Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.5 #201
Expected Predictive Rating +0.3 #158
Pace 62.3 #338
Improvement +6.8 #7

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #251 D D C+ B B
Defense #146 C+ F+ B- D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #165 1.03 #325 -2.2 #260
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #323 0.72 #227 -3.2 #327
Three Pointers 48% #49 0.92 #303 +1.1 #139
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #306 -4.3 #310
Freethrows 0.33 #93 78% #20 0.26 #47
Second Chance 24.5% #336 0.97 #251 0.24 #333
Turnovers 16.0% #130
Total Offense -3.0 #251

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #99 1.07 #77 -0.2 #182
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #94 0.85 #314 -1.6 #305
Three Pointers 35% #334 0.94 #79 +4.4 #28
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #104 +2.6 #95
Freethrows 0.34 #296 73% #228 0.25 #294
Second Chance 41.4% #365 1.00 #130 0.41 #353
Turnovers 18.9% #60
Total Defense +0.4 #146

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #58 -0.1% #157
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.9% #332 -4.2% #91
Possession Length 18.3 #289 18.3 #318
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #171 0.12 #35
Improvement +2.9 #53 +3.9 #26

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.9% 15.8% 13.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.2
.500 or above 99.2% 99.8% 98.4%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 58.2% 69.2% 43.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 1.0%
First Round14.6% 15.6% 13.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mount St. Mary's (Away) - 57.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 34 - 74 - 9
Quad 416 - 420 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 177 South Dakota St. L 66 - 75 45% -2  0 - 1 -10 -8 F F C -2 B- D- B+
 Thu, Nov 6 28 @Auburn L 57 - 95 4% -18  0 - 2 -19 -7 F D B -14 B F D+
 Tue, Nov 11 226 @Tarleton St. L 62 - 76 43% -5  0 - 3 -15 -13 F D- F -1 D C- A-
 Sat, Nov 15 290 @Boston University W 91 - 79 57% +10  1 - 3 +8 +21 A+ C+ F -12 D- F D
 Wed, Nov 19 346 Maine W 72 - 65 87% +3  2 - 3 -8 +6 D B+ B- -13 C+ F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 5 @Florida L 45 - 80 1% -24  2 - 4 -10 -12 F D+ C -0 A F B
 Fri, Nov 28 180 @Penn L 65 - 77 35% -4  2 - 5 -10 -5 F D A+ -5 C- F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 126 Hofstra L 58 - 78 32% -12  2 - 6 -18 -12 D F C -6 C B- A
 Sun, Nov 30 214 La Salle W 66 - 60 52% +4  3 - 6 +3 -1 D+ D+ B- +4 C D- A+
 Thu, Dec 4 352 Rider W 68 - 66 89% +1  4 - 6 1 - 0 -14 -5 C F C -8 D F A+
 Sun, Dec 7 272 Fairfield W 74 - 63 74% +10  5 - 6 2 - 0 +2 +2 B- F C+ +1 C- B A-
 Wed, Dec 10 213 @Princeton W 59 - 56 40% +2  6 - 6 +3 -1 D F A+ +4 A+ F C
 Sun, Dec 14 211 @Vermont L 59 - 66 40% -7  6 - 7 -7 -3 F+ C D- -5 B+ D- D-
 Mon, Dec 29 276 @Sacred Heart W 80 - 72 53% +8  7 - 7 3 - 0 +5 +8 C+ D- C+ -3 D+ D- C+
 Fri, Jan 2 289 Mount St. Mary's W 75 - 65 77% +4  8 - 7 4 - 0 -0 +0 D D+ C -1 A- D+ C+
 Sun, Jan 4 327 Manhattan W 73 - 66 84% +4  9 - 7 5 - 0 -6 -6 C F B- -0 B- C D
 Fri, Jan 9 174 @Siena W 63 - 59 33% +9  10 - 7 6 - 0 +6 +9 C+ D+ A- -2 B F B-
 Sun, Jan 11 235 @St. Peter's L 63 - 76 44% -9  10 - 8 6 - 1 -14 +0 F B- C -16 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 186 Quinnipiac W 83 - 71 59% +12  11 - 8 7 - 1 +7 +13 A- B C- -5 A- D- D
 Mon, Jan 19 161 @Marist W 68 - 55 30% +6  12 - 8 8 - 1 +16 +8 B+ F C +9 A+ D+ B-
 Thu, Jan 22 231 @Iona L 60 - 61 44% -1  12 - 9 8 - 2 -2 -2 D+ B F -0 B- C C
 Sat, Jan 24 235 St. Peter's W 67 - 59 67% +11  13 - 9 9 - 2 +1 -0 D+ D+ B- +2 A+ F A+
 Sun, Feb 1 276 Sacred Heart W 75 - 58 74% +8  14 - 9 10 - 2 +8 +2 F A- A+ +7 B B- A+
 Thu, Feb 5 289 @Mount St. Mary's W 67 - 65 58%
 Sat, Feb 7 352 @Rider W 70 - 63 75%
 Thu, Feb 12 161 Marist W 63 - 62 53%
 Sun, Feb 15 186 @Quinnipiac L 69 - 73 36%
 Fri, Feb 20 174 Siena W 68 - 66 56%
 Sun, Feb 22 231 Iona W 71 - 67 66%
 Fri, Feb 27 345 @Canisius W 67 - 61 72%
 Sun, Mar 1 349 @Niagara W 67 - 61 72%
Totals 19 - 12 15 - 5 -3 -3 D D C+ +0 C+ F+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 4.4 19.8 21.3 10.4 2.2 58.2 1st
2nd 0.0 2.0 12.0 6.5 0.5 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.4 5.4 5.0 0.1 10.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 3.7 0.4 5.9 4th
5th 0.4 2.1 0.6 0.0 3.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 0.9 4.7 11.8 21.7 26.4 21.8 10.4 2.2 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 2.2    2.2
17-3 100.0% 10.4    10.3 0.1
16-4 97.8% 21.3    17.3 3.9 0.1
15-5 74.8% 19.8    6.7 9.7 3.1 0.2
14-6 20.1% 4.4    0.3 1.1 2.0 0.8 0.1
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 58.2% 58.2 36.9 14.8 5.2 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 2.2% 21.3% 21.3% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.8
17-3 10.4% 17.8% 17.8% 14.5 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.1 8.6
16-4 21.8% 19.9% 19.9% 14.9 0.0 1.0 2.7 0.6 17.4
15-5 26.4% 15.1% 15.1% 15.2 0.3 2.5 1.1 22.4
14-6 21.7% 13.0% 13.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 1.5 1.2 18.9
13-7 11.8% 9.3% 9.3% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 10.7
12-8 4.7% 6.1% 6.1% 15.8 0.1 0.2 4.4
11-9 0.9% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.1 0.9
10-10 0.1% 0.1
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 14.9% 14.9% 0.0% 15.1 85.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 13.7 2.1 37.9 44.2 15.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%