UTEP
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.7 #244
Expected Predictive Rating -8.0 #287
Pace 63.6 #323
Improvement +0.2 #170

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #263 D C C F F
Defense #223 D+ D B F C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #355 1.15 #188 -5.4 #338
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #27 0.65 #306 +2.2 #72
Three Pointers 40% #194 1.01 #193 -0.4 #200
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #278 -3.7 #278
Freethrows 14.9 #303 66% #335 9.8 #329
Second Chance 29.4% #227 1.09 #131 0.32 #175
Turnovers 16.9% #203
Total Offense -3.1 #263

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #226 1.14 #152 +1.2 #134
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #157 0.91 #348 -1.8 #305
Three Pointers 42% #159 1.06 #250 -1.4 #242
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #248 -2.1 #247
Freethrows 22.4 #350 74% #243 16.6 #15
Second Chance 33.8% #289 1.09 #236 0.37 #287
Turnovers 18.7% #66
Total Defense -1.6 #223

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.9% #353 -0.3% #137
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.6% #226 4.6% #266
Possession Length 18.6 #316 17.6 #242
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #215 0.17 #157
Improvement +1.5 #86 -1.3 #263

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.4% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 0.9% 1.8% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 14.4% 23.1% 7.5%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 26.0% 16.3% 33.6%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
First Round0.8% 1.1% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Home) - 43.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 34 - 104 - 16
Quad 45 - 59 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 122 Loyola Marymount L 58 - 71 35%  -3  0 - 1 -14 -7 D F A+ -9 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 35 @Utah St. L 51 - 75 3%  -12  0 - 2 -7 -13 F D+ D +5 A- B- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 127 William & Mary L 63 - 74 26%  -8  0 - 3 -9 -11 F C+ C +3 C B A+
 Tue, Nov 25 113 UAB L 59 - 75 21%  -7  0 - 4 -12 -6 C F F -8 B F D+
 Sun, Dec 7 120 @Seattle L 68 - 75 17%  -1  0 - 5 -1 +6 B- C C+ -7 D- F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 98 @Hawaii L 61 - 66 12%  +2  0 - 6 +3 +2 C- A+ B +1 B+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 272 Norfolk St. L 71 - 72 68%  -3  0 - 7 -10 -4 C+ C+ F -7 F B+ A
 Mon, Dec 22 146 North Dakota St. W 76 - 66 40%  +3  1 - 7 +8 +4 C C C +4 D A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 228 @Louisiana Tech L 63 - 75 35%  -11  1 - 8 0 - 1 -13 -1 F A+ F -13 F A+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 192 @Missouri St. L 55 - 79 29%  -16  1 - 9 0 - 2 -23 -5 F D+ D -23 F F C
 Sun, Jan 4 164 @Florida International L 64 - 76 25%  -2  1 - 10 0 - 3 -10 -5 D- F B -5 C F B
 Thu, Jan 8 123 Middle Tennessee W 83 - 80 OT 35%  -5  2 - 10 1 - 3 +2 +8 C A+ A+ -6 A- C B-
 Sat, Jan 10 155 Western Kentucky L 73 - 75 44% 
 Thu, Jan 15 277 @Delaware L 64 - 65 46% 
 Sat, Jan 17 99 @Liberty L 63 - 76 11% 
 Thu, Jan 22 164 Florida International L 74 - 75 46% 
 Sat, Jan 24 192 Missouri St. W 67 - 66 51% 
 Wed, Jan 28 228 Louisiana Tech W 64 - 62 58% 
 Sat, Jan 31 277 Delaware W 67 - 62 67% 
 Wed, Feb 4 134 @Sam Houston St. L 69 - 78 20% 
 Sat, Feb 7 136 New Mexico St. L 68 - 71 38% 
 Wed, Feb 11 208 @Jacksonville St. L 63 - 68 32% 
 Sat, Feb 14 99 Liberty L 66 - 73 27% 
 Sat, Feb 21 136 @New Mexico St. L 65 - 74 20% 
 Thu, Feb 26 123 @Middle Tennessee L 64 - 74 18% 
 Sat, Feb 28 155 @Western Kentucky L 70 - 78 24% 
 Thu, Mar 5 162 Kennesaw St. L 74 - 75 45% 
 Sat, Mar 7 208 Jacksonville St. W 66 - 65 53% 
Totals 8 - 20 7 - 13 -5 -3 D C C -2 D+ D B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.6 0.1 2.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 1.5 0.2 4.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 3.0 0.4 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.6 1.4 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 5.4 3.3 0.2 10.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 5.6 5.7 0.7 0.0 13.3 9th
10th 0.2 1.7 6.0 7.5 1.8 0.1 17.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.7 7.2 7.3 2.4 0.2 0.0 20.3 11th
12th 0.3 1.4 3.7 5.2 4.1 1.4 0.2 16.2 12th
Total 0.3 1.4 4.1 8.0 13.1 16.0 16.9 14.8 11.1 7.4 4.0 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 54.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 5.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.3% 7.3% 7.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-7 0.7% 7.6% 7.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
12-8 1.9% 6.5% 6.5% 15.2 0.1 0.0 1.8
11-9 4.0% 3.8% 3.8% 15.7 0.1 0.1 3.8
10-10 7.4% 2.3% 2.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 7.2
9-11 11.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 11.0
8-12 14.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 14.6
7-13 16.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 16.8
6-14 16.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 15.9
5-15 13.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.0
4-16 8.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.0
3-17 4.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.1
2-18 1.4% 1.4
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 15.7 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%