Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.9 94
Results Rating +3.6 109
Pace 59.1 364
Improvement -0.4 201

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 197 B- D B D- B-
Defense B+ 31 B+ A- B- B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 55 B- 62% 95 +4.3 44
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 262 B+ 44% 45 -0.5 207
Three Pointers 40% 209 C- 33% 236 -1.3 228
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 76 C+ +1.6 111
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 97
Second Chance F 21.4% 355 B- 1.11 63 D 0.24 326
Turnovers B 14.6% 53
Freethrows D- 0.25 343 D+ 70% 263 D- 0.17 350
Total Offense C- -1.1 197

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 49% 168 C+ 10.3% 138
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 36% 42 B- 3.8% 95
Three Pointers B- 87% 116 B 0.4% 63
Total C+ 58% 133 C+ 5.3% 141

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 202 B- 54% 81 -1.8 116
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 200 C+ 37% 136 -0.5 151
Three Pointers 42% 126 A- 29% 13 -2.5 76
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 179 B+ -4.7 34
1st FG Attempt B+ 0.93 40
Second Chance B+ 25.1% 23 A- 0.89 21 A- 0.22 15
Turnovers B- 18.1% 107
Freethrows B 0.26 51 C+ 72% 141 B 0.19 53
Total Defense B+ +7.0 31

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 126 C- 10.0% 209
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 19% 63 C- 3.9% 233
Three Pointers B- 80% 75 B 1.7% 52
Total B- 51% 89 C- 5.3% 198

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.9 332 18.6 336
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 345 0.12 28
Improvement +2.2 #90 -2.6 #307

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 104 92 78
Results Rating Rank 127 108 77
Conference Record 10 - 10 11 - 9 12 - 8
Conference Finish 7 5 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17% 19% 14%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 12.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round17% 19% 14%
Second Round2% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Home) - 65.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 53 - 8
Quad 37 - 510 - 12
Quad 410 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 159 Cal St. Northridge W 86 - 57 80% +17  92% 1 - 0 A+ +26 B +7 A- D+ B A+ +18 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 210 South Dakota St. W 65 - 58 86% +4  78% 2 - 0 C +1 D- -7 B F D A +9 B- C A+
 Fri, Nov 14 175 Furman W 70 - 54 82% +10  90% 3 - 0 B+ +12 C +0 B F A- A+ +13 A+ A C+
