Navy
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.2 #179
Expected Predictive Rating -0.5 #171
Pace 65.2 #272
Improvement +3.0 #61

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #249 C- C D B- C-
Defense #120 C+ C C B- A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #138 1.09 #263 -0.5 #193
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #100 0.76 #164 +1.5 #99
Three Pointers 36% #299 0.98 #227 -3.3 #297
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #248 -2.3 #248
Freethrows 0.33 #100 74% #135 0.24 #93
Second Chance 30.7% #175 1.05 #143 0.32 #156
Turnovers 18.7% #304
Total Offense -2.9 #249

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #345 1.23 #280 +3.6 #68
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #40 0.80 #256 -2.6 #346
Three Pointers 43% #101 0.92 #54 +0.9 #138
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #118 +1.9 #116
Freethrows 0.25 #46 75% #300 0.19 #65
Second Chance 30.5% #170 1.00 #131 0.30 #155
Turnovers 16.8% #170
Total Defense +1.7 #120

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #241 -2.6% #21
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.8% #239 -1.1% #169
Possession Length 18.3 #285 17.4 #207
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #267 0.16 #134
Improvement +1.1 #127 +2.0 #76

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.5% 38.3% 32.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 88.9% 92.7% 81.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 0.7% 1.6%
First Round35.9% 37.8% 32.0%
Second Round0.7% 0.7% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lafayette (Away) - 67.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 21 - 5
Quad 421 - 422 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 262 @Presbyterian W 76 - 55 56% +16  1 - 0 +18 +9 B- C+ B+ +11 B+ A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 7 80 Yale L 68 - 97 30% -14  1 - 1 -25 -12 D+ D F -11 C- F+ D+
 Tue, Nov 11 112 @Penn St. L 71 - 80 24% -6  1 - 2 -3 -0 D+ C+ F -3 B+ F C-
 Tue, Nov 18 29 @North Carolina L 61 - 73 5% -10  1 - 3 +6 -5 F+ D A+ +11 B A+ A
 Sat, Nov 22 324 NJIT W 86 - 70 86% +10  2 - 3 +3 +10 B C- C+ -7 B+ D- F+
 Wed, Nov 26 363 Gardner-Webb W 84 - 51 93% +16  3 - 3 +15 +7 D+ A+ F +10 B B- B+
 Fri, Nov 28 116 @UNC Wilmington L 57 - 87 24% -21  3 - 4 -24 -9 F F+ D+ -17 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 271 SE Louisiana L 65 - 69 69% -7  3 - 5 -10 -2 F+ D+ B- -8 F D A+
 Wed, Dec 3 353 @Delaware St. W 66 - 59 81% +9  4 - 5 -4 -8 F A- F +4 B+ C- F
 Sun, Dec 7 350 Air Force W 61 - 56 90% -0  5 - 5 -10 -10 F+ F B+ +0 B+ C+ D-
 Fri, Dec 19 364 Coppin St. W 88 - 55 97% +12  6 - 5 +10 +8 D+ A+ D+ +3 C+ A D+
 Wed, Dec 31 290 Boston University W 82 - 77 81% +5  7 - 5 1 - 0 -5 +4 B- D- C -9 C B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 323 @Holy Cross W 65 - 58 71% +6  8 - 5 2 - 0 +0 -1 D+ F+ D +3 A+ F B-
 Wed, Jan 7 315 Bucknell W 76 - 55 85% +7  9 - 5 3 - 0 +9 +3 C- A- F +7 B A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 310 Lafayette W 76 - 50 84% +20  10 - 5 4 - 0 +14 +1 B D+ C +14 A- A+ A-
 Mon, Jan 12 244 @American L 51 - 65 52% -11  10 - 6 4 - 1 -16 -15 F F+ F+ -2 B- B F
 Sat, Jan 17 301 @Lehigh W 82 - 79 2OT 65% -0  11 - 6 5 - 1 -2 +1 D B+ D- -3 B- B+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 323 Holy Cross W 85 - 68 86% +6  12 - 6 6 - 1 +4 +12 C+ A+ A -7 D F B
 Sat, Jan 24 336 Army W 84 - 56 88% +12  13 - 6 7 - 1 +14 +12 A+ A+ F +5 C A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 28 290 @Boston University W 58 - 50 62% -2  14 - 6 8 - 1 +4 -6 C F F +12 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 31 318 Loyola Maryland W 87 - 71 86% +8  15 - 6 9 - 1 +3 +13 A+ A+ D -9 D C+ C
 Wed, Feb 4 310 @Lafayette W 71 - 66 67%
 Sat, Feb 7 244 American W 71 - 65 74%
 Mon, Feb 9 315 @Bucknell W 71 - 66 69%
 Sat, Feb 14 222 @Colgate L 70 - 71 47%
 Wed, Feb 18 301 Lehigh W 73 - 63 83%
 Sat, Feb 21 336 @Army W 74 - 67 73%
 Wed, Feb 25 318 @Loyola Maryland W 74 - 69 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 222 Colgate W 73 - 68 69%
Totals 21 - 8 15 - 3 -1 -3 C- C D +2 C+ C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.0 10.8 23.3 26.8 19.3 6.6 88.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.1 0.7 8.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.2 2.0 3rd
4th 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.7 6.2 15.1 24.0 26.8 19.3 6.6 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 6.6    6.6
16-2 100.0% 19.3    19.3
15-3 100.0% 26.8    26.3 0.4
14-4 97.2% 23.3    19.0 4.2 0.1
13-5 71.9% 10.8    5.6 4.6 0.7
12-6 32.2% 2.0    0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0
11-7 7.9% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 88.9% 88.9 77.4 10.3 1.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 6.6% 47.5% 47.5% 13.5 0.1 1.5 1.4 0.1 3.5
16-2 19.3% 43.6% 43.6% 14.4 0.0 0.7 3.9 3.6 0.2 10.9
15-3 26.8% 38.4% 38.4% 14.8 0.2 2.7 6.1 1.3 16.5
14-4 24.0% 33.6% 33.6% 15.2 0.0 0.9 4.8 2.3 15.9
13-5 15.1% 31.0% 31.0% 15.4 0.2 2.4 2.0 10.4
12-6 6.2% 23.9% 23.9% 15.5 0.0 0.7 0.8 4.7
11-7 1.7% 19.7% 19.7% 15.8 0.1 0.2 1.3
10-8 0.4% 21.0% 21.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.3
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 36.5% 36.5% 0.0% 14.8 63.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.1% 100.0% 13.5 4.1 47.4 45.6 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%