Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.8 336
Results Rating -13.5 347
Pace 58.8 365
Improvement +3.7 55

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 332 C- F D F+ B-
Defense D 315 D+ D D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 65 D 53% 305 +0.2 167
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 228 C- 36% 235 -1.9 273
Three Pointers 41% 187 C 34% 202 -0.3 190
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 72 D+ -2.8 280
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 237
Second Chance F+ 21.6% 354 F 0.84 357 F 0.18 361
Turnovers D 18.9% 307
Freethrows F+ 0.23 357 C 72% 198 F+ 0.17 353
Total Offense D -6.6 332

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 53% 110 C- 11.9% 235
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 15% 328 C- 6.2% 264
Three Pointers B- 88% 107 B 0.4% 55
Total C+ 59% 115 C- 6.2% 253

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 229 D+ 61% 264 +0.3 192
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 194 D- 43% 326 +0.7 246
Three Pointers 43% 111 D+ 36% 270 +2.3 291
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 160 D +3.3 307
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.09 293
Second Chance D 33.8% 305 C- 1.07 252 D 0.36 304
Turnovers D+ 15.1% 280
Freethrows C 0.30 170 F 77% 357 C- 0.23 226
Total Defense D -5.2 315

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 86 D+ 8.5% 273
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 245 C- 3.9% 234
Three Pointers D+ 87% 286 C+ 1.2% 107
Total C 56% 182 D+ 4.4% 274

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 20.0 361 17.2 173
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 348 0.18 228
Improvement +2.7 #71 +1.0 #130

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 347 337 324
Results Rating Rank 353 344 334
Conference Record 4 - 16 5 - 15 6 - 14
Conference Finish 12 11 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 5% 0% 11%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Rider (Away) - 51.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 8
Quad 47 - 157 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 110 @Duquesne L 63 - 83 5% -17  0% 0 - 1 D- -14 F -10 D- F F D+ -3 F D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 359 @Binghamton W 67 - 59 55% +0  43% 1 - 1 D+ -5 F+ -9 F D C- B +4 A+ F F
 Mon, Nov 10 361 Delaware St. W 68 - 57 79% +8  90% 2 - 1 D -9 C- -1 A- F B+ D -6 C- F F
 Mon, Nov 17 300 @Le Moyne L 68 - 74 26% -4  7% 2 - 2 D -11 D- -6 C+ F D D -5 F+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 2 @Duke L 42 - 100 0% -30  0% 2 - 3 F -30 F -16 F C F F -19 F F D+
 Sat, Nov 22 202 Howard L 70 - 80 19% +4  75% 2 - 4 D- -12 F+ -9 C- B- F C- -3 C C- C-
 Sat, Nov 29 255 Detroit Mercy L 66 - 70 36% -6  5% 2 - 5 D- -12 F -10 D+ F B- C- -2 A- F+ D
 Fri, Dec 5 191 @Siena L 54 - 83 12% -22  0% 2 - 6 0 - 1 F -28 F -18 F F A+ F -12 F D- D-
