+0.4#165
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#264
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#336
Freethrows+3.2#29
Improvement+1.2#97

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#148
First Shot-1.3#213
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#52
Layups/Dunks-6.1#354
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#14
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#149
Freethrows+1.1#103
Improvement-1.7#299
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.3% 22.5% 15.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.4 14.2
.500 or above 93.3% 98.7% 92.8%
.500 or above in Conference 81.7% 88.4% 81.2%
Conference Champion 21.2% 30.6% 20.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.0% 1.6%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round16.2% 22.4% 15.7%
Second Round1.0% 2.0% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SMU (Away) - 7.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 35 - 45 - 7
Quad 414 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 350   Morgan St. W 84-66 91%     1 - 0 +2.8 -1.2 +3.3
  Nov 13, 2024 132   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-62 53%     2 - 0 +12.6 -9.5 +20.2
  Nov 16, 2024 288   Tennessee Martin W 64-62 81%     3 - 0 -7.8 -10.2 +2.5
  Nov 19, 2024 302   @ Binghamton W 66-60 66%     4 - 0 +1.2 +1.1 +1.0
  Nov 22, 2024 127   UAB W 89-81 40%     5 - 0 +10.1 +10.9 -1.1
  Nov 24, 2024 91   McNeese St. L 69-84 26%     5 - 1 -8.9 -0.1 -8.8
  Nov 25, 2024 84   Kansas St. L 64-80 24%     5 - 2 -9.2 -5.4 -3.7
  Dec 05, 2024 359   Maryland Eastern Shore W 80-76 93%     6 - 2 -13.1 -0.1 -13.0
  Dec 14, 2024 274   NC Central L 70-77 79%     6 - 3 -16.3 -7.6 -8.8
  Dec 18, 2024 296   @ Campbell W 77-55 64%     7 - 3 +17.7 +8.7 +10.4
  Dec 20, 2024 274   @ NC Central W 82-67 60%     8 - 3 +11.7 +8.3 +3.8
  Dec 29, 2024 41   @ SMU L 69-84 8%    
  Jan 02, 2025 268   @ Presbyterian W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 04, 2025 298   Charleston Southern W 78-68 82%    
  Jan 08, 2025 176   UNC Asheville W 75-72 62%    
  Jan 11, 2025 190   @ Winthrop L 77-79 42%    
  Jan 15, 2025 123   High Point W 75-74 50%    
  Jan 22, 2025 214   @ Radford L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 342   South Carolina Upstate W 83-69 90%    
  Jan 29, 2025 229   @ Gardner-Webb W 75-74 50%    
  Feb 01, 2025 298   @ Charleston Southern W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 214   Radford W 71-66 68%    
  Feb 12, 2025 123   @ High Point L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 15, 2025 268   Presbyterian W 75-67 77%    
  Feb 19, 2025 229   Gardner-Webb W 78-72 71%    
  Feb 22, 2025 176   @ UNC Asheville L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 26, 2025 190   Winthrop W 80-76 64%    
  Mar 01, 2025 342   @ South Carolina Upstate W 80-72 76%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.3 6.4 6.1 3.4 1.1 0.2 21.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.5 8.4 4.5 1.1 0.1 20.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 5.3 7.7 3.0 0.3 0.0 17.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.4 6.8 2.2 0.1 0.0 14.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.1 5.6 2.0 0.1 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.1 1.6 0.1 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 1.1 0.1 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 5.2 8.8 12.4 15.1 16.1 14.9 11.2 7.2 3.5 1.1 0.2 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
14-2 97.5% 3.4    3.1 0.3 0.0
13-3 84.5% 6.1    4.5 1.5 0.1
12-4 56.7% 6.4    3.0 2.9 0.5 0.0
11-5 22.5% 3.3    0.7 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
10-6 3.8% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 21.2% 21.2 12.7 6.4 1.7 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 48.2% 48.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 1.1% 41.6% 41.6% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
14-2 3.5% 37.4% 37.4% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.2
13-3 7.2% 31.4% 31.4% 13.5 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.1 4.9
12-4 11.2% 25.2% 25.2% 13.8 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 8.4
11-5 14.9% 19.9% 19.9% 14.2 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.9 0.0 11.9
10-6 16.1% 14.9% 14.9% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.1 13.7
9-7 15.1% 12.0% 12.0% 14.7 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.1 13.3
8-8 12.4% 8.8% 8.8% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 11.3
7-9 8.8% 7.8% 7.8% 15.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 8.1
6-10 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 15.6 0.1 0.2 5.0
5-11 2.6% 4.0% 4.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.5
4-12 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-13 0.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-14 0.1% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.5 6.0 4.8 1.1 83.7 0.0%