Sam Houston St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.1 114
Results Rating +4.5 100
Pace 73.8 48
Improvement -0.2 196

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 107 C+ B- C D+ C+
Defense C 155 C+ C C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 89 C 58% 162 +2.2 98
2 Pt. Jumpers 40% 154 C- 36% 242 -0.4 201
Three Pointers 37% 251 B 37% 53 -0.1 183
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 159 C+ +1.3 121
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.05 126
Second Chance B 35.5% 48 C- 1.00 222 B- 0.35 90
Turnovers C 17.2% 202
Freethrows D+ 0.27 286 C 72% 205 D+ 0.20 284
Total Offense C+ +2.6 107

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 50% 151 B 8.1% 42
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 30% 116 B- 3.6% 74
Three Pointers C- 81% 245 B- 0.6% 104
Total C 56% 165 B 4.4% 45

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 250 D+ 61% 278 +0.1 184
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 179 C 38% 159 -0.2 178
Three Pointers 43% 113 B 31% 60 -0.8 145
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 143 C+ -0.7 151
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 146
Second Chance C 29.9% 163 C 1.04 195 C 0.31 178
Turnovers C 16.6% 196
Freethrows C- 0.32 231 B- 70% 75 C 0.22 206
Total Defense C +0.5 155

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 218 D+ 8.3% 281
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 22% 120 C- 4.3% 207
Three Pointers B- 81% 87 C 1.0% 142
Total C 55% 154 D+ 4.3% 284

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.1 58 17.0 123
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 27 0.17 175
Improvement -0.2 #200 +0.0 #187

