New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#70
Expected Predictive Rating+10.0#61
Pace81.5#3
Improvement-1.3#267

Offense
Total Offense+4.8#58
First Shot+4.3#62
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#153
Layup/Dunks+6.0#24
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#237
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#273
Freethrows+2.3#63
Improvement+0.2#154

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#89
First Shot+1.0#135
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#37
Layups/Dunks+1.7#114
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#50
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#285
Freethrows+0.3#167
Improvement-1.5#302
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.4% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.9% 26.0% 15.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.3% 14.2% 6.1%
Average Seed 10.1 9.9 10.6
.500 or above 97.2% 99.1% 95.2%
.500 or above in Conference 90.1% 95.2% 84.2%
Conference Champion 14.3% 19.7% 8.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four4.5% 5.7% 3.2%
First Round18.5% 23.1% 13.4%
Second Round7.0% 9.2% 4.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 2.6% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Away) - 53.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 5
Quad 25 - 37 - 8
Quad 36 - 212 - 10
Quad 49 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 241   Nicholls St. W 91-84 92%     1 - 0 -0.5 -0.4 -1.4
  Nov 08, 2024 14   UCLA W 72-64 25%     2 - 0 +23.3 +4.9 +17.8
  Nov 12, 2024 186   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 100-81 88%     3 - 0 +14.7 +8.5 +3.0
  Nov 17, 2024 13   @ St. John's L 71-85 16%     3 - 1 +4.9 +8.0 -3.2
  Nov 21, 2024 308   Grambling St. W 80-58 95%     4 - 1 +10.9 -7.3 +15.6
  Nov 24, 2024 306   Texas Southern W 99-68 95%     5 - 1 +20.1 +11.5 +5.4
  Nov 28, 2024 62   Arizona St. L 82-85 47%     5 - 2 +6.0 +10.8 -4.7
  Nov 29, 2024 76   USC W 83-73 53%     6 - 2 +17.5 +11.8 +5.4
  Dec 04, 2024 189   San Jose St. W 83-77 88%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +1.7 +5.6 -3.9
  Dec 07, 2024 201   New Mexico St. L 83-89 OT 88%     7 - 3 -10.8 +0.0 -10.2
  Dec 18, 2024 57   Virginia Commonwealth W 78-71 57%     8 - 3 +13.5 +7.3 +5.9
  Dec 28, 2024 104   @ Colorado St. W 78-77 53%    
  Dec 31, 2024 257   @ Fresno St. W 87-77 84%    
  Jan 03, 2025 52   Nevada W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 07, 2025 161   @ Wyoming W 79-74 69%    
  Jan 11, 2025 41   San Diego St. W 76-75 51%    
  Jan 14, 2025 189   @ San Jose St. W 82-75 72%    
  Jan 17, 2025 58   Boise St. W 80-78 57%    
  Jan 20, 2025 257   Fresno St. W 90-74 93%    
  Jan 25, 2025 108   @ UNLV W 77-76 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 54   @ Utah St. L 79-84 33%    
  Feb 05, 2025 104   Colorado St. W 81-74 73%    
  Feb 08, 2025 271   @ Air Force W 78-67 84%    
  Feb 12, 2025 161   Wyoming W 82-71 85%    
  Feb 16, 2025 54   Utah St. W 82-81 55%    
  Feb 19, 2025 58   @ Boise St. L 77-81 35%    
  Feb 25, 2025 41   @ San Diego St. L 73-79 30%    
  Mar 01, 2025 271   Air Force W 81-64 94%    
  Mar 04, 2025 52   @ Nevada L 74-79 33%    
  Mar 07, 2025 108   UNLV W 80-73 74%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.4 3.9 2.0 0.6 0.1 14.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.8 6.2 3.2 0.6 0.0 16.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.8 6.6 2.5 0.3 0.0 17.0 3rd
4th 0.3 1.9 5.9 6.7 2.1 0.1 17.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.6 5.8 1.7 0.1 15.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.9 3.4 0.9 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.4 1.7 0.4 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.8 5.0 8.0 11.4 14.3 15.5 14.2 11.5 7.9 4.5 2.0 0.6 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 97.9% 2.0    1.8 0.1
17-3 86.4% 3.9    2.8 1.0 0.1
16-4 56.3% 4.4    2.2 1.9 0.4 0.0
15-5 22.8% 2.6    0.6 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.4% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.3% 14.3 8.2 4.5 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 40.0% 60.0% 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 98.9% 40.3% 58.7% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.2%
18-2 2.0% 87.0% 31.8% 55.2% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 80.9%
17-3 4.5% 72.8% 30.0% 42.8% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.2 61.2%
16-4 7.9% 52.0% 22.3% 29.7% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.7 0.1 3.8 38.3%
15-5 11.5% 33.5% 17.5% 16.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 0.2 7.6 19.4%
14-6 14.2% 20.9% 14.3% 6.6% 10.9 0.0 0.5 2.1 0.4 11.3 7.7%
13-7 15.5% 13.0% 10.5% 2.5% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.5 0.4 13.5 2.8%
12-8 14.3% 8.0% 7.2% 0.8% 11.3 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 13.1 0.9%
11-9 11.4% 5.2% 5.0% 0.3% 11.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 10.8 0.3%
10-10 8.0% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.7 0.0%
9-11 5.0% 2.4% 2.4% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.9
8-12 2.8% 1.9% 1.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
7-13 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 13.0 0.0 1.4
6-14 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 0.5
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 20.9% 11.8% 9.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.1 4.4 9.4 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 79.1 10.3%