UTEP
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.5 #257
Expected Predictive Rating -7.5 #288
Pace 63.8 #311
Improvement +1.6 #118

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #282 D+ D+ C D F+
Defense #212 C- D+ B- F+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #347 1.20 #118 -4.1 #313
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #21 0.59 #353 +1.5 #97
Three Pointers 39% #226 1.02 #175 -1.0 #218
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #290 -3.6 #286
Freethrows 0.27 #295 69% #290 0.18 #313
Second Chance 26.4% #297 1.01 #205 0.27 #279
Turnovers 16.7% #182
Total Offense -4.3 #282

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #235 1.19 #222 +0.5 #157
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #84 0.87 #326 -2.0 #320
Three Pointers 40% #220 1.01 #175 +0.6 #155
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #219 -0.8 #208
Freethrows 0.38 #349 74% #267 0.28 #353
Second Chance 34.0% #310 1.03 #180 0.35 #273
Turnovers 18.3% #83
Total Defense -1.1 #212

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.8% #352 -1.0% #91
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.6% #235 3.4% #247
Possession Length 18.6 #315 17.2 #180
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #148 0.18 #204
Improvement +0.5 #149 +1.1 #117

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.8% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.8% 10.6% 1.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.6% 6.5% 20.3%
First Four0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Away) - 12.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 33 - 103 - 15
Quad 45 - 68 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 170 Loyola Marymount L 58 - 71 44% -3  0 - 1 -17 -8 D F A- -11 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 38 @Utah St. L 51 - 75 3% -12  0 - 2 -7 -13 F D+ D+ +5 B- C+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 150 William & Mary L 63 - 74 28% -8  0 - 3 -10 -13 F B- C- +3 C C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 120 UAB L 59 - 75 21% -7  0 - 4 -13 -6 C F+ F+ -9 B F C-
 Sun, Dec 7 124 @Seattle L 68 - 75 16% -1  0 - 5 -2 +8 B- B- B- -10 D F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 102 @Hawaii L 61 - 66 11% +2  0 - 6 +3 +1 D+ A B +1 B+ B+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 307 Norfolk St. L 71 - 72 73% -3  0 - 7 -13 -5 C- C F -7 F B+ B-
 Mon, Dec 22 139 North Dakota St. W 76 - 66 36% +3  1 - 7 +8 +4 C C C +5 C A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 215 @Louisiana Tech L 63 - 75 31% -11  1 - 8 0 - 1 -12 -2 F+ B+ F -12 F A+ D-
 Fri, Jan 2 182 @Missouri St. L 55 - 79 25% -16  1 - 9 0 - 2 -23 -6 D- D D+ -22 D- F C
 Sun, Jan 4 188 @Florida International L 64 - 76 26% -2  1 - 10 0 - 3 -11 -5 D- F B -7 C- F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 154 Middle Tennessee W 83 - 80 OT 41% -5  2 - 10 1 - 3 -0 +8 D+ A+ B+ -8 C C C
 Sat, Jan 10 156 Western Kentucky L 56 - 68 41% -0  2 - 11 1 - 4 -15 -15 F F+ F -0 C B- C
 Thu, Jan 15 286 @Delaware W 70 - 69 45% -2  3 - 11 2 - 4 -3 +6 C D+ A+ -9 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 89 @Liberty L 69 - 80 9% -7  3 - 12 2 - 5 -2 +7 A+ F D- -10 F+ C D-
 Thu, Jan 22 188 Florida International W 83 - 77 48% +5  4 - 12 3 - 5 +1 +6 B+ C D+ -5 D- B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 182 Missouri St. L 57 - 62 46% +2  4 - 13 3 - 6 -10 -13 D F B +3 B+ C- A
 Wed, Jan 28 215 Louisiana Tech L 59 - 69 53% -6  4 - 14 3 - 7 -16 -9 F F C -8 F+ D A+
 Sat, Jan 31 286 Delaware W 70 - 55 68% +2  5 - 14 4 - 7 +5 +2 D C A +5 A+ D- B+
 Wed, Feb 4 108 @Sam Houston St. L 67 - 79 12%
 Sat, Feb 7 167 New Mexico St. L 68 - 70 43%
 Wed, Feb 11 191 @Jacksonville St. L 63 - 69 27%
 Sat, Feb 14 89 Liberty L 64 - 73 21%
 Sat, Feb 21 167 @New Mexico St. L 65 - 73 24%
 Thu, Feb 26 154 @Middle Tennessee L 63 - 71 22%
 Sat, Feb 28 156 @Western Kentucky L 67 - 75 21%
 Thu, Mar 5 142 Kennesaw St. L 72 - 76 38%
 Sat, Mar 7 191 Jacksonville St. L 65 - 66 48%
Totals 8 - 20 7 - 13 -5 -4 D+ D+ C -1 C- D+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 4th
5th 0.2 0.9 0.1 1.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 0.9 0.1 2.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 2.9 0.3 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 4.9 2.0 0.1 8.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 7.9 6.7 0.5 16.9 9th
10th 0.1 2.1 10.5 10.7 2.0 0.0 25.4 10th
11th 3.1 12.8 13.7 3.4 0.1 33.1 11th
12th 3.0 3.5 1.3 0.1 7.8 12th
Total 6.1 18.5 27.1 23.3 15.1 7.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.4% 3.4% 3.4% 15.0 0.0 0.4
10-10 2.3% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.3
9-11 7.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 7.0
8-12 15.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 15.0
7-13 23.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 23.2
6-14 27.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 27.0
5-15 18.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.5
4-16 6.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.1
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.5%