Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.1 #140
Expected Predictive Rating -0.8 #178
Pace 66.1 #260
Improvement -1.0 #242

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #290 D C C- F D+
Defense #47 B B- B+ D+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #256 1.11 #234 -2.6 #271
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #92 0.84 #76 +2.6 #61
Three Pointers 40% #211 0.84 #334 -4.1 #307
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #287 -4.0 #294
Freethrows 12.2 #354 76% #59 9.3 #338
Second Chance 26.9% #285 1.17 #59 0.31 #189
Turnovers 17.3% #226
Total Offense -4.4 #290

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #182 1.13 #140 +0.5 #162
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #59 0.67 #81 -0.7 #241
Three Pointers 36% #301 0.90 #59 +4.4 #36
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #61 +4.1 #60
Freethrows 20.0 #309 70% #68 13.9 #96
Second Chance 29.8% #139 0.96 #76 0.29 #99
Turnovers 19.6% #43
Total Defense +5.6 #47

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.5% #282 -1.1% #88
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.3% #276 -7.1% #65
Possession Length 17.8 #222 17.1 #164
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #268 0.11 #27
Improvement +1.5 #90 -2.5 #326

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.8% 31.8% 26.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 99.6% 99.8% 98.5%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.6% 97.2%
Conference Champion 41.8% 45.4% 23.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round30.8% 31.7% 25.9%
Second Round1.3% 1.5% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rider (Away) - 83.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 33 - 33 - 5
Quad 418 - 421 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 97 @Xavier L 62 - 66 25%  +3  0 - 1 +4 -4 +8
 Sun, Nov 9 230 @Dartmouth W 75 - 56 58%  +8  1 - 1 +18 -1 C C- F +18 A+ C A+
 Sun, Nov 16 196 Harvard L 54 - 56 73%  -1  1 - 2 -7 -15 F F F +8 A+ C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 330 Army W 76 - 65 91%  +4  2 - 2 -3 +0 C- C+ D+ -2 D+ A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 320 Lehigh W 78 - 55 90%  +13  3 - 2 +10 +3 B F A+ +8 A+ D+ F
 Fri, Dec 5 292 Mount St. Mary's W 64 - 56 86%  +2  4 - 2 1 - 0 -2 -13 D- C+ F +11 A+ B A+
 Sun, Dec 7 311 Manhattan W 80 - 68 89%  +3  5 - 2 2 - 0 -0 -7 F D C +6 B A+ B+
 Sat, Dec 13 317 @Bryant W 82 - 74 76%  +6  6 - 2 +2 +10 A+ D- F -8 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 16 114 @Georgia Tech L 76 - 87 30%  -8  6 - 3 -4 +11 B- A+ C+ -15 F F A
 Sun, Dec 21 276 Stony Brook W 70 - 51 84%  +13  7 - 3 +9 -2 F B- A+ +12 A+ A- B
 Mon, Dec 29 158 @Quinnipiac L 58 - 64 43%  -3  7 - 4 2 - 1 -3 -10 F C F +7 A+ D- A+
 Fri, Jan 2 259 @St. Peter's L 59 - 69 64%  -3  7 - 5 2 - 2 -13 -12 F F C+ -1 B+ F C+
 Sun, Jan 4 214 Iona W 83 - 38 75%  +21  8 - 5 3 - 2 +39 +8 D A+ A+ +31 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 9 285 @Sacred Heart W 76 - 72 69%  -2  9 - 5 4 - 2 +0 +7 C A B- -6 F F B-
 Sun, Jan 11 348 @Rider W 67 - 57 84% 
 Sat, Jan 17 282 Fairfield W 74 - 63 85% 
 Mon, Jan 19 237 Merrimack W 67 - 59 78% 
 Thu, Jan 22 190 @Siena W 65 - 64 50% 
 Sat, Jan 24 158 Quinnipiac W 71 - 67 66% 
 Fri, Jan 30 331 @Canisius W 67 - 58 79% 
 Sun, Feb 1 354 @Niagara W 69 - 57 85% 
 Thu, Feb 5 348 Rider W 70 - 54 94% 
 Sat, Feb 7 282 @Fairfield W 71 - 66 68% 
 Thu, Feb 12 237 @Merrimack W 64 - 62 58% 
 Sun, Feb 15 190 Siena W 68 - 62 72% 
 Fri, Feb 20 311 @Manhattan W 74 - 67 74% 
 Sun, Feb 22 285 Sacred Heart W 76 - 65 85% 
 Sun, Mar 1 259 St. Peter's W 68 - 58 81% 
Totals 20 - 8 15 - 5 +1 -4 D C C- +6 B B- B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.7 9.8 14.8 10.5 3.7 41.8 1st
2nd 0.2 2.3 9.0 10.0 4.1 0.5 26.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.8 5.7 1.6 0.1 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.8 1.2 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.3 1.5 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 3.7 7.5 12.8 18.6 21.4 19.0 11.0 3.7 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 3.7    3.7 0.1
17-3 95.9% 10.5    9.1 1.4 0.0
16-4 78.1% 14.8    9.5 4.9 0.4 0.0
15-5 45.9% 9.8    3.9 4.2 1.6 0.2
14-6 14.3% 2.7    0.4 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0
13-7 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 41.8% 41.8 26.5 11.7 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 3.7% 51.1% 51.1% 12.3 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.0 1.8
17-3 11.0% 44.3% 44.3% 13.4 0.4 2.4 1.8 0.2 6.1
16-4 19.0% 37.7% 37.7% 13.9 0.1 1.9 3.9 1.2 0.0 11.8
15-5 21.4% 33.0% 33.0% 14.2 0.0 0.8 3.7 2.4 0.1 14.3
14-6 18.6% 27.7% 27.7% 14.6 0.2 2.1 2.6 0.3 13.5
13-7 12.8% 21.0% 21.0% 14.9 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.5 10.1
12-8 7.5% 18.2% 18.2% 15.2 0.1 0.8 0.5 6.1
11-9 3.7% 12.9% 12.9% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.2
10-10 1.6% 9.5% 9.5% 15.7 0.1 0.1 1.4
9-11 0.5% 4.7% 4.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.5
8-12 0.2% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 30.8% 30.8% 0.0% 14.1 69.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 12.3 8.4 59.2 30.4 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%