Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.6 290
Results Rating -9.3 315
Pace 62.2 339
Improvement +0.9 154

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 305 D C- B- F F
Defense D+ 249 C- C- C+ D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 319 D 53% 302 -4.8 335
2 Pt. Jumpers 58% 24 B 44% 46 +7.0 3
Three Pointers 33% 332 F 28% 361 -7.1 353
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.0 355 D+ -3.0 290
1st FG Attempt D 0.92 327
Second Chance D 26.2% 303 B- 1.08 98 C- 0.28 244
Turnovers B- 15.6% 99
Freethrows F 0.21 364 C 73% 174 F 0.15 364
Total Offense D -5.1 305

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 52% 112 B 8.2% 45
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 37% 36 C+ 4.6% 148
Three Pointers C+ 85% 169 C- 1.2% 262
Total C- 54% 208 B- 4.7% 76

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 18 C 59% 199 +4.4 324
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 266 B- 35% 82 -1.5 66
Three Pointers 36% 303 C- 34% 213 -2.0 102
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 320 C +0.0 177
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 211
Second Chance D+ 33.2% 294 C 1.02 163 C- 0.34 249
Turnovers C+ 17.9% 116
Freethrows D- 0.37 335 C 73% 202 D- 0.27 333
Total Defense D+ -2.5 249

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 51% 242 C 11.0% 172
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 44% 357 B+ 8.5% 36
Three Pointers C+ 83% 145 B+ 2.0% 29
Total D+ 59% 259 B 7.3% 61

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 20.3 365 15.9 11
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 337 0.19 241
Improvement +3.1 #57 -2.1 #291

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 306 291 275
Results Rating Rank 325 308 285
Conference Record 9 - 7 10 - 6 11 - 5
Conference Finish 5 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Away) - 41.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 413 - 913 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 69 @Northwestern L 47 - 70 5% -12  0% 0 - 1 D- -12 F -22 F F B A +9 A+ F A
 Thu, Nov 6 282 @Loyola Chicago W 73 - 65 36% +7  78% 1 - 1 C+ +4 C- -1 C+ C F B+ +6 B A- B-
 Wed, Nov 12 344 @Canisius L 55 - 58 57% -3  16% 1 - 2 D- -12 F -15 F F+ D- B- +2 F+ A- B-
 Sat, Nov 15 350 Morgan St. W 86 - 72 80% +13  93% 2 - 2 C- -3 B- +5 C- A+ C- D- -7 A- F A
 Thu, Nov 20 83 @Miami (OH) L 71 - 76 6% -5  4% 2 - 3 B- +5 C+ +3 B- C+ C- B- +2 B+ C+ B-
 Sun, Nov 23 176 @Marshall L 60 - 69 18% -5  4% 2 - 4 D+ -7 F -10 F D+ B- B- +2 D A C
 Sun, Nov 30 55 @West Virginia L 38 - 70 4% -18  0% 2 - 5 F -19 F -21 F C- F C- -3 B- F+ C
 Fri, Dec 5 322 @Lafayette L 71 - 79 49% -2  19% 2 - 6 F+ -15 C +0 F A+ A F -16 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 113 @Davidson L 47 - 80 11% -17  0% 2 - 7 F -27 F -16 D- F C+ F -17 F D D+
 Wed, Dec 17 73 @Syracuse L 62 - 76 5% -13  0% 2 - 8 C- -3 F+ -10 D+ C D B+ +7 A- F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 359 Binghamton W 82 - 61 86% +19  97% 3 - 8 C+ +2 D+ -3 D+ D B- B +5 C+ A+ B
 Fri, Jan 2 333 Fairleigh Dickinson L 67 - 74 74% +0  45% 3 - 9 0 - 1 F -21 F+ -10 F C- F+ F -12 F B A
 Sun, Jan 4 300 Le Moyne W 74 - 60 64% +8  86% 4 - 9 1 - 1 C+ +3 C +1 D+ A C B- +3 A+ F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 219 @LIU Brooklyn L 58 - 60 25% -4  29% 4 - 10 1 - 2 C- -2 D- -7 D- C+ B- B +4 B+ B+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 320 @Wagner W 70 - 69 49% -1  30% 5 - 10 2 - 2 D+ -6 D+ -3 C F A+ C- -3 D+ D C-
 Sat, Jan 17 341 Stonehill L 57 - 62 OT 77% +2  65% 5 - 11 2 - 3 F -20 F -20 F F C- C -1 C D+ C+
 Mon, Jan 19 303 Central Connecticut St. W 79 - 61 64% +14  96% 6 - 11 3 - 3 B- +7 B+ +8 A+ C- C- C+ +1 A+ F C-
 Fri, Jan 23 321 @New Haven W 61 - 57 49% -0  37% 7 - 11 4 - 3 C- -3 D+ -3 C F+ C+ C+ +1 D D+ A
 Sun, Jan 25 347 Chicago St. W 61 - 59 79% +3  85% 8 - 11 5 - 3 D- -14 F+ -9 C- F+ D+ D+ -4 C+ C- F
 Thu, Jan 29 321 New Haven W 70 - 51 71% +13  88% 9 - 11 6 - 3 B- +6 C +1 F A+ A+ A- +7 A B- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 347 @Chicago St. L 74 - 78 59% -2  27% 9 - 12 6 - 4 D- -14 D+ -2 C+ F A- F -12 F F C-
 Thu, Feb 5 355 St. Francis (PA) W 98 - 89 OT 83% +3  70% 10 - 12 7 - 4 D -9 B- +4 F A+ B- F -14 F C+ C+
 Sat, Feb 7 333 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 52 - 55 53% -0  46% 10 - 13 7 - 5 D- -11 F -13 F D A C+ +1 D+ C A+
 Thu, Feb 12 300 @Le Moyne L 57 - 58 41% -1  37% 10 - 14 7 - 6 D+ -6 F -19 F F A+ A+ +13 B- A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 14 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 94 - 79 66% +9  89% 11 - 14 8 - 6 C+ +3 A +14 A- A- A F -11 F B F+
 Thu, Feb 19 320 Wagner L 80 - 83 OT 71% -4  19% 11 - 15 8 - 7 F+ -16 D- -7 D D B F+ -9 C- D- B
 Sat, Feb 21 219 LIU Brooklyn W 91 - 83 45% +2  51% 12 - 15 9 - 7 C +2 A +14 A- B A+ F -12 F A- D+
 Thu, Feb 26 303 @Central Connecticut St. L 67 - 69 41%
 Sat, Feb 28 341 @Stonehill W 63 - 61 56%
Totals 13 - 16 10 - 8 -8 D -5 C+ D+ F D+ -3 F C F



