Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.0 #349
Expected Predictive Rating -14.2 #348
Pace 60.0 #363
Improvement +2.6 #74

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #338 D+ F+ D+ F B-
Defense #322 D D+ D+ D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #58 1.01 #339 -0.5 #197
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #270 0.69 #296 -2.1 #287
Three Pointers 40% #200 0.99 #225 -1.0 #217
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #286 -3.6 #287
Freethrows 0.22 #361 70% #268 0.15 #360
Second Chance 22.9% #349 0.85 #353 0.20 #360
Turnovers 18.2% #280
Total Offense -6.8 #338

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #223 1.21 #255 -0.2 #181
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #187 0.91 #356 -1.5 #296
Three Pointers 43% #124 1.10 #304 -2.7 #298
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #312 -4.3 #309
Freethrows 0.31 #212 78% #358 0.24 #275
Second Chance 33.2% #288 1.09 #282 0.36 #299
Turnovers 14.9% #287
Total Defense -5.2 #322

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.7% #66 -0.1% #156
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.6% #322 8.6% #327
Possession Length 20.0 #362 17.1 #158
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #342 0.20 #281
Improvement +1.7 #95 +0.9 #126

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 45.5% 33.3% 63.3%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Canisius (Home) - 59.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 8
Quad 47 - 157 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 113 @Duquesne L 63 - 83 5% -17  0 - 1 -14 -8 D F F -6 F D+ A
 Sat, Nov 8 361 @Binghamton W 67 - 59 54% +0  1 - 1 -5 -5 F D C +1 A+ F F
 Mon, Nov 10 353 Delaware St. W 68 - 57 67% +8  2 - 1 -6 +4 A F A- -7 C F+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 296 @Le Moyne L 68 - 74 24% -4  2 - 2 -11 -4 C+ F D+ -7 F+ A+ C
 Fri, Nov 21 3 @Duke L 42 - 100 0% -30  2 - 3 -31 -14 F C F -22 F F D+
 Sat, Nov 22 253 Howard L 70 - 80 26% +4  2 - 4 -15 -7 D+ B- F -7 D+ C C
 Sat, Nov 29 278 Detroit Mercy L 66 - 70 40% -6  2 - 5 -14 -8 D+ F B- -5 B+ D- D+
 Fri, Dec 5 174 @Siena L 54 - 83 10% -22  2 - 6 0 - 1 -27 -15 F F A+ -14 F D D-
 Sun, Dec 7 235 @St. Peter's L 43 - 71 15% -13  2 - 7 0 - 2 -29 -22 F F F -12 D- F D-
 Sat, Dec 13 354 @Morgan St. L 73 - 81 45% -4  2 - 8 -19 -2 D D+ C+ -17 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 15 50 @Virginia Commonwealth L 58 - 84 2% -8  2 - 9 -13 -4 D- F+ B- -12 F B- C+
 Fri, Jan 2 276 Sacred Heart W 64 - 61 40% +9  3 - 9 1 - 2 -6 -3 B+ F C- -3 A F A
 Sun, Jan 4 272 Fairfield L 75 - 83 39% -5  3 - 10 1 - 3 -17 +8 A+ F+ C -27 F F+ F
 Fri, Jan 9 231 @Iona L 53 - 71 15% -16  3 - 11 1 - 4 -19 -10 F F A -12 D+ F+ D
 Sun, Jan 11 327 @Manhattan L 70 - 79 32% +1  3 - 12 1 - 5 -16 +2 A- F C- -20 C+ F F
 Wed, Jan 14 345 @Canisius W 59 - 54 37% +3  4 - 12 2 - 5 -4 -4 D+ F D +1 B+ C C
 Mon, Jan 19 289 Mount St. Mary's L 58 - 68 44% -1  4 - 13 2 - 6 -20 -9 F A+ F -13 D B- F
 Thu, Jan 22 272 @Fairfield L 61 - 62 20% -3  4 - 14 2 - 7 -4 -10 D+ F F+ +6 C+ D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 276 @Sacred Heart L 70 - 71 21% +5  4 - 15 2 - 8 -4 -3 B+ B F -2 F+ A+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 174 Siena L 79 - 82 22% -3  4 - 16 2 - 9 -7 +12 A+ C+ C+ -20 F D C-
 Sun, Feb 1 161 Marist L 46 - 58 20% -5  4 - 17 2 - 10 -15 -16 F F F -1 B+ B- F
 Tue, Feb 3 345 Canisius W 65 - 62 60%
 Sat, Feb 7 186 @Quinnipiac L 64 - 77 12%
 Fri, Feb 13 327 Manhattan W 72 - 71 55%
 Sun, Feb 15 231 Iona L 66 - 71 32%
 Fri, Feb 20 289 @Mount St. Mary's L 62 - 70 23%
 Sun, Feb 22 352 @Rider L 65 - 67 41%
 Fri, Feb 27 186 Quinnipiac L 67 - 74 25%
 Sun, Mar 1 201 Merrimack L 61 - 67 28%
Totals 7 - 22 5 - 15 -12 -7 D+ F+ D+ -5 D D+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.1 2.3 9th
10th 0.4 3.8 4.0 0.7 0.0 8.9 10th
11th 2.3 12.2 11.3 2.4 0.1 28.3 11th
12th 3.1 15.6 13.4 2.7 0.1 34.9 12th
13th 3.7 11.5 8.2 1.4 0.1 24.8 13th
Total 3.7 14.6 26.1 27.4 18.0 7.5 2.2 0.4 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.1% 0.1
9-11 0.4% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
8-12 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.2
7-13 7.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.5
6-14 18.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.0
5-15 27.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 27.4
4-16 26.1% 26.1
3-17 14.6% 14.6
2-18 3.7% 3.7
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.7%