Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#256
Expected Predictive Rating+7.2#72
Pace71.5#116
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#274
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#230
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.5% 8.0% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 52.8% 57.1% 29.4%
.500 or above in Conference 60.7% 63.5% 45.4%
Conference Champion 8.2% 9.0% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 4.6% 4.0% 7.7%
First Four1.2% 1.1% 1.2%
First Round6.9% 7.5% 3.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Home) - 84.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 42 - 8
Quad 414 - 716 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 31   @ Maryland L 52-86 4%     0 - 1 -18.8 -11.1 -7.6
  Nov 13, 2024 242   @ Bucknell W 93-89 2OT 35%     1 - 1 +3.1 +3.6 -1.2
  Nov 16, 2024 350   St. Francis (PA) W 79-68 84%    
  Nov 20, 2024 105   @ Georgetown L 67-80 12%    
  Nov 23, 2024 344   Delaware St. W 76-66 82%    
  Nov 30, 2024 246   @ Howard L 72-76 37%    
  Dec 06, 2024 226   @ Marist L 65-70 34%    
  Dec 08, 2024 258   Fairfield W 72-69 61%    
  Dec 14, 2024 331   Loyola Maryland W 72-64 76%    
  Dec 18, 2024 339   @ LIU Brooklyn W 75-72 61%    
  Dec 21, 2024 33   @ Miami (FL) L 65-85 4%    
  Dec 28, 2024 95   @ George Mason L 65-78 12%    
  Jan 05, 2025 320   Niagara W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 10, 2025 334   @ Manhattan W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 12, 2025 335   Sacred Heart W 82-74 77%    
  Jan 16, 2025 227   @ Rider L 70-75 34%    
  Jan 18, 2025 247   Quinnipiac W 77-75 58%    
  Jan 23, 2025 308   @ Siena L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 25, 2025 334   Manhattan W 76-68 76%    
  Jan 31, 2025 206   @ Merrimack L 64-69 32%    
  Feb 02, 2025 187   @ St. Peter's L 62-69 28%    
  Feb 06, 2025 221   Iona W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 14, 2025 320   @ Niagara W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 16, 2025 318   @ Canisius W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 21, 2025 187   St. Peter's L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 23, 2025 227   Rider W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 28, 2025 258   @ Fairfield L 69-72 41%    
  Mar 02, 2025 308   Siena W 73-67 68%    
  Mar 06, 2025 247   @ Quinnipiac L 74-78 38%    
  Mar 08, 2025 226   Marist W 68-67 54%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.2 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 8.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.0 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 9.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.0 3.8 2.4 0.8 0.1 9.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 4.1 2.7 0.7 0.1 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.2 3.1 0.6 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.0 3.6 0.8 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.3 3.8 1.0 0.1 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.9 1.3 0.1 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 7.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.6 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.6 5.5 7.1 9.0 10.4 10.9 11.2 10.3 9.1 7.0 5.4 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 95.8% 0.8    0.8 0.1
17-3 89.5% 1.7    1.4 0.3 0.0
16-4 62.7% 2.2    1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
15-5 36.5% 2.0    0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1
14-6 12.9% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.2% 8.2 4.8 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 44.2% 44.2% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
18-2 0.9% 35.5% 35.5% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
17-3 1.9% 31.4% 31.4% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.3
16-4 3.5% 28.5% 28.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 2.5
15-5 5.4% 19.7% 19.7% 14.7 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 4.4
14-6 7.0% 16.1% 16.1% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 5.9
13-7 9.1% 11.1% 11.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 8.1
12-8 10.3% 8.8% 8.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 9.4
11-9 11.2% 5.8% 5.8% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 10.6
10-10 10.9% 2.7% 2.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.6
9-11 10.4% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 10.2
8-12 9.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 8.9
7-13 7.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.1
6-14 5.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.5
5-15 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.5
4-16 2.0% 2.0
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.7 2.5 92.5 0.0%