UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.8 120
Results Rating +1.5 137
Pace 71.2 112
Improvement +1.0 152

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 259 D+ C C- D+ D+
Defense B+ 34 A- C+ C+ B B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 74 D 53% 298 +0.3 166
2 Pt. Jumpers 56% 30 C 38% 163 +3.1 46
Three Pointers 29% 360 C+ 35% 150 -5.9 342
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 284 C- -1.7 236
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 256
Second Chance C 30.7% 172 C 1.02 191 C 0.31 173
Turnovers C- 17.6% 236
Freethrows C- 0.30 203 D 68% 315 D+ 0.20 250
Total Offense D+ -3.5 259

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 54% 87 C- 11.9% 236
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 38% 34 C+ 4.2% 116
Three Pointers B- 88% 94 D+ 1.2% 279
Total C+ 58% 125 D+ 6.6% 284

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 230 A+ 44% 2 -5.9 24
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 62 C 38% 156 +1.2 287
Three Pointers 38% 253 C+ 33% 130 -1.8 109
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.6 74 A- -5.7 20
1st FG Attempt A- 0.89 25
Second Chance D+ 33.2% 295 B+ 0.91 35 C+ 0.30 156
Turnovers C+ 17.7% 123
Freethrows B 0.25 35 C+ 72% 148 B 0.18 42
Total Defense B+ +6.3 34

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 201 A 20.2% 8
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 34% 314 B- 6.5% 80
Three Pointers D+ 87% 281 D+ 0.5% 270
Total C- 58% 241 A 9.3% 14

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.9 124 17.2 163
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 171 0.17 179
Improvement +2.1 #95 -1.1 #252

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 141 120 103
Results Rating Rank 164 135 90
Conference Record 12 - 8 14 - 6 15 - 5
Conference Finish 4 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27% 32% 22%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 49% 77% 21%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round27% 32% 22%
Second Round2% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Away) - 49.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 37 - 87 - 11
Quad 412 - 120 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 138 California Baptist L 61 - 69 67% -3  38% 0 - 1 D -10 F -14 F D C+ B +4 C+ C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 211 Weber St. W 79 - 70 79% +8  91% 1 - 1 C+ +3 F+ -10 D- D+ C- A+ +12 A+ B+ C+
 Wed, Nov 19 95 @Utah Valley L 72 - 79 28% -6  2% 1 - 2 C+ +2 C+ +2 F B+ A C -0 C C F
