High Point
Big South
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#125
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#179
Pace70.2#153
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#57
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#240
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.3% 34.9% 27.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.2 13.8
.500 or above 94.7% 97.7% 91.2%
.500 or above in Conference 92.3% 94.6% 89.7%
Conference Champion 43.7% 48.8% 37.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.5% 1.1%
First Four0.6% 0.3% 1.0%
First Round31.0% 34.7% 26.8%
Second Round4.4% 5.5% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.4% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Home) - 53.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 35 - 46 - 6
Quad 415 - 321 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 93-51 98%     1 - 0 +20.8 +13.3 +7.0
  Nov 09, 2024 324   Jackson St. W 80-71 91%     2 - 0 -3.2 +1.4 -4.6
  Nov 12, 2024 283   NC Central W 76-60 87%     3 - 0 +6.7 +9.3 -0.1
  Nov 15, 2024 101   UAB W 80-79 53%    
  Nov 18, 2024 255   American W 75-65 83%    
  Nov 24, 2024 195   Missouri St. W 77-72 67%    
  Dec 03, 2024 174   @ UNC Greensboro W 73-72 51%    
  Dec 06, 2024 73   North Texas L 66-68 43%    
  Dec 14, 2024 203   Appalachian St. W 76-71 68%    
  Dec 21, 2024 161   @ Southern Illinois L 71-72 47%    
  Dec 29, 2024 230   Norfolk St. W 79-70 79%    
  Jan 02, 2025 254   Radford W 81-71 82%    
  Jan 04, 2025 211   @ UNC Asheville W 79-76 58%    
  Jan 08, 2025 303   @ Charleston Southern W 80-73 73%    
  Jan 11, 2025 217   Gardner-Webb W 82-73 78%    
  Jan 15, 2025 167   @ Longwood W 75-74 50%    
  Jan 18, 2025 264   Presbyterian W 84-73 83%    
  Jan 22, 2025 316   @ South Carolina Upstate W 82-74 77%    
  Jan 25, 2025 163   Winthrop W 77-71 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 264   @ Presbyterian W 81-76 67%    
  Feb 05, 2025 254   @ Radford W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 211   UNC Asheville W 82-73 77%    
  Feb 12, 2025 167   Longwood W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 15, 2025 163   @ Winthrop L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 19, 2025 303   Charleston Southern W 83-70 87%    
  Feb 22, 2025 217   @ Gardner-Webb W 79-76 59%    
  Feb 26, 2025 316   South Carolina Upstate W 85-71 89%    
Projected Record 19 - 8 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.1 8.2 11.7 11.1 6.7 2.3 43.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.2 7.8 6.4 2.5 0.4 22.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.6 5.9 3.2 0.7 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.3 2.4 3.9 1.7 0.2 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.8 1.0 0.1 5.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.6 0.0 3.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.7 6.3 9.0 12.4 14.4 15.3 14.3 11.5 6.7 2.3 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 2.3    2.3
15-1 100.0% 6.7    6.5 0.1
14-2 96.2% 11.1    9.9 1.2
13-3 82.1% 11.7    8.6 3.0 0.2
12-4 53.5% 8.2    4.1 3.4 0.7 0.0
11-5 21.8% 3.1    0.7 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
10-6 4.6% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 43.7% 43.7 32.1 9.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.3% 67.3% 66.9% 0.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.8 1.3%
15-1 6.7% 57.6% 57.5% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.8 0.2%
14-2 11.5% 51.1% 51.1% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.1 1.9 2.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.6 0.1%
13-3 14.3% 41.7% 41.7% 13.3 0.0 0.9 2.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 8.3
12-4 15.3% 34.2% 34.2% 13.8 0.3 1.7 2.2 1.0 0.1 10.1
11-5 14.4% 25.3% 25.3% 14.2 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.3 0.2 10.7
10-6 12.4% 20.0% 20.0% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.3 10.0
9-7 9.0% 16.4% 16.4% 14.9 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.3 7.6
8-8 6.3% 9.5% 9.5% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 5.7
7-9 3.7% 9.8% 9.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.4
6-10 2.1% 6.4% 6.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.0
5-11 1.1% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-12 0.5% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-13 0.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 31.3% 31.3% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0 5.6 9.3 8.3 5.2 1.6 68.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 7.6 1.4 1.4 16.9 15.5 7.0 11.3 4.2 7.0 11.3 14.1 9.9