UC San Diego
Big West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +1.7 134
Results Rating +2.7 121
Pace 68.3 186
Improvement -6.1 356

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 200 C+ D+ C+ D B
Defense B- 94 B- C+ C- B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 95 C+ 60% 119 +2.6 88
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 302 D+ 36% 254 -3.0 321
Three Pointers 45% 102 C+ 35% 140 +2.4 93
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.1 44 C+ +0.9 137
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.06 111
Second Chance D+ 26.4% 298 C- 0.99 233 D+ 0.26 290
Turnovers C+ 16.3% 150
Freethrows D 0.27 306 D 68% 302 D 0.18 323
Total Offense C- -1.2 200

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 42% 291 C 11.4% 205
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 132 C- 6.2% 258
Three Pointers B 89% 69 C 0.9% 182
Total C 56% 158 C- 6.0% 222

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 282 B 54% 69 -3.6 67
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 232 C+ 37% 137 -0.9 120
Three Pointers 46% 41 B- 32% 90 +1.2 239
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 165 B -3.1 64
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 78
Second Chance C+ 29.0% 119 C 1.04 198 C+ 0.30 146
Turnovers C- 15.9% 232
Freethrows B 0.26 49 B 70% 51 B 0.18 43
Total Defense B- +2.9 94

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 56% 324 C- 9.3% 239
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 32% 307 D+ 2.9% 303
Three Pointers C+ 82% 127 D+ 0.4% 287
Total D 61% 306 D 4.0% 310

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.6 102 17.9 278
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 120 0.19 239
Improvement -8.9 #365 +2.8 #51