 Sat, Nov 22 94 Northern Iowa L 69 - 70 OT 50% -3  15% 1 - 3 C+ +2 D+ -2 D- A A+ B +4 A A D-
 Tue, Nov 25 163 New Mexico St. L 45 - 57 62% -5  4% 1 - 4 D- -12 F -32 F F F A+ +20 A+ D- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 210 South Dakota St. W 64 - 52 70% +7  86% 2 - 4 B +9 F -17 F F F A+ +26 A+ A A
 Sun, Nov 30 218 @San Jose St. W 72 - 63 62% +5  89% 3 - 4 B +9 C- -2 D C B- A +11 A- A+ D+
 Thu, Dec 4 283 UC Riverside W 73 - 60 88% +11  98% 4 - 4 1 - 0 C+ +3 D+ -4 C D C- A- +8 A+ B- F
 Sat, Dec 6 159 Cal St. Northridge W 85 - 71 72% -0  30% 5 - 4 2 - 0 B +11 B+ +9 D+ A+ B- B- +2 B A F
 Fri, Dec 19 67 Belmont L 58 - 84 40% -8  18% 5 - 5 F -21 F -17 F F A D+ -4 D C+ B+
 Sun, Dec 21 129 North Dakota St. W 74 - 73 53% +3  72% 6 - 5 C+ +3 C+ +3 C+ B B C -0 C F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 302 Norfolk St. W 89 - 70 85% +16  97% 7 - 5 B +11 A +13 B- A+ B+ C- -2 C- F B+
 Thu, Jan 1 332 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 81 - 77 85% +6  98% 8 - 5 3 - 0 C- -4 C+ +2 B- A- F D- -6 C- F+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 208 @Cal St. Fullerton W 86 - 64 59% +9  80% 9 - 5 4 - 0 A +22 A +11 A A+ D- A+ +11 A+ D+ D+
 Thu, Jan 8 263 Long Beach St. W 74 - 64 86% +7  75% 10 - 5 5 - 0 C +1 D- -6 F+ F A A- +7 C+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 119 @Hawaii L 66 - 67 38% -2  21% 10 - 6 5 - 1 B- +5 D+ -3 F+ A F A +8 B- A- C+
 Sat, Jan 17 177 @UC Davis L 72 - 75 53% -2  9% 10 - 7 5 - 2 C -1 C- -1 C- C+ D+ C -0 A+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 22 283 @UC Riverside W 80 - 66 74% +10  97% 11 - 7 6 - 2 B +10 C+ +3 C B F B+ +7 A+ D C+
 Sat, Jan 24 134 @UC San Diego W 61 - 59 43% +1  59% 12 - 7 7 - 2 B- +7 F -10 D- D B- A+ +17 A- A+ D-
 Thu, Jan 29 119 Hawaii W 87 - 76 OT 61% +2  67% 13 - 7 8 - 2 B +11 C +0 C+ B D- A +9 A- A+ D+
 Thu, Feb 5 332 Cal St. Bakersfield W 78 - 62 93% +5  68% 14 - 7 9 - 2 C+ +2 D- -8 F+ F A+ A +9 A F+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 141 @UC Santa Barbara L 79 - 84 45% -6  35% 14 - 8 9 - 3 C -1 C +1 C F+ C+ C- -2 D+ D+ B-
 Thu, Feb 12 231 @Cal Poly L 73 - 79 64% +2  48% 14 - 9 9 - 4 D+ -7 F -13 D F F B+ +6 B- F A
 Sat, Feb 14 208 Cal St. Fullerton W 86 - 65 79% +7  67% 15 - 9 10 - 4 A- +15 C+ +3 A+ C+ D A +11 A+ F+ C-
 Thu, Feb 19 263 @Long Beach St. W 69 - 58 70% +7  98% 16 - 9 11 - 4 B +8 F -10 A+ F F A+ +18 A+ F A-
 Sat, Feb 21 134 UC San Diego L 69 - 71 65% -5  8% 16 - 10 11 - 5 C- -3 C+ +2 C B B+ D -6 D+ C- D
 Thu, Feb 26 159 @Cal St. Northridge L 76 - 77 49%
