Texas A&M - Commerce
Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.4#335
Expected Predictive Rating-12.8#342
Pace67.0#214
Improvement+1.7#125

Offense
Total Offense-7.4#340
First Shot-6.9#344
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#225
Layup/Dunks-4.1#322
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#305
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#110
Freethrows-2.5#320
Improvement+0.5#160

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#289
First Shot-3.2#282
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#250
Layups/Dunks-3.9#316
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#267
Freethrows+0.6#137
Improvement+1.2#120
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa (Away) - 1.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 30 - 80 - 14
Quad 45 - 125 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 60   @ Iowa L 65-89 1%    
  Nov 06, 2024 237   @ South Dakota L 76-86 17%    
  Nov 08, 2024 22   @ Texas A&M L 55-87 1%     0 - 1 -12.9 -4.5 -9.7
  Nov 13, 2024 240   Southern W 70-68 34%     1 - 1 -5.1 -3.4 -1.7
  Nov 19, 2024 28   @ Connecticut L 46-81 1%     1 - 2 -17.8 -23.0 +6.3
  Nov 21, 2024 38   @ Oklahoma L 56-84 1%     1 - 3 -12.3 -10.5 -2.1
  Nov 25, 2024 331   @ Stonehill L 65-67 37%     1 - 4 -9.9 -3.7 -6.5
  Nov 30, 2024 165   Purdue Fort Wayne L 57-77 21%     1 - 5 -23.0 -14.0 -10.5
  Dec 05, 2024 285   @ Houston Christian L 79-83 25%     1 - 6 0 - 1 -8.4 +5.6 -14.0
  Dec 07, 2024 263   @ Incarnate Word L 53-65 21%     1 - 7 0 - 2 -14.9 -17.6 +1.5
  Dec 15, 2024 132   South Alabama L 72-81 16%     1 - 8 -9.9 +2.4 -12.7
  Dec 18, 2024 211   Abilene Christian W 68-67 29%     2 - 8 -4.6 -4.8 +0.2
  Dec 21, 2024 189   @ South Florida L 62-88 12%     2 - 9 -24.8 -9.7 -14.5
  Jan 04, 2025 69   McNeese St. L 56-75 7%     2 - 10 0 - 3 -13.6 -13.5 -0.5
  Jan 06, 2025 180   Nicholls St. L 61-83 24%     2 - 11 0 - 4 -25.9 -7.6 -20.5
  Jan 11, 2025 247   @ Northwestern St. L 67-75 19%     2 - 12 0 - 5 -10.0 -4.7 -5.4
  Jan 13, 2025 267   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 55-57 22%     2 - 13 0 - 6 -5.2 -11.8 +6.3
  Jan 18, 2025 354   New Orleans L 73-82 69%     2 - 14 0 - 7 -25.5 -12.6 -12.5
  Jan 20, 2025 218   SE Louisiana L 68-76 30%     2 - 15 0 - 8 -13.9 -7.6 -6.2
  Jan 25, 2025 176   @ Lamar L 58-61 OT 12%     2 - 16 0 - 9 -1.3 -12.4 +11.2
  Jan 27, 2025 282   @ Stephen F. Austin L 72-79 25%     2 - 17 0 - 10 -11.2 +8.3 -20.1
  Feb 01, 2025 247   Northwestern St. W 72-50 35%     3 - 17 1 - 10 +14.6 +1.9 +14.4
  Feb 03, 2025 177   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 66-78 24%     3 - 18 1 - 11 -15.8 -3.4 -13.3
  Feb 08, 2025 180   @ Nicholls St. L 65-81 12%     3 - 19 1 - 12 -14.4 -1.0 -14.8
  Feb 10, 2025 69   @ McNeese St. L 51-67 3%     3 - 20 1 - 13 -5.1 -7.9 +0.0
  Feb 15, 2025 176   Lamar L 55-65 24%     3 - 21 1 - 14 -13.8 -13.3 -1.0
  Feb 17, 2025 282   Stephen F. Austin L 74-76 43%     3 - 22 1 - 15 -11.7 -0.2 -11.4
  Feb 22, 2025 218   @ SE Louisiana L 65-83 15%     3 - 23 1 - 16 -18.4 -4.6 -14.7
  Feb 24, 2025 354   @ New Orleans W 73-71 49%     4 - 23 2 - 16 -9.0 -8.6 -0.4
  Mar 01, 2025 263   Incarnate Word L 68-75 39%     4 - 24 2 - 17 -15.4 -1.2 -15.1
  Mar 03, 2025 285   Houston Christian W 63-59 44%     5 - 24 3 - 17 -5.9 -10.0 +4.3
Projected Record 5 - 26 3 - 17




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 100.0 100.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17 100.0% 100.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 82.5%