Penn
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.0 #216
Expected Predictive Rating -2.2 #205
Pace 72.5 #87
Improvement +0.9 #122

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #175 C C+ C C+ D-
Defense #261 D C+ D B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #281 1.05 #298 -4.1 #312
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #49 0.77 #156 +3.0 #53
Three Pointers 38% #259 1.12 #48 +0.3 #170
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #195 -0.8 #195
Freethrows 18.8 #106 71% #237 13.3 #131
Second Chance 30.4% #195 1.16 #63 0.35 #114
Turnovers 17.1% #211
Total Offense -0.2 #175

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #76 1.28 #319 -5.1 #335
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #99 0.91 #345 -2.8 #345
Three Pointers 34% #336 0.95 #110 +4.6 #27
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #285 -3.4 #287
Freethrows 14.8 #58 70% #67 10.3 #320
Second Chance 32.0% #231 0.94 #63 0.30 #139
Turnovers 14.9% #283
Total Defense -2.9 #261

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.4% #319 0.0% #169
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.9% #161 6.5% #298
Possession Length 16.3 #87 17.3 #189
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #312 0.21 #292
Improvement +1.1 #109 -0.2 #201

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.6% 4.5% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 14.8
.500 or above 26.3% 33.2% 12.3%
.500 or above in Conference 34.4% 42.8% 17.4%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.2% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 23.4% 15.3% 39.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round3.5% 4.5% 1.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Brown (Home) - 67.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 63 - 11
Quad 49 - 312 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 241 @American L 78 - 84 44%  -3  0 - 1 -7 -2 C- F F -5 F C C+
 Tue, Nov 11 66 @Providence L 81 - 106 9%  -10  0 - 2 -13 +1 F C A- -12 F F A+
 Mon, Nov 17 185 Saint Joseph's W 83 - 74 57%  +1  1 - 2 +4 +4 A- F F -0 F A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 21 248 @Drexel W 84 - 68 45%  +9  2 - 2 +14 +15 B A+ D+ -0 B- C F
 Fri, Nov 28 237 Merrimack W 77 - 65 66%  +4  3 - 2 +5 +4 B C B +1 A- C F
 Sat, Nov 29 217 La Salle W 73 - 71 62%  -3  4 - 2 -4 +4 B A C- -8 A+ F D-
 Sun, Nov 30 109 Hofstra L 60 - 77 33%  -4  4 - 3 -16 -10 F B- C+ -6 F D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 31 Villanova L 63 - 90 6%  -15  4 - 4 -13 +0 C B- D+ -15 F A- C
 Mon, Dec 8 318 Lafayette W 74 - 72 81%  +6  5 - 4 -10 -7 D- F C -4 F A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 20 131 @Rutgers L 69 - 70 23%  +4  5 - 5 +4 +1 F A+ D- +3 C A+ F
 Sun, Dec 28 92 @George Mason L 79 - 83 13%  -3  5 - 6 +5 +12 A+ C- A+ -7 D F F
 Wed, Dec 31 351 NJIT W 80 - 61 88%  +6  6 - 6 +3 +2 A F D- +1 C A+ C
 Mon, Jan 5 242 @Princeton L 76 - 78 44%  +1  6 - 7 0 - 1 -4 +8 F A+ F -12 F A F
 Sat, Jan 10 247 Brown W 73 - 68 67% 
 Sat, Jan 17 230 @Dartmouth L 79 - 81 41% 
 Mon, Jan 19 196 @Harvard L 72 - 76 36% 
 Sat, Jan 24 80 Yale L 77 - 84 25% 
 Fri, Jan 30 139 @Columbia L 75 - 82 24% 
 Sat, Jan 31 168 @Cornell L 88 - 93 32% 
 Sat, Feb 7 242 Princeton W 76 - 71 66% 
 Fri, Feb 13 139 Columbia L 78 - 79 45% 
 Sat, Feb 14 168 Cornell W 91 - 90 53% 
 Sat, Feb 21 80 @Yale L 74 - 87 12% 
 Fri, Feb 27 230 Dartmouth W 82 - 78 63% 
 Sat, Feb 28 196 Harvard W 75 - 73 58% 
 Fri, Mar 6 247 @Brown L 70 - 71 45% 
Totals 12 - 14 6 - 8 -3 +0 C C+ C -3 D C+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.4 2.6 3.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.5 5.1 5.7 1.9 0.2 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.3 5.7 7.5 1.7 0.1 15.3 4th
5th 0.2 4.5 9.3 2.1 0.1 16.1 5th
6th 0.2 3.7 9.5 3.1 0.1 16.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.2 8.2 3.4 0.1 15.3 7th
8th 0.3 1.4 3.7 5.2 2.6 0.2 13.4 8th
Total 0.3 1.4 4.1 8.6 14.6 17.9 18.6 15.1 10.1 5.9 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-2 91.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
11-3 67.6% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
10-4 27.2% 0.7    0.2 0.4 0.1
9-5 5.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-2 0.1% 41.7% 41.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-3 0.7% 19.4% 19.4% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
10-4 2.4% 17.2% 17.2% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.0
9-5 5.9% 14.4% 14.4% 14.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 5.1
8-6 10.1% 10.8% 10.8% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 9.0
7-7 15.1% 5.4% 5.4% 15.1 0.0 0.7 0.1 14.3
6-8 18.6% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 18.4
5-9 17.9% 17.9
4-10 14.6% 14.6
3-11 8.6% 8.6
2-12 4.1% 4.1
1-13 1.4% 1.4
0-14 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 14.6 96.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%