St. Thomas
Summit League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.2#125
Expected Predictive Rating+2.4#130
Pace70.1#149
Improvement+2.8#43

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#98
First Shot+6.7#30
After Offensive Rebound-3.8#343
Layup/Dunks+3.5#63
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#350
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#22
Freethrows+0.2#166
Improvement+2.1#50

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#189
First Shot-0.9#200
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#164
Layups/Dunks+1.2#125
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#163
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#263
Freethrows-0.6#232
Improvement+0.7#137
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.0% 28.6% 23.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.2 13.7
.500 or above 96.9% 98.9% 94.9%
.500 or above in Conference 94.1% 95.8% 92.4%
Conference Champion 34.0% 37.9% 30.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.6%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round25.9% 28.6% 23.2%
Second Round2.6% 3.3% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Away) - 50.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 45 - 8
Quad 415 - 220 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 329   @ Green Bay W 90-76 80%     1 - 0 +7.4 +9.9 -2.8
  Nov 10, 2024 96   @ Oklahoma St. L 71-80 28%     1 - 1 -0.7 -2.6 +2.6
  Nov 17, 2024 59   @ Arizona St. L 66-81 17%     1 - 2 -2.7 +1.4 -4.3
  Nov 22, 2024 151   Wofford L 73-81 58%     1 - 3 -7.8 +0.0 -8.0
  Nov 23, 2024 251   Portland St. W 91-65 75%     2 - 3 +21.1 +14.3 +6.3
  Nov 24, 2024 132   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 65-69 41%     2 - 4 +0.6 -6.4 +7.0
  Dec 02, 2024 361   Chicago St. W 98-76 96%     3 - 4 +4.4 +7.5 -5.8
  Dec 04, 2024 180   @ Northern Colorado W 87-75 51%     4 - 4 +14.0 +18.6 -3.9
  Dec 07, 2024 191   Montana W 88-81 74%     5 - 4 +2.4 +9.9 -7.6
  Dec 13, 2024 293   Western Michigan W 77-71 87%     6 - 4 -4.1 +4.0 -7.6
  Dec 21, 2024 289   @ Bowling Green W 93-68 72%     7 - 4 +21.1 +6.9 +11.3
  Dec 29, 2024 177   @ UC Riverside W 74-73 50%    
  Jan 02, 2025 114   @ North Dakota St. L 74-78 37%    
  Jan 04, 2025 275   @ North Dakota W 81-75 70%    
  Jan 08, 2025 120   South Dakota St. W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 11, 2025 236   South Dakota W 90-81 81%    
  Jan 18, 2025 319   Denver W 82-68 90%    
  Jan 23, 2025 294   @ Nebraska Omaha W 78-72 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 222   @ UMKC W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 29, 2025 284   Oral Roberts W 83-71 86%    
  Feb 01, 2025 114   North Dakota St. W 77-75 59%    
  Feb 06, 2025 120   @ South Dakota St. L 74-77 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 319   @ Denver W 79-71 77%    
  Feb 15, 2025 294   Nebraska Omaha W 81-69 87%    
  Feb 19, 2025 236   @ South Dakota W 87-84 62%    
  Feb 22, 2025 284   @ Oral Roberts W 80-74 70%    
  Feb 27, 2025 275   North Dakota W 84-72 85%    
  Mar 01, 2025 222   UMKC W 77-68 78%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.3 7.2 10.8 8.7 3.9 0.9 34.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.8 9.3 8.8 3.6 0.5 26.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.4 8.0 5.6 1.4 0.0 20.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.2 1.6 2.4 0.8 0.1 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.4 6.6 10.2 14.2 17.4 17.4 14.5 9.2 3.9 0.9 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
15-1 100.0% 3.9    3.8 0.1
14-2 95.1% 8.7    7.4 1.3 0.0
13-3 74.7% 10.8    6.9 3.6 0.3
12-4 41.6% 7.2    3.0 3.4 0.8 0.1
11-5 12.9% 2.3    0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 34.0% 34.0 22.4 9.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.9% 55.2% 55.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-1 3.9% 47.3% 47.3% 12.3 0.1 1.1 0.6 0.0 2.0
14-2 9.2% 40.2% 40.2% 12.8 0.0 1.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.5
13-3 14.5% 35.9% 35.9% 13.1 0.0 0.9 2.8 1.4 0.1 9.3
12-4 17.4% 29.7% 29.7% 13.5 0.3 2.3 2.2 0.3 12.2
11-5 17.4% 23.8% 23.8% 13.8 0.1 1.2 2.2 0.7 0.0 13.3
10-6 14.2% 19.2% 19.2% 14.1 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.7 0.1 11.5
9-7 10.2% 14.7% 14.7% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 8.7
8-8 6.6% 11.6% 11.6% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 5.8
7-9 3.4% 9.7% 9.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.1
6-10 1.6% 7.3% 7.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.4
5-11 0.6% 4.3% 4.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.6
4-12 0.2% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 26.0% 26.0% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.9 9.5 8.6 3.1 0.4 74.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.3 4.5 6.5 48.7 39.6 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%