Quinnipiac
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.2 #158
Expected Predictive Rating +4.3 #107
Pace 77.0 #31
Improvement +0.9 #126

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #211 C- C+ C- C- D+
Defense #119 C D+ C B+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #197 1.16 #175 -0.4 #196
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #77 0.65 #300 +0.7 #141
Three Pointers 36% #285 1.03 #154 -2.1 #265
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #217 -1.8 #223
Freethrows 15.9 #259 73% #178 11.6 #239
Second Chance 32.5% #129 1.10 #123 0.36 #105
Turnovers 17.4% #233
Total Offense -1.7 #211

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #104 1.19 #216 -2.3 #258
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #214 0.63 #37 +1.7 #74
Three Pointers 40% #224 0.99 #156 +1.2 #137
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #154 +0.5 #153
Freethrows 14.5 #47 71% #134 10.4 #315
Second Chance 36.0% #338 0.99 #121 0.36 #267
Turnovers 17.2% #144
Total Defense +1.5 #119

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.5% #278 0.8% #247
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.8% #201 -1.9% #144
Possession Length 16.6 #119 17.1 #161
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #54 0.18 #194
Improvement +0.7 #141 +0.2 #167

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.5% 25.4% 20.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.2
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.7% 98.3%
Conference Champion 43.3% 51.7% 28.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round23.5% 25.4% 20.3%
Second Round0.9% 1.0% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Away) - 63.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 35 - 6
Quad 417 - 422 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 21 @St. John's L 74 - 108 5%  -21  0 - 1 -15 -1 B- F F -8 F D+ B
 Thu, Nov 6 269 Central Connecticut St. W 71 - 49 81%  +12  1 - 1 +13 -6 D F A+ +19 A+ C- D
 Tue, Nov 11 80 Yale L 60 - 97 33%  -18  1 - 2 -33 -16 F C F -16 F F A
 Sun, Nov 16 339 @Maine W 70 - 64 79%  -2  2 - 2 -3 -2 F B- C -1 F A+ F
 Sun, Nov 23 82 @Pittsburgh W 83 - 75 17%  +5  3 - 2 +18 +16 A+ A F +2 D+ D A+
 Tue, Nov 25 50 @Central Florida L 91 - 102 10%  -2  3 - 3 +3 +14 A+ F A+ -10 D+ B- D-
 Sun, Nov 30 340 Stonehill W 76 - 62 90%  +8  4 - 3 -1 +0 A+ F F -0 B+ F B-
 Fri, Dec 5 214 @Iona W 89 - 68 49%  +7  5 - 3 1 - 0 +21 +14 B A+ C- +6 A+ F C
 Sun, Dec 7 348 Rider W 72 - 58 91%  +15  6 - 3 2 - 0 -1 -5 F B B- +4 C- C+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 286 Umass Lowell W 75 - 71 82%  -1  7 - 3 -6 -9 F B- C +3 F A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 194 @Monmouth W 85 - 75 46%  +15  8 - 3 +11 +11 B B+ B+ -1 C- A+ B
 Sun, Dec 21 109 @Hofstra L 66 - 74 24%  -2  8 - 4 -1 -1 F A- A+ +0 A+ F B-
 Mon, Dec 29 140 Marist W 64 - 58 57%  +3  9 - 4 3 - 0 +4 -3 F A+ F +8 A+ C- A+
 Fri, Jan 2 311 @Manhattan L 79 - 80 71%  +8  9 - 5 3 - 1 -7 -1 F A+ F -6 F B D+
 Sun, Jan 4 292 Mount St. Mary's W 80 - 69 83%  +9  10 - 5 4 - 1 +1 +3 B+ D+ F -3 B+ F D+
 Sun, Jan 11 285 @Sacred Heart W 81 - 77 64% 
 Wed, Jan 14 259 St. Peter's W 75 - 67 79% 
 Sat, Jan 17 237 @Merrimack W 71 - 70 54% 
 Mon, Jan 19 311 Manhattan W 86 - 74 86% 
 Thu, Jan 22 292 @Mount St. Mary's W 77 - 73 65% 
 Sat, Jan 24 140 @Marist L 67 - 71 34% 
 Fri, Jan 30 285 Sacred Heart W 84 - 74 81% 
 Sun, Feb 1 282 @Fairfield W 80 - 76 63% 
 Thu, Feb 5 331 Canisius W 78 - 65 89% 
 Sat, Feb 7 354 Niagara W 79 - 63 93% 
 Fri, Feb 13 190 @Siena L 72 - 73 46% 
 Sun, Feb 15 237 Merrimack W 74 - 67 74% 
 Sun, Feb 22 282 Fairfield W 83 - 73 81% 
 Fri, Feb 27 354 @Niagara W 76 - 66 82% 
 Sun, Mar 1 331 @Canisius W 75 - 68 75% 
Totals 21 - 9 15 - 5 +0 -2 C- C+ C- +2 C D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.5 8.9 14.0 11.4 5.2 1.1 43.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 2.6 8.5 9.4 3.9 0.5 25.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 5.8 5.5 1.4 0.1 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.3 3.6 0.9 8.4 4th
5th 0.2 1.7 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.3 2.3 6th
7th 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 4.0 7.5 12.8 17.4 19.7 18.0 11.8 5.2 1.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1
18-2 100.0% 5.2    5.1 0.1
17-3 96.1% 11.4    9.7 1.6 0.0
16-4 77.8% 14.0    8.8 4.7 0.4 0.0
15-5 45.1% 8.9    3.2 4.1 1.5 0.2
14-6 14.3% 2.5    0.4 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 43.3% 43.3 28.3 11.4 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 1.1% 41.5% 41.5% 12.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7
18-2 5.2% 35.8% 35.8% 13.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 3.3
17-3 11.8% 34.6% 34.6% 13.4 0.3 1.9 1.7 0.2 7.7
16-4 18.0% 30.0% 30.0% 13.8 0.1 1.6 3.0 0.7 0.0 12.6
15-5 19.7% 23.6% 23.6% 14.0 0.0 1.0 2.5 1.2 0.0 15.1
14-6 17.4% 20.9% 20.9% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.4 0.1 13.8
13-7 12.8% 14.7% 14.7% 14.6 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.1 10.9
12-8 7.5% 14.3% 14.3% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 6.4
11-9 4.0% 9.3% 9.3% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.6
10-10 1.7% 5.8% 5.8% 15.3 0.1 0.0 1.6
9-11 0.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 23.5% 23.5% 0.0% 13.9 76.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 12.2 12.9 60.2 25.8 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%