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 160 136 114
Results Rating Rank 155 129 102
Conference Record 10 - 10 12 - 8 13 - 7
Conference Finish 7 4 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11% 11% 8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.1 13.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 99% 100% 92%
Conference Champion 1% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round11% 11% 8%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Home) - 93.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 22 - 2
Quad 39 - 511 - 8
Quad 410 - 321 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 298 Houston Christian W 78 - 60 88% +13  76% 1 - 0 B- +7 C- -2 B- D- C A +9 C- A- A
 Wed, Nov 12 132 @Fresno St. W 78 - 73 38% +4  74% 2 - 0 B +10 B- +5 A B- F B +4 C+ B B
 Sat, Nov 15 187 Idaho W 75 - 67 73% -3  25% 3 - 0 C+ +3 D+ -3 C+ D- C- B+ +6 A C- C-
 Mon, Nov 24 156 Temple W 91 - 76 57% +9  88% 4 - 0 A- +15 A+ +16 A+ F A+ C -1 B+ F D-
 Tue, Nov 25 112 Bradley W 87 - 77 44% +3  68% 5 - 0 B+ +13 A +13 C+ A A+ C -0 B- F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 170 Towson W 87 - 73 59% +13  96% 6 - 0 B+ +13 A+ +22 A+ C+ A D- -7 C+ D+ D-
 Tue, Dec 2 78 @Nevada L 70 - 76 20% -4  7% 6 - 1 C+ +5 B- +5 F+ B+ A+ C -1 D+ D C-
 Sat, Dec 6 263 @Long Beach St. W 80 - 74 67% +4  75% 7 - 1 1 - 0 C+ +3 B +7 A F B- D+ -3 D B F
 Sat, Dec 13 162 Tulane W 93 - 67 58% +16  90% 8 - 1 A+ +26 B+ +8 A- C- B A+ +15 A B+ A
 Tue, Dec 16 148 @Loyola Marymount W 67 - 57 43% +3  65% 9 - 1 B+ +14 D -6 B- C F A+ +19 B A+ A+
 Fri, Dec 19 226 San Diego L 80 - 82 79% -7  6% 9 - 2 D -9 B+ +8 C+ C+ A F -17 C F D+
 Thu, Jan 1 231 @Cal Poly L 65 - 67 60% +2  77% 9 - 3 1 - 1 C- -3 F+ -8 F B C B+ +5 A D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 119 Hawaii W 83 - 73 57% +7  72% 10 - 3 2 - 1 B +10 A+ +15 B+ A A D+ -4 C+ D- D-
 Thu, Jan 8 208 Cal St. Fullerton L 71 - 88 76% -4  45% 10 - 4 2 - 2 F -23 D- -7 F A F F -16 F D F
 Sat, Jan 10 283 @UC Riverside W 69 - 66 70% -1  41% 11 - 4 3 - 2 C -1 C- -1 B- C- F+ C+ +1 A- F C+
 Thu, Jan 15 159 Cal St. Northridge L 79 - 84 68% -2  22% 11 - 5 3 - 3 D -8 C -0 D- B- A+ D- -8 B F F
 Sat, Jan 17 332 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 83 - 62 83% +13  89% 12 - 5 4 - 3 B+ +13 C+ +3 D+ D+ A+ A +10 C+ A+ B
 Thu, Jan 22 177 @UC Davis W 80 - 74 49% +1  58% 13 - 5 5 - 3 B- +8 C +1 B+ D- D B+ +6 A B- D-
 Sat, Jan 24 120 UC Irvine L 59 - 61 57% -1  26% 13 - 6 5 - 4 C- -2 F -12 C+ F A A +10 A- A- D-
 Thu, Jan 29 141 UC Santa Barbara L 48 - 62 64% -9  4% 13 - 7 5 - 5 F+ -16 F -28 D- F F A+ +11 A+ A- C
 Sat, Jan 31 159 @Cal St. Northridge L 64 - 81 45% -7  10% 13 - 8 5 - 6 D- -14 F -14 F D B- C+ +1 C- D- A-
 Thu, Feb 5 263 Long Beach St. W 77 - 74 84% -1  32% 14 - 8 6 - 6 D+ -6 D- -7 C- C F C+ +1 D+ A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 7 119 @Hawaii L 67 - 72 34% -4  22% 14 - 9 6 - 7 C +1 D -5 C+ F B- B+ +6 B B C
 Thu, Feb 12 177 UC Davis W 68 - 51 71% +11  80% 15 - 9 7 - 7 B+ +13 F+ -9 A F F A+ +22 A A+ C+
 Sat, Feb 14 283 UC Riverside W 72 - 66 86% +5  87% 16 - 9 8 - 7 C- -4 D- -8 D- F+ C+ B +4 A B F+
 Sat, Feb 21 120 @UC Irvine W 71 - 69 35% +5  89% 17 - 9 9 - 7 B- +8 A- +11 A+ C- A- C- -3 C D F
 Thu, Feb 26 332 Cal St. Bakersfield W 82 - 66 93%
 Sat, Feb 28 231 Cal Poly W 84 - 75 78%
 Thu, Mar 5 208 @Cal St. Fullerton W 78 - 77 55%
 Sat, Mar 7 141 @UC Santa Barbara L 71 - 73 41%
Totals 20 - 10 12 - 8 +2 C- -1 C C+ B B- +3 C+ D D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C+ D+ C+ C+ 42% 27% 45% B C+ D+ C- D+ C+ D D D B- B C+ B- B 35% 19% 46% C B- C+ C C+ C- B B B
