Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -8.7 #307
Expected Predictive Rating -10.5 #323
Pace 62.3 #342
Improvement +0.3 #159

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #331 F C C F F
Defense #241 C C- B- D+ F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #306 1.09 #264 -3.9 #309
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #11 0.86 #51 +6.6 #6
Three Pointers 33% #329 0.73 #365 -8.7 #358
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #335 -6.0 #335
Freethrows 11.5 #362 74% #143 8.5 #361
Second Chance 26.5% #295 1.18 #43 0.31 #192
Turnovers 16.7% #186
Total Offense -6.5 #331

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #6 1.14 #157 -5.2 #336
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #247 0.65 #53 +1.8 #63
Three Pointers 34% #341 1.03 #200 +3.3 #68
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #175 +0.0 #175
Freethrows 18.3 #233 77% #342 14.1 #80
Second Chance 34.0% #295 1.02 #157 0.35 #246
Turnovers 18.2% #90
Total Defense -2.2 #241

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.9% #354 2.1% #342
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.1% #302 -2.0% #143
Possession Length 21.0 #365 15.2 #4
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #353 0.23 #336
Improvement +0.5 #152 -0.2 #202

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 20.7% 33.5% 11.9%
.500 or above in Conference 70.4% 84.4% 60.6%
Conference Champion 1.7% 3.2% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 2.2% 8.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wagner (Away) - 41.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 411 - 912 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 60 @Northwestern L 47 - 70 4%  -12  0 - 1 -11 -20 F F B+ +8 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 6 251 @Loyola Chicago W 73 - 65 26%  +7  1 - 1 +6 +1 C+ C F +6 B A+ B+
 Wed, Nov 12 331 @Canisius L 55 - 58 46%  -3  1 - 2 -11 -12 F F F +1 F A+ B+
 Sat, Nov 15 362 Morgan St. W 86 - 72 83%  +13  2 - 2 -5 +7 D+ A+ C- -11 A+ F B
 Thu, Nov 20 93 @Miami (OH) L 71 - 76 6%  -5  2 - 3 +4 +6 B+ C+ D+ -2 A- C C+
 Sun, Nov 23 159 @Marshall L 60 - 69 14%  -5  2 - 4 -6 -5 F C C -2 D- A+ C
 Sun, Nov 30 67 @West Virginia L 38 - 70 4%  -18  2 - 5 -20 -22 F D+ F -3 C+ F B
 Fri, Dec 5 318 @Lafayette L 71 - 79 41%  -2  2 - 6 -14 +2 F A+ A -17 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 125 @Davidson L 47 - 80 10%  -17  2 - 7 -28 -13 D- F C -21 F D D
 Wed, Dec 17 69 @Syracuse L 62 - 76 4%  -13  2 - 8 -3 -5 C C D- +3 B F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 359 Binghamton W 82 - 61 81%  +19  3 - 8 +3 +0 D+ D- B+ +3 C A+ B
 Fri, Jan 2 349 Fairleigh Dickinson L 67 - 74 75%  +0  3 - 9 0 - 1 -23 -8 F C F -15 F B- A+
 Sun, Jan 4 291 Le Moyne W 74 - 60 56%  +8  4 - 9 1 - 1 +4 +2 D A C+ +4 A+ D- D+
 Thu, Jan 8 209 @LIU Brooklyn L 58 - 60 19%  -4  4 - 10 1 - 2 -2 -6 F C- C+ +4 A A D+
 Sat, Jan 10 316 @Wagner L 66 - 68 41% 
 Sat, Jan 17 340 Stonehill W 67 - 61 71% 
 Mon, Jan 19 269 Central Connecticut St. W 68 - 67 53% 
 Fri, Jan 23 338 @New Haven L 61 - 62 49% 
 Sun, Jan 25 353 Chicago St. W 72 - 65 76% 
 Thu, Jan 29 338 New Haven W 65 - 59 71% 
 Sat, Jan 31 353 @Chicago St. W 69 - 68 55% 
 Thu, Feb 5 361 St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 64 82% 
 Sat, Feb 7 349 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 69 - 68 54% 
 Thu, Feb 12 291 @Le Moyne L 69 - 73 34% 
 Thu, Feb 19 316 Wagner W 69 - 65 63% 
 Sat, Feb 21 209 LIU Brooklyn L 68 - 71 38% 
 Thu, Feb 26 269 @Central Connecticut St. L 65 - 70 31% 
 Sat, Feb 28 340 @Stonehill L 63 - 64 49% 
Totals 12 - 16 9 - 8 -9 -6 F C C -2 C C- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.0 3.4 1.5 0.4 0.0 9.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 5.3 5.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 15.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 6.5 7.0 2.1 0.2 17.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 6.0 7.3 2.0 0.1 16.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 4.1 7.3 2.1 0.1 0.0 13.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.3 6.0 2.3 0.1 10.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 4.1 2.4 0.2 8.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 2.4 1.8 0.3 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.2 2.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.0 4.8 8.6 13.4 17.1 17.5 15.1 11.1 6.2 2.5 0.9 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 84.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1
14-2 51.2% 0.4    0.3 0.2 0.0
13-3 27.3% 0.7    0.3 0.4 0.1
12-4 6.6% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.1% 0.1
14-2 0.9% 0.9
13-3 2.5% 2.5
12-4 6.2% 6.2
11-5 11.1% 11.1
10-6 15.1% 15.1
9-7 17.5% 17.5
8-8 17.1% 17.1
7-9 13.4% 13.4
6-10 8.6% 8.6
5-11 4.8% 4.8
4-12 2.0% 2.0
3-13 0.6% 0.6
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%