 Tue, Nov 18 323 Northern Illinois W 70 - 57 95% +3  66% 4 - 0 C -0 C -0 A F+ F C+ +2 D+ B+ B
 Sat, Nov 22 120 @UC Irvine W 70 - 69 OT 50% +3  65% 5 - 0 B- +7 C +1 C+ F A+ B+ +6 A D+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 282 Loyola Chicago W 72 - 51 88% +18  98% 6 - 0 B+ +14 C+ +3 C+ F+ A+ A+ +14 A+ C C-
 Wed, Nov 26 76 Tulsa L 60 - 63 43% -3  14% 6 - 1 C+ +5 F+ -9 F+ D+ B- A+ +13 A- A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 6 97 Wichita St. L 69 - 74 OT 63% -2  34% 6 - 2 C- -2 D -4 B- F A+ B- +2 D B+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 172 Oakland W 75 - 63 82% +5  77% 7 - 2 B +8 F+ -9 C- F A A+ +17 B+ A A+
 Wed, Dec 17 109 @Illinois-Chicago W 60 - 54 47% +2  58% 8 - 2 1 - 0 B+ +13 C- -2 A F F+ A+ +15 A+ B+ D-
 Mon, Dec 22 40 @St. Mary's L 58 - 63 17% +2  77% 8 - 3 B +11 C- -1 B D B A+ +11 A+ D- B-
 Mon, Dec 29 151 Valparaiso W 58 - 48 79% +3  79% 9 - 3 2 - 0 B- +7 D -5 C D+ C A+ +15 A+ A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 1 213 Indiana St. W 75 - 66 86% +1  57% 10 - 3 3 - 0 C+ +3 C+ +3 B B+ C+ C+ +1 F+ A+ D+
 Sun, Jan 4 295 @Evansville W 62 - 48 84% +12  91% 11 - 3 4 - 0 B +9 F+ -8 B F F A+ +19 A- A+ A
 Wed, Jan 7 67 Belmont L 65 - 78 52% -8  4% 11 - 4 4 - 1 D+ -8 C+ +2 C D- A+ F -13 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 112 @Bradley L 69 - 75 48% -2  15% 11 - 5 4 - 2 C +0 C -0 D+ D- A+ C +0 C B F
 Tue, Jan 13 109 Illinois-Chicago L 61 - 69 69% -0  44% 11 - 6 4 - 3 D+ -7 D -5 F B- B+ D+ -3 D- A F
 Sat, Jan 17 151 @Valparaiso L 44 - 54 60% -2  29% 11 - 7 4 - 4 D+ -7 F -21 F F+ A- A+ +12 A+ B D-
 Wed, Jan 21 103 @Illinois St. L 54 - 59 43% -5  5% 11 - 8 4 - 5 C+ +3 F -11 F C- B+ A+ +14 A+ C- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 123 Murray St. W 81 - 76 72% +4  68% 12 - 8 5 - 5 C+ +5 B +7 A+ F+ A C- -2 A D- D
 Wed, Jan 28 125 @Southern Illinois L 50 - 65 51% -6  16% 12 - 9 5 - 6 D -9 F -14 D+ F F B +4 D A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 295 Evansville W 71 - 55 93% +16  92% 13 - 9 6 - 6 B- +5 B +6 B A D B- +2 B C+ F
 Fri, Feb 6 112 Bradley W 61 - 49 71% +7  86% 14 - 9 7 - 6 B+ +12 D+ -4 D B A- A+ +18 A A+ A+
 Mon, Feb 9 123 @Murray St. W 89 - 60 51% +13  96% 15 - 9 8 - 6 A+ +35 A+ +20 A+ B- A+ A+ +17 A+ A+ D
 Thu, Feb 12 67 @Belmont L 86 - 91 30% -2  17% 15 - 10 8 - 7 B- +6 A +12 A D A- D -6 F A- D
 Sun, Feb 15 193 Drake W 86 - 62 85% +11  82% 16 - 10 9 - 7 A +19 A +12 A+ C- A- A- +8 B- A+ C+
 Wed, Feb 18 213 @Indiana St. W 81 - 60 71% +3  62% 17 - 10 10 - 7 A +21 A +12 A+ F A A +11 B+ B- A+
 Sat, Feb 21 125 Southern Illinois L 57 - 59 73% -5  4% 17 - 11 10 - 8 C- -2 D -6 C- B F+ B- +3 D- D+ A+
