Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.2 #304
Expected Predictive Rating -8.7 #303
Pace 61.7 #345
Improvement -0.3 #196

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #329 D D+ C+ F F
Defense #246 C D+ C+ D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #301 1.07 #286 -4.0 #311
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% #10 0.84 #68 +6.6 #3
Three Pointers 32% #345 0.86 #346 -7.4 #356
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #320 -4.8 #320
Freethrows 0.20 #364 71% #241 0.14 #364
Second Chance 25.6% #314 1.06 #126 0.27 #270
Turnovers 16.1% #144
Total Offense -6.2 #329

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #17 1.12 #130 -3.6 #301
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #287 0.67 #47 +2.0 #46
Three Pointers 37% #297 1.02 #186 +2.2 #101
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #158 +0.5 #159
Freethrows 0.36 #328 72% #177 0.26 #325
Second Chance 33.6% #297 1.07 #254 0.36 #292
Turnovers 17.4% #132
Total Defense -2.0 #246

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.1% #354 1.9% #338
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.5% #279 -2.9% #119
Possession Length 20.7 #365 15.6 #8
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #356 0.20 #289
Improvement +0.6 #143 -0.9 #240

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 25.6% 30.1% 6.7%
.500 or above in Conference 94.4% 97.4% 81.9%
Conference Champion 1.4% 1.6% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Home) - 80.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 413 - 813 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 63 @Northwestern L 47 - 70 4% -12  0 - 1 -11 -19 F F C+ +7 A+ F A
 Thu, Nov 6 279 @Loyola Chicago W 73 - 65 33% +7  1 - 1 +4 +0 C+ C F +4 B A B
 Wed, Nov 12 345 @Canisius L 55 - 58 52% -3  1 - 2 -12 -13 F F+ D +1 F+ A- B-
 Sat, Nov 15 354 Morgan St. W 86 - 72 79% +13  2 - 2 -3 +7 C- A+ C- -10 B+ F B+
 Thu, Nov 20 90 @Miami (OH) L 71 - 76 6% -5  2 - 3 +4 +5 B- C C- -1 B+ C B-
 Sun, Nov 23 153 @Marshall L 60 - 69 15% -5  2 - 4 -6 -5 F C- C+ -2 D A+ C-
 Sun, Nov 30 57 @West Virginia L 38 - 70 4% -18  2 - 5 -20 -20 F C- F -4 B- F+ C
 Fri, Dec 5 310 @Lafayette L 71 - 79 41% -2  2 - 6 -14 +3 F A+ A+ -18 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 117 @Davidson L 47 - 80 10% -17  2 - 7 -27 -13 D F C+ -20 F D D+
 Wed, Dec 17 68 @Syracuse L 62 - 76 5% -13  2 - 8 -3 -7 C- C D+ +4 B+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 361 Binghamton W 82 - 61 85% +19  3 - 8 +2 +0 D+ D B +1 C A+ B-
 Fri, Jan 2 343 Fairleigh Dickinson L 67 - 74 73% +0  3 - 9 0 - 1 -22 -7 F C F+ -15 F B- A
 Sun, Jan 4 296 Le Moyne W 74 - 60 60% +8  4 - 9 1 - 1 +3 +3 D+ A- C+ +1 A+ F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 195 @LIU Brooklyn L 58 - 60 20% -4  4 - 10 1 - 2 -1 -4 D- C C+ +2 B+ A- D
 Sat, Jan 10 330 @Wagner W 70 - 69 47% -1  5 - 10 2 - 2 -7 -2 C F A+ -5 C- D+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 328 Stonehill L 57 - 62 OT 69% +2  5 - 11 2 - 3 -18 -17 F F D+ -2 C D+ C
 Mon, Jan 19 300 Central Connecticut St. W 79 - 61 61% +14  6 - 11 3 - 3 +7 +11 A+ C- C -1 A+ F C
 Fri, Jan 23 334 @New Haven W 61 - 57 49% -0  7 - 11 4 - 3 -4 -2 C F C+ -1 D C- B+
 Sun, Jan 25 355 Chicago St. W 61 - 59 81% +3  8 - 11 5 - 3 -15 -7 C- F+ D+ -7 C+ C- F
 Thu, Jan 29 334 New Haven W 70 - 51 71% +13  9 - 11 6 - 3 +5 +3 F A+ A+ +5 A B- F
 Sat, Jan 31 355 @Chicago St. L 74 - 78 62% -2  9 - 12 6 - 4 -15 -0 C+ F A- -15 F F D+
 Thu, Feb 5 357 St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 65 81%
 Sat, Feb 7 343 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 67 - 66 52%
 Thu, Feb 12 296 @Le Moyne L 67 - 70 37%
 Thu, Feb 19 330 Wagner W 69 - 64 69%
 Sat, Feb 21 195 LIU Brooklyn L 67 - 70 39%
 Thu, Feb 26 300 @Central Connecticut St. L 65 - 68 38%
 Sat, Feb 28 328 @Stonehill L 61 - 62 46%
Totals 13 - 15 10 - 7 -8 -6 D D+ C+ -2 C D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.7 0.5 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 2.6 8.5 5.6 1.0 17.7 2nd
3rd 1.7 11.8 7.6 0.6 21.7 3rd
4th 0.6 9.0 10.6 1.0 21.2 4th
5th 0.2 5.0 12.5 2.5 20.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 7.1 3.0 0.1 11.5 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 2.3 0.1 5.0 7th
8th 0.4 1.0 0.1 1.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.6 5.0 15.1 26.2 27.6 17.3 6.8 1.5 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 35.6% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.0
12-4 9.9% 0.7    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-5 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 1.5% 1.5
12-4 6.8% 6.8
11-5 17.3% 17.3
10-6 27.6% 27.6
9-7 26.2% 26.2
8-8 15.1% 15.1
7-9 5.0% 5.0
6-10 0.6% 0.6
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5%
Lose Out 0.6%