Quinnipiac
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.0 192
Results Rating -0.3 162
Pace 74.9 34
Improvement -1.3 234

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 276 D+ C+ C D+ C-
Defense C+ 117 C C- C C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 171 D+ 54% 278 -1.2 231
2 Pt. Jumpers 45% 97 D- 31% 346 -0.1 183
Three Pointers 36% 275 C 34% 159 -2.1 253
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 250 D+ -2.9 286
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 290
Second Chance C+ 31.7% 144 C 1.03 176 C+ 0.33 139
Turnovers C 17.0% 192
Freethrows D+ 0.28 249 D+ 70% 265 D+ 0.20 264
Total Offense D+ -3.9 276

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 128 F 15.7% 354
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 195 C 5.6% 223
Three Pointers D- 76% 329 B- 0.5% 79
Total C- 54% 226 F+ 7.7% 342

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 86 C+ 56% 131 +1.5 225
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 204 A 30% 6 -1.9 39
Three Pointers 38% 263 D 37% 311 +0.4 199
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.4 246 C -0.5 164
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 175
Second Chance D+ 32.9% 286 C+ 1.00 142 C- 0.33 233
Turnovers C 17.2% 158
Freethrows C+ 0.28 117 C 72% 177 C+ 0.20 119
Total Defense C+ +1.9 117

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 222 C+ 12.7% 101
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 79 B- 6.3% 91
Three Pointers C- 86% 238 C 1.1% 130
Total C- 58% 228 B- 7.0% 77

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.2 68 17.5 234
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 90 0.17 169
Improvement -2.8 #312 +1.5 #99

