UTEP
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.4 243
Results Rating -5.7 252
Pace 63.4 320
Improvement +3.4 60

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 270 D+ D+ C D F+
Defense C 190 C D+ C+ D B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 350 C+ 60% 122 -4.4 329
2 Pt. Jumpers 49% 58 D- 31% 344 +1.7 88
Three Pointers 40% 212 C 34% 169 -0.5 199
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ -1.8 347 C- -1.4 223
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 284
Second Chance D+ 26.6% 290 C- 0.98 257 D+ 0.26 294
Turnovers C 16.7% 168
Freethrows D 0.27 307 D 69% 295 D 0.18 322
Total Offense D+ -3.8 270

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D- 37% 336 C+ 10.3% 137
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 32% 91 D+ 6.9% 298
Three Pointers C+ 87% 135 B 0.4% 68
Total D+ 52% 266 C+ 5.4% 157

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 255 C 58% 188 -1.2 131
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 88 D+ 41% 287 +1.5 300
Three Pointers 40% 196 C 34% 175 -0.4 164
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 92 C- +0.7 211
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 185
Second Chance D 33.9% 308 C 1.03 177 D+ 0.35 274
Turnovers C+ 18.0% 110
Freethrows D- 0.36 322 C 73% 205 D 0.26 321
Total Defense C -0.6 190

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 57% 336 B- 14.3% 61
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 187 B- 6.4% 86
Three Pointers C- 85% 208 C- 0.7% 192
Total C- 59% 251 B- 7.0% 79

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.8 319 17.3 184
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 169 0.19 245
Improvement +1.1 #128 +2.2 #65

