Longwood
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.7 262
Results Rating -7.3 281
Pace 70.6 125
Improvement +4.9 26

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 278 D+ C D- C+ C-
Defense C- 225 D- B- B- D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 175 C 58% 176 +0.1 170
2 Pt. Jumpers 45% 103 C- 36% 239 +0.8 135
Three Pointers 37% 256 D 30% 320 -4.0 313
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 241 D+ -2.6 273
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 276
Second Chance C+ 32.6% 114 D+ 0.95 295 C 0.31 182
Turnovers D- 19.9% 338
Freethrows C+ 0.32 137 C+ 74% 143 C+ 0.24 124
Total Offense D+ -4.0 278

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 47% 208 C 11.2% 192
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 16% 315 B 3.0% 51
Three Pointers C 85% 177 C 1.0% 207
Total D+ 51% 289 C 5.4% 171

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 126 F+ 66% 351 +4.7 331
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 333 C- 39% 222 -1.9 44
Three Pointers 44% 89 C- 35% 247 +2.4 294
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 323 D- +4.2 331
1st FG Attempt D- 1.13 334
Second Chance C+ 29.3% 136 B 0.93 52 B- 0.27 69
Turnovers B- 18.5% 77
Freethrows D 0.35 307 B- 70% 77 D+ 0.25 279
Total Defense C- -1.7 225

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 103 D- 6.0% 345
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 92 D- 1.4% 348
Three Pointers C- 85% 219 C+ 1.2% 100
Total C 55% 158 D- 3.2% 342

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.8 119 17.3 182
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 246 0.18 217
Improvement +0.7 #150 +4.2 #22

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 279 262 240
Results Rating Rank 306 278 252
Conference Record 7 - 9 8 - 8 8 - 8
Conference Finish 6 5 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1% 3% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 55% 100% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 2% 2%
First Round2% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Radford (Home) - 55.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 41 - 9
Quad 412 - 813 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 98 @Pittsburgh L 60 - 78 10% -5  5% 0 - 1 D -10 F -12 F D A+ B- +2 D+ B B+
 Wed, Nov 12 201 James Madison W 82 - 72 49% +8  86% 1 - 1 C+ +5 C+ +3 D- D B+ C+ +2 C- A D+
 Sat, Nov 15 359 Binghamton W 90 - 82 89% +14  92% 2 - 1 D -11 C -0 D B- D- F -11 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 349 Maryland Eastern Shore L 82 - 83 2OT 84% -3  15% 2 - 2 F+ -17 F+ -10 F B F D- -8 F C+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 203 @Columbia L 70 - 95 27% -13  1% 2 - 3 F -24 D- -8 B+ F F F -16 F D- D+
 Fri, Nov 28 191 Siena L 63 - 70 36% -3  26% 2 - 4 D -9 F -12 F B+ F B- +2 F A B
 Sat, Nov 29 343 Maine W 65 - 61 74% +3  85% 3 - 4 D -8 D -6 A F F C- -2 C F C+
 Sun, Nov 30 253 @American L 66 - 92 36% -8  25% 3 - 5 F -28 F -12 F F A F -16 F F+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 350 @Morgan St. W 84 - 80 68% +1  53% 4 - 5 D+ -7 D+ -2 D A- F D+ -4 F+ B+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 361 Delaware St. L 76 - 81 90% -5  8% 4 - 6 F -25 C- -1 C D F F -25 F A F
