VMI
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -16.2 358
Results Rating -16.8 356
Pace 67.7 200
Improvement -3.2 303

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 331 F+ D- C D+ C+
Defense F 362 F F+ C- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 335 F+ 49% 353 -6.8 355
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 311 D 34% 316 -3.0 319
Three Pointers 54% 4 D- 30% 333 +3.1 81
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 151 F+ -6.8 356
1st FG Attempt F+ 0.89 349
Second Chance D 25.0% 323 D 0.91 325 D- 0.23 344
Turnovers C 16.8% 170
Freethrows D+ 0.28 251 C- 71% 218 D+ 0.20 247
Total Offense D -6.6 331

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D- 36% 340 D- 14.1% 331
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 246 F+ 9.2% 350
Three Pointers D 78% 311 C+ 0.7% 144
Total D+ 52% 262 C- 6.2% 248

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 299 F+ 67% 356 +0.7 208
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 254 F 47% 359 +0.7 247
Three Pointers 47% 25 D- 38% 340 +6.3 356
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 169 F +7.5 364
1st FG Attempt F 1.17 362
Second Chance F 38.8% 364 C 1.04 205 F+ 0.40 352
Turnovers C- 16.3% 208
Freethrows C 0.31 199 C- 73% 233 C 0.22 210
Total Defense F -9.6 362

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F+ 60% 354 D- 5.7% 349
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 51% 362 C+ 6.2% 93
Three Pointers F+ 92% 356 B- 1.4% 78
Total F 70% 362 D 3.7% 319

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.9 328 16.1 20
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 324 0.22 326
Improvement -2.0 #285 -1.2 #261

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 361 359 355
Results Rating Rank 358 356 352
Conference Record 1 - 17 1 - 17 2 - 16
Conference Finish 10 10 10
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Samford (Away) - 5.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 80 - 12
Quad 43 - 143 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 339 @Southern Indiana W 78 - 74 24% -3  9% 1 - 0 D+ -5 D- -7 F D- B+ C+ +2 C- C D-
 Sun, Nov 9 49 @Missouri L 68 - 106 1% -11  18% 1 - 1 F -24 D- -8 B- F F F -13 B F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 306 Jacksonville L 67 - 69 33% -3  11% 1 - 2 D- -14 F+ -10 F A F D+ -4 F F A+
 Wed, Nov 19 130 @Richmond L 54 - 87 4% -21  0% 1 - 3 F -28 F -17 D- D+ F F -13 F D C+
 Sat, Nov 22 326 @Stetson L 80 - 99 21% -9  2% 1 - 4 F -27 B- +4 D D+ A+ F -32 F F F+
 Mon, Nov 24 207 Buffalo L 70 - 78 11% -1  38% 1 - 5 D -11 D -6 F A- A+ D -5 C- D B-
 Wed, Nov 26 166 Bowling Green L 48 - 81 8% -22  0% 1 - 6 F -33 F -23 F F D- F -12 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 51 @Central Florida L 57 - 82 1% -9  27% 1 - 7 D- -11 F -13 F D+ D+ C+ +0 A A- D-
