Winthrop
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.3 #123
Expected Predictive Rating +1.6 #140
Pace 71.5 #110
Improvement -2.4 #285

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #106 C- B- B B+ B-
Defense #172 C C C D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #173 1.04 #304 -2.1 #257
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #320 0.65 #327 -3.5 #336
Three Pointers 48% #44 1.04 #150 +4.0 #55
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #221 -1.5 #221
Freethrows 0.35 #40 75% #102 0.26 #34
Second Chance 33.6% #95 1.06 #128 0.36 #89
Turnovers 14.7% #65
Total Offense +2.6 #106

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #220 1.13 #139 +1.2 #133
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #226 0.90 #349 -0.6 #237
Three Pointers 44% #88 0.99 #136 -0.9 #227
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #189 -0.3 #189
Freethrows 0.32 #239 75% #312 0.24 #273
Second Chance 30.7% #182 1.06 #243 0.33 #220
Turnovers 16.6% #181
Total Defense -0.3 #172

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.9% #63 0.3% #192
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.8% #260 0.3% #196
Possession Length 16.7 #119 17.1 #166
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #228 0.14 #87
Improvement -3.1 #331 +0.6 #148

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.8% 31.6% 26.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.2 13.6
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 40.6% 49.9% 24.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round29.8% 31.6% 26.6%
Second Round1.6% 1.9% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Radford (Away) - 63.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 21 - 11 - 5
Quad 35 - 25 - 7
Quad 414 - 420 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 208 Queens W 81 - 74 70% +2  1 - 0 +4 -0 F A C+ +4 A- D A+
 Fri, Nov 7 84 @George Mason L 90 - 96 24% -0  1 - 1 +4 +14 B F A+ -10 F B- B
 Tue, Nov 11 239 @Coastal Carolina L 66 - 72 64% -7  1 - 2 -7 -7 D- F+ C+ +0 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 148 Mercer W 105 - 69 67% +16  2 - 2 +34 +15 B+ B A- +14 A B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 22 @Arkansas L 83 - 84 6% -1  2 - 3 +18 +15 B+ A+ A- +3 A- D+ C
 Sun, Nov 23 337 @Jackson St. W 80 - 62 84% +8  3 - 3 +10 +10 C+ C+ A- +1 D- C+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 13 @Nebraska L 73 - 80 5% -2  3 - 4 +14 +12 A- B- A +2 A B F
 Sat, Nov 29 359 South Carolina St. W 101 - 79 96% +14  4 - 4 +4 +16 B+ A+ D- -13 F D D-
 Tue, Dec 2 195 @LIU Brooklyn W 94 - 92 OT 57% +4  5 - 4 +3 +15 D- A+ A+ -12 D- F+ D
 Sat, Dec 6 239 Coastal Carolina L 84 - 88 82% +1  5 - 5 -11 +9 D+ A+ C- -21 F F+ D-
 Thu, Dec 18 282 @North Dakota L 88 - 90 73% +2  5 - 6 -6 +12 B- A- A -18 C- F F
 Sun, Dec 28 17 @Texas Tech L 57 - 87 5% -26  5 - 7 -9 -8 F D- F+ -1 C C A
 Wed, Dec 31 264 @Longwood L 70 - 82 69% -7  5 - 8 0 - 1 -15 -1 F C+ A+ -15 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 363 Gardner-Webb W 88 - 77 98% -5  6 - 8 1 - 1 -10 +8 C F B -18 F A- F
 Wed, Jan 7 246 Charleston Southern W 81 - 77 83% -2  7 - 8 2 - 1 -4 -2 D- C C- -2 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 302 @South Carolina Upstate W 71 - 50 76% +15  8 - 8 3 - 1 +16 +2 C- C D +15 A+ C B
 Wed, Jan 14 98 High Point W 92 - 75 51% +15  9 - 8 4 - 1 +19 +16 B A+ A+ +3 B- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 209 @UNC Asheville W 69 - 67 59% +6  10 - 8 5 - 1 +2 -4 F C- F +6 A+ B F+
 Wed, Jan 21 234 Radford W 76 - 75 81% -2  11 - 8 6 - 1 -6 -1 B D- C+ -5 F B- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 262 @Presbyterian W 82 - 72 69% +5  12 - 8 7 - 1 +7 +7 F B+ A+ +0 B B+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 209 UNC Asheville W 84 - 71 79% +7  13 - 8 8 - 1 +7 +15 B A- D -7 C A F
 Wed, Feb 4 234 @Radford W 84 - 81 63%
 Sat, Feb 7 264 Longwood W 82 - 71 86%
 Thu, Feb 12 363 @Gardner-Webb W 88 - 70 95%
 Thu, Feb 19 302 South Carolina Upstate W 82 - 68 89%
 Sat, Feb 21 98 @High Point L 79 - 85 30%
 Thu, Feb 26 246 @Charleston Southern W 82 - 78 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 262 Presbyterian W 78 - 67 85%
Totals 18 - 10 13 - 3 +2 +3 C- B- B +0 C C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 8.5 21.8 9.1 40.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 5.2 17.9 26.1 7.9 57.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.2 6.0 19.2 34.6 29.8 9.1 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 9.1    9.1
14-2 73.3% 21.8    10.0 11.9
13-3 24.7% 8.5    2.2 6.3 0.1
12-4 6.0% 1.2    0.2 0.8 0.1
11-5 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 40.6% 40.6 21.4 19.0 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 9.1% 42.6% 42.6% 12.5 0.1 1.9 1.7 0.1 5.2
14-2 29.8% 33.5% 33.5% 13.2 1.4 5.8 2.7 0.1 19.8
13-3 34.6% 28.2% 28.2% 13.6 0.4 4.0 4.7 0.6 0.0 24.8
12-4 19.2% 24.4% 24.4% 13.8 0.1 1.4 2.7 0.5 14.5
11-5 6.0% 20.4% 20.4% 14.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 4.8
10-6 1.2% 17.8% 17.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0
9-7 0.1% 11.5% 11.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
8-8 0.0% 0.0
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 29.8% 29.8% 0.0% 13.4 70.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.9% 100.0% 12.5 2.1 49.8 45.1 3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%