Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.2 #123
Expected Predictive Rating +3.5 #117
Pace 65.8 #274
Improvement +0.7 #141

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #133 B+ D- B- D- D-
Defense #131 B+ C+ C- D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #344 1.29 #61 -2.7 #273
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #79 0.79 #130 +2.6 #65
Three Pointers 44% #138 1.18 #18 +5.0 #39
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #58 +4.9 #58
Freethrows 14.1 #327 70% #253 9.9 #324
Second Chance 30.3% #200 0.82 #356 0.25 #314
Turnovers 15.6% #120
Total Offense +1.1 #133

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #102 1.15 #170 -1.6 #237
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #87 0.65 #52 +0.0 #182
Three Pointers 35% #326 0.84 #25 +6.1 #14
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #54 +4.5 #53
Freethrows 18.7 #255 75% #283 14.0 #81
Second Chance 28.1% #91 1.09 #237 0.31 #146
Turnovers 15.9% #219
Total Defense +1.0 #131

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.6% #326 -0.4% #135
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.4% #27 -8.4% #51
Possession Length 18.4 #285 17.9 #282
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #222 0.13 #40
Improvement -0.2 #204 +1.0 #119

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.5% 17.5% 12.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.9 13.3
.500 or above 78.4% 89.0% 70.9%
.500 or above in Conference 89.4% 95.8% 84.9%
Conference Champion 18.1% 27.6% 11.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round14.4% 17.5% 12.2%
Second Round1.0% 1.4% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Away) - 41.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 38 - 69 - 11
Quad 48 - 217 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 12 263 @Evansville W 77 - 72 69%  +8  1 - 0 +2 +5 A- F B+ -3 D A+ D-
 Wed, Nov 19 1 @Michigan L 61 - 86 1%  -13  1 - 1 +5 -2 C C D+ +9 A+ B+ A-
 Sun, Nov 23 91 Murray St. W 90 - 87 35%  +3  2 - 1 +9 +11 B- A+ B+ -2 C+ B+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 70 George Washington L 79 - 92 28%  -10  2 - 2 -5 +5 B B+ D- -9 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 87 McNeese St. L 62 - 72 33%  +3  2 - 3 -3 +6 A+ F A+ -12 A+ F D-
 Mon, Dec 1 113 UAB W 76 - 61 56%  +4  3 - 3 +16 +8 C A+ B- +9 A+ F A
 Sun, Dec 7 73 Belmont L 62 - 83 39%  -8  3 - 4 -16 -10 F C A+ -5 B- B F
 Wed, Dec 17 162 Kennesaw St. W 68 - 67 70%  +7  4 - 4 1 - 0 -2 -5 D+ F F +3 A+ C C
 Mon, Dec 29 11 @Houston L 60 - 69 4%  -5  4 - 5 +13 +10 A+ D F +2 A- A D-
 Fri, Jan 2 228 Louisiana Tech W 88 - 51 80%  +19  5 - 5 2 - 0 +30 +33 A+ F A+ +5 C B A+
 Sun, Jan 4 134 Sam Houston St. W 68 - 67 64%  +5  6 - 5 3 - 0 -0 -5 B F B +4 C B+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 244 @UTEP L 80 - 83 OT 65%  +5  6 - 6 3 - 1 -5 +5 D+ F B -10 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 136 @New Mexico St. L 70 - 72 41% 
 Wed, Jan 14 228 @Louisiana Tech W 66 - 63 61% 
 Sat, Jan 17 192 Missouri St. W 72 - 65 75% 
 Sat, Jan 24 208 @Jacksonville St. W 69 - 67 55% 
 Wed, Jan 28 99 Liberty W 72 - 71 50% 
 Sat, Jan 31 155 Western Kentucky W 79 - 74 69% 
 Wed, Feb 4 164 Florida International W 79 - 73 70% 
 Sat, Feb 7 277 @Delaware W 69 - 63 70% 
 Thu, Feb 12 162 @Kennesaw St. L 77 - 78 49% 
 Sat, Feb 14 155 @Western Kentucky L 76 - 77 47% 
 Wed, Feb 18 134 @Sam Houston St. L 75 - 77 41% 
 Sat, Feb 21 277 Delaware W 72 - 60 86% 
 Thu, Feb 26 244 UTEP W 74 - 64 82% 
 Sat, Feb 28 136 New Mexico St. W 73 - 69 62% 
 Thu, Mar 5 164 @Florida International L 76 - 77 49% 
 Sat, Mar 7 192 @Missouri St. W 69 - 68 55% 
Totals 16 - 12 13 - 7 +2 +1 B+ D- B- +1 B+ C+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.2 5.0 5.0 2.9 1.0 0.2 18.1 1st
2nd 0.1 2.2 7.2 9.4 5.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 26.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 6.4 6.5 2.3 0.2 0.0 17.1 3rd
4th 0.6 4.5 5.1 1.3 0.1 11.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 4.5 1.4 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 3.6 1.3 0.1 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 1.6 0.2 4.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.8 5.9 8.7 12.3 15.2 15.9 15.0 10.9 6.9 3.3 1.0 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
18-2 98.6% 1.0    1.0 0.1
17-3 87.6% 2.9    2.3 0.5
16-4 72.5% 5.0    3.6 1.3 0.1
15-5 45.9% 5.0    2.6 2.1 0.4 0.0
14-6 21.2% 3.2    0.9 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-7 5.3% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.1% 18.1 10.6 5.8 1.4 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.2% 51.6% 51.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
18-2 1.0% 40.7% 40.7% 11.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.6
17-3 3.3% 31.1% 31.1% 12.2 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.3
16-4 6.9% 24.6% 24.6% 12.6 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.2
15-5 10.9% 22.8% 22.8% 12.8 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 8.5
14-6 15.0% 19.6% 19.6% 13.0 0.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 12.0
13-7 15.9% 15.5% 15.5% 13.2 0.3 1.4 0.8 0.1 13.5
12-8 15.2% 11.9% 11.9% 13.6 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 13.4
11-9 12.3% 7.2% 7.2% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 11.4
10-10 8.7% 4.6% 4.6% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 8.3
9-11 5.9% 2.7% 2.7% 15.4 0.1 0.1 5.7
8-12 2.8% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.7
7-13 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
6-14 0.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 13.1 85.5 0.0%