Texas A&M - Commerce
Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.0#356
Expected Predictive Rating-10.7#327
Pace67.9#213
Improvement-1.0#249

Offense
Total Offense-7.9#355
First Shot-7.1#349
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#241
Layup/Dunks-3.8#310
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#301
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#130
Freethrows-2.6#321
Improvement-0.4#200

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#328
First Shot-3.8#300
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#278
Layups/Dunks-4.0#322
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#55
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#271
Freethrows+0.5#153
Improvement-0.7#235
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.7% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.7% 7.8% 1.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 51.9% 40.5% 52.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa (Away) - 0.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 46 - 127 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 43   @ Iowa L 64-91 1%    
  Nov 06, 2024 236   @ South Dakota L 75-87 13%    
  Nov 08, 2024 25   @ Texas A&M L 55-87 1%     0 - 1 -14.9 -5.8 -10.4
  Nov 13, 2024 240   Southern W 70-68 29%     1 - 1 -5.4 -4.5 -0.9
  Nov 19, 2024 10   @ Connecticut L 46-81 1%     1 - 2 -15.3 -22.9 +8.6
  Nov 21, 2024 35   @ Oklahoma L 56-84 1%     1 - 3 -12.7 -10.2 -2.8
  Nov 25, 2024 323   @ Stonehill L 65-67 25%     1 - 4 -8.1 -2.5 -5.9
  Nov 30, 2024 160   Purdue Fort Wayne L 57-77 18%     1 - 5 -23.1 -16.3 -8.3
  Dec 05, 2024 346   @ Houston Christian L 79-83 34%     1 - 6 0 - 1 -12.8 +1.6 -14.4
  Dec 07, 2024 300   @ Incarnate Word L 53-65 21%     1 - 7 0 - 2 -16.5 -19.8 +2.1
  Dec 15, 2024 156   South Alabama L 72-81 17%     1 - 8 -11.9 +1.2 -13.4
  Dec 18, 2024 212   Abilene Christian W 68-67 24%     2 - 8 -4.6 -7.6 +2.9
  Dec 21, 2024 169   @ South Florida L 62-88 8%     2 - 9 -23.5 -11.4 -11.6
  Jan 04, 2025 91   McNeese St. L 60-76 6%    
  Jan 06, 2025 238   Nicholls St. L 68-74 30%    
  Jan 11, 2025 290   @ Northwestern St. L 63-72 20%    
  Jan 13, 2025 227   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 69-81 13%    
  Jan 18, 2025 343   New Orleans W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 20, 2025 225   SE Louisiana L 64-70 28%    
  Jan 25, 2025 196   @ Lamar L 61-75 9%    
  Jan 27, 2025 213   @ Stephen F. Austin L 57-70 11%    
  Feb 01, 2025 290   Northwestern St. L 66-69 39%    
  Feb 03, 2025 189   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 67-76 22%    
  Feb 08, 2025 238   @ Nicholls St. L 65-77 15%    
  Feb 10, 2025 91   @ McNeese St. L 57-79 2%    
  Feb 15, 2025 196   Lamar L 64-72 23%    
  Feb 17, 2025 213   Stephen F. Austin L 60-67 26%    
  Feb 22, 2025 225   @ SE Louisiana L 61-73 13%    
  Feb 24, 2025 343   @ New Orleans L 71-75 35%    
  Mar 01, 2025 300   Incarnate Word L 70-72 41%    
  Mar 03, 2025 346   Houston Christian W 69-67 56%    
Projected Record 7 - 24 4 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.7 1.4 0.1 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.7 6.4 2.5 0.3 0.0 17.2 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 5.3 9.1 8.1 3.0 0.4 0.0 27.2 11th
12th 1.5 5.5 10.7 11.4 6.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 38.1 12th
Total 1.5 5.6 11.9 17.0 17.9 16.4 12.7 8.3 4.7 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 20.0% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.1
11-9 0.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
10-10 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0
9-11 2.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.4
8-12 4.7% 4.7
7-13 8.3% 8.3
6-14 12.7% 12.7
5-15 16.4% 16.4
4-16 17.9% 17.9
3-17 17.0% 17.0
2-18 11.9% 11.9
1-19 5.6% 5.6
0-20 1.5% 1.5
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%