Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#198
Expected Predictive Rating-4.3#238
Pace70.6#132
Improvement-2.9#331

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#222
First Shot-3.8#287
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#72
Layup/Dunks+2.0#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#283
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#309
Freethrows+0.3#155
Improvement-0.4#202

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#160
First Shot+0.5#155
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#221
Layups/Dunks-3.5#311
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#78
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#91
Freethrows+0.7#137
Improvement-2.6#338
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.5% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 12.6% 26.3% 9.5%
.500 or above in Conference 28.6% 49.3% 23.9%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.7% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 9.9% 3.5% 11.3%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round1.5% 2.5% 1.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Away) - 18.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 35 - 96 - 16
Quad 46 - 312 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 117   College of Charleston L 80-90 33%     0 - 1 -7.1 +1.0 -7.1
  Nov 14, 2024 96   @ Oklahoma St. L 78-85 17%     0 - 2 +1.3 +6.0 -4.4
  Nov 18, 2024 114   North Dakota St. W 69-44 43%     1 - 2 +24.9 -2.7 +29.5
  Nov 22, 2024 7   @ Florida L 68-93 2%     1 - 3 -2.8 +2.7 -4.7
  Nov 25, 2024 103   Louisiana Tech L 79-85 OT 27%     1 - 4 -1.4 -4.7 +4.4
  Nov 26, 2024 230   Eastern Kentucky L 72-77 57%     1 - 5 -8.6 -6.6 -1.9
  Dec 03, 2024 78   Bradley L 60-83 28%     1 - 6 0 - 1 -18.6 -10.7 -8.6
  Dec 07, 2024 325   Southern Indiana W 73-70 84%     2 - 6 -9.3 +0.4 -9.4
  Dec 14, 2024 283   @ Austin Peay W 65-60 57%     3 - 6 +1.4 +0.0 +1.9
  Dec 21, 2024 123   High Point L 81-94 46%     3 - 7 -13.7 +1.7 -15.0
  Dec 29, 2024 99   @ Northern Iowa L 66-76 18%    
  Jan 01, 2025 315   Evansville W 76-66 83%    
  Jan 05, 2025 141   @ Illinois St. L 68-74 30%    
  Jan 08, 2025 130   @ Belmont L 76-82 28%    
  Jan 11, 2025 171   Missouri St. W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 15, 2025 171   @ Missouri St. L 67-71 35%    
  Jan 18, 2025 99   Northern Iowa L 69-73 37%    
  Jan 22, 2025 133   Murray St. L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 25, 2025 192   @ Illinois-Chicago L 73-76 39%    
  Jan 28, 2025 224   @ Valparaiso L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 01, 2025 80   @ Drake L 59-71 13%    
  Feb 05, 2025 315   @ Evansville W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 192   Illinois-Chicago W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 12, 2025 78   @ Bradley L 66-78 14%    
  Feb 15, 2025 130   Belmont L 79-80 49%    
  Feb 19, 2025 133   @ Murray St. L 66-72 28%    
  Feb 22, 2025 224   Valparaiso W 77-72 67%    
  Feb 25, 2025 141   Illinois St. W 71-70 51%    
  Mar 02, 2025 150   @ Indiana St. L 77-82 33%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.2 2.6 0.3 10.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.0 3.7 0.5 0.0 12.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.2 4.5 0.8 0.0 14.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.0 5.8 4.4 1.0 0.1 14.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.3 4.8 3.0 0.7 0.0 13.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.8 5.4 8.9 11.6 13.9 14.4 13.1 10.5 7.7 5.3 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 81.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 53.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 30.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 27.3% 27.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.2% 17.9% 17.9% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.6% 11.8% 11.8% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-6 1.4% 10.3% 10.3% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2
13-7 2.9% 6.4% 6.4% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.7
12-8 5.3% 5.0% 5.0% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.0
11-9 7.7% 3.4% 3.4% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.4
10-10 10.5% 2.0% 2.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 10.3
9-11 13.1% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 12.9
8-12 14.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 14.3
7-13 13.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.9
6-14 11.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.6
5-15 8.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.8
4-16 5.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.4
3-17 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.8
2-18 1.0% 1.0
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 98.5 0.0%