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 222 193 164
Results Rating Rank 203 169 110
Conference Record 12 - 8 13 - 7 14 - 6
Conference Finish 5 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18% 19% 14%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round18% 19% 14%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Home) - 74.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 34 - 7
Quad 416 - 520 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 19 @St. John's L 74 - 108 3% -22  0% 0 - 1 D- -13 C- -2 C C- F D -6 F C+ B+
 Thu, Nov 6 303 Central Connecticut St. W 71 - 49 81% +12  90% 1 - 1 B +11 F -10 D+ F A+ A+ +21 A+ C- F+
 Tue, Nov 11 85 Yale L 60 - 97 29% -18  17% 1 - 2 F -33 F -19 F C+ F F -13 F F B+
 Sun, Nov 16 343 @Maine W 70 - 64 76% -2  40% 2 - 2 C- -3 D -5 F B- C+ C+ +2 D- A+ F
 Sun, Nov 23 98 @Pittsburgh W 83 - 75 17% +5  87% 3 - 2 A- +16 A +13 A+ A- F B- +3 D D+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 51 @Central Florida L 91 - 102 8% -2  39% 3 - 3 C+ +3 A- +10 A F A- D- -7 D+ C D
 Sun, Nov 30 341 Stonehill W 76 - 62 89% +8  76% 4 - 3 C -1 C +0 A F D C -1 B- F C+
 Fri, Dec 5 249 @Iona W 89 - 68 49% +7  89% 5 - 3 1 - 0 A +19 A- +10 C+ A+ C A- +8 A+ F C-
 Sun, Dec 7 356 Rider W 72 - 58 92% +15  99% 6 - 3 2 - 0 C- -4 F -11 F B B A- +7 C C+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 311 Umass Lowell W 75 - 71 82% -1  30% 7 - 3 D+ -8 F -12 F B C B +4 F A+ A
 Wed, Dec 17 199 @Monmouth W 85 - 75 39% +15  99% 8 - 3 B +11 A- +9 B B- A- C+ +1 C- A C+
 Sun, Dec 21 106 @Hofstra L 66 - 74 19% -2  19% 8 - 4 C -1 D+ -4 F A B B- +3 A+ F B+
 Mon, Dec 29 181 Marist W 64 - 58 59% +3  79% 9 - 4 3 - 0 C+ +2 D- -7 F A D- A +9 A D A-
 Fri, Jan 2 319 @Manhattan L 79 - 80 69% +8  91% 9 - 5 3 - 1 D -8 D -5 F A+ F D+ -3 F A C-
 Sun, Jan 4 284 Mount St. Mary's W 80 - 69 78% +6  87% 10 - 5 4 - 1 C +1 C +1 A- D+ D+ C -0 A F F+
 Sun, Jan 11 286 @Sacred Heart W 70 - 60 59% +0  49% 11 - 5 5 - 1 B- +6 D -4 D- F A- A +11 B- C- A
 Wed, Jan 14 235 St. Peter's L 70 - 74 69% -4  22% 11 - 6 5 - 2 D -11 D- -7 D+ C- A+ D+ -4 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 160 @Merrimack L 71 - 83 32% -12  2% 11 - 7 5 - 3 D -9 C+ +2 D- C A+ F -11 F F B-
 Mon, Jan 19 319 Manhattan W 98 - 92 OT 85% -1  49% 12 - 7 6 - 3 D+ -7 C +1 C- A+ D+ F+ -8 D D- D
 Thu, Jan 22 284 @Mount St. Mary's W 77 - 62 58% +12  92% 13 - 7 7 - 3 B +11 C+ +2 B F+ C+ A +9 C- A+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 181 @Marist L 64 - 71 36% -8  3% 13 - 8 7 - 4 D+ -5 C- -2 D+ F+ A+ D+ -4 F C+ C
 Fri, Jan 30 286 Sacred Heart L 91 - 98 79% -1  39% 13 - 9 7 - 5 F+ -17 C +1 D B B F -18 F B- F
 Sun, Feb 1 264 @Fairfield W 72 - 65 53% -2  27% 14 - 9 8 - 5 C+ +4 D -5 C- B F+ A +9 A C F+
 Thu, Feb 5 344 Canisius W 75 - 60 89% +13  97% 15 - 9 9 - 5 C -0 F+ -9 D A+ F A- +8 A- F C+
 Sat, Feb 7 336 Niagara W 56 - 55 88% +5  81% 16 - 9 10 - 5 D- -14 F -16 F F F B- +2 C F A+
 Fri, Feb 13 191 @Siena W 74 - 62 38% +6  94% 17 - 9 11 - 5 B+ +13 C+ +2 C- C+ A+ A+ +12 A+ C- D+
 Sun, Feb 15 160 Merrimack L 49 - 56 54% -0  35% 17 - 10 11 - 6 D -10 F -23 F B- F A+ +12 A- A C+
 Sun, Feb 22 264 Fairfield W 79 - 72 74%
 Fri, Feb 27 336 @Niagara W 71 - 64 74%
 Sun, Mar 1 344 @Canisius W 72 - 65 76%
Totals 19 - 11 13 - 7 -2 D+ -4 A- D+ C- C+ +2 C D+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D+ D- C D+ 39% 45% 36% C- D+ C+ C C+ C D+ D+ D+ C+ C+ A D C 42% 20% 38% D+ C D+ C+ C- C C+ C C+
