Samford
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#118
Expected Predictive Rating+7.3#82
Pace78.1#16
Improvement-2.1#291

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#50
First Shot+3.1#89
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#42
Layup/Dunks+0.0#186
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#296
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.3#15
Freethrows-2.1#302
Improvement-0.1#183

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#258
First Shot-2.7#263
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#187
Layups/Dunks-1.0#204
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#141
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#220
Freethrows-1.5#293
Improvement-2.0#323
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.5% 23.8% 15.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.5
.500 or above 99.3% 99.5% 96.2%
.500 or above in Conference 95.0% 95.6% 81.7%
Conference Champion 32.7% 33.5% 13.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round23.5% 23.8% 15.8%
Second Round2.8% 2.9% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: The Citadel (Home) - 96.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 37 - 47 - 8
Quad 415 - 222 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 131   @ Cornell L 86-88 43%     0 - 1 +2.7 -1.2 +4.2
  Nov 15, 2024 197   @ North Alabama W 97-96 OT 56%     1 - 1 +2.2 +4.1 -2.1
  Nov 17, 2024 299   Texas Southern W 97-82 89%     2 - 1 +4.5 +13.9 -10.5
  Nov 19, 2024 14   @ Michigan St. L 75-83 8%     2 - 2 +10.7 +11.4 -0.6
  Nov 26, 2024 114   North Dakota St. W 103-98 OT 61%     3 - 2 +4.9 +19.6 -15.0
  Nov 27, 2024 145   Utah Valley W 84-76 70%     4 - 2 +5.5 +4.7 +0.2
  Nov 29, 2024 341   West Georgia W 86-65 94%     5 - 2 +6.7 +7.3 -0.4
  Dec 05, 2024 253   @ South Carolina St. W 88-81 68%     6 - 2 +5.0 +18.5 -13.2
  Dec 08, 2024 283   Austin Peay W 72-47 88%     7 - 2 +15.4 +3.5 +13.9
  Dec 18, 2024 11   @ Arizona L 64-96 7%     7 - 3 -12.9 -0.4 -11.8
  Dec 21, 2024 360   @ Alabama A&M W 97-90 90%     8 - 3 -4.3 +7.1 -12.2
  Jan 01, 2025 354   The Citadel W 87-68 96%    
  Jan 04, 2025 311   @ Western Carolina W 86-78 78%    
  Jan 09, 2025 344   VMI W 91-73 95%    
  Jan 11, 2025 161   UNC Greensboro W 80-74 71%    
  Jan 15, 2025 235   @ Mercer W 87-83 64%    
  Jan 18, 2025 142   East Tennessee St. W 83-78 68%    
  Jan 22, 2025 172   @ Chattanooga W 82-81 52%    
  Jan 25, 2025 151   Wofford W 82-76 70%    
  Jan 29, 2025 113   @ Furman L 76-79 39%    
  Feb 01, 2025 354   @ The Citadel W 84-71 87%    
  Feb 05, 2025 235   Mercer W 90-80 82%    
  Feb 08, 2025 142   @ East Tennessee St. L 80-81 46%    
  Feb 12, 2025 172   Chattanooga W 85-79 72%    
  Feb 15, 2025 151   @ Wofford L 79-80 49%    
  Feb 19, 2025 113   Furman W 79-76 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 311   Western Carolina W 89-75 90%    
  Feb 27, 2025 344   @ VMI W 88-76 85%    
  Mar 01, 2025 161   @ UNC Greensboro L 76-77 50%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 4.0 8.9 9.7 6.4 2.5 0.6 32.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 5.2 9.0 5.7 1.5 0.1 22.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.5 7.3 3.4 0.4 0.0 16.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.8 2.4 0.2 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.8 1.7 0.1 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.3 1.1 0.1 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.8 5.3 8.8 12.9 15.6 16.6 14.9 11.2 6.5 2.5 0.6 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 2.5    2.5 0.0
16-2 98.1% 6.4    5.8 0.5
15-3 86.7% 9.7    7.4 2.2 0.1
14-4 59.5% 8.9    4.4 3.7 0.7 0.0
13-5 24.2% 4.0    0.9 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.7% 32.7 21.8 8.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 59.7% 59.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2
17-1 2.5% 46.7% 46.7% 11.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.1 1.3
16-2 6.5% 42.5% 42.5% 12.2 0.2 1.8 0.8 0.0 3.7
15-3 11.2% 37.3% 37.3% 12.6 0.1 2.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.0
14-4 14.9% 30.4% 30.4% 12.9 0.0 1.2 2.6 0.8 0.0 10.4
13-5 16.6% 23.3% 23.3% 13.2 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.2 0.1 12.8
12-6 15.6% 19.1% 19.1% 13.5 0.2 1.4 1.2 0.2 12.7
11-7 12.9% 14.2% 14.2% 13.7 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 11.1
10-8 8.8% 11.4% 11.4% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 7.8
9-9 5.3% 9.1% 9.1% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 4.9
8-10 2.8% 6.7% 6.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.6
7-11 1.3% 5.4% 5.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
6-12 0.6% 2.9% 2.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.5
5-13 0.2% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.5% 23.5% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 6.6 9.7 5.3 1.0 0.1 76.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 10.6 0.6 2.8 2.2 2.2 6.1 10.6 54.2 21.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%