Navy
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.2 154
Results Rating +1.4 138
Pace 64.6 283
Improvement +5.6 19

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 233 C- C D+ B- C-
Defense C+ 106 B- C+ C+ B B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 140 D+ 55% 266 -0.6 204
2 Pt. Jumpers 44% 113 C+ 40% 112 +2.0 77
Three Pointers 35% 294 C- 33% 224 -3.3 293
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 244 C- -1.4 224
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 231
Second Chance C 30.3% 181 C+ 1.05 144 C 0.32 159
Turnovers D+ 18.5% 291
Freethrows B- 0.34 82 C+ 74% 133 B- 0.25 78
Total Offense C- -2.2 233

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B+ 60% 30 C- 11.7% 225
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A+ 60% 1 C- 5.9% 244
Three Pointers B- 88% 99 F+ 1.8% 340
Total A- 67% 16 D 6.8% 302

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 340 D+ 62% 295 -3.1 78
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 69 C 38% 200 +1.4 299
Three Pointers 45% 66 B+ 30% 38 -0.5 157
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -1.0 37 C+ -1.1 134
1st FG Attempt B- 0.98 112
Second Chance C 30.4% 180 B- 0.97 86 C+ 0.29 127
Turnovers C+ 17.4% 141
Freethrows B 0.25 38 D 75% 320 B 0.19 63
Total Defense C+ +2.5 106

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 286 C- 10.2% 202
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 25% 171 C 5.1% 157
Three Pointers C- 85% 225 C+ 1.1% 119
Total C- 57% 213 C- 4.9% 230

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.3 272 17.5 227
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 233 0.14 83
Improvement +3.0 #59 +2.6 #57

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 179 157 136
Results Rating Rank 165 143 105
Conference Record 15 - 3 17 - 1 17 - 1
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47% 48% 44%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round47% 48% 44%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Away) - 73.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 11 - 4
Quad 423 - 324 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 277 @Presbyterian W 76 - 55 64% +16  88% 1 - 0 A- +17 B +6 C+ C B+ A+ +13 A- A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 7 85 Yale L 68 - 97 36% -14  17% 1 - 1 F -25 F -15 D+ D F D- -8 C- F D+
 Tue, Nov 11 115 @Penn St. L 71 - 80 29% -6  6% 1 - 2 C- -3 D+ -2 D C+ F C -1 A- F D+
 Tue, Nov 18 27 @North Carolina L 61 - 73 6% -10  0% 1 - 3 B- +6 D- -7 F+ D A+ A+ +13 B A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 22 318 NJIT W 86 - 70 88% +10  92% 2 - 3 C+ +3 B+ +8 B+ D+ B- D+ -4 A- F+ D-
 Wed, Nov 26 364 Gardner-Webb W 84 - 51 95% +16  96% 3 - 3 B+ +14 B- +4 D+ A+ F A+ +12 A- B- A-
 Fri, Nov 28 108 @UNC Wilmington L 57 - 87 27% -21  0% 3 - 4 F -23 F -11 F D- D+ F -15 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 287 SE Louisiana L 65 - 69 77% -7  21% 3 - 5 D- -11 D -6 F D+ C+ D -6 F D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 361 @Delaware St. W 66 - 59 90% +9  98% 4 - 5 D+ -7 F -13 F B+ F B+ +5 B+ D+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 351 Air Force W 61 - 56 93% -0  39% 5 - 5 D- -12 F -14 F F B B- +3 A- C+ F+