 Sun, Dec 7 235 @St. Peter's L 43 - 71 16% -13  0% 2 - 7 0 - 2 F -29 F -24 F F F F+ -9 D- F D-
 Sat, Dec 13 350 @Morgan St. L 73 - 81 45% -4  6% 2 - 8 F -19 D -5 D+ D+ B- F -14 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 15 46 @Virginia Commonwealth L 58 - 84 2% -8  6% 2 - 9 D- -12 D -5 D F+ B- F+ -10 F B C+
 Fri, Jan 2 286 Sacred Heart W 64 - 61 45% +9  99% 3 - 9 1 - 2 D+ -7 D -6 B+ F D+ C -1 A F A
 Sun, Jan 4 264 Fairfield L 75 - 83 39% -5  6% 3 - 10 1 - 3 F+ -17 B +6 A+ F C+ F -24 F F F
 Fri, Jan 9 249 @Iona L 53 - 71 18% -16  1% 3 - 11 1 - 4 F -20 F -14 F F A F+ -9 D D- D
 Sun, Jan 11 319 @Manhattan L 70 - 79 33% +1  52% 3 - 12 1 - 5 F+ -16 C- -1 A- F D+ F -17 C+ F F
 Wed, Jan 14 344 @Canisius W 59 - 54 41% +3  76% 4 - 12 2 - 5 C- -4 D- -6 D+ F D B- +3 B+ C- C-
 Mon, Jan 19 284 Mount St. Mary's L 58 - 68 44% -1  54% 4 - 13 2 - 6 F -20 F -11 F A+ F F -10 D+ B- F
 Thu, Jan 22 264 @Fairfield L 61 - 62 20% -3  8% 4 - 14 2 - 7 C- -4 F -13 D+ F D- A +9 B- D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 286 @Sacred Heart L 70 - 71 24% +5  95% 4 - 15 2 - 8 D+ -5 D -6 B+ B F C+ +0 F+ A+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 191 Siena L 79 - 82 26% -3  19% 4 - 16 2 - 9 D+ -8 B+ +9 A+ C+ C+ F -18 F D C-
 Sun, Feb 1 181 Marist L 46 - 58 24% -5  2% 4 - 17 2 - 10 F+ -16 F -20 F F F B- +2 B+ B F
 Tue, Feb 3 344 Canisius W 65 - 56 64% +8  92% 5 - 17 3 - 10 D+ -6 C- -1 A+ F F D+ -3 C- C+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 192 @Quinnipiac L 55 - 56 12% -5  12% 5 - 18 3 - 11 C -0 D- -7 C- D+ F B+ +7 B A+ B+
 Fri, Feb 13 319 Manhattan L 69 - 76 56% -5  11% 5 - 19 3 - 12 F -20 F+ -9 B F D F -12 F F C
 Sun, Feb 15 249 Iona W 70 - 68 35% +1  55% 6 - 19 4 - 12 D+ -6 B+ +9 A+ F A- F -15 C+ F F
 Fri, Feb 20 284 @Mount St. Mary's L 63 - 76 23% -7  11% 6 - 20 4 - 13 F+ -17 F -12 F F+ F D -5 D+ F C-
 Sun, Feb 22 356 @Rider W 66 - 65 51%
 Fri, Feb 27 192 Quinnipiac L 64 - 71 26%
 Sun, Mar 1 160 Merrimack L 59 - 68 20%
Totals 7 - 22 5 - 15 -12 D -7 F+ D+ B- D -5 C C F+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D C- C D+ 43% 33% 41% B- C- F+ F F D F+ C F+ D D+ D- D+ D 37% 20% 43% C D+ D C- D D+ C F C-
0.99 53% 36% 34% -3 +1 0.98 22% 0.8 .18 19% .23 72% .17 1.16 61% 43% 36% +3 0 1.09 34% 1.1 .36 15% .30 77% .18
Nov
3		 Duquesne F C+ C+ F F+ 47% 23% 30% B- D- F F F F A+ A- A+ D+ F A+ F F 39% 12% 49% C+ F B F D+ A+ A+ D- A
0.89 60% 40% 15% -7 0 0.88 19% 0.7 .13 23% .49 78% .38 1.17 84% 17% 42% +13 +1 1.31 27% 1.3 .35 24% .24 77% .19
Nov
8		 Binghamton F+ D D- F F 47% 18% 35% C F D D+ D C- D+ C- D+ B A- A+ A+ A+ 53% 22% 24% D- A+ F D F F C B+ B-
1.05 54% 33% 22% -9 +1 0.86 28% 1.0 .28 13% .30 71% .22 0.92 46% 18% 25% -14 +1 0.76 30% 0.9 .27 14% .37 70% .26
Nov
10		 Delaware St. C- D D A+ A- 55% 7% 39% A A- F F F B+ D- F+ F+ D A D- B+ C 36% 26% 38% F+ C- C+ F F F B+ C+ B+
1.14 58% 33% 53% +11 +3 1.30 12% 0.7 .08 15% .28 64% .18 0.96 41% 42% 28% -9 -1 0.83 23% 1.3 .29 13% .23 67% .15
