Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -1.3 181
Results Rating -2.6 208
Pace 65.4 265
Improvement -4.6 336

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 312 D+ C- C- D+ D
Defense B 66 B- C+ B- D+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 244 C- 56% 219 -1.9 249
2 Pt. Jumpers 44% 110 B- 41% 83 +3.4 39
Three Pointers 36% 281 F+ 29% 344 -5.1 328
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.0 308 D+ -2.6 271
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 293
Second Chance D 25.8% 308 B 1.13 53 C- 0.29 220
Turnovers C- 17.9% 256
Freethrows D- 0.25 342 A- 79% 8 D+ 0.20 277
Total Offense D -5.5 312

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B+ 61% 26 D+ 13.0% 297
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 30% 114 B+ 2.4% 25
Three Pointers C+ 87% 134 C 0.9% 188
Total B- 59% 100 C 5.7% 201

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 214 C- 60% 222 -0.1 178
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 45 C+ 37% 111 +1.5 302
Three Pointers 37% 293 A- 29% 16 -4.7 20
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.7 64 B- -2.6 74
1st FG Attempt B- 0.95 71
Second Chance C+ 29.5% 146 C+ 1.00 130 C+ 0.29 126
Turnovers B- 18.8% 71
Freethrows D 0.35 316 B 69% 41 D+ 0.25 278
Total Defense B +4.2 66

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 114 D 7.8% 311
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 22% 123 C- 4.3% 204
Three Pointers C 83% 148 B- 1.3% 83
Total B 50% 64 D+ 4.5% 267

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 216 17.7 254
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 298 0.12 34
Improvement +0.4 #158 -5.1 #353

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 207 182 156
Results Rating Rank 231 205 139
Conference Record 11 - 9 13 - 7 13 - 7
Conference Finish 5 4 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16% 17% 14%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 15.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round16% 17% 14%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Home) - 80.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 31 - 71 - 8
Quad 418 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 84 @Xavier L 62 - 66 15% -4  37% 0 - 1 B- +6 D- -7 B C- F A+ +13 A+ C A-
 Sun, Nov 9 250 @Dartmouth W 75 - 56 52% +8  99% 1 - 1 A- +17 D+ -3 C C- F A+ +20 A+ C A+
 Sun, Nov 16 146 Harvard L 54 - 56 54% -1  33% 1 - 2 C- -4 F -15 D- F F A +11 A+ C A
 Fri, Nov 21 338 Army W 76 - 65 89% +4  69% 2 - 2 C- -4 D+ -4 D B- C+ C+ +1 D+ A+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 307 Lehigh W 78 - 55 83% +13  85% 3 - 2 B+ +11 C +0 B- D B+ A+ +12 A+ D- F
 Fri, Dec 5 284 Mount St. Mary's W 64 - 56 80% +2  46% 4 - 2 1 - 0 C- -2 F -15 D C+ F A+ +13 A+ C A+
 Sun, Dec 7 319 Manhattan W 80 - 68 86% +3  71% 5 - 2 2 - 0 C -1 F -11 F D+ C- A +9 C+ A+ B
 Sat, Dec 13 354 @Bryant W 82 - 74 83% +6  72% 6 - 2 C- -3 C+ +3 C+ D+ D- D -6 F A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 16 140 @Georgia Tech L 76 - 87 30% -8  19% 6 - 3 D+ -7 B +6 C+ A+ B- F -13 F D A-