 Fri, Dec 19 363 Coppin St. W 88 - 55 97% +12  94% 6 - 5 B+ +12 B+ +9 C- A+ D+ B +4 C+ A D+
 Wed, Dec 31 257 Boston University W 82 - 77 79% +5  88% 7 - 5 1 - 0 C- -3 C +1 B+ D- D+ D+ -5 C+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 327 @Holy Cross W 65 - 58 77% +6  92% 8 - 5 2 - 0 C -1 D -5 D F D- B+ +6 A+ F B+
 Wed, Jan 7 330 Bucknell W 76 - 55 90% +7  59% 9 - 5 3 - 0 B- +7 C +0 C A- F A- +8 B A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 322 Lafayette W 76 - 50 89% +20  97% 10 - 5 4 - 0 B+ +13 C- -1 B C- C- A+ +15 A- A+ A-
 Mon, Jan 12 253 @American L 51 - 65 59% -11  0% 10 - 6 4 - 1 F+ -16 F -18 F F F+ C+ +1 B B F
 Sat, Jan 17 307 @Lehigh W 82 - 79 2OT 71% -0  36% 11 - 6 5 - 1 C- -3 D+ -3 D- A- F C -0 B B F
 Wed, Jan 21 327 Holy Cross W 85 - 68 90% +6  85% 12 - 6 6 - 1 C+ +3 B+ +9 C+ A A D+ -4 D F B+
 Sat, Jan 24 338 Army W 84 - 56 91% +12  92% 13 - 6 7 - 1 B+ +13 A- +9 A+ A+ F B+ +7 C- A+ B
 Wed, Jan 28 257 @Boston University W 58 - 50 60% -2  34% 14 - 6 8 - 1 B- +6 F+ -8 C F F A+ +16 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 31 315 Loyola Maryland W 87 - 71 88% +8  87% 15 - 6 9 - 1 C+ +4 A- +11 A+ A+ D- D -6 D C C+
 Wed, Feb 4 322 @Lafayette W 65 - 50 76% +4  82% 16 - 6 10 - 1 B- +8 D -6 F+ D- C A+ +15 C A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 7 253 American W 82 - 73 78% +3  73% 17 - 6 11 - 1 C +1 A- +10 A- C A F+ -9 D D+ B-
 Mon, Feb 9 330 @Bucknell W 76 - 60 79% +9  87% 18 - 6 12 - 1 B- +8 C- -1 F+ A D+ A +9 B+ B F+
 Sat, Feb 14 244 @Colgate W 84 - 80 OT 57% +5  81% 19 - 6 13 - 1 C+ +3 B- +5 B+ F+ C+ C- -3 D D C+
 Wed, Feb 18 307 Lehigh W 72 - 49 86% +11  96% 20 - 6 14 - 1 B+ +11 C- -2 C+ F C+ A+ +15 A+ A- C
 Sat, Feb 21 338 @Army W 81 - 63 81% +11  91% 21 - 6 15 - 1 B +9 B+ +8 D A+ D- B- +3 C- B C+
 Wed, Feb 25 315 @Loyola Maryland W 75 - 68 74%
 Sat, Feb 28 244 Colgate W 74 - 66 77%
Totals 23 - 6 17 - 1 +0 C- -2 A C- C- C+ +2 C- C+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ C+ C- C- 40% 44% 35% C- C- C C+ C D+ B- C+ B- C+ D+ C B+ C+ 31% 24% 45% B+ B- C B- C+ C+ B D B
1.05 55% 40% 33% -1 0 0.98 30% 1.0 .32 18% .34 74% .25 1.05 62% 38% 30% -1 -1 0.98 30% 1.0 .29 17% .25 75% .25
Nov
3		 Presbyterian B B F C+ C+ 54% 15% 30% B C+ C+ C C B+ A+ C- A+ A+ F A+ A+ A 36% 18% 45% D A- B- A+ A+ A- F B F+
1.18 64% 29% 36% +3 +2 1.11 32% 1.0 .32 12% .43 67% .28 0.85 75% 25% 15% -9 0 0.84 29% 0.5 .15 23% .45 64% .28
Nov
7		 Yale F A+ F+ F D+ 41% 30% 30% D+ D+ F B+ D F A+ B A+ D- C- A- F C- 39% 16% 45% C- C- C- F F D+ D+ D- D
0.90 72% 31% 23% -1 -1 0.98 19% 1.2 .23 25% .49 75% .37 1.28 59% 33% 44% +6 +1 1.16 34% 1.5 .51 13% .35 83% .29
Nov
11		 Penn St. D+ C+ C D- D 41% 27% 33% D+ D C- A- C+ F B A+ A C C- B A B+ 36% 30% 34% A+ A- D F F D+ B- D+ C+
1.03 60% 38% 31% 0 -1 1.00 27% 1.4 .38 23% .27 93% .25 1.17 63% 38% 28% -2 -1 0.96 33% 1.5 .52 13% .30 78% .23
Nov
18		 North Carolina D- F F C F 42% 28% 30% B- F+ C+ F D A+ B A+ A A+ A+ F F A- 53% 6% 40% F B A A+ A+ A+ D+ F F+