Nov
17		 Le Moyne D- F F A+ C+ 29% 20% 51% D+ C+ F D+ F D F+ B+ D D D+ A- F F 29% 22% 49% A- F+ C+ A+ A+ C- F F F
1.01 33% 20% 50% +1 -1 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 16% .25 79% .20 1.10 62% 30% 45% +8 -1 1.16 23% 0.3 .07 19% .41 91% .37
Nov
21		 Duke F F F F F 29% 15% 56% B+ F D+ B C F A+ F B+ F D+ F F F 31% 6% 63% B F F+ F F D+ F F F
0.65 42% 17% 22% -18 0 0.66 19% 0.9 .17 26% .31 60% .19 1.54 67% 67% 53% +23 +1 1.50 46% 1.5 .67 14% .43 79% .34
Nov
22		 Howard F+ F A+ F D+ 60% 15% 26% B C- C- A B- F A+ C- A+ C- A F C C 45% 12% 43% D C B- D C- C- F B+ F
0.93 46% 71% 25% -5 +2 0.96 31% 1.3 .41 29% .54 69% .37 1.06 42% 60% 33% -5 +2 0.95 32% 1.2 .38 20% .71 70% .50
Nov
29		 Detroit Mercy F A- A+ F D+ 36% 13% 51% C D+ F A+ F B- F F F C- C+ D A+ A 33% 31% 36% D A- F+ D F+ D F C F
1.01 68% 57% 22% -3 +1 0.98 12% 1.8 .21 12% .24 64% .16 1.07 53% 43% 19% -8 -2 0.82 38% 1.0 .38 14% .53 77% .41
Dec
5		 Siena F F A+ F F 50% 11% 39% A F F D F A+ F F F F D+ F+ F F 37% 23% 40% D F D+ D- D- D- B B- B
0.83 44% 50% 19% -14 +2 0.78 17% 0.9 .15 11% .19 55% .10 1.27 63% 50% 43% +10 0 1.21 32% 1.1 .36 14% .25 71% .18
Dec
7		 St. Peter's F D+ F F F 38% 23% 38% D+ F D F F F F A+ D+ F+ A+ F F D- 40% 20% 40% D+ D- C+ F F D- B+ D B
0.71 53% 11% 20% -16 0 0.69 30% 0.8 .23 30% .33 86% .28 1.17 39% 56% 39% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.5 .50 15% .27 79% .21
Dec
13		 Morgan St. D C- A D- D 50% 8% 42% B D+ F A+ D+ B- F B- F F F F F F 24% 29% 47% B F F D+ F A+ F F F
1.09 58% 50% 30% -1 +2 1.04 14% 2.8 .38 13% .33 74% .24 1.21 78% 73% 44% +22 -2 1.42 56% 0.9 .50 34% .48 86% .41
Dec
15		 Virginia Commonwealth D F+ F+ C D- 54% 19% 28% B D A- F F+ B- F A+ F F+ A- C+ F F 27% 11% 62% B F D+ A B C+ C- A B-
0.92 45% 30% 33% -9 +1 0.87 38% 0.4 .17 16% .15 88% .13 1.34 50% 40% 54% +16 0 1.36 37% 0.9 .33 16% .40 67% .26
Jan
2		 Sacred Heart D C C+ A+ B+ 37% 12% 51% C+ B+ F F F D+ D+ D- D+ C C A+ A+ A+ 44% 14% 42% F+ A F A+ F A F D- F
1.10 63% 40% 45% +11 +1 1.26 19% 0.6 .12 15% .24 67% .16 1.05 58% 17% 22% -10 +1 0.84 46% 0.8 .37 24% .41 83% .34
Jan
4		 Fairfield B B+ A+ A A 59% 4% 37% A A+ D F F C+ F A+ F F D- F F F 44% 25% 31% C F F D+ F F F F F
1.24 67% 50% 42% +10 +4 1.29 27% 0.7 .19 15% .08 100% .08 1.37 62% 50% 40% +7 0 1.17 41% 1.0 .41 8% .38 90% .34
Jan
9		 Iona F D+ F F F 32% 22% 46% D F F+ F F A F A F+ F+ F F B+ D 34% 15% 51% C- D F A- D- D C F D
0.87 56% 18% 26% -10 -1 0.80 26% 0.6 .15 12% .17 78% .13 1.17 69% 57% 29% +3 0 1.09 39% 0.8 .33 15% .25 85% .21
Jan
11		 Manhattan C- F+ A+ A+ B+ 49% 9% 43% A A- F F F D+ F A+ F F D A- A+ C+ 44% 29% 27% C+ C+ F F F F F F F
1.16 52% 75% 50% +10 +2 1.28 28% 0.5 .14 17% .14 86% .12 1.31 60% 31% 25% -5 -1 0.91 37% 1.7 .63 8% .38 90% .34
Jan
14		 Canisius D- D+ F B- D- 56% 17% 27% B+ D+ D- F F D A- A- A B- B D- A+ A- 25% 16% 59% C- B+ F A+ C- C- D- D- F+
