Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.9#349
Expected Predictive Rating-4.6#248
Pace63.3#328
Improvement+0.9#85

Offense
Total Offense-5.5#326
First Shot-7.3#348
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#88
Layup/Dunks+4.2#57
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#190
3 Pt Jumpshots-10.8#362
Freethrows-0.4#206
Improvement+0.1#160

Defense
Total Defense-7.3#356
First Shot-5.9#330
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#282
Layups/Dunks+2.4#105
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#43
3 Pt Jumpshots-11.0#361
Freethrows+0.4#156
Improvement+0.9#62
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 3.2% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2.2% 11.8% 2.0%
.500 or above in Conference 41.5% 60.3% 41.3%
Conference Champion 1.8% 5.4% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 6.7% 3.5% 6.8%
First Four1.8% 2.9% 1.8%
First Round0.8% 1.0% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington (Away) - 1.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 30 - 40 - 13
Quad 48 - 109 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 55   @ Utah L 59-100 2%     0 - 1 -28.8 -4.6 -26.6
  Nov 06, 2024 45   @ Utah St. L 46-101 2%     0 - 2 -41.9 -22.7 -19.3
  Nov 11, 2024 146   @ Tulane L 51-84 7%     0 - 3 -29.1 -15.8 -16.2
  Nov 19, 2024 61   @ TCU L 48-71 2%     0 - 4 -11.2 -14.5 +1.7
  Nov 22, 2024 83   @ Washington L 60-83 1%    
  Nov 24, 2024 202   @ UC Riverside L 63-77 10%    
  Nov 29, 2024 198   @ South Alabama L 62-76 10%    
  Dec 01, 2024 30   @ Maryland L 54-83 0.4%   
  Dec 04, 2024 94   @ Wichita St. L 60-81 2%    
  Dec 07, 2024 51   @ Oklahoma L 56-81 1%    
  Dec 16, 2024 172   @ Rice L 60-75 9%    
  Dec 22, 2024 103   @ UAB L 61-81 3%    
  Jan 04, 2025 319   Jackson St. L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 11, 2025 345   Alabama A&M W 71-68 59%    
  Jan 13, 2025 282   Alabama St. L 65-69 37%    
  Jan 18, 2025 261   @ Texas Southern L 63-74 17%    
  Jan 20, 2025 348   @ Prairie View L 73-76 39%    
  Jan 25, 2025 356   Florida A&M W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 27, 2025 287   Bethune-Cookman L 68-71 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 266   @ Southern L 63-73 18%    
  Feb 03, 2025 234   @ Grambling St. L 59-71 15%    
  Feb 08, 2025 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 79-73 71%    
  Feb 10, 2025 364   Mississippi Valley W 71-60 83%    
  Feb 15, 2025 287   @ Bethune-Cookman L 65-74 21%    
  Feb 17, 2025 356   @ Florida A&M L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 22, 2025 319   @ Jackson St. L 66-73 27%    
  Mar 01, 2025 348   Prairie View W 76-73 60%    
  Mar 03, 2025 261   Texas Southern L 66-71 35%    
  Mar 06, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 68-63 67%    
  Mar 08, 2025 362   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 76-75 52%    
Projected Record 8 - 22 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.4 1.5 0.2 7.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 4.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.3 3.1 0.4 0.0 11.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.9 3.9 0.6 0.0 13.1 7th
8th 0.2 2.4 5.9 4.3 0.7 0.0 13.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.3 4.0 0.9 0.0 12.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.2 3.1 0.8 0.0 10.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.1 2.0 0.5 0.0 7.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.5 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.4 6.0 8.7 11.5 13.3 13.6 12.5 10.3 8.0 5.3 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 90.8% 0.2    0.2 0.1
15-3 68.8% 0.5    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 36.4% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.6% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 18.4% 18.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.7% 14.3% 14.3% 16.0 0.1 0.6
14-4 1.5% 10.2% 10.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 1.4
13-5 3.0% 9.4% 9.4% 16.0 0.3 2.7
12-6 5.3% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.3 5.0
11-7 8.0% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.3 7.7
10-8 10.3% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 10.0
9-9 12.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 12.3
8-10 13.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 13.5
7-11 13.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.2
6-12 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.5
5-13 8.7% 8.7
4-14 6.0% 6.0
3-15 3.4% 3.4
2-16 1.5% 1.5
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.9 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%