Navy
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.9#318
Expected Predictive Rating-15.0#347
Pace68.9#187
Improvement-1.6#280

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#280
First Shot-3.4#277
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#212
Layup/Dunks-2.2#261
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#229
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#247
Freethrows+2.0#69
Improvement-1.5#285

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#330
First Shot-4.2#314
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#252
Layups/Dunks+0.9#134
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#327
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#169
Freethrows-3.6#352
Improvement-0.2#198
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 5.6% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 3.7% 8.1% 2.5%
.500 or above in Conference 32.7% 41.2% 30.4%
Conference Champion 3.5% 5.3% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 24.2% 18.4% 25.7%
First Four3.7% 5.0% 3.3%
First Round2.2% 3.2% 1.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: William & Mary (Away) - 20.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 31 - 41 - 6
Quad 410 - 1610 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 86   @ Saint Joseph's L 63-70 5%     0 - 1 +2.6 -5.5 +8.2
  Nov 08, 2024 243   Harvard W 85-80 45%     1 - 1 -2.6 +6.2 -9.0
  Nov 12, 2024 303   Rider L 79-90 57%     1 - 2 -21.8 +1.6 -23.6
  Nov 17, 2024 296   Campbell L 66-86 55%     1 - 3 -30.3 -11.2 -18.8
  Nov 19, 2024 249   Quinnipiac L 63-74 46%     1 - 4 -18.8 -10.2 -9.1
  Nov 29, 2024 292   @ Penn W 86-78 32%     2 - 4 +4.0 +9.4 -5.5
  Nov 30, 2024 181   Elon L 63-69 23%     2 - 5 -7.0 -9.1 +1.9
  Dec 01, 2024 217   Maine L 66-71 28%     2 - 6 -7.9 -2.8 -5.4
  Dec 07, 2024 352   @ NJIT L 64-69 53%     2 - 7 -14.6 -7.2 -7.6
  Dec 15, 2024 138   @ Virginia Tech L 72-80 11%     2 - 8 -3.7 +12.9 -17.9
  Dec 21, 2024 362   @ Coppin St. L 60-68 69%     2 - 9 -22.1 -16.3 -5.7
  Dec 29, 2024 221   @ William & Mary L 77-86 21%    
  Jan 02, 2025 232   American L 68-70 42%    
  Jan 05, 2025 267   Lafayette L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 08, 2025 313   @ Holy Cross L 71-74 37%    
  Jan 11, 2025 322   @ Loyola Maryland L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 15, 2025 241   Colgate L 71-72 45%    
  Jan 18, 2025 266   @ Bucknell L 67-73 28%    
  Jan 22, 2025 257   Boston University L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 26, 2025 312   @ Army L 70-73 38%    
  Jan 29, 2025 246   @ Lehigh L 71-78 25%    
  Feb 01, 2025 266   Bucknell L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 05, 2025 257   @ Boston University L 65-72 28%    
  Feb 08, 2025 267   @ Lafayette L 66-72 29%    
  Feb 12, 2025 246   Lehigh L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 15, 2025 312   Army W 73-70 59%    
  Feb 19, 2025 241   @ Colgate L 68-75 25%    
  Feb 23, 2025 313   Holy Cross W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 26, 2025 232   @ American L 65-73 23%    
  Mar 01, 2025 322   Loyola Maryland W 73-70 61%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.6 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.9 3.8 0.9 0.1 7.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 5.3 1.5 0.1 9.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 5.9 2.7 0.2 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.7 6.0 4.0 0.4 12.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.9 5.0 0.8 0.0 14.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 5.6 5.0 1.2 0.0 15.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.9 4.8 3.1 0.9 0.0 15.7 10th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.2 4.6 7.8 10.9 13.5 14.2 13.3 11.7 8.6 5.8 3.5 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 97.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 97.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
14-4 84.6% 0.7    0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 59.1% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 27.0% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
11-7 4.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 32.6% 32.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.3% 21.9% 21.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3
14-4 0.9% 20.5% 20.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 0.7
13-5 1.8% 16.1% 16.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3 1.5
12-6 3.5% 12.6% 12.6% 16.0 0.4 3.1
11-7 5.8% 9.2% 9.2% 16.0 0.5 5.2
10-8 8.6% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 0.7 8.0
9-9 11.7% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.7 10.9
8-10 13.3% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.5 12.9
7-11 14.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.3 13.9
6-12 13.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 13.4
5-13 10.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.9
4-14 7.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.8
3-15 4.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.6
2-16 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.2
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.9 96.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%