UC San Diego
Big West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.3 #138
Expected Predictive Rating +1.6 #138
Pace 67.2 #226
Improvement -8.3 #365

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #178 C+ D+ B- D B
Defense #117 B- C C- B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #79 1.19 #130 +2.8 #87
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #322 0.72 #237 -3.1 #324
Three Pointers 45% #110 1.03 #159 +2.2 #102
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #118 +2.0 #118
Freethrows 0.26 #305 68% #322 0.18 #330
Second Chance 27.4% #276 1.00 #215 0.27 #265
Turnovers 15.3% #100
Total Offense -0.4 #178

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #301 1.05 #58 +4.3 #52
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #212 0.77 #204 +0.3 #158
Three Pointers 46% #45 0.96 #95 -1.4 #248
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #74 +3.2 #75
Freethrows 0.26 #67 69% #33 0.18 #48
Second Chance 30.0% #152 1.06 #231 0.32 #188
Turnovers 16.1% #217
Total Defense +1.8 #117

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #34 -0.3% #137
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.5% #147 -6.0% #67
Possession Length 16.4 #90 18.1 #309
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #130 0.16 #148
Improvement -9.4 #365 +1.1 #115

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.8% 9.5% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.2 13.5
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 81.3% 86.6% 56.8%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round8.8% 9.5% 5.6%
Second Round0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Home) - 82.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 39 - 511 - 8
Quad 49 - 520 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 297 Houston Christian W 78 - 60 87% +13  1 - 0 +7 -2 C+ D- C +9 C+ A- A
 Wed, Nov 12 146 @Fresno St. W 78 - 73 40% +4  2 - 0 +9 +9 A+ B- F -0 C+ C+ C+
 Sat, Nov 15 185 Idaho W 75 - 67 72% -3  3 - 0 +3 -1 C+ D C +4 A C C
 Mon, Nov 24 143 Temple W 91 - 76 51% +9  4 - 0 +16 +19 A+ F A+ -3 B+ F D-
 Tue, Nov 25 121 Bradley W 87 - 77 45% +3  5 - 0 +13 +15 C A+ A+ -2 B- F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 155 Towson W 87 - 73 55% +13  6 - 0 +14 +24 A+ C+ A+ -9 C+ D+ D
 Tue, Dec 2 71 @Nevada L 70 - 76 18% -4  6 - 1 +5 +8 D- B+ A+ -3 C- D C
 Sat, Dec 6 255 @Long Beach St. W 80 - 74 64% +4  7 - 1 1 - 0 +4 +8 A F C+ -5 D+ B D-
 Sat, Dec 13 171 Tulane W 93 - 67 59% +16  8 - 1 +25 +10 B+ D+ B +13 A B+ A
 Tue, Dec 16 170 @Loyola Marymount W 67 - 57 47% +3  9 - 1 +12 -3 B- C F +15 B- A+ A+
 Fri, Dec 19 202 San Diego L 80 - 82 75% -7  9 - 2 -8 +12 B- C A+ -20 C F D
 Thu, Jan 1 263 @Cal Poly L 65 - 67 66% +2  9 - 3 1 - 1 -5 -7 F B C- +2 A D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 102 Hawaii W 83 - 73 48% +7  10 - 3 2 - 1 +12 +17 A- A- A+ -5 B- D- D
 Thu, Jan 8 224 Cal St. Fullerton L 71 - 88 77% -4  10 - 4 2 - 2 -23 -4 F+ A- F -20 F D F
 Sat, Jan 10 291 @UC Riverside W 69 - 66 71% -1  11 - 4 3 - 2 -2 +0 C+ C- D- -2 A- F C+
 Thu, Jan 15 187 Cal St. Northridge L 79 - 84 73% -2  11 - 5 3 - 3 -10 +1 D- C+ A+ -11 B F F
 Sat, Jan 17 319 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 83 - 62 78% +13  12 - 5 4 - 3 +14 +6 C- D A+ +8 B- A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 22 189 @UC Davis W 80 - 74 51% +1  13 - 5 5 - 3 +7 +3 B D- D- +4 A B D
 Sat, Jan 24 118 UC Irvine L 59 - 61 55% -1  13 - 6 5 - 4 -2 -9 C+ F A +7 B+ A D-
 Thu, Jan 29 130 UC Santa Barbara L 48 - 62 60% -9  13 - 7 5 - 5 -15 -24 D F F +8 A+ B+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 187 @Cal St. Northridge L 64 - 81 51% -7  13 - 8 5 - 6 -16 -12 F D C+ -2 C F+ B+
 Thu, Feb 5 255 Long Beach St. W 77 - 67 82%
 Sun, Feb 8 102 @Hawaii L 68 - 74 27%
 Thu, Feb 12 189 UC Davis W 77 - 71 72%
 Sat, Feb 14 291 UC Riverside W 77 - 65 87%
 Sat, Feb 21 118 @UC Irvine L 66 - 71 33%
 Thu, Feb 26 319 Cal St. Bakersfield W 81 - 67 91%
 Sat, Feb 28 263 Cal Poly W 86 - 76 82%
 Thu, Mar 5 224 @Cal St. Fullerton W 78 - 76 57%
 Sat, Mar 7 130 @UC Santa Barbara L 69 - 73 37%
Totals 19 - 11 11 - 9 +1 +0 C+ D+ B- +2 B- C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1st
2nd 0.2 1.6 0.6 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 5.5 4.5 0.3 11.5 3rd
4th 0.1 3.3 13.5 11.5 1.4 0.0 29.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 10.4 11.1 2.1 0.0 25.1 5th
6th 0.4 5.7 9.5 2.5 0.1 18.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 4.9 1.8 0.0 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.0 0.0 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.3 13.1 25.0 28.3 19.4 7.5 1.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 21.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 1.1% 30.5% 30.5% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.7
13-7 7.5% 19.4% 19.4% 12.7 0.5 0.9 0.1 6.1
12-8 19.4% 12.7% 12.7% 13.1 0.4 1.5 0.6 0.0 17.0
11-9 28.3% 8.9% 8.9% 13.3 0.2 1.4 0.8 0.1 25.8
10-10 25.0% 6.0% 6.0% 13.7 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 23.5
9-11 13.1% 3.5% 3.5% 14.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 12.7
8-12 4.3% 1.0% 1.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3
7-13 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 1.1
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 13.2 91.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.1 4.6 81.5 13.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%