UNC Asheville
Big South
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#176
Expected Predictive Rating-0.7#177
Pace68.1#209
Improvement+2.6#49

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#130
First Shot-0.2#177
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#83
Layup/Dunks-1.1#224
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#18
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#252
Freethrows-0.8#235
Improvement+2.3#43

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#246
First Shot-0.9#202
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#298
Layups/Dunks-1.1#214
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#277
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#58
Freethrows-1.5#291
Improvement+0.3#159
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.0% 19.5% 12.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 74.0% 84.6% 63.6%
.500 or above in Conference 79.6% 89.2% 70.2%
Conference Champion 19.9% 31.0% 9.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 0.8% 3.0%
First Four0.9% 0.6% 1.2%
First Round15.6% 19.2% 12.2%
Second Round0.8% 1.1% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: High Point (Home) - 49.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 54 - 9
Quad 411 - 416 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 9   @ Alabama L 54-110 3%     0 - 1 -35.1 -14.3 -17.8
  Nov 09, 2024 147   @ Ohio L 76-82 34%     0 - 2 -2.7 +0.4 -2.9
  Nov 18, 2024 207   @ North Florida W 89-75 44%     1 - 2 +14.7 +16.0 -0.8
  Nov 22, 2024 270   Southeast Missouri St. W 72-64 69%     2 - 2 +2.2 -1.1 +3.4
  Nov 24, 2024 338   @ Central Arkansas L 83-92 2OT 76%     2 - 3 -17.2 -4.9 -11.0
  Dec 01, 2024 317   @ Tennessee St. W 92-74 69%     3 - 3 +12.1 +13.5 -2.0
  Dec 03, 2024 82   @ George Mason L 52-74 15%     3 - 4 -11.9 -9.7 -3.7
  Dec 14, 2024 311   Western Carolina W 78-61 84%     4 - 4 +5.6 +0.5 +4.7
  Dec 17, 2024 207   North Florida W 95-81 67%     5 - 4 +8.7 +11.0 -3.0
  Dec 21, 2024 134   @ UNC Wilmington L 74-85 30%     5 - 5 -6.4 +8.7 -16.2
  Jan 04, 2025 123   High Point L 76-77 49%    
  Jan 08, 2025 173   @ Longwood L 72-75 38%    
  Jan 11, 2025 268   @ Presbyterian W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 15, 2025 342   South Carolina Upstate W 85-71 90%    
  Jan 18, 2025 190   Winthrop W 82-78 63%    
  Jan 22, 2025 229   @ Gardner-Webb L 76-77 49%    
  Jan 25, 2025 298   @ Charleston Southern W 77-73 63%    
  Jan 29, 2025 214   Radford W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 05, 2025 229   Gardner-Webb W 80-74 70%    
  Feb 08, 2025 123   @ High Point L 74-80 29%    
  Feb 12, 2025 342   @ South Carolina Upstate W 82-74 76%    
  Feb 15, 2025 298   Charleston Southern W 80-70 81%    
  Feb 19, 2025 214   @ Radford L 70-71 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 173   Longwood W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 26, 2025 268   Presbyterian W 77-69 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 190   @ Winthrop L 79-81 42%    
Projected Record 15 - 11 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.2 6.2 5.6 3.1 1.0 0.2 19.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 5.3 7.9 4.5 1.0 0.1 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 5.5 7.7 2.8 0.3 0.0 17.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.4 6.9 2.0 0.1 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.8 2.0 0.1 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.2 1.6 0.1 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.6 1.2 0.1 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.2 5.8 9.3 12.6 15.3 15.6 14.1 11.0 6.6 3.2 1.0 0.2 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
14-2 97.8% 3.1    2.8 0.3 0.0
13-3 84.7% 5.6    4.2 1.4 0.1
12-4 56.1% 6.2    2.9 2.7 0.5 0.0
11-5 22.9% 3.2    0.7 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0
10-6 3.4% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 19.9% 19.9 11.8 6.0 1.7 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 45.7% 45.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 1.0% 41.7% 41.7% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6
14-2 3.2% 38.6% 38.6% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.0
13-3 6.6% 31.5% 31.5% 13.6 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.2 4.5
12-4 11.0% 27.0% 27.0% 14.0 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.7 0.0 8.0
11-5 14.1% 20.6% 20.6% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.2 0.1 11.2
10-6 15.6% 14.9% 14.9% 14.7 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.2 13.2
9-7 15.3% 11.6% 11.6% 15.1 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.4 13.5
8-8 12.6% 9.0% 9.0% 15.4 0.0 0.7 0.4 11.5
7-9 9.3% 7.2% 7.2% 15.8 0.1 0.6 8.6
6-10 5.8% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3 5.5
5-11 3.2% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.1 3.1
4-12 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-13 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-14 0.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.4 5.3 2.1 84.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.6 44.2 55.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%