Mercer
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.1 178
Results Rating -0.9 175
Pace 72.9 69
Improvement -2.5 279

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 125 C C+ C B- C-
Defense D+ 253 D+ C- C+ B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 235 C+ 60% 114 -0.4 194
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 139 D+ 35% 264 +0.0 181
Three Pointers 41% 167 C+ 35% 144 +0.6 157
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.3 231 C +0.5 155
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 169
Second Chance B- 32.9% 101 C- 1.00 215 C+ 0.33 130
Turnovers C 16.5% 160
Freethrows B- 0.34 77 C+ 74% 148 B- 0.25 79
Total Offense C+ +1.5 125

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 49% 169 C 11.3% 195
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 10% 358 B- 4.0% 103
Three Pointers D 79% 293 D+ 1.3% 290
Total D+ 52% 270 C 5.5% 186

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 136 B- 55% 98 -0.2 171
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 169 D+ 41% 295 +0.8 256
Three Pointers 39% 242 F+ 39% 360 +2.2 286
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 181 D+ +2.6 283
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 268
Second Chance D+ 32.9% 287 C+ 0.99 111 C- 0.32 221
Turnovers C+ 17.4% 140
Freethrows B 0.26 46 D- 76% 337 B- 0.20 77
Total Defense D+ -2.6 253

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 40% 30 C 10.6% 187
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 164 D+ 3.6% 253
Three Pointers C 84% 180 A- 2.1% 25
Total B- 51% 95 C 5.8% 158

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.7 107 17.0 135
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 50 0.20 276
Improvement -1.2 #248 -1.3 #262

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 203 177 150
Results Rating Rank 224 176 119
Conference Record 10 - 8 11 - 7 12 - 6
Conference Finish 5 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17% 20% 14%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.2 14.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round17% 20% 14%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Away) - 52.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 42 - 10
Quad 415 - 317 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 15 @Tennessee L 61 - 76 3% -11  7% 0 - 1 B- +7 D+ -3 F D+ A+ A +10 B+ D A+
 Sun, Nov 9 188 Lipscomb W 92 - 77 64% +8  95% 1 - 1 B +10 A+ +17 A A+ A+ D -6 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 15 135 @Winthrop L 69 - 105 29% -16  5% 1 - 2 F -31 F -15 F D+ F F -12 F D+ D+
 Sat, Nov 22 279 @Eastern Kentucky W 95 - 83 60% +11  93% 2 - 2 B +8 A +13 A+ B+ F+ D+ -5 C D+ D+
 Wed, Nov 26 173 Appalachian St. W 75 - 67 60% -3  21% 3 - 2 C+ +4 B+ +9 C- A+ C- D+ -3 B- D- D-
 Sat, Nov 29 227 @Elon W 91 - 84 49% +1  46% 4 - 2 B- +6 C+ +3 C+ F+ A- B- +2 B- B+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 289 Georgia St. W 78 - 67 81% +5  75% 5 - 2 C +0 C- -2 F+ B- B- B- +2 F A B
