Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.0 #154
Expected Predictive Rating +0.5 #154
Pace 64.9 #284
Improvement -3.8 #331

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #204 C+ D+ C+ F+ C-
Defense #126 C+ B D+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #295 1.20 #124 -1.8 #247
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #130 0.75 #182 +0.7 #139
Three Pointers 43% #143 1.10 #61 +2.9 #79
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #123 +1.9 #122
Freethrows 0.25 #333 65% #352 0.16 #354
Second Chance 29.8% #213 0.87 #343 0.26 #288
Turnovers 16.0% #136
Total Offense -1.5 #204

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #66 1.13 #144 -2.0 #248
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #162 0.68 #58 +0.7 #135
Three Pointers 36% #311 0.97 #111 +3.4 #52
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #107 +2.1 #107
Freethrows 0.29 #165 74% #291 0.22 #190
Second Chance 25.5% #26 1.03 #182 0.26 #55
Turnovers 15.0% #282
Total Defense +1.5 #126

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #261 0.5% #211
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.8% #94 -4.5% #87
Possession Length 17.9 #251 17.9 #283
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #217 0.12 #37
Improvement -3.8 #341 +0.0 #191

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.4% 7.1% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.4
.500 or above 46.1% 55.9% 26.2%
.500 or above in Conference 72.9% 82.7% 53.0%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 1.2%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round6.3% 7.1% 4.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Home) - 67.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 57 - 12
Quad 47 - 415 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 12 269 @Evansville W 77 - 72 62% +8  1 - 0 +2 +4 B- F B- -2 C- B D-
 Wed, Nov 19 1 @Michigan L 61 - 86 1% -13  1 - 1 +3 -4 C- C C +9 A+ B+ B-
 Sun, Nov 23 106 Murray St. W 90 - 87 34% +3  2 - 1 +7 +9 C+ A- B -2 C B+ F+
 Mon, Nov 24 79 George Washington L 79 - 92 25% -10  2 - 2 -6 +6 B- B+ D+ -11 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 85 McNeese St. L 62 - 72 26% +3  2 - 3 -3 +6 B+ F A -12 A+ F D
 Mon, Dec 1 120 UAB W 76 - 61 51% +4  3 - 3 +15 +7 C A C+ +8 A+ F A-
 Sun, Dec 7 74 Belmont L 62 - 83 32% -8  3 - 4 -16 -11 F C- A+ -5 C+ B F
 Wed, Dec 17 142 Kennesaw St. W 68 - 67 57% +7  4 - 4 1 - 0 -1 -6 D F F +5 A+ C B-
 Mon, Dec 29 6 @Houston L 60 - 69 2% -5  4 - 5 +16 +10 A+ D+ F +4 A- A- D+
 Fri, Jan 2 215 Louisiana Tech W 88 - 51 72% +19  5 - 5 2 - 0 +31 +32 A+ F A +6 C A- A
 Sun, Jan 4 108 Sam Houston St. W 68 - 67 47% +5  6 - 5 3 - 0 +2 -3 B- F B+ +5 C B- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 257 @UTEP L 80 - 83 OT 59% +5  6 - 6 3 - 1 -5 +6 C D- B- -11 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 167 @New Mexico St. W 59 - 55 41% +0  7 - 6 4 - 1 +6 -9 D- F B- +16 A- A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 14 215 @Louisiana Tech L 58 - 59 51% +10  7 - 7 4 - 2 -1 -8 D C+ D- +6 A- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 182 Missouri St. W 90 - 87 2OT 67% +0  8 - 7 5 - 2 -2 +8 A+ A+ F -10 C- C D-
 Fri, Jan 23 191 @Jacksonville St. L 58 - 75 46% -9  8 - 8 5 - 3 -16 -4 D- D+ B+ -14 F A+ D-
 Thu, Jan 29 89 Liberty L 65 - 81 38% -12  8 - 9 5 - 4 -13 +0 D- A C -16 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 156 Western Kentucky L 60 - 65 62% -1  8 - 10 5 - 5 -8 -9 C- D- C +1 D+ A+ D
 Wed, Feb 4 188 Florida International W 77 - 72 67%
 Sat, Feb 7 286 @Delaware W 67 - 63 65%
 Thu, Feb 12 142 @Kennesaw St. L 73 - 77 36%
 Sat, Feb 14 156 @Western Kentucky L 70 - 73 40%
 Wed, Feb 18 108 @Sam Houston St. L 70 - 77 27%
 Sat, Feb 21 286 Delaware W 70 - 60 83%
 Thu, Feb 26 257 UTEP W 71 - 63 78%
 Sat, Feb 28 167 New Mexico St. W 72 - 68 64%
 Thu, Mar 5 188 @Florida International L 74 - 75 46%
 Sat, Mar 7 182 @Missouri St. L 67 - 68 45%
Totals 14 - 14 11 - 9 +0 -1 C+ D+ C+ +1 C+ B D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.2 2.4 4.7 2.2 0.5 9.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.4 8.3 3.5 0.4 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 9.1 5.0 0.3 16.4 4th
5th 0.5 7.3 7.5 0.7 16.0 5th
6th 0.1 3.2 9.2 1.8 0.0 14.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 7.2 3.7 0.2 12.2 7th
8th 0.3 3.5 3.9 0.3 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 3.1 0.4 4.5 9th
10th 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.9 8.4 15.3 22.7 22.1 16.3 8.6 2.7 0.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 9.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.5% 11.9% 11.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-6 2.7% 13.0% 13.0% 12.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.3
13-7 8.6% 14.8% 14.8% 13.1 0.2 0.8 0.3 7.3
12-8 16.3% 10.2% 10.2% 13.4 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.1 14.7
11-9 22.1% 6.5% 6.5% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 20.7
10-10 22.7% 3.9% 3.9% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 21.8
9-11 15.3% 3.2% 3.2% 15.5 0.2 0.2 14.8
8-12 8.4% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.3
7-13 2.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 2.8
6-14 0.6% 0.6
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 13.8 93.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%