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D B F D+ 33% 58% 33% F D D B- C- B- F C F D+ C B- C- C 46% 18% 36% D C- D+ C C- C+ D- C D-
1.01 53% 44% 28% -3 -2 0.92 26% 1.1 .28 16% .21 73% .15 1.12 59% 35% 34% 0 +1 1.04 33% 1.0 .34 18% .37 73% .15
Nov
3		 Northwestern F F A+ F F 30% 38% 32% F F F F F B D- A- D+ A A+ C+ A+ A+ 48% 17% 35% F+ A+ F F F A F B F
0.70 31% 50% 6% -17 -3 0.62 21% 0.6 .12 16% .23 77% .18 1.04 41% 38% 19% -16 +1 0.72 39% 1.5 .61 18% .68 71% .49
Nov
6		 Loyola Chicago C- D A+ C C+ 40% 22% 38% C C+ C+ D+ C F A C- A B+ C+ A+ B+ A- 45% 6% 49% D- B B A A- B- F F+ F
1.08 50% 60% 35% +2 0 1.07 31% 1.0 .31 18% .38 76% .29 0.96 55% 0% 29% -7 +2 0.92 27% 0.7 .19 21% .43 74% .32
Nov
12		 Canisius F F A+ F F+ 17% 33% 50% F F F C- F+ D- F B- F B- D+ F A+ F+ 47% 21% 32% F+ F+ A B A- B- F A+ F
0.89 50% 63% 21% -3 -3 0.90 21% 1.0 .21 18% .16 75% .12 0.94 56% 63% 25% 0 +1 1.03 19% 0.8 .15 21% .54 58% .31
Nov
15		 Morgan St. B- B+ F A C+ 32% 28% 40% F C- B A+ A+ C- B+ F C- D- D A+ A B+ 38% 43% 20% A- A- F F+ F A F F F
1.27 69% 29% 40% +4 -1 1.08 41% 1.7 .69 16% .49 61% .30 1.06 60% 18% 25% -11 -3 0.75 51% 1.0 .51 24% .74 84% .62
Nov
20		 Miami (OH) C+ A- A+ C- B+ 28% 28% 45% D- B- C+ C C+ C- D F+ D- B- F A+ A A- 42% 18% 40% C- B+ D+ A- C+ B- F F F
1.08 69% 54% 33% +7 -2 1.13 31% 0.9 .28 18% .24 69% .17 1.16 74% 25% 28% +1 +1 1.04 27% 1.0 .27 17% .57 84% .48
Nov
23		 Marshall F D+ C- F F 40% 34% 26% D F D+ D D+ B- D- F F B- B+ A+ F D 25% 18% 57% D+ D C+ A+ A C D- F F+
0.95 55% 35% 15% -9 -2 0.80 32% 0.8 .27 16% .30 56% .17 1.09 55% 13% 48% +6 -1 1.14 30% 0.8 .24 17% .31 81% .25
Nov
30		 West Virginia F F F+ C- F 35% 37% 28% F F F+ A+ C- F F+ F F C- C+ F A+ B+ 54% 10% 35% F B- F C F+ C F+ B- D
0.63 33% 25% 33% -14 -2 0.70 17% 1.3 .22 25% .18 13% .02 1.15 58% 60% 24% -3 +2 1.00 40% 1.1 .46 16% .39 65% .26
Dec
5		 Lafayette C D- D+ F F 29% 43% 28% F F B A+ A+ A F C+ F F A- A F F 43% 9% 48% D- F F F F A+ D F F
1.11 53% 36% 25% -6 -4 0.83 37% 1.6 .61 9% .14 75% .10 1.24 47% 25% 57% +11 +2 1.27 36% 1.1 .40 24% .33 94% .31
Dec
13		 Davidson F A+ F F D 33% 38% 29% F+ D- F C- F C+ B- F F+ F F F+ F F 62% 10% 29% F F F A- D D+ D- C+ D
0.80 79% 19% 25% -4 -3 0.88 9% 1.0 .09 17% .33 44% .14 1.36 69% 50% 58% +18 +3 1.45 42% 0.9 .38 15% .34 65% .22
Dec
