St. Thomas
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.5 #135
Expected Predictive Rating +3.0 #122
Pace 70.4 #152
Improvement +2.6 #58

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #116 A- F B- D A
Defense #189 C D+ B+ C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #61 1.36 #19 +7.3 #12
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% #347 0.60 #338 -4.7 #357
Three Pointers 47% #67 1.07 #113 +4.3 #51
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #28 +6.9 #28
Freethrows 14.8 #305 72% #205 10.7 #295
Second Chance 18.7% #364 1.04 #196 0.19 #359
Turnovers 15.3% #101
Total Offense +2.1 #116

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #112 1.21 #253 -2.5 #264
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #288 0.63 #36 +2.4 #33
Three Pointers 42% #149 1.01 #184 -0.6 #203
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #203 -0.8 #203
Freethrows 15.2 #77 80% #362 12.2 #197
Second Chance 30.0% #147 1.22 #336 0.37 #283
Turnovers 19.1% #57
Total Defense -0.5 #189

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.5% #16 1.3% #291
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.6% #46 0.2% #182
Possession Length 16.9 #142 17.1 #151
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #176 0.15 #97
Improvement +3.5 #19 -0.9 #242

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.0% 36.0% 28.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 98.7% 99.4% 96.8%
Conference Champion 51.1% 57.4% 35.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round33.9% 36.0% 28.7%
Second Round1.9% 2.2% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oral Roberts (Away) - 72.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 35 - 45 - 6
Quad 417 - 322 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 41 @St. Mary's L 58 - 84 10%  -11  0 - 1 -11 -3 A+ F C -10 F A+ C+
 Sat, Nov 8 330 Army W 83 - 76 91%  +11  1 - 1 -7 +5 C+ C B -11 F C C-
 Mon, Nov 10 145 @Washington St. L 71 - 81 41%  -15  1 - 2 -6 +2 B F B- -8 C- F A+
 Thu, Nov 13 249 Green Bay W 80 - 61 81%  +19  2 - 2 +11 +1 A F C +10 A- C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 218 @Southeast Missouri St. W 84 - 72 56%  +13  3 - 2 +12 +5 A+ F F +6 B C- B
 Fri, Nov 21 161 Northern Colorado W 73 - 72 57%  -5  4 - 2 +1 -4 D+ C F +5 B F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 232 Cal St. Fullerton L 80 - 88 70%  +1  4 - 3 -12 -2 F D- A+ -9 C C D+
 Sun, Nov 23 238 @Portland W 76 - 66 61%  +5  5 - 3 +9 +1 C+ D+ A+ +7 C F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 153 @Montana St. L 74 - 82 44%  -1  5 - 4 -5 +6 A+ F F -11 C- C- F
 Sun, Dec 7 212 Weber St. W 88 - 65 76%  +18  6 - 4 +17 +10 A+ B C +7 A- C+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 239 @UNC Asheville W 80 - 59 61%  +13  7 - 4 +20 +10 A+ F B+ +10 A- C+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 295 UC Riverside W 92 - 78 87%  +7  8 - 4 +3 +15 A+ D- A+ -11 D+ F C
 Sun, Jan 4 264 Denver W 92 - 88 84%  +3  9 - 4 1 - 0 -5 +7 C+ F A+ -12 C- F C
 Wed, Jan 7 290 South Dakota W 99 - 86 86%  +15  10 - 4 2 - 0 +3 +14 A+ F A+ -12 F C A
 Sat, Jan 10 298 @Oral Roberts W 78 - 72 72% 
 Thu, Jan 15 319 @North Dakota W 81 - 73 78% 
 Sat, Jan 17 146 @North Dakota St. L 74 - 76 41% 
 Thu, Jan 22 173 South Dakota St. W 81 - 75 70% 
 Sat, Jan 24 290 @South Dakota W 86 - 80 70% 
 Thu, Jan 29 319 North Dakota W 84 - 70 90% 
 Sun, Feb 1 343 UMKC W 83 - 67 93% 
 Wed, Feb 4 173 @South Dakota St. L 78 - 79 48% 
 Sat, Feb 7 298 Oral Roberts W 81 - 69 87% 
 Thu, Feb 12 257 @Nebraska Omaha W 79 - 75 64% 
 Sat, Feb 14 343 @UMKC W 80 - 70 82% 
 Sat, Feb 21 264 @Denver W 85 - 80 66% 
 Thu, Feb 26 146 North Dakota St. W 77 - 73 63% 
 Sat, Feb 28 257 Nebraska Omaha W 82 - 72 82% 
Totals 20 - 8 12 - 4 +2 +2 A- F B- -1 C D+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.8 9.5 15.4 14.1 7.2 1.8 51.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.4 9.9 10.0 4.4 0.6 29.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.1 3.4 0.6 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 2.0 0.7 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.7 5.9 10.5 16.2 20.0 19.8 14.7 7.2 1.8 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
15-1 100.0% 7.2    7.0 0.1
14-2 96.0% 14.1    12.5 1.7
13-3 77.8% 15.4    10.6 4.6 0.2
12-4 47.5% 9.5    4.2 4.3 0.9 0.0
11-5 17.6% 2.8    0.5 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 51.1% 51.1 36.7 12.2 2.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.8% 62.1% 62.1% 11.9 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.7
15-1 7.2% 53.5% 53.5% 12.9 0.1 1.0 2.1 0.6 0.0 3.3
14-2 14.7% 44.1% 44.1% 13.4 0.5 3.2 2.6 0.2 8.2
13-3 19.8% 39.7% 39.7% 13.7 0.2 2.6 4.3 0.8 0.0 11.9
12-4 20.0% 32.5% 32.5% 14.0 0.0 1.2 3.7 1.5 0.0 13.5
11-5 16.2% 27.3% 27.3% 14.2 0.5 2.3 1.5 0.0 11.7
10-6 10.5% 21.1% 21.1% 14.6 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.1 8.2
9-7 5.9% 18.3% 18.3% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 4.8
8-8 2.7% 13.7% 13.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 2.4
7-9 0.9% 11.2% 11.2% 15.5 0.1 0.1 0.8
6-10 0.3% 11.5% 11.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
5-11 0.1% 0.0 0.1
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 34.0% 34.0% 0.0% 13.7 66.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 11.9 23.3 65.0 11.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%