Winthrop
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.7 135
Results Rating +1.9 134
Pace 72.0 87
Improvement -3.1 300

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 113 C- B- B B+ B
Defense C 187 C C- C D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 163 D- 51% 326 -2.3 269
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 333 D+ 35% 274 -3.4 334
Three Pointers 48% 40 C 34% 195 +3.5 68
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.0 54 D+ -3.1 295
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 248
Second Chance B- 33.5% 89 C+ 1.07 121 B- 0.36 87
Turnovers B 15.0% 70
Freethrows B+ 0.36 27 B- 74% 119 B+ 0.27 29
Total Offense C+ +2.2 113

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 126 C 11.3% 194
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 155 C+ 4.7% 161
Three Pointers C- 81% 249 C- 1.2% 266
Total B- 60% 78 C 5.6% 189

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 252 C 57% 168 -1.5 123
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 252 F+ 44% 344 +0.2 207
Three Pointers 45% 58 C+ 33% 135 +1.6 267
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.1 195 C +0.2 189
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 190
Second Chance C+ 29.4% 142 D+ 1.10 279 C- 0.32 216
Turnovers C 16.6% 194
Freethrows D+ 0.33 262 D+ 74% 282 D+ 0.24 274
Total Defense C -0.5 187

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 104 C- 9.7% 221
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 19% 62 D 2.4% 313
Three Pointers C+ 82% 112 C- 0.6% 221
Total C+ 53% 116 D+ 4.3% 290

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.6 92 17.1 144
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 214 0.15 122
Improvement -3.7 #333 +0.6 #150

