Chattanooga
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#168
Expected Predictive Rating-2.1#216
Pace69.5#173
Improvement+1.7#42

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#162
First Shot+0.9#139
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#198
Layup/Dunks+1.5#125
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#269
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#64
Freethrows-2.8#315
Improvement+1.8#18

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#206
First Shot-2.7#271
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#80
Layups/Dunks+1.9#115
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#186
Freethrows-0.5#210
Improvement-0.1#206
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.0% 12.9% 8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 70.9% 75.7% 49.7%
.500 or above in Conference 75.8% 78.3% 64.6%
Conference Champion 13.9% 15.1% 8.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.1% 3.0%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.7%
First Round11.8% 12.6% 7.8%
Second Round0.9% 1.1% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Home) - 81.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 9
Quad 414 - 417 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 79   @ USC L 51-77 16%     0 - 1 -15.7 -15.6 -1.6
  Nov 07, 2024 41   @ St. Mary's L 74-86 9%     0 - 2 +2.0 +12.9 -12.0
  Nov 11, 2024 236   @ Austin Peay L 61-67 51%     0 - 3 -6.8 -7.6 +0.3
  Nov 14, 2024 267   Morehead St. W 76-62 78%     1 - 3 +5.5 +0.3 +5.0
  Nov 17, 2024 313   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 87-82 68%     2 - 3 -0.4 +1.8 -2.8
  Nov 25, 2024 298   Tennessee St. W 79-69 82%    
  Nov 27, 2024 175   Bryant W 81-78 62%    
  Dec 03, 2024 151   Lipscomb W 77-75 58%    
  Dec 12, 2024 301   @ Evansville W 77-73 63%    
  Dec 15, 2024 345   Alabama A&M W 81-66 91%    
  Dec 21, 2024 26   @ Indiana L 66-83 6%    
  Jan 01, 2025 248   @ Mercer W 74-73 53%    
  Jan 04, 2025 320   @ The Citadel W 72-67 69%    
  Jan 09, 2025 162   UNC Greensboro W 71-68 59%    
  Jan 11, 2025 344   VMI W 84-69 91%    
  Jan 15, 2025 200   Wofford W 74-69 65%    
  Jan 18, 2025 132   @ Furman L 72-77 32%    
  Jan 22, 2025 127   Samford W 82-81 51%    
  Jan 25, 2025 186   @ East Tennessee St. L 73-75 41%    
  Jan 29, 2025 257   @ Western Carolina W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 248   Mercer W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 05, 2025 200   @ Wofford L 71-72 44%    
  Feb 08, 2025 132   Furman W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 12, 2025 127   @ Samford L 78-84 31%    
  Feb 15, 2025 186   East Tennessee St. W 76-72 62%    
  Feb 19, 2025 257   Western Carolina W 74-67 74%    
  Feb 22, 2025 320   The Citadel W 75-64 84%    
  Feb 27, 2025 162   @ UNC Greensboro L 68-71 38%    
  Mar 01, 2025 344   @ VMI W 81-72 78%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 2.2 3.7 3.9 2.3 0.8 0.2 13.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.7 5.3 3.0 0.6 0.1 15.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.9 5.9 2.0 0.2 15.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 6.0 5.5 1.6 0.1 14.8 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 5.1 4.8 1.2 0.1 13.1 5th
6th 0.2 1.4 4.2 3.9 0.9 0.1 10.7 6th
7th 0.2 1.5 3.3 2.6 0.5 8.1 7th
8th 0.2 1.2 2.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.3 4.5 6.6 9.1 11.2 13.3 14.0 12.9 9.6 6.8 4.5 2.5 0.8 0.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8
16-2 95.7% 2.3    2.1 0.2 0.0
15-3 86.0% 3.9    3.0 0.8 0.1
14-4 54.5% 3.7    1.9 1.6 0.2
13-5 23.4% 2.2    0.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.5% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.9% 13.9 8.7 4.0 1.0 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 59.7% 59.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.8% 46.3% 46.3% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4
16-2 2.5% 37.9% 37.9% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 1.5
15-3 4.5% 30.6% 30.6% 13.4 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 3.2
14-4 6.8% 25.9% 25.9% 13.7 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.1
13-5 9.6% 19.2% 19.2% 14.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.0 7.8
12-6 12.9% 14.6% 14.6% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.3 11.0
11-7 14.0% 11.2% 11.2% 14.8 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 12.4
10-8 13.3% 7.6% 7.6% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 12.3
9-9 11.2% 5.4% 5.4% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 10.6
8-10 9.1% 3.2% 3.2% 15.8 0.0 0.3 8.9
7-11 6.6% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.5
6-12 4.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.4
5-13 2.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-14 1.0% 1.0
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.4 4.0 3.1 1.6 88.0 0.0%