 Tue, Dec 9 315 Loyola Maryland W 86 - 70 36% +15  99% 2 - 7 C+ +4 A +13 A- C A+ D- -8 C F C
 Sun, Dec 21 233 @Radford L 90 - 97 9% -2  30% 2 - 8 D+ -8 B+ +9 C A+ D+ F -17 F F B-
 Thu, Jan 1 190 Samford L 58 - 78 15% -4  47% 2 - 9 0 - 1 F -25 F -19 F F D+ D- -7 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 274 Chattanooga W 79 - 71 25% +8  98% 3 - 9 1 - 1 C -1 C- -1 B- D- F+ C +0 A- D- B-
 Wed, Jan 7 131 @East Tennessee St. L 67 - 81 4% -10  1% 3 - 10 1 - 2 D -9 D+ -2 D- F A+ D- -7 F D+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 175 @Furman L 48 - 69 6% -10  12% 3 - 11 1 - 3 F -19 F -22 F C- F B- +2 C+ F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 178 Mercer L 67 - 77 13% -2  22% 3 - 12 1 - 4 D- -14 F+ -9 C+ F C- D -6 A- F A
 Sat, Jan 17 348 The Citadel L 68 - 82 50% -10  4% 3 - 13 1 - 5 F -30 F -13 F+ F D+ F -18 F A- C+
 Wed, Jan 21 301 UNC Greensboro L 78 - 85 32% -6  13% 3 - 14 1 - 6 F -18 C- -2 F A B+ F -17 D- F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 247 @Western Carolina L 58 - 88 10% -12  13% 3 - 15 1 - 7 F -32 F+ -9 F D B- F -29 F F F
 Thu, Jan 29 348 @The Citadel L 56 - 80 28% -12  7% 3 - 16 1 - 8 F -34 F -18 F F D F -19 F A- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 178 @Mercer L 81 - 95 6% -4  12% 3 - 17 1 - 9 D- -12 C +2 C F+ B F -13 D F D
 Wed, Feb 4 238 Wofford L 67 - 81 20% -12  4% 3 - 18 1 - 10 F -21 F -12 D F A- F+ -9 F A+ D-
 Sat, Feb 7 131 East Tennessee St. L 70 - 87 9% -10  5% 3 - 19 1 - 11 F -18 D- -7 D+ D+ B F -11 F F A+
 Wed, Feb 11 301 @UNC Greensboro L 71 - 92 15% -15  1% 3 - 20 1 - 12 F -26 F+ -10 D F D F -17 F D+ D
 Sat, Feb 14 175 Furman L 72 - 90 13% -12  0% 3 - 21 1 - 13 F -22 D -5 C- F A F -16 F F D
 Wed, Feb 18 238 @Wofford L 76 - 82 9% -3  33% 3 - 22 1 - 14 D+ -7 C- -1 D- C- C- D -6 F D C+
 Sat, Feb 21 247 Western Carolina L 62 - 81 21% -11  0% 3 - 23 1 - 15 F -27 F -13 D F A F -16 D+ D+ F
 Thu, Feb 26 190 @Samford L 68 - 85 5%
 Sat, Feb 28 274 @Chattanooga L 68 - 81 11%
Totals 3 - 25 1 - 17 -16 D -7 C+ F+ C+ F -10 D- C- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D F+ D D- F+ 32% 25% 54% C+ F+ D D D- C D+ C- D+ F F+ F D- F 34% 18% 47% C F F C F+ C- C C- C
0.99 49% 34% 30% -7 0 0.89 25% 0.9 .23 17% .28 71% .20 1.22 67% 47% 38% +7 0 1.17 39% 1.0 .40 16% .31 73% .21
Nov
7		 Southern Indiana D- F C F+ F 41% 14% 46% C+ F D- D- D- B+ C D- D+ C+ D- D- A+ C- 33% 20% 48% C- C- C- C+ C D- B+ F C+
1.00 46% 38% 30% -8 +1 0.88 28% 0.8 .23 13% .32 68% .22 0.95 60% 42% 21% -8 0 0.85 30% 0.8 .24 14% .25 76% .19
Nov
9		 Missouri D- F A- B B 6% 17% 77% D+ B- F F F F B+ C B+ F F+ C- A+ B 49% 16% 35% D+ B F F F D- F D+ F
0.90 0% 44% 38% +2 -2 1.02 20% 0.3 .05 22% .34 75% .26 1.40 72% 38% 22% +1 +1 1.06 50% 1.8 .88 15% .54 71% .39
Nov
15		 Jacksonville F+ F B C F+ 35% 24% 41% D- F C A+ A F F A+ F D+ F B C- F 40% 13% 47% D- F F F F A+ A- A+ A+
