Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#261
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#220
Pace64.6#299
Improvement+0.5#151

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#302
First Shot-5.9#325
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#112
Layup/Dunks-2.9#272
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#115
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.8#350
Freethrows+3.6#32
Improvement-0.7#250

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#205
First Shot-1.6#223
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#139
Layups/Dunks+1.8#124
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#78
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#333
Freethrows+0.0#184
Improvement+1.2#72
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.9 14.9
.500 or above 6.1% 7.6% 2.0%
.500 or above in Conference 17.1% 20.8% 7.1%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 21.1% 13.9% 41.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Home) - 73.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 9
Quad 33 - 73 - 16
Quad 47 - 510 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 95   @ Grand Canyon L 79-89 10%     0 - 1 -1.4 +5.6 -6.5
  Nov 08, 2024 99   @ Stanford L 53-80 10%     0 - 2 -18.6 -11.3 -10.1
  Nov 13, 2024 82   @ Colorado L 53-83 9%     0 - 3 -20.6 -12.3 -9.7
  Nov 15, 2024 74   @ Oregon St. L 51-70 8%     0 - 4 -8.6 -9.9 -1.2
  Nov 18, 2024 230   Idaho St. W 62-61 54%     1 - 4 -5.6 -4.4 -1.1
  Nov 22, 2024 19   @ UCLA L 47-80 3%     1 - 5 -15.3 -11.8 -5.6
  Nov 26, 2024 257   @ Pepperdine W 72-63 37%     2 - 5 +6.8 +5.5 +2.2
  Nov 30, 2024 276   @ Pacific L 55-64 41%     2 - 6 -12.2 -13.1 +0.1
  Dec 05, 2024 324   Long Beach St. W 68-61 74%    
  Dec 07, 2024 200   @ UC Riverside L 65-72 26%    
  Dec 15, 2024 335   Denver W 74-66 76%    
  Dec 22, 2024 203   Wyoming L 66-67 47%    
  Jan 02, 2025 146   Cal St. Northridge L 70-73 38%    
  Jan 04, 2025 107   UC San Diego L 63-69 27%    
  Jan 09, 2025 216   @ UC Davis L 65-71 30%    
  Jan 11, 2025 175   Hawaii L 65-67 42%    
  Jan 16, 2025 54   @ UC Irvine L 57-75 5%    
  Jan 18, 2025 324   @ Long Beach St. W 65-64 52%    
  Jan 23, 2025 242   Cal St. Bakersfield W 66-64 57%    
  Jan 25, 2025 115   UC Santa Barbara L 65-71 30%    
  Feb 02, 2025 175   @ Hawaii L 62-70 24%    
  Feb 06, 2025 146   @ Cal St. Northridge L 67-76 20%    
  Feb 08, 2025 216   UC Davis L 67-68 50%    
  Feb 13, 2025 225   Cal Poly W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 15, 2025 242   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 63-67 36%    
  Feb 20, 2025 115   @ UC Santa Barbara L 62-74 15%    
  Feb 27, 2025 54   UC Irvine L 60-72 14%    
  Mar 01, 2025 107   @ UC San Diego L 60-72 14%    
  Mar 06, 2025 225   @ Cal Poly L 72-77 32%    
  Mar 08, 2025 200   UC Riverside L 68-69 46%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 2.8 1.9 0.4 0.0 6.5 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 4.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.3 1.9 4.7 3.8 0.6 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.0 5.9 4.2 0.8 0.0 14.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.9 7.3 4.5 0.9 0.0 17.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.1 6.5 3.7 0.8 0.0 18.8 10th
11th 0.2 1.2 3.0 3.9 3.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 13.6 11th
Total 0.2 1.2 3.4 6.2 9.5 12.6 14.6 13.3 11.6 10.3 7.0 4.7 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 0.0%
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 59.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 23.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.1% 3.2% 3.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.3% 7.4% 7.4% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-6 0.7% 9.5% 9.5% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
13-7 1.5% 3.4% 3.4% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
12-8 2.8% 1.9% 1.9% 14.6 0.0 0.0 2.7
11-9 4.7% 1.7% 1.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.6
10-10 7.0% 0.7% 0.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 7.0
9-11 10.3% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 10.3
8-12 11.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.5
7-13 13.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.3
6-14 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.6
5-15 12.6% 12.6
4-16 9.5% 9.5
3-17 6.2% 6.2
2-18 3.4% 3.4
1-19 1.2% 1.2
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%