Samford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.8 #229
Expected Predictive Rating -2.5 #209
Pace 67.6 #229
Improvement +1.5 #103

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #178 D D- A C C
Defense #286 C C F B- A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #253 1.18 #149 -1.3 #230
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #195 0.64 #312 -1.5 #248
Three Pointers 45% #112 0.89 #310 -0.8 #212
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #274 -3.5 #274
Freethrows 19.0 #94 67% #314 12.8 #169
Second Chance 26.3% #301 0.94 #295 0.25 #315
Turnovers 13.1% #16
Total Offense -0.4 #178

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #199 1.06 #67 +2.2 #105
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #17 0.85 #307 -4.4 #362
Three Pointers 34% #347 1.15 #335 +1.4 #130
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #204 -0.8 #206
Freethrows 15.3 #80 75% #280 11.5 #256
Second Chance 29.0% #118 1.15 #297 0.33 #212
Turnovers 13.3% #339
Total Defense -3.5 #286

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #205 -2.1% #33
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.8% #289 3.7% #248
Possession Length 17.9 #235 17.3 #191
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #348 0.17 #169
Improvement +1.1 #105 +0.3 #162

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.3% 9.2% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.3
.500 or above 60.6% 74.3% 47.7%
.500 or above in Conference 73.9% 85.8% 62.6%
Conference Champion 6.3% 9.6% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four0.9% 0.7% 1.0%
First Round7.0% 8.8% 5.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Away) - 48.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 63 - 10
Quad 413 - 516 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 176 @Tulane L 72 - 85 29%  -6  0 - 1 -11 +5 D+ B- C -17 F A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 7 357 South Carolina St. W 82 - 72 90%  +1  1 - 1 -8 -0 F F B+ -8 D C- F
 Wed, Nov 12 335 @Texas Southern W 93 - 90 OT 65%  -1  2 - 1 -5 +9 D- D+ A- -14 F A+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 19 @Arkansas L 75 - 79 3%  -8  2 - 2 +15 +7 B- F A+ +9 A- A+ C-
 Sun, Nov 16 261 @Central Arkansas W 84 - 77 OT 46%  -3  3 - 2 +4 +4 C+ F A+ -0 C+ A+ D
 Wed, Nov 19 189 Florida Gulf Coast L 62 - 77 54%  -9  3 - 3 -20 -15 F F B+ -6 C- F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 136 @New Mexico St. L 72 - 81 21%  -10  3 - 4 -5 +10 D C A+ -15 F F F
 Tue, Nov 25 304 Georgia St. W 78 - 63 66%  +7  4 - 4 +7 +3 C B F +4 A+ D- F
 Wed, Nov 26 101 Utah Valley L 45 - 89 20%  -23  4 - 5 -39 -26 F F F -11 D- C F
 Fri, Dec 5 49 @Virginia Commonwealth L 57 - 83 6%  -7  4 - 6 -12 -10 F F A -2 C C- B
 Sun, Dec 7 168 Cornell W 93 - 90 50%  -3  5 - 6 -1 +4 B- D B- -5 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 1 332 @VMI W 78 - 58 65%  +4  6 - 6 1 - 0 +12 +3 B- F A+ +10 B A C
 Sat, Jan 3 284 @UNC Greensboro L 82 - 89 50%  -8  6 - 7 1 - 1 -11 +10 C C A -22 F F F
 Wed, Jan 7 283 Western Carolina W 82 - 77 72%  -6  7 - 7 2 - 1 -5 +8 C C A+ -12 A F F
 Sat, Jan 10 273 @Chattanooga L 73 - 74 48% 
 Wed, Jan 14 150 Furman L 73 - 74 46% 
 Sat, Jan 17 128 East Tennessee St. L 72 - 75 40% 
 Wed, Jan 21 223 @Wofford L 74 - 78 37% 
 Sat, Jan 24 273 Chattanooga W 77 - 71 70% 
 Thu, Jan 29 150 @Furman L 70 - 77 25% 
 Sat, Jan 31 283 @Western Carolina W 78 - 77 50% 
 Thu, Feb 5 360 The Citadel W 81 - 67 91% 
 Sat, Feb 7 160 Mercer L 77 - 78 48% 
 Wed, Feb 11 223 Wofford W 77 - 75 59% 
 Sat, Feb 14 128 @East Tennessee St. L 69 - 78 21% 
 Thu, Feb 19 360 @The Citadel W 78 - 70 78% 
 Sat, Feb 21 160 @Mercer L 74 - 81 27% 
 Thu, Feb 26 332 VMI W 81 - 71 81% 
 Sat, Feb 28 284 UNC Greensboro W 80 - 74 71% 
Totals 15 - 14 10 - 8 -4 +0 D D- A -3 C C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.0 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.1 6.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 4.5 4.0 1.2 0.1 11.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 6.4 5.6 1.2 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 7.9 6.6 1.4 0.0 18.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 8.0 6.5 1.3 0.0 18.6 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 6.1 5.4 1.1 0.0 15.0 6th
7th 0.2 1.4 3.7 3.3 0.6 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.8 7.6 12.5 16.4 17.4 15.7 12.1 7.3 3.4 1.2 0.3 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 92.4% 1.2    0.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 64.8% 2.2    1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-5 27.9% 2.0    0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1
12-6 4.6% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.3% 6.3 2.8 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 23.0% 23.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 1.2% 20.9% 20.9% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0
14-4 3.4% 21.5% 21.5% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 2.6
13-5 7.3% 15.5% 15.5% 14.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 6.2
12-6 12.1% 11.1% 11.1% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 10.8
11-7 15.7% 9.2% 9.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.5 14.3
10-8 17.4% 6.5% 6.5% 15.5 0.0 0.5 0.6 16.3
9-9 16.4% 4.6% 4.6% 15.8 0.2 0.6 15.6
8-10 12.5% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3 12.2
7-11 7.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 7.5
6-12 3.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.8
5-13 1.7% 1.7
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 15.1 92.7 0.0%