1.03 54% 31% 34% -3 0 0.95 32% 1.0 .33 17% .28 70% .20 1.06 56% 30% 37% 0 0 1.02 33% 1.0 .33 17% .28 72% .20
Nov
3		 St. John's C- D B D+ C+ 42% 30% 28% D+ C B F C- F B- D+ C+ D D- A+ F F 64% 7% 29% F F F+ A C+ B+ F A D+
0.89 46% 41% 31% -5 -1 0.89 33% 0.7 .23 26% .31 68% .21 1.29 65% 25% 47% +9 +4 1.28 43% 1.0 .43 17% .49 65% .32
Nov
6		 Central Connecticut St. F D- C+ B- D+ 47% 17% 37% C D+ D F F A+ F F F A+ A+ A A+ A+ 26% 34% 40% B- A+ C- C- C- F+ B- A+ B+
1.03 50% 40% 36% -2 +1 1.00 26% 0.6 .16 7% .11 71% .08 0.71 36% 28% 19% -18 -3 0.60 28% 1.0 .28 13% .23 64% .15
Nov
11		 Yale F B+ F F F 35% 23% 42% C- F B+ D- C+ F F+ F F+ F D F F F 48% 19% 33% D+ F F C- F B+ A C- A
0.84 67% 25% 23% -7 -1 0.87 35% 0.9 .32 24% .20 64% .13 1.36 64% 60% 59% +19 +1 1.42 46% 1.3 .58 18% .24 79% .19
Nov
16		 Maine D F F F F 44% 26% 30% D+ F B+ C- B- C+ A+ D+ A+ C+ B- D- D D- 45% 19% 36% D D- D- A+ A+ F D+ D+ D
1.00 45% 23% 20% -16 0 0.70 44% 1.0 .44 17% .54 68% .36 0.92 52% 44% 35% -1 +1 1.02 24% 0.2 .05 16% .36 67% .24
Nov
23		 Pittsburgh A C- A+ A+ A+ 37% 26% 37% D+ A+ B A A- F A+ F A+ B- F A+ C+ D+ 39% 9% 52% D- D F B+ D+ A F A- D+
1.21 56% 55% 63% +19 -1 1.40 30% 1.1 .35 22% .45 67% .30 1.10 78% 0% 33% +4 +2 1.13 45% 0.9 .39 22% .37 60% .22
Nov
25		 Central Florida A- C F A+ A+ 31% 24% 45% D+ A F+ F F A- A+ A+ A+ D- F A+ D- C- 50% 19% 31% D- D+ C- C+ C D F B- F
1.16 56% 25% 52% +9 -1 1.18 17% 0.7 .11 14% .52 83% .43 1.30 72% 18% 39% +6 +1 1.16 38% 1.1 .43 13% .40 74% .29
Nov
30		 Stonehill C B+ F A+ A 51% 22% 27% C+ A D F F D F A+ D C A+ C- B C+ 26% 26% 48% A B- F F F C+ A A+ A+
1.10 64% 25% 53% +8 +1 1.20 23% 0.7 .17 14% .20 83% .17 0.90 38% 38% 29% -8 -2 0.82 39% 1.2 .47 22% .15 50% .07
Dec
5		 Iona A- A D D C+ 41% 20% 39% C C+ A+ B+ A+ C D+ C+ D+ A- A- B A+ A+ 43% 17% 40% D+ A+ F D- F C- F C+ F
1.22 71% 33% 30% +2 0 1.07 47% 1.1 .53 16% .23 71% .16 0.93 48% 33% 14% -17 +1 0.70 33% 1.1 .37 16% .36 68% .25
Dec
7		 Rider F F F+ C- F 59% 11% 30% B F C- A B B F D+ F A- A+ B- F D 26% 50% 24% A+ C C+ C C+ B- A+ A+ A+
1.05 45% 33% 35% -7 +3 0.93 33% 1.2 .41 12% .15 67% .10 0.85 36% 33% 46% -4 -5 0.85 30% 0.9 .27 19% .14 50% .07
Dec
13		 Umass Lowell F B F F F 43% 29% 27% D- F B- B B C A+ F A+ B B B- F F 50% 15% 35% F+ F A+ A+ A+ A A A+ A
1.00 64% 27% 21% -6 -1 0.88 34% 1.2 .42 13% .45 66% .29 0.95 50% 38% 56% +7 +2 1.19 22% 0.5 .11 25% .23 54% .13
Dec
17		 Monmouth A- A+ F B- B+ 44% 22% 35% C- B B- C+ B- A- C F+ C- C+ F A+ A+ C+ 57% 18% 24% F C- D- A+ A C+ F+ F F
1.18 75% 25% 37% +6 0 1.15 35% 1.0 .35 15% .30 67% .20 1.04 68% 11% 25% -3 +2 1.00 36% 0.5 .19 18% .37 86% .32
Dec
21		 Hofstra D+ D- C F F 37% 21% 42% B- F D+ A+ A B B B- B B- A+ B- A+ A+ 38% 12% 50% F A+ F F F B+ F B- F
0.98 47% 36% 14% -17 0 0.67 27% 1.6 .44 12% .34 75% .25 1.10 42% 33% 24% -14 +1 0.76 48% 1.3 .64 19% .42 74% .31
Dec
29		 Marist D- F D- D F 31% 33% 35% D- F A B- A D- C+ D C A B- A+ A+ A+ 50% 23% 27% F A F+ C+ D A- A C+ A
0.94 40% 31% 29% -10 -2 0.77 40% 1.1 .43 22% .37 65% .24 0.85 54% 25% 14% -13 +1 0.77 32% 1.1 .34 22% .17 78% .13
Jan
2		 Manhattan D A F C+ F+ 26% 38% 36% F F C+ A+ A+ F F+ A+ C- D+ C- F D+ F 40% 23% 38% C- F C A+ A C- B- F C-
1.10 71% 20% 37% -2 -3 0.92 38% 1.7 .65 21% .18 100% .18 1.12 57% 58% 35% +5 0 1.11 26% 0.7 .18 15% .26 94% .25
Jan
4		 Mount St. Mary's C D A+ A+ A 34% 30% 36% D A- A F D+ D+ A+ B A+ C B- A+ C+ A- 28% 20% 52% A A F F F F+ A+ F A
1.13 50% 57% 41% +7 -1 1.13 41% 0.6 .26 16% .45 78% .35 0.97 53% 9% 32% -9 -1 0.83 39% 1.4 .53 18% .17 80% .14
Jan
