Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.1 160
Results Rating +1.7 136
Pace 61.9 343
Improvement +10.3 1

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 224 D+ D C+ B+ B
Defense C+ 128 B F+ B D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 133 D 53% 299 -1.1 225
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 338 C 39% 160 -3.0 320
Three Pointers 47% 55 D+ 32% 277 +1.5 137
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.1 49 D -3.4 304
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 257
Second Chance D- 23.9% 340 C- 1.00 223 D 0.24 324
Turnovers C+ 16.1% 131
Freethrows B 0.34 63 A- 79% 10 B+ 0.27 24
Total Offense C- -1.7 224

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 41% 297 F+ 15.0% 345
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 210 D 7.4% 310
Three Pointers B- 88% 100 B- 0.6% 103
Total C 56% 183 D- 7.3% 330

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 102 B+ 52% 40 -0.8 145
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 99 D+ 41% 279 +1.2 290
Three Pointers 35% 332 B 31% 54 -4.5 23
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 150 B -3.6 48
1st FG Attempt B 0.95 57
Second Chance F 40.9% 365 C+ 1.01 151 F+ 0.41 356
Turnovers B 18.9% 62
Freethrows D 0.35 300 C+ 72% 125 D+ 0.25 285
Total Defense C+ +1.6 128

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 58% 344 B 14.4% 60
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 44% 360 C+ 6.2% 94
Three Pointers D- 91% 351 A+ 3.6% 2
Total D- 64% 334 A- 8.7% 20

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.6 303 18.4 321
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 181 0.12 35
Improvement +4.4 #13 +5.9 #7

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 186 162 139
Results Rating Rank 166 140 97
Conference Record 16 - 4 18 - 2 18 - 2
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27% 27% 25%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round27% 27% 24%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Iona (Home) - 76.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 54 - 8
Quad 419 - 223 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 210 South Dakota St. L 66 - 75 60% -2  31% 0 - 1 D- -12 F -12 F F C- C -0 B- F+ A-
 Thu, Nov 6 33 @Auburn L 57 - 95 6% -18  3% 0 - 2 F -20 F -11 F D- B F -11 B F D+
 Tue, Nov 11 230 @Tarleton St. L 62 - 76 53% -5  17% 0 - 3 F+ -15 F -14 F F+ F C +0 D D A-
 Sat, Nov 15 257 @Boston University W 91 - 79 59% +10  95% 1 - 3 B +10 A+ +18 A+ C+ F D- -8 D F D-
