Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#156
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#160
Pace62.7#326
Improvement-3.0#309

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#193
First Shot+0.4#156
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#253
Layup/Dunks-0.8#216
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#245
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#176
Freethrows+2.1#63
Improvement-3.7#329

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#139
First Shot+1.0#144
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#179
Layups/Dunks-2.1#266
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#324
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#9
Freethrows-0.4#210
Improvement+0.7#146
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 3.9% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.1 14.1
.500 or above 31.5% 64.1% 21.8%
.500 or above in Conference 38.8% 80.3% 26.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.9% 3.9% 2.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Away) - 23.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 22 - 43 - 6
Quad 36 - 79 - 13
Quad 46 - 315 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 52   @ Pittsburgh L 68-83 12%     0 - 1 -1.8 +0.7 -2.7
  Nov 16, 2024 122   @ Middle Tennessee W 88-67 34%     1 - 1 +25.8 +20.5 +5.9
  Nov 20, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 79-61 97%     2 - 1 -3.0 +2.9 -4.5
  Nov 22, 2024 125   Utah Valley L 75-77 54%     2 - 2 -2.5 +6.6 -9.1
  Nov 26, 2024 205   Texas Arlington W 79-66 61%     3 - 2 +10.6 +1.3 +9.0
  Dec 03, 2024 237   Evansville W 63-61 75%     4 - 2 1 - 0 -4.6 -5.3 +0.8
  Dec 08, 2024 217   Southeast Missouri St. W 73-53 72%     5 - 2 +14.3 +9.0 +8.1
  Dec 14, 2024 135   @ Western Kentucky L 76-81 OT 37%     5 - 3 -1.1 -5.0 +4.7
  Dec 18, 2024 203   @ Indiana St. L 74-84 51%     5 - 4 1 - 1 -9.7 -1.3 -8.3
  Dec 22, 2024 48   Nebraska L 49-66 16%     5 - 5 -6.0 -15.0 +8.0
  Dec 23, 2024 235   Charlotte L 90-94 2OT 67%     5 - 6 -8.0 +2.6 -10.0
  Dec 25, 2024 110   Loyola Chicago W 71-68 39%     6 - 6 +6.4 +6.2 +0.3
  Jan 02, 2025 127   Illinois St. L 68-74 55%     6 - 7 1 - 2 -6.8 -1.0 -6.5
  Jan 05, 2025 74   @ Drake W 66-59 18%     7 - 7 2 - 2 +17.3 +10.8 +7.9
  Jan 08, 2025 100   @ Northern Iowa W 71-68 26%     8 - 7 3 - 2 +10.1 +11.7 -1.2
  Jan 11, 2025 238   Valparaiso W 58-47 76%     9 - 7 4 - 2 +4.3 -13.3 +18.8
  Jan 15, 2025 147   @ Illinois-Chicago L 93-97 2OT 39%     9 - 8 4 - 3 -0.7 +1.7 -1.6
  Jan 18, 2025 94   Bradley L 61-74 42%     9 - 9 4 - 4 -10.4 -6.6 -4.8
  Jan 22, 2025 179   @ Southern Illinois W 74-64 46%     10 - 9 5 - 4 +11.5 +8.5 +3.9
  Jan 25, 2025 140   Belmont L 77-95 57%     10 - 10 5 - 5 -19.4 +3.2 -23.6
  Jan 29, 2025 237   @ Evansville L 74-78 58%     10 - 11 5 - 6 -5.5 +11.9 -17.9
  Feb 01, 2025 219   @ Missouri St. L 56-77 54%     10 - 12 5 - 7 -21.6 -13.9 -8.3
  Feb 04, 2025 74   Drake L 45-55 32%     10 - 13 5 - 8 -4.8 -6.4 -2.7
  Feb 08, 2025 238   @ Valparaiso W 74-56 58%     11 - 13 6 - 8 +16.4 +5.1 +12.8
  Feb 11, 2025 147   Illinois-Chicago W 63-53 59%     12 - 13 7 - 8 +8.2 -1.2 +11.0
  Feb 17, 2025 100   Northern Iowa L 67-74 34%     12 - 14 7 - 9 -2.4 -2.4 -0.2
  Feb 19, 2025 179   @ Southern Illinois W 62-60 46%     13 - 14 8 - 9 +3.5 -3.5 +7.2
  Feb 22, 2025 94   @ Bradley L 64-71 23%    
  Feb 25, 2025 203   Indiana St. W 78-73 70%    
  Mar 02, 2025 140   @ Belmont L 75-78 37%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 2.1 4.1 6.2 4th
5th 1.8 18.9 2.4 23.1 5th
6th 14.8 10.2 25.0 6th
7th 0.2 25.1 1.1 26.4 7th
8th 5.7 4.7 10.4 8th
9th 7.0 0.1 7.1 9th
10th 1.9 1.9 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 14.8 46.4 32.3 6.5 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 6.5% 4.9% 4.9% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 6.2
10-10 32.3% 3.3% 3.3% 13.4 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 31.2
9-11 46.4% 2.4% 2.4% 14.2 0.1 0.7 0.4 45.3
8-12 14.8% 2.3% 2.3% 15.1 0.3 0.0 14.5
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.0 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.4 3.1 56.3 40.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8%
Lose Out 6.4%