1.01 47% 42% 35% -2 -1 0.96 30% 1.4 .43 23% .21 82% .17 1.04 67% 33% 33% +2 +1 1.09 39% 1.3 .52 29% .21 50% .11
Nov
19		 Richmond F D A+ F F 26% 9% 65% A- D- D B- D+ F A+ F C- F C- F F F 30% 26% 44% C- F F+ C+ D C+ A A+ A+
0.82 55% 50% 25% -9 +1 0.86 25% 1.2 .31 24% .40 50% .20 1.32 63% 57% 50% +17 -1 1.33 31% 1.0 .31 15% .25 64% .16
Nov
22		 Stetson B- C- D+ C- D 36% 15% 49% C+ D C- D+ D+ A+ D+ D- D F F F F F 17% 13% 70% C F F F F F+ A+ B- A+
1.21 60% 38% 33% 0 +1 1.04 31% 1.1 .33 9% .25 67% .17 1.50 89% 57% 50% +25 -1 1.50 35% 1.4 .50 15% .16 67% .11
Nov
24		 Buffalo D D+ B F F 30% 17% 53% D+ F B- A+ A- A+ A- D- B+ D B+ F F+ C+ 45% 5% 50% F C- D- C D B- F C- F
1.05 56% 44% 18% -12 0 0.77 36% 1.2 .43 12% .34 70% .24 1.17 50% 50% 40% +1 +2 1.10 31% 1.1 .34 18% .68 76% .51
Nov
26		 Bowling Green F F F F F 40% 5% 56% A- F C+ F F D- A+ A- A+ F F F F+ F 42% 17% 42% B- F F B F A+ C+ C C+
0.72 35% 0% 8% -32 +2 0.42 30% 0.5 .14 21% .61 78% .47 1.22 70% 50% 40% +11 +1 1.25 56% 0.8 .42 24% .30 73% .22
Nov
29		 Central Florida F F F F F 27% 12% 61% B- F A F D+ D+ A C- A- C+ F A+ A+ A 36% 24% 41% B- A F A+ A- D- C F+ C-
0.84 38% 17% 27% -15 0 0.73 36% 0.6 .22 19% .38 71% .27 1.21 95% 14% 17% -3 -1 0.95 56% 0.6 .34 12% .28 82% .23
Dec
9		 Loyola Maryland A C A+ A A 35% 13% 52% B- A- C C C A+ D+ F+ D D- A+ F D+ C 47% 16% 38% C- C F D- F C F A+ D-
1.37 61% 71% 41% +11 +1 1.25 32% 1.2 .39 8% .28 69% .19 1.12 43% 57% 35% -3 +1 0.98 39% 1.1 .45 18% .44 52% .23
Dec
21		 Radford B+ D+ B+ B C 38% 19% 44% C- C C- A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F D- F F F 39% 11% 50% D F F F F B- F F F
1.23 56% 44% 38% +3 0 1.08 30% 1.9 .57 19% .47 89% .42 1.33 65% 60% 45% +14 +1 1.32 40% 1.3 .52 19% .68 80% .54
Jan
1		 Samford F A- D F F 17% 31% 52% F+ F D+ F F D+ F C F+ D- F A+ F F 31% 25% 44% B F D+ A+ A+ D+ F A+ D+
0.86 67% 35% 21% -9 -3 0.78 24% 0.7 .17 15% .21 75% .16 1.16 93% 17% 43% +11 -1 1.23 26% 0.3 .08 12% .46 59% .27
Jan
3		 Chattanooga C- A+ B- C- B- 24% 11% 65% C B- C F D- F+ A+ C+ A+ C D+ A A+ A- 33% 27% 41% B A- C F D- B- F F F
1.14 73% 40% 33% +3 0 1.09 33% 0.8 .28 17% .50 72% .36 1.02 63% 31% 25% -6 -1 0.88 21% 1.4 .29 17% .42 83% .35
Jan
7		 East Tennessee St. D+ D B+ F F+ 42% 13% 44% B- D- C- F F A+ A+ F A- D- F F D- F 43% 23% 34% B- F A- F D+ C- C- D+ D+
1.01 55% 43% 26% -6 +1 0.92 28% 0.4 .10 9% .45 63% .28 1.22 70% 55% 38% +11 0 1.23 21% 1.6 .33 15% .34 79% .27
Jan
10		 Furman F F F F F 31% 18% 51% C F C D+ C- F C+ D+ C B- C+ F+ C+ C 24% 15% 61% B+ C+ F C- F A+ F A+ D+
0.73 29% 25% 22% -21 0 0.60 30% 0.9 .28 24% .26 69% .18 1.05 60% 50% 32% 0 0 1.02 49% 1.0 .49 30% .39 56% .22
Jan
15		 Mercer F+ C+ D- A- B- 23% 17% 60% D+ C+ D F F C- F C- F D F D+ A+ A+ 47% 11% 42% F A- F C- F A F C- F
1.01 58% 33% 41% +5 -1 1.11 28% 0.5 .13 18% .07 75% .06 1.16 71% 40% 11% -8 +2 0.89 59% 1.0 .62 21% .46 75% .35