 Wed, Feb 25 103 Illinois St. W 65 - 61 65%
 Sun, Mar 1 193 @Drake W 68 - 63 68%
Totals 18 - 12 11 - 9 +6 C- -1 D+ C+ B- B+ +7 C- D+ D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B- B+ C- C+ 43% 30% 40% B- B- F B- D B D- D+ D- B+ B- C+ A- B+ 38% 20% 42% C B+ B+ A- A- B- B C+ B
1.07 62% 44% 33% +2 +1 1.07 21% 1.1 .24 15% .25 70% .17 0.99 54% 37% 29% -5 0 0.93 25% 0.9 .22 18% .26 72% .18
Nov
6		 Cal St. Northridge B A F B+ A- 42% 8% 49% A A- F A+ D+ B F B+ F A+ A+ D+ B+ A+ 36% 21% 43% A- A+ B A+ A+ A+ F F F
1.20 68% 20% 38% +6 +2 1.17 18% 1.5 .27 14% .16 80% .13 0.79 29% 40% 30% -13 0 0.77 29% 0.5 .13 28% .44 74% .33
Nov
9		 South Dakota St. D- B F C+ C+ 57% 5% 39% A+ B F F F D A F C- A F C+ A+ B- 39% 20% 41% C B- F A+ C A+ D+ A- C
1.02 64% 0% 35% +2 +3 1.14 16% 0.8 .13 17% .38 55% .21 0.91 69% 38% 24% -2 0 0.98 40% 0.8 .30 27% .30 64% .19
Nov
14		 Furman C B A+ D- B 45% 19% 36% B- B F+ F F A- B+ A+ A A+ F F+ A+ A+ 39% 4% 57% F+ A+ A A A C+ A- A+ A
1.09 62% 56% 29% +3 +1 1.09 22% 0.7 .16 11% .30 82% .24 0.84 74% 50% 14% -10 +2 0.86 22% 0.8 .17 20% .22 55% .12
Nov
18		 Northern Illinois C A A+ C+ A 48% 10% 43% B A C F F+ F A+ D- A+ C+ A+ F F C 54% 5% 41% F D+ B A B+ B C- D C-
1.13 74% 50% 35% +9 +2 1.25 31% 0.8 .23 24% .51 67% .34 0.92 41% 50% 41% -4 +3 1.00 27% 0.6 .17 24% .34 69% .23
Nov
22		 UC Irvine C F+ A- C C+ 35% 21% 44% C+ C+ F+ F F A+ F C- F B+ B A+ C+ A 44% 38% 18% B+ A A- F D+ F F A- F+
0.98 41% 46% 33% -5 0 0.92 24% 0.5 .12 11% .16 70% .11 0.96 50% 26% 33% -8 -2 0.82 25% 1.4 .35 13% .42 62% .26
Nov
25		 Loyola Chicago C+ C+ C+ B B- 27% 23% 50% D C+ F A+ F+ A+ D+ F F+ A+ A+ A C+ A+ 34% 16% 50% B A+ C C C C- C+ A B
1.17 57% 42% 38% +4 -1 1.08 12% 1.8 .21 5% .26 67% .17 0.83 20% 29% 32% -16 0 0.70 32% 0.9 .29 18% .30 60% .18
Nov
26		 Tulsa F+ B- F F F+ 41% 20% 39% C+ F+ D- A- D+ B- F D+ F A+ C- B B B+ 33% 13% 54% A- A- A+ C+ A+ C+ B+ F C
0.95 62% 20% 25% -7 0 0.88 19% 1.3 .25 14% .19 70% .13 1.00 60% 33% 32% -2 +1 1.00 13% 1.3 .17 16% .28 93% .26
Dec
6		 Wichita St. D C- A+ F C- 58% 17% 25% A+ B- D- F F A+ A- F C B- D- A D- D- 35% 22% 43% B- D A- C B+ A B- F C-
0.98 55% 56% 23% -3 +2 1.00 22% 0.5 .11 11% .35 55% .19 1.05 65% 27% 38% +3 0 1.06 32% 1.0 .32 20% .30 76% .23
Dec
13		 Oakland F+ C D D+ D 48% 15% 37% A- C- F F F A A+ F A A+ B+ B A+ A+ 62% 6% 33% F B+ A B A A+ C- A+ B
1.03 60% 38% 32% 0 +1 1.04 22% 0.8 .16 11% .42 59% .25 0.86 50% 33% 24% -10 +4 0.88 23% 1.0 .23 23% .34 63% .21
Dec
17		 Illinois-Chicago C- C- A A+ A+ 21% 26% 52% F A D- F F F+ F+ A D A+ B A+ A+ A+ 48% 16% 36% F+ A+ A- C+ B+ D- A+ A A+
