Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#231
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#137
Pace61.0#349
Improvement+1.9#79

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#260
First Shot-2.7#254
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#219
Layup/Dunks-1.6#233
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#35
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#208
Freethrows-3.3#347
Improvement-1.5#288

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#185
First Shot-1.6#229
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#84
Layups/Dunks-1.6#233
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#218
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#156
Freethrows-1.0#251
Improvement+3.4#9
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.0% 14.0% 9.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 95.9% 97.6% 90.9%
.500 or above in Conference 87.2% 88.8% 82.3%
Conference Champion 23.1% 24.9% 17.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 0.9%
First Four1.4% 1.3% 1.8%
First Round12.2% 13.4% 8.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Binghamton (Home) - 74.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 00 - 0
Quad 32 - 32 - 3
Quad 418 - 720 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 243   @ Harvard L 66-79 42%     0 - 1 -14.6 -1.7 -13.8
  Nov 09, 2024 216   @ Richmond W 79-72 36%     1 - 1 +7.1 +8.9 -1.5
  Nov 15, 2024 312   Army W 91-88 OT 77%     2 - 1 -8.5 +12.1 -20.6
  Nov 19, 2024 280   Dartmouth W 75-62 71%     3 - 1 +3.6 -2.5 +5.9
  Nov 23, 2024 355   New Hampshire W 54-49 87%     4 - 1 -10.9 -18.5 +8.2
  Nov 30, 2024 246   @ Lehigh L 69-74 42%     4 - 2 -6.8 +0.8 -8.1
  Dec 06, 2024 234   Mount St. Mary's W 53-50 63%     5 - 2 1 - 0 -4.0 -17.0 +13.2
  Dec 08, 2024 279   @ Manhattan W 82-75 49%     6 - 2 2 - 0 +3.6 +8.0 -4.1
  Dec 17, 2024 306   @ Stony Brook W 68-66 55%     7 - 2 -3.0 +6.4 -8.9
  Dec 21, 2024 245   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 76-73 OT 65%     8 - 2 -4.6 -6.0 +1.2
  Dec 29, 2024 302   Binghamton W 68-61 75%    
  Jan 03, 2025 247   @ Iona L 65-67 43%    
  Jan 05, 2025 249   Quinnipiac W 71-67 65%    
  Jan 12, 2025 297   Fairfield W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 16, 2025 206   @ St. Peter's L 58-63 34%    
  Jan 18, 2025 303   Rider W 68-61 75%    
  Jan 23, 2025 320   @ Niagara W 65-63 58%    
  Jan 25, 2025 353   @ Canisius W 70-64 71%    
  Jan 31, 2025 304   Siena W 66-59 74%    
  Feb 06, 2025 297   @ Fairfield W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 08, 2025 247   Iona W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 14, 2025 304   @ Siena W 63-62 54%    
  Feb 16, 2025 195   @ Merrimack L 60-65 33%    
  Feb 21, 2025 353   Canisius W 73-61 86%    
  Feb 23, 2025 320   Niagara W 68-60 77%    
  Feb 28, 2025 295   @ Sacred Heart W 69-68 52%    
  Mar 02, 2025 206   St. Peter's W 61-60 55%    
  Mar 06, 2025 195   Merrimack W 63-62 53%    
  Mar 08, 2025 234   @ Mount St. Mary's L 65-68 41%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 3.4 6.0 6.2 4.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 23.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.5 6.6 4.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.9 5.9 3.0 0.5 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.5 2.8 0.3 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 4.7 2.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.3 3.1 0.5 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 3.0 0.8 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.3 1.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.2 0.1 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.6 6.0 8.9 11.7 13.8 14.4 13.4 10.7 7.5 4.3 1.9 0.6 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 99.2% 1.8    1.8 0.0
17-3 95.9% 4.1    3.6 0.4 0.0
16-4 82.8% 6.2    4.6 1.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 56.3% 6.0    3.0 2.4 0.5 0.0 0.0
14-6 25.6% 3.4    0.9 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-7 5.5% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 23.1% 23.1 14.6 6.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 48.9% 48.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.6% 37.6% 37.6% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
18-2 1.9% 34.3% 34.3% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.2
17-3 4.3% 27.9% 27.9% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 3.1
16-4 7.5% 25.2% 25.2% 14.5 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.1 5.6
15-5 10.7% 20.5% 20.5% 14.9 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.3 8.5
14-6 13.4% 16.6% 16.6% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.7 11.2
13-7 14.4% 13.4% 13.4% 15.5 0.0 0.8 1.1 12.4
12-8 13.8% 9.4% 9.4% 15.7 0.0 0.4 0.9 12.5
11-9 11.7% 6.2% 6.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 11.0
10-10 8.9% 4.3% 4.3% 15.9 0.0 0.3 8.5
9-11 6.0% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.9
8-12 3.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 3.6
7-13 1.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
6-14 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.0% 13.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 5.4 4.3 87.0 0.0%