VMI
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.7 #332
Expected Predictive Rating -11.5 #327
Pace 69.3 #184
Improvement +2.3 #69

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #284 F D B C C
Defense #347 F F C- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #339 0.98 #335 -7.3 #353
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #269 0.80 #122 -1.3 #241
Three Pointers 53% #10 0.81 #351 +0.7 #153
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #354 -7.9 #355
Freethrows 17.4 #185 70% #261 12.2 #199
Second Chance 28.2% #252 0.92 #316 0.26 #295
Turnovers 15.0% #84
Total Offense -4.2 #284

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #212 1.35 #352 -3.1 #280
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #191 0.81 #266 -0.4 #216
Three Pointers 42% #142 1.12 #305 -2.9 #299
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #340 -6.4 #340
Freethrows 17.1 #173 73% #214 12.5 #172
Second Chance 37.7% #354 1.06 #210 0.40 #331
Turnovers 16.0% #216
Total Defense -6.5 #347

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #193 0.0% #167
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -15.4% #358 12.6% #348
Possession Length 18.6 #313 15.3 #6
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #337 0.25 #350
Improvement +1.3 #96 +1.0 #116

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 1.1% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 1.4% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 8.1% 23.3% 6.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 17.9% 6.8% 19.1%
First Four0.5% 1.0% 0.4%
First Round0.3% 0.8% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Away) - 9.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 47 - 108 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 333 @Southern Indiana W 78 - 74 39%  -3  1 - 0 -4 -5 F D+ B +1 C C D
 Sun, Nov 9 51 @Missouri L 68 - 106 2%  -11  1 - 1 -24 -5 B- F F -16 B F F
 Sat, Nov 15 328 Jacksonville L 67 - 69 61%  -3  1 - 2 -15 -8 F A+ F -8 F F A+
 Wed, Nov 19 115 @Richmond L 54 - 87 6%  -21  1 - 3 -26 -14 F D+ F -14 F D- D+
 Sat, Nov 22 337 @Stetson L 80 - 99 41%  -9  1 - 4 -27 +7 F D+ A+ -36 F F F
 Mon, Nov 24 179 Buffalo L 70 - 78 19%  -1  1 - 5 -9 -3 F A A+ -7 C C- B-
 Wed, Nov 26 132 Bowling Green L 48 - 81 13%  -22  1 - 6 -31 -21 F F C- -12 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 50 @Central Florida L 57 - 82 2%  -9  1 - 7 -11 -9 F D+ C- -3 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 336 Loyola Maryland W 86 - 70 63%  +15  2 - 7 +2 +14 B D+ A+ -10 C F D
 Sun, Dec 21 234 @Radford L 90 - 97 18%  -2  2 - 8 -8 +11 C+ A+ D+ -19 F F B-
 Thu, Jan 1 229 Samford L 58 - 78 35%  -4  2 - 9 0 - 1 -27 -17 F F D -10 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 273 Chattanooga W 79 - 71 45%  +8  3 - 9 1 - 1 -1 +1 C F C- -3 B+ F B-
 Wed, Jan 7 128 @East Tennessee St. L 67 - 81 8%  -10  3 - 10 1 - 2 -9 -0 F F A+ -10 F C D+
 Sat, Jan 10 150 @Furman L 67 - 81 9% 
 Thu, Jan 15 160 Mercer L 75 - 82 24% 
 Sat, Jan 17 360 The Citadel W 78 - 70 77% 
 Wed, Jan 21 284 UNC Greensboro L 77 - 78 46% 
 Sat, Jan 24 283 @Western Carolina L 74 - 81 26% 
 Thu, Jan 29 360 @The Citadel W 75 - 73 55% 
 Sat, Jan 31 160 @Mercer L 72 - 85 11% 
 Wed, Feb 4 223 Wofford L 75 - 79 34% 
 Sat, Feb 7 128 East Tennessee St. L 69 - 79 18% 
 Wed, Feb 11 284 @UNC Greensboro L 74 - 81 27% 
 Sat, Feb 14 150 Furman L 70 - 78 23% 
 Wed, Feb 18 223 @Wofford L 72 - 82 17% 
 Sat, Feb 21 283 Western Carolina L 77 - 78 47% 
 Thu, Feb 26 229 @Samford L 71 - 81 19% 
 Sat, Feb 28 273 @Chattanooga L 71 - 78 26% 
Totals 8 - 20 6 - 12 -11 -4 F D B -6 F F C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.3 1.9 4th
5th 0.2 1.4 2.3 0.9 0.0 4.7 5th
6th 0.3 2.3 4.2 1.5 0.1 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.8 6.4 3.2 0.3 14.4 7th
8th 0.2 2.4 7.3 9.6 4.3 0.6 0.0 24.4 8th
9th 1.1 6.1 12.0 11.1 4.4 0.6 0.0 35.2 9th
10th 0.8 3.1 3.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 9.8 10th
Total 0.8 4.2 9.9 16.4 19.5 18.1 13.7 9.4 4.7 2.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0%
14-4 0.0%
13-5 40.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.3% 12.5% 12.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 0.7% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.7
10-8 2.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.3
9-9 4.7% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 4.6
8-10 9.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 9.3
7-11 13.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.6
6-12 18.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.0
5-13 19.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 19.5
4-14 16.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.3
3-15 9.9% 9.9
2-16 4.2% 4.2
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%