UC San Diego
Big West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.4 #108
Expected Predictive Rating +7.0 #80
Pace 67.6 #230
Improvement -3.4 #335

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #96 B+ C B+ D A-
Defense #126 C+ C C B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #92 1.21 #115 +3.1 #86
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #334 0.82 #90 -2.7 #312
Three Pointers 46% #85 1.08 #94 +4.2 #54
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #63 +4.6 #63
Freethrows 15.2 #292 70% #262 10.7 #294
Second Chance 28.8% #243 1.11 #108 0.32 #173
Turnovers 14.5% #57
Total Offense +3.2 #96

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #296 1.12 #128 +3.2 #75
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #242 0.78 #217 +0.6 #154
Three Pointers 48% #34 0.96 #123 -2.2 #271
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #126 +1.7 #125
Freethrows 14.7 #53 68% #30 10.0 #332
Second Chance 30.4% #160 1.09 #240 0.33 #205
Turnovers 16.3% #196
Total Defense +1.2 #126

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.7% #31 0.0% #164
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.1% #82 -3.2% #120
Possession Length 16.6 #115 17.9 #291
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #107 0.18 #212
Improvement -1.9 #296 -1.4 #267

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.0% 28.2% 20.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.4 12.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.0% 97.2% 95.8%
Conference Champion 23.2% 24.2% 18.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round27.0% 28.2% 20.8%
Second Round3.5% 3.7% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Home) - 83.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 22 - 2
Quad 310 - 312 - 5
Quad 412 - 324 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 300 Houston Christian W 78 - 60 91%  +13  1 - 0 +7 -1 B F D+ +8 C B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 157 @Fresno St. W 78 - 73 56%  +4  2 - 0 +8 +8 A B+ F +0 C- B+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 195 Idaho W 75 - 67 82%  -3  3 - 0 +3 -2 C D- C- +4 A+ C+ C-
 Mon, Nov 24 143 Temple W 91 - 76 63%  +9  4 - 0 +16 +18 A+ F A+ -2 A+ F D-
 Tue, Nov 25 116 Bradley W 87 - 77 53%  +3  5 - 0 +14 +17 C+ A+ A+ -3 B F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 175 Towson W 87 - 73 71%  +13  6 - 0 +13 +23 A+ C A+ -9 C+ D D-
 Tue, Dec 2 90 @Nevada L 70 - 76 31%  -4  6 - 1 +3 +7 F A+ A+ -5 D- C- C
 Sat, Dec 6 262 @Long Beach St. W 80 - 74 76%  +4  7 - 1 1 - 0 +3 +8 A+ F B- -5 D B+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 176 Tulane W 93 - 67 71%  +16  8 - 1 +25 +9 B+ D B +13 A B+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 122 @Loyola Marymount W 67 - 57 46%  +3  9 - 1 +15 -2 B+ C F +17 B+ A+ A+
 Fri, Dec 19 222 San Diego W 82 - 71 83%  -7 
 Thu, Jan 1 253 @Cal Poly L 65 - 67 74%  +2  9 - 2 1 - 1 -4 -5 F B+ D+ +1 A+ D F
 Sat, Jan 3 98 Hawaii W 83 - 73 58%  +7  10 - 2 2 - 1 +12 +18 A+ A+ A+ -6 C+ D+ D-
 Thu, Jan 8 232 Cal St. Fullerton L 71 - 88 85%  -4  10 - 3 2 - 2 -24 -5 F A F -19 F D F
 Sat, Jan 10 295 @UC Riverside W 78 - 69 80% 
 Thu, Jan 15 211 Cal St. Northridge W 85 - 75 83% 
 Sat, Jan 17 294 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 79 - 70 79% 
 Thu, Jan 22 171 @UC Davis W 77 - 75 59% 
 Sat, Jan 24 121 UC Irvine W 74 - 69 68% 
 Thu, Jan 29 181 UC Santa Barbara W 79 - 70 79% 
 Sat, Jan 31 211 @Cal St. Northridge W 82 - 78 65% 
 Thu, Feb 5 262 Long Beach St. W 80 - 67 89% 
 Sun, Feb 8 98 @Hawaii L 69 - 73 36% 
 Thu, Feb 12 171 UC Davis W 80 - 72 78% 
 Sat, Feb 14 295 UC Riverside W 81 - 66 91% 
 Sat, Feb 21 121 @UC Irvine L 71 - 72 46% 
 Thu, Feb 26 294 Cal St. Bakersfield W 82 - 67 91% 
 Sat, Feb 28 253 Cal Poly W 88 - 75 87% 
 Thu, Mar 5 232 @Cal St. Fullerton W 84 - 79 68% 
 Sat, Mar 7 181 @UC Santa Barbara W 76 - 73 61% 
Totals 22 - 8 14 - 6 +4 +3 B+ C B+ +1 C+ C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.4 6.2 7.9 5.0 1.3 23.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 5.4 10.3 9.1 3.8 0.5 30.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 5.9 9.6 6.3 1.7 0.1 25.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.8 4.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 4.3 7.9 12.6 17.4 19.3 17.0 11.8 5.5 1.3 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 1.3    1.2 0.1
17-3 91.5% 5.0    4.0 0.9 0.0
16-4 66.7% 7.9    4.7 2.9 0.3
15-5 36.5% 6.2    2.5 3.0 0.8 0.0
14-6 12.6% 2.4    0.5 1.1 0.6 0.1
13-7 2.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 23.2% 23.2 13.0 8.1 1.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 1.3% 57.9% 57.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5
17-3 5.5% 51.5% 51.5% 11.8 0.8 1.8 0.2 2.6
16-4 11.8% 41.3% 41.3% 12.1 0.4 3.4 1.1 0.0 6.9
15-5 17.0% 36.5% 36.5% 12.4 0.1 3.6 2.3 0.2 10.8
14-6 19.3% 27.3% 27.3% 12.7 0.0 2.3 2.6 0.4 14.0
13-7 17.4% 21.8% 21.8% 12.9 0.0 1.1 2.1 0.6 13.6
12-8 12.6% 16.7% 16.7% 13.1 0.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 10.5
11-9 7.9% 9.9% 9.9% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 7.1
10-10 4.3% 6.7% 6.7% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.0
9-11 1.9% 5.1% 5.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8
8-12 0.8% 2.6% 2.6% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.7
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 27.0% 27.0% 0.0% 12.5 73.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 10.9 0.7 0.7 6.6 7.4 72.8 11.0 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%