 Sun, Dec 21 214 Stony Brook W 70 - 51 68% +13  90% 7 - 3 B+ +13 D+ -4 D B- A- A+ +18 A+ A B
 Mon, Dec 29 192 @Quinnipiac L 58 - 64 41% -3  11% 7 - 4 2 - 1 D+ -5 F -13 F C+ F A- +7 A F A
 Fri, Jan 2 235 @St. Peter's L 59 - 69 49% -3  27% 7 - 5 2 - 2 D -11 F -14 F F C+ B- +3 A F C-
 Sun, Jan 4 249 Iona W 83 - 38 73% +21  87% 8 - 5 3 - 2 A+ +37 B- +4 D- A+ A+ A+ +33 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 9 286 @Sacred Heart W 76 - 72 62% -2  34% 9 - 5 4 - 2 C -0 B- +4 C A C D+ -4 D+ F B+
 Sun, Jan 11 356 @Rider W 71 - 49 84% +12  93% 10 - 5 5 - 2 B +10 D- -6 D+ F C A+ +18 A- B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 264 Fairfield W 82 - 67 76% +13  99% 11 - 5 6 - 2 B- +6 B- +5 B A+ F C+ +2 A+ F+ C-
 Mon, Jan 19 160 Merrimack L 55 - 68 57% -6  5% 11 - 6 6 - 3 F+ -16 F -16 F D- D+ C -1 D A B
 Thu, Jan 22 191 @Siena L 50 - 69 41% -4  25% 11 - 7 6 - 4 F -18 F -18 F F B+ D+ -3 B+ F F+
 Sat, Jan 24 192 Quinnipiac W 71 - 64 64% +8  92% 12 - 7 7 - 4 C+ +2 C +0 B D C- B- +2 B- A+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 344 @Canisius W 88 - 86 OT 78% -1  49% 13 - 7 8 - 4 D+ -7 B +6 A F+ D F -14 F F D
 Sun, Feb 1 336 @Niagara W 58 - 46 76% +5  86% 14 - 7 9 - 4 C+ +3 F -13 F F B A+ +18 A+ C+ A
 Thu, Feb 5 356 Rider W 81 - 52 93% +18  91% 15 - 7 10 - 4 B +11 A +12 A+ C- D+ B +5 B+ D+ B-
 Sat, Feb 7 264 @Fairfield L 60 - 63 56% -4  10% 15 - 8 10 - 5 D+ -6 F+ -10 F C F B- +3 C B+ D
 Thu, Feb 12 160 @Merrimack L 56 - 81 34% -6  42% 15 - 9 10 - 6 F -22 F -13 F B- C- F -10 F A+ D
 Sun, Feb 15 191 Siena L 63 - 67 64% -8  4% 15 - 10 10 - 7 D -9 F -11 F D A+ C+ +2 F A+ B+
 Fri, Feb 20 319 @Manhattan W 84 - 70 71% +7  65% 16 - 10 11 - 7 B- +7 A- +10 B+ A C+ C- -2 C+ F B-
 Sun, Feb 22 286 Sacred Heart W 76 - 67 81%
 Sun, Mar 1 235 St. Peter's W 67 - 61 71%
Totals 18 - 10 13 - 7 -1 D -5 C D+ D B +4 F+ A- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D C- B- F+ D+ 36% 44% 36% D D+ D B C- C- D- A- D+ B C- C+ A- B- 37% 26% 37% B B- C+ C+ C+ B- D B D+
1.01 56% 41% 29% -3 -1 0.95 26% 1.1 .29 18% .25 79% .20 1.03 60% 37% 29% -3 -1 0.95 29% 1.0 .29 19% .35 69% .17
Nov
3		 Xavier D- A+ A D- A 31% 44% 26% F B C- C- C- F A+ C- A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ 16% 29% 56% A A+ D B C A- F C+ F
0.92 75% 47% 30% +8 -4 1.10 24% 0.8 .20 27% .50 68% .34 0.98 71% 23% 24% -11 -3 0.76 31% 0.9 .28 16% .57 72% .41
Nov
9		 Dartmouth D+ B B+ D B- 33% 27% 40% F+ C D+ B C- F F A+ F A+ A- B- A+ A+ 43% 14% 43% D- A+ C- B C A+ F A- F
1.03 65% 44% 29% +1 -1 1.02 25% 1.1 .28 18% .08 80% .07 0.77 47% 33% 16% -17 +1 0.70 26% 1.0 .26 27% .53 68% .36
Nov
16		 Harvard F F B+ C- F+ 42% 19% 40% C- D- D F F F B F+ C+ A A+ A+ F+ A+ 49% 13% 38% F+ A+ C+ D+ C A F B- F
0.86 40% 44% 32% -8 0 0.88 26% 0.7 .17 24% .31 67% .21 0.89 37% 20% 40% -9 +2 0.87 25% 1.0 .25 24% .48 78% .37
Nov
21		 Army D+ C+ A- F D- 40% 24% 36% C- D A- D B- C+ F A+ F C+ F D A- D 30% 17% 53% A- D+ D- A+ A+ C F F F