 Wed, Nov 19 343 Maine W 72 - 65 92% +3  77% 2 - 3 D -8 C+ +3 D- B+ B F -11 B- F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 4 @Florida L 45 - 80 2% -24  0% 2 - 4 D -8 F -13 F D+ C B- +3 A+ F B
 Fri, Nov 28 169 @Penn L 65 - 77 40% -4  29% 2 - 5 D -10 D- -6 F D- A+ D+ -4 D+ F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 106 Hofstra L 58 - 78 34% -12  2% 2 - 6 F+ -16 F -13 D F C+ D+ -3 C- C+ A
 Sun, Nov 30 200 La Salle W 66 - 60 58% +4  88% 3 - 6 C+ +4 C- -1 D+ D+ B- B+ +6 C F+ A+
 Thu, Dec 4 356 Rider W 68 - 66 94% +1  63% 4 - 6 1 - 0 F+ -16 F+ -9 C- F B- D- -7 D F A+
 Sun, Dec 7 264 Fairfield W 74 - 63 80% +10  98% 5 - 6 2 - 0 C+ +2 C- -1 B F B- B +4 C B A
 Wed, Dec 10 254 @Princeton W 59 - 56 57% +2  71% 6 - 6 C +1 D -6 F+ F A A- +7 A+ F C
 Sun, Dec 14 229 @Vermont L 59 - 66 53% -7  0% 6 - 7 D+ -8 D -6 F C D D+ -4 A- D- F+
 Mon, Dec 29 286 @Sacred Heart W 80 - 72 66% +8  99% 7 - 7 3 - 0 C+ +4 B- +5 C+ F+ C+ C -1 D+ D- C+
 Fri, Jan 2 284 Mount St. Mary's W 75 - 65 83% +4  74% 8 - 7 4 - 0 C -0 D+ -2 D D+ C- B- +2 A D+ C+
 Sun, Jan 4 319 Manhattan W 73 - 66 88% +4  80% 9 - 7 5 - 0 D+ -6 F+ -9 C F B- B- +3 B- B- D
 Fri, Jan 9 191 @Siena W 63 - 59 46% +9  94% 10 - 7 6 - 0 B- +5 B +6 C+ D+ A- C+ +0 B F B-
 Sun, Jan 11 235 @St. Peter's L 63 - 76 54% -9  0% 10 - 8 6 - 1 D- -14 D+ -3 F C+ C F -13 F F A
 Sat, Jan 17 192 Quinnipiac W 83 - 71 68% +12  90% 11 - 8 7 - 1 B- +7 A +12 A B+ C- D+ -4 B+ F+ F+
 Mon, Jan 19 181 @Marist W 68 - 55 43% +6  88% 12 - 8 8 - 1 A- +15 B- +4 B F C A+ +12 A+ D+ B
 Thu, Jan 22 249 @Iona L 60 - 61 57% -1  29% 12 - 9 8 - 2 C- -3 D -6 D- B F B- +3 B- C C+
 Sat, Jan 24 235 St. Peter's W 67 - 59 75% +11  97% 13 - 9 9 - 2 C +1 D+ -3 D+ D B B +5 A+ F A+
 Sun, Feb 1 286 Sacred Heart W 75 - 58 83% +8  93% 14 - 9 10 - 2 B- +7 C- -1 F A- A+ A +9 B+ B- A+
 Thu, Feb 5 284 @Mount St. Mary's W 87 - 70 65% +10  90% 15 - 9 11 - 2 B+ +13 A- +11 A+ F C C+ +2 C+ D- D
 Sat, Feb 7 356 @Rider W 73 - 47 86% +16  98% 16 - 9 12 - 2 B+ +14 B+ +8 B A+ F A+ +12 A+ F+ D-
 Thu, Feb 12 181 Marist W 81 - 56 66% +6  55% 17 - 9 13 - 2 A +21 A +13 A+ F A A +9 A+ F B-
 Sun, Feb 15 192 @Quinnipiac W 56 - 49 46% +0  54% 18 - 9 14 - 2 B- +8 F -12 F F C A+ +20 A+ F A+
 Fri, Feb 20 191 Siena W 79 - 72 OT 68% -1  37% 19 - 9 15 - 2 C+ +2 B+ +9 C+ C+ A- D -6 D F+ B
 Sun, Feb 22 249 Iona W 73 - 65 76%
 Fri, Feb 27 344 @Canisius W 68 - 59 81%
 Sun, Mar 1 336 @Niagara W 68 - 59 80%
Totals 21 - 10 17 - 3 +0 C- -2 F D B C+ +2 D+ A- B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D C D+ D 40% 22% 47% B D+ D- C- D C+ B A- B+ C+ B+ D+ B B 42% 23% 35% C B F C+ F+ B D C+ D+
