UNC Asheville
Big South
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#172
Expected Predictive Rating+2.4#131
Pace69.2#157
Improvement+3.3#50

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#111
First Shot+0.0#172
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#42
Layup/Dunks-0.7#213
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#18
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#260
Freethrows-0.8#232
Improvement+1.2#120

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#254
First Shot-0.9#208
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#316
Layups/Dunks-1.3#223
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#278
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#67
Freethrows-1.5#284
Improvement+2.2#75
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.5% 19.7% 15.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 98.7%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 50.0% 56.7% 30.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round18.5% 19.7% 15.0%
Second Round0.9% 0.9% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Home) - 74.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 44 - 7
Quad 414 - 318 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 5   @ Alabama L 54-110 3%     0 - 1 -33.8 -14.0 -16.8
  Nov 09, 2024 168   @ Ohio L 76-82 39%     0 - 2 -3.6 +1.4 -4.8
  Nov 18, 2024 245   @ North Florida W 89-75 59%     1 - 2 +11.4 +13.2 -1.2
  Nov 22, 2024 265   Southeast Missouri St. W 72-64 70%     2 - 2 +2.2 -1.4 +3.8
  Nov 24, 2024 341   @ Central Arkansas L 83-92 2OT 80%     2 - 3 -18.3 -6.2 -10.8
  Dec 01, 2024 289   @ Tennessee St. W 92-74 66%     3 - 3 +13.5 +14.6 -1.7
  Dec 03, 2024 81   @ George Mason L 52-74 17%     3 - 4 -12.2 -8.2 -5.5
  Dec 14, 2024 350   Western Carolina W 78-61 91%     4 - 4 +1.7 -1.9 +3.2
  Dec 17, 2024 245   North Florida W 95-81 76%     5 - 4 +6.4 +8.6 -2.9
  Dec 21, 2024 117   @ UNC Wilmington L 74-85 29%     5 - 5 -5.7 +9.2 -16.0
  Jan 04, 2025 107   High Point W 103-99 43%     6 - 5 1 - 0 +5.5 +15.8 -10.7
  Jan 08, 2025 190   @ Longwood L 76-85 44%     6 - 6 1 - 1 -7.9 +3.0 -10.9
  Jan 11, 2025 283   @ Presbyterian W 96-87 65%     7 - 6 2 - 1 +4.8 +22.0 -17.0
  Jan 15, 2025 346   South Carolina Upstate W 93-92 90%     8 - 6 3 - 1 -13.5 +2.4 -16.0
  Jan 18, 2025 205   Winthrop W 93-84 66%     9 - 6 4 - 1 +4.3 +10.5 -6.7
  Jan 22, 2025 236   @ Gardner-Webb W 61-53 56%     10 - 6 5 - 1 +6.1 -8.0 +14.7
  Jan 25, 2025 285   @ Charleston Southern W 69-61 65%     11 - 6 6 - 1 +3.7 -6.4 +9.9
  Jan 29, 2025 204   Radford W 72-65 66%     12 - 6 7 - 1 +2.4 +4.4 -1.1
  Feb 06, 2025 236   Gardner-Webb W 81-74 75%    
  Feb 08, 2025 107   @ High Point L 76-83 25%    
  Feb 12, 2025 346   @ South Carolina Upstate W 85-76 79%    
  Feb 15, 2025 285   Charleston Southern W 79-70 81%    
  Feb 19, 2025 204   @ Radford L 73-74 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 190   Longwood W 80-76 65%    
  Feb 26, 2025 283   Presbyterian W 78-69 81%    
  Mar 01, 2025 205   @ Winthrop L 82-83 46%    
Projected Record 17 - 9 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.4 13.9 20.4 10.3 2.0 50.0 1st
2nd 0.4 5.8 16.8 14.7 3.6 41.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 3.7 0.8 6.2 3rd
4th 0.2 1.3 0.2 1.7 4th
5th 0.4 0.1 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.7 3.6 9.8 21.0 28.6 24.0 10.3 2.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 2.0    2.0
14-2 100.0% 10.3    9.3 1.0
13-3 85.0% 20.4    13.2 7.2
12-4 48.5% 13.9    5.2 8.1 0.6
11-5 16.1% 3.4    0.3 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0
10-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 50.0% 50.0 29.9 18.3 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 2.0% 28.6% 28.6% 12.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.4
14-2 10.3% 28.3% 28.3% 13.8 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.3 7.4
13-3 24.0% 24.2% 24.2% 14.3 0.0 0.6 3.2 2.0 0.1 18.2
12-4 28.6% 18.0% 18.0% 14.6 0.2 1.9 2.7 0.4 23.4
11-5 21.0% 13.4% 13.4% 15.0 0.0 0.5 1.8 0.5 18.2
10-6 9.8% 10.5% 10.5% 15.3 0.0 0.7 0.3 8.8
9-7 3.6% 6.1% 6.1% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.4
8-8 0.7% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.7
7-9 0.0% 0.0
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 18.5% 18.5% 0.0% 14.4 0.2 1.9 7.3 7.5 1.5 81.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 12.8 28.6 58.9 12.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%