St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.9#14
Expected Predictive Rating+18.3#11
Pace72.8#64
Improvement+0.2#179

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#72
First Shot+0.6#150
After Offensive Rebound+4.1#14
Layup/Dunks+1.4#136
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#17
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#306
Freethrows-1.0#246
Improvement-3.0#316

Defense
Total Defense+13.2#1
First Shot+13.2#1
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#186
Layups/Dunks+4.3#48
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#62
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#23
Freethrows+2.9#26
Improvement+3.2#36
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 4.9% 6.3% 1.2%
Top 2 Seed 19.7% 24.7% 6.0%
Top 4 Seed 64.0% 71.5% 43.2%
Top 6 Seed 91.0% 94.6% 81.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 99.9% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 99.9% 99.8%
Average Seed 4.0 3.7 4.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 98.6% 99.8% 95.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round99.9% 99.9% 99.9%
Second Round88.7% 90.9% 82.8%
Sweet Sixteen52.7% 55.5% 45.1%
Elite Eight24.7% 26.7% 19.4%
Final Four11.5% 12.4% 8.9%
Championship Game4.8% 5.2% 3.9%
National Champion1.9% 2.1% 1.4%

Next Game: Connecticut (Home) - 73.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 22 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 5
Quad 210 - 015 - 6
Quad 37 - 022 - 6
Quad 46 - 028 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 204   Fordham W 92-60 97%     1 - 0 +27.1 +10.8 +14.5
  Nov 09, 2024 189   Quinnipiac W 96-73 97%     2 - 0 +18.8 +12.0 +4.1
  Nov 13, 2024 347   Wagner W 66-45 99%     3 - 0 +5.8 -5.6 +13.3
  Nov 17, 2024 38   New Mexico W 85-71 78%     4 - 0 +23.9 +19.1 +4.9
  Nov 21, 2024 24   Baylor L 98-99 2OT 60%     4 - 1 +14.4 +9.0 +5.6
  Nov 22, 2024 93   Virginia W 80-55 88%     5 - 1 +30.2 +18.6 +14.5
  Nov 24, 2024 44   Georgia L 63-66 73%     5 - 2 +8.6 -0.9 +9.4
  Nov 30, 2024 251   Harvard W 77-64 98%     6 - 2 +5.4 +1.6 +3.9
  Dec 07, 2024 56   Kansas St. W 88-71 82%     7 - 2 +25.0 +12.5 +11.1
  Dec 11, 2024 161   Bryant W 99-77 96%     8 - 2 +19.5 +14.6 +2.6
  Dec 17, 2024 120   DePaul W 89-61 94%     9 - 2 1 - 0 +28.0 +17.1 +11.1
  Dec 20, 2024 79   @ Providence W 72-70 78%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +11.8 +0.8 +10.9
  Dec 28, 2024 244   Delaware W 97-76 98%     11 - 2 +14.0 +12.0 +0.9
  Dec 31, 2024 31   @ Creighton L 56-57 53%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +16.0 -3.8 +19.8
  Jan 04, 2025 66   Butler W 70-62 87%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +13.8 -9.8 +22.7
  Jan 07, 2025 42   @ Xavier W 82-72 63%     13 - 3 4 - 1 +24.5 +10.2 +13.5
  Jan 11, 2025 43   Villanova W 80-68 79%     14 - 3 5 - 1 +21.2 +14.7 +7.4
  Jan 14, 2025 73   Georgetown W 63-58 88%     15 - 3 6 - 1 +10.2 -3.0 +13.4
  Jan 18, 2025 167   @ Seton Hall W 79-51 92%     16 - 3 7 - 1 +30.2 +9.6 +20.3
  Jan 22, 2025 42   Xavier W 79-71 OT 79%     17 - 3 8 - 1 +17.4 +6.2 +10.7
  Jan 28, 2025 73   @ Georgetown W 66-41 76%     18 - 3 9 - 1 +35.3 +1.9 +33.8
  Feb 01, 2025 79   Providence W 68-66 89%     19 - 3 10 - 1 +6.7 -5.9 +12.5
  Feb 04, 2025 29   Marquette W 70-64 71%     20 - 3 11 - 1 +18.2 +5.9 +12.5
  Feb 07, 2025 32   @ Connecticut W 68-62 55%     21 - 3 12 - 1 +22.7 +1.8 +21.0
  Feb 12, 2025 43   @ Villanova L 71-73 63%     21 - 4 12 - 2 +12.3 +12.4 -0.3
  Feb 16, 2025 31   Creighton W 79-73 72%     22 - 4 13 - 2 +17.9 +9.2 +8.5
  Feb 19, 2025 120   @ DePaul W 82-58 88%     23 - 4 14 - 2 +29.1 +13.3 +16.3
  Feb 23, 2025 32   Connecticut W 73-67 73%    
  Feb 26, 2025 66   @ Butler W 77-70 73%    
  Mar 01, 2025 167   Seton Hall W 75-54 98%    
  Mar 08, 2025 29   @ Marquette W 71-70 51%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 3.3 23.1 44.7 27.5 98.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 4.6 23.1 44.7 27.5 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 27.5    27.5
17-3 100.0% 44.7    44.7
16-4 100.0% 23.1    16.9 6.2
15-5 71.8% 3.3    0.6 1.7 1.0
14-6 23.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 98.6% 98.6 89.7 7.9 1.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 27.5% 100.0% 42.6% 57.4% 2.7 3.8 9.2 7.4 5.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-3 44.7% 100.0% 36.2% 63.8% 4.0 1.0 5.1 11.0 13.2 8.3 4.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 23.1% 99.8% 32.6% 67.2% 5.2 0.1 0.5 2.3 5.1 5.2 5.4 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-5 4.6% 99.3% 30.6% 68.8% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 99.1%
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.9% 36.9% 63.0% 4.0 4.9 14.8 20.8 23.5 15.9 11.2 6.2 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.1 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.7% 100.0% 2.0 26.1 52.3 18.4 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.8% 100.0% 2.9 8.3 28.5 32.6 23.1 7.0 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.0% 100.0% 3.3 4.0 18.3 36.7 28.1 10.7 1.6 0.6