Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.4 #96
Expected Predictive Rating +6.0 #86
Pace 59.2 #365
Improvement -2.1 #293

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #208 B F B D B+
Defense #26 A- A+ B- B+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #46 1.22 #107 +4.8 #44
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #294 0.81 #106 -1.6 #257
Three Pointers 41% #189 1.04 #151 +0.3 #171
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #91 +3.4 #90
Freethrows 16.0 #253 66% #332 10.6 #301
Second Chance 21.1% #360 0.93 #307 0.20 #357
Turnovers 14.8% #73
Total Offense -1.6 #208

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #118 1.11 #116 -0.2 #190
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #215 0.69 #102 +1.1 #117
Three Pointers 40% #206 0.78 #2 +5.0 #26
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #34 +5.9 #35
Freethrows 14.4 #43 71% #121 10.2 #324
Second Chance 24.2% #18 0.86 #17 0.21 #10
Turnovers 18.3% #89
Total Defense +7.0 #26

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.3% #48 0.7% #230
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.4% #116 -12.3% #21
Possession Length 19.0 #335 18.4 #334
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #336 0.14 #59
Improvement -0.1 #189 -2.1 #302

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 17.1% 12.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 11.9 12.2
.500 or above 98.9% 99.6% 98.2%
.500 or above in Conference 94.3% 98.1% 91.0%
Conference Champion 17.9% 26.8% 10.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round14.6% 17.0% 12.6%
Second Round2.3% 2.8% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Away) - 45.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 43 - 6
Quad 39 - 411 - 10
Quad 410 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 211 Cal St. Northridge W 86 - 57 85%  +17  1 - 0 +23 +8 A D- C+ +15 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 173 South Dakota St. W 65 - 58 81%  +4  2 - 0 +3 -4 B+ F D+ +8 B- B- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 150 Furman W 70 - 54 78%  +10  3 - 0 +13 +2 B+ F A- +13 A+ A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 18 325 Northern Illinois W 70 - 57 95%  +3  4 - 0 -0 +0 A F F +1 C- A+ C+
 Sat, Nov 22 121 @UC Irvine W 70 - 69 OT 50%  +3  5 - 0 +6 +2 B- F A+ +4 A- D F
 Tue, Nov 25 251 Loyola Chicago W 72 - 51 84%  +18  6 - 0 +16 +5 C+ F A+ +14 A+ C+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 81 Tulsa L 60 - 63 43%  -3  6 - 1 +4 -6 D- D- B+ +10 A+ A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 104 Wichita St. L 69 - 74 OT 64%  -2  6 - 2 -3 -4 C+ F A+ +1 D- A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 124 Oakland W 75 - 63 73%  +5  7 - 2 +11 -6 C- F A +17 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 184 @Illinois-Chicago W 60 - 54 66%  +2  8 - 2 1 - 0 +7 -3 A- F F +11 A+ A- F
 Mon, Dec 22 41 @St. Mary's L 58 - 63 17%  +2  8 - 3 +10 +0 B F B+ +10 A+ D+ B
 Mon, Dec 29 188 Valparaiso W 58 - 48 84%  +3  9 - 3 2 - 0 +5 -3 C+ D- C+ +10 A+ A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 1 191 Indiana St. W 75 - 66 84%  +1  10 - 3 3 - 0 +4 +7 A- B- B- -2 F A+ C-
 Sun, Jan 4 263 @Evansville W 62 - 48 78%  +12  11 - 3 4 - 0 +11 -3 A- F F +15 B A+ A
 Wed, Jan 7 73 Belmont L 65 - 78 52%  -8  11 - 4 4 - 1 -8 +6 C+ D- A+ -16 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 116 @Bradley L 63 - 64 46% 
 Tue, Jan 13 184 Illinois-Chicago W 68 - 58 83% 
 Sat, Jan 17 188 @Valparaiso W 64 - 60 66% 
 Wed, Jan 21 85 @Illinois St. L 61 - 65 34% 
 Sat, Jan 24 91 Murray St. W 71 - 69 58% 
 Wed, Jan 28 130 @Southern Illinois W 64 - 63 52% 
 Sat, Jan 31 263 Evansville W 68 - 54 91% 
 Fri, Feb 6 116 Bradley W 66 - 61 67% 
 Mon, Feb 9 91 @Murray St. L 68 - 72 37% 
 Thu, Feb 12 73 @Belmont L 65 - 71 30% 
 Sun, Feb 15 169 Drake W 67 - 58 80% 
 Wed, Feb 18 191 @Indiana St. W 68 - 63 66% 
 Sat, Feb 21 130 Southern Illinois W 67 - 60 73% 
 Wed, Feb 25 85 Illinois St. W 64 - 62 56% 
 Sun, Mar 1 169 @Drake W 64 - 61 62% 
Totals 20 - 10 13 - 7 +5 -2 B F B +7 A- A+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 5.3 6.2 3.3 1.1 0.2 17.9 1st
2nd 0.2 3.0 7.6 6.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 18.9 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.4 8.9 6.3 1.1 0.0 20.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.6 8.1 5.4 0.9 18.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.3 3.6 0.6 0.0 13.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.7 7.0 12.0 15.5 18.0 16.5 12.9 7.8 3.5 1.1 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 98.6% 1.1    1.0 0.0
17-3 95.3% 3.3    2.9 0.5 0.0
16-4 79.8% 6.2    3.8 2.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 41.2% 5.3    1.8 2.4 1.0 0.1
14-6 10.2% 1.7    0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.9% 17.9 9.9 5.7 1.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.2% 50.0% 43.8% 6.3% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.1%
18-2 1.1% 39.0% 36.2% 2.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.7 4.4%
17-3 3.5% 31.5% 31.2% 0.3% 11.4 0.0 0.6 0.5 2.4 0.4%
16-4 7.8% 22.4% 22.4% 11.6 0.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.0
15-5 12.9% 22.1% 22.1% 11.9 0.6 2.0 0.2 0.0 10.1
14-6 16.5% 17.4% 17.4% 12.0 0.4 2.0 0.5 0.0 13.6
13-7 18.0% 14.2% 14.2% 12.2 0.1 1.8 0.6 0.0 15.4
12-8 15.5% 11.4% 11.4% 12.4 0.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 13.7
11-9 12.0% 6.9% 6.9% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 11.2
10-10 7.0% 4.5% 4.5% 12.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.7
9-11 3.7% 3.1% 3.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6
8-12 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
7-13 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 0.4
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 14.7% 14.6% 0.1% 12.0 85.3 0.1%