Penn
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.0#292
Expected Predictive Rating-8.2#299
Pace64.4#295
Improvement+1.6#94

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#228
First Shot-2.2#234
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#181
Layup/Dunks+0.8#151
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#362
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#99
Freethrows-0.9#239
Improvement-0.3#196

Defense
Total Defense-4.9#324
First Shot-4.3#316
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#231
Layups/Dunks-3.2#300
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#121
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#337
Freethrows+2.6#29
Improvement+1.9#46
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.6% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.2 15.8
.500 or above 0.7% 4.7% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 11.7% 21.1% 11.6%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.4% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 45.7% 32.0% 45.9%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
First Round0.4% 1.6% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn St. (Away) - 1.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 32 - 72 - 14
Quad 46 - 58 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 352   @ NJIT W 58-57 60%     1 - 0 -8.6 -11.4 +2.9
  Nov 07, 2024 359   Maryland Eastern Shore W 87-84 83%     2 - 0 -14.1 +5.6 -19.7
  Nov 12, 2024 267   @ Lafayette L 63-65 34%     2 - 1 -4.7 +3.3 -8.4
  Nov 15, 2024 86   Saint Joseph's L 69-86 16%     2 - 2 -13.4 +3.6 -18.2
  Nov 19, 2024 52   @ Villanova L 49-93 4%     2 - 3 -30.6 -18.0 -16.2
  Nov 29, 2024 318   Navy L 78-86 68%     2 - 4 -19.9 -1.8 -18.1
  Nov 30, 2024 217   Maine W 77-64 46%     3 - 4 +7.1 +9.4 -1.3
  Dec 01, 2024 181   Elon L 53-68 39%     3 - 5 -19.0 -13.7 -7.9
  Dec 07, 2024 154   Drexel L 47-60 25%     3 - 6 -12.9 -21.5 +7.6
  Dec 09, 2024 57   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 47-66 5%     3 - 7 -6.6 -13.2 +4.9
  Dec 20, 2024 303   Rider W 79-66 64%     4 - 7 +2.2 +10.9 -7.0
  Dec 22, 2024 82   @ George Mason L 53-85 7%     4 - 8 -21.9 -11.2 -11.3
  Dec 29, 2024 32   @ Penn St. L 63-86 2%    
  Jan 11, 2025 280   @ Dartmouth L 70-74 37%    
  Jan 18, 2025 131   Cornell L 75-81 30%    
  Jan 20, 2025 243   @ Harvard L 67-72 31%    
  Jan 25, 2025 179   Columbia L 73-76 39%    
  Jan 31, 2025 174   Brown L 67-70 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 98   Yale L 68-77 20%    
  Feb 07, 2025 110   Princeton L 69-76 25%    
  Feb 14, 2025 98   @ Yale L 65-80 8%    
  Feb 15, 2025 174   @ Brown L 64-73 20%    
  Feb 21, 2025 280   Dartmouth W 73-71 59%    
  Feb 22, 2025 243   Harvard W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 28, 2025 131   @ Cornell L 72-84 15%    
  Mar 01, 2025 179   @ Columbia L 70-79 21%    
  Mar 08, 2025 110   @ Princeton L 66-79 11%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 4 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.5 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 3.3 1.0 0.0 6.7 4th
5th 0.4 3.8 6.0 1.7 0.1 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 6.0 8.6 2.8 0.2 18.6 6th
7th 0.1 2.7 9.2 10.2 3.3 0.2 25.7 7th
8th 1.9 6.9 11.6 8.7 2.4 0.1 31.6 8th
Total 1.9 7.0 14.4 18.8 19.0 15.9 11.2 6.4 3.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 80.0% 0.0    0.0
11-3 79.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
10-4 41.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
9-5 9.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-3 0.1% 17.9% 17.9% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-4 0.4% 14.9% 14.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
9-5 1.4% 7.1% 7.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.3
8-6 3.3% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 3.1
7-7 6.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 6.2
6-8 11.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.2
5-9 15.9% 15.9
4-10 19.0% 19.0
3-11 18.8% 18.8
2-12 14.4% 14.4
1-13 7.0% 7.0
0-14 1.9% 1.9
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.9%