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 270 243 209
Results Rating Rank 311 252 221
Conference Record 6 - 14 7 - 13 9 - 11
Conference Finish 12 10 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 2% 7% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 25% 7% 32%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Away) - 25.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 34 - 94 - 15
Quad 45 - 69 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 148 Loyola Marymount L 58 - 71 42% -3  29% 0 - 1 F+ -15 F -11 D- F B+ D -6 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 28 @Utah St. L 51 - 75 3% -12  3% 0 - 2 D+ -6 F -15 F D+ D A +9 B+ C A+
 Mon, Nov 24 136 William & Mary L 63 - 74 28% -8  0% 0 - 3 D -9 F -16 F B- D+ A- +7 C B- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 121 UAB L 59 - 75 25% -7  11% 0 - 4 D- -13 D- -7 C F+ F+ D- -8 B F C-
 Sun, Dec 7 122 @Seattle L 68 - 75 17% -1  33% 0 - 5 C -1 B +6 B B- C+ D- -8 D- F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 119 @Hawaii L 61 - 66 17% +2  62% 0 - 6 C +1 C- -2 D A+ B B- +2 B+ A- F
 Sun, Dec 21 302 Norfolk St. L 71 - 72 75% -3  25% 0 - 7 D- -12 F+ -8 C- C F D+ -4 F+ A- B
 Mon, Dec 22 129 North Dakota St. W 76 - 66 37% +3  66% 1 - 7 B +9 C +1 C+ C C A- +8 C A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 215 @Louisiana Tech L 63 - 75 34% -11  1% 1 - 8 0 - 1 D- -12 D+ -3 F A F F -10 F A+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 204 @Missouri St. L 55 - 79 31% -16  0% 1 - 9 0 - 2 F -23 F+ -8 F+ D+ D+ F -20 F+ F C
 Sun, Jan 4 184 @Florida International L 64 - 76 29% -2  36% 1 - 10 0 - 3 D -11 D- -7 D- F+ B D+ -4 C- F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 167 Middle Tennessee W 83 - 80 OT 46% -5  11% 2 - 10 1 - 3 C -0 B- +4 D A+ B+ D+ -4 C B- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 147 Western Kentucky L 56 - 68 42% -0  43% 2 - 11 1 - 4 D- -14 F -18 F F F B- +3 C+ B C
 Thu, Jan 15 265 @Delaware W 70 - 69 44% -2  16% 3 - 11 2 - 4 C- -2 C+ +2 C+ D- A+ D+ -4 A F F
 Sat, Jan 17 107 @Liberty L 69 - 80 14% -7  1% 3 - 12 2 - 5 C- -4 C+ +3 A+ F D- D- -8 F+ C F+
 Thu, Jan 22 184 Florida International W 83 - 77 51% +5  91% 4 - 12 3 - 5 C +1 B- +4 B+ C+ D C- -3 F+ A- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 204 Missouri St. L 57 - 62 54% +2  63% 4 - 13 3 - 6 D -10 F -16 D- F B- B+ +5 B D+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 215 Louisiana Tech L 59 - 69 56% -6  19% 4 - 14 3 - 7 F+ -16 F -10 F F C+ D- -6 D- D- A+
 Sat, Jan 31 265 Delaware W 70 - 55 67% +2  53% 5 - 14 4 - 7 B- +6 C- -2 D D+ A A +10 A+ D- A
 Wed, Feb 4 114 @Sam Houston St. L 66 - 70 16% -4  11% 5 - 15 4 - 8 C+ +2 D- -7 D- F A+ A +9 A+ D+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 163 New Mexico St. W 91 - 88 OT 45% -5  14% 6 - 15 5 - 8 C -0 C -0 D A D C -0 C C+ D
 Wed, Feb 11 196 @Jacksonville St. W 69 - 64 30% +0  35% 7 - 15 6 - 8 B- +6 B +7 A+ F D C +0 F C- A
 Sat, Feb 14 107 Liberty L 64 - 73 30% -2  27% 7 - 16 6 - 9 D+ -8 D -5 B D- D+ D+ -4 C C D
 Sat, Feb 21 163 @New Mexico St. L 63 - 67 25% -3  26% 7 - 17 6 - 10 C -1 C +0 D- D+ A C- -2 B- C- F
 Thu, Feb 26 167 @Middle Tennessee L 65 - 72 25%
 Sat, Feb 28 147 @Western Kentucky L 67 - 75 22%
 Thu, Mar 5 165 Kennesaw St. L 74 - 75 46%
 Sat, Mar 7 196 Jacksonville St. W 67 - 66 53%
