Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#153
Expected Predictive Rating+4.5#101
Pace69.9#141
Improvement+1.6#112

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#150
First Shot+1.2#139
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#209
Layup/Dunks-1.8#251
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#52
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#60
Freethrows-3.6#354
Improvement+2.2#67

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#177
First Shot-1.5#225
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#67
Layups/Dunks+1.3#125
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#223
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#303
Freethrows+0.7#131
Improvement-0.6#212
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.8% 19.6% 14.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.5 13.8
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 98.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.9% 98.3%
Conference Champion 40.2% 43.5% 22.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round18.8% 19.6% 14.3%
Second Round1.3% 1.4% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bowling Green (Home) - 84.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 34 - 35 - 6
Quad 417 - 322 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 123   @ Appalachian St. W 77-63 33%     1 - 0 +19.3 +8.2 +10.8
  Nov 09, 2024 177   Wright St. L 68-81 66%     1 - 1 -16.5 -10.6 -5.7
  Nov 12, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 88-70 95%     2 - 1 -0.1 +15.6 -13.8
  Nov 18, 2024 11   @ Michigan L 67-94 5%     2 - 2 -7.0 -0.2 -5.7
  Nov 25, 2024 270   Siena W 70-58 75%     3 - 2 +5.8 -0.8 +7.2
  Nov 26, 2024 233   Mercer W 75-72 68%     4 - 2 -1.0 -2.9 +1.7
  Dec 02, 2024 275   Air Force W 73-60 83%     5 - 2 +3.8 +5.4 +0.0
  Dec 06, 2024 56   @ Indiana L 57-76 13%     5 - 3 -6.3 -6.2 -0.8
  Dec 18, 2024 211   @ Vermont L 67-75 53%     5 - 4 -7.9 -1.6 -6.4
  Dec 22, 2024 295   Sacred Heart W 94-76 85%     6 - 4 +7.6 +7.6 -1.4
  Jan 04, 2025 329   Buffalo W 93-79 90%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +0.7 +13.2 -12.6
  Jan 07, 2025 250   @ Ball St. W 80-72 62%     8 - 4 2 - 0 +5.7 +5.1 +0.7
  Jan 11, 2025 304   Western Michigan W 91-71 86%     9 - 4 3 - 0 +9.3 +8.2 +0.3
  Jan 14, 2025 356   @ Northern Illinois W 84-69 86%     10 - 4 4 - 0 +4.0 +5.6 -1.8
  Jan 18, 2025 159   @ Kent St. W 70-61 41%     11 - 4 5 - 0 +12.0 +8.4 +4.4
  Jan 21, 2025 285   Bowling Green W 80-69 84%    
  Jan 25, 2025 124   @ Akron L 76-80 33%    
  Jan 28, 2025 313   Eastern Michigan W 81-69 88%    
  Feb 01, 2025 147   Ohio W 79-77 60%    
  Feb 04, 2025 225   @ Central Michigan W 71-69 55%    
  Feb 08, 2025 117   Troy W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 11, 2025 194   Toledo W 82-77 69%    
  Feb 15, 2025 304   @ Western Michigan W 78-72 71%    
  Feb 18, 2025 313   @ Eastern Michigan W 79-72 72%    
  Feb 22, 2025 159   Kent St. W 70-67 63%    
  Feb 25, 2025 356   Northern Illinois W 83-66 95%    
  Mar 01, 2025 147   @ Ohio L 76-79 38%    
  Mar 04, 2025 329   @ Buffalo W 80-71 78%    
  Mar 07, 2025 250   Ball St. W 78-69 79%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 7.1 13.5 11.4 5.3 1.1 40.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 2.2 8.9 11.6 6.0 1.1 0.1 29.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 6.8 6.6 1.9 0.2 17.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.1 0.7 0.0 7.5 4th
5th 0.3 1.5 1.4 0.2 3.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.9 6.5 12.4 17.8 20.6 19.7 12.5 5.4 1.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
17-1 98.3% 5.3    5.0 0.3
16-2 91.5% 11.4    9.2 2.2 0.0
15-3 68.6% 13.5    8.0 5.0 0.5
14-4 34.5% 7.1    2.3 3.5 1.2 0.1
13-5 9.6% 1.7    0.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 40.2% 40.2 25.8 11.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.1% 30.9% 30.9% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.8
17-1 5.4% 30.6% 30.6% 12.6 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.8
16-2 12.5% 30.5% 30.5% 13.1 0.0 0.7 2.1 0.9 0.0 8.7
15-3 19.7% 23.2% 23.2% 13.4 0.4 2.2 1.8 0.2 15.1
14-4 20.6% 19.0% 19.0% 13.7 0.1 1.2 2.2 0.4 16.7
13-5 17.8% 13.7% 13.7% 14.2 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.7 0.0 15.4
12-6 12.4% 10.3% 10.3% 14.4 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 11.1
11-7 6.5% 9.5% 9.5% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 5.9
10-8 2.9% 4.9% 4.9% 14.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.7
9-9 0.9% 3.5% 3.5% 15.0 0.0 0.8
8-10 0.3% 7.4% 7.4% 15.0 0.0 0.3
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.8% 18.8% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.1 2.2 6.6 7.5 2.2 0.1 81.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.6 4.0 36.0 52.0 8.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%