Winthrop
Big South
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#190
Expected Predictive Rating+0.2#165
Pace81.0#6
Improvement-0.6#221

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#177
First Shot-1.4#216
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#121
Layup/Dunks+2.4#100
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#351
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#282
Freethrows+3.2#31
Improvement+2.2#47

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#203
First Shot+0.3#161
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#292
Layups/Dunks+0.9#135
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#48
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#273
Freethrows-0.3#212
Improvement-2.8#343
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.2% 17.9% 12.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 13.7 14.5
.500 or above 80.9% 94.2% 79.7%
.500 or above in Conference 75.6% 84.6% 74.8%
Conference Champion 15.9% 23.1% 15.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 1.3% 2.8%
First Four0.6% 0.1% 0.6%
First Round13.0% 17.9% 12.5%
Second Round0.6% 1.5% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana (Away) - 7.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 9
Quad 414 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 244   Arkansas Little Rock W 82-67 72%     1 - 0 +7.4 +0.1 +5.7
  Nov 11, 2024 138   @ Virginia Tech L 52-58 29%     1 - 1 -1.7 -12.8 +10.5
  Nov 15, 2024 221   William & Mary W 86-85 68%     2 - 1 -5.3 -3.8 -1.6
  Nov 16, 2024 242   Georgia Southern L 87-89 72%     2 - 2 -9.5 -5.7 -3.4
  Nov 17, 2024 274   NC Central W 77-75 77%     3 - 2 -7.3 -0.8 -6.4
  Nov 22, 2024 45   @ Louisville L 61-76 8%     3 - 3 -0.9 -12.7 +13.3
  Nov 25, 2024 336   LIU Brooklyn W 87-65 88%     4 - 3 +8.0 +7.5 -0.1
  Dec 03, 2024 264   @ Queens W 86-78 54%     5 - 3 +5.4 +4.5 +0.2
  Dec 07, 2024 277   Coastal Carolina W 96-89 77%     6 - 3 -2.4 +18.0 -20.4
  Dec 17, 2024 70   @ Florida St. L 64-82 13%     6 - 4 -7.2 -8.5 +2.9
  Dec 21, 2024 235   Mercer W 102-97 71%     7 - 4 -2.1 +5.7 -8.8
  Dec 29, 2024 51   @ Indiana L 74-89 8%    
  Jan 02, 2025 342   South Carolina Upstate W 90-77 89%    
  Jan 04, 2025 214   @ Radford L 74-76 43%    
  Jan 08, 2025 229   @ Gardner-Webb L 81-82 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 173   Longwood W 79-77 58%    
  Jan 15, 2025 298   Charleston Southern W 84-75 79%    
  Jan 18, 2025 176   @ UNC Asheville L 78-82 37%    
  Jan 25, 2025 123   @ High Point L 78-85 26%    
  Jan 29, 2025 268   Presbyterian W 81-74 75%    
  Feb 01, 2025 229   Gardner-Webb W 84-79 68%    
  Feb 05, 2025 298   @ Charleston Southern W 81-78 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 342   @ South Carolina Upstate W 87-80 74%    
  Feb 12, 2025 214   Radford W 77-73 65%    
  Feb 15, 2025 123   High Point L 81-82 47%    
  Feb 19, 2025 268   @ Presbyterian W 78-77 55%    
  Feb 26, 2025 173   @ Longwood L 76-80 36%    
  Mar 01, 2025 176   UNC Asheville W 81-79 58%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.2 4.3 2.2 0.6 0.1 15.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 5.0 7.3 3.7 0.8 0.1 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 5.5 7.8 2.7 0.2 17.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.9 7.2 2.2 0.2 15.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.8 6.3 2.1 0.1 12.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.8 1.8 0.1 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.1 1.2 0.1 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 4.1 6.9 10.5 13.9 15.7 15.7 13.0 9.1 5.2 2.3 0.6 0.1 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
14-2 97.6% 2.2    2.0 0.2 0.0
13-3 83.9% 4.3    3.2 1.1 0.1
12-4 57.1% 5.2    2.5 2.2 0.4 0.0
11-5 22.0% 2.9    0.7 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.6% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 15.9% 15.9 9.1 4.9 1.5 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 39.2% 39.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 0.6% 38.5% 38.5% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-2 2.3% 36.2% 36.2% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.4
13-3 5.2% 30.5% 30.5% 13.6 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 3.6
12-4 9.1% 23.1% 23.1% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.0 7.0
11-5 13.0% 17.8% 17.8% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.1 10.7
10-6 15.7% 14.3% 14.3% 14.7 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.2 13.5
9-7 15.7% 10.2% 10.2% 14.9 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 14.1
8-8 13.9% 8.2% 8.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.4 12.8
7-9 10.5% 6.2% 6.2% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 9.9
6-10 6.9% 4.7% 4.7% 15.9 0.0 0.3 6.6
5-11 4.1% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 3.9
4-12 1.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 1.8
3-13 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.3 4.9 1.7 86.8 0.0%