 Sat, Feb 28 141 UC Santa Barbara W 73 - 68 67%
 Thu, Mar 5 231 Cal Poly W 84 - 74 82%
 Sat, Mar 7 177 UC Davis W 75 - 68 74%
Totals 19 - 11 14 - 6 +3 D+ -4 F C- D+ B+ +6 C+ D D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D C C+ C- 43% 56% 29% D+ D+ C C C C- C- D D+ B+ A+ C C+ A- 37% 25% 38% B- A- D+ B+ C+ C+ B C+ B
1.04 53% 38% 35% -2 -1 0.97 31% 1.0 .31 18% .30 68% .20 1.00 44% 38% 33% -6 -1 0.89 33% 0.9 .30 18% .25 72% .21
Nov
7		 California Baptist F F F A+ F+ 40% 36% 25% F+ F D+ F D C+ B+ F D+ B A+ F F+ B- 48% 17% 35% D+ C+ F A C A+ B- B+ B
0.85 33% 26% 46% -10 -2 0.79 23% 0.7 .17 14% .37 57% .21 0.96 32% 56% 39% -7 +1 0.90 48% 0.7 .33 24% .28 67% .18
Nov
15		 Weber St. F+ C+ D- F D 48% 28% 24% D D- C+ F D+ C- A+ D- A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 23% 29% B A+ C- A B+ C+ D+ C+ D+
1.02 64% 31% 27% -2 0 0.98 31% 0.9 .28 17% .59 68% .40 0.90 56% 15% 19% -13 0 0.77 33% 0.8 .24 17% .37 71% .26
Nov
19		 Utah Valley C+ D D+ F F 34% 32% 34% F+ F C- A+ B+ A B- B B C C A+ C+ C+ 71% 10% 18% F C C C C F F A+ C+
1.02 50% 35% 22% -10 -2 0.79 29% 1.3 .39 16% .35 76% .27 1.12 60% 20% 33% -1 +4 1.08 38% 1.1 .41 16% .42 44% .19
Nov
22		 Northern Iowa D+ D F C+ D 44% 38% 18% F D- C A+ A A+ A+ F A B A+ D C A 35% 21% 44% B+ A D A+ A D- A C A-
0.96 50% 26% 33% -8 -2 0.82 25% 1.4 .35 13% .42 62% .26 0.98 41% 46% 33% -5 0 0.92 24% 0.5 .12 11% .16 70% .11
Nov
25		 New Mexico St. F D+ F F F 27% 34% 39% F F F C F F A+ F A+ A+ B+ F A+ A+ 29% 37% 34% A- A+ F C+ D- A+ F B- F
0.64 55% 21% 13% -19 -3 0.59 17% 1.2 .20 26% .56 66% .37 0.82 50% 47% 7% -13 -3 0.71 41% 0.9 .38 30% .55 70% .39
Nov
26		 South Dakota St. F A- F F F 37% 21% 42% C F D+ F F F A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ 43% 21% 36% C A+ A A- A A C- A+ B-
0.86 69% 22% 22% -7 0 0.88 25% 0.6 .16 27% .52 75% .39 0.70 43% 27% 16% -18 0 0.66 21% 0.9 .19 20% .29 59% .17
Nov
30		 San Jose St. C- D- A F D 55% 24% 22% C+ D C- B- C B- D+ F F A A+ A+ F+ A 31% 31% 38% C+ A- F A+ A+ D+ B+ D+ B
1.08 54% 50% 27% -2 +1 1.00 33% 1.3 .42 17% .25 57% .14 0.95 38% 25% 40% -7 -2 0.85 40% 0.5 .21 14% .23 77% .17
Dec
4		 UC Riverside D+ F A A+ C 46% 20% 34% C+ C F A- D C- A+ D- A- A- A+ A+ A A+ 50% 15% 35% F+ A+ D A B- F F B+ F
1.07 35% 50% 53% +1 +1 1.06 21% 1.1 .24 16% .45 65% .30 0.88 35% 25% 28% -17 +2 0.71 31% 0.6 .20 15% .48 68% .33
Dec
6		 Cal St. Northridge B+ F B B+ C- 42% 27% 31% C- D+ A+ A+ A+ B- B F C+ B- A+ A F B+ 48% 19% 33% C B A A A F C+ B B-
1.22 45% 43% 38% -2 -1 0.96 41% 1.9 .76 14% .35 67% .23 1.02 43% 27% 42% -5 +1 0.93 24% 0.8 .19 10% .29 61% .18
