UNC Asheville
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -3.6 223
Results Rating -5.0 245
Pace 64.0 305
Improvement +0.3 179

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 252 C- D+ C- C F
Defense C 185 C- C+ C- C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 357 C- 56% 220 -5.9 348
2 Pt. Jumpers 60% 14 B- 41% 77 +7.4 2
Three Pointers 34% 323 C+ 35% 124 -3.1 286
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.7 364 C+ +1.3 125
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 222
Second Chance C- 29.1% 216 D+ 0.96 287 D+ 0.28 254
Turnovers C- 17.2% 213
Freethrows C+ 0.32 143 D 69% 288 C 0.22 181
Total Offense D+ -3.2 252

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 39% 313 C 10.8% 167
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 15% 318 C- 5.7% 230
Three Pointers B+ 91% 30 B- 0.6% 105
Total F+ 45% 347 C 5.5% 173

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 65 C 57% 160 +2.3 264
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 239 D- 43% 336 +0.3 210
Three Pointers 38% 256 C 34% 159 -1.6 115
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 274 C +0.3 195
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 214
Second Chance C- 31.6% 236 B 0.92 41 C+ 0.29 117
Turnovers C- 16.0% 227
Freethrows C 0.31 204 A- 68% 17 C+ 0.21 144
Total Defense C -0.5 185

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 150 C+ 12.0% 127
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 138 C 4.6% 193
Three Pointers D- 90% 333 C 0.9% 165
Total C 55% 162 C+ 6.4% 121

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.1 337 17.1 148
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 258 0.19 254
Improvement -1.3 #251 +1.6 #97

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 251 223 194
Results Rating Rank 265 243 215
Conference Record 8 - 8 9 - 7 9 - 7
Conference Finish 4 4 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 5% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 3% 4% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 96% 100% 67%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four3% 3% 3%
First Round4% 4% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Away) - 86.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 31 - 31 - 10
Quad 411 - 712 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 97 @Wichita St. L 58 - 75 13% -4  10% 0 - 1 D -8 F+ -10 F+ A+ F C+ +1 A- F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 266 @Georgia Southern L 90 - 93 48% +1  56% 0 - 2 D+ -6 C -0 B- B F D -5 D- A F
 Tue, Nov 11 188 Lipscomb W 69 - 64 54% +4  84% 1 - 2 C +0 D+ -2 B B F B- +3 A D+ D+
 Wed, Nov 19 247 @Western Carolina L 73 - 80 43% -1  21% 1 - 3 D -9 C +1 B+ F D F -10 C- C- F
 Tue, Nov 25 224 Tennessee St. L 73 - 75 62% +3  71% 1 - 4 D -9 F -11 A+ D- F B- +2 C+ D- A-
 Sun, Nov 30 173 Appalachian St. W 67 - 55 50% +8  95% 2 - 4 B +8 D+ -3 D A+ F A+ +13 B+ B+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 301 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 77 67% +0  41% 3 - 4 C- -3 B- +5 C+ B B- F+ -8 F C- B-