11		 Sacred Heart D B- D- A- D+ 37% 35% 28% F D- D F F A- D+ F D A F+ A+ D+ B- 26% 20% 54% B- B- D- B+ C- A C A+ A-
1.08 65% 32% 40% +3 -2 1.04 28% 0.8 .22 11% .24 64% .16 0.93 67% 0% 36% -4 -1 0.93 31% 0.9 .28 23% .28 57% .16
Jan
14		 St. Peter's D- D D B C- 40% 27% 33% D- D+ F+ A+ C- A+ C F D- D+ B- F+ F F 41% 25% 34% C F A A+ A+ C+ F F+ F
1.00 53% 31% 38% -2 -1 0.96 27% 1.3 .36 14% .40 63% .25 1.06 50% 45% 47% +5 0 1.11 28% 0.7 .20 19% .46 81% .37
Jan
17		 Merrimack C+ F+ D- F+ F+ 53% 24% 22% B- D- F A+ C A+ A+ C+ A F A A+ F F 37% 9% 53% C- F F+ F F B- F B+ F
1.06 46% 33% 27% -10 +1 0.84 29% 1.4 .42 13% .45 73% .33 1.24 44% 25% 52% +8 +1 1.21 30% 1.4 .41 18% .49 74% .36
Jan
19		 Manhattan C D C+ A+ C- 40% 22% 38% C- C- B+ A A+ D+ A+ F A+ F+ B+ A- F D+ 47% 22% 32% D- D F+ C D- D D F F
1.22 55% 42% 43% +4 0 1.11 44% 1.3 .59 16% .48 66% .31 1.15 46% 31% 47% -1 0 1.02 33% 1.1 .36 14% .33 91% .30
Jan
22		 Mount St. Mary's C+ C F A+ B 45% 22% 33% B- B F C- F+ C+ D+ F F A D- A+ D+ C- 43% 13% 43% C- C- A+ A+ A+ C F D F
1.10 56% 17% 50% +2 0 1.07 19% 1.0 .19 13% .31 58% .18 0.89 65% 0% 35% -1 +1 1.02 17% 0.4 .07 23% .39 71% .28
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Marist C- F+ F+ D D- 51% 18% 31% A D+ C F F+ A+ D- B- D+ D+ F+ D- C+ F 45% 28% 28% D+ F A+ F C+ C D B D+
0.97 50% 30% 29% -8 +1 0.89 29% 0.7 .20 11% .30 72% .22 1.07 67% 46% 31% +5 0 1.11 15% 1.8 .27 18% .30 75% .22
Jan
30		 Sacred Heart C C A+ D- D 32% 12% 56% C- D B- B+ B B A C- A F C+ F F F 29% 11% 60% D F A- D- B- F F D+ F
1.20 61% 57% 31% +1 +1 1.05 35% 1.2 .43 12% .36 71% .26 1.30 56% 50% 42% +8 +1 1.20 20% 1.2 .23 9% .45 81% .36
Feb
1		 Fairfield D B- B+ F D+ 62% 17% 21% B- C- C- A+ B F+ F F F A A+ B F A+ 52% 21% 27% D- A F+ A- C F+ B A+ A-
1.05 63% 44% 18% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.3 .39 19% .16 67% .11 0.95 31% 33% 40% -13 +1 0.79 39% 0.8 .30 12% .21 54% .12
Feb
5		 Canisius F+ F B B- D 30% 20% 50% D D C A+ A+ F A+ C A+ A- A+ A+ F A 41% 24% 35% C- A- C+ F F C+ F B+ F+
1.02 46% 44% 36% 0 -1 1.00 32% 1.5 .48 22% .51 72% .37 0.82 35% 8% 41% -13 0 0.76 26% 1.3 .34 20% .39 65% .26
Feb
7		 Niagara F F F A- F 36% 18% 45% C+ F A- F F F B D+ B- B- D B- B- C- 32% 22% 46% A C F C+ F A+ C B- C+
0.95 38% 13% 40% -8 0 0.86 42% 0.4 .18 20% .34 75% .25 0.93 62% 33% 32% -2 -1 0.98 35% 0.8 .29 25% .23 70% .16
Feb
13		 Siena C+ F C+ A- C- 30% 20% 50% C C- C C+ C+ A+ A- F C A+ A+ A- A- A+ 47% 24% 29% F+ A+ C+ D- C- D+ C F D
1.11 40% 40% 40% -1 -1 1.00 33% 1.0 .33 10% .35 57% .20 0.93 38% 33% 27% -14 0 0.75 28% 1.1 .31 15% .28 88% .25
Feb
15		 Merrimack F F+ F F F 30% 41% 30% F F A+ D- B- F B B- B A+ B C A+ A 48% 19% 33% C+ A- A+ C A C+ D+ F F+
0.75 46% 11% 8% -26 -3 0.43 52% 0.9 .45 25% .39 74% .28 0.86 50% 38% 21% -10 +1 0.83 11% 1.0 .11 17% .37 90% .33



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 11.6 39.3 50.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 25.7 3.4 30.7 3rd
4th 0.1 7.5 3.3 10.9 4th
5th 1.1 5.6 6.7 5th
6th 0.9 0.9 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 2.0 14.7 40.6 42.6 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 42.6% 21.4% 21.4% 14.3 0.0 0.8 5.1 3.1 0.1 33.5
13-7 40.6% 17.0% 17.0% 14.9 0.0 1.5 4.5 0.9 33.7
12-8 14.7% 11.3% 11.3% 15.3 0.1 0.9 0.7 13.0
11-9 2.0% 8.0% 8.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.8% 17.8% 0.0% 14.6 82.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.1% 100.0% 14.3 0.1 9.3 55.5 34.3 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 12.1%
Lose Out 0.6%