Navy
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#263
Expected Predictive Rating-9.7#318
Pace67.3#211
Improvement+4.5#29

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#248
First Shot-2.8#260
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#197
Layup/Dunks-2.5#274
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#196
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#243
Freethrows+2.1#66
Improvement-0.5#206

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#255
First Shot-2.2#248
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#240
Layups/Dunks+1.5#114
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#322
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#176
Freethrows-2.1#315
Improvement+5.0#7
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.5% 13.6% 9.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.9% 3.9% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 71.5% 87.9% 58.7%
Conference Champion 4.9% 9.0% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 0.9% 5.1%
First Four10.9% 12.4% 9.7%
First Round6.7% 8.4% 5.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston University (Away) - 43.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 30 - 50 - 6
Quad 412 - 1312 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 86   @ Saint Joseph's L 63-70 9%     0 - 1 +2.2 -5.4 +7.7
  Nov 08, 2024 241   Harvard W 85-80 55%     1 - 1 -2.1 +6.2 -8.6
  Nov 12, 2024 303   Rider L 79-90 68%     1 - 2 -21.5 +1.8 -23.5
  Nov 17, 2024 178   Campbell L 66-86 41%     1 - 3 -23.3 -7.2 -15.9
  Nov 19, 2024 187   Quinnipiac L 63-74 43%     1 - 4 -14.8 -6.6 -8.6
  Nov 29, 2024 273   @ Penn W 86-78 43%     2 - 4 +4.2 +8.8 -4.7
  Nov 30, 2024 175   Elon L 63-69 31%     2 - 5 -6.7 -9.0 +2.0
  Dec 01, 2024 199   Maine L 66-71 35%     2 - 6 -6.7 -1.2 -5.8
  Dec 07, 2024 344   @ NJIT L 64-69 64%     2 - 7 -14.3 -6.6 -8.0
  Dec 15, 2024 118   @ Virginia Tech L 72-80 16%     2 - 8 -2.9 +11.7 -15.8
  Dec 21, 2024 362   @ Coppin St. L 60-68 82%     2 - 9 -23.3 -16.6 -6.5
  Dec 29, 2024 208   @ William & Mary L 76-82 29%     2 - 10 -5.9 -1.8 -4.0
  Jan 02, 2025 233   American W 81-58 54%     3 - 10 1 - 0 +16.4 +11.2 +7.3
  Jan 05, 2025 281   Lafayette W 71-70 63%     4 - 10 2 - 0 -8.2 -0.9 -7.2
  Jan 08, 2025 319   @ Holy Cross L 59-70 54%     4 - 11 2 - 1 -17.8 -16.2 -2.2
  Jan 11, 2025 325   @ Loyola Maryland L 74-75 57%     4 - 12 2 - 2 -8.5 +6.3 -14.9
  Jan 15, 2025 239   Colgate L 66-73 55%     4 - 13 2 - 3 -14.1 -10.0 -4.3
  Jan 18, 2025 251   @ Bucknell L 69-73 39%     4 - 14 2 - 4 -6.8 +1.6 -8.7
  Jan 22, 2025 294   Boston University W 62-47 65%     5 - 14 3 - 4 +5.2 -3.7 +11.4
  Jan 26, 2025 297   @ Army W 66-53 47%     6 - 14 4 - 4 +8.0 -2.2 +11.6
  Jan 29, 2025 267   @ Lehigh W 79-54 41%     7 - 14 5 - 4 +21.5 +9.7 +13.3
  Feb 01, 2025 251   Bucknell L 75-85 58%     7 - 15 5 - 5 -17.7 -0.9 -16.7
  Feb 05, 2025 294   @ Boston University L 65-66 44%    
  Feb 08, 2025 281   @ Lafayette L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 12, 2025 267   Lehigh W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 15, 2025 297   Army W 73-69 67%    
  Feb 19, 2025 239   @ Colgate L 70-74 34%    
  Feb 23, 2025 319   Holy Cross W 74-68 73%    
  Feb 26, 2025 233   @ American L 66-70 33%    
  Mar 01, 2025 325   Loyola Maryland W 74-67 74%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 2.6 0.9 4.9 1st
2nd 0.1 3.0 7.7 2.7 0.1 13.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 10.5 4.8 0.2 17.1 3rd
4th 0.2 8.3 8.8 0.6 17.9 4th
5th 0.0 2.7 11.5 2.0 0.0 16.3 5th
6th 0.4 8.0 4.2 0.1 12.6 6th
7th 0.0 2.6 6.1 0.4 9.0 7th
8th 0.4 3.6 1.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.3 0.7 0.1 1.0 10th
Total 0.5 2.3 7.8 17.9 26.0 24.5 14.6 5.5 1.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 90.5% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.0
12-6 46.5% 2.6    0.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 9.9% 1.4    0.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1
10-8 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 1.2 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 1.0% 25.3% 25.3% 15.3 0.2 0.1 0.7
12-6 5.5% 21.5% 21.5% 16.0 0.0 1.2 4.3
11-7 14.6% 17.9% 17.9% 16.0 0.0 2.6 12.0
10-8 24.5% 12.7% 12.7% 16.0 3.1 21.4
9-9 26.0% 10.7% 10.7% 16.0 2.8 23.2
8-10 17.9% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 1.1 16.8
7-11 7.8% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.3 7.5
6-12 2.3% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.1 2.2
5-13 0.5% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 11.3 88.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 15.3 70.8 29.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 0.3%