Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -13.4 #354
Expected Predictive Rating -13.8 #340
Pace 60.5 #359
Improvement -1.4 #255

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #337 D- F C F B-
Defense #343 F F C- D C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #112 1.02 #323 -1.3 #233
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #238 0.74 #199 -1.3 #240
Three Pointers 41% #174 0.88 #316 -2.6 #273
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #321 -5.2 #321
Freethrows 12.6 #347 71% #219 9.0 #347
Second Chance 21.7% #358 0.87 #345 0.19 #362
Turnovers 17.1% #209
Total Offense -7.0 #337

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #227 1.19 #218 +0.2 #171
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #227 0.90 #342 -0.7 #238
Three Pointers 44% #91 1.20 #355 -5.9 #348
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #339 -6.3 #339
Freethrows 18.7 #252 77% #339 14.3 #65
Second Chance 35.5% #327 1.12 #273 0.40 #328
Turnovers 15.6% #246
Total Defense -6.4 #343

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #110 0.3% #189
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.1% #339 12.2% #344
Possession Length 20.1 #360 17.4 #218
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #319 0.23 #326
Improvement +1.2 #100 -2.6 #329

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.8% 4.9% 0.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 43.5% 26.1% 49.1%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Away) - 24.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 8
Quad 47 - 147 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 129 @Duquesne L 63 - 83 5%  -17  0 - 1 -15 -10 F F F -5 F C A+
 Sat, Nov 8 359 @Binghamton W 67 - 59 45%  +0  1 - 1 -4 -6 F F C +2 A+ F F
 Mon, Nov 10 352 Delaware St. W 68 - 57 60%  +8  2 - 1 -5 +4 A+ F A+ -8 D+ F F
 Mon, Nov 17 291 @Le Moyne L 68 - 74 19%  -4  2 - 2 -10 -6 C F D+ -5 F A+ C
 Fri, Nov 21 6 @Duke L 42 - 100 0%  -30  2 - 3 -34 -16 F C- F -22 F F D-
 Sat, Nov 22 271 Howard L 70 - 80 25%  +4  2 - 4 -16 -8 D+ B- F -8 D+ D- C+
 Sat, Nov 29 281 Detroit Mercy L 66 - 70 36%  -6  2 - 5 -14 -8 D F B- -6 A- F D+
 Fri, Dec 5 190 @Siena L 54 - 83 10%  -22  2 - 6 0 - 1 -28 -14 F F A+ -16 F D- F
 Sun, Dec 7 259 @St. Peter's L 43 - 71 16%  -13  2 - 7 0 - 2 -31 -22 F F F -13 F F D-
 Sat, Dec 13 362 @Morgan St. L 73 - 81 49%  -4  2 - 8 -21 -3 F D- B -19 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 15 49 @Virginia Commonwealth L 58 - 84 1%  -8  2 - 9 -12 -2 D- D+ B+ -13 F B- C
 Fri, Jan 2 285 Sacred Heart W 64 - 61 37%  +9  3 - 9 1 - 2 -7 -3 B+ F C -3 A D- A
 Sun, Jan 4 282 Fairfield L 75 - 83 36%  -5  3 - 10 1 - 3 -18 +7 A+ F D+ -26 F F F
 Fri, Jan 9 214 @Iona L 53 - 71 11%  -16  3 - 11 1 - 4 -18 -10 F F A+ -10 D F D-
 Sun, Jan 11 311 @Manhattan L 68 - 75 24% 
 Wed, Jan 14 331 @Canisius L 61 - 67 30% 
 Mon, Jan 19 292 Mount St. Mary's L 66 - 69 38% 
 Thu, Jan 22 282 @Fairfield L 65 - 75 19% 
 Sat, Jan 24 285 @Sacred Heart L 67 - 77 19% 
 Fri, Jan 30 190 Siena L 62 - 70 22% 
 Sun, Feb 1 140 Marist L 57 - 69 15% 
 Tue, Feb 3 331 Canisius W 65 - 64 51% 
 Sat, Feb 7 158 @Quinnipiac L 63 - 79 7% 
 Fri, Feb 13 311 Manhattan L 71 - 72 46% 
 Sun, Feb 15 214 Iona L 67 - 74 25% 
 Fri, Feb 20 292 @Mount St. Mary's L 63 - 72 20% 
 Sun, Feb 22 348 @Rider L 62 - 66 36% 
 Fri, Feb 27 158 Quinnipiac L 66 - 76 18% 
 Sun, Mar 1 237 Merrimack L 61 - 67 29% 
Totals 7 - 22 5 - 15 -13 -7 D- F C -6 F F C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 2.2 7th
8th 0.4 1.7 1.2 0.1 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.4 2.5 0.4 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.1 4.6 1.3 0.1 9.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 4.5 7.0 2.8 0.2 15.4 11th
12th 0.1 1.1 4.9 10.6 11.1 4.8 0.5 0.0 33.1 12th
13th 2.0 6.9 10.0 7.6 2.6 0.3 0.0 29.3 13th
Total 2.0 7.9 14.9 19.1 18.6 15.7 10.6 6.1 3.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 20.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
11-9 0.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
10-10 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
9-11 3.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.2
8-12 6.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.1
7-13 10.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.6
6-14 15.7% 15.7
5-15 18.6% 18.6
4-16 19.1% 19.1
3-17 14.9% 14.9
2-18 7.9% 7.9
1-19 2.0% 2.0
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.0%