San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#146
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#185
Pace65.0#269
Improvement+6.6#5

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#121
First Shot+2.0#116
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#191
Layup/Dunks+0.8#144
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#151
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#217
Freethrows+2.0#70
Improvement+3.2#29

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#202
First Shot-0.9#205
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#183
Layups/Dunks-3.9#318
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#101
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#183
Freethrows+1.7#67
Improvement+3.4#30
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.9 15.4
.500 or above 7.4% 8.6% 1.6%
.500 or above in Conference 8.0% 9.4% 1.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 1.3%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Home) - 83.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 50 - 6
Quad 22 - 62 - 12
Quad 34 - 46 - 15
Quad 47 - 313 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 354   Western Illinois L 55-59 93%     0 - 1 -19.9 -16.5 -4.0
  Nov 08, 2024 295   Pacific L 67-80 79%     0 - 2 -20.5 -12.2 -7.9
  Nov 10, 2024 190   @ Hawaii L 69-80 49%     0 - 3 -9.8 +4.9 -15.9
  Nov 17, 2024 170   UC Santa Barbara L 59-64 65%     0 - 4 -7.9 -3.4 -5.5
  Nov 20, 2024 59   @ USC L 68-82 16%     0 - 5 -2.2 +6.5 -10.0
  Nov 25, 2024 148   UTEP W 71-65 50%     1 - 5 +7.1 +1.5 +5.7
  Nov 26, 2024 147   UNC Greensboro W 69-64 50%     2 - 5 +6.1 +1.3 +5.1
  Nov 27, 2024 290   Long Beach St. W 82-66 79%     3 - 5 +8.7 +15.3 -4.3
  Dec 04, 2024 49   @ New Mexico L 77-83 13%     3 - 6 0 - 1 +7.3 +11.4 -4.1
  Dec 14, 2024 268   Cal Poly W 107-100 OT 82%     4 - 6 -1.5 +5.3 -8.4
  Dec 21, 2024 166   Kennesaw St. W 89-65 64%     5 - 6 +21.5 +9.2 +10.6
  Dec 28, 2024 54   Boise St. L 71-73 27%     5 - 7 0 - 2 +5.5 +13.0 -7.9
  Dec 31, 2024 79   Colorado St. L 50-72 36%     5 - 8 0 - 3 -17.2 -20.4 +3.5
  Jan 04, 2025 98   @ UNLV L 73-79 27%     5 - 9 0 - 4 +1.4 +10.5 -9.7
  Jan 07, 2025 42   Utah St. L 78-85 23%     5 - 10 0 - 5 +1.7 +13.7 -12.5
  Jan 11, 2025 273   @ Air Force W 69-62 68%     6 - 10 1 - 5 +3.2 +3.1 +0.9
  Jan 14, 2025 49   New Mexico W 71-70 25%     7 - 10 2 - 5 +9.3 +1.7 +7.5
  Jan 18, 2025 89   @ Nevada L 64-75 23%     7 - 11 2 - 6 -2.0 +6.3 -10.2
  Jan 25, 2025 175   Wyoming W 67-58 66%     8 - 11 3 - 6 +5.9 +1.4 +5.5
  Jan 28, 2025 48   @ San Diego St. L 68-71 13%     8 - 12 3 - 7 +10.3 +7.3 +2.9
  Feb 01, 2025 273   Air Force W 72-62 83%    
  Feb 04, 2025 255   @ Fresno St. W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 07, 2025 54   @ Boise St. L 66-77 13%    
  Feb 11, 2025 48   San Diego St. L 64-71 27%    
  Feb 14, 2025 89   Nevada L 66-69 42%    
  Feb 19, 2025 42   @ Utah St. L 69-82 12%    
  Feb 22, 2025 175   @ Wyoming L 67-68 45%    
  Feb 25, 2025 98   UNLV L 69-70 48%    
  Mar 04, 2025 79   @ Colorado St. L 65-74 19%    
  Mar 08, 2025 255   Fresno St. W 80-71 82%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.4 3.8 0.7 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.2 3.0 10.3 9.1 1.9 0.1 24.5 7th
8th 0.5 5.5 14.1 11.0 2.0 0.0 33.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 7.4 12.7 8.2 1.2 0.0 30.8 9th
10th 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.3 2.0 8.5 18.5 25.3 23.0 14.4 6.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.2
11-9 1.5% 2.1% 2.1% 12.0 0.0 1.4
10-10 6.3% 1.6% 1.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.2
9-11 14.4% 0.6% 0.6% 13.6 0.0 0.1 14.3
8-12 23.0% 0.5% 0.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 22.9
7-13 25.3% 0.2% 0.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 25.3
6-14 18.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 18.4
5-15 8.5% 8.5
4-16 2.0% 2.0
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%