1.14 64% 46% 25% -1 0 1.00 39% 1.1 .42 14% .21 92% .19 0.98 71% 38% 28% -1 0 1.00 34% 0.3 .11 18% .33 78% .26
Nov
25		 Lehigh C C+ A+ B- B 33% 25% 42% D B- D D D B+ D+ B- C- A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ 38% 30% 32% B- A+ C+ F D- F D A+ C
1.15 59% 54% 36% +6 -1 1.12 29% 0.9 .26 13% .29 76% .22 0.81 50% 38% 6% -17 -1 0.66 20% 1.4 .27 13% .31 61% .19
Dec
5		 Mount St. Mary's F C D- D+ D+ 34% 32% 34% D- D D- A+ C+ F F A+ D- A+ A+ A+ A A+ 47% 11% 42% D A+ F+ A- C A+ F A+ D
0.89 56% 33% 31% -4 -2 0.91 23% 1.4 .32 27% .25 85% .21 0.78 43% 20% 26% -14 +2 0.78 34% 0.9 .29 29% .42 57% .24
Dec
7		 Manhattan F C+ B F F 35% 15% 50% C+ F C- C- D+ C- C- F D+ A B B- D+ C 35% 33% 33% A- C+ A A+ A+ B F B F
1.06 62% 44% 27% -3 0 0.97 36% 1.1 .38 16% .24 67% .16 0.90 50% 35% 35% -3 -2 0.92 20% 0.5 .10 19% .39 75% .29
Dec
13		 Bryant C+ A D C+ B- 52% 25% 23% D+ C+ D C D+ D- B+ A+ A+ D F F F F 33% 12% 55% C F A A+ A+ B- D A C-
1.19 68% 33% 36% +5 0 1.13 31% 1.0 .31 16% .36 95% .35 1.08 69% 50% 41% +11 +1 1.24 21% 0.3 .07 23% .30 69% .21
Dec
16		 Georgia Tech B F+ C A B 24% 35% 41% F C+ B- A+ A+ B- D F F F F F F F 34% 44% 22% A+ F F A- D A- D+ D- D
1.11 46% 37% 41% +1 -3 0.98 32% 1.5 .49 15% .24 50% .12 1.27 71% 45% 73% +20 -3 1.36 42% 1.0 .42 22% .32 76% .24
Dec
21		 Stony Brook D+ D+ C- D D 35% 23% 42% D+ D D A+ B- A- D- B+ D+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 22% 31% 47% A+ A+ A- A+ A B F A+ D+
1.06 56% 33% 32% -3 -1 0.94 27% 1.2 .32 12% .24 79% .19 0.77 45% 27% 26% -12 -2 0.73 22% 0.7 .15 20% .34 61% .21
Dec
29		 Quinnipiac F D+ F F F 50% 23% 27% C F C- B- C+ F F B+ F A- A+ B- B+ A 31% 33% 35% A A F C- F A F B+ D-
0.85 54% 25% 14% -13 +1 0.77 32% 1.1 .34 22% .17 78% .13 0.94 40% 31% 29% -10 -2 0.77 40% 1.1 .43 22% .37 65% .24
Jan
2		 St. Peter's F F B F F 42% 24% 34% D+ F F F F C+ C A+ A- B- B- A+ A+ A+ 36% 22% 42% C A C F F C- F D F
0.85 33% 42% 18% -18 0 0.66 24% 0.8 .18 19% .41 87% .36 1.00 50% 20% 21% -15 0 0.71 35% 1.3 .45 17% .49 79% .39
Jan
4		 Iona B- D A+ F F+ 39% 18% 43% C D- D A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ C+ A+ B- A- A+ A+ 43% 25% 33% B- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ C-
1.18 54% 55% 23% -6 0 0.92 29% 1.7 .50 8% .23 87% .20 0.54 53% 30% 8% -17 0 0.68 14% 0.6 .08 34% .36 53% .19
Jan
9		 Sacred Heart B- A A+ F C 40% 21% 38% D+ C C+ A+ A C C- C C D+ C- A+ D D+ 37% 11% 52% F+ D+ F D+ F B+ F F F
1.20 74% 50% 28% +5 0 1.13 33% 1.4 .48 14% .26 71% .18 1.13 59% 20% 38% +1 +1 1.07 34% 1.1 .38 22% .44 86% .38
Jan
11		 Rider D- D+ D A+ C- 48% 20% 32% D+ D+ F F F C F A+ F A+ F A A+ B 31% 58% 11% A+ A- A+ F B+ C+ F A+ D
1.07 56% 36% 44% +3 +1 1.11 23% 0.5 .11 14% .10 83% .09 0.74 64% 27% 0% -10 -5 0.71 9% 2.3 .20 18% .39 57% .22
Jan
17		 Fairfield B- A+ B- A+ A 27% 38% 36% F B B+ A+ A+ F A+ A- A+ C+ C+ C+ A+ A+ 30% 32% 38% A A+ C F F+ C- F C- F
1.23 75% 41% 44% +11 -3 1.18 37% 1.4 .52 20% .39 81% .32 1.01 53% 38% 16% -12 -2 0.74 33% 1.2 .40 15% .48 70% .34
Jan