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 138 117 100
Results Rating Rank 129 106 84
Conference Record 12 - 8 14 - 6 15 - 5
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24% 25% 21%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.8 13.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 1% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round24% 25% 21%
Second Round2% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Florida International (Home) - 76.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 39 - 510 - 9
Quad 410 - 120 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 14 @Texas Tech L 77 - 98 5% -8  9% 0 - 1 C +1 A- +11 C A+ D- F -10 B- F C+
 Sat, Nov 15 99 @Utah L 79 - 85 31% -9  5% 0 - 2 C+ +2 C+ +2 C- D+ B- C +0 C- B+ A
 Wed, Nov 19 100 Wyoming W 78 - 70 54% +3  86% 1 - 2 B +10 C +1 C- B F A +9 C A+ A
 Wed, Nov 26 252 Idaho St. W 84 - 81 78% +1  61% 2 - 2 C- -2 C +1 D+ A+ D- C- -3 F+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 187 Idaho W 94 - 68 68% +4  56% 3 - 2 A+ +24 A+ +27 A+ A+ A+ C -0 C- C D
 Tue, Dec 2 68 @Oklahoma St. L 83 - 93 21% -0  49% 3 - 3 C +1 C+ +3 A F C+ C -0 C+ F A-
 Sat, Dec 6 305 @Texas Southern W 82 - 70 79% +6  71% 4 - 3 B- +6 D -6 F D+ D A +11 A+ C- B-
 Wed, Dec 17 158 @Oregon St. W 85 - 75 50% +8  97% 5 - 3 B+ +13 B +6 B- B D- B+ +6 C A D
 Sun, Dec 21 163 @New Mexico St. L 78 - 87 51% -13  3% 5 - 4 0 - 1 D+ -6 C- -2 D D+ D+ D+ -4 F B- F
 Fri, Jan 2 147 @Western Kentucky L 91 - 102 48% +1  64% 5 - 5 0 - 2 D+ -7 A- +10 C+ B+ B F -16 C- F B
 Sun, Jan 4 167 @Middle Tennessee L 67 - 68 52% -5  20% 5 - 6 0 - 3 C +2 D -6 C+ C+ F A- +7 C A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 8 265 Delaware W 72 - 60 87% +7  99% 6 - 6 1 - 3 C+ +3 C +0 D C- A B +4 B+ B- F+
 Sat, Jan 10 107 Liberty L 74 - 82 58% -5  8% 6 - 7 1 - 4 D+ -7 D -6 C D F C -1 C- C+ B+
 Wed, Jan 14 196 @Jacksonville St. W 77 - 62 58% +7  98% 7 - 7 2 - 4 A- +16 A +13 A+ B+ D- B +5 B C+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 184 @Florida International W 76 - 63 56% +7  93% 8 - 7 3 - 4 B+ +14 D+ -3 C- D+ D A+ +16 A+ A A+
 Wed, Jan 21 165 Kennesaw St. W 93 - 87 73% +5  93% 9 - 7 4 - 4 C+ +3 A- +11 A+ B- A- F+ -8 C D F
 Sat, Jan 24 147 Western Kentucky W 73 - 58 70% +14  93% 10 - 7 5 - 4 B+ +13 C +1 D+ A+ A A+ +13 A- F+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 204 @Missouri St. W 80 - 71 60% +4  87% 11 - 7 6 - 4 B +10 B +7 B- C- D- B- +3 C- F+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 215 Louisiana Tech W 83 - 67 81% +6  92% 12 - 7 7 - 4 B +10 A+ +15 B- A+ A+ D+ -4 A F C-
 Wed, Feb 4 243 UTEP W 70 - 66 84% +4  86% 13 - 7 8 - 4 C- -3 D- -7 F B- C+ B +4 B A F
 Sat, Feb 7 215 @Louisiana Tech L 78 - 87 62% +0  51% 13 - 8 8 - 5 D -9 C +0 B+ D- D- F+ -9 D D+ D-
 Sat, Feb 14 165 @Kennesaw St. W 83 - 79 52% +2  74% 14 - 8 9 - 5 B- +7 A +13 A+ A- C- D -6 D- D+ D-
 Wed, Feb 18 167 Middle Tennessee W 78 - 70 73% +7  98% 15 - 8 10 - 5 C+ +5 C +1 D+ A- B B +4 B+ A F
 Sat, Feb 21 196 Jacksonville St. W 82 - 78 78% +3  63% 16 - 8 11 - 5 C -1 B+ +8 B- B- C F+ -9 D- A+ F
 Thu, Feb 26 184 Florida International W 86 - 78 76%
 Sat, Feb 28 204 Missouri St. W 80 - 71 79%
 Thu, Mar 5 265 @Delaware W 76 - 70 72%
 Sat, Mar 7 107 @Liberty L 76 - 80 35%
Totals 19 - 9 14 - 6 +3 C+ +3 B C+ C+ C +0 B C D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C C- B C+ 42% 40% 37% C+ C+ B C- B- C D+ C D+ C D+ C B C+ 36% 21% 43% C C+ C C C C C- B- C
