Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#124
Expected Predictive Rating+1.2#151
Pace63.1#323
Improvement-3.3#338

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#136
First Shot+2.9#95
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#279
Layup/Dunks+0.7#152
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#177
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#125
Freethrows+0.9#121
Improvement-3.7#358

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#138
First Shot+1.8#118
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#240
Layups/Dunks-1.4#224
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#334
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#13
Freethrows-0.3#212
Improvement+0.4#150
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.8% 9.1% 6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.2 12.8
.500 or above 65.1% 81.2% 59.9%
.500 or above in Conference 66.0% 73.9% 63.5%
Conference Champion 4.2% 6.1% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.2% 2.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round6.8% 9.1% 6.1%
Second Round0.9% 1.5% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska (Neutral) - 24.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 42 - 7
Quad 36 - 58 - 12
Quad 47 - 216 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 33   @ Pittsburgh L 68-83 12%     0 - 1 +0.4 +3.2 -2.9
  Nov 16, 2024 131   @ Middle Tennessee W 88-67 41%     1 - 1 +25.7 +21.0 +5.4
  Nov 20, 2024 359   Maryland Eastern Shore W 79-61 95%     2 - 1 +0.9 +3.5 -1.2
  Nov 22, 2024 148   Utah Valley L 75-77 69%     2 - 2 -4.6 +6.0 -10.7
  Nov 26, 2024 145   Texas Arlington W 79-66 57%     3 - 2 +13.5 +2.4 +10.8
  Dec 03, 2024 290   Evansville W 63-61 87%     4 - 2 1 - 0 -7.8 -8.4 +0.7
  Dec 08, 2024 289   Southeast Missouri St. W 73-53 87%     5 - 2 +10.2 +7.3 +5.7
  Dec 14, 2024 105   @ Western Kentucky L 76-81 OT 31%     5 - 3 +2.4 -2.9 +6.1
  Dec 18, 2024 150   @ Indiana St. L 74-84 46%     5 - 4 1 - 1 -6.7 -0.8 -5.8
  Dec 22, 2024 53   Nebraska L 66-74 24%    
  Jan 02, 2025 153   Illinois St. W 71-66 69%    
  Jan 05, 2025 67   @ Drake L 59-68 20%    
  Jan 08, 2025 98   @ Northern Iowa L 65-71 29%    
  Jan 11, 2025 226   Valparaiso W 76-67 79%    
  Jan 15, 2025 199   @ Illinois-Chicago W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 18, 2025 79   Bradley L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 22, 2025 168   @ Southern Illinois W 69-68 50%    
  Jan 25, 2025 133   Belmont W 78-74 63%    
  Jan 29, 2025 290   @ Evansville W 72-66 71%    
  Feb 01, 2025 194   @ Missouri St. W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 04, 2025 67   Drake L 62-65 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 226   @ Valparaiso W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 11, 2025 199   Illinois-Chicago W 74-67 74%    
  Feb 16, 2025 98   Northern Iowa L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 19, 2025 168   Southern Illinois W 71-65 70%    
  Feb 22, 2025 79   @ Bradley L 65-73 25%    
  Feb 25, 2025 150   Indiana St. W 79-74 67%    
  Mar 02, 2025 133   @ Belmont L 75-77 42%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.3 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 8.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.1 5.0 2.9 0.7 0.0 12.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 4.0 6.1 3.1 0.5 0.0 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.1 6.7 2.9 0.4 0.0 14.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.8 2.8 0.4 0.0 12.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.4 4.9 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 3.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.8 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.7 6.3 9.1 12.0 13.8 14.5 12.8 10.4 7.2 4.2 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 97.4% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 87.2% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 62.1% 1.3    0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 29.9% 1.3    0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0
14-6 7.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 2.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 40.9% 27.3% 13.6% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.8%
18-2 0.2% 35.3% 34.5% 0.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3%
17-3 0.8% 27.7% 27.4% 0.3% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.4%
16-4 2.0% 24.2% 24.2% 11.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.5
15-5 4.2% 23.6% 23.6% 12.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.2
14-6 7.2% 15.1% 15.1% 12.3 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.1
13-7 10.4% 11.1% 11.1% 12.5 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.3
12-8 12.8% 7.5% 7.5% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 11.8
11-9 14.5% 5.7% 5.7% 12.9 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 13.6
10-10 13.8% 3.4% 3.4% 13.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 13.3
9-11 12.0% 2.3% 2.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.7
8-12 9.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.0
7-13 6.3% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.3
6-14 3.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.7
5-15 1.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.7
4-16 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.3 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 93.2 0.0%