Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.2 #237
Expected Predictive Rating +0.4 #161
Pace 62.7 #337
Improvement +3.4 #34

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #272 D- F B- B B
Defense #195 C+ F C+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #214 1.03 #313 -3.0 #285
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #328 0.62 #321 -4.1 #346
Three Pointers 50% #22 0.91 #296 +2.3 #110
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #308 -4.8 #312
Freethrows 18.9 #101 77% #56 14.5 #70
Second Chance 23.1% #345 0.90 #327 0.21 #353
Turnovers 15.3% #99
Total Offense -3.5 #272

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #71 1.09 #94 -1.0 #215
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #126 0.86 #321 -1.8 #301
Three Pointers 35% #321 0.94 #99 +4.2 #42
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #132 +1.4 #134
Freethrows 18.3 #232 71% #125 13.0 #149
Second Chance 41.4% #365 1.00 #122 0.41 #341
Turnovers 17.7% #110
Total Defense -0.7 #195

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.9% #67 0.3% #192
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.7% #333 -3.2% #121
Possession Length 18.1 #265 18.2 #317
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #178 0.13 #49
Improvement +1.7 #77 +1.7 #76

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 10.6% 7.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.2
.500 or above 79.6% 89.5% 71.8%
.500 or above in Conference 95.5% 98.6% 93.0%
Conference Champion 19.5% 28.4% 12.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.7%
First Round8.6% 10.4% 7.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Peter's (Away) - 44.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 74 - 10
Quad 415 - 518 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 173 South Dakota St. L 66 - 75 38%  -2  0 - 1 -10 -9 F F C -2 C+ D A-
 Thu, Nov 6 33 @Auburn L 57 - 95 4%  -18  0 - 2 -21 -9 F F B+ -14 B+ F D
 Tue, Nov 11 172 @Tarleton St. L 62 - 76 28%  -5  0 - 3 -12 -13 F F F +1 D+ B- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 258 @Boston University W 91 - 79 44%  +10  1 - 3 +9 +21 A+ C+ F -11 F F D+
 Wed, Nov 19 339 Maine W 72 - 65 83%  +3  2 - 3 -8 +6 D A- B+ -13 C F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 12 @Florida L 45 - 80 2%  -24  2 - 4 -14 -13 F D D -3 A+ F B-
 Fri, Nov 28 216 @Penn L 65 - 77 34%  -4  2 - 5 -12 -7 F F A+ -5 D+ F D+
 Sat, Nov 29 109 Hofstra L 58 - 78 21%  -12  2 - 6 -16 -11 D F B -6 C B+ A
 Sun, Nov 30 217 La Salle W 66 - 60 46%  +4  3 - 6 +3 -1 D D- B +5 C D A+
 Thu, Dec 4 348 Rider W 68 - 66 85%  +1  4 - 6 1 - 0 -13 -2 C+ F C+ -11 F F A+
 Sun, Dec 7 282 Fairfield W 74 - 63 70%  +10  5 - 6 2 - 0 +1 +1 B- F C +1 D A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 242 @Princeton W 59 - 56 40%  +2  6 - 6 +1 -0 F F A+ +2 A+ F D+
 Sun, Dec 14 198 @Vermont L 59 - 66 32%  -7  6 - 7 -6 -4 F C F -4 A D D-
 Mon, Dec 29 285 @Sacred Heart W 80 - 72 49%  +8  7 - 7 3 - 0 +4 +8 C+ F B- -3 D D+ C-
 Fri, Jan 2 292 Mount St. Mary's W 75 - 65 72%  +6  8 - 7 4 - 0 -0 -0 F D+ C- +0 A C- B+
 Sun, Jan 4 311 Manhattan W 73 - 66 77%  +4  9 - 7 5 - 0 -5 -5 C F B +0 B+ C- F
 Fri, Jan 9 190 @Siena W 63 - 59 31%  +9  10 - 7 6 - 0 +5 +10 C C- A+ -4 C F C+
 Sun, Jan 11 259 @St. Peter's L 63 - 65 44% 
 Sat, Jan 17 158 Quinnipiac L 70 - 71 46% 
 Mon, Jan 19 140 @Marist L 59 - 67 22% 
 Thu, Jan 22 214 @Iona L 69 - 73 35% 
 Sat, Jan 24 259 St. Peter's W 66 - 62 67% 
 Sun, Feb 1 285 Sacred Heart W 75 - 69 70% 
 Thu, Feb 5 292 @Mount St. Mary's W 68 - 67 51% 
 Sat, Feb 7 348 @Rider W 67 - 62 68% 
 Thu, Feb 12 140 Marist L 62 - 64 42% 
 Sun, Feb 15 158 @Quinnipiac L 67 - 74 26% 
 Fri, Feb 20 190 Siena W 67 - 66 53% 
 Sun, Feb 22 214 Iona W 72 - 70 57% 
 Fri, Feb 27 331 @Canisius W 66 - 63 62% 
 Sun, Mar 1 354 @Niagara W 67 - 61 71% 
Totals 17 - 14 13 - 7 -4 -3 D- F B- -1 C+ F C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.6 6.2 3.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 19.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.6 7.2 6.2 1.5 0.2 17.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 7.5 6.3 1.4 0.0 17.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 6.9 6.3 1.3 0.0 16.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 5.1 5.6 1.3 0.0 13.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.1 1.0 0.1 8.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 1.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.1 6.4 11.8 16.0 17.9 16.7 13.2 7.8 3.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
18-2 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.0
17-3 96.0% 3.7    3.3 0.4
16-4 79.6% 6.2    3.8 2.2 0.3 0.0
15-5 42.2% 5.6    1.8 2.5 1.1 0.1
14-6 11.7% 2.0    0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.5% 19.5 11.0 5.8 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.4% 16.7% 16.7% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
18-2 1.4% 21.0% 21.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.1
17-3 3.9% 21.5% 21.5% 14.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 3.0
16-4 7.8% 17.2% 17.2% 14.7 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.1 6.4
15-5 13.2% 12.8% 12.8% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.3 11.5
14-6 16.7% 10.6% 10.6% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.5 14.9
13-7 17.9% 7.7% 7.7% 15.5 0.1 0.6 0.7 16.5
12-8 16.0% 5.7% 5.7% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 15.1
11-9 11.8% 4.1% 4.1% 15.8 0.1 0.4 11.4
10-10 6.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.3
9-11 3.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.1
8-12 1.1% 1.1
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 15.1 91.1 0.0%