0.98 56% 45% 41% +7 -2 1.12 29% 0.8 .21 24% .24 82% .19 0.88 50% 13% 17% -17 +1 0.70 31% 1.0 .31 15% .21 64% .13
Dec
22		 St. Mary's C- D+ A C- B- 42% 21% 37% B- B F A+ D B F B- F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 21% 40% C+ A+ D D D- B- F F F
0.94 50% 45% 32% -3 0 0.96 10% 1.7 .17 13% .07 75% .06 1.02 41% 11% 18% -22 0 0.58 41% 1.2 .49 18% .53 93% .49
Dec
29		 Valparaiso D C- D- C C- 53% 18% 30% B+ C F A+ D+ C A- A A A+ A- D A+ A+ 40% 21% 38% F A+ D A+ A+ C- A- F B-
1.01 57% 29% 33% -2 +1 1.00 15% 1.5 .23 17% .38 78% .29 0.83 47% 40% 17% -14 0 0.74 35% 0.3 .09 14% .28 79% .22
Jan
1		 Indiana St. C+ C+ A+ F C+ 65% 12% 22% A+ B C A B+ C+ C+ D- C C+ F F A+ F+ 49% 6% 45% D F+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+
1.16 59% 83% 18% +1 +3 1.10 33% 1.2 .40 14% .27 67% .18 1.02 81% 67% 25% +7 +3 1.21 7% 0.0 .00 17% .07 50% .04
Jan
4		 Evansville F+ F B A+ B 30% 21% 49% C B F F F F D F F+ A+ F C+ A+ A 42% 26% 33% D- A- A+ B- A+ A C B- C+
0.97 46% 44% 48% +8 -1 1.16 21% 0.8 .17 25% .23 64% .15 0.75 72% 36% 7% -8 0 0.86 7% 1.0 .07 24% .27 69% .18
Jan
7		 Belmont C+ A F D C- 29% 8% 63% B+ C F B D- A+ F D- F F F+ F F F 49% 9% 42% D F A- F+ B- F B- A+ A-
1.11 67% 0% 31% -3 +1 0.98 22% 1.1 .24 5% .18 70% .13 1.33 73% 50% 47% +17 +2 1.40 22% 1.4 .30 10% .29 53% .15
Jan
10		 Bradley C D+ C C C- 24% 33% 43% D- D+ F A+ D- A+ D F F+ C F F+ B+ C- 26% 28% 46% A- C B B- B F F A+ F+
1.03 54% 39% 35% 0 -3 0.96 16% 1.3 .21 7% .29 61% .18 1.12 69% 43% 30% +2 -2 1.02 23% 1.0 .23 7% .45 64% .29
Jan
13		 Illinois-Chicago D C+ C- F F 39% 14% 48% B- F C- A B- B+ C+ A+ B+ D+ F F+ A+ F+ 45% 27% 29% C+ D- A+ F A F C A+ A-
0.97 59% 33% 14% -14 +1 0.75 33% 1.2 .39 18% .31 88% .27 1.10 73% 46% 21% +3 0 1.08 17% 1.6 .28 10% .32 56% .18
Jan
17		 Valparaiso F B+ F F F 38% 29% 33% D F F+ F F+ A- F F F A+ A A- A+ A+ 21% 42% 37% A+ A+ A+ F B D- D+ D- D-
0.75 67% 7% 19% -13 -1 0.73 24% 0.7 .17 14% .14 29% .04 0.92 44% 28% 25% -12 -4 0.70 23% 1.3 .29 12% .39 75% .29
Jan
21		 Illinois St. F F C- F F 33% 33% 35% D+ F F+ A+ C- B+ D A+ C- A+ A C A A+ 20% 20% 61% B+ A+ D B C- A+ F F F
0.84 41% 35% 17% -15 -2 0.67 18% 1.3 .23 14% .25 79% .20 0.91 50% 38% 28% -7 -1 0.85 31% 1.0 .31 26% .38 89% .34
Jan
24		 Murray St. B A+ B+ A+ A+ 55% 22% 22% B A+ F C- F+ A A- F C C- D A+ A- A 33% 25% 41% A- A D D+ D- D C- F D-
1.22 70% 45% 45% +12 +1 1.29 22% 1.0 .22 12% .36 57% .21 1.15 65% 23% 29% -5 -1 0.90 36% 1.2 .44 14% .35 85% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Southern Illinois F D+ D F D- 51% 13% 36% A D+ F F F F C- F D B B F F F 31% 39% 31% A+ D A- A+ A+ D+ D A+ B+
