Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#191
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#197
Pace63.1#313
Improvement+2.2#103

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#298
First Shot-1.6#219
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#337
Layup/Dunks-4.0#320
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#74
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#92
Freethrows-2.1#301
Improvement+0.1#185

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#89
First Shot+3.7#71
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#226
Layups/Dunks+0.4#153
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#129
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#57
Freethrows-0.5#223
Improvement+2.1#81
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.8% 56.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
First Round36.7% 56.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 31 - 32 - 8
Quad 417 - 719 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 229   Vermont W 65-51 68%     1 - 0 +7.6 -1.7 +10.7
  Nov 13, 2024 36   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 42-63 6%     1 - 1 -4.6 -23.3 +19.0
  Nov 17, 2024 187   Princeton L 57-68 60%     1 - 2 -15.2 -6.8 -10.4
  Nov 20, 2024 65   @ Rutgers L 63-74 12%     1 - 3 +0.0 -3.9 +3.5
  Nov 22, 2024 72   @ Butler L 39-78 13%     1 - 4 -28.3 -25.8 -8.2
  Nov 25, 2024 236   @ Umass Lowell L 74-81 49%     1 - 5 -8.4 -5.9 -2.2
  Nov 27, 2024 182   Texas San Antonio L 74-76 49%     1 - 6 -3.4 -6.2 +3.0
  Nov 29, 2024 101   @ Troy W 72-68 20%     2 - 6 +11.1 +11.7 -0.3
  Dec 06, 2024 356   @ Canisius W 60-52 83%     3 - 6 1 - 0 -3.9 -17.5 +14.1
  Dec 08, 2024 311   @ Niagara W 80-62 67%     4 - 6 2 - 0 +11.7 +23.2 -7.0
  Dec 13, 2024 298   Boston University W 64-61 80%     5 - 6 -7.5 +1.5 -8.3
  Dec 17, 2024 81   @ Stanford L 68-74 15%     5 - 7 +3.6 +2.9 +0.4
  Dec 19, 2024 27   @ St. Mary's L 68-73 5%     5 - 8 +12.4 +16.8 -5.2
  Jan 03, 2025 327   Fairfield W 67-54 85%     6 - 8 3 - 0 +0.1 -1.6 +3.7
  Jan 10, 2025 261   @ Sacred Heart W 66-65 54%     7 - 8 4 - 0 -1.7 -8.0 +6.3
  Jan 12, 2025 235   Manhattan W 69-62 69%     8 - 8 5 - 0 +0.2 -4.4 +5.3
  Jan 16, 2025 199   @ Quinnipiac L 76-81 41%     8 - 9 5 - 1 -4.4 +4.3 -8.6
  Jan 18, 2025 255   Siena W 64-58 72%     9 - 9 6 - 1 -1.8 -5.1 +4.0
  Jan 23, 2025 287   @ St. Peter's W 48-37 61%     10 - 9 7 - 1 +6.5 -13.4 +22.1
  Jan 25, 2025 327   @ Fairfield W 75-54 71%     11 - 9 8 - 1 +13.6 +5.0 +10.2
  Jan 31, 2025 259   Mount St. Mary's L 58-66 73%     11 - 10 8 - 2 -16.1 -8.5 -8.8
  Feb 02, 2025 303   @ Rider W 66-64 64%     12 - 10 9 - 2 -3.5 -4.7 +1.4
  Feb 06, 2025 311   Niagara W 64-59 83%     13 - 10 10 - 2 -6.8 -12.9 +6.3
  Feb 08, 2025 356   Canisius W 69-51 92%     14 - 10 11 - 2 +0.6 -10.2 +12.0
  Feb 14, 2025 235   @ Manhattan L 75-79 48%     14 - 11 11 - 3 -5.3 +2.3 -7.7
  Feb 16, 2025 266   Marist L 60-61 75%     14 - 12 11 - 4 -9.6 -8.9 -0.8
  Feb 21, 2025 261   Sacred Heart L 59-60 74%     14 - 13 11 - 5 -9.2 -17.7 +8.4
  Feb 23, 2025 256   @ Iona W 77-70 OT 53%     15 - 13 12 - 5 +4.6 +5.8 -1.2
  Feb 28, 2025 303   Rider L 78-83 81%     15 - 14 12 - 6 -16.0 +4.1 -20.4
  Mar 02, 2025 199   Quinnipiac W 73-63 63%     16 - 14 13 - 6 +5.1 +0.8 +4.4
  Mar 06, 2025 266   @ Marist W 75-53 56%     17 - 14 14 - 6 +18.9 +14.0 +7.8
  Mar 12, 2025 261   Sacred Heart W 66-62 OT 64%     18 - 14 -1.5 -14.1 +12.5
Projected Record 18 - 14 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 100.0% 36.8% 36.8% 15.5 0.5 16.9 19.4 63.2
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 36.8% 36.8% 0.0% 15.5 0.5 16.9 19.4 63.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 36.8% 100.0% 15.5 1.4 46.0 52.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 28.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 34.5%