High Point
Big South
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#135
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#103
Pace65.4#269
Improvement-0.3#197

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#72
First Shot+3.2#87
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#132
Layup/Dunks-1.4#229
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#223
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#138
Freethrows+4.3#10
Improvement-1.3#284

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#258
First Shot-2.7#268
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#200
Layups/Dunks-1.6#232
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#240
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#244
Freethrows+0.7#140
Improvement+1.0#105
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.3% 29.1% 23.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.4 13.8
.500 or above 99.3% 99.8% 98.9%
.500 or above in Conference 91.6% 93.6% 89.9%
Conference Champion 38.8% 43.4% 34.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 0.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round26.2% 29.1% 23.8%
Second Round2.1% 2.7% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Away) - 46.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 11 - 1
Quad 36 - 56 - 6
Quad 416 - 322 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 93-51 97%     1 - 0 +20.8 +11.8 +8.4
  Nov 09, 2024 303   Jackson St. W 80-71 87%     2 - 0 -1.7 +4.0 -5.8
  Nov 12, 2024 276   NC Central W 76-60 84%     3 - 0 +6.8 +9.4 -0.1
  Nov 15, 2024 129   UAB W 68-65 60%     4 - 0 +1.9 -6.0 +8.0
  Nov 18, 2024 242   American W 80-73 80%     5 - 0 -0.6 +18.9 -18.1
  Nov 24, 2024 194   Missouri St. L 61-71 61%     5 - 1 -11.4 -7.9 -4.1
  Nov 25, 2024 315   Old Dominion W 73-67 83%     6 - 1 -2.7 +5.2 -7.1
  Nov 26, 2024 266   Hampton W 76-73 75%     7 - 1 -2.7 +14.3 -16.4
  Dec 03, 2024 157   @ UNC Greensboro L 68-72 44%     7 - 2 -1.1 +10.3 -12.1
  Dec 06, 2024 80   North Texas W 76-71 40%     8 - 2 +9.0 +8.2 +0.8
  Dec 14, 2024 173   Appalachian St. W 65-59 58%     9 - 2 +5.2 -6.9 +12.0
  Dec 21, 2024 168   @ Southern Illinois L 72-73 46%    
  Dec 29, 2024 181   Norfolk St. W 75-70 69%    
  Jan 02, 2025 204   Radford W 74-68 72%    
  Jan 04, 2025 166   @ UNC Asheville L 75-76 45%    
  Jan 08, 2025 301   @ Charleston Southern W 77-71 72%    
  Jan 11, 2025 238   Gardner-Webb W 81-72 79%    
  Jan 15, 2025 172   @ Longwood L 73-74 47%    
  Jan 18, 2025 250   Presbyterian W 77-68 81%    
  Jan 22, 2025 338   @ South Carolina Upstate W 83-73 81%    
  Jan 25, 2025 187   Winthrop W 81-75 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 250   @ Presbyterian W 74-71 62%    
  Feb 05, 2025 204   @ Radford W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 08, 2025 166   UNC Asheville W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 12, 2025 172   Longwood W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 15, 2025 187   @ Winthrop L 78-79 49%    
  Feb 19, 2025 301   Charleston Southern W 80-68 86%    
  Feb 22, 2025 238   @ Gardner-Webb W 78-75 60%    
  Feb 26, 2025 338   South Carolina Upstate W 86-70 92%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 5.0 10.3 11.2 7.5 3.4 0.8 38.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 5.2 9.0 5.4 1.4 0.1 21.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 4.4 6.7 2.9 0.4 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 5.2 1.9 0.1 10.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 3.5 1.6 0.1 6.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.2 1.1 0.1 4.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.3 4.6 7.6 11.9 14.7 17.0 16.1 12.6 7.6 3.4 0.8 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
15-1 100.0% 3.4    3.3 0.0
14-2 98.5% 7.5    7.0 0.5 0.0
13-3 88.9% 11.2    8.7 2.4 0.1
12-4 64.0% 10.3    5.3 4.2 0.7 0.0
11-5 29.3% 5.0    1.2 2.3 1.2 0.2 0.0
10-6 5.3% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 38.8% 38.8 26.3 9.6 2.3 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.8% 63.6% 63.6% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-1 3.4% 46.6% 46.6% 12.5 0.0 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.8
14-2 7.6% 43.6% 43.6% 12.9 0.0 1.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 4.3
13-3 12.6% 38.0% 38.0% 13.2 0.7 2.5 1.5 0.1 7.8
12-4 16.1% 31.4% 31.4% 13.6 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 11.0
11-5 17.0% 25.6% 25.6% 13.9 0.1 1.0 2.3 0.9 0.0 12.6
10-6 14.7% 20.2% 20.2% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.0 0.0 11.7
9-7 11.9% 17.5% 17.5% 14.5 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 9.9
8-8 7.6% 13.4% 13.4% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 6.6
7-9 4.6% 9.5% 9.5% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 4.2
6-10 2.3% 6.8% 6.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.2
5-11 1.0% 4.7% 4.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.0
4-12 0.3% 5.7% 5.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3
3-13 0.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 26.3% 26.3% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.1 8.7 9.3 4.4 0.6 73.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.3 1.6 2.5 8.2 36.1 50.8 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%