 Sat, Dec 6 24 @North Carolina St. L 63 - 75 3% -3  24% 3 - 5 B- +7 D+ -3 D C C A +9 A F+ A
 Wed, Dec 10 83 Miami (OH) L 87 - 90 OT 24% -6  26% 3 - 6 C +1 C+ +2 B C- B C -1 C A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 128 St. Thomas L 59 - 80 38% -13  7% 3 - 7 F -22 F -16 F C- F D- -7 D+ C- D+
 Sun, Dec 21 121 @UAB L 47 - 72 19% -13  10% 3 - 8 F -19 F -20 F F F+ C -1 D+ A- F+
 Wed, Dec 31 90 High Point L 69 - 87 26% -11  3% 3 - 9 0 - 1 F+ -15 D -4 F+ C+ A+ F -11 F D- B
 Sat, Jan 3 268 @Charleston Southern L 83 - 86 48% -6  0% 3 - 10 0 - 2 D+ -6 B- +4 F A+ C+ F -10 F F A-
 Wed, Jan 7 262 Longwood W 72 - 61 69% +6  98% 4 - 10 1 - 2 C+ +2 C +0 C D+ B+ B- +3 B- A F+
 Sat, Jan 10 233 @Radford W 91 - 72 40% +9  98% 5 - 10 2 - 2 A +18 A- +10 A+ F C A- +7 A A F
 Wed, Jan 14 277 @Presbyterian L 70 - 71 50% -6  9% 5 - 11 2 - 3 C- -5 C- -2 F C- C+ C- -3 F B+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 135 Winthrop L 67 - 69 41% -6  3% 5 - 12 2 - 4 C- -3 F -10 F D- B A- +7 A- A- A+
 Wed, Jan 21 297 @South Carolina Upstate W 83 - 69 55% +6  93% 6 - 12 3 - 4 B +9 A +11 A D- B C- -2 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 364 Gardner-Webb W 69 - 50 94% +12  95% 7 - 12 4 - 4 C- -3 D -5 C D- C B+ +6 B D+ B-
 Sat, Jan 31 135 @Winthrop L 71 - 84 21% -7  0% 7 - 13 4 - 5 D -8 C+ +2 C- F A F -12 F D B+
 Wed, Feb 4 297 South Carolina Upstate W 76 - 67 76% +0  46% 8 - 13 5 - 5 C- -2 C +0 A D D C- -2 C- A+ F
 Thu, Feb 12 262 @Longwood W 79 - 74 46% +0  43% 9 - 13 6 - 5 C+ +2 B +6 C B A+ D+ -4 F+ C F
 Sat, Feb 14 277 Presbyterian L 57 - 58 72% +2  79% 9 - 14 6 - 6 D -11 F -16 D- F C B+ +6 B+ D C+
 Thu, Feb 19 90 @High Point L 48 - 74 12% -13  1% 9 - 15 6 - 7 F+ -17 F -21 F F+ D- B- +2 B B- D+
 Sat, Feb 21 233 Radford W 74 - 73 OT 63% +1  57% 10 - 15 7 - 7 D+ -6 D- -7 D+ F+ A+ C+ +1 B- B+ C-
 Thu, Feb 26 364 @Gardner-Webb W 78 - 66 87%
 Sat, Feb 28 268 Charleston Southern W 76 - 70 70%
Totals 12 - 15 9 - 7 -4 D+ -3 D+ C+ F C +0 C+ D C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- B- C+ C+ 29% 60% 34% F C- C- D+ D+ C- C+ D C C C D- C C 43% 19% 38% D+ C- C- B C+ C- C A- C+
1.04 56% 41% 35% +1 -3 0.99 29% 1.0 .28 17% .32 69% .22 1.09 57% 43% 34% 0 +1 1.04 32% 0.9 .29 16% .31 68% .22
Nov
4		 Wichita St. F+ F C D- D+ 13% 58% 29% F F+ B- A+ A+ F D+ F D C+ A+ F B A- 45% 29% 27% B- A- F F F A+ B A B+
0.86 33% 39% 29% -5 -7 0.79 31% 1.5 .47 24% .25 62% .15 1.11 36% 50% 31% -8 -1 0.86 51% 1.3 .66 21% .28 60% .17
Nov
8		 Georgia Southern C B- A+ F A- 40% 37% 23% F B- D A+ B F C+ A B+ D B- F C+ D- 47% 14% 39% C- D- C- A+ A F F C+ F
1.12 62% 63% 25% +8 -2 1.13 31% 1.4 .45 22% .38 83% .32 1.16 52% 75% 32% +1 +1 1.07 29% 0.6 .17 11% .55 72% .39
Nov
11		 Lipscomb D+ B- A+ B+ A- 26% 37% 37% F B C A B F A+ F A+ B- B- F A+ A+ 42% 12% 46% C- A F A+ D+ D+ D B- D+