 Wed, Dec 17 65 @Wake Forest L 68 - 71 6% -2  22% 4 - 7 B +9 D -6 F B- B A+ +14 A A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 352 @NC Central W 74 - 72 69% +2  66% 5 - 7 D -9 F+ -8 F B- F C -1 C- B+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 135 Winthrop W 82 - 70 33% +7  93% 6 - 7 1 - 0 B +11 B+ +8 B+ A+ D- B +4 A+ B D-
 Sat, Jan 3 90 @High Point L 67 - 80 9% -7  3% 6 - 8 1 - 1 C- -4 D+ -3 C+ C+ C- C- -2 D+ C B-
 Wed, Jan 7 223 @UNC Asheville L 61 - 72 31% -6  1% 6 - 9 1 - 2 D- -12 D- -7 D- D- C D -5 F+ B D+
 Sat, Jan 10 277 Presbyterian W 77 - 70 64% +10  97% 7 - 9 2 - 2 C- -3 B +6 B+ B C D- -8 F A C+
 Sat, Jan 17 233 @Radford L 83 - 85 32% -11  0% 7 - 10 2 - 3 C- -3 B +7 C+ A+ F+ F+ -10 F A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 21 364 Gardner-Webb W 91 - 56 92% +17  96% 8 - 10 3 - 3 B+ +13 B- +5 C+ A+ D A- +8 B C A+
 Fri, Jan 23 268 Charleston Southern W 81 - 79 OT 63% +6  82% 9 - 10 4 - 3 D+ -7 F -10 C- F F B- +3 D B A+
 Thu, Jan 29 297 @South Carolina Upstate L 60 - 65 47% -2  24% 9 - 11 4 - 4 D -10 F -16 F+ D- F B+ +6 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 90 High Point L 59 - 71 20% -6  17% 9 - 12 4 - 5 D -9 F -11 F+ D+ F C+ +1 C+ A+ D+
 Wed, Feb 4 364 @Gardner-Webb W 86 - 66 82% +9  99% 10 - 12 5 - 5 C+ +4 C+ +2 A- F C- B- +2 F+ A- A
 Sat, Feb 7 135 @Winthrop L 74 - 79 16% -2  20% 10 - 13 5 - 6 C -0 D- -7 F D- C+ A- +8 A- A+ B+
 Thu, Feb 12 223 UNC Asheville L 74 - 79 54% -0  54% 10 - 14 5 - 7 D- -12 C- -1 B- C+ B- F -11 F+ D- F
 Sat, Feb 14 297 South Carolina Upstate W 82 - 75 OT 69% +3  76% 11 - 14 6 - 7 C- -4 F -10 D C- D+ B +5 B+ F A+
 Thu, Feb 19 277 @Presbyterian L 65 - 72 42% +3  64% 11 - 15 6 - 8 D -11 F+ -8 B B- F C- -3 F B B-
 Sat, Feb 21 268 @Charleston Southern W 107 - 96 2OT 40% -5  14% 12 - 15 7 - 8 B- +8 A +12 D- A+ B D -6 F D A
 Sat, Feb 28 233 Radford W 79 - 78 55%
Totals 13 - 15 8 - 8 -6 D+ -4 C D+ C- C- -2 D C+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C C- D D+ 39% 45% 37% C- D+ C+ D+ C D- C+ C+ C+ C- F+ C- C- D- 41% 15% 44% D D- C+ B B- B- D B- D+
1.03 58% 36% 30% -3 0 0.96 33% 0.9 .31 20% .32 74% .24 1.11 66% 39% 35% +4 +1 1.13 29% 0.9 .27 19% .35 70% .23
Nov
7		 Pittsburgh F F F F F 53% 16% 32% B+ F C- F D A+ D- A+ D+ B- F A+ F D- 20% 18% 61% A D+ B B B B+ F C- F
0.86 40% 22% 22% -18 +2 0.70 24% 0.7 .16 10% .22 86% .19 1.11 78% 13% 41% +6 -1 1.11 32% 0.9 .29 20% .62 69% .43
Nov
12		 James Madison C+ D B+ F F+ 43% 20% 37% C+ D- B F D B+ A+ A+ A+ C+ F+ A+ B C 46% 10% 44% F C- A+ B- A D+ D+ A+ B
1.17 50% 44% 24% -8 +1 0.87 35% 0.7 .25 10% .67 86% .57 1.03 67% 20% 30% 0 +2 1.06 19% 1.0 .19 16% .32 53% .17
Nov
15		 Binghamton C A+ F F D 37% 13% 50% C D B+ D+ B- D- A+ B+ A+ F F F A- F 44% 10% 46% F F F F F A+ F+ D+ F
1.21 84% 14% 27% +1 +1 1.06 38% 1.0 .38 15% .48 77% .36 1.11 71% 60% 27% +4 +2 1.13 47% 1.0 .47 28% .43 78% .34
Nov