 Sat, Dec 13 41 @Clemson L 63 - 70 7% +0  52% 5 - 3 B +9 B- +4 A- D- A B +4 C- A+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 51 @Central Florida L 63 - 81 9% -10  0% 5 - 4 C- -4 F+ -10 F C+ F B+ +6 B+ B B-
 Sat, Dec 20 126 @Washington St. L 78 - 84 26% -4  13% 5 - 5 C -0 D+ -3 C- C- B- B- +3 F A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 175 @Furman L 72 - 74 38% -3  12% 5 - 6 0 - 1 C +0 C +2 F+ A- A- C- -2 D- B D
 Sat, Jan 3 131 @East Tennessee St. L 71 - 77 28% -1  36% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C -1 C +1 C+ F+ C C- -3 A F B-
 Wed, Jan 7 348 The Citadel W 101 - 63 91% +21  99% 6 - 7 1 - 2 A +22 A+ +25 A+ A+ D+ C -0 F+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 238 Wofford W 109 - 97 72% +7  96% 7 - 7 2 - 2 C+ +5 A+ +18 A+ A+ D+ F -14 F+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 15 358 @VMI W 77 - 67 87% +2  68% 8 - 7 3 - 2 C- -3 C- -2 F A+ F C -1 F A B-
 Sat, Jan 17 301 @UNC Greensboro W 102 - 92 66% +12  98% 9 - 7 4 - 2 C+ +5 A+ +15 A+ A+ F F -11 F B+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 247 Western Carolina W 88 - 76 74% +14  98% 10 - 7 5 - 2 C+ +4 B +7 D- A+ A C- -3 C D- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 238 @Wofford L 77 - 80 51% -1  34% 10 - 8 5 - 3 C- -4 C- -1 C- F C+ C- -3 D+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 29 301 UNC Greensboro W 95 - 77 83% +14  86% 11 - 8 6 - 3 B- +7 B +7 C- A B- C -1 B+ F+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 358 VMI W 95 - 81 94% +4  78% 12 - 8 7 - 3 D+ -5 B- +5 D A- B F -11 F C+ D+
 Thu, Feb 5 274 @Chattanooga L 75 - 79 59% +1  52% 12 - 9 7 - 4 D+ -7 D -5 F D C C- -2 F A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 190 @Samford L 49 - 69 42% -15  2% 12 - 10 7 - 5 F -19 F -24 F F C- B +4 C- B B-
 Wed, Feb 11 175 Furman W 69 - 64 61% -2  23% 13 - 10 8 - 5 C +1 D+ -4 F C- A- B +5 A C F
 Sat, Feb 14 348 @The Citadel W 70 - 54 80% -1  28% 14 - 10 9 - 5 B- +6 C- -1 B- F+ F A +9 A+ F B+
 Thu, Feb 19 274 Chattanooga L 90 - 94 78% -2  20% 14 - 11 9 - 6 D- -13 A+ +16 A+ C- A F -30 F F D-
 Sat, Feb 21 190 Samford W 89 - 86 64% +2  70% 15 - 11 10 - 6 C- -2 B+ +9 A+ D+ F F -11 C- D+ F
 Wed, Feb 25 247 @Western Carolina W 83 - 82 53%
 Sat, Feb 28 131 East Tennessee St. L 77 - 78 50%
Totals 16 - 12 11 - 7 -1 C+ +2 C+ C C- D+ -3 C+ C+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C+ D+ C+ C 37% 41% 41% C- C B- C- C+ C B- C+ B- D+ B- D+ F+ D+ 40% 21% 39% C D+ D+ C+ C- C+ B D- B-
1.11 60% 35% 35% 0 0 1.02 33% 1.0 .33 16% .34 74% .25 1.12 55% 41% 39% +3 0 1.08 33% 1.0 .32 17% .26 76% .26
Nov
3		 Tennessee D+ F+ F F F 31% 25% 44% D+ F C+ F D+ A+ B A- B+ A A+ F F A- 52% 20% 28% D+ B+ C+ D- D A+ A A+ A+
0.87 44% 27% 23% -14 -1 0.71 25% 0.7 .18 7% .32 71% .23 1.08 42% 50% 43% -2 +1 1.00 46% 1.2 .54 27% .29 60% .18
Nov
9		 Lipscomb A+ A+ F A+ A 43% 22% 34% B- A B A+ A+ A+ F+ C- F+ D C+ A+ D C 42% 9% 49% D+ C F D+ F C- A+ F A
1.34 76% 23% 45% +10 0 1.22 37% 1.4 .50 12% .21 69% .15 1.12 57% 20% 37% 0 +2 1.05 33% 1.1 .36 16% .12 86% .10
Nov
15		 Winthrop F C A+ F F+ 27% 29% 43% F F F A+ D+ F A F C+ F D+ F F F 42% 19% 39% B- F C- D D+ D+ F B F
