Villanova
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.4#52
Expected Predictive Rating+4.2#109
Pace60.8#350
Improvement+4.1#17

Offense
Total Offense+10.1#9
First Shot+10.0#6
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#178
Layup/Dunks-0.8#213
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#84
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.7#7
Freethrows+0.4#149
Improvement+4.6#2

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#156
First Shot-0.4#184
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#124
Layups/Dunks+3.3#63
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#337
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#276
Freethrows+1.1#104
Improvement-0.5#225
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.9% 3.2% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.3% 34.6% 18.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 22.3% 30.2% 15.3%
Average Seed 9.2 9.0 9.6
.500 or above 73.4% 84.2% 63.6%
.500 or above in Conference 58.1% 70.9% 46.5%
Conference Champion 2.5% 4.1% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 0.8% 3.8%
First Four5.7% 6.6% 4.8%
First Round23.5% 31.5% 16.3%
Second Round11.4% 15.6% 7.5%
Sweet Sixteen3.1% 4.5% 1.9%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.7% 0.8%
Final Four0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Butler (Away) - 47.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 8
Quad 25 - 48 - 13
Quad 34 - 213 - 15
Quad 45 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 267   Lafayette W 75-63 95%     1 - 0 +3.3 +1.3 +2.4
  Nov 06, 2024 179   Columbia L 80-90 90%     1 - 1 -13.9 +6.2 -20.5
  Nov 08, 2024 352   NJIT W 91-54 98%     2 - 1 +21.4 +28.0 -0.7
  Nov 12, 2024 86   @ Saint Joseph's L 76-83 53%     2 - 2 +2.6 +3.6 -0.5
  Nov 15, 2024 92   Virginia L 60-70 68%     2 - 3 -4.4 +0.6 -6.2
  Nov 19, 2024 292   Penn W 93-49 96%     3 - 3 +34.0 +21.4 +16.2
  Nov 24, 2024 13   Maryland L 75-76 29%     3 - 4 +15.0 +20.7 -5.8
  Nov 27, 2024 303   Rider W 72-48 96%     4 - 4 +13.2 +6.6 +11.0
  Dec 03, 2024 26   Cincinnati W 68-60 47%     5 - 4 +19.0 +16.4 +4.3
  Dec 07, 2024 124   Temple W 94-65 78%     6 - 4 +31.3 +33.2 +1.2
  Dec 11, 2024 333   Fairleigh Dickinson W 86-72 98%     7 - 4 +0.8 +13.2 -11.0
  Dec 17, 2024 115   Seton Hall W 79-67 84%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +11.9 +16.9 -4.1
  Dec 21, 2024 46   @ Creighton L 79-86 36%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +6.9 +22.7 -16.7
  Jan 01, 2025 68   @ Butler L 73-74 48%    
  Jan 04, 2025 102   DePaul W 78-69 79%    
  Jan 08, 2025 10   Connecticut L 72-75 38%    
  Jan 11, 2025 15   @ St. John's L 70-78 22%    
  Jan 14, 2025 49   @ Xavier L 73-76 39%    
  Jan 17, 2025 75   Providence W 71-65 71%    
  Jan 20, 2025 67   Georgetown W 74-69 69%    
  Jan 24, 2025 17   @ Marquette L 70-78 23%    
  Feb 01, 2025 46   Creighton W 75-73 59%    
  Feb 05, 2025 102   @ DePaul W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 09, 2025 49   Xavier W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 12, 2025 15   St. John's L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 15, 2025 75   @ Providence L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 18, 2025 10   @ Connecticut L 69-78 20%    
  Feb 21, 2025 17   Marquette L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 26, 2025 115   @ Seton Hall W 66-62 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 68   Butler W 76-71 69%    
  Mar 04, 2025 67   @ Georgetown L 71-72 48%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 3.1 4.2 2.0 0.5 0.0 10.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.4 6.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 15.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.9 5.9 6.0 2.1 0.2 16.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 5.6 5.7 1.7 0.2 14.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.8 5.0 1.5 0.1 12.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.7 3.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.7 0.8 0.1 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.5 4.9 8.1 11.0 13.8 14.7 14.0 11.7 8.4 5.0 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 97.4% 0.1    0.1
17-3 91.1% 0.3    0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 63.7% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0
15-5 29.8% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 9.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.4% 100.0% 27.4% 72.6% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.2% 99.5% 22.0% 77.4% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
15-5 2.7% 95.4% 15.8% 79.6% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 94.5%
14-6 5.0% 85.9% 14.3% 71.6% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.7 83.5%
13-7 8.4% 70.4% 10.3% 60.1% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.0 0.8 0.0 2.5 67.0%
12-8 11.7% 48.3% 7.5% 40.8% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.3 1.5 0.0 6.1 44.1%
11-9 14.0% 27.4% 5.7% 21.8% 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.9 0.1 10.2 23.1%
10-10 14.7% 11.2% 3.5% 7.7% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.1 13.1 8.0%
9-11 13.8% 3.3% 2.1% 1.2% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 13.3 1.3%
8-12 11.0% 1.5% 1.4% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.9 0.1%
7-13 8.1% 1.1% 1.1% 12.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.1
6-14 4.9% 0.9% 0.9% 14.4 0.0 0.0 4.9
5-15 2.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 2.5
4-16 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-17 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 26.3% 5.2% 21.1% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.9 3.8 5.5 7.0 5.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.7 22.3%