VMI
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -14.3 #356
Expected Predictive Rating -15.1 #353
Pace 67.4 #221
Improvement -3.0 #305

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #321 F+ D C C- C
Defense #359 D- F+ C C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #345 0.97 #353 -7.5 #357
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #298 0.69 #290 -2.6 #306
Three Pointers 54% #6 0.86 #344 +2.6 #94
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #357 -7.5 #357
Freethrows 0.29 #226 70% #246 0.20 #234
Second Chance 27.4% #277 0.92 #315 0.25 #311
Turnovers 16.8% #188
Total Offense -5.8 #321

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #208 1.29 #333 -2.2 #254
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #273 0.87 #332 +0.1 #183
Three Pointers 45% #76 1.13 #334 -4.4 #339
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #349 -6.5 #350
Freethrows 0.31 #207 72% #148 0.22 #198
Second Chance 40.5% #364 1.03 #187 0.42 #354
Turnovers 16.2% #207
Total Defense -8.5 #359

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #175 0.7% #229
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -15.0% #361 12.0% #353
Possession Length 19.1 #339 15.9 #14
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #336 0.22 #333
Improvement -1.5 #277 -1.5 #266

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 99.1% 97.5% 99.6%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Home) - 21.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 80 - 12
Quad 44 - 135 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 332 @Southern Indiana W 78 - 74 26% -3  1 - 0 -4 -2 F+ D+ B -2 C- C- D-
 Sun, Nov 9 54 @Missouri L 68 - 106 1% -11  1 - 1 -25 -5 B- F F -17 B- F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 295 Jacksonville L 67 - 69 36% -3  1 - 2 -13 -6 F+ A+ F -7 F+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 19 136 @Richmond L 54 - 87 5% -21  1 - 3 -28 -14 D- D+ F -16 F D+ C
 Sat, Nov 22 329 @Stetson L 80 - 99 25% -9  1 - 4 -26 +8 D C- A+ -36 F F D-
 Mon, Nov 24 204 Buffalo L 70 - 78 14% -1  1 - 5 -11 -4 F B+ A -7 C D+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 151 Bowling Green L 48 - 81 9% -22  1 - 6 -33 -21 F F D+ -13 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 44 @Central Florida L 57 - 82 1% -9  1 - 7 -10 -9 F C- D+ -2 A- A D-
 Tue, Dec 9 318 Loyola Maryland W 86 - 70 43% +15  2 - 7 +3 +16 B+ C A+ -11 C F C-
 Sun, Dec 21 234 @Radford L 90 - 97 11% -2  2 - 8 -8 +11 C A+ C- -19 F F C+
 Thu, Jan 1 228 Samford L 58 - 78 24% -4  2 - 9 0 - 1 -27 -18 F F D+ -10 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 275 Chattanooga W 79 - 71 32% +8  3 - 9 1 - 1 -1 +2 C+ F+ D -3 B+ F+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 131 @East Tennessee St. L 67 - 81 5% -10  3 - 10 1 - 2 -9 -1 F+ F A+ -9 F C C
 Sat, Jan 10 164 @Furman L 48 - 69 7% -10  3 - 11 1 - 3 -18 -20 F D+ F +1 C+ F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 148 Mercer L 67 - 77 13% -2  3 - 12 1 - 4 -12 -5 C+ F C- -8 A- F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 344 The Citadel L 68 - 82 51% -10  3 - 13 1 - 5 -29 -10 D- F D -19 F B+ C
 Wed, Jan 21 312 UNC Greensboro L 78 - 85 41% -6  3 - 14 1 - 6 -19 +1 F A B- -21 F+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 24 277 @Western Carolina L 58 - 88 15% -12  3 - 15 1 - 7 -33 -7 F D B- -32 F F F
 Thu, Jan 29 344 @The Citadel L 56 - 80 29% -12  3 - 16 1 - 8 -33 -15 F F F+ -20 F B+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 148 @Mercer L 81 - 95 6% -4  3 - 17 1 - 9 -10 +5 C F+ B -15 D+ F D
 Wed, Feb 4 200 Wofford L 72 - 81 21%
 Sat, Feb 7 131 East Tennessee St. L 67 - 80 11%
 Wed, Feb 11 312 @UNC Greensboro L 73 - 81 21%
 Sat, Feb 14 164 Furman L 67 - 78 15%
 Wed, Feb 18 200 @Wofford L 69 - 84 9%
 Sat, Feb 21 277 Western Carolina L 77 - 82 32%
 Thu, Feb 26 228 @Samford L 69 - 83 11%
 Sat, Feb 28 275 @Chattanooga L 68 - 79 15%
Totals 4 - 24 2 - 16 -14 -6 F+ D C -9 D- F+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 1.5 0.2 2.9 9th
10th 24.9 35.5 24.4 10.1 1.3 0.0 96.2 10th
Total 24.9 35.5 24.5 11.3 3.1 0.7 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.7% 0.7
5-13 3.1% 3.1
4-14 11.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.3
3-15 24.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 24.5
2-16 35.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 35.5
1-17 24.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 24.9
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 19.6%