San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#250
Expected Predictive Rating-19.4#360
Pace62.4#342
Improvement+2.7#7

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#211
First Shot-4.1#290
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#53
Layup/Dunks-3.1#280
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#292
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#206
Freethrows+1.8#84
Improvement+1.2#39

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#274
First Shot-4.3#303
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#105
Layups/Dunks-4.9#330
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#7
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#310
Freethrows+1.3#114
Improvement+1.5#35
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.6 15.6
.500 or above 0.9% 1.9% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 3.5% 5.1% 2.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 29.2% 23.4% 32.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UTEP (Neutral) - 35.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 6
Quad 21 - 61 - 12
Quad 32 - 73 - 19
Quad 44 - 57 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 326   Western Illinois L 55-59 76%     0 - 1 -16.2 -13.9 -2.9
  Nov 08, 2024 291   Pacific L 67-80 59%     0 - 2 -19.8 -10.7 -8.7
  Nov 10, 2024 175   @ Hawaii L 69-80 26%     0 - 3 -8.8 +5.5 -15.5
  Nov 17, 2024 130   UC Santa Barbara L 59-64 36%     0 - 4 -5.9 -3.6 -3.4
  Nov 20, 2024 78   @ USC L 68-82 9%     0 - 5 -3.8 +5.0 -10.1
  Nov 25, 2024 174   UTEP L 68-72 35%    
  Nov 26, 2024 171   UNC Greensboro L 65-69 35%    
  Nov 27, 2024 263   Long Beach St. W 67-66 52%    
  Dec 04, 2024 64   @ New Mexico L 67-83 7%    
  Dec 14, 2024 269   Cal Poly W 75-71 64%    
  Dec 21, 2024 161   Kennesaw St. L 77-79 44%    
  Dec 28, 2024 42   Boise St. L 62-75 13%    
  Dec 31, 2024 101   Colorado St. L 64-70 28%    
  Jan 04, 2025 89   @ UNLV L 61-75 11%    
  Jan 07, 2025 45   Utah St. L 68-80 15%    
  Jan 11, 2025 292   @ Air Force L 64-65 47%    
  Jan 14, 2025 64   New Mexico L 70-80 18%    
  Jan 18, 2025 40   @ Nevada L 58-77 5%    
  Jan 25, 2025 182   Wyoming L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 28, 2025 63   @ San Diego St. L 57-73 8%    
  Feb 01, 2025 292   Air Force W 67-62 67%    
  Feb 04, 2025 255   @ Fresno St. L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 07, 2025 42   @ Boise St. L 59-78 5%    
  Feb 11, 2025 63   San Diego St. L 60-70 19%    
  Feb 14, 2025 40   Nevada L 61-74 13%    
  Feb 19, 2025 45   @ Utah St. L 65-83 6%    
  Feb 22, 2025 182   @ Wyoming L 66-72 29%    
  Feb 25, 2025 89   UNLV L 64-72 25%    
  Mar 04, 2025 101   @ Colorado St. L 61-73 14%    
  Mar 08, 2025 255   Fresno St. W 73-70 61%    
Projected Record 7 - 23 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.7 1.8 0.4 0.1 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.9 5.4 2.6 0.6 0.1 18.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 6.7 8.7 5.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 25.3 9th
10th 0.3 3.6 9.0 8.4 3.7 0.7 0.1 25.9 10th
11th 1.4 5.0 6.7 4.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 18.5 11th
Total 1.4 5.3 10.4 14.9 17.0 15.6 12.9 9.4 6.1 3.6 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 25.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 5.3% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.2% 1.7% 1.7% 13.0 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
11-9 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
10-10 1.9% 0.8% 0.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
9-11 3.6% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6
8-12 6.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.1
7-13 9.4% 9.4
6-14 12.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.9
5-15 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.6
4-16 17.0% 17.0
3-17 14.9% 14.9
2-18 10.4% 10.4
1-19 5.3% 5.3
0-20 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%