1.07 60% 36% 35% +1 +1 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 16% .27 68% .18 1.04 54% 37% 32% -3 0 0.96 29% 1.0 .30 16% .26 70% .18
Nov
8		 Houston Christian C- B C A B 36% 16% 48% C- B- D- D D- C D- B D A D- A- C+ C- 34% 22% 44% C+ C- A+ C+ A- A C+ A+ A+
1.12 67% 38% 42% +9 0 1.20 27% 1.0 .27 17% .23 77% .17 0.86 65% 27% 32% -2 0 0.98 19% 0.9 .16 23% .26 36% .09
Nov
12		 Fresno St. B- A+ A+ C- A 27% 10% 63% B- A B+ D+ B- F C- F F B A- D- C- B- 41% 18% 41% C C+ D- A+ B B F+ C- F+
1.10 86% 60% 30% +6 +1 1.15 34% 1.0 .34 25% .24 46% .11 1.03 50% 44% 35% -2 0 1.00 35% 0.7 .24 20% .37 76% .28
Nov
15		 Idaho D+ B+ F D- C 50% 15% 35% A+ C+ F A+ D- C- A+ B+ A+ B+ A+ B+ C- A 24% 14% 62% B- A B- D- C- C- D- B- D+
1.07 67% 29% 29% 0 +2 1.06 13% 1.5 .19 16% .48 79% .37 0.96 25% 29% 35% -8 0 0.86 26% 1.1 .29 16% .34 70% .24
Nov
24		 Temple A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 18% 44% C+ A+ F F F A+ C+ F F C C- A- A+ A- 38% 19% 43% D+ B+ B- F F D- D- B- D
1.33 76% 70% 50% +23 0 1.49 7% 0.5 .04 7% .32 45% .14 1.11 60% 30% 26% -6 0 0.91 26% 1.5 .39 10% .42 73% .31
Nov
25		 Bradley A D- D A- C- 41% 12% 47% A+ C+ D+ A+ A A+ A+ C+ A+ C A F+ C+ B 31% 14% 55% D B- F F F A+ B+ C+ B+
1.24 50% 33% 39% 0 +1 1.04 27% 1.7 .45 13% .51 74% .38 1.10 47% 43% 33% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.5 .55 20% .27 73% .20
Nov
26		 Towson A+ A- D+ A+ A+ 31% 22% 47% D+ A+ D- A+ C+ A C- F F D- C+ B C+ C+ 25% 33% 42% B+ C+ D+ D+ D+ D- D+ F F
1.36 67% 36% 65% +24 -1 1.49 20% 1.4 .28 11% .26 47% .12 1.14 54% 35% 32% -3 -3 0.90 39% 0.9 .34 14% .31 82% .25
Dec
2		 Nevada B- D- C+ F F 56% 9% 35% A+ F+ B- A B+ A+ F C+ F C D F+ B+ C- 46% 20% 35% F+ D+ D- C D C- C- A+ A-
1.09 47% 40% 20% -13 +3 0.81 30% 1.4 .42 6% .18 73% .13 1.18 62% 44% 31% +2 +1 1.07 39% 1.1 .42 12% .39 59% .23
Dec
6		 Long Beach St. B B+ D- A+ A 45% 13% 43% B+ A F F F B- A C+ A D+ C- F C D 29% 23% 48% D+ D C+ A- B F A+ B A+
1.18 67% 33% 45% +10 +1 1.26 18% 0.8 .14 16% .44 76% .33 1.09 63% 46% 33% +3 -1 1.05 25% 0.9 .22 13% .17 70% .12
Dec
13		 Tulane B+ B F A- B 53% 5% 42% A+ A- B F C- B F C- F+ A+ C C A+ A 42% 25% 33% C+ A B- A+ B+ A B- A B+
1.19 63% 0% 40% +4 +3 1.17 40% 0.8 .30 15% .24 69% .17 0.86 58% 36% 16% -10 0 0.82 20% 0.9 .17 19% .35 68% .24
Dec
16		 Loyola Marymount D A- F F C+ 57% 16% 27% A+ B- B+ F+ C F B+ F F+ A+ A- F B B+ 24% 20% 57% C B A- A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+
0.95 64% 25% 23% -3 +2 1.00 37% 0.8 .31 23% .35 47% .16 0.80 50% 50% 31% -2 -1 0.96 21% 0.5 .11 25% .19 40% .08
Dec
19		 San Diego B+ B- A+ D C 44% 6% 50% A- C+ D- A+ C+ A D- B- D F B+ F C B- 38% 15% 47% F+ C F F+ F D+ B- F D-
1.26 65% 67% 31% +2 +2 1.12 28% 1.4 .38 14% .29 75% .22 1.29 52% 50% 35% 0 +1 1.04 39% 1.1 .45 16% .21 109% .22
Jan
1		 Cal Poly F+ F F F F 32% 15% 53% C- F B- B+ B C D- A+ C- B+ C A+ A A+ 26% 7% 67% B A D- C+ D+ F A- A- A
0.98 41% 25% 25% -15 0 0.74 35% 1.2 .42 17% .23 85% .20 1.01 57% 0% 28% -9 +1 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 14% .24 71% .17
Jan
3		 Hawaii A+ D- A+ D+ B 45% 13% 42% B+ B+ B A+ A A D- A+ C+ D+ C+ F A+ B- 46% 9% 46% D- C+ A F D- D- B- F D+
1.23 48% 86% 30% -1 +2 1.04 31% 1.3 .41 12% .25 87% .22 1.08 57% 75% 24% -4 +2 0.98 23% 1.7 .40 16% .34 84% .28
Jan
8		 Cal St. Fullerton D- C D- F F 27% 6% 67% B- F B+ A A F A- A+ A+ F F A+ F F 29% 21% 50% B- F A F D F D- A+ C-
1.02 62% 33% 27% -6 +1 0.92 35% 1.3 .44 24% .38 90% .34 1.27 73% 9% 50% +10 -1 1.21 18% 1.7 .30 9% .38 63% .24
Jan
10		 UC Riverside C- A+ C F C+ 49% 12% 39% B+ B- C D+ C- F+ A+ D+ A+ C+ B- D A+ A- 27% 24% 49% A A- F+ F F C+ F F F
