Mercer
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.3 #160
Expected Predictive Rating +0.6 #159
Pace 73.8 #65
Improvement +0.7 #143

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #145 C C B- C- D-
Defense #205 C- C+ C+ C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #324 1.22 #112 -2.5 #269
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #71 0.74 #190 +2.2 #73
Three Pointers 41% #179 1.06 #118 +1.1 #140
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #159 +0.7 #157
Freethrows 15.4 #285 75% #103 11.5 #247
Second Chance 31.5% #154 1.07 #157 0.34 #144
Turnovers 15.3% #95
Total Offense +0.7 #145

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #136 1.05 #63 +1.1 #137
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #106 0.88 #332 -2.3 #332
Three Pointers 37% #281 1.13 #325 -0.3 #193
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #229 -1.5 #229
Freethrows 16.2 #131 73% #182 11.8 #228
Second Chance 33.5% #286 0.89 #26 0.30 #125
Turnovers 17.7% #115
Total Defense -1.0 #205

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.4% #316 -0.3% #143
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.8% #127 3.2% #241
Possession Length 16.8 #134 16.8 #104
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #100 0.21 #299
Improvement -0.9 #247 +1.6 #80

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.1% 20.8% 15.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 87.5% 92.0% 76.4%
.500 or above in Conference 90.3% 94.2% 80.8%
Conference Champion 14.6% 18.4% 5.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.7%
First Round19.0% 20.7% 14.7%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Home) - 71.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 33 - 53 - 9
Quad 414 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 16 @Tennessee L 61 - 76 4%  -11  0 - 1 +6 -1 F D A+ +6 A- C- A+
 Sun, Nov 9 177 Lipscomb W 92 - 77 65%  +8  1 - 1 +11 +19 A+ A+ A+ -8 D+ F C
 Sat, Nov 15 152 @Winthrop L 69 - 105 37%  -16  1 - 2 -33 -15 F F F -13 F D+ D+
 Sat, Nov 22 254 @Eastern Kentucky W 95 - 83 58%  +11  2 - 2 +10 +16 A+ A- F -7 C- C- D+
 Wed, Nov 26 224 Appalachian St. W 75 - 67 72%  -3  3 - 2 +2 +11 D+ A+ C -8 C+ D- F
 Sat, Nov 29 163 @Elon W 91 - 84 39%  +1  4 - 2 +9 +8 C F A+ +1 A+ A- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 304 Georgia St. W 78 - 67 84%  +5  5 - 2 +0 +0 D- C+ C -1 F A+ B
 Sat, Dec 13 39 @Clemson L 63 - 70 7%  +0  5 - 3 +9 +6 A+ F A- +3 C- A+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 50 @Central Florida L 63 - 81 10%  -10  5 - 4 -4 -6 F C F +2 B+ A- B-
 Sat, Dec 20 145 @Washington St. L 78 - 84 34%  -4  5 - 5 -2 +2 C C- B- -4 F A+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 150 @Furman L 72 - 74 36%  -3  5 - 6 0 - 1 +1 +3 D- B+ A -2 D B D
 Sat, Jan 3 128 @East Tennessee St. L 71 - 77 31%  -1  5 - 7 0 - 2 -1 +3 C D- B- -5 A+ F B-
 Wed, Jan 7 360 The Citadel W 101 - 63 94%  +21  6 - 7 1 - 2 +20 +23 A+ A+ F -1 D- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 223 Wofford W 82 - 76 71% 
 Thu, Jan 15 332 @VMI W 82 - 75 76% 
 Sat, Jan 17 284 @UNC Greensboro W 81 - 77 63% 
 Wed, Jan 21 283 Western Carolina W 85 - 75 81% 
 Sat, Jan 24 223 @Wofford L 78 - 79 50% 
 Thu, Jan 29 284 UNC Greensboro W 84 - 74 81% 
 Sat, Jan 31 332 VMI W 85 - 72 89% 
 Thu, Feb 5 273 @Chattanooga W 78 - 75 61% 
 Sat, Feb 7 229 @Samford W 78 - 77 52% 
 Wed, Feb 11 150 Furman W 77 - 75 59% 
 Sat, Feb 14 360 @The Citadel W 82 - 70 87% 
 Thu, Feb 19 273 Chattanooga W 81 - 72 80% 
 Sat, Feb 21 229 Samford W 81 - 74 73% 
 Wed, Feb 25 283 @Western Carolina W 82 - 78 62% 
 Sat, Feb 28 128 East Tennessee St. W 76 - 75 53% 
Totals 16 - 12 11 - 7 +0 +1 C C B- -1 C- C+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.4 5.7 3.6 1.2 14.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 6.9 9.4 4.6 0.9 0.0 23.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 8.0 8.8 3.2 0.3 0.0 22.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 6.5 6.7 1.7 0.1 16.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 4.0 4.6 1.0 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.7 0.6 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.7 5.3 8.9 13.6 17.4 18.1 16.1 10.6 4.5 1.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 98.3% 1.2    1.0 0.1
15-3 80.2% 3.6    2.6 1.0 0.1
14-4 54.1% 5.7    2.7 2.5 0.5 0.0
13-5 21.2% 3.4    0.7 1.7 0.9 0.1
12-6 3.7% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.6% 14.6 7.0 5.5 1.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.2% 43.7% 43.7% 12.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7
15-3 4.5% 34.3% 34.3% 13.2 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 3.0
14-4 10.6% 32.3% 32.3% 13.6 0.1 1.3 1.7 0.3 7.1
13-5 16.1% 25.3% 25.3% 14.0 0.0 0.8 2.4 0.9 0.0 12.0
12-6 18.1% 20.4% 20.4% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.4 0.0 14.4
11-7 17.4% 16.2% 16.2% 14.6 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.2 14.5
10-8 13.6% 11.8% 11.8% 15.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.3 12.0
9-9 8.9% 9.5% 9.5% 15.3 0.0 0.5 0.3 8.0
8-10 5.3% 7.3% 7.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 4.9
7-11 2.7% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 2.5
6-12 1.3% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 1.3
5-13 0.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.1% 19.1% 0.0% 14.2 80.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 12.1 19.2 55.8 24.0 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%