0.85 57% 53% 18% -6 -2 0.86 19% 1.4 .27 23% .42 62% .26 1.30 58% 45% 45% +8 0 1.19 34% 1.2 .39 14% .53 70% .37
Nov
22		 Eastern Kentucky A A D+ A+ A+ 30% 30% 40% F+ A+ A+ D+ B+ F+ D+ B C D+ A+ D+ F D 19% 42% 39% A+ C F A- D+ D+ C+ F C-
1.33 73% 40% 65% +24 -2 1.46 47% 0.9 .43 20% .31 78% .24 1.16 27% 42% 45% +2 -4 0.98 41% 0.9 .39 15% .25 80% .20
Nov
26		 Appalachian St. B+ F C- A C+ 17% 30% 53% F C- A A A+ C- A A+ A+ D+ F C A+ C+ 38% 28% 34% A- B- D- C- D- D- A A+ A
1.21 25% 36% 40% -2 -3 0.94 41% 1.1 .46 14% .36 84% .30 1.08 79% 36% 12% -4 -1 0.92 35% 1.1 .38 13% .24 54% .13
Nov
29		 Elon C+ C+ F A C+ 31% 17% 52% C C+ F B+ F+ A- A+ B+ A+ B- C- A+ C+ B 49% 7% 44% D B- F A+ B+ A+ F D+ F
1.18 59% 22% 43% +4 0 1.11 22% 1.3 .27 12% .44 77% .34 1.09 59% 0% 33% -3 +2 1.02 45% 0.6 .26 23% .44 73% .32
Dec
2		 Georgia St. C- B- F+ F F+ 33% 20% 47% D+ F+ C+ B B- B- A+ B+ A+ B- C F C F 28% 30% 42% C F B A+ A B B- A+ A-
1.10 63% 30% 26% -6 0 0.90 35% 1.1 .38 15% .50 77% .38 0.94 53% 50% 32% +1 -2 1.00 24% 0.7 .16 20% .26 67% .17
Dec
13		 Clemson B- A+ A+ F+ A 27% 31% 42% D A- F A+ D- A F F F B F+ F B- C- 40% 10% 50% C- C- B A+ A+ C B+ C- B
0.99 71% 50% 27% +3 -2 1.04 10% 1.3 .13 14% .18 50% .09 1.10 70% 60% 32% +5 +1 1.16 26% 0.3 .06 14% .29 75% .22
Dec
17		 Central Florida F+ D+ F D- F 33% 29% 38% D F C B- C+ F A+ B- A+ B+ B+ D C B+ 39% 30% 31% B+ B+ D A+ B B- C C C
0.88 53% 23% 29% -9 -1 0.82 25% 1.1 .28 24% .44 75% .33 1.13 52% 44% 35% 0 -1 1.00 40% 0.9 .38 17% .28 76% .22
Dec
20		 Washington St. D+ C+ A+ F C 28% 33% 39% F+ C- B F C- B- F+ F F B- C F F F 37% 20% 43% C+ F A+ A+ A+ C- D A C
1.04 59% 55% 25% 0 -2 0.98 31% 0.9 .27 13% .22 50% .11 1.12 63% 60% 50% +17 0 1.35 17% 0.4 .07 17% .32 65% .21
Dec
31		 Furman C F C D+ D- 32% 35% 33% F F+ B- A A- A- F A- F+ C- B- C F D- 45% 14% 41% D+ D- F A+ B D F A D
1.07 39% 40% 32% -7 -2 0.84 33% 1.2 .40 10% .15 78% .12 1.10 57% 43% 43% +5 +1 1.16 36% 0.6 .22 16% .39 59% .23
Jan
3		 East Tennessee St. C A F+ D+ C+ 38% 13% 48% C+ C+ C+ F F+ C C+ D C C- A+ F A A+ 58% 7% 35% F A F C F B- F F F
1.06 70% 29% 32% +2 +1 1.08 31% 0.5 .17 19% .32 71% .22 1.15 44% 67% 27% -10 +3 0.88 44% 1.1 .50 18% .49 85% .42
Jan
7		 The Citadel A+ C+ A A+ A+ 35% 12% 53% C A+ A+ A A+ D+ A A+ A+ C A F F F+ 34% 10% 56% F+ F+ D- F F A+ C+ F C-
1.54 65% 50% 54% +20 +1 1.43 48% 1.3 .60 17% .37 90% .33 0.96 43% 50% 39% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.2 .39 27% .25 75% .19
Jan
10		 Wofford A+ A+ F A+ A+ 54% 10% 35% B+ A+ C A+ A+ D+ A+ A A+ F A+ C- F F 41% 8% 51% D F+ D- F F C+ C- F+ D+
1.42 73% 20% 59% +19 +2 1.46 30% 1.7 .52 17% .49 87% .42 1.27 38% 40% 50% +4 +2 1.14 33% 1.2 .40 16% .34 77% .26
Jan
15		 VMI C- A- D+ F F 47% 11% 42% A- F A+ C A+ F A+ B- A+ C D+ B- F F 23% 17% 60% B+ F D A+ A B- A+ D A+
1.16 71% 40% 11% -8 +2 0.89 59% 1.0 .62 21% .46 75% .35 1.01 58% 33% 41% +5 -1 1.11 28% 0.5 .13 18% .07 75% .06
Jan
17		 UNC Greensboro A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 40% 19% 42% C+ A+ A+ B- A+ F A+ C+ A+ F D- D+ F F 40% 18% 42% F+ F B B+ B+ F C+ D- C
