UNC Asheville
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.0 #209
Expected Predictive Rating -5.8 #256
Pace 65.1 #276
Improvement +1.2 #137

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #215 C C- C- C+ F
Defense #216 C- C+ C C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #359 1.14 #193 -6.0 #349
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% #2 0.82 #85 +7.8 #1
Three Pointers 33% #327 1.08 #91 -2.9 #281
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #203 -1.0 #202
Freethrows 0.34 #72 70% #271 0.24 #116
Second Chance 29.0% #231 1.00 #217 0.29 #232
Turnovers 17.9% #262
Total Offense -1.8 #215

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #47 1.16 #183 -3.2 #291
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #251 0.90 #350 -0.4 #221
Three Pointers 38% #267 1.00 #149 +1.9 #110
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #236 -1.7 #237
Freethrows 0.32 #234 69% #28 0.22 #193
Second Chance 31.5% #223 0.95 #77 0.30 #141
Turnovers 16.4% #198
Total Defense -1.2 #216

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -5.8% #364 1.4% #299
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.1% #108 2.0% #218
Possession Length 18.8 #324 17.1 #168
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #275 0.19 #255
Improvement +0.9 #130 +0.3 #174

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.2% 6.5% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 7.7% 9.5% 1.4%
.500 or above in Conference 75.7% 83.1% 49.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four3.2% 3.0% 4.1%
First Round4.9% 5.3% 3.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina Upstate (Home) - 77.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 31 - 51 - 11
Quad 411 - 612 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 99 @Wichita St. L 58 - 75 16% -4  0 - 1 -9 -9 F+ A+ F -1 B+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 260 @Georgia Southern L 90 - 93 48% +1  0 - 2 -6 +3 C+ B F+ -8 D- A+ F+
 Tue, Nov 11 178 Lipscomb W 69 - 64 55% +4  1 - 2 +1 -0 B B- F +2 A C- C
 Wed, Nov 19 277 @Western Carolina L 73 - 80 52% -1  1 - 3 -10 +2 B F D+ -14 C- D+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 230 Tennessee St. L 73 - 75 65% +3  1 - 4 -9 -7 A+ D- F -2 C D- A-
 Sun, Nov 30 172 Appalachian St. W 67 - 55 54% +8  2 - 4 +8 +0 D+ A+ F +9 B+ B C
 Tue, Dec 2 312 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 77 72% +0  3 - 4 -4 +9 C+ B C -12 F C B-
 Sat, Dec 6 23 @North Carolina St. L 63 - 75 3% -3  3 - 5 +7 +1 D C C+ +6 A D- A
 Wed, Dec 10 90 Miami (OH) L 87 - 90 OT 28% -6  3 - 6 +0 +4 B C- B -4 C A F
 Sat, Dec 13 133 St. Thomas L 59 - 80 43% -13  3 - 7 -22 -13 F+ D+ F -11 D+ C- D+
 Sun, Dec 21 120 @UAB L 47 - 72 20% -13  3 - 8 -19 -19 F F F+ -2 C- A- F+
 Wed, Dec 31 98 High Point L 69 - 87 31% -11  3 - 9 0 - 1 -16 -3 F+ C A+ -14 F D B+
 Sat, Jan 3 246 @Charleston Southern L 83 - 86 45% -6  3 - 10 0 - 2 -5 +8 F A+ C+ -13 F F A-
 Wed, Jan 7 264 Longwood W 72 - 61 72% +6  4 - 10 1 - 2 +2 +3 C D+ B +0 C+ A F+
 Sat, Jan 10 234 @Radford W 91 - 72 43% +9  5 - 10 2 - 2 +18 +12 A+ F C +5 A A F
 Wed, Jan 14 262 @Presbyterian L 70 - 71 49% -6  5 - 11 2 - 3 -4 +1 F C C -5 F B+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 123 Winthrop L 67 - 69 41% -6  5 - 12 2 - 4 -3 -8 F D- B+ +5 A- B+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 302 @South Carolina Upstate W 83 - 69 58% +6  6 - 12 3 - 4 +9 +14 A- D+ B- -5 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 363 Gardner-Webb W 69 - 50 95% +12  7 - 12 4 - 4 -2 -2 C F+ C- +3 C+ C C
 Sat, Jan 31 123 @Winthrop L 71 - 84 21% -7  7 - 13 4 - 5 -8 +5 C- F A -14 F D B+
 Wed, Feb 4 302 South Carolina Upstate W 74 - 66 78%
 Thu, Feb 12 264 @Longwood L 71 - 72 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 262 Presbyterian W 71 - 65 71%
 Thu, Feb 19 98 @High Point L 71 - 82 15%
 Sat, Feb 21 234 Radford W 79 - 75 65%
 Thu, Feb 26 363 @Gardner-Webb W 80 - 68 88%
 Sat, Feb 28 246 Charleston Southern W 77 - 72 68%
Totals 11 - 16 8 - 8 -3 -2 C C- C- -1 C- C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.5 13.6 12.7 2.0 30.8 3rd
4th 0.0 2.5 17.9 15.3 2.1 0.0 37.8 4th
5th 0.8 9.4 8.0 0.6 18.9 5th
6th 0.1 3.1 4.5 0.5 8.1 6th
7th 0.6 2.2 0.4 3.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.1 1.2 6.3 16.8 28.9 29.5 15.0 2.3 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.4% 0.0    0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 2.3% 12.9% 12.9% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.0
10-6 15.0% 7.8% 7.8% 15.1 0.0 1.0 0.1 13.8
9-7 29.5% 7.6% 7.6% 15.8 0.4 1.8 27.2
8-8 28.9% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5 27.4
7-9 16.8% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.7 16.1
6-10 6.3% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.2 6.0
5-11 1.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-12 0.1% 0.0 0.1
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 15.7 93.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 14.2 1.7 10.2 59.3 28.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%