Totals 8 - 20 7 - 13 -4 D+ -4 C C- F+ C -1 C D D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C+ D- C C- 30% 49% 40% F+ D+ D+ C- D+ C D D D C C D+ C C- 36% 23% 40% B- C D C D+ C+ D- C D
1.03 60% 31% 34% -1 -2 0.96 27% 1.0 .26 17% .27 69% .18 1.09 58% 41% 34% +1 0 1.02 34% 1.0 .35 18% .36 73% .19
Nov
11		 Loyola Marymount F F F A+ D+ 22% 43% 35% F D- F+ F F B+ F+ C+ F+ D F+ B F F 30% 20% 50% C- F F F F A+ A+ F A+
0.92 27% 27% 44% -6 -4 0.82 23% 0.8 .18 13% .22 75% .16 1.13 69% 33% 45% +11 -1 1.23 36% 1.4 .52 30% .11 80% .09
Nov
15		 Utah St. F A+ F F F 36% 32% 32% D F F+ B+ D+ D B+ F D A F D+ A+ B+ 39% 12% 49% B- B+ F A+ C A+ F A F
0.75 69% 14% 14% -13 -2 0.73 23% 1.1 .26 24% .36 53% .19 1.10 75% 40% 25% 0 +1 1.05 47% 0.9 .43 25% .71 64% .45
Nov
24		 William & Mary F D- F F F 37% 21% 42% D+ F D+ A B- D+ D+ D D A- C- D C C 43% 14% 43% C+ C D A+ B- A+ D+ B+ C
0.85 52% 25% 17% -16 0 0.70 28% 1.3 .35 20% .26 67% .17 1.00 62% 43% 33% +2 +1 1.08 30% 0.9 .27 26% .36 70% .26
Nov
25		 UAB D- C C- B- C+ 23% 27% 50% F+ C F D F+ F+ B+ C B+ D- D A+ A+ B 48% 33% 20% B B F A- F C- F D+ F
0.93 60% 33% 36% +1 -2 1.00 16% 0.8 .13 21% .30 73% .22 1.19 64% 20% 22% -7 -1 0.87 54% 0.9 .46 11% .61 74% .45
Dec
7		 Seattle B A+ C- F A- 33% 31% 37% F+ B D A+ B- C+ D- D+ D- D- A+ F F F+ 36% 18% 47% C+ D- F F F C+ F C- F
1.03 76% 38% 26% +2 -2 1.02 26% 1.3 .32 20% .24 69% .17 1.13 44% 63% 43% +5 0 1.13 32% 1.1 .35 18% .44 71% .31
Dec
13		 Hawaii C- F F C- D 35% 27% 37% D- D C- A+ A+ B F F F B- A+ F C A- 52% 9% 39% F B+ A+ D A- F D+ F F+
0.95 44% 29% 32% -9 -1 0.82 24% 1.8 .43 14% .18 50% .09 1.03 42% 50% 33% -8 +3 0.91 21% 1.1 .24 12% .39 82% .32
Dec
21		 Norfolk St. F+ A+ F D C- 36% 18% 46% D C- B+ F+ C F A+ F D- D+ A F F F+ 38% 24% 38% C- F+ C A+ A- B F B- F
1.02 78% 22% 30% +2 0 1.06 39% 0.9 .34 23% .50 44% .22 1.04 41% 64% 41% +4 -1 1.09 30% 0.7 .21 22% .55 63% .35
Dec
22		 North Dakota St. C C+ B+ A+ B 22% 40% 38% F C+ B- D+ C C A+ B- A+ A- D+ F A+ C- 36% 32% 32% B C A+ A A+ A+ F C F
1.12 64% 45% 42% +9 -4 1.12 32% 0.8 .26 19% .38 76% .29 0.97 63% 71% 14% +3 -2 1.05 22% 0.8 .19 24% .40 71% .29
Dec
29		 Louisiana Tech D+ F F+ F+ F+ 17% 22% 61% F F A B- A F C+ A+ B F A+ F F F 36% 17% 48% C- F B- A+ A+ F F B+ F
0.98 38% 30% 29% -10 -2 0.78 42% 1.1 .47 23% .32 81% .26 1.17 27% 57% 55% +7 0 1.17 32% 0.4 .14 14% .61 59% .36
Jan
2		 Missouri St. F+ F A D- D 18% 49% 33% F F+ B+ F D+ D+ A- F C+ F F F+ D- F 23% 36% 41% A F+ F F F C F F F
0.95 43% 47% 31% 0 -5 0.92 39% 0.8 .29 19% .43 65% .28 1.36 78% 43% 38% +8 -3 1.13 48% 1.7 .80 17% .54 73% .40
Jan
4		 Florida International D- F F+ B- F+ 35% 17% 48% D+ D- D+ F F+ B F A+ D- D+ F+ D- A+ C 53% 16% 31% F+ C- F F F C+ F B+ F
0.96 39% 33% 36% -6 0 0.90 32% 0.8 .24 18% .22 83% .18 1.14 67% 43% 21% -1 +2 1.04 39% 1.3 .52 18% .49 63% .31
Jan
8		 Middle Tennessee B- B F B+ C- 28% 40% 32% F D A- A A+ B+ A+ F+ A+ D+ F A+ D C- 26% 30% 44% A C A F B- C+ D+ F F
1.16 64% 25% 38% -2 -3 0.92 34% 1.3 .45 13% .58 69% .40 1.12 79% 25% 38% +4 -2 1.06 22% 1.1 .25 17% .29 88% .25
Jan
10		 Western Kentucky F A+ F F F 17% 38% 45% F F C- F F F C+ A B+ B- B F+ A- C- 41% 31% 27% A- C+ F+ A+ B C F+ A+ C+
0.82 88% 22% 24% -8 -4 0.79 27% 0.4 .11 22% .42 77% .32 1.00 48% 44% 29% -5 -1 0.90 39% 0.7 .27 15% .38 59% .22
Jan
15		 Delaware C+ A F+ C- C+ 33% 24% 44% C C+ F A+ D- A+ F F F D+ A+ A F A 37% 23% 40% C+ A F F F F F B+ F
