Sam Houston St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#181
Expected Predictive Rating-3.9#225
Pace68.5#172
Improvement-1.9#275

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#153
First Shot+1.8#119
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#243
Layup/Dunks-0.6#205
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#57
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#159
Freethrows-0.4#196
Improvement-4.5#349

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#233
First Shot+0.2#173
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#332
Layups/Dunks+1.1#128
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#171
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#259
Freethrows+0.2#167
Improvement+2.6#49
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 2.3% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.9% 1.6% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 35.2% 15.8% 57.2%
First Four1.0% 1.4% 0.6%
First Round1.4% 2.0% 0.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Away) - 53.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 50 - 9
Quad 33 - 103 - 19
Quad 46 - 19 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 88   @ Nevada L 75-91 17%     0 - 1 -7.0 +7.9 -15.1
  Nov 09, 2024 247   @ Tarleton St. W 91-62 56%     1 - 1 +26.4 +14.3 +9.8
  Nov 12, 2024 20   @ Baylor L 67-104 5%     1 - 2 -18.7 -2.4 -14.7
  Nov 17, 2024 218   @ Lamar W 85-72 49%     2 - 2 +12.3 +17.0 -4.2
  Nov 27, 2024 145   Appalachian St. L 63-66 41%     2 - 3 -1.8 -2.1 +0.1
  Nov 29, 2024 117   @ UNC Wilmington L 60-69 27%     2 - 4 -3.7 -6.7 +2.2
  Nov 30, 2024 239   Colgate W 82-78 63%     3 - 4 -0.6 +10.9 -11.2
  Dec 03, 2024 53   @ Indiana L 71-97 11%     3 - 5 -13.4 -2.6 -8.4
  Dec 07, 2024 274   Texas Southern W 87-71 77%     4 - 5 +7.2 +16.8 -8.9
  Dec 21, 2024 47   @ Pittsburgh L 78-110 10%     4 - 6 -18.7 +6.6 -24.1
  Jan 02, 2025 166   @ New Mexico St. L 71-75 36%     4 - 7 0 - 1 -1.5 +6.2 -8.0
  Jan 04, 2025 143   @ UTEP L 72-81 32%     4 - 8 0 - 2 -5.3 +4.6 -10.2
  Jan 09, 2025 90   Liberty L 68-76 32%     4 - 9 0 - 3 -4.3 -1.2 -3.2
  Jan 11, 2025 243   Florida International W 81-74 73%     5 - 9 1 - 3 -0.4 +4.9 -5.5
  Jan 16, 2025 170   @ Kennesaw St. L 69-75 OT 37%     5 - 10 1 - 4 -3.7 -10.6 +7.7
  Jan 18, 2025 130   @ Jacksonville St. L 62-70 30%     5 - 11 1 - 5 -3.7 -2.5 -2.2
  Jan 23, 2025 120   Middle Tennessee L 75-77 46%     5 - 12 1 - 6 -2.2 +12.3 -14.8
  Jan 25, 2025 115   Western Kentucky L 66-75 44%     5 - 13 1 - 7 -8.6 -2.1 -6.7
  Feb 01, 2025 113   @ Louisiana Tech L 61-66 OT 26%     5 - 14 1 - 8 +0.7 -11.2 +12.0
  Feb 06, 2025 243   @ Florida International W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 90   @ Liberty L 65-75 16%    
  Feb 13, 2025 130   Jacksonville St. L 71-72 50%    
  Feb 15, 2025 170   Kennesaw St. W 78-76 56%    
  Feb 20, 2025 115   @ Western Kentucky L 75-81 25%    
  Feb 22, 2025 120   @ Middle Tennessee L 71-77 27%    
  Mar 01, 2025 113   Louisiana Tech L 70-72 45%    
  Mar 06, 2025 143   UTEP W 74-73 52%    
  Mar 08, 2025 166   New Mexico St. W 71-70 56%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 0.3 1.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 1.5 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.5 3.0 4.8 1.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.8 6.8 16.9 22.0 15.0 3.8 0.1 65.4 9th
10th 1.1 4.9 7.2 5.4 1.9 0.2 20.6 10th
Total 1.1 5.7 14.0 22.3 24.3 18.3 9.7 3.7 0.8 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.1% 0.1
9-9 0.8% 10.7% 10.7% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8
8-10 3.7% 7.3% 7.3% 15.4 0.2 0.1 3.4
7-11 9.7% 3.3% 3.3% 15.8 0.1 0.3 9.4
6-12 18.3% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.6 17.7
5-13 24.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 24.0
4-14 22.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 22.2
3-15 14.0% 14.0
2-16 5.7% 5.7
1-17 1.1% 1.1
0-18
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 98.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%