18		 Maryland Eastern Shore F+ F+ D- F F 46% 27% 27% D+ F A- D+ B F A+ A+ A+ D- F B F+ F 33% 22% 44% C F F A+ C+ A+ D+ A+ B+
1.02 50% 31% 23% -10 0 0.81 41% 1.1 .43 24% .55 88% .49 1.03 89% 33% 38% +12 -1 1.24 44% 0.5 .23 30% .26 47% .12
Nov
23		 Columbia D- F A+ A+ A 44% 27% 29% D+ B+ F F F F C F D F C+ B- F F 28% 16% 56% B+ F D+ D- D- D+ A- D B+
0.97 43% 64% 47% +6 0 1.13 19% 0.2 .03 21% .30 65% .19 1.31 56% 33% 53% +15 0 1.32 37% 1.1 .40 19% .21 75% .15
Nov
28		 Siena F B F F F+ 30% 30% 40% D- F B- B+ B+ F B A+ A B- F F C F 33% 20% 48% D F A+ C- A B F A+ D+
0.93 64% 29% 26% -6 -2 0.87 35% 1.1 .38 28% .33 81% .27 1.04 80% 56% 32% +9 0 1.20 17% 1.0 .17 19% .40 59% .24
Nov
29		 Maine D A A+ A A+ 37% 37% 26% F A C F F F A+ F A C- A- F B- C 40% 17% 43% D C F F F C+ B- A+ A
1.01 71% 50% 40% +12 -2 1.21 37% 0.7 .26 30% .47 62% .29 0.95 47% 50% 30% -5 +1 0.94 28% 1.3 .36 22% .30 47% .14
Nov
30		 American F C- F F F 45% 19% 36% C+ F C- F F A A+ B+ A+ F F B- F+ F 33% 12% 55% C F C F F+ C F F F
0.92 57% 11% 12% -18 +1 0.68 30% 0.5 .15 14% .68 76% .52 1.28 71% 33% 39% +8 +1 1.20 25% 1.3 .32 17% .50 90% .45
Dec
6		 Morgan St. D+ D F A+ D 46% 18% 36% D+ D C- A+ A- F A+ D- A+ D+ C F A D- 44% 19% 37% F F+ A C- B+ C D+ F F
1.12 56% 14% 43% -1 +1 1.03 33% 1.6 .53 20% .74 66% .49 1.07 54% 70% 25% -1 +1 1.02 21% 0.9 .18 19% .36 91% .33
Dec
13		 Delaware St. C- A+ A+ F C 38% 16% 47% C- C B F D F B+ A+ A+ F F+ F F F 46% 28% 26% F F B+ A+ A F F C F
1.14 82% 57% 24% +5 +1 1.13 38% 0.8 .31 24% .39 90% .36 1.21 62% 46% 67% +17 0 1.35 19% 0.4 .07 13% .43 68% .29
Dec
17		 Wake Forest D D- F F F 35% 12% 54% B- F D+ A+ B- B B B B+ A+ C- F A+ A 38% 17% 45% C- A A+ A+ A+ C- F B F
0.93 50% 17% 25% -13 +1 0.79 28% 1.3 .35 18% .35 76% .27 0.97 61% 63% 19% -5 0 0.94 17% 0.8 .14 14% .48 73% .35
Dec
20		 NC Central F+ C+ A F F 38% 18% 44% C- F A- C- B- F A+ D+ A+ C F A A+ C- 40% 23% 36% C C- A- B+ B+ C- F F+ F
1.04 65% 50% 25% -1 0 1.00 44% 0.9 .42 25% .45 71% .32 1.02 84% 27% 12% -4 0 0.94 23% 0.9 .19 17% .51 80% .41
Dec
31		 Winthrop B+ C+ F+ A+ B 52% 13% 35% A- B+ A+ C+ A+ D- B+ D+ B B A+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 8% 44% F+ A+ D- A+ B D- F D F
1.21 60% 33% 41% +4 +2 1.15 44% 1.1 .50 19% .38 71% .27 1.04 39% 25% 24% -17 +2 0.73 39% 0.8 .30 12% .54 78% .42
Jan
3		 High Point D+ B F C C 44% 16% 40% C+ C+ C+ C+ C+ C- F+ D- F C- F A+ A+ C- 51% 8% 41% F+ D+ A+ F C B- D C- D
1.01 65% 29% 33% +1 +1 1.07 33% 1.1 .36 23% .23 67% .16 1.21 77% 25% 24% +2 +3 1.12 22% 1.7 .37 15% .39 77% .30
Jan
7		 UNC Asheville D- C+ F D- F+ 42% 17% 42% C D- D- D- D- C A- D+ B D D B+ F F+ 35% 26% 39% F F+ F A+ B D+ F+ A D+
0.96 60% 13% 30% -6 +1 0.92 26% 0.8 .20 16% .37 65% .24 1.13 63% 33% 44% +6 -1 1.13 44% 0.5 .22 16% .39 62% .24
Jan
10		 Presbyterian B B- C A+ A- 43% 20% 37% C- B+ A- C B C D+ A+ B- D- F C- F F 43% 11% 45% F F A A- A C+ C+ B+ B-
1.22 62% 40% 44% +8 0 1.18 39% 1.0 .39 16% .26 86% .23 1.11 68% 40% 40% +9 +2 1.23 24% 0.9 .21 21% .32 63% .20
Jan
17		 Radford B C A- A- B 34% 26% 40% F+ C+ A- A+ A+ F+ C D- C- F+ F A+ F F 40% 16% 44% C- F B A+ A+ D+ F A F