1.14 72% 31% 33% +2 -1 1.05 18% 1.3 .24 6% .16 67% .10 1.12 38% 30% 41% -5 0 0.91 30% 1.4 .41 13% .39 71% .28
Jan
17		 Liberty C+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 23% 44% D+ A+ F F F D- F F F D- F F C+ F 52% 8% 40% C F+ C C C F+ A- F C+
1.11 63% 64% 48% +16 -1 1.33 14% 1.0 .14 21% .08 50% .04 1.29 81% 50% 35% +13 +3 1.34 18% 1.0 .18 10% .20 82% .16
Jan
22		 Florida International B- B+ C+ A A 32% 26% 42% F+ B+ D- A+ C+ D D- C D- C- F+ C+ F F 38% 36% 26% A+ F+ C+ A+ A- C+ F B+ F
1.16 65% 43% 41% +8 -1 1.15 29% 1.3 .39 22% .25 71% .18 1.07 67% 35% 50% +8 -2 1.15 31% 0.8 .25 18% .46 63% .29
Jan
24		 Missouri St. F C F A+ D- 22% 41% 37% F+ D- F F F B- F C F B+ F A- A+ B+ 30% 28% 43% C+ B A+ F D+ A+ F F F
0.88 64% 20% 44% 0 -4 0.94 9% 0.0 .00 15% .28 73% .20 0.96 75% 27% 24% -5 -1 0.90 21% 1.8 .38 23% .46 74% .34
Jan
28		 Louisiana Tech F F F C F 29% 27% 44% F+ F F+ F+ F C+ B A+ A+ D- A+ F F F+ 38% 30% 32% B+ D- F+ D+ D- A+ F F F
0.91 43% 15% 33% -11 -1 0.77 24% 0.9 .22 17% .35 89% .32 1.07 39% 57% 40% +1 -1 1.02 41% 0.8 .34 25% .37 78% .29
Jan
31		 Delaware C- B+ F A+ C- 27% 42% 31% F D B F D+ A A+ C A+ A F A+ A+ A+ 27% 22% 51% B A+ F A+ D- A F F F
1.12 67% 21% 43% -1 -4 0.93 35% 0.8 .27 10% .44 80% .36 0.88 73% 11% 10% -21 -1 0.59 39% 0.6 .25 22% .60 93% .56
Feb
4		 Sam Houston St. D- D- A- F D+ 29% 41% 31% F D- F F F A+ F C+ F A A A+ A+ A+ 47% 16% 37% D A+ C D- D+ C F F+ F
0.95 53% 46% 22% -4 -3 0.88 19% 0.8 .14 9% .22 71% .16 1.00 48% 13% 22% -15 +1 0.73 36% 1.1 .40 17% .47 78% .36
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 New Mexico St. C B- F D+ D 23% 26% 51% D- D B+ B A D A+ F A+ C B+ B F C 38% 29% 33% C- C B- C- C+ D D A+ C
1.12 62% 20% 31% -6 -2 0.86 38% 1.3 .49 17% .56 68% .39 1.08 50% 33% 43% 0 -1 1.00 30% 1.0 .30 12% .32 61% .20
Feb
11		 Jacksonville St. B C+ B A+ A+ 24% 17% 59% D A+ D+ F F D B+ D B C D C+ F F 37% 22% 41% A F D+ C C- A B+ A+ A
1.15 60% 43% 46% +12 -1 1.24 25% 0.7 .18 18% .39 74% .29 1.07 60% 33% 47% +8 0 1.17 31% 1.0 .31 22% .30 57% .17
Feb
14		 Liberty D A+ F A+ A- 28% 34% 38% F B F+ B D- D+ C- C- C- D+ F C- C+ C- 37% 10% 53% A- C F+ A+ C D F+ A+ C-
1.04 69% 31% 44% +7 -2 1.11 23% 1.3 .31 20% .22 73% .16 1.19 78% 40% 35% +8 +1 1.20 24% 0.8 .18 11% .33 56% .18
Feb
21		 New Mexico St. C B- B+ F D 27% 25% 48% D D- C- D+ D+ A F A F C- C B C+ B- 26% 34% 40% A- B- D C+ C- F A+ C+ A+
1.08 62% 42% 22% -7 -1 0.85 29% 1.1 .32 10% .25 85% .21 1.15 57% 33% 33% -2 -3 0.92 36% 0.9 .33 7% .13 71% .09



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.4 0.4 3rd
4th 0.4 0.9 1.3 4th
5th 2.4 0.4 2.8 5th
6th 0.1 4.8 0.1 5.0 6th
7th 2.3 3.7 0.0 5.9 7th
8th 0.5 11.7 0.9 13.2 8th
9th 0.1 5.6 13.6 0.1 19.4 9th
10th 1.7 16.1 4.3 22.1 10th
11th 9.5 13.7 0.4 23.6 11th
12th 5.0 1.3 6.3 12th
Total 16.2 37.4 32.4 12.2 1.8 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 1.8% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.7
9-11 12.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 12.0
8-12 32.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.3 32.0
7-13 37.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.3 37.1
6-14 16.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 16.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 16.0 99.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 16.0 3.4 96.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 10.9%