1.07 64% 50% 38% +8 -3 1.12 31% 1.2 .38 23% .48 63% .30 0.99 55% 50% 21% -9 +1 0.87 39% 0.8 .29 15% .27 73% .20
Nov
19		 Western Carolina C A B A+ A+ 15% 43% 43% F B+ D+ F F D A+ F C- F D+ D- A+ C- 49% 24% 27% C- C- F A+ C- F F F F
1.13 71% 45% 50% +15 -5 1.23 25% 0.6 .16 17% .43 52% .22 1.24 59% 45% 25% -1 0 1.00 49% 0.7 .36 12% .51 79% .41
Nov
25		 Tennessee St. F C+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 43% 22% F A+ D+ F D- F A+ F A+ B- B- D- A+ B- 49% 26% 25% F+ C+ F+ C- D- A- C- C- C-
0.99 62% 63% 63% +21 -3 1.38 28% 0.9 .24 31% .55 64% .36 1.02 54% 43% 23% -5 0 0.92 38% 1.1 .41 20% .29 76% .22
Nov
30		 Appalachian St. D+ A A+ F C- 29% 29% 41% F+ D B A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ F C A+ B- 21% 30% 49% A+ B+ A+ D B+ C B A+ A
1.04 67% 50% 18% -4 -2 0.90 36% 1.3 .46 20% .52 81% .43 0.85 80% 36% 22% -5 -2 0.87 21% 1.1 .24 16% .28 47% .13
Dec
2		 UNC Greensboro B- D- A+ A+ B 35% 35% 31% F+ C+ D+ A+ B B- A+ C A F+ F D+ F F 31% 22% 47% C F B- F+ C- B- D+ D+ D+
1.26 53% 53% 47% +9 -2 1.16 28% 1.5 .41 12% .37 71% .26 1.19 79% 40% 43% +13 -1 1.27 25% 1.2 .29 17% .39 71% .28
Dec
6		 North Carolina St. D+ F D A C+ 13% 46% 42% F D D+ B+ C C C+ A B A F+ B A+ A+ 48% 12% 40% D- A B- F F+ A B+ D B
0.93 33% 32% 40% -2 -5 0.88 24% 1.1 .26 21% .32 76% .24 1.11 71% 33% 20% -3 +2 1.00 28% 1.7 .47 18% .27 80% .22
Dec
10		 Miami (OH) C+ B B A+ A- 29% 34% 36% F B F A+ C- B B+ B- B+ C F+ C D+ C- 36% 22% 41% B C A+ D A+ F C C+ C
1.12 65% 45% 43% +9 -2 1.16 10% 2.3 .24 15% .33 77% .26 1.15 71% 38% 38% +7 0 1.16 12% 1.3 .15 6% .33 75% .25
Dec
13		 St. Thomas F C- D F F+ 40% 32% 28% F F C D+ C- F C- F D- D- C+ A+ F C- 57% 10% 33% D- D+ F A+ C- D+ F A+ D+
0.88 58% 33% 23% -6 -1 0.87 29% 1.1 .32 24% .26 62% .16 1.20 62% 20% 47% +7 +3 1.22 30% 0.7 .21 13% .42 54% .22
Dec
21		 UAB F F A F D+ 18% 55% 27% F F D- F F F+ F+ F F C C+ A+ C- C 62% 15% 23% F D+ C A+ A- F+ C B C+
0.73 44% 44% 23% -3 -6 0.84 19% 0.0 .00 20% .18 67% .12 1.12 56% 25% 33% -3 +2 1.00 32% 0.8 .24 8% .30 67% .20
Dec
31		 High Point D A+ F F D 32% 38% 30% F F+ F+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F B F F A+ F F 40% 19% 42% B+ F A+ F D- B F B- F
1.03 81% 26% 20% -3 -3 0.90 24% 1.5 .36 12% .41 63% .25 1.30 82% 25% 50% +17 0 1.37 19% 2.3 .43 16% .47 73% .34
Jan
3		 Charleston Southern B- F C F F 42% 32% 26% D+ F A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ D+ A+ F F F F+ F 53% 9% 38% F+ F F D F A- F A+ F
1.15 33% 38% 23% -15 -1 0.70 44% 1.3 .58 11% .61 69% .42 1.19 72% 50% 39% +11 +3 1.30 42% 1.0 .42 22% .52 52% .27
Jan
7		 Longwood C C D A+ B- 35% 26% 39% F+ C A+ F D+ B+ B F C B- C- A+ B- B 42% 17% 42% D- B- A A- A F+ D- A C
1.13 63% 33% 44% +6 -1 1.13 44% 0.5 .22 16% .39 62% .24 0.96 60% 13% 30% -6 +1 0.92 26% 0.8 .20 16% .37 65% .24
Jan
10		 Radford A- A+ C+ A+ A+ 29% 29% 41% F A+ D F F C A+ F A- A- F+ A+ A+ A+ 46% 8% 46% F A A A A F F C+ F
1.24 80% 40% 52% +18 -2 1.35 28% 0.7 .19 18% .48 62% .30 0.98 67% 25% 13% -12 +2 0.83 21% 0.8 .17 10% .48 72% .35
Jan