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 153 134 115
Results Rating Rank 156 135 96
Conference Record 12 - 4 14 - 2 14 - 2
Conference Finish 2 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25% 26% 23%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.2 13.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 10% 15% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round25% 26% 23%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Charleston Southern (Away) - 67.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 14 - 6
Quad 416 - 420 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 212 Queens W 81 - 74 67% +2  72% 1 - 0 C+ +4 D+ -3 F A B- A- +7 A D- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 105 @George Mason L 90 - 96 29% -0  47% 1 - 1 C +1 A- +10 B F A+ F+ -8 F B- B
 Tue, Nov 11 236 @Coastal Carolina L 66 - 72 61% -7  1% 1 - 2 D+ -7 F+ -8 D F+ B- C+ +1 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 178 Mercer W 105 - 69 71% +16  94% 2 - 2 A+ +32 A +11 B+ B A- A+ +16 A B A+
 Tue, Nov 18 17 @Arkansas L 83 - 84 4% -1  37% 2 - 3 A +20 A +13 A- A+ A- A- +7 A D+ C+
 Sun, Nov 23 337 @Jackson St. W 80 - 62 84% +8  80% 3 - 3 B +9 B +7 C+ B- B+ B +4 F+ B B-
 Tue, Nov 25 13 @Nebraska L 73 - 80 4% -2  28% 3 - 4 A- +15 A +12 A B A B- +3 A B F
 Sat, Nov 29 357 South Carolina St. W 101 - 79 96% +14  91% 4 - 4 C+ +4 A +13 B+ A+ D F -11 F F+ D
 Tue, Dec 2 219 @LIU Brooklyn W 94 - 92 OT 58% +4  71% 5 - 4 C +2 A +12 D- A+ A F -11 F+ F D
 Sat, Dec 6 236 Coastal Carolina L 84 - 88 80% +1  51% 5 - 5 D -11 B+ +8 D+ A+ C- F -19 F F+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 294 @North Dakota L 88 - 90 73% +2  48% 5 - 6 D+ -7 B+ +8 B B+ A- F -15 D+ F F
 Sun, Dec 28 14 @Texas Tech L 57 - 87 4% -26  0% 5 - 7 D -8 F+ -9 F D F+ C+ +1 C C A
 Wed, Dec 31 262 @Longwood L 70 - 82 67% -7  2% 5 - 8 0 - 1 F+ -15 D+ -3 F C+ A+ F -12 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 364 Gardner-Webb W 88 - 77 97% -5  24% 6 - 8 1 - 1 D -11 B- +5 C+ F B+ F -15 F B+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 268 Charleston Southern W 81 - 77 84% -2  26% 7 - 8 2 - 1 D+ -5 D- -6 F+ C+ D+ C+ +1 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 297 @South Carolina Upstate W 71 - 50 74% +15  89% 8 - 8 3 - 1 A- +16 C- -1 C- C- D A+ +18 A+ C B+
 Wed, Jan 14 90 High Point W 92 - 75 44% +15  93% 9 - 8 4 - 1 A +20 A+ +15 B A+ A+ B+ +5 B- A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 223 @UNC Asheville W 69 - 67 59% +6  91% 10 - 8 5 - 1 C +1 D -5 F C- F A- +7 A+ B D-
 Wed, Jan 21 233 Radford W 76 - 75 79% -2  23% 11 - 8 6 - 1 D+ -6 D+ -2 B+ D- C D+ -4 F B A+
 Sat, Jan 24 277 @Presbyterian W 82 - 72 69% +5  92% 12 - 8 7 - 1 B- +6 B- +4 F B A+ B- +2 B+ B+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 223 UNC Asheville W 84 - 71 79% +7  98% 13 - 8 8 - 1 B- +6 A +13 B+ A D D -6 C A- F
 Wed, Feb 4 233 @Radford W 80 - 78 60% +3  65% 14 - 8 9 - 1 C +1 C +1 B- F B C -0 C C+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 262 Longwood W 79 - 74 84% +2  65% 15 - 8 10 - 1 C- -4 D- -7 F D+ C+ B- +3 B+ B+ F
 Thu, Feb 12 364 @Gardner-Webb W 103 - 85 94% +13  93% 16 - 8 11 - 1 C+ +2 A +11 B+ A C- F -10 F D+ C+
 Thu, Feb 19 297 South Carolina Upstate W 68 - 64 88% +2  57% 17 - 8 12 - 1 D+ -7 D- -8 F A+ F C+ +1 A C+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 90 @High Point L 87 - 89 24% -8  2% 17 - 9 12 - 2 B- +7 B+ +9 F+ A+ A+ C- -2 D C- A-
 Thu, Feb 26 268 @Charleston Southern W 83 - 78 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 277 Presbyterian W 78 - 67 85%