0.87 40% 18% 33% -14 -1 0.73 27% 0.6 .16 9% .25 81% .20 1.04 44% 67% 42% -1 +3 1.06 26% 0.8 .21 19% .39 77% .30
Nov
22		 NJIT B+ D A+ A+ A- 48% 25% 27% C- B+ C- D+ D+ B- A+ C+ A+ D+ A+ C- B B+ 21% 34% 45% A+ A- D- F+ F+ D- F B- F
1.25 52% 50% 46% +5 0 1.13 32% 1.0 .32 13% .55 73% .40 1.02 27% 39% 29% -9 -3 0.77 31% 1.1 .33 15% .43 68% .29
Nov
26		 Gardner-Webb B- B D+ B C- 28% 26% 46% F D+ A- A+ A+ F B+ A+ A A+ D F A+ B+ 27% 23% 50% A A- B+ D+ B- A- B- F C
1.26 69% 33% 38% +5 -1 1.09 43% 1.6 .70 21% .34 83% .29 0.77 62% 45% 17% -10 -1 0.79 18% 1.0 .18 24% .24 75% .18
Nov
28		 UNC Wilmington F F F+ F F 39% 19% 43% B+ F B F D- D+ D- A+ C- F C- F F F 26% 35% 39% A F F F F A+ B- F+ C
0.87 48% 30% 22% -13 0 0.76 32% 0.6 .18 15% .20 91% .18 1.34 58% 56% 44% +13 -3 1.22 57% 1.4 .79 23% .34 76% .26
Nov
29		 SE Louisiana D C+ F F F 43% 29% 29% C- F F+ B+ D+ C+ A+ F A D F D+ F F 26% 42% 33% A+ F B- F D+ A+ C+ F D
1.00 61% 25% 25% -6 -1 0.88 24% 1.3 .29 19% .53 68% .36 1.07 73% 39% 57% +15 -4 1.26 25% 1.2 .29 26% .31 80% .25
Dec
3		 Delaware St. F F A+ F F 45% 16% 39% C F C- A+ B+ F A+ D+ A+ B+ C- A+ A+ B 28% 40% 32% B+ B+ B+ F D+ F C- B+ C+
0.93 53% 50% 20% -9 +1 0.87 30% 1.6 .47 25% .60 69% .41 0.83 53% 24% 24% -12 -3 0.72 19% 1.1 .21 11% .30 63% .19
Dec
7		 Air Force F F F C+ F 42% 29% 29% C- F F D+ F B D A+ B B- B- D- A+ A- 27% 21% 52% A A- A- F C+ F+ B- A B
0.96 50% 29% 36% -5 -1 0.90 18% 1.0 .18 13% .27 93% .25 0.88 54% 40% 24% -9 -1 0.83 17% 1.3 .22 17% .27 57% .15
Dec
19		 Coppin St. B+ C- A B- C 33% 22% 46% D- C- A B- A+ D+ A+ A A+ B D D+ A+ C- 21% 44% 35% A+ C+ C+ A+ A D+ B D- C+
1.31 60% 50% 38% +6 -1 1.13 47% 1.2 .57 18% .53 83% .44 0.82 60% 38% 24% -5 -4 0.83 26% 0.6 .16 21% .28 73% .21
Dec
31		 Boston University C B- C+ A+ A- 30% 20% 50% D+ B+ C- F D- D+ A+ C A+ D+ C- F B+ C- 27% 34% 39% A+ C+ A+ F B+ F A F B
1.22 62% 44% 45% +11 -1 1.23 29% 0.8 .24 13% .51 73% .38 1.14 60% 58% 32% +6 -3 1.09 13% 1.5 .19 12% .20 83% .17
Jan
3		 Holy Cross D C+ F F F+ 64% 16% 20% A D C F F D- A A+ A+ B+ A+ B B A+ 28% 30% 43% B- A+ F F F B+ C- D+ D+
1.06 62% 29% 22% -2 +3 1.02 29% 0.8 .21 16% .35 83% .29 0.95 31% 36% 30% -11 -2 0.77 33% 1.5 .50 20% .29 79% .22
Jan
7		 Bucknell C B F A+ C 37% 24% 39% C- C B- A- A- F B- B B A- D A+ A B 27% 17% 56% B- B A- A+ A+ C C+ D+ C
1.16 65% 18% 44% +4 -1 1.09 38% 1.3 .47 21% .35 78% .27 0.84 62% 13% 26% -10 0 0.81 19% 0.7 .14 20% .27 79% .21
Jan
10		 Lafayette C- B+ A+ B- B+ 33% 26% 41% D+ B F A+ C- C- A+ F B- A+ D A+ B+ B+ 27% 23% 50% A A- A A+ A+ A- D B C-
1.14 67% 50% 37% +8 -1 1.15 21% 1.6 .32 15% .47 48% .23 0.75 62% 9% 29% -9 -1 0.81 19% 0.3 .05 21% .32 65% .21
Jan
12		 American F F D- F F 38% 23% 40% C- F D- F F F+ A+ C- A+ C+ F F A+ B+ 35% 6% 59% D- B F A+ B F A+ D+ A
0.82 47% 33% 19% -14 0 0.73 25% 0.8 .19 22% .50 71% .35 1.04 68% 67% 22% -6 +2 0.94 37% 0.5 .17 11% .16 78% .13
Jan
17		 Lehigh D+ F A A+ F+ 49% 19% 32% B D- A C A- F C+ D C C F F A+ B- 22% 35% 43% A+ B A D+ B F B F C
1.06 31% 50% 47% -5 +1 0.94 45% 1.0 .45 21% .33 70% .23 1.03 71% 48% 21% -2 -3 0.92 15% 1.0 .15 10% .23 81% .19
Jan
21		 Holy Cross B+ B+ A D C+ 40% 26% 34% D C+ F A+ A A A+ B+ A+ D+ F D B- F 25% 42% 33% A+ D F F F B+ B F C+
