McNeese St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.0#92
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#136
Pace64.7#290
Improvement+0.9#118

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#96
First Shot+2.6#103
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#150
Layup/Dunks+1.7#120
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#112
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#300
Freethrows+3.6#25
Improvement-0.1#184

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#102
First Shot+4.1#65
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#288
Layups/Dunks+9.1#7
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#134
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#315
Freethrows-1.7#296
Improvement+1.0#103
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.8% 57.2% 48.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 13.2
.500 or above 99.4% 99.6% 98.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.8% 99.6%
Conference Champion 76.9% 78.4% 69.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round55.8% 57.2% 48.5%
Second Round10.9% 11.7% 6.8%
Sweet Sixteen2.9% 3.2% 1.7%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Away) - 84.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 35 - 36 - 7
Quad 416 - 222 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 123   South Dakota St. L 73-80 63%     0 - 1 -4.5 -2.5 -1.6
  Nov 11, 2024 7   @ Alabama L 64-72 8%     0 - 2 +13.5 +2.0 +11.1
  Nov 18, 2024 72   North Texas W 68-61 56%     1 - 2 +11.6 +7.6 +4.6
  Nov 22, 2024 160   Illinois St. W 76-68 72%     2 - 2 +7.9 +11.5 -2.6
  Nov 24, 2024 220   Longwood W 84-69 80%     3 - 2 +12.1 +10.9 +1.2
  Nov 25, 2024 77   Liberty L 58-62 46%     3 - 3 +3.1 -1.0 +3.5
  Dec 03, 2024 78   Santa Clara L 67-74 57%     3 - 4 -2.9 +0.6 -4.1
  Dec 14, 2024 28   Mississippi St. L 63-66 25%     3 - 5 +9.9 +0.2 +9.4
  Dec 22, 2024 304   @ Louisiana W 77-66 84%    
  Dec 28, 2024 346   New Orleans W 83-62 97%    
  Dec 30, 2024 230   SE Louisiana W 74-61 88%    
  Jan 04, 2025 357   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 76-60 94%    
  Jan 06, 2025 296   @ Northwestern St. W 72-62 82%    
  Jan 11, 2025 243   Nicholls St. W 76-62 89%    
  Jan 13, 2025 356   @ Houston Christian W 77-61 93%    
  Jan 18, 2025 179   Lamar W 73-63 82%    
  Jan 20, 2025 214   Stephen F. Austin W 69-57 86%    
  Jan 25, 2025 233   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 79-72 73%    
  Jan 27, 2025 190   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 01, 2025 243   @ Nicholls St. W 73-65 75%    
  Feb 03, 2025 307   Incarnate Word W 79-62 94%    
  Feb 08, 2025 296   Northwestern St. W 75-59 92%    
  Feb 10, 2025 357   Texas A&M - Commerce W 79-57 98%    
  Feb 15, 2025 346   @ New Orleans W 80-65 90%    
  Feb 17, 2025 230   @ SE Louisiana W 71-64 73%    
  Feb 22, 2025 190   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76-66 82%    
  Feb 24, 2025 233   UT Rio Grande Valley W 82-69 87%    
  Mar 01, 2025 179   @ Lamar W 70-66 63%    
  Mar 03, 2025 214   Stephen F. Austin W 69-57 85%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 4.6 10.8 17.4 20.0 16.0 7.3 76.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.0 4.7 3.7 1.6 0.2 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.4 6.2 10.2 14.6 19.0 20.3 16.0 7.3 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 7.3    7.3
19-1 100.0% 16.0    15.9 0.1
18-2 98.8% 20.0    19.1 0.9
17-3 91.7% 17.4    14.7 2.6 0.1
16-4 73.7% 10.8    7.1 3.3 0.4 0.0
15-5 44.8% 4.6    1.8 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 14.4% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 76.9% 76.9 66.1 9.4 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 7.3% 76.1% 76.0% 0.1% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 2.3 1.6 0.1 0.0 1.7 0.3%
19-1 16.0% 69.6% 69.6% 12.1 0.0 1.4 7.6 2.0 0.1 4.9
18-2 20.3% 63.8% 63.8% 12.5 0.2 6.3 5.6 0.8 0.0 7.3
17-3 19.0% 57.2% 57.2% 13.0 0.0 2.8 5.8 2.1 0.1 8.1
16-4 14.6% 52.5% 52.5% 13.3 0.0 0.8 3.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 7.0
15-5 10.2% 43.3% 43.3% 13.7 0.1 1.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.8
14-6 6.2% 32.4% 32.4% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.0 4.2
13-7 3.4% 25.2% 25.2% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 2.6
12-8 1.7% 19.0% 19.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.4
11-9 0.9% 10.4% 10.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
10-10 0.4% 6.1% 6.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3
9-11 0.1% 5.4% 5.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
8-12 0.1% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 55.8% 55.8% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 4.0 19.2 19.3 9.5 2.1 0.1 44.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.0% 100.0% 10.4 0.2 1.0 1.9 3.6 3.6 2.8 7.3 10.1 44.5 24.7 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 0.8% 11.3 0.6 0.3