19		 Merrimack F D D- F F 41% 27% 32% D+ F F+ C D- D+ A A+ A+ C F F A+ F+ 39% 24% 37% A D A+ C A B F D+ F
0.85 50% 33% 14% -14 -1 0.73 32% 1.0 .32 20% .43 86% .37 1.05 69% 60% 20% +2 0 1.05 13% 1.0 .13 19% .51 81% .42
Jan
22		 Siena F F C+ D- F 31% 29% 39% D- F F F F B+ F A F D+ A- B+ F C+ 26% 53% 21% A+ B+ B- F F F+ C+ F F+
0.83 44% 40% 30% -6 -2 0.86 9% 0.7 .06 13% .10 80% .08 1.14 50% 36% 40% -1 -5 0.89 28% 2.0 .55 13% .27 100% .27
Jan
24		 Quinnipiac C A- A+ D- B+ 45% 28% 28% D B F A+ D C- C+ B- B- B- B B B+ B+ 51% 18% 31% F B- B- A+ A+ F C- D+ D+
1.07 67% 46% 31% +5 0 1.11 15% 1.8 .27 18% .30 75% .22 0.97 50% 30% 29% -8 +1 0.89 29% 0.7 .20 11% .30 72% .22
Jan
30		 Canisius B A+ A C- A 44% 25% 31% D+ A D+ F F+ D A+ A+ A+ F F D- D F 38% 13% 48% F F F F F D F A F
1.19 81% 50% 33% +13 0 1.27 29% 0.8 .21 18% .46 82% .38 1.16 65% 43% 36% +5 +1 1.13 33% 1.1 .36 18% .43 62% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Niagara F C- C F F 31% 44% 24% F F F A+ F B C- A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ 44% 24% 31% B A+ F A+ C+ A C A C+
0.95 57% 40% 18% -5 -4 0.84 13% 1.8 .23 13% .28 87% .24 0.75 30% 9% 43% -15 0 0.71 30% 0.5 .16 25% .24 64% .15
Feb
5		 Rider A B B- A+ A+ 48% 19% 33% D+ A+ C+ D C- D+ F A+ D B A- D A+ B+ 35% 37% 28% B- B+ F B+ D+ B- A A+ A+
1.37 65% 44% 63% +19 +1 1.42 36% 0.9 .32 15% .16 100% .16 0.88 44% 41% 15% -12 -2 0.74 41% 0.8 .32 19% .19 44% .08
Feb
7		 Fairfield F+ F A+ F+ F 48% 17% 35% C F B D- C F D+ A+ B- B- F C- A+ C- 27% 21% 52% B- C A C+ B+ D C F C-
0.98 43% 50% 29% -7 +1 0.90 35% 0.9 .32 20% .26 92% .24 1.03 77% 40% 24% -2 -1 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 13% .24 77% .19
Feb
12		 Merrimack F F F F F 47% 23% 30% C+ F F+ A+ B- C- F C F+ F F F F F 40% 14% 46% C F A+ A+ A+ D F A+ C-
0.85 36% 27% 21% -18 0 0.66 33% 1.4 .45 20% .26 71% .19 1.22 75% 57% 39% +13 +1 1.30 14% 0.5 .07 14% .44 64% .28
Feb
15		 Siena F D F F F 34% 28% 38% D F C- F+ D A+ A C+ A C+ F+ F A+ F 42% 36% 22% B- F A+ A- A+ B+ D A+ C
0.97 53% 29% 21% -12 -1 0.76 30% 0.8 .23 11% .38 73% .27 1.03 68% 63% 20% +8 -2 1.16 19% 0.8 .15 20% .33 65% .21
Feb
20		 Manhattan A- B- A+ A+ A 36% 30% 34% F+ B+ C+ A+ A C+ B A- A- C- C- F A+ C+ 35% 26% 39% B- C+ F F F B- F C+ F
1.31 65% 57% 44% +13 -1 1.26 38% 1.4 .54 14% .29 81% .24 1.09 56% 50% 22% -4 -1 0.91 35% 1.5 .55 17% .41 77% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 12.9 12.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 29.7 31.3 3rd
4th 0.1 11.9 14.9 27.0 4th
5th 4.9 22.8 27.7 5th
6th 1.2 1.2 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 6.2 36.3 57.5 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 57.5% 18.0% 18.0% 14.3 0.8 5.3 4.1 0.1 47.1
12-8 36.3% 14.9% 14.9% 15.0 0.0 1.0 3.3 1.1 30.9
11-9 6.2% 10.8% 10.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 5.5
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.4% 16.4% 0.0% 14.6 83.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.4% 100.0% 14.3 7.7 51.5 39.9 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 16.3%
Lose Out 1.6%