Mercyhurst
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-14.1#359
Expected Predictive Rating-9.2#315
Pace62.6#332
Improvement+0.0#181

Offense
Total Offense-8.1#356
First Shot-4.7#310
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#337
Layup/Dunks-2.6#279
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#96
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#232
Freethrows-1.9#285
Improvement+0.5#138

Defense
Total Defense-6.0#344
First Shot-1.8#234
After Offensive Rebounds-4.2#362
Layups/Dunks-3.9#317
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#29
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#213
Freethrows+0.5#155
Improvement-0.5#223
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.8% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2.1% 3.8% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 21.7% 33.5% 13.0%
Conference Champion 1.3% 2.4% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 33.8% 21.8% 42.7%
First Four2.1% 2.8% 1.6%
First Round0.6% 0.9% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stonehill (Home) - 42.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 49 - 139 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 135   @ George Washington L 59-76 5%     0 - 1 -12.7 -8.1 -5.9
  Nov 06, 2024 350   @ Morgan St. W 78-73 32%     1 - 1 -4.2 -0.8 -3.4
  Nov 13, 2024 353   Canisius W 62-52 56%     2 - 1 -5.7 -12.2 +7.9
  Nov 16, 2024 179   @ Columbia L 63-77 7%     2 - 2 -11.9 -4.5 -8.8
  Nov 24, 2024 268   @ Air Force L 48-82 15%     2 - 3 -36.8 -16.4 -27.1
  Nov 27, 2024 128   @ California L 55-81 5%     2 - 4 -21.1 -13.9 -9.2
  Nov 30, 2024 335   @ Sacramento St. W 66-60 27%     3 - 4 -1.8 +0.2 -1.2
  Dec 01, 2024 62   @ San Francisco L 59-87 2%     3 - 5 -16.5 -1.9 -16.5
  Dec 07, 2024 267   Lafayette L 73-77 30%     3 - 6 -12.7 +4.4 -17.4
  Dec 15, 2024 117   @ Kent St. L 57-82 4%     3 - 7 -19.1 -5.3 -15.7
  Dec 18, 2024 302   @ Binghamton L 60-62 19%     3 - 8 -6.8 -8.5 +1.5
  Dec 22, 2024 39   @ West Virginia L 46-67 1%     3 - 9 -6.3 -14.7 +6.8
  Jan 03, 2025 323   Stonehill L 66-68 42%    
  Jan 05, 2025 219   Central Connecticut St. L 60-68 23%    
  Jan 10, 2025 339   @ St. Francis (PA) L 66-72 30%    
  Jan 12, 2025 332   @ Le Moyne L 65-72 26%    
  Jan 18, 2025 307   @ Wagner L 53-62 20%    
  Jan 20, 2025 336   @ LIU Brooklyn L 63-69 29%    
  Jan 24, 2025 307   Wagner L 56-59 39%    
  Jan 26, 2025 336   LIU Brooklyn L 65-66 50%    
  Jan 30, 2025 339   St. Francis (PA) W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 01, 2025 333   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 70-77 26%    
  Feb 06, 2025 361   @ Chicago St. L 66-68 41%    
  Feb 08, 2025 332   Le Moyne L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 13, 2025 219   @ Central Connecticut St. L 57-71 10%    
  Feb 15, 2025 323   @ Stonehill L 63-71 23%    
  Feb 20, 2025 333   Fairleigh Dickinson L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 27, 2025 361   Chicago St. W 69-65 62%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 2.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.3 2.3 0.2 0.0 7.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 5.1 3.4 0.4 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 5.7 5.6 0.7 0.0 13.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 6.4 6.8 1.4 0.0 16.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.9 7.3 7.4 2.0 0.0 20.0 8th
9th 0.4 2.3 5.2 7.4 5.6 1.6 0.1 22.4 9th
Total 0.4 2.3 5.6 10.3 14.3 16.3 15.7 13.4 9.6 6.3 3.4 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 96.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-3 79.2% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
12-4 61.2% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
11-5 29.4% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 5.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.1% 23.1% 23.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.2% 17.8% 17.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
12-4 0.7% 10.7% 10.7% 16.0 0.1 0.6
11-5 1.6% 9.4% 9.4% 16.0 0.1 1.4
10-6 3.4% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 0.3 3.1
9-7 6.3% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.4 5.9
8-8 9.6% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.4 9.2
7-9 13.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.4 13.1
6-10 15.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.3 15.4
5-11 16.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 16.1
4-12 14.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.3
3-13 10.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.3
2-14 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.6
1-15 2.3% 2.3
0-16 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 16.0 2.1 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%