Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.9 #130
Expected Predictive Rating +0.8 #156
Pace 72.8 #80
Improvement +0.2 #174

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #198 C C+ C C- D-
Defense #88 C+ C+ C B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #71 1.17 #159 +2.8 #94
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #17 1.00 #10 +8.0 #2
Three Pointers 26% #364 0.82 #345 -10.2 #364
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #160 +0.6 #160
Freethrows 17.2 #198 67% #317 11.6 #246
Second Chance 30.3% #201 1.17 #52 0.36 #106
Turnovers 16.5% #173
Total Offense -1.1 #198

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #272 1.11 #121 +2.7 #88
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #140 0.84 #297 -1.3 #272
Three Pointers 43% #121 0.94 #104 +0.4 #168
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #122 +1.8 #122
Freethrows 15.3 #78 69% #53 10.5 #309
Second Chance 29.1% #120 1.02 #164 0.30 #126
Turnovers 17.3% #140
Total Defense +3.0 #88

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.1% #303 -0.7% #108
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.5% #129 -2.8% #129
Possession Length 15.7 #52 17.5 #225
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #103 0.14 #85
Improvement -3.9 #355 +4.0 #8

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 4.6% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.6
.500 or above 48.2% 56.2% 28.9%
.500 or above in Conference 52.6% 61.3% 31.8%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.7% 3.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round4.1% 4.5% 3.1%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Home) - 70.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 73 - 8
Quad 34 - 77 - 15
Quad 49 - 116 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 343 UMKC W 101 - 78 93%  +11  1 - 0 +8 +15 A+ A+ B- -9 B- F F
 Wed, Nov 12 90 @Nevada L 81 - 86 OT 24%  +1  1 - 1 +4 +3 C F A+ +2 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 146 @North Dakota St. L 85 - 92 42%  -4  1 - 2 -3 +5 A- C D+ -8 F D+ C-
 Sun, Nov 23 277 Delaware W 79 - 59 79%  +10  2 - 2 +13 +7 C- A+ C +7 C+ C- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 113 UAB L 73 - 81 43%  -5  2 - 3 -4 +1 C- D+ A+ -6 C F C
 Wed, Nov 26 78 @Memphis L 58 - 74 20%  -11  2 - 4 -5 -7 F B+ B +2 B C- B+
 Sat, Nov 29 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 74 - 65 88%  +1  3 - 4 -2 +3 A D- F -4 F B A-
 Wed, Dec 3 86 @High Point W 86 - 84 22%  -3  4 - 4 +12 +10 C- A+ A+ +2 B+ B+ C+
 Wed, Dec 10 235 Tennessee Martin W 83 - 54 80%  +15  5 - 4 +22 +8 A+ C+ D- +14 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 115 @Richmond L 84 - 93 OT 32%  -2  5 - 5 -2 -4 F B F +4 D+ A+ D+
 Thu, Dec 18 85 Illinois St. L 68 - 75 42%  +0  5 - 6 0 - 1 -3 -3 C+ A F -0 B- F B+
 Sun, Dec 21 116 @Bradley L 69 - 73 32%  -4  5 - 7 0 - 2 +3 -1 D- C A- +4 B D A+
 Mon, Dec 29 91 @Murray St. L 81 - 84 24%  -7  5 - 8 0 - 3 +6 +5 C- A+ D +1 F A+ A-
 Thu, Jan 1 188 Valparaiso W 75 - 70 74%  +5  6 - 8 1 - 3 +0 -3 D C- A+ +3 A+ A+ D
 Sun, Jan 4 73 @Belmont W 68 - 67 19%  +0  7 - 8 2 - 3 +12 -0 B C- F +12 C A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 7 184 @Illinois-Chicago L 57 - 70 52%  -8  7 - 9 2 - 4 -12 -10 C+ F F -3 A- F F
 Wed, Jan 14 169 Drake W 75 - 69 71% 
 Sat, Jan 17 73 Belmont L 76 - 79 38% 
 Wed, Jan 21 188 @Valparaiso W 71 - 70 54% 
 Sun, Jan 25 263 @Evansville W 73 - 68 67% 
 Wed, Jan 28 96 Northern Iowa L 63 - 64 48% 
 Sat, Jan 31 184 Illinois-Chicago W 76 - 69 73% 
 Tue, Feb 3 85 @Illinois St. L 69 - 77 23% 
 Fri, Feb 6 91 Murray St. L 80 - 81 45% 
 Mon, Feb 9 191 @Indiana St. W 75 - 74 54% 
 Thu, Feb 12 263 Evansville W 76 - 65 84% 
 Sun, Feb 15 116 Bradley W 73 - 72 55% 
 Wed, Feb 18 169 @Drake L 71 - 72 49% 
 Sat, Feb 21 96 @Northern Iowa L 60 - 67 27% 
 Wed, Feb 25 191 Indiana St. W 78 - 71 74% 
Totals 15 - 15 10 - 10 +2 -1 C C+ C +3 C+ C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.6 0.8 0.0 5.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.9 1.7 0.1 9.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 5.3 7.9 3.5 0.3 18.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 7.9 10.3 4.1 0.5 25.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 6.7 7.2 2.4 0.2 18.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 4.2 4.5 1.2 0.1 11.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.6 0.7 0.1 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.7 8.7 14.2 17.4 18.5 15.2 10.7 5.4 2.2 0.6 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 84.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 45.9% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
14-6 9.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.6% 21.6% 21.6% 11.6 0.1 0.1 0.4
14-6 2.2% 9.5% 9.5% 12.1 0.2 0.0 2.0
13-7 5.4% 10.9% 10.9% 12.2 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.8
12-8 10.7% 7.2% 7.2% 12.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 9.9
11-9 15.2% 6.4% 6.4% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 14.3
10-10 18.5% 3.7% 3.7% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 17.8
9-11 17.4% 2.3% 2.3% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 17.0
8-12 14.2% 1.9% 1.9% 15.2 0.2 0.0 13.9
7-13 8.7% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.7
6-14 4.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 4.6
5-15 1.8% 1.8
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 13.0 95.8 0.0%