Samford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.8 #228
Expected Predictive Rating -4.5 #236
Pace 68.0 #209
Improvement +2.5 #79

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #152 C- D A- C+ C
Defense #295 C- C F+ C B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #272 1.20 #121 -1.2 #231
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #206 0.70 #273 -1.1 #240
Three Pointers 46% #81 0.91 #316 -0.1 #182
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #251 -2.5 #251
Freethrows 0.34 #54 67% #338 0.23 #143
Second Chance 25.0% #326 0.98 #244 0.24 #322
Turnovers 13.0% #16
Total Offense +0.3 #152

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #205 1.13 #141 +0.9 #142
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #11 0.87 #329 -4.8 #364
Three Pointers 33% #353 1.13 #325 +2.1 #102
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #238 -1.8 #238
Freethrows 0.29 #149 77% #352 0.22 #208
Second Chance 27.3% #68 1.14 #321 0.31 #170
Turnovers 12.9% #348
Total Defense -4.1 #295

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #200 -2.2% #27
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.7% #259 5.8% #295
Possession Length 17.4 #194 17.4 #223
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #333 0.15 #126
Improvement +3.1 #46 -0.7 #225

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 6.3% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 32.1% 36.2% 10.4%
.500 or above in Conference 55.3% 61.1% 23.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four1.9% 1.8% 2.3%
First Round5.0% 5.4% 3.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: The Citadel (Home) - 84.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 72 - 11
Quad 412 - 614 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 171 @Tulane L 72 - 85 28% -6  0 - 1 -11 +5 C- B- C+ -17 F A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 7 359 South Carolina St. W 82 - 72 90% +1  1 - 1 -8 -1 D- D- B- -7 C- C- F+
 Wed, Nov 12 309 @Texas Southern W 93 - 90 OT 58% -1  2 - 1 -3 +8 D C B+ -11 F A+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 22 @Arkansas L 75 - 79 3% -8  2 - 2 +15 +6 C+ F+ A+ +9 A- A+ C
 Sun, Nov 16 219 @Central Arkansas W 84 - 77 OT 37% -3  3 - 2 +7 +5 C F A+ +1 B- B D+
 Wed, Nov 19 223 Florida Gulf Coast L 62 - 77 60% -9  3 - 3 -21 -14 F D- B -8 D F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 167 @New Mexico St. L 72 - 81 28% -10  3 - 4 -7 +8 D- C+ A+ -16 F F F
 Tue, Nov 25 268 Georgia St. W 78 - 63 59% +7  4 - 4 +9 +4 C B D- +5 A+ D D-
 Wed, Nov 26 100 Utah Valley L 45 - 89 21% -23  4 - 5 -39 -26 F F D+ -11 D- C+ D
 Fri, Dec 5 50 @Virginia Commonwealth L 57 - 83 6% -7  4 - 6 -13 -12 F F B+ -1 C- C B
 Sun, Dec 7 176 Cornell W 93 - 90 51% -3  5 - 6 -1 +3 C+ C- C -4 A+ D- F
 Thu, Jan 1 356 @VMI W 78 - 58 76% +4  6 - 6 1 - 0 +9 +1 B F A+ +8 B B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 312 @UNC Greensboro L 82 - 89 59% -8  6 - 7 1 - 1 -13 +10 C C+ B+ -23 F+ F F
 Wed, Jan 7 277 Western Carolina W 82 - 77 71% -6  7 - 7 2 - 1 -4 +5 C- C A -9 A- F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 275 @Chattanooga L 79 - 88 48% -14  7 - 8 2 - 2 -12 +1 C+ F B+ -13 D+ C+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 164 Furman L 73 - 77 48% -2  7 - 9 2 - 3 -7 -2 C- D- B -6 C+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 131 East Tennessee St. L 75 - 76 40% -5  7 - 10 2 - 4 -2 +13 B D+ A+ -15 F+ C+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 200 @Wofford L 78 - 88 34% -1  7 - 11 2 - 5 -10 +9 B- C B+ -19 F C F+
 Sat, Jan 24 275 Chattanooga W 75 - 64 70% +1  8 - 11 3 - 5 +2 +7 D F+ A+ -4 C C F+
 Thu, Jan 29 164 @Furman L 73 - 78 27% -4  8 - 12 3 - 6 -2 +8 D+ B- A+ -11 F+ F B-
 Sun, Feb 1 277 @Western Carolina W 88 - 74 49% +8  9 - 12 4 - 6 +11 +8 B- C D+ +2 A- A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 344 The Citadel W 78 - 67 84%
 Sat, Feb 7 148 Mercer L 81 - 82 45%
 Wed, Feb 11 200 Wofford W 79 - 77 57%
 Sat, Feb 14 131 @East Tennessee St. L 70 - 79 20%
 Thu, Feb 19 344 @The Citadel W 75 - 70 68%
 Sat, Feb 21 148 @Mercer L 78 - 85 24%
 Thu, Feb 26 356 VMI W 83 - 69 89%
 Sat, Feb 28 312 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 74 77%
Totals 14 - 15 9 - 9 -4 +0 C- D A- -4 C- C F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.6 2.3 0.4 3.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 6.1 2.6 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.3 9.1 22.1 11.4 0.8 43.8 5th
6th 0.0 4.4 13.7 5.8 0.3 0.0 24.3 6th
7th 0.8 6.7 2.9 0.1 10.6 7th
8th 0.2 2.4 2.2 0.1 4.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.1 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.8 4.4 13.8 25.7 29.6 18.5 6.1 1.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 5.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 1.1% 17.6% 17.6% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
11-7 6.1% 13.9% 13.9% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 5.2
10-8 18.5% 8.3% 8.3% 15.5 0.0 0.7 0.9 16.9
9-9 29.6% 6.2% 6.2% 15.7 0.6 1.2 27.8
8-10 25.7% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 1.2 24.5
7-11 13.8% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 13.5
6-12 4.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 4.3
5-13 0.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.1% 0.0 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 15.5 94.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.9 22.5 62.5 15.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%