Sam Houston St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.6 #108
Expected Predictive Rating +4.4 #96
Pace 73.4 #65
Improvement +1.5 #121

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #105 C+ B- C D C
Defense #136 C+ C C+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #102 1.17 #153 +2.1 #111
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #173 0.73 #220 -0.2 #186
Three Pointers 38% #249 1.11 #57 +0.0 #178
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #121 +1.9 #120
Freethrows 0.26 #309 70% #245 0.18 #314
Second Chance 36.4% #36 0.99 #228 0.36 #83
Turnovers 16.9% #192
Total Offense +2.6 #105

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #275 1.22 #265 +0.7 #152
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #205 0.71 #97 +0.8 #125
Three Pointers 45% #70 0.93 #66 +0.0 #184
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #130 +1.5 #130
Freethrows 0.32 #244 70% #56 0.22 #211
Second Chance 30.6% #173 1.07 #255 0.33 #219
Turnovers 17.5% #126
Total Defense +1.0 #136

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #166 -0.2% #150
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.3% #119 -2.6% #129
Possession Length 16.1 #66 16.9 #130
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #33 0.16 #158
Improvement -0.2 #194 +1.7 #88

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.0% 22.8% 17.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.7 12.9
.500 or above 99.6% 99.8% 98.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.5% 96.1%
Conference Champion 3.9% 4.4% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round22.0% 22.8% 17.0%
Second Round1.8% 1.8% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UTEP (Home) - 87.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 31 - 5
Quad 39 - 510 - 9
Quad 410 - 120 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 17 @Texas Tech L 77 - 98 7% -8  0 - 1 -0 +12 C A+ D -12 B- F C+
 Sat, Nov 15 104 @Utah L 79 - 85 36% -9  0 - 2 +1 +3 C- D B- -2 C B- A
 Wed, Nov 19 111 Wyoming W 78 - 70 62% +3  1 - 2 +9 +4 C- B F+ +5 C- A+ B+
 Wed, Nov 26 227 Idaho St. W 84 - 81 76% +1  2 - 2 -1 +5 C A+ D -5 D- A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 185 Idaho W 94 - 68 69% +4  3 - 2 +24 +29 A+ A+ A+ -2 C- C D+
 Tue, Dec 2 56 @Oklahoma St. L 83 - 93 20% -0  3 - 3 +3 +6 A F C -2 C+ F A
 Sat, Dec 6 309 @Texas Southern W 82 - 70 82% +6  4 - 3 +6 -4 F D D +9 A+ C C+
 Wed, Dec 17 184 @Oregon St. W 85 - 75 59% +8  5 - 3 +11 +8 C+ B D +3 C A- D-
 Sun, Dec 21 167 @New Mexico St. L 78 - 87 55% -13  5 - 4 0 - 1 -7 +1 D C- C -7 F B- F
 Fri, Jan 2 156 @Western Kentucky L 91 - 102 53% +1  5 - 5 0 - 2 -8 +13 C+ A- B -20 C- F B
 Sun, Jan 4 154 @Middle Tennessee L 67 - 68 53% -5  5 - 6 0 - 3 +2 -1 B- B- F +3 C A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 8 286 Delaware W 72 - 60 90% +7  6 - 6 1 - 3 +2 +4 D C A -1 B B- F+
 Sat, Jan 10 89 Liberty L 74 - 82 52% -5  6 - 7 1 - 4 -5 -1 C+ D F+ -3 C- C+ B+
 Wed, Jan 14 191 @Jacksonville St. W 77 - 62 61% +7  7 - 7 2 - 4 +16 +16 A+ B+ D- +2 B C+ D-
 Sat, Jan 17 188 @Florida International W 76 - 63 60% +7  8 - 7 3 - 4 +14 -1 C D D+ +14 A+ A A+
 Wed, Jan 21 142 Kennesaw St. W 93 - 87 70% +5  9 - 7 4 - 4 +4 +14 A+ C+ A- -10 C D F
 Sat, Jan 24 156 Western Kentucky W 73 - 58 74% +14  10 - 7 5 - 4 +12 +4 D+ A+ A +9 B+ F+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 182 @Missouri St. W 80 - 71 58% +4  11 - 7 6 - 4 +10 +9 B D+ D +1 C F+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 215 Louisiana Tech W 83 - 67 82% +6  12 - 7 7 - 4 +10 +16 B- A A+ -5 B+ F C+
 Wed, Feb 4 257 UTEP W 79 - 67 88%
 Sat, Feb 7 215 @Louisiana Tech W 72 - 68 64%
 Sat, Feb 14 142 @Kennesaw St. L 82 - 83 47%
 Wed, Feb 18 154 Middle Tennessee W 77 - 70 73%
 Sat, Feb 21 191 Jacksonville St. W 77 - 68 79%
 Thu, Feb 26 188 Florida International W 87 - 78 79%
 Sat, Feb 28 182 Missouri St. W 78 - 70 77%
 Thu, Mar 5 286 @Delaware W 75 - 67 77%
 Sat, Mar 7 89 @Liberty L 73 - 79 30%
Totals 18 - 10 13 - 7 +4 +3 C+ B- C +1 C+ C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.3 3.9 1st
2nd 0.3 5.6 20.1 23.4 13.0 1.9 64.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 8.9 5.6 0.6 17.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.7 3.4 0.3 7.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 2.3 0.4 3.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 0.6 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.1 9.0 18.2 26.1 24.7 14.7 3.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 41.3% 1.3    0.6 0.7
15-5 11.8% 1.7    0.6 1.1 0.0
14-6 3.2% 0.8    0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 1.3 2.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 3.2% 32.4% 32.4% 11.8 0.3 0.8 0.0 2.2
15-5 14.7% 30.2% 30.2% 12.4 0.1 2.7 1.6 0.1 10.3
14-6 24.7% 25.8% 25.8% 12.6 0.0 2.5 3.5 0.3 18.3
13-7 26.1% 22.5% 22.5% 12.9 0.0 1.5 3.4 0.9 0.0 20.3
12-8 18.2% 16.4% 16.4% 13.1 0.5 1.8 0.7 0.0 15.3
11-9 9.0% 12.1% 12.1% 13.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 7.9
10-10 3.1% 6.0% 6.0% 13.6 0.1 0.1 2.9
9-11 0.7% 3.4% 3.4% 15.0 0.0 0.7
8-12 0.1% 7.7% 7.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 22.0% 22.0% 0.0% 12.7 78.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 11.8 25.0 72.1 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%