St. Thomas
Summit League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#119
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#110
Pace69.2#156
Improvement+1.2#130

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#70
First Shot+7.9#19
After Offensive Rebound-3.5#343
Layup/Dunks+2.7#90
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.6#10
Freethrows+1.0#117
Improvement+1.6#96

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#231
First Shot-1.7#232
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#219
Layups/Dunks+1.5#112
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#209
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#250
Freethrows-2.0#312
Improvement-0.4#209
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.2% 32.4% 27.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.8 13.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 80.6% 93.2% 73.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round29.2% 32.4% 27.4%
Second Round2.7% 3.7% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Away) - 36.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 34 - 46 - 7
Quad 416 - 122 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 347   @ Green Bay W 90-76 87%     1 - 0 +4.5 +8.9 -4.8
  Nov 10, 2024 102   @ Oklahoma St. L 71-80 33%     1 - 1 -1.9 -2.3 +1.0
  Nov 17, 2024 61   @ Arizona St. L 66-81 20%     1 - 2 -3.5 +1.9 -5.7
  Nov 22, 2024 151   Wofford L 73-81 56%     1 - 3 -7.2 +0.0 -7.4
  Nov 23, 2024 215   Portland St. W 91-65 70%     2 - 3 +23.0 +16.1 +6.4
  Nov 24, 2024 133   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 65-69 43%     2 - 4 +0.1 -5.1 +5.1
  Dec 02, 2024 359   Chicago St. W 98-76 95%     3 - 4 +5.3 +8.8 -6.1
  Dec 04, 2024 154   @ Northern Colorado W 87-75 47%     4 - 4 +15.1 +18.9 -3.0
  Dec 07, 2024 207   Montana W 88-81 75%     5 - 4 +2.2 +9.5 -7.4
  Dec 13, 2024 306   Western Michigan W 77-71 89%     6 - 4 -4.8 +4.5 -8.9
  Dec 21, 2024 312   @ Bowling Green W 93-68 79%     7 - 4 +18.9 +6.1 +10.0
  Dec 29, 2024 163   @ UC Riverside L 79-81 OT 49%     7 - 5 +0.7 -1.1 +2.0
  Jan 02, 2025 139   @ North Dakota St. W 89-85 45%     8 - 5 1 - 0 +7.8 +19.8 -11.8
  Jan 04, 2025 269   @ North Dakota W 88-80 72%     9 - 5 2 - 0 +4.4 +6.1 -2.0
  Jan 08, 2025 114   South Dakota St. W 73-72 57%     10 - 5 3 - 0 +1.5 +6.7 -5.1
  Jan 11, 2025 262   South Dakota W 119-104 84%     11 - 5 4 - 0 +6.8 +25.9 -20.4
  Jan 18, 2025 331   Denver W 74-62 92%     12 - 5 5 - 0 -1.1 -0.3 +0.1
  Jan 23, 2025 212   @ Nebraska Omaha L 78-89 60%     12 - 6 5 - 1 -11.2 +1.4 -12.4
  Jan 25, 2025 235   @ UMKC W 68-65 66%     13 - 6 6 - 1 +1.2 +2.8 -1.3
  Jan 29, 2025 315   Oral Roberts W 86-71 90%     14 - 6 7 - 1 +3.5 +13.3 -8.1
  Feb 02, 2025 139   North Dakota St. W 79-62 64%     15 - 6 8 - 1 +15.8 +10.3 +7.5
  Feb 06, 2025 114   @ South Dakota St. L 76-79 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 331   @ Denver W 81-70 83%    
  Feb 15, 2025 212   Nebraska Omaha W 82-74 78%    
  Feb 19, 2025 262   @ South Dakota W 91-85 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 315   @ Oral Roberts W 84-75 78%    
  Feb 27, 2025 269   North Dakota W 87-76 86%    
  Mar 01, 2025 235   UMKC W 76-67 81%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.9 10.9 29.3 29.1 10.5 80.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 3.7 7.8 2.1 0.1 13.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 2.6 0.8 4.9 3rd
4th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.3 1.8 7.3 19.5 31.4 29.2 10.5 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 10.5    10.5
14-2 99.7% 29.1    28.0 1.1
13-3 93.3% 29.3    18.7 9.8 0.8
12-4 55.7% 10.9    3.0 5.4 2.4 0.1
11-5 12.0% 0.9    0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8
Total 80.6% 80.6 60.3 16.5 3.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 10.5% 36.1% 36.1% 12.2 0.3 2.5 0.9 0.0 6.7
14-2 29.2% 32.7% 32.7% 12.9 0.0 2.4 5.4 1.6 0.1 19.6
13-3 31.4% 29.0% 29.0% 13.3 0.8 4.8 3.2 0.3 22.3
12-4 19.5% 24.8% 24.8% 13.7 0.1 1.8 2.4 0.5 0.0 14.7
11-5 7.3% 21.5% 21.5% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.3 5.7
10-6 1.8% 17.9% 17.9% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.5
9-7 0.3% 9.1% 9.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 29.2% 29.2% 0.0% 13.1 0.4 5.9 13.4 8.3 1.3 0.0 70.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.8% 100.0% 12.2 8.7 67.0 24.0 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.3%