St. Thomas
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.7 #133
Expected Predictive Rating +1.9 #130
Pace 70.4 #140
Improvement +1.8 #106

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #122 B+ F+ B- C B+
Defense #164 C D+ C+ C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #88 1.35 #20 +6.0 #18
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% #347 0.61 #346 -4.7 #358
Three Pointers 48% #40 1.07 #97 +5.0 #40
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #32 +6.2 #32
Freethrows 0.30 #197 71% #226 0.21 #206
Second Chance 20.5% #361 0.95 #286 0.19 #361
Turnovers 15.3% #95
Total Offense +1.8 #122

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #95 1.22 #262 -3.3 #295
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #281 0.68 #57 +1.9 #50
Three Pointers 41% #199 0.98 #120 +1.1 #132
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #193 -0.4 #191
Freethrows 0.27 #69 75% #315 0.20 #104
Second Chance 30.0% #154 1.20 #352 0.36 #297
Turnovers 17.9% #106
Total Defense -0.1 #164

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.2% #20 1.3% #294
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.7% #56 -0.6% #174
Possession Length 17.1 #154 17.0 #144
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #155 0.15 #98
Improvement +2.0 #79 -0.2 #200

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.0% 37.0% 31.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.4 13.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 20.9% 31.1% 10.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round34.0% 37.0% 31.1%
Second Round1.6% 1.9% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Away) - 49.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 35 - 35 - 6
Quad 417 - 322 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 42 @St. Mary's L 58 - 84 11% -11  0 - 1 -11 -2 A F C -11 F+ B C
 Sat, Nov 8 336 Army W 83 - 76 92% +11  1 - 1 -7 +3 C- C B+ -10 D- C+ C-
 Mon, Nov 10 122 @Washington St. L 71 - 81 36% -15  1 - 2 -4 +0 B- F B- -5 B- F A-
 Thu, Nov 13 258 Green Bay W 80 - 61 83% +19  2 - 2 +11 -1 B F C +12 A- C A
 Sat, Nov 15 238 @Southeast Missouri St. W 84 - 72 62% +13  3 - 2 +11 +5 A+ F D- +5 B C- C+
 Fri, Nov 21 190 Northern Colorado W 73 - 72 64% -5  4 - 2 -1 -5 D+ C D- +4 B F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 224 Cal St. Fullerton L 80 - 88 69% +1  4 - 3 -11 -0 F+ D A+ -10 C- C D
 Sun, Nov 23 232 @Portland W 76 - 66 60% +5  5 - 3 +9 +2 C D+ A- +7 C F+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 166 @Montana St. L 74 - 82 47% -1  5 - 4 -5 +5 A+ F F -11 C- D+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 221 Weber St. W 88 - 65 78% +18  6 - 4 +17 +10 A B- B- +6 B+ C A+
 Sat, Dec 13 209 @UNC Asheville W 80 - 59 57% +13  7 - 4 +21 +11 A- D- B+ +11 B+ D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 291 UC Riverside W 92 - 78 87% +7  8 - 4 +3 +16 A+ D A+ -12 D- C- C
 Sun, Jan 4 288 Denver W 92 - 88 87% +3  9 - 4 1 - 0 -6 +7 C+ D- B+ -13 D+ F C
 Wed, Jan 7 285 South Dakota W 99 - 86 86% +15  10 - 4 2 - 0 +3 +14 A+ D- A- -12 F D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 335 @Oral Roberts W 82 - 71 82% +2  11 - 4 3 - 0 +3 +11 B- F A+ -7 D C- F
 Thu, Jan 15 282 @North Dakota W 91 - 80 71% +5  12 - 4 4 - 0 +7 +11 A+ F+ C -4 C- F A
 Sat, Jan 17 139 @North Dakota St. L 65 - 68 40% -3  12 - 5 4 - 1 +1 -6 C F D +7 B- A- B-
 Thu, Jan 22 177 South Dakota St. W 74 - 69 71% -1  13 - 5 5 - 1 +1 -1 B- D+ F +2 C B- B-
 Sat, Jan 24 285 @South Dakota W 90 - 78 71% +2  14 - 5 6 - 1 +8 +14 B+ D C+ -6 C+ D F
 Thu, Jan 29 282 North Dakota L 80 - 81 86% +2  14 - 6 6 - 2 -11 +2 C- F+ A+ -13 F C- F+
 Sun, Feb 1 358 UMKC W 99 - 64 95% +23  15 - 6 7 - 2 +17 +15 A+ D+ C +1 A+ F+ C
 Wed, Feb 4 177 @South Dakota St. L 77 - 78 49%
 Sat, Feb 7 335 Oral Roberts W 83 - 67 93%
 Thu, Feb 12 241 @Nebraska Omaha W 77 - 74 62%
 Sat, Feb 14 358 @UMKC W 81 - 68 89%
 Sat, Feb 21 288 @Denver W 85 - 79 72%
 Thu, Feb 26 139 North Dakota St. W 76 - 73 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 241 Nebraska Omaha W 80 - 71 80%
Totals 20 - 8 12 - 4 +2 +2 B+ F+ B- +0 C D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.3 9.7 8.8 20.9 1st
2nd 0.1 3.0 16.3 28.2 17.8 2.3 67.7 2nd
3rd 0.6 3.7 3.8 0.7 0.0 8.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.2 2.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.7 7.8 20.4 31.3 27.5 11.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 79.5% 8.8    4.6 4.2
13-3 35.2% 9.7    2.8 6.6 0.3
12-4 7.4% 2.3    0.2 1.4 0.6 0.1
11-5 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 20.9% 20.9 7.6 12.2 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 11.0% 45.1% 45.1% 12.7 0.0 1.8 2.7 0.4 6.0
13-3 27.5% 38.1% 38.1% 13.4 0.6 5.3 4.3 0.3 0.0 17.0
12-4 31.3% 33.1% 33.1% 13.8 0.2 3.2 5.7 1.3 0.0 20.9
11-5 20.4% 29.6% 29.6% 14.1 0.0 1.1 3.4 1.5 0.0 14.4
10-6 7.8% 24.2% 24.2% 14.4 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.0 5.9
9-7 1.7% 13.1% 13.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.5
8-8 0.2% 14.3% 14.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
7-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 34.0% 34.0% 0.0% 13.6 66.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.0% 100.0% 12.7 0.4 36.4 54.4 8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.3%