Mercyhurst
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.1#353
Expected Predictive Rating-8.7#307
Pace62.3#334
Improvement+1.8#100

Offense
Total Offense-7.7#347
First Shot-4.3#297
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#341
Layup/Dunks-2.5#278
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#100
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#249
Freethrows-0.8#233
Improvement+0.9#137

Defense
Total Defense-5.4#329
First Shot-1.1#211
After Offensive Rebounds-4.3#363
Layups/Dunks-3.7#316
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#25
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#177
Freethrows-0.1#192
Improvement+0.9#138
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 4.4% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 4.0% 7.9% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 81.1% 95.8% 69.6%
Conference Champion 1.3% 2.3% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.0% 1.7%
First Four3.4% 4.3% 2.7%
First Round1.1% 1.3% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Away) - 43.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 412 - 1012 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 124   @ George Washington L 59-76 6%     0 - 1 -12.4 -6.7 -7.0
  Nov 06, 2024 329   @ Morgan St. W 78-73 31%     1 - 1 -3.1 -0.7 -2.3
  Nov 13, 2024 352   Canisius W 62-52 59%     2 - 1 -5.5 -12.4 +8.3
  Nov 16, 2024 237   @ Columbia L 63-77 15%     2 - 2 -16.0 -7.9 -9.5
  Nov 24, 2024 277   @ Air Force L 48-82 19%     2 - 3 -37.9 -17.0 -27.7
  Nov 27, 2024 116   @ California L 55-81 5%     2 - 4 -20.7 -13.0 -9.6
  Nov 30, 2024 337   @ Sacramento St. W 66-60 34%     3 - 4 -3.0 -0.7 -1.5
  Dec 01, 2024 72   @ San Francisco L 59-87 3%     3 - 5 -17.9 -4.4 -15.4
  Dec 07, 2024 281   Lafayette L 73-77 35%     3 - 6 -13.2 +4.1 -17.6
  Dec 15, 2024 148   @ Kent St. L 57-82 7%     3 - 7 -21.6 -6.2 -17.2
  Dec 18, 2024 313   @ Binghamton L 60-62 26%     3 - 8 -8.3 -10.6 +2.1
  Dec 22, 2024 39   @ West Virginia L 46-67 1%     3 - 9 -6.6 -13.7 +5.5
  Jan 03, 2025 321   Stonehill W 76-69 46%     4 - 9 1 - 0 -5.2 -2.0 -3.1
  Jan 05, 2025 209   Central Connecticut St. L 50-62 22%     4 - 10 1 - 1 -17.0 -13.3 -5.8
  Jan 10, 2025 336   @ St. Francis (PA) L 59-73 34%     4 - 11 1 - 2 -23.0 -8.9 -16.2
  Jan 12, 2025 355   @ Le Moyne L 63-79 42%     4 - 12 1 - 3 -27.0 -10.3 -18.3
  Jan 18, 2025 335   @ Wagner W 69-65 34%     5 - 12 2 - 3 -4.8 +3.7 -8.0
  Jan 20, 2025 327   @ LIU Brooklyn L 63-72 OT 30%     5 - 13 2 - 4 -16.7 -10.7 -5.8
  Jan 24, 2025 335   Wagner W 71-66 53%     6 - 13 3 - 4 -8.8 +6.5 -14.4
  Jan 26, 2025 327   LIU Brooklyn W 85-80 2OT 48%     7 - 13 4 - 4 -7.7 -3.9 -4.6
  Jan 30, 2025 336   St. Francis (PA) W 62-58 53%     8 - 13 5 - 4 -10.0 -14.4 +4.6
  Feb 01, 2025 322   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 67-60 29%     9 - 13 6 - 4 -0.4 -3.4 +3.6
  Feb 06, 2025 359   @ Chicago St. L 65-66 44%    
  Feb 08, 2025 355   Le Moyne W 72-69 62%    
  Feb 13, 2025 209   @ Central Connecticut St. L 57-70 10%    
  Feb 15, 2025 321   @ Stonehill L 63-69 27%    
  Feb 20, 2025 322   Fairleigh Dickinson L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 27, 2025 359   Chicago St. W 67-63 64%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 1.3 1st
2nd 0.3 7.9 11.7 3.8 0.1 23.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 7.2 17.8 4.4 0.1 29.5 3rd
4th 2.1 16.4 4.4 0.1 23.0 4th
5th 0.1 6.9 5.1 0.1 12.2 5th
6th 0.9 5.3 0.4 6.6 6th
7th 1.7 0.9 2.5 7th
8th 0.9 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 3.6 15.3 29.3 30.2 16.6 4.6 0.4 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 68.2% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
11-5 15.0% 0.7    0.2 0.5 0.1
10-6 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.4% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
11-5 4.6% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.3 4.3
10-6 16.6% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.9 15.7
9-7 30.2% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 1.2 29.0
8-8 29.3% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.7 28.6
7-9 15.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.3 15.0
6-10 3.6% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 3.5
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 16.0 3.4 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.0%