Villanova
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.2 #31
Expected Predictive Rating +16.7 #23
Pace 60.7 #358
Improvement +1.4 #105

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #35 A- B B D+ C+
Defense #33 B B- B+ A+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #290 1.31 #43 +0.4 #160
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #291 0.74 #188 -2.1 #280
Three Pointers 50% #23 1.15 #27 +8.3 #7
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #33 +6.5 #33
Freethrows 16.0 #255 75% #106 12.0 #264
Second Chance 37.1% #30 1.04 #197 0.38 #67
Turnovers 15.0% #85
Total Offense +7.8 #35

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #197 1.03 #43 +2.7 #87
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #43 0.74 #161 -1.9 #315
Three Pointers 36% #309 0.99 #157 +2.9 #79
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #69 +3.7 #69
Freethrows 12.6 #15 65% #7 8.2 #358
Second Chance 30.4% #162 0.93 #47 0.28 #88
Turnovers 19.5% #47
Total Defense +6.4 #33

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #138 -1.4% #67
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.9% #30 -5.9% #77
Possession Length 18.1 #262 18.8 #353
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #211 0.10 #17
Improvement +0.5 #154 +0.9 #123

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 7.4% 8.9% 3.0%
Top 6 Seed 31.0% 35.2% 19.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 87.9% 90.4% 80.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 86.3% 89.1% 78.6%
Average Seed 7.3 7.1 8.0
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 95.4% 97.5% 89.2%
Conference Champion 7.0% 8.5% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four4.9% 3.9% 7.6%
First Round85.5% 88.6% 76.5%
Second Round51.9% 55.2% 42.4%
Sweet Sixteen16.9% 18.3% 12.8%
Elite Eight5.6% 6.1% 4.1%
Final Four1.9% 2.0% 1.3%
Championship Game0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Marquette (Away) - 74.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 26 - 311 - 9
Quad 38 - 019 - 10
Quad 44 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 8 BYU L 66 - 71 28%  -6  0 - 1 +15 +4 F A+ B+ +11 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 207 Queens W 94 - 74 96%  +12  1 - 1 +14 +16 C A+ B+ -1 F A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 285 Sacred Heart W 94 - 60 98%  +21  2 - 1 +24 +20 A+ B F +6 C- C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 129 Duquesne W 87 - 77 92%  +6  3 - 1 +9 +12 D A+ D- -4 F A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 217 @La Salle W 70 - 55 90%  +11  4 - 1 +15 +10 A+ D- F +8 D+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 250 Old Dominion W 89 - 75 97%  +6  5 - 1 +6 +17 A+ B+ A -10 D F D+
 Mon, Dec 1 143 Temple W 74 - 56 93%  +5  6 - 1 +16 +13 C B- C- +7 A+ B- A+
 Sat, Dec 6 216 Penn W 90 - 63 94%  +15  7 - 1 +24 +20 A+ C C +6 B- B- A
 Tue, Dec 9 1 @Michigan L 61 - 89 8%  -23  7 - 2 +2 -1 B D- C- +6 A+ C B
 Sat, Dec 13 82 Pittsburgh W 79 - 61 83%  +6  8 - 2 +22 +24 A+ B A+ +2 A+ F A+
 Fri, Dec 19 43 Wisconsin W 76 - 66 OT 59%  +7  9 - 2 +22 +10 D+ A+ A+ +12 A- D+ A+
 Tue, Dec 23 53 @Seton Hall W 64 - 56 55%  +8  10 - 2 1 - 0 +21 +9 A+ A F +13 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 102 DePaul W 71 - 66 87%  -2  11 - 2 2 - 0 +7 +6 C+ F A+ +1 B C- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 57 @Butler W 85 - 67 57%  +3  12 - 2 3 - 0 +30 +16 A+ C- C+ +14 A+ F A
 Wed, Jan 7 37 Creighton L 72 - 76 65%  +2  12 - 3 3 - 1 +6 +12 B+ B- A+ -6 D+ D+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 110 @Marquette W 74 - 67 75% 
 Tue, Jan 13 66 @Providence W 78 - 76 59% 
 Sat, Jan 17 21 St. John's W 72 - 71 54% 
 Wed, Jan 21 103 Georgetown W 77 - 65 88% 
 Sat, Jan 24 5 @Connecticut L 62 - 72 16% 
 Fri, Jan 30 66 Providence W 81 - 73 78% 
 Wed, Feb 4 53 Seton Hall W 68 - 61 74% 
 Sat, Feb 7 103 @Georgetown W 74 - 68 72% 
 Tue, Feb 10 110 Marquette W 77 - 64 88% 
 Sat, Feb 14 37 @Creighton L 69 - 71 42% 
 Tue, Feb 17 97 @Xavier W 74 - 68 71% 
 Sat, Feb 21 5 Connecticut L 65 - 69 35% 
 Wed, Feb 25 57 Butler W 77 - 69 76% 
 Sat, Feb 28 21 @St. John's L 69 - 74 32% 
 Wed, Mar 4 102 @DePaul W 70 - 64 72% 
 Sat, Mar 7 97 Xavier W 77 - 65 86% 
Totals 22 - 9 13 - 7 +14 +8 A- B B +6 B B- B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.4 2.4 0.9 0.2 7.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.6 7.2 10.1 5.8 1.5 0.0 27.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.5 10.3 8.9 3.2 0.3 28.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.8 7.8 5.6 1.3 0.1 20.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.0 3.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.6 0.7 0.0 3.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.9 5.9 10.4 14.9 18.8 17.5 14.4 8.5 3.9 0.9 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 96.2% 0.9    0.7 0.2
17-3 62.6% 2.4    1.4 1.0 0.0
16-4 28.2% 2.4    0.9 1.2 0.3
15-5 6.9% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1
14-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.0% 7.0 3.3 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 34.3% 65.7% 2.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.9% 100.0% 29.9% 70.1% 3.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.9% 99.9% 23.3% 76.5% 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-4 8.5% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.8 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 14.4% 99.5% 17.3% 82.2% 6.1 0.2 1.2 3.4 4.5 3.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 99.4%
14-6 17.5% 98.2% 12.1% 86.1% 7.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.9 5.2 3.7 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.3 98.0%
13-7 18.8% 94.3% 9.6% 84.7% 8.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 3.9 5.0 4.1 1.9 0.3 1.1 93.7%
12-8 14.9% 86.8% 6.7% 80.1% 8.8 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.1 3.9 3.1 0.9 0.0 2.0 85.9%
11-9 10.4% 74.5% 5.9% 68.6% 9.5 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.2 2.7 1.4 0.0 2.7 72.9%
10-10 5.9% 58.7% 3.6% 55.1% 10.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.2 2.5 57.2%
9-11 2.9% 30.3% 2.1% 28.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.0 2.0 28.8%
8-12 1.1% 6.1% 1.8% 4.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.5%
7-13 0.4% 0.4
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 87.9% 11.3% 76.6% 7.3 12.1 86.3%