UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.5#77
Expected Predictive Rating+10.7#61
Pace71.1#112
Improvement-5.7#360

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#157
First Shot+1.0#144
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#221
Layup/Dunks+2.6#89
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#170
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#271
Freethrows+1.5#92
Improvement-2.3#328

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#22
First Shot+4.5#49
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#29
Layups/Dunks+2.0#97
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#294
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#143
Freethrows+2.5#31
Improvement-3.4#354
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 1.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.0% 45.3% 38.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% 1.4% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.6 11.5 11.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.5% 99.0%
Conference Champion 55.3% 58.3% 49.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
First Round42.7% 45.0% 38.4%
Second Round11.2% 12.6% 8.5%
Sweet Sixteen2.9% 3.2% 2.1%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Away) - 66.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 23 - 3
Quad 311 - 314 - 6
Quad 411 - 126 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 157   @ Loyola Marymount W 66-51 67%     1 - 0 +18.0 -3.2 +21.5
  Nov 10, 2024 99   @ Northern Iowa W 80-60 48%     2 - 0 +27.9 +10.3 +17.8
  Nov 16, 2024 204   Pepperdine W 80-62 87%     3 - 0 +13.1 +5.3 +7.7
  Nov 22, 2024 210   @ Weber St. W 93-87 75%     4 - 0 +6.5 +12.0 -5.9
  Nov 28, 2024 194   Kennesaw St. W 76-59 81%     5 - 0 +15.4 -2.7 +17.0
  Nov 29, 2024 116   Kent St. W 51-39 67%     6 - 0 +14.9 -11.0 +27.3
  Nov 30, 2024 209   Towson W 67-60 82%     7 - 0 +4.6 -1.2 +6.2
  Dec 05, 2024 260   Cal St. Bakersfield W 82-66 92%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +7.7 +6.9 +1.0
  Dec 14, 2024 69   @ Oregon St. L 55-67 37%     8 - 1 -1.1 -12.5 +11.5
  Dec 19, 2024 130   @ Belmont W 92-84 61%     9 - 1 +12.7 +9.7 +2.3
  Dec 21, 2024 163   @ Duquesne L 54-70 67%     9 - 2 -13.2 -6.3 -9.6
  Dec 30, 2024 158   @ California Baptist W 72-68 66%    
  Jan 02, 2025 271   @ Cal Poly W 84-74 84%    
  Jan 04, 2025 177   UC Riverside W 75-64 86%    
  Jan 09, 2025 153   @ Cal St. Northridge W 76-72 66%    
  Jan 11, 2025 90   @ UC San Diego L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 16, 2025 278   Cal St. Fullerton W 75-58 94%    
  Jan 18, 2025 271   Cal Poly W 87-71 93%    
  Jan 23, 2025 177   @ UC Riverside W 72-67 69%    
  Jan 25, 2025 166   Hawaii W 73-62 84%    
  Jan 30, 2025 258   @ Long Beach St. W 73-63 82%    
  Feb 01, 2025 223   UC Davis W 75-61 90%    
  Feb 08, 2025 90   UC San Diego W 71-67 65%    
  Feb 13, 2025 146   UC Santa Barbara W 74-64 82%    
  Feb 16, 2025 166   @ Hawaii W 70-65 67%    
  Feb 20, 2025 153   Cal St. Northridge W 79-69 83%    
  Feb 22, 2025 260   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 72-62 81%    
  Feb 27, 2025 278   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 72-61 84%    
  Mar 01, 2025 258   Long Beach St. W 76-60 92%    
  Mar 06, 2025 223   @ UC Davis W 72-64 77%    
  Mar 08, 2025 146   @ UC Santa Barbara W 71-67 64%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.9 10.7 14.6 13.5 7.7 2.5 55.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.6 6.8 8.8 7.1 3.3 0.6 29.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.2 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 8.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 4.0 6.8 10.7 14.6 17.9 17.9 14.1 7.7 2.5 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.5    2.5
19-1 100.0% 7.7    7.5 0.2
18-2 95.7% 13.5    12.1 1.3 0.0
17-3 81.7% 14.6    11.4 3.2 0.0
16-4 59.5% 10.7    6.8 3.6 0.3 0.0
15-5 33.3% 4.9    2.2 2.1 0.5 0.0
14-6 12.7% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 55.3% 55.3 42.8 11.1 1.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.5% 79.7% 69.9% 9.7% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.5 32.3%
19-1 7.7% 64.0% 61.1% 2.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 3.0 1.0 0.0 2.8 7.6%
18-2 14.1% 56.5% 56.0% 0.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.8 4.0 0.1 6.1 1.1%
17-3 17.9% 50.8% 50.7% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 2.7 6.1 0.3 8.8 0.3%
16-4 17.9% 43.3% 43.3% 0.0% 11.9 1.2 5.9 0.6 0.0 10.2 0.0%
15-5 14.6% 37.2% 37.2% 12.1 0.4 4.1 0.9 0.0 9.2
14-6 10.7% 29.9% 29.9% 12.3 0.1 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.5
13-7 6.8% 22.3% 22.3% 12.4 0.0 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.3
12-8 4.0% 17.6% 17.6% 12.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 3.3
11-9 2.1% 12.4% 12.4% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.9
10-10 1.0% 10.4% 10.4% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
9-11 0.4% 4.4% 4.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
8-12 0.2% 2.5% 2.5% 14.0 0.0 0.2
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 43.0% 42.4% 0.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 11.6 24.6 3.9 0.3 0.0 57.0 1.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 6.9 0.3 1.1 2.4 9.3 16.3 21.3 11.9 9.1 11.4 8.1 7.8 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 46.2% 10.4 0.6 1.2 2.4 2.4 10.1 27.2 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 32.4% 10.6 3.7 6.5 20.4 1.9