Jan
17		 The Citadel F F+ F C F 47% 2% 51% A F+ F C- F D+ A+ D- A+ F B F F F 47% 9% 44% F F D- A+ A- C+ F F F
1.00 52% 0% 35% -3 +3 1.02 18% 1.0 .18 16% .49 64% .32 1.21 50% 75% 47% +9 +2 1.23 32% 0.5 .16 19% .58 84% .49
Jan
21		 UNC Greensboro C- F A+ F F 27% 13% 60% C+ F C- A+ A B+ A+ F B F A F F D- 43% 28% 30% C D- F+ D+ F+ F F C F
1.18 50% 57% 29% -4 0 0.94 29% 1.6 .46 11% .37 59% .22 1.29 45% 46% 50% +4 -1 1.09 33% 1.1 .36 8% .54 70% .38
Jan
24		 Western Carolina F+ C+ F C- F 27% 14% 59% C F F A+ D B- F A F F D+ F F F 41% 11% 48% F+ F F D F F A+ A+ A+
1.00 62% 0% 34% -4 0 0.94 16% 1.4 .22 14% .12 83% .10 1.51 59% 50% 42% +8 +1 1.20 57% 1.1 .63 7% .06 33% .02
Jan
29		 The Citadel F F F D F 36% 14% 50% C- F F F F D F A+ D- F F B+ F F 13% 15% 73% B F F A+ A- F+ C- A+ B+
0.89 50% 14% 32% -8 +1 0.88 19% 0.7 .14 17% .19 80% .15 1.27 83% 29% 49% +18 -1 1.35 38% 0.4 .16 14% .28 47% .13
Jan
31		 Mercer C C D- C+ C 25% 5% 69% B C F C F+ B C B+ C+ F D F A- D+ 38% 9% 53% F D F F F D F D+ F
1.11 57% 33% 37% +2 +1 1.09 21% 1.0 .21 15% .26 81% .21 1.31 65% 80% 29% +2 +1 1.09 43% 1.2 .51 14% .46 76% .35
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Wofford F C- D- D+ D 42% 17% 40% C- D F F F A- C+ D- C F+ F A F F 27% 22% 51% A F A- A+ A+ D- F+ D F
0.99 55% 33% 33% -3 +1 0.98 21% 0.4 .08 12% .32 74% .23 1.20 79% 27% 42% +10 -1 1.20 22% 0.5 .11 12% .40 75% .30
Feb
7		 East Tennessee St. D- F A+ C- D 39% 6% 56% B+ D+ F A+ D+ B D+ F+ D F C- F F F 20% 31% 49% A+ F F F+ F A+ B+ F B-
0.99 48% 67% 33% -3 +2 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 17% .27 69% .19 1.23 60% 67% 46% +18 -3 1.33 40% 1.3 .52 24% .26 86% .22
Feb
11		 UNC Greensboro F+ D+ F C+ F+ 38% 7% 55% A- D F D F D F A- F F F F D F 16% 20% 64% B F D C D+ D B+ D- B-
1.03 57% 0% 37% -1 +2 1.04 20% 1.0 .20 16% .15 78% .12 1.33 89% 64% 37% +13 -1 1.25 30% 1.0 .30 13% .32 74% .23
Feb
14		 Furman D F A B- D 28% 4% 69% A- C- F F F A A- A+ A+ F F F D F 26% 8% 66% C F C- F F D D- F F+
1.01 33% 50% 35% -5 +1 0.94 21% 0.6 .12 10% .31 85% .27 1.27 85% 100% 36% +14 +1 1.32 30% 1.3 .40 17% .34 75% .25
Feb
18		 Wofford C- D C- F+ F+ 47% 15% 38% C+ D- F+ A C- C- B A+ A+ D F F D- F 31% 4% 64% D F D+ D- D C+ F C F
1.10 52% 38% 30% -5 +1 0.94 23% 1.4 .31 16% .35 95% .33 1.19 71% 100% 38% +11 +2 1.27 30% 1.1 .33 16% .48 71% .35
Feb
21		 Western Carolina F F+ F+ B D 31% 18% 51% C D F F F A F F F F D- F C+ F+ 21% 26% 53% A+ D+ B+ F D+ F C F D-
0.98 50% 33% 38% 0 0 1.02 14% 0.6 .08 11% .20 64% .12 1.28 64% 50% 32% +3 -2 1.04 29% 1.3 .37 5% .28 88% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 84.5 14.8 0.7 100.0 10th
Total 84.5 14.8 0.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 14.8% 14.8
1-17 84.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 84.5
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 69.9%