UTEP
Conference USA
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#139
Expected Predictive Rating+5.1#100
Pace71.4#105
Improvement+3.4#26

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#206
First Shot+0.5#158
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#289
Layup/Dunks-0.3#196
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#200
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#197
Freethrows+1.8#76
Improvement+2.4#39

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#107
First Shot+3.6#71
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#273
Layups/Dunks+4.4#45
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#165
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#77
Freethrows-3.4#348
Improvement+1.0#114
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.9% 8.7% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 13.0
.500 or above 77.1% 87.1% 67.4%
.500 or above in Conference 58.5% 71.6% 45.9%
Conference Champion 6.8% 11.0% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 6.0% 2.8% 9.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round6.9% 8.7% 5.2%
Second Round0.8% 1.1% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Home) - 48.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 38 - 69 - 12
Quad 47 - 117 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 145   @ Utah Valley L 60-89 41%     0 - 1 -25.5 -14.1 -8.6
  Nov 20, 2024 146   @ UC Santa Barbara W 79-76 42%     1 - 1 +6.5 +10.2 -3.6
  Nov 25, 2024 162   San Jose St. L 65-71 56%     1 - 2 -6.1 -8.0 +1.7
  Nov 26, 2024 258   Long Beach St. W 70-44 74%     2 - 2 +20.7 -3.4 +25.2
  Nov 27, 2024 161   UNC Greensboro W 64-58 55%     3 - 2 +5.9 +1.7 +5.1
  Dec 07, 2024 143   Seattle W 88-72 63%     4 - 2 +13.8 +15.0 -0.9
  Dec 11, 2024 45   @ Louisville L 74-77 12%     4 - 3 +11.1 +7.2 +3.8
  Dec 16, 2024 285   Tarleton St. W 67-62 85%     5 - 3 -4.7 -1.4 -2.9
  Dec 20, 2024 309   Jackson St. W 67-61 88%     6 - 3 -5.2 -6.0 +1.0
  Dec 21, 2024 98   Yale W 75-74 47%     7 - 3 +3.0 +1.8 +1.2
  Jan 02, 2025 103   Louisiana Tech L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 04, 2025 140   Sam Houston St. W 77-74 62%    
  Jan 11, 2025 201   New Mexico St. W 73-67 72%    
  Jan 16, 2025 73   @ Liberty L 62-71 20%    
  Jan 18, 2025 262   @ Florida International W 74-70 63%    
  Jan 23, 2025 152   Jacksonville St. W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 25, 2025 194   Kennesaw St. W 81-75 71%    
  Jan 30, 2025 108   @ Western Kentucky L 73-79 29%    
  Feb 01, 2025 129   @ Middle Tennessee L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 201   @ New Mexico St. W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 13, 2025 262   Florida International W 77-67 81%    
  Feb 15, 2025 73   Liberty L 65-68 38%    
  Feb 20, 2025 194   @ Kennesaw St. L 77-78 50%    
  Feb 22, 2025 152   @ Jacksonville St. L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 27, 2025 108   Western Kentucky W 76-75 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 129   Middle Tennessee W 73-71 59%    
  Mar 06, 2025 140   @ Sam Houston St. L 74-77 40%    
  Mar 08, 2025 103   @ Louisiana Tech L 66-72 29%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 1.9 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.1 3.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.3 3.2 0.6 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.3 6.4 3.2 0.5 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.9 6.6 3.4 0.4 0.0 13.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.3 3.6 0.4 0.0 12.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.2 3.3 0.4 0.0 11.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.0 2.7 0.4 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.7 5.1 8.0 10.8 13.2 14.3 13.6 11.2 8.8 5.4 3.2 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 97.9% 0.5    0.4 0.0
15-3 88.8% 1.2    0.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 66.9% 2.1    1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 34.3% 1.9    0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0
12-6 10.2% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.8% 6.8 3.7 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 45.2% 41.1% 4.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.0%
16-2 0.5% 25.8% 25.8% 11.6 0.1 0.1 0.4
15-3 1.3% 25.6% 25.6% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.0
14-4 3.2% 21.1% 21.1% 12.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.5
13-5 5.4% 14.5% 14.5% 12.3 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.6
12-6 8.8% 13.6% 13.6% 12.6 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.6
11-7 11.2% 9.7% 9.7% 12.8 0.3 0.6 0.1 10.1
10-8 13.6% 7.7% 7.7% 13.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 12.6
9-9 14.3% 5.1% 5.1% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 13.6
8-10 13.2% 3.8% 3.8% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 12.7
7-11 10.8% 2.1% 2.1% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.5
6-12 8.0% 1.3% 1.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.9
5-13 5.1% 0.9% 0.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 5.0
4-14 2.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.7
3-15 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.6 2.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 93.1 0.0%