UC Riverside
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#168
Expected Predictive Rating+5.4#91
Pace67.1#216
Improvement+1.3#124

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#168
First Shot-0.8#199
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#113
Layup/Dunks-3.7#309
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#23
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#170
Freethrows-1.0#246
Improvement+2.2#64

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#192
First Shot-0.6#195
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#195
Layups/Dunks-2.6#280
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#303
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#72
Freethrows+0.9#115
Improvement-0.9#232
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 4.0% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.9 13.1
.500 or above 95.9% 97.8% 88.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.3% 99.3% 93.9%
Conference Champion 1.2% 1.5% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round3.7% 4.0% 2.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Home) - 80.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 24 - 24 - 7
Quad 35 - 49 - 10
Quad 49 - 319 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 39   @ Oregon L 76-91 9%     0 - 1 -0.5 +9.2 -9.5
  Nov 08, 2024 32   @ BYU L 80-86 8%     0 - 2 +9.9 +8.0 +2.3
  Nov 12, 2024 159   @ California Baptist W 70-69 39%     1 - 2 +3.8 +1.6 +2.3
  Nov 19, 2024 69   @ Santa Clara L 54-96 15%     1 - 3 -31.2 -13.3 -19.0
  Nov 22, 2024 79   @ Colorado St. W 77-75 OT 17%     2 - 3 +11.9 +2.6 +9.1
  Nov 24, 2024 327   Alcorn St. W 69-52 88%     3 - 3 +4.2 -6.3 +11.3
  Nov 30, 2024 239   @ Idaho L 68-80 58%     3 - 4 -14.1 -1.7 -13.7
  Dec 05, 2024 139   @ Cal St. Northridge W 68-64 34%     4 - 4 1 - 0 +8.1 -3.0 +11.0
  Dec 07, 2024 309   Cal St. Fullerton W 75-68 85%     5 - 4 2 - 0 -4.1 -1.3 -2.7
  Dec 18, 2024 189   Montana St. W 83-80 64%     6 - 4 -0.8 +13.0 -13.6
  Dec 21, 2024 98   @ UNLV L 53-66 24%     6 - 5 -5.6 -10.5 +3.4
  Dec 29, 2024 133   St. Thomas W 81-79 OT 53%     7 - 5 +1.2 -4.1 +5.1
  Jan 02, 2025 290   @ Long Beach St. W 76-60 67%     8 - 5 3 - 0 +11.2 +5.3 +7.2
  Jan 04, 2025 65   @ UC Irvine L 57-81 15%     8 - 6 3 - 1 -12.9 -4.5 -9.0
  Jan 09, 2025 190   Hawaii L 76-83 64%     8 - 7 3 - 2 -10.8 -1.4 -9.1
  Jan 16, 2025 170   @ UC Santa Barbara L 63-66 41%     8 - 8 3 - 3 -0.9 -3.4 +2.3
  Jan 18, 2025 67   UC San Diego W 85-81 28%     9 - 8 4 - 3 +9.8 +14.0 -4.2
  Jan 23, 2025 65   UC Irvine W 84-80 OT 28%     10 - 8 5 - 3 +10.0 +6.8 +2.6
  Jan 25, 2025 247   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 83-79 59%     11 - 8 6 - 3 +1.6 +15.8 -13.8
  Jan 30, 2025 224   UC Davis W 60-58 71%     12 - 8 7 - 3 -3.8 -0.3 -3.2
  Feb 01, 2025 268   Cal Poly W 84-76 80%    
  Feb 06, 2025 67   @ UC San Diego L 65-76 15%    
  Feb 08, 2025 247   Cal St. Bakersfield W 75-68 77%    
  Feb 13, 2025 224   @ UC Davis W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 15, 2025 170   UC Santa Barbara W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 20, 2025 290   Long Beach St. W 75-65 83%    
  Feb 22, 2025 268   @ Cal Poly W 81-78 61%    
  Feb 28, 2025 190   @ Hawaii L 70-71 43%    
  Mar 06, 2025 139   Cal St. Northridge W 77-76 56%    
  Mar 08, 2025 309   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 73-67 70%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.7 2.9 0.3 11.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 8.8 18.0 17.6 7.4 0.9 54.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 6.2 9.7 5.5 0.7 23.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 3.7 1.0 0.1 7.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.6 6th
7th 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.7 11.7 19.5 24.2 21.0 12.4 4.3 0.5 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 46.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 14.1% 0.6    0.1 0.4 0.1
15-5 2.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0
14-6 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.5% 18.5% 18.5% 11.4 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-4 4.3% 10.6% 10.6% 12.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.9
15-5 12.4% 6.7% 6.7% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 11.6
14-6 21.0% 5.2% 5.2% 13.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 19.9
13-7 24.2% 3.4% 3.4% 13.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 23.3
12-8 19.5% 1.6% 1.6% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 19.2
11-9 11.7% 0.3% 0.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 11.6
10-10 4.7% 0.2% 0.2% 14.0 0.0 4.6
9-11 1.4% 1.4
8-12 0.3% 0.3
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 12.9 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.7 0.1 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%