1.07 75% 40% 25% +3 +2 1.12 31% 0.9 .28 19% .47 68% .32 1.02 54% 42% 25% -7 -1 0.86 33% 1.2 .38 20% .39 85% .33
Jan
15		 Cal St. Northridge C D C+ F F+ 38% 17% 45% B- D- D- A+ B- A+ C- C- D+ D- B+ F A- B 48% 20% 31% C+ B D F F F F C F
1.09 52% 40% 26% -7 +1 0.88 21% 1.7 .36 8% .29 74% .21 1.16 50% 45% 29% -5 +1 0.94 36% 1.2 .44 10% .44 66% .29
Jan
17		 Cal St. Bakersfield C+ D- F A D+ 43% 14% 43% B- D+ F A+ D+ A+ D D+ D- A A A- C- B- 29% 29% 43% C- C+ C+ A+ A+ B F B+ F
1.17 50% 25% 42% 0 +1 1.04 23% 1.4 .33 11% .32 70% .22 0.87 43% 29% 33% -7 -2 0.84 31% 0.4 .12 21% .48 70% .34
Jan
22		 UC Davis C A- A+ D- B 45% 8% 47% B+ B+ B- F D- D A+ D+ A+ B+ A+ B- F A+ 38% 16% 47% D A B- B B- D- C+ A B
1.08 68% 75% 30% +5 +2 1.16 34% 0.6 .22 22% .46 70% .33 0.99 27% 33% 41% -8 +1 0.88 24% 0.9 .22 15% .33 67% .22
Jan
24		 UC Irvine F C- C- D+ C+ 31% 19% 50% C+ C+ F F F A F D- F A A- C+ A- A- 40% 35% 25% B+ A- A+ D A- D- A A+ A+
0.84 50% 36% 31% -5 0 0.91 18% 0.0 .00 13% .15 67% .10 0.87 45% 37% 29% -8 -2 0.84 20% 1.1 .23 14% .22 54% .12
Jan
29		 UC Santa Barbara F D F B+ F 57% 12% 31% A D- C- F F F F F F A+ A+ A D A 24% 24% 51% A A+ A+ D- A- C D- A D+
0.73 54% 0% 38% -5 +2 0.98 26% 0.0 .00 29% .26 58% .15 0.95 36% 27% 39% -4 -1 0.91 21% 1.1 .24 18% .37 70% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Cal St. Northridge F F F D F 43% 16% 41% B F C+ F D B- D+ F F C+ C F+ C+ C- 48% 17% 35% C C- F C D- A- F F F
0.85 42% 22% 30% -12 +1 0.80 29% 0.9 .25 15% .28 44% .12 1.08 56% 44% 33% 0 +1 1.04 40% 1.0 .40 21% .39 78% .30
Feb
5		 Long Beach St. D- F C A D 47% 11% 43% A- C- B- D- C F A+ D+ A+ C+ F B D D 28% 36% 36% B+ D+ A+ F A+ D+ D F F
1.03 45% 40% 40% -2 +2 1.02 32% 1.1 .35 24% .51 72% .37 0.99 73% 32% 37% +4 -3 1.04 3% 2.0 .06 16% .32 85% .27
Feb
7		 Hawaii D C+ C+ D- C+ 38% 18% 45% C C+ F A+ F B- D+ F F+ B+ D- F A+ B+ 42% 8% 50% D B D+ A+ B C D+ A C+
0.90 57% 40% 28% -4 0 0.95 5% 2.0 .11 15% .28 56% .16 0.97 67% 50% 20% -6 +2 0.94 33% 0.8 .28 19% .38 65% .25
Feb
12		 UC Davis F+ B- A+ A A 50% 15% 35% B A F C F F F B+ F A+ A A- B A+ 41% 25% 34% C+ A A A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+
0.97 63% 57% 41% +9 +2 1.23 17% 1.0 .17 30% .18 78% .14 0.73 48% 29% 32% -8 0 0.86 20% 0.2 .04 18% .12 14% .02
Feb
14		 UC Riverside D- B C+ F F+ 45% 14% 41% B D- F+ F F+ C+ C- B+ C+ B B+ A+ A- A+ 36% 13% 51% D A A+ F+ B F+ B F C-
1.01 65% 43% 19% -5 +1 0.94 23% 0.8 .18 14% .33 75% .25 0.93 50% 14% 29% -10 +1 0.84 18% 1.0 .18 15% .27 88% .23
Feb
21		 UC Irvine A- A F A+ A+ 33% 25% 42% C- A+ C D C- A- D- A+ C- C- A B F C+ 47% 23% 30% D- C D- C+ D F A+ D A+
1.12 63% 25% 45% +5 -1 1.10 33% 0.8 .27 14% .20 82% .17 1.09 44% 33% 44% -3 0 0.96 36% 1.0 .36 13% .13 71% .09



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 0.6 1st
2nd 0.3 4.4 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 6.6 8.8 15.5 3rd
4th 1.8 27.8 3.9 33.5 4th
5th 0.0 11.3 6.7 18.0 5th
6th 0.8 13.8 0.2 14.8 6th
7th 0.0 3.9 4.9 8.8 7th
8th 0.5 3.6 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.5 8.3 31.9 41.6 17.6 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 3.4% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 17.6% 20.0% 20.0% 12.7 0.0 1.2 2.1 0.2 0.0 14.1
12-8 41.6% 10.9% 10.9% 13.2 0.5 2.8 1.1 0.0 37.1
11-9 31.9% 6.8% 6.8% 13.4 0.1 1.2 0.8 0.1 29.7
10-10 8.3% 6.3% 6.3% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 7.8
9-11 0.5% 4.3% 4.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.5
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 13.1 89.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.5% 100.0% 12.7 0.1 35.1 58.2 6.5 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.6%
Lose Out 0.3%