The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -15.3 #360
Expected Predictive Rating -21.0 #361
Pace 62.8 #334
Improvement +0.3 #168

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #304 D+ C- D- F C
Defense #365 F D F C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #288 1.07 #284 -3.9 #308
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #227 0.72 #219 -1.2 #232
Three Pointers 48% #59 0.95 #264 +1.7 #124
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #269 -3.3 #267
Freethrows 13.9 #330 67% #312 9.4 #339
Second Chance 28.4% #249 1.04 #183 0.30 #233
Turnovers 19.3% #324
Total Offense -4.9 #304

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #145 1.32 #337 -4.1 #313
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #333 0.89 #337 +1.2 #107
Three Pointers 45% #62 1.16 #339 -5.6 #344
1st FG Attempt 1.19 #361 -8.5 #361
Freethrows 17.5 #196 70% #86 12.3 #188
Second Chance 34.2% #297 1.11 #267 0.38 #305
Turnovers 13.2% #341
Total Defense -10.4 #365

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #187 1.7% #319
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.6% #286 14.8% #358
Possession Length 19.6 #355 16.8 #99
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #322 0.20 #274
Improvement -0.3 #211 +0.6 #148

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.3% 0.8% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 81.6% 69.8% 86.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Home) - 30.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 30 - 80 - 12
Quad 43 - 143 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 151 @Boston College L 47 - 76 5%  -11  0 - 1 -26 -18 F F F -9 C- D+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 225 Charleston Southern L 86 - 96 20%  -0  0 - 2 -17 +8 A+ F C -24 F F F
 Fri, Nov 14 297 @West Georgia L 92 - 100 16%  -8  0 - 3 -13 +9 B+ F A+ -21 F F F
 Mon, Nov 24 280 Bellarmine L 58 - 70 30%  -5  0 - 4 -22 -14 F B- F -10 C- C- F
 Wed, Nov 26 300 Houston Christian L 65 - 72 33%  -6  0 - 5 -18 -2 F C+ C+ -17 F F C+
 Sun, Nov 30 289 Presbyterian L 41 - 69 22%  -19  0 - 6 -35 -22 F D F -21 F F D-
 Thu, Dec 4 125 @Davidson L 63 - 79 4%  -9  0 - 7 -11 -0 B D F -12 C D F
 Sat, Dec 13 72 @South Carolina L 55 - 71 2%  -5  0 - 8 -5 -10 F F B- +4 A+ C C-
 Wed, Dec 17 149 @College of Charleston L 78 - 82 5%  +2  0 - 9 -1 +4 B C F -5 F A+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 115 @Richmond L 56 - 80 3%  -11  0 - 10 -17 -11 C F F -9 F B F
 Tue, Dec 30 128 East Tennessee St. L 49 - 74 10%  -13  0 - 11 0 - 1 -26 -20 F B F -9 D- D C
 Sat, Jan 3 223 Wofford L 86 - 95 20%  -8  0 - 12 0 - 2 -15 +13 A+ A+ F -29 F A C-
 Wed, Jan 7 160 @Mercer L 63 - 101 6%  -21  0 - 13 0 - 3 -35 -5 C A- F -33 F F C+
 Sat, Jan 10 283 Western Carolina L 73 - 78 30% 
 Thu, Jan 15 284 @UNC Greensboro L 69 - 80 14% 
 Sat, Jan 17 332 @VMI L 70 - 78 23% 
 Wed, Jan 21 150 Furman L 65 - 78 12% 
 Sat, Jan 24 128 @East Tennessee St. L 62 - 82 3% 
 Thu, Jan 29 332 VMI L 73 - 75 45% 
 Sat, Jan 31 284 UNC Greensboro L 72 - 77 31% 
 Thu, Feb 5 229 @Samford L 67 - 81 9% 
 Sat, Feb 7 273 @Chattanooga L 66 - 78 14% 
 Wed, Feb 11 283 @Western Carolina L 70 - 81 15% 
 Sat, Feb 14 160 Mercer L 70 - 82 13% 
 Thu, Feb 19 229 Samford L 70 - 78 22% 
 Sat, Feb 21 273 Chattanooga L 69 - 75 30% 
 Wed, Feb 25 150 @Furman L 62 - 81 5% 
 Sat, Feb 28 223 @Wofford L 67 - 82 9% 
Totals 3 - 25 3 - 15 -15 -5 D+ C- D- -10 F D F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 3.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 5.1 7.3 4.3 0.7 0.0 18.7 9th
10th 7.6 17.7 22.2 15.8 6.2 1.0 0.0 70.5 10th
Total 7.6 17.7 23.5 21.0 14.9 8.8 4.1 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.2% 0.2
8-10 0.6% 0.6
7-11 1.6% 1.6
6-12 4.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.1
5-13 8.8% 8.8
4-14 14.9% 14.9
3-15 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 21.0
2-16 23.5% 23.5
1-17 17.7% 17.7
0-18 7.6% 7.6
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 6.7%