Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#246
Expected Predictive Rating-13.6#331
Pace69.4#173
Improvement+0.0#181

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#222
First Shot+0.4#168
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#293
Layup/Dunks-6.6#340
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#197
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#182
Freethrows+7.2#3
Improvement+0.3#130

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#256
First Shot-7.2#349
After Offensive Rebounds+4.6#14
Layups/Dunks-6.3#346
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#278
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#28
Freethrows-5.6#356
Improvement-0.3#232
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 4.4% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 15.0 15.3
.500 or above 35.1% 38.9% 16.3%
.500 or above in Conference 49.9% 52.7% 36.6%
Conference Champion 4.0% 4.4% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 6.8% 5.9% 11.4%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
First Round3.7% 4.0% 2.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Home) - 83.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 410 - 712 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 223   @ Georgia St. L 66-71 34%     0 - 1 -5.1 -4.8 -0.5
  Nov 13, 2024 64   @ Dayton L 69-77 8%     0 - 2 +3.5 +2.0 +1.6
  Nov 16, 2024 180   Indiana St. L 84-94 49%     0 - 3 -14.0 -2.5 -10.2
  Nov 20, 2024 338   Detroit Mercy W 77-67 83%    
  Nov 25, 2024 199   Eastern Kentucky L 74-76 41%    
  Nov 27, 2024 197   Richmond L 68-70 41%    
  Dec 08, 2024 269   @ SIU Edwardsville L 69-71 44%    
  Dec 14, 2024 335   @ Bellarmine W 72-69 62%    
  Dec 21, 2024 300   Evansville W 77-71 71%    
  Jan 04, 2025 123   @ Kent St. L 65-75 18%    
  Jan 07, 2025 228   Miami (OH) W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 11, 2025 264   Bowling Green W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 14, 2025 156   @ Ohio L 72-79 26%    
  Jan 18, 2025 138   Toledo L 75-78 40%    
  Jan 21, 2025 202   @ Central Michigan L 67-72 32%    
  Jan 25, 2025 293   @ Northern Illinois L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 28, 2025 319   Western Michigan W 77-70 74%    
  Feb 01, 2025 330   @ Buffalo W 77-74 59%    
  Feb 04, 2025 139   @ Akron L 68-77 23%    
  Feb 11, 2025 301   Eastern Michigan W 72-66 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 293   Northern Illinois W 75-69 68%    
  Feb 18, 2025 138   @ Toledo L 72-81 23%    
  Feb 22, 2025 330   Buffalo W 80-71 77%    
  Feb 25, 2025 139   Akron L 71-74 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 264   @ Bowling Green L 73-75 43%    
  Mar 04, 2025 202   Central Michigan W 70-69 52%    
  Mar 07, 2025 228   @ Miami (OH) L 70-74 36%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.0 1.6 0.1 0.0 9.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.0 4.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.6 2.7 0.2 11.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 5.3 3.3 0.5 11.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.0 3.6 0.6 0.0 11.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.4 3.5 0.6 0.0 10.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.4 2.9 0.7 0.0 8.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.2 1.8 0.6 0.0 6.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.7 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.7 4.6 7.1 9.8 11.6 12.5 12.8 11.5 9.2 7.0 4.7 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 98.4% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-2 91.9% 0.6    0.5 0.1
15-3 73.1% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 47.4% 1.3    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 16.0% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 40.3% 40.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.6% 29.0% 29.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.4% 23.1% 23.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0
14-4 2.7% 18.1% 18.1% 14.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.2
13-5 4.7% 13.9% 13.9% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 4.0
12-6 7.0% 9.5% 9.5% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 6.4
11-7 9.2% 6.9% 6.9% 15.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 8.5
10-8 11.5% 4.5% 4.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 10.9
9-9 12.8% 2.9% 2.9% 15.9 0.1 0.3 12.4
8-10 12.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 12.4
7-11 11.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.6
6-12 9.8% 9.8
5-13 7.1% 7.1
4-14 4.6% 4.6
3-15 2.7% 2.7
2-16 1.1% 1.1
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.6 95.9 0.0%