Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.6#211
Expected Predictive Rating+2.5#130
Pace62.4#330
Improvement+2.7#67

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#306
First Shot-2.6#250
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#312
Layup/Dunks-0.8#216
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#52
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#198
Freethrows-3.6#353
Improvement-3.4#336

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#109
First Shot+1.6#122
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#112
Layups/Dunks-0.3#174
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#183
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#116
Freethrows+0.0#188
Improvement+6.1#3
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.9% 19.9% 16.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 44.7% 52.8% 28.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.4% 2.0% 3.1%
First Round17.7% 19.0% 15.3%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Away) - 66.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 00 - 0
Quad 32 - 22 - 2
Quad 421 - 623 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 241   @ Harvard L 66-79 48%     0 - 1 -15.1 -2.2 -13.8
  Nov 09, 2024 220   @ Richmond W 79-72 43%     1 - 1 +6.2 +10.2 -3.7
  Nov 15, 2024 297   Army W 91-88 OT 76%     2 - 1 -6.9 +13.3 -20.2
  Nov 19, 2024 257   Dartmouth W 75-62 70%     3 - 1 +5.0 -2.0 +6.8
  Nov 23, 2024 357   New Hampshire W 54-49 89%     4 - 1 -11.3 -18.6 +7.9
  Nov 30, 2024 267   @ Lehigh L 69-74 53%     4 - 2 -8.5 +1.8 -10.7
  Dec 06, 2024 260   Mount St. Mary's W 53-50 70%     5 - 2 1 - 0 -5.1 -17.3 +12.5
  Dec 08, 2024 271   @ Manhattan W 82-75 54%     6 - 2 2 - 0 +3.3 +8.3 -4.8
  Dec 17, 2024 318   @ Stony Brook W 68-66 65%     7 - 2 -4.7 +5.0 -9.3
  Dec 21, 2024 261   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 76-73 OT 70%     8 - 2 -5.2 -7.4 +2.1
  Dec 29, 2024 313   Binghamton W 69-51 79%     9 - 2 +6.8 -5.0 +13.1
  Jan 03, 2025 256   @ Iona W 70-65 51%     10 - 2 3 - 0 +2.0 -3.8 +5.6
  Jan 05, 2025 187   Quinnipiac W 69-62 55%     11 - 2 4 - 0 +3.2 -6.2 +9.1
  Jan 12, 2025 326   Fairfield W 61-51 83%     12 - 2 5 - 0 -2.6 -9.1 +8.2
  Jan 16, 2025 272   @ St. Peter's W 56-51 54%     13 - 2 6 - 0 +1.3 -4.4 +6.6
  Jan 18, 2025 303   Rider L 57-64 77%     13 - 3 6 - 1 -17.5 -16.5 -1.6
  Jan 23, 2025 316   @ Niagara W 67-65 OT 65%     14 - 3 7 - 1 -4.6 -5.0 +0.5
  Jan 25, 2025 352   @ Canisius W 70-47 77%     15 - 3 8 - 1 +12.5 -0.4 +16.2
  Jan 31, 2025 246   Siena W 72-67 68%     16 - 3 9 - 1 -2.6 +3.0 -5.1
  Feb 06, 2025 326   @ Fairfield W 68-63 66%    
  Feb 08, 2025 256   Iona W 66-61 71%    
  Feb 14, 2025 246   @ Siena L 63-64 48%    
  Feb 16, 2025 198   @ Merrimack L 58-61 35%    
  Feb 21, 2025 352   Canisius W 73-60 89%    
  Feb 23, 2025 316   Niagara W 68-59 81%    
  Feb 28, 2025 288   @ Sacred Heart W 70-68 55%    
  Mar 02, 2025 272   St. Peter's W 61-55 73%    
  Mar 06, 2025 198   Merrimack W 61-59 58%    
  Mar 08, 2025 260   @ Mount St. Mary's W 65-64 50%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 6.2 14.9 14.6 7.0 1.3 44.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 6.8 12.9 6.7 0.8 28.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 7.2 9.2 4.0 0.3 22.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.0 0.1 3.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 0.2 1.0 3.8 9.5 16.9 23.1 21.9 15.4 7.0 1.3 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3
18-2 100.0% 7.0    6.5 0.4
17-3 94.8% 14.6    11.1 3.4 0.1
16-4 68.1% 14.9    7.1 6.7 1.2
15-5 26.8% 6.2    1.2 3.1 1.8 0.0
14-6 4.4% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 44.7% 44.7 27.2 14.0 3.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 1.3% 34.9% 34.9% 13.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8
18-2 7.0% 30.6% 30.6% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.0 4.8
17-3 15.4% 24.2% 24.2% 14.9 0.0 0.7 2.4 0.5 11.7
16-4 21.9% 21.2% 21.2% 15.3 0.3 2.7 1.7 17.3
15-5 23.1% 16.7% 16.7% 15.6 0.1 1.5 2.3 19.2
14-6 16.9% 14.4% 14.4% 15.8 0.5 1.9 14.4
13-7 9.5% 11.7% 11.7% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 8.4
12-8 3.8% 10.7% 10.7% 15.9 0.0 0.4 3.4
11-9 1.0% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 0.1 0.9
10-10 0.2% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 18.9% 18.9% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.4 2.2 8.4 7.8 81.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 13.4 4.5 56.8 31.8 6.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%