Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#120
Expected Predictive Rating+4.9#94
Pace69.0#160
Improvement+0.0#186

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#169
First Shot+0.7#152
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#201
Layup/Dunks+4.3#43
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#348
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#170
Freethrows-0.4#197
Improvement-1.5#278

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#121
First Shot+2.7#92
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#262
Layups/Dunks-1.6#240
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#158
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#17
Freethrows-1.3#274
Improvement+1.6#106
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.6% 13.3% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 13.5
.500 or above 98.5% 99.8% 97.6%
.500 or above in Conference 92.3% 98.5% 88.1%
Conference Champion 22.0% 38.8% 10.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round11.6% 13.3% 10.5%
Second Round0.9% 1.0% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Away) - 40.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 42 - 5
Quad 310 - 512 - 11
Quad 47 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 242   @ Abilene Christian W 79-56 67%     1 - 0 +20.7 +7.4 +12.9
  Nov 13, 2024 230   Evansville W 80-63 80%     2 - 0 +10.6 +3.2 +6.6
  Nov 16, 2024 171   Murray St. L 67-88 69%     2 - 1 -23.7 -5.6 -18.8
  Nov 21, 2024 168   Ohio W 83-81 OT 59%     3 - 1 +2.0 -2.3 +3.9
  Nov 22, 2024 177   South Florida W 95-88 62%     4 - 1 +6.2 +21.9 -15.7
  Nov 24, 2024 94   Bradley L 69-80 37%     4 - 2 -5.2 +5.2 -11.4
  Dec 01, 2024 96   @ UAB W 76-69 31%     5 - 2 +14.4 +4.1 +10.4
  Dec 07, 2024 140   @ Belmont L 79-82 44%     5 - 3 +0.8 +1.3 -0.4
  Dec 16, 2024 161   California Baptist W 75-64 67%     6 - 3 +8.8 -0.5 +9.2
  Dec 19, 2024 110   Lipscomb W 67-65 55%     7 - 3 +3.0 -0.8 +4.0
  Dec 23, 2024 6   @ Tennessee L 64-82 4%     7 - 4 +4.1 +5.6 -1.4
  Jan 02, 2025 243   @ Florida International W 73-69 68%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +1.6 -0.9 +2.4
  Jan 04, 2025 90   @ Liberty L 63-73 27%     8 - 5 1 - 1 -1.3 -1.5 -0.2
  Jan 09, 2025 170   Kennesaw St. W 84-79 68%     9 - 5 2 - 1 +2.4 +4.9 -2.9
  Jan 11, 2025 130   Jacksonville St. W 81-64 62%     10 - 5 3 - 1 +16.3 +6.5 +9.7
  Jan 18, 2025 115   Western Kentucky W 71-57 57%     11 - 5 4 - 1 +14.4 +1.4 +13.1
  Jan 23, 2025 181   @ Sam Houston St. W 77-75 54%     12 - 5 5 - 1 +3.4 +13.2 -9.5
  Jan 25, 2025 113   @ Louisiana Tech L 69-75 37%     12 - 6 5 - 2 -0.3 +0.0 -0.4
  Jan 30, 2025 166   New Mexico St. L 57-61 68%     12 - 7 5 - 3 -6.5 -10.2 +3.3
  Feb 01, 2025 143   UTEP W 71-68 64%     13 - 7 6 - 3 +1.7 +3.4 -1.5
  Feb 06, 2025 130   @ Jacksonville St. L 69-71 40%    
  Feb 08, 2025 170   @ Kennesaw St. L 75-76 48%    
  Feb 15, 2025 115   @ Western Kentucky L 74-77 37%    
  Feb 20, 2025 113   Louisiana Tech W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 181   Sam Houston St. W 77-71 73%    
  Feb 27, 2025 166   @ New Mexico St. L 68-69 48%    
  Mar 01, 2025 143   @ UTEP L 71-72 43%    
  Mar 06, 2025 90   Liberty L 67-68 47%    
  Mar 08, 2025 243   Florida International W 77-67 82%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.3 8.2 8.7 3.2 0.6 22.0 1st
2nd 0.5 8.4 9.0 1.4 0.1 19.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 4.3 11.2 1.7 0.0 17.2 3rd
4th 0.9 9.5 3.0 0.1 13.5 4th
5th 0.1 4.4 6.4 0.2 11.1 5th
6th 1.4 6.0 0.9 8.3 6th
7th 0.4 2.9 2.2 0.0 5.5 7th
8th 0.2 1.1 1.6 0.1 2.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.2 1.6 5.9 13.6 21.6 24.2 18.9 10.1 3.2 0.6 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
14-4 97.8% 3.2    2.9 0.3
13-5 86.0% 8.7    5.5 2.9 0.3
12-6 43.4% 8.2    1.5 3.8 2.3 0.6
11-7 5.3% 1.3    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.0% 22.0 10.5 7.2 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.6% 32.8% 32.8% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
14-4 3.2% 20.5% 20.5% 12.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 2.6
13-5 10.1% 17.7% 17.7% 12.9 0.5 1.1 0.3 8.3
12-6 18.9% 14.7% 14.7% 13.2 0.3 1.7 0.8 0.0 16.1
11-7 24.2% 12.1% 12.1% 13.4 0.3 1.3 1.3 0.1 21.3
10-8 21.6% 9.3% 9.3% 13.7 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.2 19.6
9-9 13.6% 7.1% 7.1% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 12.7
8-10 5.9% 4.2% 4.2% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.7
7-11 1.6% 3.2% 3.2% 15.0 0.1 1.5
6-12 0.2% 0.2
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 1.6 5.4 4.0 0.6 88.4 0.0%