Totals 19 - 9 14 - 2 +2 C+ +2 A- D+ B C +0 C B- B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ D- D+ C D+ 39% 23% 48% B C- B- C+ B- B B+ B- B+ C C F+ C+ C 36% 18% 45% C- C C+ D+ C- C D+ D+ D+
1.12 51% 35% 34% -3 +1 0.98 33% 1.1 .36 15% .36 74% .27 1.09 57% 44% 33% 0 0 1.03 29% 1.1 .32 17% .33 74% .27
Nov
3		 Queens D+ F F F+ F 33% 22% 45% D F B A A B- A+ A A+ A- C F A+ A 35% 18% 47% B- A F C+ D- A+ C+ F D+
1.12 47% 27% 30% -8 0 0.84 39% 1.3 .49 14% .50 81% .40 1.03 61% 56% 21% -5 0 0.92 38% 1.1 .41 24% .29 88% .25
Nov
7		 George Mason A- A+ D B B+ 19% 22% 59% D B D+ F F A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ F B F F 36% 13% 51% D F F A+ B- B F C F
1.17 73% 31% 37% +4 -2 1.07 24% 0.2 .04 8% .41 86% .35 1.25 76% 33% 42% +12 +1 1.28 44% 0.6 .28 18% .69 72% .50
Nov
11		 Coastal Carolina F+ F C D- F 44% 19% 37% A D F B+ F+ B- A- F C- C+ A A F F+ 35% 15% 50% F F D F F A+ F A+ D
0.92 42% 40% 30% -9 +1 0.85 14% 1.2 .17 11% .36 57% .20 1.01 44% 29% 48% +4 0 1.11 29% 1.3 .39 24% .39 57% .22
Nov
15		 Mercer A C+ B+ A+ B+ 42% 19% 39% C+ B+ C+ A- B A- A+ D- A+ A+ C+ F A+ A 27% 29% 43% A A A+ F B A+ F A+ C-
1.30 58% 45% 45% +8 0 1.19 34% 1.2 .39 14% .53 70% .37 0.85 57% 53% 18% -6 -2 0.86 19% 1.4 .27 23% .42 62% .26
Nov
18		 Arkansas A B F A+ A- 31% 19% 51% C A- D A+ A+ A- F C- F A- F A+ C A- 37% 31% 33% A A A+ F D+ C+ D F F
1.17 61% 0% 43% +1 0 1.03 24% 2.3 .53 14% .10 67% .07 1.18 79% 19% 35% +2 -1 1.04 24% 2.0 .48 13% .35 91% .32
Nov
23		 Jackson St. B B- F A- C+ 37% 11% 52% C+ C+ D+ A B- B+ F A+ F B C- F C- F 18% 33% 49% A F+ B- B+ B B- A+ A+ A+
1.24 65% 17% 39% +4 +1 1.13 33% 1.3 .42 12% .18 90% .16 0.96 56% 50% 33% +3 -3 1.02 24% 0.9 .21 20% .16 63% .10
Nov
25		 Nebraska A A+ C+ B+ A+ 7% 29% 64% D A A+ D- B A C F+ C- B- C- C- B A- 25% 18% 57% A A B- B B F A+ F A-
1.06 100% 38% 36% +5 -3 1.05 38% 0.7 .27 16% .22 62% .14 1.16 67% 36% 32% 0 -1 1.02 24% 1.0 .24 7% .16 90% .14
Nov
29		 South Carolina St. A A- A- B B+ 45% 7% 48% B- B+ A A+ A+ D F A+ F F C D- F F 39% 30% 31% D- F C F F+ D A+ C- A
1.38 72% 50% 37% +9 +2 1.25 48% 1.7 .84 19% .25 87% .22 1.08 52% 44% 47% +6 -1 1.11 29% 1.3 .37 19% .20 67% .13
Dec
2		 LIU Brooklyn A D+ F F F 56% 12% 32% B+ D- B+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ F D- C- F F 43% 31% 26% B+ F+ C- F F D F F F
1.23 53% 14% 28% -9 +2 0.89 40% 1.4 .55 13% .44 83% .36 1.21 65% 41% 43% +7 -1 1.15 36% 1.3 .45 18% .40 80% .32
Dec
6		 Coastal Carolina B+ C+ F D- D 29% 21% 50% B D+ A+ C A+ C- A+ C- A+ F A F F F 31% 25% 44% D+ F C+ F F+ F F D- F
1.20 57% 30% 29% -6 -1 0.90 44% 1.0 .46 13% .56 71% .40 1.26 44% 54% 43% +6 -1 1.12 24% 1.4 .32 11% .42 77% .32
Dec
18		 North Dakota B+ D- A+ A+ B 43% 8% 50% B- B F A+ B+ A- A+ D- A+ F A+ F F C- 41% 4% 55% F+ D+ F F F F F D+ F
1.27 53% 67% 45% +8 +2 1.23 26% 1.9 .48 16% .74 67% .50 1.30 38% 50% 39% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.4 .53 10% .51 72% .37
Dec
28		 Texas Tech F+ F A+ F F 35% 21% 44% A- F A F D F+ A+ C- A+ C+ B F D+ C+ 33% 14% 53% D C B- D+ C A F F F
0.81 35% 70% 14% -14 0 0.73 36% 0.4 .16 21% .41 65% .27 1.23 56% 71% 38% +8 0 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 20% .46 88% .41
Dec
31		 Longwood D+ F F F F 48% 8% 44% B+ F A F+ C+ A+ A+ A A+ F C- B- F F 52% 13% 35% F F F F F C- F+ B- D
1.04 39% 25% 24% -17 +2 0.73 39% 0.8 .30 12% .54 78% .42 1.21 60% 33% 41% +4 +2 1.15 44% 1.1 .50 19% .38 71% .27
Jan
3		 Gardner-Webb B- A+ F D- C 46% 13% 41% B C+ A+ F F B+ A+ A A+ F C- F F+ F 27% 17% 56% B+ F A+ D+ B+ F D- A+ C
1.30 86% 0% 32% +6 +2 1.17 47% 0.5 .24 12% .54 81% .44 1.14 57% 67% 38% +8 0 1.17 14% 1.0 .14 10% .31 58% .18
Jan
7		 Charleston Southern D- D F F F 54% 12% 34% A+ F+ B+ D- C+ D+ A+ F B C+ A- F A+ A+ 43% 10% 47% D+ A+ C- F F F F A+ D+
