Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.8#73
Expected Predictive Rating+6.1#89
Pace75.1#57
Improvement-1.3#309

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#34
First Shot+9.7#11
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#317
Layup/Dunks-0.2#176
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#97
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.7#10
Freethrows-0.5#208
Improvement+1.0#61

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#139
First Shot-0.1#178
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#117
Layups/Dunks+2.2#113
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#209
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#263
Freethrows+0.1#181
Improvement-2.3#357
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 1.3% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 2.3% 3.3% 1.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.0% 27.0% 16.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.7% 10.9% 4.1%
Average Seed 10.0 9.7 10.6
.500 or above 87.5% 93.2% 80.7%
.500 or above in Conference 85.3% 88.7% 81.1%
Conference Champion 18.0% 21.7% 13.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.4% 1.0%
First Four2.7% 3.7% 1.5%
First Round20.8% 25.4% 15.2%
Second Round8.6% 11.1% 5.5%
Sweet Sixteen2.7% 3.7% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.2% 0.5%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Neutral) - 54.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 45 - 7
Quad 38 - 313 - 11
Quad 46 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 191   Indiana St. W 97-64 81%     1 - 0 +31.6 +7.7 +18.9
  Nov 12, 2024 71   @ Central Florida L 94-100 38%     1 - 1 +5.0 +15.8 -10.1
  Nov 15, 2024 112   @ College of Charleston L 116-119 2OT 54%     1 - 2 +3.8 +16.9 -12.3
  Nov 16, 2024 80   Liberty W 77-74 OT 52%     2 - 2 +10.2 +6.4 +3.7
  Nov 21, 2024 86   Oklahoma St. W 82-81 55%    
  Nov 30, 2024 218   Florida Gulf Coast W 80-66 90%    
  Dec 04, 2024 275   @ Florida International W 87-76 84%    
  Dec 10, 2024 187   Jacksonville W 80-68 87%    
  Dec 14, 2024 165   Texas St. W 79-68 85%    
  Dec 21, 2024 35   @ Michigan St. L 74-81 26%    
  Jan 02, 2025 33   Memphis L 83-84 45%    
  Jan 05, 2025 145   @ East Carolina W 76-72 63%    
  Jan 08, 2025 142   @ Charlotte W 73-70 62%    
  Jan 12, 2025 103   UAB W 83-77 71%    
  Jan 15, 2025 146   @ Tulane W 82-78 63%    
  Jan 19, 2025 172   Rice W 81-70 84%    
  Jan 26, 2025 84   @ North Texas L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 29, 2025 273   Texas San Antonio W 91-74 93%    
  Feb 02, 2025 120   South Florida W 81-73 76%    
  Feb 08, 2025 185   @ Tulsa W 86-80 70%    
  Feb 10, 2025 142   Charlotte W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 16, 2025 114   @ Temple W 78-77 54%    
  Feb 20, 2025 94   Wichita St. W 81-76 68%    
  Feb 23, 2025 33   @ Memphis L 80-87 26%    
  Feb 27, 2025 84   North Texas W 71-67 63%    
  Mar 02, 2025 120   @ South Florida W 78-76 56%    
  Mar 06, 2025 103   @ UAB W 80-79 51%    
  Mar 09, 2025 145   East Carolina W 79-69 80%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.2 5.4 4.1 1.9 0.4 18.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.2 6.5 5.8 2.2 0.3 18.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.4 6.6 4.1 1.0 0.1 15.5 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 5.5 3.1 0.5 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 4.9 2.9 0.5 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 2.4 0.9 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.1 6.2 9.0 11.5 12.8 13.7 12.9 11.0 7.7 4.4 1.9 0.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.9    1.9 0.1
16-2 92.6% 4.1    3.4 0.7 0.0
15-3 70.6% 5.4    3.4 1.8 0.2
14-4 38.4% 4.2    1.7 2.0 0.5 0.0
13-5 13.1% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.0% 18.0 11.1 5.3 1.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 97.6% 57.4% 40.2% 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.4%
17-1 1.9% 90.7% 47.4% 43.4% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 82.4%
16-2 4.4% 75.9% 39.2% 36.7% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.1 60.4%
15-3 7.7% 56.3% 33.6% 22.6% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.5 0.2 3.4 34.1%
14-4 11.0% 36.7% 25.0% 11.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.2 0.5 0.0 6.9 15.7%
13-5 12.9% 24.8% 19.9% 4.8% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 0.8 0.0 9.7 6.0%
12-6 13.7% 16.1% 14.9% 1.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.1 11.5 1.4%
11-7 12.8% 10.4% 10.1% 0.4% 11.7 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 11.5 0.4%
10-8 11.5% 6.3% 6.2% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.8 0.0%
9-9 9.0% 4.6% 4.6% 12.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.6
8-10 6.2% 3.2% 3.2% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.0
7-11 4.1% 1.7% 1.7% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0
6-12 2.5% 0.8% 0.8% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
5-13 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.2
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 22.0% 15.5% 6.5% 10.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.9 3.1 8.0 4.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 78.0 7.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.1 35.1 27.0 27.0 10.8