1.19 59% 46% 40% +6 -1 1.12 41% 1.4 .56 22% .33 67% .22 1.22 80% 25% 41% +11 +1 1.26 25% 0.6 .16 16% .53 65% .34
Jan
21		 Gardner-Webb B- A+ A+ F B- 37% 23% 40% D C+ A+ A A+ D D+ A- C- A- A+ F A- B+ 46% 17% 38% C- B F A+ C A+ C+ A+ B
1.30 79% 58% 29% +9 0 1.19 48% 1.3 .61 17% .26 80% .21 0.80 41% 50% 28% -9 +1 0.85 33% 0.6 .21 30% .25 58% .14
Jan
23		 Charleston Southern F F+ B- B C- 51% 33% 16% C- C- F F+ F F A+ A+ A+ B- B B- F D 35% 6% 59% D+ D C- A B A+ F C+ D-
0.99 46% 41% 38% -4 -1 0.92 21% 0.9 .18 21% .52 82% .43 0.97 53% 33% 41% +4 +2 1.13 30% 0.7 .21 27% .33 65% .22
Jan
29		 South Carolina Upstate F C+ B F D- 41% 22% 37% D+ F+ B- F D- F F F F B+ F+ A+ D D- 52% 8% 40% F F C+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A
0.85 59% 42% 20% -7 0 0.89 34% 0.8 .26 24% .17 44% .07 0.92 64% 0% 37% +2 +3 1.10 27% 0.5 .14 26% .31 44% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 High Point F B- F D- F+ 34% 23% 43% D- F+ B F D+ F F A- F C+ D A+ B B- 50% 7% 43% F+ C+ A+ D+ A+ D+ D+ D- D
0.93 63% 18% 30% -6 -1 0.89 36% 0.8 .30 29% .20 78% .16 1.12 65% 0% 30% -2 +3 1.04 17% 1.2 .21 13% .38 81% .31
Feb
4		 Gardner-Webb C+ A+ C C B+ 58% 15% 26% A- A- F F F C- B F C- B- D+ C+ C+ D- 53% 6% 40% F F+ D+ A+ A- A F A D-
1.21 77% 38% 36% +12 +2 1.30 25% 0.7 .18 15% .33 60% .20 0.93 60% 33% 32% -1 +3 1.06 25% 0.5 .13 25% .38 60% .23
Feb
7		 Winthrop D- A F F F+ 25% 31% 43% F F D+ F D- C+ A+ F A+ A- F A+ A+ A- 32% 11% 57% C+ A- A+ F A+ B+ F F F
0.96 69% 31% 23% -7 -2 0.84 27% 0.9 .24 16% .54 63% .34 1.02 67% 20% 22% -9 +1 0.85 14% 1.6 .22 18% .63 88% .55
Feb
12		 UNC Asheville C- A F+ C+ B 35% 18% 47% D+ B- A F+ C+ B- A- F C+ F C+ D F F+ 37% 33% 31% D- F+ D- C- D- F C- F+ D
1.10 71% 33% 35% +4 0 1.10 41% 0.8 .31 15% .38 59% .23 1.17 56% 44% 47% +7 -2 1.12 34% 1.0 .34 12% .34 75% .25
Feb
14		 South Carolina Upstate F F F A+ D- 57% 20% 23% B- D C D+ C- D+ B D C+ B C+ A- A+ A- 50% 25% 25% C- B+ F F F A+ F+ A+ C
0.98 38% 25% 57% -6 +1 0.93 30% 1.1 .33 17% .34 67% .23 0.90 54% 29% 21% -9 0 0.84 35% 1.3 .46 25% .37 57% .21
Feb
19		 Presbyterian F+ A B- B A- 41% 39% 20% F B D+ A B- F B F D C- F F D F 44% 30% 26% C+ F B+ C B B- F A- F
0.98 71% 44% 38% +8 -2 1.15 29% 1.3 .36 29% .34 50% .17 1.08 68% 54% 36% +10 -1 1.21 27% 1.0 .27 21% .50 62% .30
Feb
21		 Charleston Southern A F A D- D- 40% 31% 29% D+ D- A+ C+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ D F F F F 49% 4% 47% F F C F D A F C- F+
1.26 37% 48% 30% -7 -1 0.85 43% 1.1 .47 9% .45 91% .42 1.13 69% 50% 44% +13 +3 1.34 29% 1.1 .32 24% .34 68% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 5.6 5.6 3rd
4th 1.3 23.9 25.2 4th
5th 30.6 25.1 55.7 5th
6th 12.8 0.7 13.5 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 44.8 55.2 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 55.2% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.1 1.4 53.8
7-9 44.8% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 1.0 43.8
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 16.0 97.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 15.9 6.0 94.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 20.5%
Lose Out 26.6%