1.38 76% 38% 56% +21 0 1.44 44% 1.2 .52 20% .70 73% .51 1.25 65% 40% 42% +8 +1 1.19 24% 0.9 .21 9% .34 74% .25
Jan
21		 Western Carolina B B- A+ F F 44% 11% 44% A- D- A+ C- A+ A A+ D A C- B C- C+ B- 42% 10% 48% F C F C D- A+ C D+ C
1.26 63% 67% 21% -4 +2 0.98 47% 1.0 .47 10% .45 71% .32 1.09 50% 40% 32% -5 +2 0.96 41% 1.0 .41 23% .28 73% .20
Jan
24		 Wofford C- C B- D+ D+ 43% 13% 44% C+ C- D F F C+ A- A A+ C- B+ C+ F D 52% 21% 27% C D+ F F F C+ A- F B
1.10 57% 43% 33% 0 +1 1.04 25% 0.2 .06 14% .37 86% .32 1.15 48% 36% 50% +1 +1 1.06 37% 1.2 .43 16% .26 80% .20
Jan
29		 UNC Greensboro B C F B C- 26% 12% 62% C+ C- B A+ A B- A- C B+ C C A+ A- A- 38% 18% 45% D- B+ D- D- F+ D- A D+ B+
1.31 60% 29% 39% +4 0 1.10 36% 1.4 .49 12% .33 71% .24 1.06 57% 20% 28% -8 0 0.88 32% 1.1 .36 12% .28 72% .20
Jan
31		 VMI B- C+ A+ F D- 38% 9% 53% B+ D B A- A- B A+ B- A+ F D+ B- D- F 25% 5% 69% D F B+ D C+ D+ B- F C-
1.31 65% 80% 29% +2 +1 1.09 43% 1.2 .51 14% .46 76% .35 1.11 57% 33% 37% +2 +1 1.09 21% 1.0 .21 15% .26 81% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Chattanooga D D- F D F 37% 26% 37% D F A F D C A+ B+ A+ C- F A+ F F 36% 18% 47% D+ F A- A+ A+ A+ F C F
1.04 50% 18% 31% -10 -1 0.81 42% 0.8 .32 14% .69 77% .53 1.09 81% 25% 48% +15 0 1.33 14% 0.7 .10 24% .45 76% .34
Feb
7		 Samford F F F F F 33% 40% 27% F+ F D F F C- C+ C+ C+ B B- F C+ D+ 34% 26% 40% B- C- A+ F B B- C F+ D+
0.74 35% 29% 21% -16 -3 0.63 22% 0.4 .09 14% .30 76% .23 1.05 56% 50% 32% +1 -1 1.02 13% 1.5 .20 15% .36 75% .27
Feb
11		 Furman D+ F B- D- F 53% 14% 33% A F B- F C- A- A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ C A+ 35% 9% 56% C- A B D- C F B+ A- A-
1.04 37% 43% 29% -13 +2 0.80 34% 0.8 .27 11% .35 86% .30 0.96 42% 20% 32% -9 +1 0.87 25% 1.1 .28 14% .23 62% .14
Feb
14		 The Citadel C- C- F A+ B 42% 19% 40% C- B- D- F+ F+ F A F B- A A+ F A+ A+ 29% 24% 47% B+ A+ C- F F B+ C+ F D-
1.14 61% 25% 53% +10 +1 1.23 26% 0.9 .22 19% .36 61% .22 0.88 23% 45% 24% -15 -1 0.69 29% 1.4 .40 21% .25 92% .23
Feb
19		 Chattanooga A+ B A- A+ A+ 35% 18% 47% C- A+ D A C- A A+ F B- F F F F F 36% 22% 42% C F F C F D- D+ F+ D-
1.39 65% 44% 52% +16 0 1.35 27% 1.3 .36 9% .46 59% .27 1.45 72% 64% 48% +19 0 1.40 36% 1.1 .40 12% .30 82% .25
Feb
21		 Samford B+ A+ A+ A A+ 33% 31% 35% C- A+ D B- D+ F A+ D+ A+ F C B- F D 39% 37% 25% A C- D+ C- D+ F C F F
1.26 94% 53% 41% +20 -2 1.40 22% 1.2 .26 18% .44 72% .31 1.22 59% 33% 43% +2 -2 1.02 27% 1.1 .30 9% .36 87% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.3 39.8 27.4 67.5 2nd
3rd 4.0 8.3 12.3 3rd
4th 12.2 12.2 4th
5th 8.0 8.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 24.6 48.1 27.4 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 27.4% 24.2% 24.2% 14.0 0.0 1.2 4.1 1.3 0.0 20.7
11-7 48.1% 15.3% 15.3% 14.6 0.0 0.2 2.9 3.9 0.3 40.7
10-8 24.6% 12.7% 12.7% 15.0 0.0 0.4 2.2 0.5 21.4
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 14.4 82.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.6% 100.0% 14.0 0.4 17.8 62.3 19.3 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.9%
Lose Out 11.1%