1.06 53% 39% 32% -3 +1 0.97 24% 1.0 .24 16% .34 79% .27 1.06 52% 41% 31% -4 0 0.95 41% 1.0 .41 19% .35 72% .25
Nov
3		 South Dakota St. F F F F 49% 0% 51% A+ F D F F C- A+ A A+ C A- B F B- 44% 23% 33% C+ B- F B- F+ A- F F+ F
0.94 38% 28% -15 +3 0.80 23% 0.7 .15 16% .46 81% .37 1.07 48% 33% 41% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.0 .39 20% .46 77% .36
Nov
6		 Auburn F F+ F F F 31% 12% 57% B F D D D- B A+ D+ A+ F C- F A B- 34% 21% 45% A- B F F+ F D+ F B- F
0.84 47% 17% 25% -14 +1 0.76 23% 0.9 .20 16% .42 71% .30 1.41 63% 60% 29% +3 0 1.06 60% 1.2 .74 12% .62 73% .45
Nov
11		 Tarleton St. F D- F F F 42% 9% 49% B+ F B F F+ F A- A- A+ C C F A+ F+ 45% 37% 18% B+ D F A- D A- F B F
0.84 53% 25% 18% -15 +2 0.76 38% 0.7 .26 29% .46 79% .36 1.03 57% 58% 22% +4 -2 1.06 42% 0.8 .35 23% .44 72% .32
Nov
15		 Boston University A+ C+ F A+ A+ 33% 13% 53% C+ A+ B D+ C+ F C+ A+ A- D- D- D F F+ 27% 20% 53% B+ D C+ F F D- F+ A C-
1.41 60% 17% 67% +24 +1 1.51 35% 1.0 .35 17% .30 88% .26 1.23 67% 44% 42% +10 -1 1.20 25% 1.6 .41 16% .35 63% .22
Nov
19		 Maine C+ B- A+ F F+ 40% 14% 47% B- D- D A+ B+ B A+ D- A+ F D B A+ B 47% 18% 35% D- B- F D F A+ F D- F
1.16 65% 50% 20% -5 +1 0.93 32% 1.5 .48 16% .60 65% .38 1.05 63% 33% 17% -8 +1 0.88 47% 1.1 .53 27% .67 70% .47
Nov
21		 Florida F D- F F F 40% 16% 44% A F D+ D- D+ C F+ A+ D+ B- A+ D+ D- A+ 40% 19% 40% A- A+ F D F B F+ D- F
0.69 45% 13% 18% -20 +1 0.64 17% 0.6 .10 17% .20 82% .16 1.22 37% 44% 37% -6 0 0.91 51% 1.2 .59 18% .43 78% .34
Nov
28		 Penn D- C B F F 40% 16% 44% B- F F+ C- D- A+ C- A C+ D+ C F A+ D+ 46% 29% 25% D+ D+ F+ F+ F C- F A+ B-
0.96 61% 44% 12% -12 +1 0.79 23% 0.9 .21 7% .24 73% .17 1.13 55% 64% 25% +3 -1 1.06 37% 1.2 .43 16% .40 52% .21
Nov
29		 Hofstra F F F D+ D- 30% 11% 59% B+ D F+ F F C+ D- A+ C- D+ F A+ F C- 33% 24% 43% C C- D A- C+ A F F F
0.86 44% 17% 31% -9 +1 0.85 22% 0.4 .10 13% .24 86% .21 1.16 69% 8% 43% +2 -1 1.04 37% 0.9 .33 21% .38 85% .32
Nov
30		 La Salle C- D- D C D+ 34% 17% 49% C D+ C- D D+ B- D B+ D+ B+ D+ A+ B- C 48% 21% 31% D- C F B+ F+ A+ F+ F+ F
1.04 50% 33% 35% -3 0 0.96 27% 1.0 .27 16% .21 73% .15 0.95 60% 22% 31% -4 +1 0.95 50% 0.8 .41 30% .41 78% .32
Dec
4		 Rider F+ D A+ C+ C- 34% 12% 54% D+ C- F C F B- F D- F D- A- F B- D+ 52% 25% 23% F D F F F A+ F+ A- D+
1.08 53% 67% 37% +4 +1 1.12 15% 1.0 .15 13% .20 64% .13 1.05 43% 55% 30% -5 0 0.93 48% 1.2 .59 24% .33 63% .21
Dec