1.02 57% 29% 36% -2 +2 1.02 26% 0.4 .10 17% .37 78% .29 0.93 45% 43% 23% -12 0 0.77 41% 0.6 .26 19% .34 75% .25
Jan
19		 Mount St. Mary's F F D- F F 45% 14% 41% A- F A+ A+ A+ F D+ F D- F A F D- C- 51% 9% 40% F+ D+ F+ A+ B- F F D F
0.95 25% 33% 22% -23 +1 0.59 42% 1.3 .56 21% .31 67% .21 1.11 46% 75% 37% -1 +2 1.04 34% 0.7 .25 16% .41 71% .29
Jan
22		 Fairfield F D- A+ C D 54% 8% 38% B+ D+ F F F D- F C F A A F B B 41% 20% 39% D+ B- C- D+ D+ B+ A A+ A+
0.94 50% 50% 35% -3 +3 1.02 18% 0.5 .09 18% .15 75% .11 0.95 43% 50% 30% -6 0 0.90 34% 1.0 .34 18% .17 56% .09
Jan
24		 Sacred Heart D A- D A B 51% 13% 36% B B+ F A+ B F F F F C+ F F D F 25% 22% 53% B F+ A+ A+ A+ F C A B-
1.06 71% 33% 41% +10 +2 1.26 21% 2.0 .42 21% .13 14% .02 1.08 69% 45% 37% +7 -1 1.14 13% 0.5 .06 14% .28 69% .19
Jan
30		 Siena B+ C- A+ A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% C+ A+ D- A+ C+ C+ D F F F F F C- F 26% 38% 36% A+ F A+ F D C- F F F
1.25 56% 50% 52% +15 0 1.33 25% 1.3 .32 16% .25 54% .13 1.30 91% 63% 33% +18 -3 1.31 20% 1.8 .35 16% .43 87% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Marist F F F A+ F 44% 24% 31% B- F C F F F F F+ F B- C C A+ B- 31% 44% 24% A+ B+ A+ F B F D+ F D-
0.75 30% 9% 43% -15 0 0.71 30% 0.5 .16 25% .24 64% .15 0.95 57% 40% 18% -5 -4 0.84 13% 1.8 .23 13% .28 87% .24
Feb
3		 Canisius C- A- A A+ A+ 50% 5% 45% A+ A+ F F F F F A- F D+ D- F A+ C- 40% 17% 44% F+ C- A+ F C+ F A+ F A-
1.13 70% 50% 44% +14 +3 1.35 23% 0.8 .18 21% .20 78% .15 0.97 58% 63% 19% -6 +1 0.92 16% 1.4 .23 14% .16 88% .14
Feb
7		 Quinnipiac D- B- C- D C- 32% 22% 46% D C- B- F+ D+ F D- D+ D- B+ A+ A+ F B+ 36% 18% 45% D+ B F A+ A+ B+ D- D- F+
0.93 62% 33% 32% -2 -1 0.98 35% 0.8 .29 25% .23 70% .16 0.95 38% 13% 40% -8 0 0.86 42% 0.4 .18 20% .34 75% .25
Feb
13		 Manhattan F+ A+ A+ D- B 43% 15% 41% B- B F F F D B+ A- A F F A+ F F 27% 29% 44% A- F D+ F F C B+ D- B-
1.09 75% 57% 32% +9 +1 1.22 16% 0.5 .08 17% .31 81% .25 1.20 77% 14% 48% +7 -2 1.13 29% 1.4 .42 16% .24 85% .21
Feb
15		 Iona B+ C- C A+ A+ 44% 19% 37% C+ A+ F F F A- B A+ A F F D- A C 20% 20% 59% A- C+ F F F F F F+ F
1.25 58% 38% 56% +12 +1 1.28 16% 0.5 .08 12% .31 87% .26 1.21 78% 44% 27% -1 -1 0.98 34% 1.5 .53 12% .35 76% .26
Feb
20		 Mount St. Mary's F D A F F 27% 22% 51% D+ F D+ F F+ F A+ B A+ D D+ A+ B- C- 62% 12% 26% F D+ F F F C- C+ B+ B-
0.90 50% 50% 22% -9 -1 0.82 26% 0.8 .20 21% .51 79% .40 1.09 61% 17% 31% -2 +3 1.04 37% 1.4 .50 21% .29 63% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 14.8 40.2 20.7 3.1 78.7 11th
12th 15.0 5.9 0.3 21.1 12th
13th 0.2 0.2 13th
Total 29.9 46.0 21.0 3.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13 3.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.1
6-14 21.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 20.9
5-15 46.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 46.0
4-16 29.9% 29.9
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 29.9%