17		 Syracuse F+ B F+ F C 34% 38% 28% F D+ C- C+ C D F D+ F B+ B F A+ A 50% 18% 32% D+ A- F+ F F A+ B+ F C+
0.87 61% 25% 27% -7 -3 0.83 30% 1.2 .35 21% .18 70% .12 1.07 56% 56% 25% -2 +1 1.00 38% 1.4 .53 22% .29 75% .22
Dec
20		 Binghamton D+ C A D+ C- 43% 31% 26% F+ D+ D- C+ D B- F A+ F B D+ A+ B B 55% 20% 25% F C+ A+ A+ A+ B F D+ F
1.18 60% 50% 33% +4 -1 1.09 26% 1.1 .29 10% .19 83% .16 0.88 59% 13% 30% -6 +1 0.93 11% 0.0 .00 23% .58 77% .45
Jan
2		 Fairleigh Dickinson F+ C+ A+ F F 35% 28% 37% D- F D+ C+ C- F+ B A+ A+ F C F F F 59% 9% 32% F F D- A+ B A D- F+ F+
1.05 63% 54% 18% -3 -1 0.93 26% 1.0 .26 19% .38 90% .35 1.16 58% 75% 50% +11 +3 1.30 36% 0.6 .23 23% .33 75% .24
Jan
4		 Le Moyne C F A+ C+ C- 38% 32% 30% F+ D+ B+ B+ A C B A+ A- B- B C A+ A+ 46% 16% 38% D+ A+ F D+ F D+ B+ A+ A
1.16 44% 47% 36% -2 -1 0.96 38% 1.2 .47 14% .35 84% .29 0.94 52% 38% 16% -13 +1 0.78 35% 1.1 .38 19% .27 57% .15
Jan
8		 LIU Brooklyn D- F A+ F D 45% 35% 20% F D- D- A+ C+ B- F F F B A C C B+ 47% 33% 20% B B+ D+ A+ B+ D F D+ F
0.96 45% 53% 20% -5 -1 0.90 28% 1.3 .38 17% .14 57% .08 1.00 48% 40% 33% -4 -1 0.91 37% 0.7 .26 18% .39 68% .26
Jan
10		 Wagner D+ C- B+ B C 51% 22% 27% C- C F F F A+ C- A C+ C- A+ F F C 53% 8% 39% F D+ C+ F D C- D+ A+ B-
1.08 56% 45% 38% +2 +1 1.08 4% 0.0 .00 8% .35 81% .28 1.07 35% 50% 47% -4 +3 1.00 31% 1.3 .38 19% .30 56% .17
Jan
17		 Stonehill F C F+ F F+ 41% 43% 16% F F C F F C- F+ F F C D A+ A- C+ 53% 13% 33% F C B- F D+ C+ F A+ F
0.82 57% 29% 22% -7 -3 0.82 28% 0.3 .09 13% .21 54% .12 0.89 58% 0% 27% -9 +2 0.89 25% 1.1 .28 21% .44 54% .24
Jan
19		 Central Connecticut St. B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 37% 33% 29% F A+ C+ D- C- C- F A+ F C+ B A+ A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% F+ A+ F D F C- D D+ D
1.28 53% 59% 60% +16 -2 1.31 33% 0.9 .30 13% .07 100% .07 0.99 53% 25% 21% -13 -1 0.75 38% 1.1 .40 16% .29 80% .23
Jan
23		 New Haven D+ D+ A- B+ C 48% 24% 28% C- C F A+ F+ C+ F A+ F C+ F F+ A+ D- 44% 23% 33% D+ D D+ C- D+ A F C F
1.04 55% 45% 38% +2 0 1.07 12% 1.7 .20 15% .14 100% .14 0.97 71% 44% 23% +1 0 1.05 24% 1.0 .24 24% .38 71% .27
Jan
25		 Chicago St. F+ A- C+ A B- 16% 34% 50% F C- F C+ F+ D+ F D F D+ A A+ F B- 25% 27% 48% D+ C+ C D+ C- F B+ B- B+
1.06 71% 40% 41% +8 -3 1.11 24% 1.1 .28 21% .15 71% .11 1.02 42% 15% 39% -7 -2 0.85 29% 1.0 .29 10% .21 73% .15
