Navy
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.1 #193
Expected Predictive Rating -1.5 #190
Pace 67.4 #236
Improvement +0.7 #142

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #234 D C D+ A+ C
Defense #151 C+ C- C B- A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #77 1.09 #261 +0.9 #138
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #109 0.62 #325 -0.2 #185
Three Pointers 33% #324 0.94 #268 -5.1 #323
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #300 -4.3 #300
Freethrows 21.0 #28 78% #34 16.4 #15
Second Chance 31.3% #164 1.06 #171 0.33 #156
Turnovers 17.8% #253
Total Offense -2.3 #234

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #343 1.18 #199 +4.4 #52
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #38 0.83 #294 -3.3 #352
Three Pointers 43% #126 0.96 #120 +0.2 #175
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #139 +1.2 #139
Freethrows 14.8 #56 77% #332 11.3 #268
Second Chance 29.1% #121 1.18 #314 0.34 #234
Turnovers 17.0% #156
Total Defense +0.2 #151

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #210 -2.7% #22
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.3% #304 0.3% #186
Possession Length 18.4 #296 17.1 #152
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #259 0.16 #130
Improvement +0.5 #151 +0.2 #174

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.5% 30.7% 23.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 98.6% 99.2% 95.6%
.500 or above in Conference 98.3% 99.1% 94.6%
Conference Champion 47.8% 51.3% 30.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four3.4% 3.2% 4.7%
First Round27.9% 29.2% 21.2%
Second Round0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lafayette (Home) - 83.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 21 - 5
Quad 420 - 521 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 289 @Presbyterian W 76 - 55 58%  +16  1 - 0 +17 +9 C B- A +10 B A+ A
 Fri, Nov 7 80 Yale L 68 - 97 27%  -14  1 - 1 -25 -12 D- D+ F -10 C- F C
 Tue, Nov 11 105 @Penn St. L 71 - 80 18%  -6  1 - 2 -2 +2 D C+ F -4 B+ F C-
 Tue, Nov 18 26 @North Carolina L 61 - 73 4%  -10  1 - 3 +6 -3 F D+ A+ +9 B A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 22 351 NJIT W 86 - 70 90%  +10  2 - 3 +0 +10 B D+ C+ -9 B D- F
 Wed, Nov 26 363 Gardner-Webb W 84 - 51 90%  +16  3 - 3 +17 +7 D+ A+ F +11 A- B- A+
 Fri, Nov 28 118 @UNC Wilmington L 57 - 87 22%  -21  3 - 4 -24 -8 F F D -18 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 260 SE Louisiana L 65 - 69 63%  -7  3 - 5 -10 -3 F D+ C+ -7 F D A+
 Wed, Dec 3 352 @Delaware St. W 66 - 59 77%  +9  4 - 5 -3 -7 F A- F +4 C+ D+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 334 Air Force W 61 - 56 86%  -0  5 - 5 -9 -9 F F A+ +1 A- B D-
 Fri, Dec 19 364 Coppin St. W 88 - 55 96%  +12  6 - 5 +10 +10 D A+ D- +1 C+ A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 258 Boston University W 82 - 77 73%  +5  7 - 5 1 - 0 -4 +4 B- C- C -7 C A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 326 @Holy Cross W 65 - 58 69%  +6  8 - 5 2 - 0 -0 -1 F D- D +2 A+ F B
 Wed, Jan 7 314 Bucknell W 76 - 55 83%  +16  9 - 5 3 - 0 +9 +5 C- A+ F +5 A+ A- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 318 Lafayette W 76 - 66 84% 
 Mon, Jan 12 241 @American L 71 - 72 48% 
 Sat, Jan 17 320 @Lehigh W 72 - 67 66% 
 Wed, Jan 21 326 Holy Cross W 74 - 63 85% 
 Sat, Jan 24 330 Army W 77 - 66 86% 
 Wed, Jan 28 258 @Boston University W 71 - 70 52% 
 Sat, Jan 31 336 Loyola Maryland W 79 - 67 87% 
 Wed, Feb 4 318 @Lafayette W 73 - 69 66% 
 Sat, Feb 7 241 American W 74 - 69 69% 
 Mon, Feb 9 314 @Bucknell W 71 - 67 64% 
 Sat, Feb 14 205 @Colgate L 70 - 73 41% 
 Wed, Feb 18 320 Lehigh W 75 - 64 83% 
 Sat, Feb 21 330 @Army W 74 - 69 69% 
 Wed, Feb 25 336 @Loyola Maryland W 76 - 70 71% 
 Sat, Feb 28 205 Colgate W 73 - 70 62% 
Totals 19 - 10 13 - 5 -2 -2 D C D+ +0 C+ C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 5.7 11.7 13.9 9.5 4.2 1.1 47.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.5 7.1 9.7 6.4 2.0 0.2 28.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.1 4.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.6 1.8 0.5 0.1 5.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 2.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.7 5.4 9.6 13.9 17.5 18.4 15.9 9.7 4.2 1.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
17-1 100.0% 4.2    4.1 0.1
16-2 97.7% 9.5    8.8 0.7 0.0
15-3 87.2% 13.9    11.1 2.6 0.1
14-4 63.7% 11.7    7.1 4.2 0.5 0.0
13-5 32.7% 5.7    2.1 2.7 0.8 0.1
12-6 12.2% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 47.8% 47.8 34.6 11.1 2.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.1% 52.6% 52.6% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5
17-1 4.2% 49.1% 49.1% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.1
16-2 9.7% 41.9% 41.9% 14.5 0.2 1.7 2.0 0.1 5.6
15-3 15.9% 35.5% 35.5% 14.9 0.1 1.2 3.5 0.9 10.2
14-4 18.4% 33.1% 33.1% 15.3 0.6 3.3 2.2 12.3
13-5 17.5% 28.0% 28.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 2.1 2.7 12.6
12-6 13.9% 23.2% 23.2% 15.7 0.0 1.0 2.2 10.7
11-7 9.6% 18.3% 18.3% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.5 7.9
10-8 5.4% 14.4% 14.4% 15.9 0.1 0.7 4.7
9-9 2.7% 11.8% 11.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3 2.3
8-10 1.1% 10.9% 10.9% 16.0 0.1 1.0
7-11 0.4% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 29.5% 29.5% 0.0% 15.1 70.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 12.7 3.6 35.1 50.5 10.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%