7		 Fairfield C- C B A B+ 40% 16% 44% D+ B F F F B- A+ A A+ B B- A F+ C 38% 23% 38% C C F A+ B A F+ A D+
1.15 59% 43% 42% +6 +1 1.16 15% 0.5 .08 14% .49 81% .40 0.98 50% 27% 39% -3 0 0.96 40% 0.6 .25 20% .31 63% .20
Dec
10		 Princeton D C- F F F 43% 14% 43% B- F+ F D F A A- A+ A+ A- A+ A+ B- A+ 55% 9% 36% F A+ F C F C F F+ F
1.02 58% 17% 26% -8 +1 0.89 10% 1.0 .10 9% .38 90% .34 0.97 25% 0% 31% -23 +3 0.61 45% 1.0 .45 17% .44 81% .36
Dec
14		 Vermont D F A+ F F 48% 11% 41% A F C C- C D C A B- D+ F+ F A+ A- 38% 19% 43% C A- F B- D- F+ F F F
1.01 43% 60% 28% -9 +2 0.89 27% 1.0 .27 15% .32 81% .26 1.13 69% 50% 17% -5 0 0.93 34% 0.9 .31 12% .47 83% .39
Dec
29		 Sacred Heart B- C- D A C+ 35% 6% 59% B- C+ F C+ F+ C+ A+ D+ A+ C C F C- D 30% 21% 49% B- D+ F B+ D- C+ D A C-
1.21 59% 33% 41% +7 +2 1.18 22% 1.1 .25 14% .40 70% .28 1.09 57% 50% 35% +3 -1 1.06 37% 0.9 .34 20% .32 71% .23
Jan
2		 Mount St. Mary's D+ D+ C F D- 36% 12% 52% B+ D F A+ D+ C- A+ B A+ B- B F A+ A+ 54% 13% 33% D- A F A+ D+ C+ F C- F
1.08 53% 40% 27% -7 +1 0.90 19% 1.3 .26 14% .67 78% .52 0.93 52% 50% 13% -12 +2 0.83 43% 0.8 .32 23% .52 68% .35
Jan
4		 Manhattan F+ A+ A F D+ 41% 8% 51% B+ C F D F B- A+ F B B- A+ F A+ B 51% 28% 21% D+ B- D A+ B- D A+ F A+
1.09 75% 50% 28% +3 +2 1.12 17% 1.0 .17 13% .34 65% .22 0.98 41% 56% 25% -6 0 0.89 31% 0.8 .26 13% .14 88% .12
Jan
9		 Siena B F F A+ C- 48% 9% 43% A+ C+ C D- D+ A- C- B+ C+ C+ C- C- A B- 30% 33% 37% B+ B F A F B- A D A-
1.16 43% 25% 47% 0 +2 1.07 32% 0.8 .26 13% .28 77% .21 1.09 62% 43% 25% -2 -2 0.93 55% 0.8 .42 18% .20 78% .16
Jan
11		 St. Peter's D+ C- A+ F F 43% 17% 39% C+ F C B C+ C C+ A- B+ F F C+ F F 38% 38% 24% A F F D F A F B+ F
1.02 55% 50% 11% -13 +1 0.78 35% 1.2 .41 19% .42 81% .34 1.23 64% 36% 56% +9 -2 1.16 52% 1.1 .55 23% .63 70% .44
Jan
17		 Quinnipiac A F F A+ A 37% 9% 53% B A D+ A+ B+ C- A+ B- A+ D+ A- C+ A A 53% 24% 22% D- B+ B- F F+ F+ F D F
1.24 44% 25% 52% +8 +1 1.21 30% 1.4 .41 18% .49 74% .36 1.06 46% 33% 27% -10 +1 0.84 29% 1.4 .42 13% .45 73% .33
Jan
19		 Marist B- A- A+ F B 39% 24% 37% C+ B F C F C A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ B+ A+ A+ 41% 27% 32% C- A+ F+ B+ D+ B F F F
1.05 69% 60% 20% +2 0 1.05 13% 1.0 .13 19% .51 81% .42 0.85 50% 33% 14% -14 -1 0.73 32% 1.0 .32 20% .43 86% .37
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
22		 Iona D F B D+ F+ 48% 16% 36% B D- B+ C+ B F C- F D B- A+ A+ F B- 24% 18% 58% B B- F+ A C C+ D- B D+
0.99 48% 43% 31% -6 +1 0.93 41% 1.0 .41 22% .25 58% .15 1.01 27% 25% 42% -3 -1 0.96 31% 0.8 .25 18% .30 67% .20
