Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.0#98
Expected Predictive Rating+1.3#151
Pace64.0#308
Improvement+2.9#37

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#69
First Shot+5.5#49
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#273
Layup/Dunks+1.9#116
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#54
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#113
Freethrows-0.9#237
Improvement+2.1#54

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#138
First Shot+0.2#161
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#120
Layups/Dunks+1.8#105
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#351
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#180
Freethrows+2.0#55
Improvement+0.9#124
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.2% 17.1% 12.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.2 12.6
.500 or above 88.9% 91.7% 76.0%
.500 or above in Conference 90.5% 93.1% 78.4%
Conference Champion 18.5% 20.7% 8.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round16.2% 17.0% 12.0%
Second Round3.0% 3.3% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Home) - 82.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 62 - 8
Quad 38 - 511 - 12
Quad 49 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 132   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 87-68 73%     1 - 0 +17.6 +14.2 +4.0
  Nov 10, 2024 75   UC Irvine L 60-80 52%     1 - 1 -15.5 -6.9 -8.8
  Nov 14, 2024 101   @ Wichita St. L 73-79 40%     1 - 2 +1.7 +5.6 -3.9
  Nov 19, 2024 331   Western Illinois W 82-56 94%     2 - 2 +12.9 +12.5 +3.4
  Nov 28, 2024 84   North Texas L 48-68 43%     2 - 3 -13.2 -14.5 -0.4
  Nov 29, 2024 87   St. Bonaventure L 56-68 45%     2 - 4 -5.6 -4.9 -2.2
  Dec 04, 2024 192   @ Illinois-Chicago W 83-56 64%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +28.4 +22.4 +9.7
  Dec 07, 2024 349   Northern Illinois W 101-57 96%     4 - 4 +29.0 +27.4 +3.8
  Dec 13, 2024 294   Nebraska Omaha W 78-58 91%     5 - 4 +9.8 +5.1 +6.1
  Dec 16, 2024 191   Montana W 104-76 82%     6 - 4 +23.4 +31.4 -6.8
  Dec 21, 2024 74   Washington St. L 68-76 40%     6 - 5 -0.4 +3.3 -4.1
  Dec 29, 2024 196   Southern Illinois W 76-66 82%    
  Jan 01, 2025 130   Belmont W 81-75 72%    
  Jan 04, 2025 224   @ Valparaiso W 76-71 70%    
  Jan 08, 2025 138   Murray St. W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 11, 2025 141   @ Illinois St. W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 14, 2025 315   Evansville W 79-62 94%    
  Jan 18, 2025 196   @ Southern Illinois W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 21, 2025 171   Missouri St. W 73-64 78%    
  Jan 25, 2025 150   @ Indiana St. W 79-77 56%    
  Jan 29, 2025 80   @ Drake L 62-67 31%    
  Feb 02, 2025 78   Bradley W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 05, 2025 171   @ Missouri St. W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 08, 2025 141   Illinois St. W 73-66 74%    
  Feb 11, 2025 150   Indiana St. W 82-74 76%    
  Feb 16, 2025 138   @ Murray St. W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 19, 2025 130   @ Belmont W 78-77 51%    
  Feb 23, 2025 80   Drake W 65-64 53%    
  Feb 26, 2025 192   Illinois-Chicago W 78-68 81%    
  Mar 02, 2025 78   @ Bradley L 69-74 31%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.8 5.3 4.4 2.5 0.9 0.1 18.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.9 6.8 6.9 3.5 0.8 0.1 21.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.8 7.5 5.7 1.7 0.2 0.0 19.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.0 3.6 0.7 0.0 13.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.5 2.7 0.4 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.6 7.6 10.5 13.2 14.6 14.5 12.4 9.0 5.2 2.6 0.9 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
18-2 96.6% 2.5    2.3 0.2 0.0
17-3 85.2% 4.4    3.3 1.1 0.1
16-4 58.8% 5.3    3.1 1.9 0.3 0.0
15-5 30.4% 3.8    1.4 1.7 0.6 0.1
14-6 9.0% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.5% 18.5 11.3 5.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 61.4% 50.9% 10.5% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.4%
19-1 0.9% 48.3% 46.3% 2.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 3.8%
18-2 2.6% 37.3% 37.1% 0.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.6 0.4%
17-3 5.2% 33.3% 33.3% 11.7 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.1 3.5
16-4 9.0% 27.4% 27.4% 12.0 0.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.5
15-5 12.4% 22.8% 22.8% 12.2 0.2 2.0 0.6 0.0 9.6
14-6 14.5% 18.8% 18.8% 12.4 0.1 1.6 1.0 0.1 11.8
13-7 14.6% 14.5% 14.5% 12.7 0.0 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 12.5
12-8 13.2% 10.5% 10.5% 12.9 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 11.8
11-9 10.5% 7.5% 7.5% 13.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.7
10-10 7.6% 5.6% 5.6% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.1
9-11 4.6% 3.1% 3.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.5
8-12 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 2.7
7-13 1.4% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.3
6-14 0.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.2% 16.1% 0.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.9 8.5 4.2 1.1 0.2 0.1 83.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 7.3 13.8 10.3 20.7 6.9 17.2 10.3 10.3 10.3