Dec
19		 Belmont F F F D+ F 25% 27% 48% D- F F+ F F A C+ F D- D+ A+ F F D 49% 9% 43% D D D+ B+ C+ B+ C F D+
0.83 38% 21% 32% -11 -2 0.77 23% 0.8 .19 13% .28 59% .17 1.21 48% 75% 55% +12 +2 1.30 30% 1.1 .33 22% .31 76% .24
Dec
21		 North Dakota St. C+ B+ B- C- C+ 46% 24% 30% C+ C+ B- B+ B B B- F C- C A- B F C 31% 27% 42% B- C F C- F A+ F A+ B-
1.12 70% 42% 33% +6 0 1.14 33% 1.0 .33 17% .29 63% .18 1.11 50% 33% 42% +1 -1 1.02 51% 1.1 .54 29% .36 47% .17
Dec
22		 Norfolk St. A A A D B 44% 16% 40% C- B- A- A+ A+ B+ D+ A+ B- C- B+ B+ F D 28% 41% 30% A+ C- A F F B+ D F F
1.31 73% 50% 30% +6 +1 1.16 41% 1.3 .55 15% .34 85% .29 1.03 46% 32% 50% +1 -3 0.98 23% 1.9 .43 22% .38 80% .30
Jan
1		 Cal St. Bakersfield C+ D+ D+ A+ A- 29% 47% 24% F B- D A+ A- F A D- B+ D- B+ B F C- 40% 40% 19% B- C- F B+ F+ F B+ D+ B
1.16 54% 38% 64% +10 -4 1.13 32% 1.6 .50 22% .46 68% .31 1.10 48% 30% 45% -4 -2 0.89 47% 0.9 .40 13% .30 78% .23
Jan
3		 Cal St. Fullerton A B+ F A+ A 40% 10% 50% B A A A+ A+ D- B F D+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ 28% 31% 41% A+ A+ D- B- D+ D+ A+ D A
1.24 68% 20% 46% +11 +1 1.27 39% 1.5 .61 22% .35 58% .20 0.92 27% 24% 41% -9 -2 0.80 30% 0.9 .28 14% .20 75% .15
Jan
8		 Long Beach St. D- D+ B- F F+ 46% 32% 22% D F+ D- F F A A B A+ A- A- F+ C C 37% 41% 22% B+ C+ A A+ A+ C+ B+ D+ B
1.04 57% 44% 18% -4 -1 0.92 22% 1.0 .22 13% .45 79% .35 0.90 50% 45% 33% 0 -3 0.96 19% 0.3 .05 18% .22 77% .17
Jan
10		 Hawaii D+ F C+ F F 68% 20% 12% A F+ A+ D A F D A+ C A A F A+ B 48% 13% 38% D+ B- D+ A+ A- C+ A+ B- A+
0.93 41% 40% 17% -14 +2 0.78 44% 0.9 .39 21% .27 80% .21 0.94 48% 71% 25% -6 +2 0.94 33% 0.7 .23 20% .23 69% .16
Jan
17		 UC Davis C- D B B+ C- 46% 28% 26% D C- C- B C+ D+ F A+ C C A A+ C+ A+ 28% 21% 51% B- A+ F+ F F D- F A F
1.05 52% 43% 38% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.1 .32 20% .24 100% .24 1.09 46% 20% 33% -8 -1 0.85 33% 1.2 .41 15% .51 67% .34
Jan
22		 UC Riverside C+ C A+ F C 47% 19% 34% C+ C A+ F B F A+ C+ A+ B+ A+ F A A+ 45% 13% 42% F+ A+ F B- D C+ C+ F D-
1.13 59% 67% 25% +1 +1 1.06 49% 0.8 .37 20% .55 71% .39 0.93 33% 57% 27% -13 +1 0.79 36% 0.8 .29 20% .28 94% .26
Jan
24		 UC San Diego F F+ C D- D 40% 35% 25% F+ D- F B D B- D F F A+ A- C B A- 31% 19% 50% A- A- A A+ A+ D- A+ C+ A+
0.87 45% 37% 29% -8 -2 0.84 20% 1.1 .23 14% .22 54% .12 0.84 50% 36% 31% -5 0 0.91 18% 0.0 .00 13% .15 67% .10
Jan
29		 Hawaii C F+ A+ F C+ 53% 31% 17% C- C+ B+ C B D- A+ D+ A A A+ A+ F A 40% 10% 50% D+ A- A+ A+ A+ D+ A F C+
