New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.0#56
Expected Predictive Rating+19.7#8
Pace93.2#1
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#72
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#49
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 2.0% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 4.0% 8.8% 2.6%
Top 6 Seed 9.6% 19.1% 6.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.7% 60.5% 36.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 31.8% 50.6% 26.7%
Average Seed 8.6 7.9 8.9
.500 or above 94.8% 98.4% 93.7%
.500 or above in Conference 88.7% 93.8% 87.3%
Conference Champion 17.9% 25.0% 15.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four8.1% 9.1% 7.8%
First Round37.4% 55.5% 32.1%
Second Round18.9% 30.4% 15.5%
Sweet Sixteen6.6% 11.6% 5.1%
Elite Eight2.6% 4.7% 2.0%
Final Four0.9% 1.9% 0.6%
Championship Game0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: St. John's (Away) - 22.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 4
Quad 24 - 37 - 7
Quad 36 - 212 - 9
Quad 49 - 121 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 212   Nicholls St. W 91-84 91%     1 - 0 +1.2 -0.7 +0.6
  Nov 08, 2024 30   UCLA W 72-64 37%     2 - 0 +20.4 +2.6 +17.2
  Nov 12, 2024 219   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 100-81 91%     3 - 0 +13.0 +7.9 +1.9
  Nov 17, 2024 18   @ St. John's L 81-89 23%    
  Nov 21, 2024 241   Grambling St. W 85-69 93%    
  Nov 24, 2024 257   Texas Southern W 88-71 94%    
  Nov 28, 2024 72   Arizona St. W 83-82 55%    
  Dec 04, 2024 251   San Jose St. W 88-72 93%    
  Dec 07, 2024 147   New Mexico St. W 84-73 84%    
  Dec 18, 2024 54   Virginia Commonwealth W 81-78 59%    
  Dec 28, 2024 91   @ Colorado St. W 80-79 51%    
  Dec 31, 2024 234   @ Fresno St. W 90-81 80%    
  Jan 03, 2025 46   Nevada W 80-78 57%    
  Jan 07, 2025 196   @ Wyoming W 85-77 75%    
  Jan 11, 2025 55   San Diego St. W 78-75 60%    
  Jan 14, 2025 251   @ San Jose St. W 85-75 81%    
  Jan 17, 2025 47   Boise St. W 81-79 57%    
  Jan 20, 2025 234   Fresno St. W 93-78 91%    
  Jan 25, 2025 94   @ UNLV W 81-80 51%    
  Feb 01, 2025 43   @ Utah St. L 83-88 35%    
  Feb 05, 2025 91   Colorado St. W 82-76 70%    
  Feb 08, 2025 286   @ Air Force W 81-68 86%    
  Feb 12, 2025 196   Wyoming W 88-74 88%    
  Feb 16, 2025 43   Utah St. W 86-85 55%    
  Feb 19, 2025 47   @ Boise St. L 78-82 37%    
  Feb 25, 2025 55   @ San Diego St. L 75-78 39%    
  Mar 01, 2025 286   Air Force W 84-65 95%    
  Mar 04, 2025 46   @ Nevada L 77-81 37%    
  Mar 07, 2025 94   UNLV W 84-77 71%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.6 5.3 3.5 1.6 0.3 17.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.9 6.2 4.4 1.2 0.1 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.5 6.6 3.1 0.5 0.0 15.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.9 5.9 2.4 0.3 15.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.7 4.4 1.7 0.1 13.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.8 3.1 1.0 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.1 4.9 7.6 9.9 11.6 13.0 13.4 11.6 9.5 6.6 3.6 1.6 0.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.6    1.6 0.0
18-2 96.3% 3.5    3.1 0.4 0.0
17-3 81.0% 5.3    3.8 1.5 0.1
16-4 48.9% 4.6    2.1 2.0 0.5 0.0
15-5 17.8% 2.1    0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.2% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.9% 17.9 11.5 4.9 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 51.0% 49.0% 2.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.6% 99.2% 41.1% 58.0% 3.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.6%
18-2 3.6% 98.6% 40.6% 58.0% 5.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.7%
17-3 6.6% 94.4% 34.4% 60.0% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.4 91.5%
16-4 9.5% 84.1% 27.3% 56.7% 8.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.1 1.5 78.1%
15-5 11.6% 69.4% 19.5% 49.9% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.6 2.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 3.6 62.0%
14-6 13.4% 49.7% 15.5% 34.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 3.1 0.5 6.7 40.4%
13-7 13.0% 31.6% 11.0% 20.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 0.6 0.0 8.9 23.2%
12-8 11.6% 17.0% 7.0% 10.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 9.6 10.7%
11-9 9.9% 7.6% 4.2% 3.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.2 3.5%
10-10 7.6% 3.7% 3.1% 0.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.3 0.6%
9-11 4.9% 2.7% 2.6% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.7 0.1%
8-12 3.1% 1.2% 1.2% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
7-13 1.8% 0.7% 0.7% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
6-14 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 0.9
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 41.7% 14.6% 27.1% 8.6 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.0 2.5 3.1 3.2 3.8 5.3 6.7 10.8 2.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 58.3 31.8%