Longwood
Big South
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#190
Expected Predictive Rating+0.7#160
Pace70.4#124
Improvement-2.2#282

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#165
First Shot-0.7#196
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#111
Layup/Dunks+2.2#102
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#182
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.5#350
Freethrows+3.8#19
Improvement+3.7#22

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#229
First Shot-3.0#270
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#94
Layups/Dunks-5.8#350
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#42
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#129
Freethrows-0.4#216
Improvement-5.9#361
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.8% 13.1% 9.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.0
.500 or above 98.8% 99.8% 97.0%
.500 or above in Conference 89.9% 96.3% 78.4%
Conference Champion 2.7% 3.9% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round11.7% 13.1% 9.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Radford (Home) - 64.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 36 - 7
Quad 412 - 518 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 329   Morgan St. W 84-66 86%     1 - 0 +5.0 -0.6 +4.9
  Nov 13, 2024 133   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-62 48%     2 - 0 +13.1 -7.6 +18.9
  Nov 16, 2024 307   Tennessee Martin W 64-62 82%     3 - 0 -8.9 -13.1 +4.2
  Nov 19, 2024 313   @ Binghamton W 66-60 68%     4 - 0 -0.3 -1.0 +1.6
  Nov 22, 2024 96   UAB W 89-81 27%     5 - 0 +12.9 +11.7 +1.0
  Nov 24, 2024 87   McNeese St. L 69-84 22%     5 - 1 -8.5 -0.5 -7.9
  Nov 25, 2024 55   Kansas St. L 64-80 15%     5 - 2 -6.1 -3.8 -2.2
  Dec 05, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 80-76 94%     6 - 2 -15.2 -0.1 -15.0
  Dec 14, 2024 295   NC Central L 70-77 79%     6 - 3 -16.8 -8.5 -8.4
  Dec 18, 2024 178   @ Campbell W 77-55 38%     7 - 3 +23.7 +12.3 +12.9
  Dec 20, 2024 295   @ NC Central W 82-67 63%     8 - 3 +10.1 +6.8 +3.6
  Dec 29, 2024 42   @ SMU L 82-98 8%     8 - 4 -1.9 +8.1 -8.6
  Jan 02, 2025 283   @ Presbyterian L 60-68 61%     8 - 5 0 - 1 -12.2 -12.1 -0.7
  Jan 04, 2025 285   Charleston Southern W 83-78 77%     9 - 5 1 - 1 -4.3 +8.2 -12.3
  Jan 08, 2025 172   UNC Asheville W 85-76 56%     10 - 5 2 - 1 +6.1 +8.7 -2.5
  Jan 11, 2025 205   @ Winthrop L 76-95 43%     10 - 6 2 - 2 -18.7 -2.3 -15.4
  Jan 16, 2025 107   High Point W 82-80 39%     11 - 6 3 - 2 +3.5 +5.0 -1.5
  Jan 22, 2025 204   @ Radford W 77-74 43%     12 - 6 4 - 2 +3.4 +10.2 -6.5
  Jan 25, 2025 346   South Carolina Upstate W 80-54 89%     13 - 6 5 - 2 +11.5 -0.9 +12.3
  Jan 29, 2025 236   @ Gardner-Webb L 87-92 52%     13 - 7 5 - 3 -6.9 +7.3 -14.0
  Feb 01, 2025 285   @ Charleston Southern L 85-89 61%     13 - 8 5 - 4 -8.3 +10.5 -18.8
  Feb 08, 2025 204   Radford W 74-71 64%    
  Feb 12, 2025 107   @ High Point L 75-83 22%    
  Feb 15, 2025 283   Presbyterian W 76-68 79%    
  Feb 19, 2025 236   Gardner-Webb W 80-74 71%    
  Feb 22, 2025 172   @ UNC Asheville L 76-80 35%    
  Feb 26, 2025 205   Winthrop W 83-80 64%    
  Mar 01, 2025 346   @ South Carolina Upstate W 84-76 76%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 1.2 2.7 1st
2nd 0.4 4.4 6.3 0.6 11.7 2nd
3rd 1.3 14.0 19.1 3.7 0.0 38.0 3rd
4th 0.5 9.1 13.7 2.1 0.0 25.4 4th
5th 0.1 3.3 9.0 2.2 0.0 14.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.8 1.4 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.2 1.9 8.0 20.7 30.3 25.6 11.4 1.9 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 65.1% 1.2    0.5 0.6 0.2
11-5 12.6% 1.4    0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 1.9% 16.9% 16.9% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.6
11-5 11.4% 18.0% 18.0% 14.1 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.0 9.3
10-6 25.6% 13.9% 13.9% 14.7 0.1 1.2 2.1 0.2 22.1
9-7 30.3% 11.0% 11.0% 15.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 0.5 26.9
8-8 20.7% 9.3% 9.3% 15.2 0.1 1.3 0.5 18.8
7-9 8.0% 6.1% 6.1% 15.6 0.2 0.3 7.5
6-10 1.9% 3.8% 3.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.8
5-11 0.2% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 14.8 0.1 0.6 3.0 6.5 1.6 88.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 13.1 15.6 59.4 21.9 3.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%