Quinnipiac
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.9 #186
Expected Predictive Rating -0.2 #168
Pace 75.4 #32
Improvement -2.6 #289

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #225 C- C+ C D+ C-
Defense #150 C- C- C C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #148 1.12 #217 +0.0 #172
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #88 0.67 #312 +0.6 #151
Three Pointers 35% #304 1.03 #171 -2.7 #274
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #240 -2.1 #239
Freethrows 0.28 #265 70% #260 0.19 #272
Second Chance 30.5% #186 1.10 #84 0.34 #127
Turnovers 16.4% #160
Total Offense -2.0 #225

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #85 1.15 #172 -2.1 #252
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #219 0.63 #12 +1.8 #57
Three Pointers 39% #257 1.13 #333 -1.0 #233
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #223 -1.3 #224
Freethrows 0.28 #129 71% #119 0.20 #116
Second Chance 33.9% #307 0.98 #104 0.33 #236
Turnovers 16.7% #177
Total Defense +0.2 #150

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #252 0.9% #253
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.3% #230 1.7% #215
Possession Length 16.1 #71 17.4 #203
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #67 0.18 #209
Improvement -0.1 #188 -2.4 #311

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.3% 16.9% 11.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.2
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.9% 98.2%
Conference Champion 8.8% 9.7% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round16.2% 16.8% 11.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Canisius (Home) - 89.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 34 - 7
Quad 416 - 520 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 19 @St. John's L 74 - 108 3% -22  0 - 1 -13 -1 C D+ F -7 F C+ B
 Thu, Nov 6 300 Central Connecticut St. W 71 - 49 81% +12  1 - 1 +11 -7 D+ F A+ +18 A+ C- D-
 Tue, Nov 11 80 Yale L 60 - 97 28% -18  1 - 2 -33 -16 F+ C+ F -16 F F B+
 Sun, Nov 16 346 @Maine W 70 - 64 74% -2  2 - 2 -3 -2 F B- C -0 D- A+ F
 Sun, Nov 23 93 @Pittsburgh W 83 - 75 16% +5  3 - 2 +17 +16 A+ B+ F +1 D+ C- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 44 @Central Florida L 91 - 102 7% -2  3 - 3 +4 +14 A F A- -9 D+ C+ D
 Sun, Nov 30 328 Stonehill W 76 - 62 86% +8  4 - 3 +1 +3 A F+ D- -2 B- F C+
 Fri, Dec 5 231 @Iona W 89 - 68 47% +7  5 - 3 1 - 0 +20 +14 B- A+ C +5 A+ F C-
 Sun, Dec 7 352 Rider W 72 - 58 90% +15  6 - 3 2 - 0 -2 -7 F B C+ +6 C C+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 314 Umass Lowell W 75 - 71 83% -1  7 - 3 -8 -9 F B C +0 F A+ A-
 Wed, Dec 17 207 @Monmouth W 85 - 75 43% +15  8 - 3 +10 +12 B B- B+ -2 D+ A+ C+
 Sun, Dec 21 126 @Hofstra L 66 - 74 25% -2  8 - 4 -3 -3 F B+ B -0 A+ F B
 Mon, Dec 29 161 Marist W 64 - 58 55% +3  9 - 4 3 - 0 +3 -4 F+ A F+ +6 A D A-
 Fri, Jan 2 327 @Manhattan L 79 - 80 70% +8  9 - 5 3 - 1 -8 -2 F A+ F -6 F A- C-
 Sun, Jan 4 289 Mount St. Mary's W 80 - 69 79% +6  10 - 5 4 - 1 +1 +4 B+ D+ D -3 B+ F D-
 Sun, Jan 11 276 @Sacred Heart W 70 - 60 56% +0  11 - 5 5 - 1 +7 -1 D F A- +9 B- C- B+
 Wed, Jan 14 235 St. Peter's L 70 - 74 69% -4  11 - 6 5 - 2 -11 -4 D+ C A -7 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 201 @Merrimack L 71 - 83 41% -12  11 - 7 5 - 3 -12 +3 D- C A+ -15 F F B-
 Mon, Jan 19 327 Manhattan W 98 - 92 OT 86% -1  12 - 7 6 - 3 -7 +4 C- A+ C -12 D+ F+ D
 Thu, Jan 22 289 @Mount St. Mary's W 77 - 62 60% +12  13 - 7 7 - 3 +11 +5 B- F+ C+ +6 D+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 161 @Marist L 64 - 71 33% -8  13 - 8 7 - 4 -4 +2 C- D- A+ -6 F+ C C
 Fri, Jan 30 276 Sacred Heart L 91 - 98 76% -1  13 - 9 7 - 5 -16 +4 D B B -20 F C+ F
 Sun, Feb 1 272 @Fairfield W 72 - 65 55% -2  14 - 9 8 - 5 +4 -2 C- B D- +6 A- C F+
 Thu, Feb 5 345 Canisius W 77 - 64 89%
 Sat, Feb 7 349 Niagara W 77 - 64 88%
 Fri, Feb 13 174 @Siena L 72 - 76 36%
 Sun, Feb 15 201 Merrimack W 73 - 69 64%
 Sun, Feb 22 272 Fairfield W 80 - 73 75%
 Fri, Feb 27 349 @Niagara W 74 - 67 75%
 Sun, Mar 1 345 @Canisius W 74 - 67 74%
Totals 19 - 11 13 - 7 -2 -2 C- C+ C +0 C- C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.0 5.7 8.8 1st
2nd 0.0 2.4 13.1 3.6 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 13.2 9.9 0.2 24.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 8.9 13.5 1.5 0.0 24.7 4th
5th 0.2 4.6 9.5 2.5 0.0 16.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 2.6 0.9 0.0 4.5 6th
7th 0.2 0.7 0.3 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.0 8.3 20.6 31.7 27.6 9.5 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 60.0% 5.7    1.5 2.8 1.3 0.1
14-6 11.0% 3.0    0.2 0.6 1.3 0.8 0.1
13-7 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 1.7 3.5 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 9.5% 24.2% 24.2% 13.6 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.2 7.2
14-6 27.6% 20.0% 20.0% 14.5 0.2 2.6 2.6 0.2 22.1
13-7 31.7% 15.5% 15.5% 15.0 0.0 0.8 3.3 0.8 26.8
12-8 20.6% 12.7% 12.7% 15.1 0.3 1.6 0.7 18.0
11-9 8.3% 8.5% 8.5% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 7.6
10-10 2.0% 10.0% 10.0% 15.6 0.1 0.1 1.8
9-11 0.3% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 14.7 83.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.3% 100.0% 13.6 3.7 36.2 51.6 8.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.9%