UC San Diego
Big West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#65
Expected Predictive Rating+7.8#73
Pace65.6#249
Improvement+3.1#57

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#78
First Shot+5.9#42
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#314
Layup/Dunks+1.1#139
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#363
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.2#15
Freethrows+2.2#60
Improvement+1.1#125

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#58
First Shot+1.5#128
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#5
Layups/Dunks+5.9#25
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#156
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#351
Freethrows+0.9#117
Improvement+2.1#80
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.7% 43.1% 39.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.5 11.4 11.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 37.9% 38.1% 36.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round42.6% 42.9% 39.6%
Second Round10.3% 10.4% 9.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.4% 2.3% 2.8%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Away) - 90.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 2
Quad 22 - 23 - 3
Quad 39 - 211 - 6
Quad 414 - 125 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 52   @ San Diego St. L 58-63 33%     0 - 1 +7.7 -1.4 +8.8
  Nov 09, 2024 217   Pepperdine W 94-76 90%     1 - 1 +12.4 +16.1 -4.3
  Nov 12, 2024 337   Sacramento St. W 64-54 97%     2 - 1 -4.0 -5.9 +3.2
  Nov 16, 2024 162   Seattle L 71-84 84%     2 - 2 -15.3 +3.6 -19.9
  Nov 21, 2024 193   La Salle W 72-67 82%     3 - 2 +3.5 -2.6 +6.0
  Nov 22, 2024 137   James Madison W 73-67 74%     4 - 2 +7.4 +10.2 -2.0
  Nov 23, 2024 201   Toledo W 80-45 83%     5 - 2 +33.0 +4.7 +29.6
  Dec 05, 2024 158   @ UC Santa Barbara W 84-76 70%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +10.9 +14.5 -3.4
  Dec 07, 2024 258   Cal St. Bakersfield W 81-60 93%     7 - 2 2 - 0 +13.0 +3.7 +9.4
  Dec 15, 2024 249   @ Idaho W 80-56 85%     8 - 2 +21.3 +5.5 +16.9
  Dec 17, 2024 49   @ Utah St. W 75-73 33%     9 - 2 +14.7 +4.5 +10.2
  Dec 21, 2024 311   @ San Diego W 79-65 90%    
  Jan 04, 2025 317   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 90-51 91%     10 - 2 3 - 0 +32.3 +18.1 +15.5
  Jan 09, 2025 276   Cal Poly W 95-68 94%     11 - 2 4 - 0 +18.1 +18.2 +0.4
  Jan 11, 2025 67   UC Irvine L 52-60 60%     11 - 3 4 - 1 -2.5 -7.3 +3.8
  Jan 16, 2025 305   @ Long Beach St. W 80-54 90%     12 - 3 5 - 1 +20.3 +14.1 +9.8
  Jan 18, 2025 163   @ UC Riverside L 81-85 70%     12 - 4 5 - 2 -1.3 +7.6 -8.8
  Jan 23, 2025 158   UC Santa Barbara W 77-63 83%     13 - 4 6 - 2 +11.9 +4.6 +7.8
  Jan 25, 2025 127   Cal St. Northridge W 79-54 79%     14 - 4 7 - 2 +24.6 +3.8 +19.8
  Jan 30, 2025 180   @ Hawaii W 74-63 74%     15 - 4 8 - 2 +12.6 +9.1 +4.4
  Feb 06, 2025 163   UC Riverside W 75-64 85%    
  Feb 08, 2025 67   @ UC Irvine L 67-69 40%    
  Feb 13, 2025 258   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 75-64 85%    
  Feb 15, 2025 216   UC Davis W 73-59 91%    
  Feb 20, 2025 276   @ Cal Poly W 84-72 86%    
  Feb 22, 2025 180   Hawaii W 74-62 87%    
  Feb 27, 2025 127   @ Cal St. Northridge W 77-73 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 317   Cal St. Fullerton W 79-59 97%    
  Mar 06, 2025 305   Long Beach St. W 78-59 97%    
  Mar 08, 2025 216   @ UC Davis W 71-62 78%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 8.0 17.9 10.7 37.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.9 15.7 23.1 11.1 55.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.3 2.8 1.4 0.1 5.7 3rd
4th 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.5 2.3 7.8 18.5 31.2 29.0 10.7 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 10.7    8.8 1.9
17-3 61.7% 17.9    9.1 8.8 0.0
16-4 25.8% 8.0    2.8 4.9 0.4
15-5 6.9% 1.3    0.2 0.8 0.3
14-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 37.9% 37.9 20.8 16.4 0.7 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 10.7% 56.9% 54.9% 2.0% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.4 0.3 4.6 4.4%
17-3 29.0% 47.5% 47.0% 0.5% 11.4 0.2 8.1 5.5 0.1 15.2 0.9%
16-4 31.2% 43.7% 43.7% 11.7 0.0 4.4 8.9 0.2 17.5
15-5 18.5% 36.0% 36.0% 11.9 1.1 5.1 0.4 11.8
14-6 7.8% 26.7% 26.7% 12.1 0.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.8
13-7 2.3% 20.3% 20.3% 12.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.9
12-8 0.5% 9.4% 9.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 42.7% 42.4% 0.4% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.7 17.2 21.9 1.1 0.0 57.3 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.4% 100.0% 10.3 0.2 0.9 0.9 4.4 10.6 26.3 53.1 3.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.9% 4.5% 11.0 0.3 3.8 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6% 4.5% 11.0 4.5