UC San Diego
Big West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.4#46
Expected Predictive Rating+10.9#50
Pace65.3#260
Improvement+4.1#30

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#64
First Shot+7.3#29
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#309
Layup/Dunks+1.6#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#363
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.9#6
Freethrows+2.5#46
Improvement+2.1#88

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#42
First Shot+3.0#76
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#5
Layups/Dunks+6.1#25
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#133
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#340
Freethrows+1.2#101
Improvement+2.0#86
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.2% 61.3% 58.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.3% 10.5% 7.1%
Average Seed 11.1 11.1 11.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.1% 4.2% 2.9%
First Round59.1% 59.2% 57.5%
Second Round19.1% 19.2% 16.6%
Sweet Sixteen5.2% 5.3% 4.9%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Away) - 94.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 01 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 1
Quad 22 - 24 - 3
Quad 39 - 112 - 4
Quad 415 - 027 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 54   @ San Diego St. L 58-63 42%     0 - 1 +8.6 -1.6 +9.9
  Nov 09, 2024 214   Pepperdine W 94-76 94%     1 - 1 +12.3 +14.0 -2.3
  Nov 12, 2024 336   Sacramento St. W 64-54 98%     2 - 1 -4.3 -6.5 +3.5
  Nov 16, 2024 146   Seattle L 71-84 89%     2 - 2 -14.8 +5.5 -21.4
  Nov 21, 2024 216   La Salle W 72-67 90%     3 - 2 +2.0 -3.6 +5.4
  Nov 22, 2024 166   James Madison W 73-67 86%     4 - 2 +5.6 +7.5 -1.1
  Nov 23, 2024 248   Toledo W 80-45 93%     5 - 2 +30.3 +2.3 +29.2
  Dec 05, 2024 153   @ UC Santa Barbara W 84-76 78%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +11.2 +14.1 -2.7
  Dec 07, 2024 245   Cal St. Bakersfield W 81-60 95%     7 - 2 2 - 0 +13.7 +3.6 +10.3
  Dec 15, 2024 269   @ Idaho W 80-56 91%     8 - 2 +20.7 +5.6 +16.1
  Dec 17, 2024 55   @ Utah St. W 75-73 42%     9 - 2 +15.5 +2.1 +13.3
  Dec 21, 2024 312   @ San Diego W 82-64 95%    
  Jan 04, 2025 351   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 90-51 97%     10 - 2 3 - 0 +28.5 +17.7 +12.1
  Jan 09, 2025 186   Cal Poly W 95-68 92%     11 - 2 4 - 0 +22.8 +20.2 +3.1
  Jan 11, 2025 73   UC Irvine L 52-60 73%     11 - 3 4 - 1 -2.9 -8.0 +4.1
  Jan 16, 2025 292   @ Long Beach St. W 80-54 93%     12 - 3 5 - 1 +21.1 +15.4 +9.4
  Jan 18, 2025 143   @ UC Riverside L 81-85 77%     12 - 4 5 - 2 -0.2 +7.0 -7.1
  Jan 23, 2025 153   UC Santa Barbara W 77-63 89%     13 - 4 6 - 2 +11.7 +3.9 +8.2
  Jan 25, 2025 115   Cal St. Northridge W 79-54 84%     14 - 4 7 - 2 +25.7 +3.2 +21.5
  Jan 30, 2025 221   @ Hawaii W 74-63 87%     15 - 4 8 - 2 +10.5 +8.5 +3.0
  Feb 06, 2025 143   UC Riverside W 91-71 89%     16 - 4 9 - 2 +18.3 +15.8 +2.5
  Feb 08, 2025 73   @ UC Irvine W 85-67 53%     17 - 4 10 - 2 +28.6 +22.2 +6.7
  Feb 13, 2025 245   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 73-54 89%     18 - 4 11 - 2 +17.2 +13.5 +7.9
  Feb 15, 2025 238   UC Davis W 85-60 95%     19 - 4 12 - 2 +17.9 +18.4 +1.2
  Feb 20, 2025 186   @ Cal Poly W 81-67 83%     20 - 4 13 - 2 +15.3 +7.3 +8.0
  Feb 22, 2025 221   Hawaii W 83-44 94%     21 - 4 14 - 2 +33.0 +16.4 +20.5
  Feb 27, 2025 115   @ Cal St. Northridge W 77-71 69%     22 - 4 15 - 2 +12.2 +5.6 +6.5
  Mar 01, 2025 351   Cal St. Fullerton W 100-55 99%     23 - 4 16 - 2 +29.0 +18.6 +8.9
  Mar 06, 2025 292   Long Beach St. W 70-63 97%     24 - 4 17 - 2 -3.4 -2.9 +0.1
  Mar 08, 2025 238   @ UC Davis W 68-57 88%     25 - 4 18 - 2 +9.4 +7.8 +3.1
Projected Record 26 - 4 18 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 100.0    100.0
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 61.2% 56.7% 4.5% 11.1 0.1 0.9 5.5 40.9 13.9 38.8 10.3%
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 61.2% 56.7% 4.5% 11.1 0.1 0.9 5.5 40.9 13.9 38.8 10.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 53.9% 100.0% 11.1 0.2 1.6 9.3 66.2 22.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 24.2% 11.0% 11.1 0.9 8.6 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 16.9% 9.9% 11.2 0.1 0.4 7.5 2.0