1.30 68% 50% 31% +6 0 1.13 20% 2.4 .48 9% .46 78% .35 1.04 75% 45% 31% +6 -4 1.06 28% 1.1 .31 20% .23 83% .19
Jan
24		 Army A- C- A+ A+ A+ 24% 33% 43% F A+ A+ A A+ F B C+ B B+ D- F B- D 17% 20% 63% A+ C- A A+ A+ B C+ A+ B+
1.33 60% 50% 56% +18 -3 1.33 43% 1.4 .61 21% .40 75% .30 0.89 63% 44% 31% -1 -1 0.98 22% 0.5 .11 21% .24 58% .14
Jan
28		 Boston University F+ C- A+ D+ C 44% 22% 33% C C D+ F F F F A+ F A+ A C A A+ 44% 13% 44% D- A+ F A+ C A+ A- B+ A-
1.03 55% 70% 33% +5 0 1.13 27% 0.7 .19 20% .04 100% .04 0.89 47% 40% 29% -8 +1 0.90 36% 0.8 .27 25% .21 67% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Loyola Maryland A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 35% 24% F+ A+ A+ A A+ D- F F F D C+ B+ F F+ 22% 20% 59% A+ D D- A- C C+ A- F B-
1.33 80% 65% 42% +21 -2 1.41 45% 1.4 .64 17% .18 50% .09 1.09 55% 30% 40% +3 -1 1.06 32% 0.8 .26 18% .19 90% .17
Feb
4		 Lafayette D C+ B+ F D- 41% 39% 20% F+ F+ D D D- C D- B D+ A+ D- F A+ C+ 36% 6% 57% D- C A A+ A+ B+ A+ F A
1.02 62% 45% 10% -3 -2 0.92 26% 1.0 .26 14% .24 77% .18 0.79 65% 67% 22% -6 +2 0.94 18% 0.0 .00 20% .12 100% .12
Feb
7		 American A- C A+ A+ A 45% 25% 30% C- A- D+ B+ C A A+ D+ A+ F+ F F+ C- F+ 21% 17% 62% A D F A- D+ B- B+ A+ A
1.27 60% 55% 46% +10 0 1.23 30% 1.1 .33 14% .52 69% .36 1.13 73% 44% 34% +5 -1 1.10 34% 0.8 .26 19% .21 64% .13
Feb
9		 Bucknell C- D+ B- F D- 38% 33% 29% D- F+ B+ A+ A D+ C B C+ A F A+ A+ A 35% 11% 55% D+ B+ A- D+ B F+ A+ F A
1.10 56% 44% 29% -1 -2 0.96 39% 1.3 .52 19% .32 78% .25 0.87 68% 17% 17% -13 +1 0.78 20% 1.1 .23 16% .14 100% .14
Feb
14		 Colgate B- B B A- A- 38% 23% 38% C- B+ D- D- F+ C+ A+ D A+ C- A- A- F D 37% 20% 43% D D B- F D C+ F A F
1.17 65% 42% 40% +7 0 1.15 24% 0.9 .21 14% .47 69% .32 1.12 47% 33% 50% +5 0 1.13 24% 1.4 .32 17% .44 65% .29
Feb
18		 Lehigh C- D A B+ C 45% 20% 35% B- C+ C F F C+ F A+ D A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 35% 33% 33% B+ A+ D- A+ A- C A F B
1.12 52% 50% 39% +2 +1 1.08 34% 0.6 .20 16% .24 85% .20 0.76 59% 25% 19% -11 -2 0.76 26% 0.4 .10 19% .19 80% .15
Feb
21		 Army B+ F C+ B D 38% 27% 35% D D A- A A+ D- A+ A- A+ B- F A+ B+ C- 26% 7% 67% C+ C- B B- B C+ F+ D- F
1.26 50% 40% 38% 0 -1 1.00 40% 1.4 .56 17% .75 80% .60 0.98 75% 0% 29% -3 +1 0.98 26% 0.9 .23 19% .33 76% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 6.8 36.3 56.9 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 6.8 36.3 56.9 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 56.9    56.9
16-2 100.0% 36.3    36.3
15-3 100.0% 6.8    6.8
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 56.9% 49.0% 49.0% 13.9 0.2 6.4 16.9 4.4 0.0 29.0
16-2 36.3% 45.3% 45.3% 14.5 0.0 0.7 7.0 8.2 0.5 19.9
15-3 6.8% 40.8% 40.8% 14.8 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.3 4.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 47.1% 47.1% 0.0% 14.2 52.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 27.9% 100.0% 13.9 0.9 23.1 60.4 15.6 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 9.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 12.3%
Lose Out 1.1%