Jan
24		 St. Peter's D+ F F A+ D- 56% 7% 37% A D+ F A D B A- A+ A+ B A- A- A+ A+ 36% 22% 42% C A+ F A F A+ F B F
1.06 39% 0% 47% -6 +3 0.95 25% 1.3 .32 17% .48 88% .42 0.93 44% 30% 16% -18 0 0.64 60% 0.8 .47 25% .51 71% .36
Feb
1		 Sacred Heart C- D F F F 46% 12% 42% B F B- A A- A+ B+ A+ A+ A A F A- B 33% 33% 35% A B+ A F+ B- A+ F F F
1.18 57% 17% 24% -10 +2 0.86 36% 1.3 .46 8% .32 84% .27 0.91 46% 46% 29% -4 -2 0.90 19% 1.2 .23 25% .38 89% .33
Feb
5		 Mount St. Mary's A- A- A+ A A+ 30% 10% 60% B A+ F C- F C A- A+ A+ C+ A+ F+ F B- 52% 15% 33% D+ C+ F+ C- D- D F A+ F
1.23 67% 60% 40% +10 +1 1.24 13% 1.0 .13 14% .41 84% .35 0.99 42% 43% 40% -5 +2 0.96 35% 1.1 .38 20% .51 55% .28
Feb
7		 Rider B+ A A D+ B- 59% 10% 31% B+ B A A+ A+ F A+ A A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 32% 41% 27% A- A+ C- F F+ D- F A+ F+
1.27 70% 50% 33% +8 +3 1.23 45% 1.3 .60 19% .45 76% .34 0.82 14% 39% 17% -21 -3 0.55 33% 1.1 .37 14% .47 52% .24
Feb
12		 Marist A A+ A+ A A+ 40% 14% 46% A- A+ F F F A A D- B A A+ A+ A+ A+ 47% 23% 30% F+ A+ F F F B- C- A C+
1.22 75% 57% 39% +13 +1 1.30 14% 0.5 .07 14% .44 64% .28 0.85 36% 27% 21% -18 0 0.66 33% 1.4 .45 20% .26 71% .19
Feb
15		 Quinnipiac F D- B- F F 48% 19% 33% C+ F F C F C A A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 30% 41% 30% A+ A+ F A- F A+ F D F
0.86 50% 38% 21% -10 +1 0.83 11% 1.0 .11 17% .37 90% .33 0.75 46% 11% 8% -26 -3 0.43 52% 0.9 .45 25% .39 74% .28
Feb
20		 Siena B+ F D A+ C 40% 13% 48% B+ C+ C C+ C+ A- A+ A+ A+ D B F C+ D+ 38% 23% 40% D D F C- F+ B F D- F
1.25 37% 33% 48% +1 +1 1.06 32% 1.0 .32 13% .47 100% .47 1.14 53% 67% 31% +3 0 1.08 38% 1.0 .38 19% .47 79% .37



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1.1 11.0 37.7 50.2 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 1.1 11.0 37.7 50.2 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 50.2    50.2
17-3 100.0% 37.7    37.7
16-4 100.0% 11.0    11.0
15-5 100.0% 1.1    1.0 0.1
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 99.9 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 50.2% 28.7% 28.7% 14.0 0.1 2.8 8.7 2.8 0.0 35.8
17-3 37.7% 25.3% 25.3% 14.6 0.2 3.6 5.3 0.4 28.2
16-4 11.0% 22.9% 22.9% 14.9 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.3 8.5
15-5 1.1% 21.2% 21.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 26.7% 26.7% 0.0% 14.3 73.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 14.4% 100.0% 14.0 0.6 19.1 60.9 19.2 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 15.0%
Lose Out 0.4%