Mercer
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.7 #148
Expected Predictive Rating +1.5 #141
Pace 74.9 #38
Improvement -0.5 #213

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #104 C+ C+ C+ C+ C-
Defense #244 D+ C C B C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #257 1.24 #88 -0.1 #179
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #152 0.75 #183 +0.4 #159
Three Pointers 42% #151 1.02 #180 +0.9 #143
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #139 +1.2 #139
Freethrows 0.32 #131 75% #101 0.24 #108
Second Chance 34.0% #86 1.04 #157 0.35 #92
Turnovers 16.0% #133
Total Offense +2.6 #104

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #138 1.10 #98 +0.3 #168
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #195 0.84 #302 -0.6 #233
Three Pointers 40% #223 1.17 #347 -2.5 #290
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #275 -2.8 #275
Freethrows 0.24 #33 74% #265 0.18 #41
Second Chance 33.1% #286 0.96 #86 0.32 #186
Turnovers 17.3% #146
Total Defense -2.0 #244

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #239 0.4% #203
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.9% #125 5.0% #274
Possession Length 16.6 #106 16.6 #82
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #64 0.21 #296
Improvement +0.2 #164 -0.6 #223

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.0% 25.7% 21.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 98.9% 99.8% 97.2%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 100.0% 98.8%
Conference Champion 28.4% 35.7% 14.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round24.0% 25.7% 21.0%
Second Round0.9% 1.1% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Away) - 64.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 33 - 33 - 9
Quad 416 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 18 @Tennessee L 61 - 76 4% -11  0 - 1 +6 -1 F+ D+ A+ +7 B+ D- A+
 Sun, Nov 9 178 Lipscomb W 92 - 77 68% +8  1 - 1 +11 +19 A+ A+ A+ -8 C- D- C
 Sat, Nov 15 123 @Winthrop L 69 - 105 33% -16  1 - 2 -31 -12 F+ D+ F -14 F D+ C-
 Sat, Nov 22 265 @Eastern Kentucky W 95 - 83 64% +11  2 - 2 +9 +16 A+ B+ F -7 C C- D+
 Wed, Nov 26 172 Appalachian St. W 75 - 67 67% -3  3 - 2 +4 +12 C- A+ C -7 B- D- D-
 Sat, Nov 29 192 @Elon W 91 - 84 50% +1  4 - 2 +8 +7 C+ D- A -0 B B A+
 Tue, Dec 2 268 Georgia St. W 78 - 67 82% +5  5 - 2 +2 +1 D- B- C+ +1 F+ A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 33 @Clemson L 63 - 70 7% +0  5 - 3 +10 +7 A- D- A +2 C A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 17 44 @Central Florida L 63 - 81 10% -10  5 - 4 -3 -6 F+ C+ F +3 B+ B+ C+
 Sat, Dec 20 122 @Washington St. L 78 - 84 32% -4  5 - 5 -0 +0 C C- B- -1 F A+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 164 @Furman L 72 - 74 42% -3  5 - 6 0 - 1 +1 +3 D- B A -3 D B D-
 Sat, Jan 3 131 @East Tennessee St. L 71 - 77 34% -1  5 - 7 0 - 2 -1 +3 C D- C+ -4 A- F B
 Wed, Jan 7 344 The Citadel W 101 - 63 92% +21  6 - 7 1 - 2 +23 +27 A+ A+ D -2 D- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 200 Wofford W 109 - 97 73% +7  7 - 7 2 - 2 +6 +22 A+ A+ D+ -16 F F C+
 Thu, Jan 15 356 @VMI W 77 - 67 87% +2  8 - 7 3 - 2 -1 +2 F A+ F+ -2 F A C+
 Sat, Jan 17 312 @UNC Greensboro W 102 - 92 74% +12  9 - 7 4 - 2 +4 +19 A+ A+ F -15 F B+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 277 Western Carolina W 88 - 76 83% +14  10 - 7 5 - 2 +3 +8 F+ A+ A -6 C F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 200 @Wofford L 77 - 80 51% -1  10 - 8 5 - 3 -3 +2 C F C+ -5 D F C
 Thu, Jan 29 312 UNC Greensboro W 95 - 77 88% +14  11 - 8 6 - 3 +6 +10 C A+ C -5 B- D- D
 Sat, Jan 31 356 VMI W 95 - 81 94% +4  12 - 8 7 - 3 -3 +9 D+ B+ B+ -12 F B- D+
 Thu, Feb 5 275 @Chattanooga W 80 - 76 65%
 Sat, Feb 7 228 @Samford W 82 - 81 55%
 Wed, Feb 11 164 Furman W 80 - 76 65%
 Sat, Feb 14 344 @The Citadel W 80 - 71 81%
 Thu, Feb 19 275 Chattanooga W 83 - 73 83%
 Sat, Feb 21 228 Samford W 85 - 78 76%
 Wed, Feb 25 277 @Western Carolina W 86 - 82 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 131 East Tennessee St. W 79 - 77 56%
Totals 17 - 11 12 - 6 +1 +3 C+ C+ C+ -2 D+ C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.7 7.7 13.8 6.1 28.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 9.7 16.7 4.5 32.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 7.3 12.1 2.4 0.0 22.7 3rd
4th 0.5 4.5 6.4 1.7 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 1.3 0.1 2.6 5th
6th 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 2.1 6.8 15.1 24.3 26.9 18.3 6.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 6.1    5.2 0.9
14-4 75.3% 13.8    5.9 7.0 0.9
13-5 28.7% 7.7    1.1 3.6 2.6 0.4
12-6 3.0% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.4% 28.4 12.2 11.7 3.8 0.7 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 6.1% 35.2% 35.2% 12.8 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.2 4.0
14-4 18.3% 31.3% 31.3% 13.6 0.2 2.4 2.9 0.3 12.6
13-5 26.9% 26.8% 26.8% 13.8 0.1 1.9 4.2 0.9 0.0 19.7
12-6 24.3% 22.0% 22.0% 14.1 0.0 0.7 3.2 1.4 0.0 18.9
11-7 15.1% 16.5% 16.5% 14.4 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.1 0.1 12.6
10-8 6.8% 12.0% 12.0% 14.8 0.2 0.5 0.1 5.9
9-9 2.1% 10.7% 10.7% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.8
8-10 0.4% 14.5% 14.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
7-11 0.1% 0.0 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.0% 24.0% 0.0% 13.8 76.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.2% 100.0% 12.8 0.2 32.9 57.6 9.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7%