14		 Presbyterian C- F F A+ F 34% 40% 26% F F C+ D C- C+ A+ A+ A+ C- A- F F F 53% 28% 19% D F B B+ B+ C F A+ D-
1.07 44% 21% 50% -6 -3 0.85 32% 0.9 .29 15% .43 83% .36 1.08 48% 58% 63% +8 0 1.19 29% 0.9 .25 20% .51 52% .27
Jan
17		 Winthrop F F A F F 23% 35% 42% F F C+ F D- B A D+ A- A- A+ F D+ A 43% 2% 54% F A- C+ A+ A- A+ F D- F
0.96 42% 50% 18% -10 -3 0.77 30% 0.8 .23 14% .42 72% .30 0.98 25% 100% 36% -11 +3 0.85 32% 0.8 .27 21% .54 80% .44
Jan
21		 South Carolina Upstate A C+ F+ A+ A+ 45% 29% 27% D- A D+ D- D- B A A- A+ C- B+ F D D- 52% 12% 37% F F+ C+ A+ A+ F B A+ A
1.24 59% 29% 62% +9 -1 1.18 28% 1.0 .28 13% .38 77% .29 1.03 48% 83% 37% +2 +2 1.10 27% 0.4 .11 12% .26 53% .14
Jan
29		 Gardner-Webb D A- F A+ C+ 26% 24% 50% F+ C C+ F D- C A+ F B+ B+ B+ F A+ A- 53% 6% 40% F B C- D+ D+ B- A+ A+ A+
1.16 73% 10% 48% +7 -1 1.14 37% 0.8 .29 15% .41 62% .26 0.84 48% 67% 21% -11 +3 0.85 24% 1.0 .24 22% .15 57% .09
Jan
31		 Winthrop C+ B- A+ F C+ 28% 32% 40% F C- C- F F A A A+ A+ F B+ F F F 33% 4% 62% D F D- C- D B+ F F F
1.09 62% 53% 26% +1 -2 1.00 27% 0.7 .18 12% .42 83% .35 1.30 47% 50% 43% +5 +2 1.16 38% 1.1 .41 19% .53 89% .47
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 South Carolina Upstate C A+ C B+ A+ 32% 23% 45% D- A D- C D D B F C C- D- B+ B C- 40% 24% 36% C+ C- B- A+ A+ F C B+ C+
1.13 80% 36% 38% +9 -1 1.19 25% 1.1 .29 18% .34 63% .22 0.99 64% 31% 30% -2 0 0.98 26% 0.3 .08 13% .29 65% .19
Feb
12		 Longwood B D- B A+ B- 37% 33% 31% F C B B- B A+ C- B+ C+ D+ F B- D+ F 35% 18% 47% D+ F+ F A C F F+ A+ C+
1.17 56% 44% 47% +7 -2 1.12 34% 1.0 .34 12% .34 75% .25 1.10 71% 33% 35% +4 0 1.10 41% 0.8 .31 15% .38 59% .23
Feb
14		 Presbyterian F F A+ F D- 46% 30% 24% D- D- D F F C F C- F B+ A+ F A+ B+ 42% 31% 27% B- B+ B- F D C+ A A+ A+
0.90 48% 53% 25% -3 -1 0.94 26% 0.4 .12 16% .17 67% .11 0.92 42% 50% 25% -7 -1 0.87 29% 1.3 .38 21% .24 58% .14
Feb
19		 High Point F F F F F 30% 26% 43% F F B- F F+ D- D F F B- B F A A- 53% 2% 45% F B F A+ B- D+ B D+ B-
0.75 43% 25% 25% -14 -1 0.72 36% 0.7 .24 25% .27 54% .14 1.15 56% 100% 26% -5 +3 0.98 42% 0.8 .33 12% .32 78% .25
Feb
21		 Radford D- C B+ C- C 43% 36% 21% F D+ D- F F+ A+ F F F C+ A+ B+ F C+ 38% 25% 37% B B- D+ A+ B+ C- F A+ F+
1.04 58% 45% 33% +2 -2 1.04 26% 0.9 .24 11% .22 50% .11 1.03 35% 31% 47% -3 -1 0.94 32% 0.7 .22 17% .51 63% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 5.0 40.6 45.6 3rd
4th 1.3 28.5 20.8 50.6 4th
5th 2.2 0.9 3.1 5th
6th 0.7 0.7 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 4.3 34.3 61.4 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 61.4% 5.3% 5.3% 15.8 0.7 2.6 58.1
8-8 34.3% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 1.5 32.8
7-9 4.3% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.1 4.2
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 15.9 95.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.3% 100.0% 15.8 21.5 78.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 28.3%
Lose Out 2.3%