1.12 58% 36% 37% +1 0 1.05 35% 1.0 .35 17% .27 72% .20 1.08 61% 38% 31% -1 0 1.00 30% 1.0 .31 17% .32 70% .19
Nov
7		 Texas Tech A- D+ F+ A+ B- 28% 43% 28% F+ C A+ C+ A+ D- A B- A F C C- D B- 29% 20% 51% C B- F D+ F C+ F A F
1.09 53% 30% 40% -2 -4 0.91 45% 0.9 .43 20% .35 70% .25 1.39 62% 44% 39% +6 -1 1.13 50% 1.1 .55 16% .72 65% .47
Nov
15		 Utah C+ F B+ B C- 46% 18% 36% B- C- C F+ D+ B- D- A+ C- C C+ F C- C+ 48% 6% 46% F C- F A+ B+ A F F+ F
1.07 46% 45% 36% -3 +1 0.98 29% 0.8 .24 14% .20 85% .17 1.15 57% 67% 36% +3 +3 1.13 43% 0.6 .24 20% .51 80% .41
Nov
19		 Wyoming C B+ A+ F C 32% 23% 45% F+ C- B+ C- B F A+ A+ A+ A F C- A+ C- 46% 22% 32% B C D+ A+ A+ A F+ A+ A+
1.10 64% 50% 25% -1 -1 0.98 33% 0.9 .30 21% .59 88% .52 0.99 70% 45% 25% +3 0 1.08 39% 0.5 .18 21% .39 41% .16
Nov
26		 Idaho St. C F+ A+ C+ D+ 38% 19% 43% C D+ A+ C- A+ D- A+ C+ A+ C- F F C+ F+ 34% 11% 55% C- F+ C A+ A+ A+ F D F
1.16 50% 56% 35% +1 0 1.04 52% 1.1 .55 18% .47 79% .37 1.12 77% 50% 33% +7 +1 1.18 32% 0.6 .18 23% .74 78% .58
Nov
28		 Idaho A+ C C A+ A+ 30% 26% 44% C- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F F F C F F B+ D+ 22% 10% 67% C+ C- B- F+ C D C+ A+ A+
1.48 59% 40% 56% +15 -1 1.30 43% 1.3 .57 9% .16 67% .10 1.07 73% 60% 30% +2 0 1.06 25% 1.1 .28 14% .27 47% .13
Dec
2		 Oklahoma St. C+ B- A+ A A+ 25% 17% 58% D A B- F F C+ F A+ F+ C D- B- A+ B- 54% 11% 35% D+ C+ F F F A- F A- D
1.05 60% 50% 40% +8 0 1.17 31% 0.3 .10 18% .17 82% .14 1.18 66% 33% 26% -1 +2 1.06 40% 1.4 .54 19% .44 68% .30
Dec
6		 Texas Southern D D F F F 55% 11% 34% B+ F C+ F+ D+ D A+ C+ A+ A B+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 19% 41% D- A+ D B- C- B- F D- F
1.03 55% 17% 22% -10 +2 0.87 35% 0.9 .33 18% .49 72% .35 0.88 50% 18% 21% -15 0 0.73 29% 1.0 .29 19% .44 75% .33
Dec
17		 Oregon St. B C- D B B- 46% 12% 42% B B- A D B D- B C+ B B+ F A+ A+ C 24% 15% 62% C+ C A+ F A D A- B- A-
1.14 54% 33% 36% -1 +2 1.04 41% 0.9 .38 17% .37 74% .28 1.01 92% 25% 26% -1 0 1.00 11% 1.8 .20 15% .30 74% .22
Dec
21		 New Mexico St. C- F A+ C D- 38% 14% 48% B+ D B+ F D+ D+ B+ F C+ D+ C- F D+ F 41% 23% 36% D- F A+ F B- F A+ C A+
1.05 33% 50% 33% -8 +1 0.88 38% 0.8 .31 16% .42 69% .29 1.17 60% 64% 36% +8 0 1.18 21% 1.3 .27 9% .16 73% .12
Jan
2		 Western Kentucky A- B+ C C B- 33% 25% 43% C- C+ A C- B+ B F C- F F B A- C- C- 35% 13% 53% D+ C- F F F B F C+ F
1.18 65% 40% 35% +3 -1 1.07 39% 0.9 .34 15% .29 68% .20 1.32 47% 29% 34% -5 +1 0.95 49% 1.5 .73 17% .42 74% .31
Jan
4		 Middle Tennessee D F+ A A+ C+ 51% 27% 22% C C+ B D+ C+ F F F F A- A+ C+ F C- 26% 30% 44% A C A A+ A+ C- A F B-
0.98 48% 46% 45% +1 0 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 25% .23 67% .16 1.00 43% 38% 46% +4 -2 1.06 23% 0.2 .05 15% .17 90% .15
Jan
8		 Delaware C B+ F C- D 35% 25% 40% C D B+ F C- A B A A- B F A+ A- A- 27% 10% 63% D B+ B- B- B- F+ B- A+ B+
1.15 67% 15% 33% -3 -1 0.94 37% 0.8 .29 10% .32 89% .28 0.96 69% 20% 29% -4 +1 0.96 17% 0.8 .14 14% .22 67% .15
Jan
10		 Liberty D F A+ A C- 46% 16% 38% B+ C A- F D F C+ B B- C D- F B- C- 58% 6% 36% D C- A+ F C+ B+ F F F
1.04 35% 75% 42% 0 +1 1.04 40% 0.8 .31 22% .25 79% .20 1.15 69% 67% 33% +8 +3 1.24 8% 2.0 .16 17% .39 78% .30
Jan
14		 Jacksonville St. A A+ F A+ A+ 49% 11% 40% B+ A+ C+ A B+ D- F F+ F B B+ F A B+ 47% 13% 40% C B C B- C+ D C- B+ C+