Jan
29		 New Haven C F C+ C- F 35% 35% 29% F F C- A+ A+ A+ C A+ B- A- A- F A+ A 38% 31% 31% B+ A B C- B- F+ F A+ F
1.15 28% 39% 33% -11 -2 0.76 27% 1.9 .51 7% .26 87% .23 0.84 50% 54% 8% -10 -1 0.79 18% 1.0 .18 15% .44 61% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Chicago St. D+ A+ A- D B 37% 25% 37% F+ C+ D+ F F A- F D F F B+ B+ F F 29% 29% 42% D+ F F D- F C- F A+ F
1.11 79% 46% 32% +8 -1 1.18 32% 0.5 .15 15% .25 71% .18 1.17 46% 31% 47% +3 -2 1.04 36% 1.1 .39 15% .53 63% .34
Feb
5		 St. Francis (PA) B- F A+ F F 41% 22% 37% D F A+ A A+ B- A+ A A+ F C D F F 44% 18% 39% F F D- A- C+ C+ F C+ F
1.27 45% 58% 25% -6 0 0.91 49% 1.4 .67 17% .47 80% .37 1.15 56% 40% 45% +6 +1 1.16 32% 0.8 .24 19% .35 68% .24
Feb
7		 Fairleigh Dickinson F B- B F F 24% 39% 37% F F F+ C+ D A F C- F C+ F A+ A+ C- 38% 15% 46% D D+ F A C A+ D F F
0.96 64% 44% 24% -2 -3 0.91 20% 1.0 .20 11% .15 71% .10 1.01 80% 17% 22% -3 +1 0.97 39% 0.7 .29 24% .32 85% .27
Feb
12		 Le Moyne F F D+ F F 23% 33% 44% F F F C+ F A+ F A F A+ F B A+ B- 51% 19% 30% D+ B- C- A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ B
0.83 46% 32% 20% -14 -3 0.68 19% 1.1 .21 9% .17 82% .14 0.84 71% 33% 14% -3 +1 0.98 26% 0.4 .11 26% .35 56% .20
Feb
14		 St. Francis (PA) A A+ A+ B+ A 38% 22% 40% D A- C A+ A- A F+ A+ C F F+ B+ F F 55% 15% 30% F F A D+ B F+ F A F
1.37 79% 55% 40% +15 0 1.32 33% 1.5 .50 13% .30 89% .27 1.15 65% 29% 43% +7 +2 1.19 19% 1.0 .19 15% .56 61% .34
Feb
19		 Wagner D- F B+ B D+ 33% 33% 33% F D C- F+ D B B F C- F+ A+ F F D 30% 36% 34% A+ C- D- C- D- B F F F
1.07 44% 44% 39% 0 -2 0.98 28% 0.9 .26 12% .41 63% .26 1.11 33% 50% 41% +1 -3 0.98 37% 1.1 .40 21% .51 80% .41
Feb
21		 LIU Brooklyn A F A+ C+ A+ 38% 30% 32% F A- C+ A- B A+ C A+ B+ F F F C F 40% 29% 31% B F A B A- D+ F+ F F
1.30 45% 81% 35% +9 -1 1.17 35% 1.2 .42 11% .34 81% .28 1.19 84% 50% 33% +14 -1 1.27 28% 0.9 .24 19% .35 80% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 1.6 24.0 25.6 2nd
3rd 0.5 24.8 25.3 3rd
4th 12.8 23.3 36.2 4th
5th 12.8 12.8 5th
6th 0.2 0.2 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 26.3 49.8 24.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 24.0% 24.0
10-6 49.8% 49.8
9-7 26.3% 26.3
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 24.0%
Lose Out 26.3%