Quinnipiac
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#187
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#189
Pace76.6#19
Improvement+5.3#14

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#252
First Shot-3.2#270
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#175
Layup/Dunks-0.6#209
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#80
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#302
Freethrows-0.2#187
Improvement+2.0#77

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#129
First Shot+1.7#117
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#188
Layups/Dunks+0.8#138
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#178
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#182
Freethrows+0.3#163
Improvement+3.3#28
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.6% 25.0% 20.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 98.2% 98.7% 92.4%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 43.2% 45.3% 19.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.2% 2.0% 3.4%
First Round23.5% 24.0% 18.5%
Second Round0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Canisius (Home) - 91.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 418 - 520 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 69   @ Yale L 62-88 14%     0 - 1 -15.7 -8.6 -6.3
  Nov 09, 2024 14   @ St. John's L 73-96 4%     0 - 2 -3.4 +5.5 -6.2
  Nov 15, 2024 199   Maine W 58-55 61%     1 - 2 -1.2 -11.5 +10.4
  Nov 19, 2024 263   @ Navy W 74-63 57%     2 - 2 +7.8 +2.8 +5.4
  Nov 23, 2024 203   @ Umass Lowell L 70-80 43%     2 - 3 -9.6 -7.7 -1.6
  Nov 25, 2024 105   @ Saint Louis L 67-81 22%     2 - 4 -7.2 -10.5 +5.1
  Dec 01, 2024 321   @ Stonehill L 74-88 72%     2 - 5 -21.2 +1.7 -23.7
  Dec 06, 2024 303   @ Rider W 72-67 66%     3 - 5 1 - 0 -0.5 +2.9 -3.0
  Dec 08, 2024 288   Sacred Heart W 83-73 78%     4 - 5 2 - 0 +0.6 +1.4 -1.2
  Dec 17, 2024 319   Holy Cross L 69-70 84%     4 - 6 -12.8 -10.0 -2.9
  Dec 21, 2024 209   @ Central Connecticut St. L 80-84 45%     4 - 7 -4.0 +7.7 -11.6
  Dec 29, 2024 174   Hofstra W 75-69 OT 57%     5 - 7 +3.0 -3.3 +5.6
  Jan 03, 2025 272   @ St. Peter's W 59-46 59%     6 - 7 3 - 0 +9.3 -5.4 +16.0
  Jan 05, 2025 211   @ Marist L 62-69 45%     6 - 8 3 - 1 -7.2 -9.8 +3.0
  Jan 10, 2025 246   Siena W 72-53 73%     7 - 8 4 - 1 +11.4 -5.0 +16.1
  Jan 12, 2025 256   @ Iona W 63-62 57%     8 - 8 5 - 1 -2.0 -9.0 +7.0
  Jan 16, 2025 198   Merrimack W 81-76 61%     9 - 8 6 - 1 +0.8 +8.1 -7.4
  Jan 18, 2025 260   @ Mount St. Mary's W 91-57 57%     10 - 8 7 - 1 +30.9 +20.6 +11.1
  Jan 25, 2025 303   Rider W 75-64 81%     11 - 8 8 - 1 +0.5 -0.7 +1.6
  Jan 31, 2025 326   Fairfield W 81-69 85%     12 - 8 9 - 1 -0.6 -3.3 +2.2
  Feb 02, 2025 246   @ Siena L 75-84 55%     12 - 9 9 - 2 -11.6 -7.3 -3.2
  Feb 06, 2025 352   Canisius W 81-67 92%    
  Feb 08, 2025 316   Niagara W 76-66 84%    
  Feb 14, 2025 288   @ Sacred Heart W 80-77 60%    
  Feb 16, 2025 256   Iona W 76-69 74%    
  Feb 23, 2025 271   @ Manhattan W 78-76 57%    
  Feb 28, 2025 272   St. Peter's W 68-61 76%    
  Mar 02, 2025 198   @ Merrimack L 66-68 41%    
  Mar 06, 2025 260   Mount St. Mary's W 76-69 75%    
  Mar 08, 2025 326   @ Fairfield W 77-71 71%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 6.9 16.2 14.5 4.7 43.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 8.0 14.9 9.9 1.8 0.1 36.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.2 7.5 3.4 0.4 17.9 3rd
4th 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.1 2.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 7.6 16.4 25.2 26.5 16.3 4.7 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 98.3% 4.7    4.3 0.4
17-3 89.3% 14.5    10.4 4.1 0.1
16-4 61.0% 16.2    7.2 7.8 1.2
15-5 27.3% 6.9    1.5 3.6 1.8 0.0
14-6 5.3% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 43.2% 43.2 23.5 16.2 3.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 4.7% 33.5% 33.5% 13.5 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 3.2
17-3 16.3% 29.5% 29.5% 14.6 0.2 1.8 2.6 0.2 11.5
16-4 26.5% 27.4% 27.4% 15.1 0.0 1.0 4.5 1.7 19.2
15-5 25.2% 22.5% 22.5% 15.5 0.2 2.5 3.0 19.6
14-6 16.4% 21.8% 21.8% 15.7 0.0 1.1 2.4 12.8
13-7 7.6% 17.1% 17.1% 15.9 0.2 1.2 6.3
12-8 2.6% 11.9% 11.9% 15.7 0.1 0.2 2.3
11-9 0.6% 13.1% 13.1% 16.0 0.1 0.5
10-10 0.1% 0.1
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.6% 24.6% 0.0% 15.1 0.1 1.0 3.7 11.2 8.6 75.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 13.5 6.3 47.8 39.0 6.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%