Winthrop
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.1 #152
Expected Predictive Rating -3.6 #227
Pace 71.9 #98
Improvement -7.3 #364

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #104 C- B- B+ B B-
Defense #263 D+ D C- C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #175 1.11 #232 -0.9 #213
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #289 0.61 #332 -3.0 #323
Three Pointers 47% #74 1.00 #205 +2.4 #108
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #216 -1.5 #216
Freethrows 19.8 #69 74% #149 14.6 #72
Second Chance 34.1% #86 1.06 #166 0.36 #95
Turnovers 14.5% #56
Total Offense +3.0 #104

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #206 1.15 #171 +0.5 #160
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #222 0.94 #357 -1.2 #270
Three Pointers 44% #114 1.07 #258 -2.4 #283
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #279 -3.1 #282
Freethrows 18.4 #235 72% #181 13.3 #135
Second Chance 31.8% #225 1.19 #320 0.38 #302
Turnovers 16.1% #212
Total Defense -2.9 #263

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #92 0.4% #197
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.4% #245 5.7% #285
Possession Length 16.6 #118 17.7 #248
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #205 0.16 #136
Improvement -2.9 #336 -4.4 #357

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.9% 17.0% 13.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 78.7% 86.0% 65.0%
.500 or above in Conference 92.6% 96.3% 85.6%
Conference Champion 9.9% 12.9% 4.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.9% 0.5% 1.5%
First Round15.5% 16.8% 13.1%
Second Round0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina Upstate (Away) - 65.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 23 - 7
Quad 413 - 617 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 207 Queens W 81 - 74 60%  +2  1 - 0 +4 -0 F A+ C+ +5 A+ D- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 92 @George Mason L 90 - 96 20%  -0  1 - 1 +3 +13 B F A+ -10 F C+ A-
 Tue, Nov 11 270 @Coastal Carolina L 66 - 72 63%  -7  1 - 2 -9 -7 F F B -2 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 160 Mercer W 105 - 69 63%  +16  2 - 2 +33 +16 A- A- A+ +12 A+ B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 19 @Arkansas L 83 - 84 5%  -1  2 - 3 +18 +16 A A+ A- +3 A- D+ C
 Sun, Nov 23 342 @Jackson St. W 80 - 62 79%  +8  3 - 3 +9 +10 C C+ A +1 D- C C
 Tue, Nov 25 23 @Nebraska L 73 - 80 5%  -2  3 - 4 +12 +11 A+ B A- +0 A B F
 Sat, Nov 29 357 South Carolina St. W 101 - 79 94%  +14  4 - 4 +4 +17 A A+ F -13 F D D-
 Tue, Dec 2 209 @LIU Brooklyn W 94 - 92 OT 49%  +4  5 - 4 +2 +13 F A+ A+ -11 D F D
 Sat, Dec 6 270 Coastal Carolina L 84 - 88 81%  +1  5 - 5 -13 +9 D- A+ C -23 F F D-
 Thu, Dec 18 319 @North Dakota L 88 - 90 74%  +2  5 - 6 -9 +13 A B+ A+ -21 D F F
 Sun, Dec 28 17 @Texas Tech L 57 - 87 4%  -26  5 - 7 -10 -8 F D- F -2 D+ C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 31 279 @Longwood L 70 - 82 64%  -7  5 - 8 0 - 1 -16 -2 F C A+ -14 F F C
 Sat, Jan 3 363 Gardner-Webb W 88 - 77 95%  -5  6 - 8 1 - 1 -8 +9 C F A- -17 F A- F
 Wed, Jan 7 225 Charleston Southern W 81 - 77 74%  -2  7 - 8 2 - 1 -3 -2 D C D -1 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 287 @South Carolina Upstate W 81 - 77 65% 
 Wed, Jan 14 86 High Point L 82 - 86 36% 
 Sat, Jan 17 239 @UNC Asheville W 77 - 76 55% 
 Wed, Jan 21 234 Radford W 88 - 81 75% 
 Sat, Jan 24 289 @Presbyterian W 74 - 70 65% 
 Sat, Jan 31 239 UNC Asheville W 80 - 73 75% 
 Wed, Feb 4 234 @Radford W 85 - 84 54% 
 Sat, Feb 7 279 Longwood W 85 - 75 82% 
 Thu, Feb 12 363 @Gardner-Webb W 88 - 75 89% 
 Thu, Feb 19 287 South Carolina Upstate W 84 - 74 82% 
 Sat, Feb 21 86 @High Point L 79 - 89 18% 
 Thu, Feb 26 225 @Charleston Southern W 82 - 81 52% 
 Sat, Feb 28 289 Presbyterian W 77 - 67 83% 
Totals 15 - 13 10 - 6 +0 +3 C- B- B+ -3 D+ D C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.5 3.8 2.6 0.4 9.9 1st
2nd 0.1 2.2 10.3 16.7 12.6 4.6 0.5 46.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 7.9 8.8 3.1 0.3 21.6 3rd
4th 0.5 4.4 4.5 1.0 0.1 10.5 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 3.3 0.6 0.0 6.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 1.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.2 0.6 1.9 4.7 9.4 15.3 20.2 20.5 15.4 8.3 3.1 0.4 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
14-2 84.6% 2.6    1.8 0.8
13-3 45.3% 3.8    1.7 2.0 0.1
12-4 16.0% 2.5    0.8 1.5 0.2
11-5 3.0% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
10-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 9.9% 9.9 4.7 4.6 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.4% 36.0% 36.0% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-2 3.1% 28.8% 28.8% 13.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 2.2
13-3 8.3% 24.6% 24.6% 13.8 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 6.3
12-4 15.4% 22.1% 22.1% 14.1 0.0 0.5 1.9 0.9 0.1 12.0
11-5 20.5% 17.3% 17.3% 14.5 0.2 1.6 1.6 0.1 16.9
10-6 20.2% 14.0% 14.0% 14.9 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.4 17.4
9-7 15.3% 11.0% 11.0% 15.3 0.0 1.1 0.6 13.6
8-8 9.4% 8.4% 8.4% 15.8 0.2 0.6 8.6
7-9 4.7% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3 4.4
6-10 1.9% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.1 1.7
5-11 0.6% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-12 0.2% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 14.5 84.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.3 3.1 62.5 31.3 3.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%