Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.2 #161
Expected Predictive Rating -0.8 #182
Pace 65.9 #258
Improvement -3.6 #327

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #311 D+ C- C- D+ D
Defense #51 B C+ B- D B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #264 1.16 #174 -1.8 #248
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #45 0.82 #81 +3.8 #29
Three Pointers 36% #278 0.85 #353 -5.5 #332
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #283 -3.4 #282
Freethrows 0.25 #331 78% #11 0.19 #270
Second Chance 24.8% #331 1.13 #61 0.28 #256
Turnovers 17.8% #258
Total Offense -5.4 #311

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #213 1.15 #164 +0.7 #151
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #39 0.66 #40 -0.9 #261
Three Pointers 36% #309 0.87 #21 +5.1 #13
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #44 +4.9 #45
Freethrows 0.36 #327 71% #95 0.26 #315
Second Chance 29.7% #140 1.01 #145 0.30 #138
Turnovers 18.8% #64
Total Defense +5.2 #51

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.4% #318 -1.5% #60
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.5% #254 -8.1% #45
Possession Length 17.6 #218 17.3 #202
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #280 0.11 #28
Improvement +0.0 #179 -3.6 #342

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.1% 25.5% 19.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 14.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.6%
Conference Champion 29.1% 30.5% 9.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Round25.1% 25.5% 19.0%
Second Round0.8% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rider (Home) - 93.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 32 - 52 - 6
Quad 419 - 420 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 83 @Xavier L 62 - 66 17% -4  0 - 1 +6 -4 B C- F +9 A+ C- B+
 Sun, Nov 9 229 @Dartmouth W 75 - 56 52% +8  1 - 1 +18 -1 C C- F +19 A+ C+ A+
 Sun, Nov 16 165 Harvard L 54 - 56 62% -1  1 - 2 -5 -15 F+ F F +9 A+ C A+
 Fri, Nov 21 336 Army W 76 - 65 90% +4  2 - 2 -3 -2 D C+ C -1 C- A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 301 Lehigh W 78 - 55 85% +13  3 - 2 +12 +4 B- D- B+ +9 A+ D F
 Fri, Dec 5 289 Mount St. Mary's W 64 - 56 83% +2  4 - 2 1 - 0 -2 -13 D C+ F +10 A C A+
 Sun, Dec 7 327 Manhattan W 80 - 68 88% +3  5 - 2 2 - 0 -1 -8 F+ D+ C- +5 C+ A+ B+
 Sat, Dec 13 347 @Bryant W 82 - 74 79% +6  6 - 2 -1 +8 B- D+ D -8 F A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 16 115 @Georgia Tech L 76 - 87 27% -8  6 - 3 -5 +10 B- A+ C+ -15 F D- A-
 Sun, Dec 21 217 Stony Brook W 70 - 51 72% +13  7 - 3 +13 -2 D- B- B+ +16 A+ A B-
 Mon, Dec 29 186 @Quinnipiac L 58 - 64 45% -3  7 - 4 2 - 1 -5 -12 F C F +7 A+ F+ A+
 Fri, Jan 2 235 @St. Peter's L 59 - 69 53% -3  7 - 5 2 - 2 -11 -12 F F C +0 A F C
 Sun, Jan 4 231 Iona W 83 - 38 74% +21  8 - 5 3 - 2 +38 +8 D A+ A+ +30 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 9 276 @Sacred Heart W 76 - 72 62% -2  9 - 5 4 - 2 +1 +7 C A- C -6 D+ F B
 Sun, Jan 11 352 @Rider W 71 - 49 81% +12  10 - 5 5 - 2 +12 -3 C F C- +17 A- A- C
 Sat, Jan 17 272 Fairfield W 82 - 67 80% +13  11 - 5 6 - 2 +6 +8 B A+ F+ -1 A+ F+ C-
 Mon, Jan 19 201 Merrimack L 55 - 68 70% -6  11 - 6 6 - 3 -19 -14 F D- C- -5 D- A B
 Thu, Jan 22 174 @Siena L 50 - 69 42% -4  11 - 7 6 - 4 -17 -15 F F B+ -5 B+ F F+
 Sat, Jan 24 186 Quinnipiac W 71 - 64 67% +8  12 - 7 7 - 4 +2 +1 B- D C- +1 B A+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 345 @Canisius W 88 - 86 OT 79% -1  13 - 7 8 - 4 -7 +8 A- F+ D -15 F F D
 Sun, Feb 1 349 @Niagara W 58 - 46 80% +5  14 - 7 9 - 4 +3 -10 F F B +15 A+ B- A+
 Thu, Feb 5 352 Rider W 73 - 58 93%
 Sat, Feb 7 272 @Fairfield W 69 - 66 61%
 Thu, Feb 12 201 @Merrimack L 62 - 63 47%
 Sun, Feb 15 174 Siena W 67 - 63 63%
 Fri, Feb 20 327 @Manhattan W 74 - 67 75%
 Sun, Feb 22 276 Sacred Heart W 76 - 67 81%
 Sun, Mar 1 235 St. Peter's W 67 - 60 73%
Totals 19 - 9 14 - 6 +0 -5 D+ C- C- +5 B C+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 4.0 15.8 9.2 29.1 1st
2nd 0.0 2.7 16.7 9.1 0.3 28.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 10.4 9.5 0.3 21.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 4.2 7.7 0.6 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 3.9 1.1 6.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.8 9.4 22.1 30.7 25.2 9.5 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 96.8% 9.2    7.1 2.0 0.1
15-5 62.9% 15.8    5.2 7.7 2.8 0.2
14-6 12.9% 4.0    0.2 1.0 1.9 0.8 0.1
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.1% 29.1 12.5 10.6 4.8 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 9.5% 33.9% 33.9% 13.2 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.1 0.0 6.3
15-5 25.2% 30.1% 30.1% 14.1 0.0 1.3 4.4 1.8 0.1 17.6
14-6 30.7% 26.2% 26.2% 14.4 0.0 0.4 3.8 3.7 0.2 22.7
13-7 22.1% 19.8% 19.8% 14.8 0.1 1.2 2.6 0.5 17.7
12-8 9.4% 16.6% 16.6% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 7.8
11-9 2.8% 11.0% 11.0% 15.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 2.5
10-10 0.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 25.1% 25.1% 0.0% 14.3 74.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.2% 100.0% 13.2 0.3 11.2 54.5 33.2 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.3%