Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#211
Expected Predictive Rating-14.7#340
Pace66.0#272
Improvement-2.1#346

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#241
First Shot+0.6#155
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#322
Layup/Dunks+1.1#137
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#195
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#109
Freethrows-2.2#292
Improvement+0.6#99

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#167
First Shot+0.1#172
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#192
Layups/Dunks+2.7#97
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#149
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#211
Freethrows-2.6#309
Improvement-2.7#361
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.2 14.1
.500 or above 6.5% 11.3% 3.3%
.500 or above in Conference 14.5% 19.5% 11.3%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 32.6% 26.4% 36.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Neutral) - 39.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 34 - 96 - 17
Quad 43 - 39 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 152   Lipscomb L 72-77 51%     0 - 1 -7.6 -8.5 +1.3
  Nov 08, 2024 109   Princeton L 68-75 27%     0 - 2 -3.0 -6.6 +3.8
  Nov 15, 2024 110   @ DePaul L 58-84 19%     0 - 3 -19.0 -5.0 -17.6
  Nov 19, 2024 212   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74-80 62%     0 - 4 -11.4 -2.6 -8.9
  Nov 24, 2024 153   South Dakota St. L 71-74 39%    
  Dec 03, 2024 180   St. Peter's W 64-62 56%    
  Dec 06, 2024 216   Delaware W 73-70 62%    
  Dec 11, 2024 236   Maine W 66-62 65%    
  Dec 14, 2024 129   Towson L 62-67 34%    
  Dec 21, 2024 59   UC Irvine L 64-72 22%    
  Dec 31, 2024 113   Rhode Island L 73-76 39%    
  Jan 04, 2025 131   @ Davidson L 64-71 26%    
  Jan 08, 2025 99   Saint Joseph's L 68-73 35%    
  Jan 15, 2025 143   @ George Washington L 70-76 29%    
  Jan 18, 2025 115   St. Bonaventure L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 21, 2025 60   Dayton L 63-71 23%    
  Jan 26, 2025 162   @ Fordham L 67-72 33%    
  Jan 29, 2025 99   @ Saint Joseph's L 65-76 18%    
  Feb 01, 2025 128   Massachusetts L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 05, 2025 201   @ Richmond L 65-68 38%    
  Feb 08, 2025 104   Loyola Chicago L 67-71 37%    
  Feb 15, 2025 60   @ Dayton L 60-74 11%    
  Feb 19, 2025 162   Fordham W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 22, 2025 115   @ St. Bonaventure L 63-72 22%    
  Feb 26, 2025 121   @ La Salle L 64-72 24%    
  Mar 01, 2025 92   George Mason L 65-70 33%    
  Mar 04, 2025 50   Virginia Commonwealth L 63-72 22%    
  Mar 08, 2025 100   @ Saint Louis L 68-78 19%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.2 0.7 0.0 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 1.8 0.1 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.7 3.1 0.6 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.6 1.7 0.1 6.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.8 3.5 0.4 0.0 8.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 3.6 5.0 1.2 0.0 10.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.8 3.6 5.6 2.5 0.2 0.0 12.7 13th
14th 0.2 1.5 4.7 6.7 3.3 0.4 0.0 16.8 14th
15th 1.4 4.2 6.8 6.2 3.0 0.5 0.0 22.1 15th
Total 1.4 4.4 8.4 11.7 13.9 13.8 13.0 10.6 8.3 6.1 3.8 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 68.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 45.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 20.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 9.8% 9.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 8.4% 8.4% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.6% 7.6% 7.6% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-6 1.3% 5.2% 5.2% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
11-7 2.3% 1.9% 1.9% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
10-8 3.8% 1.8% 1.8% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
9-9 6.1% 1.0% 1.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1
8-10 8.3% 0.4% 0.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3
7-11 10.6% 0.3% 0.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.5
6-12 13.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.0
5-13 13.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.8
4-14 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.9
3-15 11.7% 11.7
2-16 8.4% 8.4
1-17 4.4% 4.4
0-18 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%