1.24 74% 20% 47% +14 +2 1.34 30% 1.3 .39 19% .14 71% .10 1.00 48% 50% 28% -7 +2 0.91 29% 0.9 .26 14% .36 63% .23
Jan
17		 Florida International D+ A+ F D C 29% 20% 51% D C- C- D D+ D A+ F B- A+ A+ A+ D- A+ 37% 21% 42% B- A+ C+ A+ A A+ F A- F
1.01 73% 30% 31% 0 -1 1.02 33% 0.9 .30 23% .45 54% .24 0.84 25% 11% 39% -15 0 0.72 32% 0.7 .22 24% .68 62% .42
Jan
21		 Kennesaw St. A- A+ F A+ A+ 41% 23% 36% D+ A+ F+ A+ B- A- F F F F+ D- A+ D C- 33% 21% 47% A C C- D D F B+ D- B-
1.26 74% 23% 50% +12 0 1.25 22% 1.6 .34 12% .29 63% .19 1.18 63% 17% 37% -1 0 1.00 36% 1.1 .38 11% .29 74% .21
Jan
24		 Western Kentucky C C- C- F D- 49% 16% 35% A D+ C A+ A+ A D- F F A+ A- A+ A- A 37% 14% 49% D+ A- B F F+ A+ C- C C-
1.09 56% 38% 28% -4 +1 0.96 28% 1.6 .46 13% .34 40% .14 0.87 44% 17% 29% -12 +1 0.79 29% 1.4 .41 28% .33 75% .25
Jan
28		 Missouri St. B A C- C- B- 43% 33% 24% B- B- B- F+ C- D- C- C C- B- F B+ F D- 27% 43% 31% A+ C- B+ F F+ C B- B+ B
1.16 77% 35% 33% +7 -1 1.14 34% 0.9 .31 20% .35 74% .26 1.03 77% 29% 40% +4 -4 1.02 26% 1.7 .44 17% .32 61% .19
Jan
31		 Louisiana Tech A+ B C F C+ 59% 17% 24% B+ B- B+ A A+ A+ A+ D- A+ D+ A+ C+ A A- 36% 30% 34% A- A F+ F F C- F C F+
1.28 59% 38% 27% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.3 .52 9% .61 67% .41 1.03 41% 36% 25% -11 -1 0.77 41% 1.3 .54 18% .36 63% .23
Feb
4		 UTEP D- F F F F 47% 16% 37% A- F C+ B B- C+ A+ B+ A+ B B F A+ B- 29% 41% 31% A- B A A+ A F B D+ B-
1.00 48% 13% 22% -15 +1 0.73 36% 1.1 .40 17% .47 78% .36 0.95 53% 46% 22% -4 -3 0.88 19% 0.8 .14 9% .22 71% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Louisiana Tech C F B- A+ A- 30% 22% 48% D B+ F A+ D- D- B- C B- F+ D+ F A+ D+ 60% 17% 23% F D F B- D+ D- F F F
1.02 38% 42% 46% +3 -1 1.07 18% 1.5 .26 21% .35 71% .25 1.14 59% 67% 8% -3 +2 1.00 43% 0.7 .31 16% .54 74% .40
Feb
14		 Kennesaw St. A A A+ A- A+ 47% 20% 33% C A+ B- A+ A- C- A C- A- D C A+ F F+ 43% 17% 41% C+ D- D+ C- D+ D- A- C B+
1.25 67% 56% 40% +11 +1 1.24 33% 1.2 .41 17% .49 74% .36 1.19 57% 22% 45% +4 +1 1.11 37% 1.0 .37 14% .28 69% .19
Feb
18		 Middle Tennessee C C- F C D 56% 17% 28% B+ D+ A+ D+ A- B F A+ C- B C- D A+ B+ 31% 28% 41% B B+ A+ A A F B- A+ B+
1.12 57% 11% 33% -6 +2 0.94 39% 1.0 .39 13% .25 93% .23 1.01 61% 44% 25% -3 -1 0.93 21% 0.8 .16 9% .24 53% .13
Feb
21		 Jacksonville St. B+ B+ D B B 38% 20% 42% C- B- B- C+ B- C A+ B+ A+ F+ F A+ D F 39% 22% 39% A D- A+ A+ A+ F B+ F C+
1.22 65% 33% 37% +3 0 1.09 32% 1.1 .35 16% .50 82% .41 1.16 76% 17% 38% +5 0 1.11 20% 0.7 .13 10% .30 78% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.7 0.7 1st
2nd 0.6 8.7 30.6 41.4 16.2 97.5 2nd
3rd 0.6 1.2 1.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 1.3 10.0 30.6 41.4 16.8 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 4.0% 0.7    0.7
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.7



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 16.8% 29.6% 29.6% 12.3 0.2 3.2 1.6 0.0 11.9
14-6 41.4% 25.7% 25.7% 12.8 0.0 3.0 6.4 1.2 0.0 30.8
13-7 30.6% 21.8% 21.8% 13.1 1.0 4.1 1.5 0.0 23.9
12-8 10.0% 17.7% 17.7% 13.3 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.0 8.2
11-9 1.3% 14.4% 14.4% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.2% 24.2% 0.0% 12.8 75.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.0% 100.0% 12.3 3.4 64.3 31.5 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.9%
Lose Out 0.5%