1.02 45% 61% 20% -3 0 0.95 33% 1.0 .33 19% .42 66% .28 0.90 32% 0% 42% -8 +2 0.89 19% 0.4 .09 18% .27 89% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Cal St. Bakersfield D- C- B F F 57% 20% 23% B F+ B- F F A+ A+ F C+ A A+ C- A+ A 28% 54% 18% A+ A D- D F+ A+ B+ F D+
1.07 56% 45% 15% -6 +1 0.93 40% 0.6 .23 10% .47 58% .27 0.85 29% 37% 22% -12 -5 0.68 37% 1.1 .39 26% .30 94% .28
Feb
7		 UC Santa Barbara C A+ D B+ B 36% 41% 23% F C D F F+ C+ F A+ F+ C- D F A D- 36% 28% 36% A- D+ F B D+ B- F C+ F
1.11 75% 35% 38% +6 -3 1.09 23% 0.9 .19 15% .22 92% .20 1.18 65% 69% 29% +9 -1 1.17 39% 0.9 .36 20% .44 76% .33
Feb
12		 Cal Poly F F F A+ D 34% 22% 44% D D D F F F F+ C- D- B+ C A+ C- C+ 28% 10% 62% B+ B- F F+ F A C B+ B-
0.92 45% 23% 42% -2 0 0.97 28% 0.5 .15 21% .22 71% .16 0.99 57% 0% 35% -3 +1 0.98 39% 1.1 .43 26% .31 72% .22
Feb
14		 Cal St. Fullerton C+ B- A+ A+ A+ 31% 27% 42% F+ A+ C- B C+ D F F F A A+ F A+ A+ 22% 31% 47% A+ A+ B+ F F+ C- A+ A+ A+
1.17 65% 73% 43% +18 -1 1.35 28% 1.1 .32 20% .17 60% .10 0.88 15% 56% 26% -10 -2 0.78 20% 1.7 .34 15% .14 56% .08
Feb
19		 Long Beach St. F B- A+ A+ A+ 55% 23% 23% B- A+ C- F F F A+ F A A+ A+ A A+ A+ 36% 36% 28% B- A+ F F F A- D+ F D-
0.94 64% 67% 44% +13 +1 1.30 27% 0.3 .08 30% .50 65% .33 0.79 37% 26% 7% -23 -2 0.51 33% 1.3 .42 22% .29 82% .24
Feb
21		 UC San Diego C+ F D A+ C 47% 23% 30% C+ C B+ C- B B+ F C+ F D D+ A+ F D- 33% 25% 42% A+ D+ F A C- D A- F C+
1.09 44% 33% 44% -3 0 0.96 36% 1.0 .36 13% .13 71% .09 1.12 63% 25% 45% +5 -1 1.10 33% 0.8 .27 14% .20 82% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.8 24.6 21.3 48.7 1st
2nd 0.2 11.9 14.4 26.5 2nd
3rd 2.8 13.2 1.9 17.9 3rd
4th 0.0 4.8 4.9 4th
5th 0.3 1.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.5 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.2 0.2 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 1.0 8.9 27.9 40.9 21.3 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 21.3    15.8 5.6
14-6 60.1% 24.6    5.5 12.4 6.7
13-7 10.0% 2.8    0.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 48.7% 48.7 21.3 18.2 7.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 21.3% 37.9% 37.9% 12.8 0.0 2.3 5.0 0.9 0.0 13.2
14-6 40.9% 31.4% 31.4% 13.3 1.0 7.7 4.0 0.1 28.1
13-7 27.9% 19.2% 19.2% 13.5 0.2 2.6 2.4 0.3 22.5
12-8 8.9% 11.4% 11.4% 13.8 0.3 0.6 0.1 7.9
11-9 1.0% 6.3% 6.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 27.4% 27.4% 0.0% 13.2 72.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.1% 100.0% 12.8 0.1 27.9 61.4 10.5 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.7%
Lose Out 0.4%