Mercer
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.4#222
Expected Predictive Rating-3.9#226
Pace75.9#31
Improvement+1.8#99

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#239
First Shot-1.5#224
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#255
Layup/Dunks+2.3#98
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#292
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#218
Freethrows-0.5#212
Improvement-0.8#229

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#199
First Shot-1.1#210
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#155
Layups/Dunks+0.3#156
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#275
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#184
Freethrows-0.8#249
Improvement+2.6#48
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 5.0% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 18.2% 42.6% 13.6%
.500 or above in Conference 35.6% 65.4% 30.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 0.8% 1.0%
First Round2.8% 4.6% 2.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Samford (Away) - 15.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 34 - 104 - 14
Quad 410 - 314 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2024 112   @ DePaul L 64-95 19%     0 - 1 -25.3 -12.3 -10.4
  Nov 16, 2024 156   @ South Alabama L 66-75 27%     0 - 2 -6.0 -2.1 -4.0
  Nov 21, 2024 79   @ South Carolina L 72-84 11%     0 - 3 -2.2 +7.4 -9.8
  Nov 25, 2024 179   Jacksonville W 90-89 OT 41%     1 - 3 +0.1 +8.9 -9.0
  Nov 26, 2024 173   Miami (OH) L 72-75 39%     1 - 4 -3.4 -6.0 +2.8
  Dec 04, 2024 345   West Georgia W 86-72 85%     2 - 4 -0.3 +11.6 -11.0
  Dec 08, 2024 334   @ Stetson W 89-83 OT 70%     3 - 4 -2.7 -0.8 -2.6
  Dec 15, 2024 359   Chicago St. W 75-63 89%     4 - 4 -4.7 -1.9 -2.7
  Dec 18, 2024 213   @ Queens L 66-73 39%     4 - 5 -7.4 -14.0 +7.3
  Dec 21, 2024 205   @ Winthrop L 97-102 36%     4 - 6 -4.7 +4.2 -7.9
  Dec 28, 2024 278   @ Georgia St. W 71-68 52%     5 - 6 -1.0 -6.4 +5.4
  Jan 01, 2025 138   Chattanooga W 99-94 OT 41%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +3.9 +6.4 -3.4
  Jan 04, 2025 304   @ VMI W 70-67 58%     7 - 6 2 - 0 -2.6 -10.8 +8.0
  Jan 08, 2025 153   East Tennessee St. L 68-70 44%     7 - 7 2 - 1 -3.8 -3.7 -0.1
  Jan 12, 2025 350   @ Western Carolina L 82-85 75%     7 - 8 2 - 2 -13.3 +0.2 -13.3
  Jan 15, 2025 109   Samford L 74-75 32%     7 - 9 2 - 3 +0.4 -3.0 +3.4
  Jan 18, 2025 151   @ Wofford L 49-69 26%     7 - 10 2 - 4 -16.7 -20.8 +2.5
  Jan 22, 2025 159   @ UNC Greensboro W 79-78 27%     8 - 10 3 - 4 +3.9 +4.0 -0.1
  Jan 25, 2025 165   Furman L 74-79 46%     8 - 11 3 - 5 -7.3 +3.0 -10.6
  Jan 29, 2025 358   The Citadel W 80-46 89%     9 - 11 4 - 5 +17.4 +1.3 +16.5
  Feb 01, 2025 138   @ Chattanooga L 84-93 25%     9 - 12 4 - 6 -5.2 +4.6 -9.1
  Feb 05, 2025 109   @ Samford L 75-85 16%    
  Feb 08, 2025 151   Wofford L 73-75 45%    
  Feb 12, 2025 165   @ Furman L 71-77 27%    
  Feb 15, 2025 304   VMI W 79-72 77%    
  Feb 19, 2025 358   @ The Citadel W 75-67 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 159   UNC Greensboro L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 26, 2025 153   @ East Tennessee St. L 70-77 26%    
  Mar 01, 2025 350   Western Carolina W 82-70 88%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.2 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.9 0.1 1.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 1.2 3.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 4.9 0.4 7.8 5th
6th 0.1 3.6 10.8 3.0 0.0 17.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 12.1 22.5 9.2 0.3 45.6 7th
8th 0.2 1.9 7.7 10.5 3.9 0.2 24.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.3 2.0 9.3 22.7 30.1 22.6 10.1 2.6 0.3 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 35.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.3% 7.1% 7.1% 13.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 2.6% 8.9% 8.9% 14.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.4
10-8 10.1% 5.5% 5.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 9.6
9-9 22.6% 4.6% 4.6% 15.4 0.0 0.6 0.4 21.6
8-10 30.1% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.1 0.8 29.2
7-11 22.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 22.4
6-12 9.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 9.2
5-13 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.0
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.9 96.7 0.0%