Texas A&M - Commerce
Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.5#354
Expected Predictive Rating-14.7#347
Pace67.5#215
Improvement-1.7#256

Offense
Total Offense-8.4#354
First Shot-7.6#351
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#243
Layup/Dunks-4.1#318
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#303
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#131
Freethrows-2.6#319
Improvement-1.4#269

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#323
First Shot-4.1#306
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#271
Layups/Dunks-4.3#325
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#43
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#274
Freethrows+0.3#161
Improvement-0.3#197
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 88.5% 82.0% 88.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa (Away) - 0.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 30 - 80 - 14
Quad 45 - 125 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 52   @ Iowa L 66-93 1%    
  Nov 06, 2024 269   @ South Dakota L 76-86 16%    
  Nov 08, 2024 21   @ Texas A&M L 55-87 1%     0 - 1 -13.9 -5.8 -9.5
  Nov 13, 2024 218   Southern W 70-68 24%     1 - 1 -4.0 -2.6 -1.3
  Nov 19, 2024 24   @ Connecticut L 46-81 1%     1 - 2 -17.2 -23.8 +7.6
  Nov 21, 2024 45   @ Oklahoma L 56-84 1%     1 - 3 -14.1 -11.2 -3.2
  Nov 25, 2024 316   @ Stonehill L 65-67 24%     1 - 4 -8.1 -1.9 -6.5
  Nov 30, 2024 145   Purdue Fort Wayne L 57-77 13%     1 - 5 -21.4 -15.3 -7.5
  Dec 05, 2024 308   @ Houston Christian L 79-83 22%     1 - 6 0 - 1 -9.5 +4.3 -13.9
  Dec 07, 2024 309   @ Incarnate Word L 53-65 23%     1 - 7 0 - 2 -17.6 -20.6 +1.8
  Dec 15, 2024 125   South Alabama L 72-81 11%     1 - 8 -9.4 +3.1 -12.8
  Dec 18, 2024 242   Abilene Christian W 68-67 27%     2 - 8 -6.1 -6.1 -0.1
  Dec 21, 2024 154   @ South Florida L 62-88 7%     2 - 9 -22.7 -11.1 -11.0
  Jan 04, 2025 73   McNeese St. L 56-75 5%     2 - 10 0 - 3 -14.1 -13.0 -1.5
  Jan 06, 2025 211   Nicholls St. L 61-83 22%     2 - 11 0 - 4 -27.4 -9.3 -20.2
  Jan 11, 2025 284   @ Northwestern St. L 67-75 19%     2 - 12 0 - 5 -12.3 -6.6 -5.8
  Jan 13, 2025 239   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 55-57 14%     2 - 13 0 - 6 -3.6 -11.2 +7.3
  Jan 18, 2025 345   New Orleans L 73-82 55%     2 - 14 0 - 7 -23.7 -10.7 -12.5
  Jan 20, 2025 219   SE Louisiana L 68-76 24%     2 - 15 0 - 8 -14.0 -6.4 -7.6
  Jan 25, 2025 222   @ Lamar L 61-74 11%    
  Jan 27, 2025 252   @ Stephen F. Austin L 58-69 13%    
  Feb 01, 2025 284   Northwestern St. L 65-69 37%    
  Feb 03, 2025 180   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 67-77 19%    
  Feb 08, 2025 211   @ Nicholls St. L 65-79 10%    
  Feb 10, 2025 73   @ McNeese St. L 56-80 1%    
  Feb 15, 2025 222   Lamar L 64-71 26%    
  Feb 17, 2025 252   Stephen F. Austin L 61-67 31%    
  Feb 22, 2025 219   @ SE Louisiana L 62-75 11%    
  Feb 24, 2025 345   @ New Orleans L 71-75 34%    
  Mar 01, 2025 309   Incarnate Word L 70-72 41%    
  Mar 03, 2025 308   Houston Christian L 67-70 42%    
Projected Record 5 - 26 3 - 17




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.3 10th
11th 0.4 3.1 7.0 4.6 1.2 0.1 16.4 11th
12th 5.8 16.6 24.1 19.5 9.8 1.8 0.1 77.7 12th
Total 5.8 16.6 24.5 22.7 17.3 8.3 3.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12 0.4% 0.4
7-13 1.2% 1.2
6-14 3.4% 3.4
5-15 8.3% 8.3
4-16 17.3% 17.3
3-17 22.7% 22.7
2-18 24.5% 24.5
1-19 16.6% 16.6
0-20 5.8% 5.8
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.9%