1.05 50% 29% 20% -13 +2 0.81 36% 0.9 .32 13% .46 61% .28 1.00 48% 50% 19% -14 +2 0.78 30% 1.5 .45 12% .34 57% .19
Jan
10		 South Carolina Upstate C- F+ F B+ D+ 42% 6% 52% B+ C- A+ F C- D B F C- A+ A A+ A+ A+ 55% 22% 22% D- A+ A+ F C B+ B- C- C+
1.06 48% 0% 38% -3 +2 1.00 43% 0.8 .33 18% .35 58% .20 0.75 44% 0% 18% -21 +1 0.61 18% 1.4 .26 21% .26 71% .19
Jan
14		 High Point A+ B- D B- B- 44% 6% 50% A- B C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ B+ F+ B- A B- 35% 12% 53% B- B- C A+ A+ C F B F+
1.31 64% 33% 36% +4 +2 1.14 33% 1.5 .52 13% .54 67% .36 1.06 71% 33% 27% -2 +1 1.00 32% 0.5 .15 14% .46 71% .33
Jan
17		 UNC Asheville D F A+ B- F 43% 2% 54% A F C D C- F A+ A+ A+ A- A+ F A+ A+ 23% 35% 42% C A+ C- A B D- F D+ F
0.98 25% 100% 36% -11 +3 0.85 32% 0.8 .27 21% .54 80% .44 0.96 42% 50% 18% -10 -3 0.77 30% 0.8 .23 14% .42 72% .30
Jan
21		 Radford D+ F C+ A+ B 44% 10% 46% B B+ F+ C+ D- C C F D+ D+ D- F F F 48% 5% 48% F F A- C B A+ F D+ F
1.11 48% 40% 50% +7 +2 1.19 24% 1.1 .27 17% .34 63% .21 1.09 65% 50% 40% +8 +3 1.24 23% 1.0 .23 28% .48 75% .36
Jan
24		 Presbyterian B- F+ B- F F 55% 13% 32% B+ F B C+ B A+ A+ B A+ B- A+ F A+ B 30% 33% 37% A B+ B+ B+ B+ C F F F
1.15 48% 43% 24% -10 +2 0.87 37% 1.1 .39 7% .53 71% .38 1.01 43% 53% 24% -5 -2 0.87 27% 0.9 .24 20% .44 88% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 UNC Asheville A F A A+ B+ 33% 4% 62% B B+ B+ A- A D A+ A+ A+ D D+ F A+ C 28% 32% 40% D+ C B- A+ A- F F F F
1.30 47% 50% 43% +5 +2 1.16 38% 1.1 .41 19% .53 89% .47 1.09 62% 53% 26% +1 -2 1.00 27% 0.7 .18 12% .42 83% .35
Feb
4		 Radford C C+ A+ C C+ 43% 13% 43% B- B- D- F F B C+ D- C C C C C+ C 37% 14% 49% C- C F A+ C+ C- A- D B+
1.12 61% 57% 35% +4 +1 1.13 26% 0.7 .17 15% .35 67% .23 1.09 57% 38% 32% -2 +1 1.00 37% 0.7 .27 17% .29 76% .22
Feb
7		 Longwood D- B- F F F 32% 11% 57% C F F A+ D+ C+ A+ A+ A+ B- F B+ A+ B 25% 31% 43% A B+ A- C+ B+ F F A+ F
1.02 67% 20% 22% -9 +1 0.85 14% 1.6 .22 18% .63 88% .55 0.96 69% 31% 23% -7 -2 0.84 27% 0.9 .24 16% .54 63% .34
Feb
12		 Gardner-Webb A F+ A+ A+ B 44% 2% 55% A B+ B+ A A C- A+ C+ A+ F D+ D- F F 49% 9% 42% F F C F D+ C+ D- B+ D+
1.34 54% 100% 47% +10 +3 1.27 42% 1.3 .53 16% .43 75% .32 1.11 59% 40% 43% +7 +2 1.20 23% 1.1 .26 21% .31 63% .20
Feb
19		 South Carolina Upstate D- F A+ F F 50% 5% 45% A F B+ A+ A+ F A+ F A C+ A+ F A+ A+ 31% 12% 57% D+ A A- F+ C+ F F F F
1.01 33% 100% 26% -15 +3 0.79 37% 1.5 .55 21% .47 60% .28 0.95 40% 50% 25% -12 +1 0.80 23% 1.1 .25 13% .38 77% .29
Feb
21		 High Point B+ F A+ F F 57% 2% 41% A+ F+ A A- A+ A+ C B C+ C- D A+ D+ D 38% 2% 60% D- D B F C- A- F D F
1.18 48% 100% 25% -10 +4 0.90 42% 1.2 .51 14% .31 75% .23 1.20 67% 0% 36% +4 +2 1.15 28% 1.3 .38 18% .49 80% .39



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 10.3 10.3 1st
2nd 5.3 36.9 47.5 89.7 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 5.3 36.9 57.8 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 17.8% 10.3    10.3
13-3 0.0%
12-4 0.0%
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total 10.3% 10.3 10.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 57.8% 27.2% 27.2% 13.1 0.0 2.0 9.5 4.1 0.1 42.1
13-3 36.9% 23.1% 23.1% 13.7 0.1 3.1 4.6 0.7 0.0 28.4
12-4 5.3% 21.1% 21.1% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.2
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 25.4% 25.4% 0.0% 13.4 74.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 15.7% 100.0% 13.1 0.1 13.0 60.5 25.8 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 20.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 12.0%
Lose Out 1.2%