South Carolina Upstate
Big South
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.5#313
Expected Predictive Rating-9.8#307
Pace75.4#50
Improvement+2.0#24

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#273
First Shot-0.1#186
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#338
Layup/Dunks-0.2#179
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#182
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#134
Freethrows-1.0#238
Improvement+0.9#69

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#334
First Shot-4.4#306
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#235
Layups/Dunks-3.3#282
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#203
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#202
Freethrows-0.7#228
Improvement+1.1#53
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.7% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 3.2% 8.9% 2.0%
.500 or above in Conference 16.8% 25.0% 15.1%
Conference Champion 1.1% 2.3% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 38.2% 28.7% 40.1%
First Four1.1% 1.5% 1.0%
First Round1.1% 2.1% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Away) - 17.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 82 - 14
Quad 46 - 88 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 52   @ North Carolina St. L 66-97 4%     0 - 1 -18.7 -5.3 -11.4
  Nov 08, 2024 118   @ Virginia Tech L 74-93 9%     0 - 2 -12.6 +2.7 -14.7
  Nov 13, 2024 75   @ Wake Forest L 80-85 5%     0 - 3 +5.7 +9.8 -3.9
  Nov 15, 2024 150   UNC Wilmington L 85-89 28%     0 - 4 -6.6 +0.3 -6.4
  Nov 22, 2024 188   @ East Tennessee St. L 72-82 17%    
  Nov 23, 2024 297   Queens L 80-81 46%    
  Nov 26, 2024 41   @ Iowa L 71-94 2%    
  Nov 30, 2024 295   @ Coastal Carolina L 70-74 34%    
  Dec 07, 2024 258   @ Western Carolina L 70-77 28%    
  Dec 14, 2024 72   @ South Carolina L 66-85 4%    
  Dec 18, 2024 314   South Carolina St. W 77-74 61%    
  Dec 21, 2024 192   Youngstown St. L 75-79 36%    
  Jan 02, 2025 195   @ Winthrop L 74-84 18%    
  Jan 08, 2025 279   Presbyterian W 77-76 52%    
  Jan 11, 2025 226   Radford L 75-77 41%    
  Jan 15, 2025 176   @ UNC Asheville L 72-83 18%    
  Jan 18, 2025 219   @ Gardner-Webb L 73-82 22%    
  Jan 22, 2025 125   High Point L 75-83 24%    
  Jan 25, 2025 179   @ Longwood L 67-78 18%    
  Jan 29, 2025 310   Charleston Southern W 78-75 60%    
  Feb 01, 2025 226   @ Radford L 72-80 23%    
  Feb 05, 2025 279   @ Presbyterian L 74-79 32%    
  Feb 08, 2025 195   Winthrop L 77-81 37%    
  Feb 12, 2025 176   UNC Asheville L 75-80 35%    
  Feb 15, 2025 219   Gardner-Webb L 76-79 40%    
  Feb 22, 2025 310   @ Charleston Southern L 75-78 39%    
  Feb 26, 2025 125   @ High Point L 72-86 11%    
  Mar 01, 2025 179   Longwood L 70-75 35%    
Projected Record 7 - 21 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.7 2.1 0.3 0.0 5.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.0 3.0 0.5 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 5.2 4.5 0.8 0.0 12.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.9 5.7 1.2 0.0 16.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 5.4 8.6 5.9 1.2 0.0 22.6 8th
9th 1.4 5.0 8.2 7.7 3.9 0.8 0.0 27.0 9th
Total 1.4 5.1 9.5 13.4 15.0 15.2 13.2 10.4 7.1 4.6 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
13-3 90.0% 0.2    0.2 0.1
12-4 59.1% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
11-5 25.0% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 4.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.1% 24.0% 24.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.3% 21.0% 21.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-4 0.6% 14.2% 14.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
11-5 1.4% 12.2% 12.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.2
10-6 2.7% 6.8% 6.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.5
9-7 4.6% 5.5% 5.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 4.3
8-8 7.1% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 6.9
7-9 10.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.2 10.2
6-10 13.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 13.0
5-11 15.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 15.1
4-12 15.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.0
3-13 13.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.4
2-14 9.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.5
1-15 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.1
0-16 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.3 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%