0.76 52% 33% 25% -8 +2 0.89 10% 0.7 .06 26% .27 62% .16 0.99 53% 53% 40% +7 -3 1.10 24% 0.4 .09 15% .34 47% .16
Jan
31		 Evansville B A+ A D- B+ 31% 16% 53% B- B D+ A+ A D F C+ F B- C- F A+ B- 17% 30% 52% A- B B- D C+ F A+ F A
1.22 87% 50% 31% +8 0 1.18 28% 1.7 .48 19% .08 75% .06 0.95 63% 50% 25% -3 -3 0.91 19% 1.2 .23 14% .14 86% .12
Feb
6		 Bradley D+ D+ B+ F F+ 50% 20% 30% A D C- A+ B A- D+ C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ 33% 13% 54% D- A A+ A+ A+ A+ B- F D
1.02 55% 44% 23% -5 +1 0.93 29% 1.2 .35 15% .30 73% .22 0.82 31% 20% 38% -8 +1 0.87 14% 0.8 .11 27% .30 92% .27
Feb
9		 Murray St. A+ A A+ A A+ 48% 22% 29% B- A+ C+ B- B- A+ F A+ F A+ A+ F A+ A+ 41% 17% 43% C- A+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ B+ A+
1.36 68% 69% 41% +15 0 1.33 35% 1.1 .38 9% .03 100% .03 0.92 45% 67% 22% -8 +1 0.87 22% 0.9 .19 14% .18 70% .12
Feb
12		 Belmont A B A+ B- A 41% 16% 43% B+ A F A+ D A- A+ A+ A+ D C- F F F 38% 8% 55% C- F A+ F A- D C+ F D
1.21 62% 50% 36% +5 +1 1.14 18% 1.4 .25 14% .39 96% .38 1.28 65% 100% 45% +16 +2 1.38 13% 2.0 .25 15% .30 83% .25
Feb
15		 Drake A A A+ A- A+ 33% 15% 52% B A+ F A+ C- A- F A+ C A- A F B- A- 48% 6% 46% F B- A A+ A+ C+ C B+ B-
1.31 71% 63% 41% +13 0 1.29 19% 1.4 .26 11% .22 92% .20 0.94 48% 67% 32% -5 +3 0.98 18% 0.8 .15 15% .31 65% .20
Feb
18		 Indiana St. A C A+ A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% B+ A+ F A+ F A F F F A A- F B B+ 49% 9% 43% C- B+ F A+ B- A+ C- A+ B-
1.25 57% 86% 46% +14 +1 1.32 11% 1.7 .18 11% .10 33% .03 0.92 52% 50% 30% -4 +2 0.98 36% 0.6 .22 26% .27 54% .15
Feb
21		 Southern Illinois D C B F C 36% 31% 33% D- C- B- B B F+ F A D- B- D C F+ D- 38% 27% 36% C D- D- B- D+ A+ A+ A+ A+
0.93 56% 43% 27% -3 -2 0.93 31% 1.1 .34 23% .19 78% .15 0.96 65% 42% 38% +5 -1 1.11 35% 0.9 .31 29% .07 33% .02



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 20.5 20.5 3rd
4th 2.5 24.0 26.5 4th
5th 17.7 17.7 5th
6th 1.3 18.9 20.2 6th
7th 10.4 4.7 15.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 11.7 43.8 44.5 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 44.5% 19.9% 19.9% 0.0% 12.0 1.0 6.8 1.1 35.7 0.0%
11-9 43.8% 16.1% 16.1% 12.3 0.2 4.7 2.2 0.0 36.7
10-10 11.7% 10.6% 10.6% 12.5 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.0 10.5
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.2% 17.2% 0.0% 12.2 82.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.9% 100.0% 12.0 11.5 76.6 11.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.7% 0.1% 11.0 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 14.6%
Lose Out 2.5%